Borehole temperatures, climate change and the pre-observational surface air temperature mean: allowance for hydraulic conditions

Joint analysis of surface air temperature series recorded at weather stations together with the inversion of the temperature-depth profiles logged in the near-by boreholes enables an estimate of the conditions existing prior to the beginning of the meteorological observation, the so-called pre-observational mean (POM) temperature.Such analysis is based on the presumption of pure diffusive conditions in the underground. However, in real cases a certain subsurface fluid movement cannot be excluded and the measured temperature logs may contain an advective component. The paper addresses the correction for the hydraulic conditions, which may have perturbed the climate signal penetrating from the surface into the underground. The method accounts for vertical conductive and vertical advective heat transport in a 1-D horizontally layered stratum and provides a simultaneous evaluation of the POM-temperature together with the estimate of the Darcy fluid velocity. The correction strategy is illustrated on a synthetic example and its use is demonstrated on temperature logs measured in four closely spaced boreholes drilled near Tachlovice (located about 15 km SW of Prague, Czech Republic). The results revealed that in a case of moderately advectively affected subsurface conditions (fluid velocities about 10⁻⁹ m/s), the difference between POM-values assessed for a pure conductive approach and for combined vertical conductive/advective approach may amount up to 0.3–0.5 K, the value comparable with the amount usually ascribed to the 20th century climate warming.     

Climate change of the last millennium inferred from borehole temperatures: regional patterns of climatic changes in the Czech Republic — Part III

Accurate temperature–depth profiles may help to assess the temperature variations associated with the climate changes in the past. Ninety-eight ground surface temperature histories inverted from the temperature–depth borehole logs drilled on the territory of the Czech Republic [Bodri, L., ermák, V., 1995. Climate changes of the last millennium inferred from borehole temperatures: results from the Czech Republic — Part I. Global Planet. Change 11, pp. 111–125; Bodri, L., ermák, V., 1997. Climate changes of the last two millennia inferred from borehole temperatures: results from the Czech Republic — Part II. Global Planet. Change 14, pp. 163–173.] are used to reconstruct the regional patterns of the respective climate change. The climate was mapped for the following periods: 1100–1300 A.D. (Little Climatic Optimum), 1400–1500 A.D., 1600–1700 A.D. (main phase of the Little Ice Age), and for the most recent climate trend after year 1960. Comparison of the obtained maps with the meteorological observations and proxy climatic reconstructions confirmed good applicability of the “geothermal” paleoclimatic reconstructions for the regional studies.     

Climate variability and change in the drylands of Western North America

We argue that it is important to expand the consideration of climate in the context of provision of ecosystem services in drylands. In addition to climate change, it is necessary to include climate variability on timescales relevant to human and ecological considerations, namely interannual to decadal and multidecadal. The period of global instrumental record (about a century and a half long at the very most) is neither an adequate nor an unbiased sample of the range and character of natural climate variability that might be expected with the climate system configured as it is now. We base this on evidence from W. N. America, where there has recently been a major multi-year drought, of a scale and intensity that has occurred several times in the last 2000 years, and on attempts to provide explanations of these phenomena based on physical climatology. Ensembles of runs of forced climate system models suggest the next 50 years will bring much more extensive and intense drought in the continental interior of North America. The trajectory followed by the supply of ecosystem services will be contingent not only on the genotypes available and the antecedent soil, economic and social conditions but also on climate variability and change. The critical features of climate on which patterns of plant growth and water supply depend may vary sharply during and between human generations, resulting in very different experiences and hence, expectations.     

Elevation dependency of recent and future minimum surface air temperature trends in the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings

Elevation dependency of climate change signals has been found over major mountain ranges such as the European Alps and the Rockies, as well as over the Tibetan Plateau. In this study we examined the temporal trends in monthly mean minimum temperatures from 116 weather stations in the eastern Tibetan Plateau and its vicinity during 1961–2006. We also analyzed projected climate changes in the entire Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings from two sets of modeling experiments under future global warming conditions. These analyses included the output of the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) with approximately 150 km horizontal resolution for the scenario of annual 1% increase in atmospheric CO₂ for future 100 years and physically-based downscaling results from the NCAR CAM3/CLM3 model at 10' × 10' resolution during three 20-year mean periods (1980–1999, 2030–2049 and 2080–2099) for the IPCC mid-range emission (A1B) scenario. We divided the 116 weather stations and the regional model grids into elevation zones of 500 m interval to examine the relationship of climatic warming and elevation. With these corroborating datasets, we were able to confirm the elevation dependency in monthly mean minimum temperature in and around the Tibetan Plateau. The warming is more prominent at higher elevations than at lower elevations, especially during winter and spring seasons, and such a tendency may continue in future climate change scenarios. The elevation dependency is most likely caused by the combined effects of cloud-radiation and snow-albedo feedbacks among various influencing factors.     

The effect of upwelling on the distribution and stable isotope composition of Globigerina bulloides and Globigerinoides ruber (planktic foraminifera) in modern surface waters of the NW Arabian Sea

Hydrographic changes in the NW Arabian Sea are mainly controlled by the monsoon system. This results in a strong seasonal and vertical gradient in surface water properties, such as temperature, nutrients, carbonate chemistry and the isotopic composition of dissolved inorganic carbon (δ¹³C_DIC). Living specimens of the planktic foraminifer species Globigerina bulloides and Globigerinoides ruber, were collected using depth stratified plankton tows during the SW monsoon upwelling period in August 1992 and the NE monsoon non-upwelling period in March 1993. We compare their distribution and the stable isotope composition to the seawater properties of the two contrasting monsoon seasons. The oxygen isotope composition of the shells (δ¹⁸O_shell) and vertical shell concentration profiles indicate that the depth habitat for both species is shallower during upwelling (SW monsoon period) than during non-upwelling (NE monsoon period). The calcification temperatures suggest that most of the calcite is precipitated at a depth level just below the deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM), however above the main thermocline. Consequently, the average calcification temperature of G. ruber and G. bulloides is lower than the sea surface temperature by 1.7±0.8 and 1.3±0.9 °C, respectively. The carbon isotope composition of the shells (δ¹³C_shell) of both species differs from the in situ δ¹³C_DIC found at the calcification depths of the specimens. The observed offset between the δ¹³C_shell and the ambient δ¹³C_DIC results from (1) metabolic/ontogenetic effects, (2) the carbonate chemistry of the seawater and, for symbiotic G. ruber, (3) the possible effect of symbionts or symbiont activity. Ontogenetic effects produce size trends in Δδ¹³C_shell–DIC and Δδ¹⁸O_shell–w: large shells of G. bulloides (250–355μm) are 0.33‰ (δ¹³C) and 0.23‰ (δ¹⁸O) higher compared to smaller ones (150–250 μm). For G. ruber, this is 0.39‰ (δ¹³C) and 0.17‰ (δ¹⁸O). Our field study shows that the δ¹³C_shell decreases as a result of lower δ¹³C_DIC values in upwelled waters, while the effects of the carbonate system and/or temperature act in an opposite direction and increase the δ¹³C_shell as a result lower [CO₃²⁻] (or pH) values and/or lower temperature. The Δδ¹³C_shell–DIC [CO₃²⁻] slopes from our field data are close to those reported literature from laboratory culture experiments. Since seawater carbonate chemistry affects the δ¹³C_shell in an opposite sense, and often with a larger magnitude, than the change related to productivity (i.e. δ¹³C_DIC), higher δ¹³C_shell values may be expected during periods of upwelling.     

Flood/drought change of last millennium in the Yangtze Delta and its possible connections with Tibetan climatic changes

Flood/drought series during the past 1000 yrs in the Yangtze Delta, China, was reconstructed based on historical documents and local chronologies. Continuous wavelet transform was applied to detect the periodicity and variability of the flood/drought series. Research results indicate that: (1) Larger fluctuations of climatic changes in the Tibetan Plateau result in higher wavelet variance of flood/drought in the Yangtze Delta, for example, during 1400–1700, the proxy indicators indicate that the annual temperature in Tibet experienced larger variability and that this time interval exactly corresponds to the time when the higher and significant wavelet variance occurred; (2) Periods featured by colder temperature in the Tibetan Plateau usually correspond to periods characterized by higher wetness with higher probability of flood events; (3) Variability of heating features of the Tibetan Plateau exerted great influences on intensity and onset of Indian monsoon and south Asian summer monsoon, and these atmospheric activities are in direct connection with precipitation in Eastern China. Current global warming may alter the snow mass of Tibetan Plateau and then alters the heating features of Tibetan Plateau, which may in turn impact flood/drought conditions in the Yangtze Delta.     

Variability in the H3 emission of Saturn: Consequences for ionisation rates and temperature

We present an analysis of observations of the auroral/polar regions of Saturn, carried out in 1999, 2004 and 2005, making use of the facility spectrometer, CGS4, on the United Kingdom Infrared Telescope (UKIRT), Mauna Kea, Hawaii. We obtain temperatures of 380(±70) K in 1999 and 420(±70) K in 2004. (The 2005 data has insufficient spectral resolution for a temperature determination to be made.) Our most probable interpretation is that the temperature of Saturn's auroral/polar H⁺₃ layer should be taken as 400(±50) K. This is lower than the value obtained by Miller et al. [Miller, S., and 10 colleagues, 2000. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. 358, 2485-2502], which is shown to be in error. Our analysis reveals clearly that the line emission due to H⁺₃ varies considerably, showing nearly an order of magnitude increase when one compares the data obtained in 1999 with those of 2004. Our conclusion is that this variability is (mainly) due to the changing H⁺₃ column density. By analogy with modelling results obtained for Jupiter, we estimate that the particle (keV electron) precipitation experienced by Saturn must be ∼20 times greater in 2004 than in 1999, to produce this additional ionisation. The H⁺₃ emission increases, but this is insufficient to offset most of the heating due to the extra particle precipitation, indicating that this ion does not act as a “thermostat” on Saturn, in the same way that it does on Jupiter.     

Nuclear spin temperature of ammonia in Comet 9P/Tempel 1 before and after the Deep Impact event

The Deep Impact mission succeeded in excavating inner materials from the nucleus of Comet 9P/Tempel 1 on 2005 July 04 (at 05:52 UT). Comet 9P/Tempel 1 is one of Jupiter family short period comets, which might originate in the Kuiper belt region in the solar nebula. In order to characterize the comet and to support the mission from the ground-based observatory, optical high-dispersion spectroscopic observations were carried out with the echelle spectrograph (UVES) mounted on the 8-m telescope VLT (UT2) before and after the Deep Impact event. Ortho-to-para abundance ratios (OPRs) of cometary ammonia were determined from the NH₂ emission spectra. The OPRs of ammonia on July 3.996 UT and 4.997 UT were derived to be 1.28±0.07 (nuclear spin temperature: Tspin=24±2 K) and 1.26±0.08 (Tspin=25±2 K), respectively. There is no significant change between before and after the impact. Actually, most materials ejected from the impact site could have moved away from the nucleus on July 4.997 UT, about 17 h after the impact. However, a small fraction of the ejected materials might remain in the slit of UVES instrument at that time because an excess of about 20% in the NH₂ emission flux is observed above the normal activity level was found [Manfroid, J., Hutsemékers, D., Jehin, E., Cochran, A.L., Arpigny, C., Jackson, W.M., Meech, K.J., Schulz, R., Zucconi, J.-M., 2007. Icarus. This issue]. If the excess of NH₂ on July 04.997 UT was produced from icy materials excavated by the Deep Impact, then an upper-limit of the ammonia OPR would be 1.75 (Tspin>17 K) for those materials. On the other hand, the OPR of ammonia produced from the quiescent sources was similar to that of the Oort cloud comets observed so far. This fact may imply that physical conditions where cometary ices formed were similar between Comet 9P/Tempel 1 and the Oort cloud comets.