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1.
Source parameters of four strong earthquakes in Bulgaria and Portugal at the beginning of the 20th century 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Using original seismograph records and bulletin data we re-determined theorigin time, location, seismic moment (M0) and magnitudes(MS and Mw) for four earthquakes in the beginning of the20th century. These are two strong earthquakes April 4, 1904 nearKrupnik, Bulgaria (Mw = 6.8, MS = 7.2 respectively), the April 231909 earthquake near Benavente, Portugal (MS = 6.3), and the June14, 1913 earthquake near Gorna Orjahovitza, Bulgaria (MS = 6.3).Twenty-nine traces from original records have been analysed, a largenumber of original station bulletins have been consulted and a consistentmethodology for analysing these early 20th century instrumentalinformation is presented.In spite of a thorough effort in re-assembling and quality control of theoriginal data, large inaccuracies remain in the improved instrumentalepicentre locations and origin times. The seismic moment estimates weobtained (2.3 1018 M0 3.9 1019Nm) are the first ever determined for these events. The magnitudeestimates (6.3 MS 7.2 and 6.2 Mw 7.0) are robust and systematically lower than most of previousestimates for all earthquakes (Gutenberg and Richter, 1954; Christoskovand Grigorova, 1968; Karnik, 1969). For the largest Krupnik event ourestimates agree with those of Abe and Noguchi (1983b) and Pacheco andSykes (1992). The studied earthquakes all occur in moderately seismicactive regions, therefore our results may have significant consequences forhazard estimates in those regions. 相似文献
2.
Sergio G. Ferraes 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1992,139(2):309-329
A predictive equation to estimate the next interoccurrence time () for the next earthquake (M6) in the Ometepec segment is presented, based on Bayes' theorem and the Gaussian process.Bayes' theorem is used to relate the Gaussian process to both a log-normal distribution of recurrence times () and a log-normal distribution of magnitudes (M) (Nishenko andBuland, 1987;Lomnitz, 1964). We constructed two new random variablesX=InM andY=In with normal marginal densities, and based on the Gaussian process model we assume that their joint density is normal. Using this information, we determine the Bayesian conditional probability. Finally, a predictive equation is derived, based on the criterion of maximization of the Bayesian conditional probability. The model forecasts the next interoccurrence time, conditional on the magnitude of the last event.Realistic estimates of future damaging earthquakes are based on relocated historical earthquakes. However, at the present time there is a controversy between Nishenko-Singh and Gonzalez-Ruiz-Mc-Nally concerning the rupturing process of the 1907 earthquake. We use our Bayesian analysis to examine and discuss this very important controversy. To clarify to the full significance of the analysis, we put forward the results using two catalogues: (1) The Ometepec catalogue without the 1907 earthquake (González-Ruíz-McNally), and (2) the Ometepec catalogue including the 1907 earthquake (Nishenko-Singh).The comparison of the prediction error reveals that in the Nishenko-Singh catalogue, the errors are considerably smaller than the average error for the González-Ruíz-McNally catalogue of relocated events.Finally, using the Nishenko-Singh catalogue which locates the 1907 event inside the Ometepec segment, we conclude that the next expected damaging earthquake (M6.0) will occur approximately within the next time interval =11.82 years from the last event (which occurred on July 2, 1984), or equivalently will probably occur in April, 1996. 相似文献
3.
Arnaldo Belluigi 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1959,43(1):182-194
Riassunto Fino ad oggi sono apparse solo teorie elettrogeosmotiche transitorie unidimensionali. Quì risolviamo un problema del genere bidimensionale, con elettrodi verticali cilindrici. Le curve rappresentative delle portate d'acqua catodicaq
K
a cui perveniamo, denotano diminuzioni abbastanza rapide fino ai tempi dell' ordine dei «tempi elettrodici », (t=), portate che poi diminuiscono in modo molto lento. Si riscontrano quì più estesi «pianerottoli»q
K
che non quelli delle monodimensionalità (t=/9). Inoltre, col crescere dei rapporti distanze eteropolari-raggi catodici, o col diminuire dei raggi catodici, tali portate (che si compongono dei contributi dei singoli anodi) s'incrementano nel modo diagrammato.
Summary Till now only mono-dimensional transient electro-geoosmotical theories have been published. In this paper a solution is given for a problem of bi-dimensional type, with vertical cylindrical electrodes. The plots which represent the amounts of cathodic waterq K show quite rapid lowerings as far as to reach time durations of the order of «electrodic times » (t=) volumes which, after, diminish very slowly. In this case more extendedq K «lobbies» are found than those in mono-dimensional case (t=/9). Furthermore increasing the ratios heteropolar spacings—cathodic radii, or diminishing the cathodic radii, water discharges (which result from the contribution of the single anods) increase as plotted in the diagrams.相似文献
4.
Calibrating functions for determination of P-wave spectral magnitudes calculated by Duda and Yanovskaya (1994) on the basis of the IASP91 velocity model and the PREM Q-model are verified empirically. For this purpose IRIS broadband records for 120 earthquakes are used, each earthquake having been recorded at about 100 stations. The discrepancies indicate that anelastic absorption assumed in PREM is too high. New calibrating functions are calculated on the basis of the AK135 velocity and anelasticity models (Kennet et al., 1995; Montagner and Kennet, 1996), in which Q in the mantle is higher than in PREM. The verification of the new calibrating functions based on the same observations yields magnitude figures less depending on the epicentral distance. In addition the parameter 2in the Liu-Anderson Q(T) model is estimated, proceeding from the assumption that on the average the radiated spectra comply with the 2-model. The value of 2 was assumed to be 0.1 s in the analysis and its use resulted in the verification of the 2-model for the source spectrum. 相似文献
5.
Summary In this work the previous author's results concerning the geomagnetic effect of the interplanetary parameters in dependence on geomagnetic latitude are verified, complemented and presented with better accuracy. Data of 7 intensive storms recorded in 1973–79 at 5 observatories with slight differences in local time and with the appropriate latitude distribution limited by real possibilities have been analysed. Even in these cases the derived values of the constants determining the dependence of storm-time variations of the geomagnetic field upon both the dynamic pressure of the solar wind(P) and the interplanetary electric field(Ey) vary relatively regularly with geomagnetic latitude. The anomaly of Dst and DR-variations from the Almeria Observatory (AE) evident in some intensive storms is pointed out here. Unlike the previous work the time characteristics () of the ring current decay have been studied from the standpoint of the main (m) and recovery (r) phases of the storm. This yields higher values of r as compared to from the above mentioned work. On the other hand, a large decrease in the values of r was observed in some cases at a latitude of about 40°, as in the earlier study. Actually this phenomenon does not occur in all intensive storms as could be expected. As to the investigated storms, m seems to be independent of geomagnetic latitude and much lower in its magnitude than r. 相似文献
6.
B.C. Papazachos V.G. Karakostas A.A. Kiratzi B.N. Margaris C.B. Papazachos E.M. Scordilis 《Journal of Seismology》2002,6(4):557-570
Instrumental magnitudes in Greece have been reported as: a) Mmagnitudes based on the records of the Wiechert or Mainka seismographs,b) MLGR magnitudes based on the records of the Wood-Anderson(WA) seismographs (To = 0.8 sec, Veffective 1000) or othershort period seismographs calibrated against WA records and,c) MLSM magnitudes based on strong motion records(accelerograms). Comparison of such magnitudes with momentmagnitudes, Mw, for 329 earthquakes, with epicenters in thebroader Aegean area, performed in this study, showedthat M, MLGR+0.5 and MLSM are practically equalto Mw, with a small overall standard error ( = 0.23).Therefore, equivalent moment magnitudes, Mw
*,estimated from these magnitudes and reported in the catalogues of theGeophysical Laboratory of the University of Thessaloniki are equal tomoment magnitudes for all practical purposes with reasonable uncertainties.It has been further shown that surface wave magnitudes, Ms,for Ms <6.0, can be also transferred into momentmagnitudes, Mw
*, but the larger uncertaintiesencountered make its use rather problematic. 相似文献
7.
Lorenzo Casertano 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1982,120(4):840-849
The relationship between frequency and magnitude in homogeneous series of earthquakes is studied. The linear relation of Gutenberg and Richter between the logarithm of frequency and the magnitude is found to be applicable only in a restricted range of magnitudes.The plots of the cumulative number of earthquakes versus magnitude for 20 different series (the total number of events in a single series ranging from about 50 to more than 3000) clearly indicate the presence of vertical asymptotes. This fact suggests that upper and lower limits could exist for the magnitude of a single event, i.e. for the energy that can be released in an earthquake. From the position of the vertical asymptotes it is possible to obtain the upper and lower bounds of magnitude for each series of earthquakes. The empirical shape of the cumulative number-magnitude distribution can be well represented by equilateral hyperbolas. A least 2 method has been used to obtain the best-fitting hyperbolas and corresponding the minimum and maximum magnitudes for each series.The shape of the frequency-magnitude relationship is discussed in lesser detail. It is found, however, that after suitable rescaling the earthquakes in each series follow much the same law, with a comparatively small scatter. 相似文献
8.
Coulomb constitutive laws for friction: Contrasts in frictional behavior for distributed and localized shear 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
We describe slip-rate dependent friction laws based on the Coulomb failure criteria. Frictional rate dependence is attributed to a rate dependence of cohesionc and friction angle . We show that differences in the stress states developed during sliding result in different Coulomb friction laws for distributed shear within a thick gouge layer versus localized shear within a narrow shear band or between bare rock surfaces. For shear within gouge, shear strength is given by =c cos +
n
sin, whereas for shear between bare rock surfaces the shear strength is =c cos +
n
tan, where and
n
are shear and normal stress, respectively. In the context of rate-dependent Coulomb friction laws, these differences mean that for a given material and rate dependence of the Coulomb parameters, pervasive shear may exhibit velocity strengthening frictional behavior while localized shear exhibits velocity weakening behavior. We derive from experimental data the slip-rate dependence and evolution ofc and for distributed and localized shear. The data show a positive rate dependence for distributed shear and a negative rate dependence for localized shear, indicating that the rate dependence ofc and are not the same for distributed and localized shear, even after accounting for differences in stress state. Our analysis is consistent with the well-known association of instability with shear localization in simulated fault gouge and the observation that bare rock surfaces exhibit predominantly velocity weakening frictional behavior whereas simulated fault gouge exhibits velocity strengthening followed by a transition to velocity weakening with increasing displacement. Natural faults also exhibit displacement dependent frictional behavior and thus the results may prove useful in understanding the seismic evolution of faulting. 相似文献
9.
Scaling relations of moment magnitude,local magnitude,and duration magnitude for earthquakes originated in northeast India
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Dipok K. Bora 《地震科学(英文版)》2016,29(3):153-164
In this study, we aim to improve the scaling between the moment magnitude (M W), local magnitude (M L), and the duration magnitude (M D) for 162 earthquakes in Shillong-Mikir plateau and its adjoining region of northeast India by extending the M W estimates to lower magnitude earthquakes using spectral analysis of P-waves from vertical component seismograms. The M W-M L and M W-M D relationships are determined by linear regression analysis. It is found that, M W values can be considered consistent with M L and M D, within 0.1 and 0.2 magnitude units respectively, in 90 % of the cases. The scaling relationships investigated comply well with similar relationships in other regions in the world and in other seismogenic areas in the northeast India region. 相似文献
10.
In order to provide the tools for uniform size determination for Mediterranean earthquakes over the last 50-year period of instrumental seismology, we have regressed the magnitude determinations for 220 earthquakes of the European-Mediterranean region over the 1977–1991 period, reported by three international centres, 11 national and regional networks and 101 individual stations and observatories, using seismic moments from the Harvard CMTs. We calibrate M(M0) regression curves for the magnitude scales commonly used for Mediterranean earthquakes (ML, MWA, mb, MS, MLH, MLV, MD, M); we also calibrate static corrections or specific regressions for individual observatories and we verify the reliability of the reports of different organizations and observatories. Our analysis shows that the teleseismic magnitudes (mb, MS) computed by international centers (ISC, NEIC) provide good measures of earthquake size, with low standard deviations (0.17–0.23), allowing one to regress stable regional calibrations with respect to the seismic moment and to correct systematic biases such as the hypocentral depth for MS and the radiation pattern for mb; while mb is commonly reputed to be an inadequate measure of earthquake size, we find that the ISC mb is still today the most precise measure to use to regress MW and M0 for earthquakes of the European-Mediterranean region; few individual observatories report teleseismic magnitudes requiring specific dynamic calibrations (BJI, MOS). Regional surface-wave magnitudes (MLV, MLH) reported in Eastern Europe generally provide reliable measures of earthquake size, with standard deviations often in the 0.25–0.35 range; the introduction of a small (±0.1–0.2) static station correction is sometimes required. While the Richter magnitude ML is the measure of earthquake size most commonly reported in the press whenever an earthquake strikes, we find that ML has not been computed in the European-Mediterranean in the last 15 years; the reported local magnitudes MWA and ML do not conform to the Richter formula and are of poor quality and little use, with few exceptions requiring ad hoc calibrations similar to the MS regression (EMSC, ATH). The duration magnitude MD used by most seismic networks confirms that its use requires accurate station calibrations and should be restricted only to events with low seismic moments. 相似文献
11.
A. G. Prozorov 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1988,127(1):1-19
Aftershocks or swarms indicate increase of the flow intensity in the vicinity of the initial earthquakes. By normalizing their number according to the dynamic range of the standard frequency magnitude distribution the increase or positive aftereffect property of the initial earthquakes can be compared for different magnitude intervals, periods of time or regions. After applying accurate formal algorithm of aftershock identification it is possible to study negative aftereffect of the main events (nonaftershocks) in the catalog.Negative aftereffect means decrease of the probability of successive events in a time-space vicinity of the main event, when the aftershocks are over. The negative effect is the most important part of the seismic cycle and seismic gaps approach. Global statistical test give high confidence level for the relative decrease in intensity of the flow of the events withM7 in the first 20–25 years after the events withM8 in their 1o-vicinities in the total time period under study of approximately 60 years. The decrease approximates 32% of the undisturbed intensity of the flow ofM>7 events in the vicinities.Self-similar negative aftereffect was observed 3–7 years after 6M<7 events, it totals approximately 18% of the undisturbed intensity. Another type of self-similarity of seismic regime, with respect to the negative aftereffect, is the decrease of probabilities of aftershocks with large magnitudes in aftershock sequences. When we have adequate dynamic range in the catalog for the study of this property, for example, for main events withM7 in the catalog with low cut-off limitM=4, the statistical significance of the negative aftereffect is clear. However, the absolute value of the effect is also rather small, about 10%, which means that in 90% of the cases the aftershock sequences do not experience lack of energy due to the main shock energy release and follow a standard magnitude distribution for earthquakes in the entire catalog.The small values of the negative aftereffect apparently indicate partial stress relase by earthquakes and may explain short recurrence time intervals after major earthquakes observed periodically in different places. 相似文献
12.
A turbulent magnetic dynamo can be considered as the evolution of a vector field in a turbulent fluid flow. The problem of evolution of scalar fields (e.g., number density of small particles) in a turbulent fluid flow is similar to the turbulent magnetic dynamo. The dynamo instability results in generation of magnetic field. The most important effect which can cause a generation of mean magnetic field in a turbulent fluid flow is the -effect: = – (1/3) u · ( × u), where
u
is the turbulent velocity field with the correlation time . A similar instability in the passive scalar problem results in formation of large-scale inhomogeneous structures in a spatial distribution of particles due to the -effect: = up ( · up), where
u
p
is the random velocity field of the particles which they acquire in a turbulent fluid velocity field. The effect is caused by inertia of particles which results in divergent velocity field of the particles. This results in additional turbulent nondiffusive flux of particles.
The mean-field dynamics of inertial particles are studied by considering the stability of the equilibrium solution of the derived evolution equation for the mean number density of the particles in the limit of large Péclet numbers. The resulting equation is reduced to an eigenvalue problem for a Schrödinger equation with a variable mass, and a modified Rayleigh-Ritz variational method is used to estimate the lowest eigenvalue (corresponding to the growth rate of the instability). This estimate is in good agreement with obtained numerical solution of the Schrödinger equation. Similar effects arise during turbulent transport of gaseous admixtures (or light noninertial particles) in a low-Mach-number compressible fluid flow.
The discussed effects are important in planetary and atmospheric physics (cloud formation, pollutant dynamics, preferential concentration of particles in protoplanetary disks and also planetesimals in them). 相似文献
13.
The paper studies the effect of magnitude errors on heterogeneous catalogs, by applying the apparent magnitude theory (seeTinti andMulargia, 1985a), which proves to be the most natural and rigorous approach to the problem. Heterogeneities in seismic catalogs are due to a number of various sources and affect both instrumental as well as noninstrumental earthquake compilations.The most frequent basis of heterogeneity is certainly that the recent instrumental records are to be combined with the historic and prehistoric event listings to secure a time coverage, considerably longer than the recurrence time of the major earthquakes. Therefore the case which attracts the greatest attention in the present analysis is that of a catalog consisting of a subset of higher quality data, generallyS
1, spanning the interval T
1 (the instrumental catalog), and of a second subset of more uncertain magnitude determination, generallyS
2, covering a vastly longer interval T
2 (the historic and/or the geologic catalog). The magnitude threshold of the subcatalogS
1 is supposedly smaller than that ofS
2, which, as we will see, is one of the major causes of discrepancy between the apparent magnitude and the true magnitude distributions. We will further suppose that true magnitude occurrences conform to theGutenberg-Richter (GR) law, because the assumption simplified the analysis without reducing the relevancy of our findings.The main results are: 1) the apparent occurrence rate exceeds the true occurrence rate from a certain magnitude onward, saym
GR; 2) the apparent occurrence rate shows two distinct GR regimes separated by an intermediate transition region. The offset between the two regimes is the essential outcome ofS
1 being heterogeneous with respect toS
2. The most important consequences of this study are that: 1) it provides a basis to infer the parameters of the true magnitude distribution, by correcting the bias deriving from heterogeneous magnitude errors; 2) it demonstrates that the double GR decay, that several authors have taken as the incontestable proof of the failure of the GR law and of the experimental evidence of the characteristic earthquake theory, is instead perfectly consistent with a GR-type seismicity. 相似文献
14.
V. I. Bune N. A. Vvedenskaya I. V. Gorbunova K. K. Zapolsky N. V. Kondorskaya I. V. Fedorova 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1973,103(1):350-361
Summary Causes of inconsistency in magnitudes determined by broad-band and short-period instruments and by different systems of observations are elucidated. In so doing, both observations of standard stations of USSO of the USSR and those of Soviet frequency selecting seismic stations () are employed. On the basis of large statistic material of the stationare network of USSO, a dependence of spectral constitution ofP waves and frequency-temporal fields constructed for some earthquakes have been revealed as well as a dependence of magnitude values upon an arrival time of maximal particle velocity. It has been shown that the range of measuring (A/T)
max
should be enlarged at least to 15 sec. A conclusion is drawn that the most stable magnitude consistent with the Catalogue by Gutenberg is the one determined by medium-period instruments. 相似文献
15.
Summary The local magnitude ML at the seismological station Pruhonice (PRU) was converted into surface wave magnitude MS using the formula MS=–3.2+1.45 ML and the seismic wave energy was estimated using the relation log E (Joule)=1.2+2.0 ML. It was proposed to apply the same conversion formulae at seismological stations Kaperské Hory (KHC) and Berggiesshübel (BRG) where the calibrating functions for local magnitudes were determined for the same set of earthquakes with common reference magnitudes as in the case of the PRU station. 相似文献
16.
A. McGarr 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1994,142(3-4):467-489
Although laboratory stick-slip friction experiments have long been regarded as analogs to natural crustal earthquakes, the potential use of laboratory results for understanding the earthquake source mechanism has not been fully exploited because of essential difficulties in relating seismographic data to measurements made in the controlled laboratory environment. Mining-induced earthquakes, however, provide a means of calibrating the seismic data in terms of laboratory results because, in contrast to natural earthquakes, the causative forces as well as the hypocentral conditions are known. A comparison of stick-slip friction events in a large granite sample with mining-induced earthquakes in South Africa and Canada indicates both similarities and differences between the two phenomena. The physics of unstable fault slip appears to be largely the same for both types of events. For example, both laboratory and mining-induced earthquakes have very low seismic efficiencies
where
a
is the apparent stress and
is the average stress acting on the fault plane to cause slip; nearly all of the energy released by faulting is consumed in overcoming friction. In more detail, the mining-induced earthquakes differ from the laboratory events in the behavior of as a function of seismic momentM
0. Whereas for the laboratory events 0.06 independent ofM
0, depends quite strongly onM
0 for each set of induced earthquakes, with 0.06 serving, apparently, as an upper bound. It seems most likely that this observed scaling difference is due to variations in slip distribution over the fault plane. In the laboratory, a stick-slip event entails homogeneous slip over a fault of fixed area. For each set of induced earthquakes, the fault area appears to be approximately fixed but the slip is inhomogeneous due presumably to barriers (zones of no slip) distributed over the fault plane; at constant
, larger events correspond to larger
a
as a consequence of fewer barriers to slip. If the inequality
a
/
0.06 has general validity, then measurements of
a
=µE
a
/M
0, where is the modulus of rigidity andE
a
is the seismically-radiated energy, can be used to infer the absolute level of deviatoric stress at the hypocenter. 相似文献
17.
Source characteristics of the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake inferred from teleseismic body waves
We analyzed the broadband body waves of the 1992 Nicaragua earthquake to determine the nature of rupture. The rupture propagation was represented by the distribution of point sources with moment-rate functions at 9 grid points with uniform spacing of 20 km along the fault strike. The moment-rate functions were then parameterized, and the parameters were determined with the least squares method with some constraints. The centroid times of the individual moment-rate functions indicate slow and smooth rupture propagation at a velocity of 1.5 km/s toward NW and 1.0 km/s toward SE. Including a small initial break which precedes the main rupture by about 10 s, we obtained a total source duration of 110 s. The total seismic moment isM
o
=3.4×1020 Nm, which is consistent with the value determined from long-period surface waves,M
o
=3.7×1020 Nm. The average rise time of dislocation is determined to be 10 s. The major moment release occurred along a fault length of 160 km. With the assumption of a fault widthW=50 km, we obtained the dislocationD=1.3 m. From andD the dislocation velocity isD=D/0.1 m/s, significantly smaller than the typical value for ordinary earthquakes. The stress drop =1.1 MPa is also less than the typical value for subduction zone earthquakes by a factor of 2–3. On the other hand, the apparent stress defined by 2E
s
/M
o
, where andE
s
are respectively the rigidity and the seismic wave energy, is 0.037 MPa, more than an order of magnitude smaller than . The Nicaragua tsunami earthquake is characterized by the following three properties: 1) slow rupture propagation; 2) smooth rupture; 3) slow dislocation motion. 相似文献
18.
An investigation of analysis of variance as a tool for exploring regional differences in strong ground motions 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
The statistical technique known as analysis of variance is applied to a large set of European strong-motion data to investigate whether strong ground motions show a regional dependence. This question is important when selecting strong-motion records for the derivation of ground motion prediction equations and also when choosing strong-motion records from one geographical region for design purposes in another. Five regions with much strong-motion data (the Caucasus region, central Italy, Friuli, Greece and south Iceland) are investigated here. For the magnitude and distance range where there are overlapping data from the five areas (2.50 Ms 5.50, 0 d 35 km) and consequently analysis of variance can be performed, there is little evidence for a regional dependence of ground motions. There is a lack of data from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes (Ms > 5.5) so analysis of variance cannot be performed there. Since there is uncertainty regarding scaling ground motions from small to large magnitudes whether ground motions from large earthquakes are significantly different in different parts of Europe is not known. Analysis of variance has the ability to complement other techniques for the assessment of regional dependence of ground motions. 相似文献
19.
Radial velocity anomalies in the lower mantle that give rise to triplications in the travel-time curve for short-periodP waves will produce arrivals havingdT/d values that differe by roughly 0.2–0.5 s/deg. The first two arrivals associated with such triplications will be separated by less than one second over a distance range of 4°–10° they may not, therefore, be separable visually on single seismograms, so that their presence can only be inferred from some measurable property that depends on their mutual interference. If there are lateral variations in the regions of anomalous velocity gradients, the interfering signals will also have different azimuths of arrival. Using two synthetic wavelets we have investigated the effect of interference on bothdT/d and azimuth measurements at the Yellowknife Array. We found that if the interfering pulses have a dominant frequencyv, there is a range of time separations (0.30/v0.55/v) over which the measureddT/d and azimuth values may fluctuate by much more than the differences indT/d and azimuth between the interfering signals. We have evaluated the following empirically defined functions for three different primary signals, and for three different relative amplitudes of the interfering signals:f
(t), the drift function, which expresses how the measured slownesses,p, and azimuths, , differ from the slownesses and azimuths of the primary wavelets; f(), the range function, which describes the behaviour of the upper and lower bounds ofp and as a function of the difference in arrival times of the signals, andf
, studied the properties of these functions, and have outlined how these properties provide criteria based on the numerical and statistical characteristics of the arrival vectors, and on the waveform of the signal that will enable small radial velocity anomalies to be more clearly delineated.Contribution No. 863 from the Earth Physics Branch. 相似文献
20.
Sergio G. Ferraes 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1988,127(4):561-571
Bayes' theorem has possible application to earthquake prediction because it can be used to represent the dependence of the inter-arrival time (T) of thenext event on magnitude (M) of thepreceding earthquake (Ferraes, 1975;Bufe
et al., 1977;Shimazaki andNakata, 1980;Sykes andQuittmeyer, 1981). First, we derive the basic formulas, assuming that the earthquake process behaves as a Poisson process. Under this assumption the likelihood probabilities are determined by the Poisson distribution (Ferraes, 1985) after which we introduce the conjugate family of Gamma prior distributions. Finally, to maximize the posterior Bayesian probabilityP(/M) we use calculus and introduce the analytical condition
.Subsequently we estimate the occurrence of the next future large earthquake to be felt in Mexico City. Given the probabilistic model, the prediction is obtained from the data set that include all events withM7.5 felt in Mexico City from 1900 to 1985. These earthquakes occur in the Middle-America trench, along Mexico, but are felt in Mexico City. To see the full significance of the analysis, we give the result using two models: (1) The Poisson-Gamma, and (2) The Poisson-Exponential (a special case of the Gamma).Using the Poisson-Gamma model, the next expected event will occur in the next time interval =2.564 years from the last event (occurred on September 19, 1985) or equivalently, the expected event will occur approximately in April, 1988.Using the Poisson-Exponential model, the next expected damaging earthquake will occur in the next time interval =2.381 years from the last event, or equivalently in January, 1988.It should be noted that very strong agreement exists between the two predicted occurrence times, using both models. 相似文献