Low-frequency variability of a semi-closed sea induced by the circulation in an adjacent ocean in a wind-driven,quasi-geostrophic,eddy-resolving simulation

The wind-driven circulation in the northwestern Pacific and the South China Sea (SCS) is simplified as a two-layer, quasi-geostrophic model in two rectangular basins connected by an idealized strait. This model is used to investigate the impact of the western boundary current (WBC) on the adjacent marginal sea. The variability of the circulation in the two basins is investigated with a high resolution and at low viscosity, which allows the numerical solution to resolve mesoscale eddy forcing. The model ocean is driven by the time-independent asymmetric wind stress acting on the idealized Pacific (large basin) only. Under the reference parameters used in this study, the WBC can intrude into the idealized SCS (small basin) in the form of a loop current, shedding eddies regularly. The rate of eddy shedding is nearly constant throughout the entire integration time of the model; however, the intensity of the eddy-shedding exhibits multiple timescale variability ranging from quasi-biennial to decadal timescale. A set of sensitivity experiments demonstrate that our results are robust against changes to model parameters and geometry. Multivariate spectral analysis is used to extract the spatiotemporal feature of the variability. Joint analysis for the two basins shows that the circulation in the idealized SCS is significantly impacted by the variability at decadal (15-year), interannual (5–7-year and quasi-biennial), and quasi-annual timescales. The spatial structures of the modes of variablility suggest that the variance in position of the WBC, combined with mesoscale activity, act to influence the low-frequency modes of the idealized SCS. The structural differences between the modes strongly impacting the idealized SCS and those having weak influence are also presented.     

A determination of the wind-driven ocean circulation from the vorticity budget of the atmosphere

Summary The annual mean distribution of the surface stress curl over the Northern Hemisphere has been estimated from the horizontal vorticity advection in the atmosphere by using the upper-wind statistics as published byCrutcher [2]³). The results are used to compute the wind-driven mass transport (Sverdrup transport) in North Atlantic and North Pacific. The calculated intensity of the Gulf Stream is largest at the latitude 35°N, where a mass transport of 45×10⁶ tons sec^–1 is obtained; for the maximum intensity of the Kuroshio current a value of 60×10⁶ tons sec^–1 is obtained.Research supported in part by the Section of Atmospheric Sciences, National Science Foundation, Grant GP-2561.The research for this study was started by the author at the Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Mich.     

Interannual variability and characteristics of the East India Coastal Current associated with Indian Ocean Dipole events using a high resolution regional ocean model

The characteristics and variability of the East India Coastal Current (EICC), the western boundary current in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) years between 2006 and 2012 have been investigated using the high-resolution Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). The evolution of temperature, mixed layer depth (MLD), and seasonal basin scale circulation in the upper ocean simulated by the model agrees well with the observations. The EICC in BoB is characterized by a seasonal reversal flow: the poleward EICC during February?May and the equatorward EICC during August?December. A long-term simulation from 2006 to 2012 suggest that the circulation pattern, boundary current structure, and transport in the western BoB are completely different in positive and negative IOD years. As IOD is mainly phase-locked to the seasonal cycle with most significant influence in the Borel autumn, the equatorward EICC is affected during the IOD years. It is found that the strength of this EICC is ~?5 Sv in October 2010 and a weaker EICC dominated by the presence of eddies is observed in October 2006. We also quantified the local and remote forcing effects on the variability of EICC and found that the seasonal coastal Kelvin waves (KWs) play a dominant role in the development of the EICC. During positive IOD year 2006, due the absence of second downwelling KW, the EICC is completely disorganized and dominated by the eddies, whereas in the negative IOD year 2010, the strong second downwelling KW plays a key role in developing organized and stable EICC in the western BoB.     

A high-resolution modeling study of the Western Iberian Margin mean and seasonal upper ocean circulation

The mean seasonal hydrography and circulation of the Western Iberian Margin (WIM) are studied by means of a high-resolution configuration of the Regional Oceanic Modeling System. A comparison of 5-year model averages for January and July with climatological datasets shows a general good agreement in the reproduction of the mean water mass properties and hydrographic distribution. We find that there is a prevailing tendency for slope poleward flow at about 80–100 km offshore at all latitudes from the surface to 1,500 m with strong vertical coupling. This northward flow, which is mainly along slope and amounts up to 8–10 cm s^?1, exhibits several mean flow recirculation regions on its way and evidences of an offshore pathway of poleward flow. Transports at different zonal sections further confirm the poleward flow tendency with two peaks of poleward transport in summer (3–10 Sv) and winter (2–7 Sv). The transport time series emphasize the seasonal character of the alongshore circulation and the interannual intrinsic variability of the circulation, since the forcing fields are climatological. As a conceptual essay with the purpose of assessing the Mediterranean Water flow influence on the WIM mean circulation, a second model configuration is setup, where the Mediterranean outflow into the study domain is removed. We find that there is an attenuation of the mesoscale field, but the slope poleward flow intensifies and remains as a mean dynamical feature closer to the upper slope.     

Two regimes of the Arctic's circulation from ocean models with ice and contaminants

A two-dimensional barotropic, coupled, ocean-ice model with a space resolution of 55.5 km and driven by atmospheric forces, river run-off, and sea-level slope between the Pacific and the Arctic Oceans, has been used to simulate the vertically averaged currents and ice drift in the Arctic Ocean. Results from 43 years of numerical simulations of water and ice motions demonstrate that two wind-driven circulation regimes are possible in the Arctic, a cyclonic and an anti-cyclonic circulation. These two regimes appear to alternate at 5-7 year intervals with the 10-15 year period. It is important to pollution studies to understand which circulation regime prevails at any time. It is anticipated that 1995 is a year with a cyclonic regime, and during this cyclonic phase and possibly during past cyclonic regimes as well, pollutants may reach the Alaskan shelf. The regime shifts demonstrated in this paper are fundamentally important to understanding the Arctic's general circulation and particularly important for estimating pollution transport.     

Interbasin freshwater,heat and salt transport through the boundaries of the East and South China Seas from a variable-grid global ocean circulation model

It has long been recognized that the circulation in the East China Sea (ECS) and Japan/East Sea (JES) is closely related with that in Pacific, especially with the Kuroshio (e.g., Nitani[1], Hi-daka[2]). Based on current measurements in the Taiwan Strait a…     

The seasonal variability of the northern Benguela undercurrent and its relation to the oxygen budget on the shelf

The seasonal variations in the advection and mixing of water masses in the northern Benguela were studied in relation to the oxygen minimum zone over the Namibian shelf. The used data set consists of hydrographic and current measurements from an oceanographic mooring 20 nm off Walvis Bay, monthly CTD transects from the Namibian 23°S monitoring line and recent large-scale hydrographic surveys. The current time series showed an intermittent southward continuation of the Angola Current (AC) through the Angola–Benguela frontal zone (ABFZ) into the northern Benguela, commonly known as poleward undercurrent. In austral summer hypoxic, nutrient rich South Atlantic central water (SACW) from the Angola Gyre is transported into the northern Benguela, whereas during the winter season the oxygen rich Eastern SACW (ESACW) spreads northward. The water mass analysis reveals a mixing between both water masses in the northern Benguela between the ABFZ and the Lüderitz upwelling cell (27°S). The oxygen balance over the Namibian shelf depends to a high extent on the water mass composition of the upper central water layer, controlled by the large scale and local circulation. The deviation of the measured oxygen concentration from its mixing concentration, calculated with the source water mass properties, was used to quantify the oxygen consumption. A new local definition SACW was derived to exclude biogeochemical processes, taking place in the Angola Gyre. The oxygen deficit in the northern Benguela central water amounted to about 60–80 μmol l⁻¹ at the shelf edge and increased up to 150 μmol l⁻¹ on the shelf, due to local oxygen consumption. In the austral summer anoxic bottom waters are observed at the central Namibian shelf, which correlate to an SACW fraction >55%. Periods with high SACW fraction in the water mass composition were congruent with hydrogen sulphide events detected by remote sensing.     

Simulating the three-dimensional circulation and hydrography of Halifax Harbour using a multi-nested coastal ocean circulation model

Halifax Harbour is located on the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia, Canada. It is one of the world’s largest, ice-free natural harbours and of great economic importance to the region. A good understanding of the physical processes controlling tides, flooding, transport and dispersion, and hydrographic variability is required for pollution control and sustainable development of the Harbour. For the first time, a multi-nested, finite difference coastal ocean circulation model is used to reconstruct the three-dimensional circulation and hydrography of the Harbour and its variability on timescales of hours to months for 2006. The model is driven by tides, wind and sea level pressure, air-sea fluxes of heat, and terrestrial buoyancy fluxes associated with river and sewage discharge. The predictive skill of the model is assessed by comparing the model simulations with independent observations of sea level from coastal tide gauges and currents from moored instruments. The simulated hydrography is also compared against a new monthly climatology created from all available temperature and salinity observations made in the Harbour over the last century. It is shown that the model can reproduce accurately the main features of the observed tides and storm surge, seasonal mean circulation and hydrography, and wind driven variations. The model is next used to examine the main physical processes controlling the circulation and hydrography of the Harbour. It is shown that non-linear interaction between tidal currents and complex topography occurs over the Narrows. The overall circulation can be characterized as a two-layer estuarine circulation with seaward flow in the thin upper layer and landward flow in the broad lower layer. An important component of this estuarine circulation is a relatively strong, vertically sheared jet situated over a narrow sill connecting the inner Harbour to the deep and relatively quiescent Bedford Basin. Local wind driven variability is strongest in winter as expected but it is also shown that a significant part of the temperature and salinity variability is driven by physical processes occurring on the adjacent inner continental shelf, especially during storm and coastal upwelling events.     

The radiative energy budget of the middle atmosphere and its parameterization in general circulation models

The thermal regime of the middle atmosphere is determined to a great extent by the balance between the incoming solar and outgoing infrared radiation. To account for these processes in numerical models of the middle atmosphere, parameterizations that are capable of quickly and accurately calculating infrared cooling and solar heating rates are required. These parameterizations should include the breakdown of local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) conditions and allow for feedbacks by ensuring that dependencies on all input parameters are accounted for. This paper discusses the major mechanisms responsible for maintaining the radiative energy budget of the middle atmosphere and presents a brief review of approaches and numerical schemes currently available for use in general circulation models. The main focus of the paper is on the approaches and schemes designed for non-LTE treatment.     

Numerical study of seasonal circulation and variability over the inner shelf of the northern South China Sea

This study examines seasonal circulation, hydrography, and associated spatial variability over the inner shelf of the northern South China Sea (NSCS) using a nested-grid coastal ocean circulation model. The model external forcing consists of tides, atmospheric forcing, and open boundary conditions based on the global ocean circulation and hydrography reanalysis produced by the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean model. Five numerical experiments are conducted with different combinations of external forcing functions to examine main physical processes affecting the seasonal circulation in the study region. Model results demonstrate that the monthly mean circulation in the study region features the Guangdong Coastal Current (GCC) over coastal waters and the South China Sea Warm Current (SCSWC) in the offshore deep waters. The GCC produced by the model flows nearly southwestward in winter months and northwestward in summer months, which agrees with previous studies. The SCSWC flows roughly northeastward and is well defined in summer months. In winter months, by comparison, the SCSWC is superseded by the southwestward strong wind-driven currents. Analysis of model results in five different experiments demonstrates that the monthly mean circulation over coastal and inner shelf waters of the NSCS can be approximated by barotropic currents forced by the southwestward monsoon winds in winter months. In summer months, by comparison, the monthly mean circulation in the study region is affected significantly by baroclinic dynamics associated with freshwater runoff from the Pearl River and advection of warm and saline waters carried by the SCSWC over the NSCS.     

The roles of surface heat flux and ocean heat transport convergence in determining Atlantic Ocean temperature variability

The temperature variability of the Atlantic Ocean is investigated using an eddy-permitting (1/4°) global ocean model (ORCA-025) forced with historical surface meteorological fields from 1958 to 2001. The simulation of volume-averaged temperature and the vertical structure of the zonally averaged temperature trends are compared with those from observations. In regions with a high number of observations, in particular above a depth of 500 m and between 22° N and 65° N, the model simulation and the dataset are in good agreement. The relative contribution of variability in ocean heat transport (OHT) convergence and net surface heat flux to changes in ocean heat content is investigated with a focus on three regions: the subpolar and subtropical gyres and the tropics. The surface heat flux plays a relatively minor role in year-to-year changes in the subpolar and subtropical regions, but in the tropical North Atlantic, its role is of similar significance to the ocean heat transport convergence. The strongest signal during the study period is a cooling of the subpolar gyre between 1970 and 1990, which subsequently reversed as the mid-latitude OHT convergence transitioned from an anomalously weak to an anomalously strong state. We also explore whether model OHT anomalies can be linked to surface flux anomalies through a Hovmöller analysis of the Atlantic sector. At low latitudes, increased ocean heat gain coincides with anomalously strong northward transport, whereas at mid-high latitudes, reduced ocean heat loss is associated with anomalously weak heat transport.     

Decadal long simulations of mesoscale structures in the northern North Sea/Skagerrak using two ocean models

We consider results from two 27-year-long simulation pairs derived using two different ocean models. We focus on the Skagerrak/North Sea area. Each pair consists of the two terrain-following coordinate models ROMS and MIPOM. The first pair utilizes an eddy-permitting grid, that is, a grid in which the Rossby radius is barely resolved. The second pair utilizes an eddy-resolving grid in which the Rossby radius is truly resolved. The goal is to compare the quality of the two models and the two pairs. To this end we derive statistical properties such as probability density functions and compare them with similar statistics derived from observations. Thereby we obtain insight into whether a truly eddy-resolving model is required to realistically capture the mesoscale statistics. We find that eddy resolution is critical to get the mesoscale statistics correct, in particular, the strength of the current jets. Our results also indicate that the improvement gained by employing the eddy-resolving grid is mostly due to a better resolved topography. In particular, we find that this is the case in areas exhibiting prominent topographic features, such as the deep Norwegian Trench cutting into the heart of the northern North Sea/Skagerrak area. The results also highlight the advantage of first performing quality assurance investigations when implementing a new model for a new area.     

Suppressing bias and drift of coastal circulation models through the assimilation of seasonal climatologies of temperature and salinity

Recently Thompson et al. (2006. A simple method for reducing seasonal bias and drift in eddy resolving ocean models. Ocean Modelling 13, 109–125.) proposed a new method for suppressing the bias and drift of ocean circulation models. The basic idea is to nudge the model toward gridded climatologies of observed temperature and salinity in prescribed frequency–wavenumber bands; outside of these bands the model's dynamics are not directly affected by the nudging and the model state can evolve prognostically. Given the restriction of the nudging to certain frequency–wavenumber bands, the method is termed spectral nudging. The frequency–wavenumber bands are chosen to capture the information in the climatology and thus are centered on the climatological frequencies of zero, one cycle per year and its harmonics, and also low wavenumbers (reflecting the smooth nature of gridded climatologies). The new method is applied in this study to a fully nonlinear, 3D baroclinic circulation model of the continental shelves and inland seas of Atlantic Canada and the northeast US. It is shown that the scheme can suppress drift and bias in a nine month integration (February–October, 2002) while still allowing realistic evolution of tides, surges and wind and tide-driven coastal upwelling. It is also shown that density stratification can affect significantly tidal elevations in some regions. The implications for ocean hindcasting and short-term forecasting are discussed.     

Probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasts of the Citarum River,Indonesia, based on general circulation models

In this study we discuss probabilistic forecasts of Citarum River streamflow, which supplies 80 % of the water demands in Jakarta, Indonesia, based on general circulation model (GCM) output, for the September–November (SON) season. Retrospective forecasts of precipitation made over the period 1982–2010 with two coupled-ocean atmosphere GCMs, initialized in August, are used in conjunction historical streamflow records, with a cross-validated regression model. Pearson’s product moment correlation skill values of 0.58–0.67 are obtained, with relative operating characteristic scores of 0.67–0.84 and 0.74–0.92 for the lower and upper tercile categories of flows respectively. Both GCMs thus demonstrate promising ability to forecast below/above normal streamflow for the Citarum River flow during the SON season.     

Intra‐annual variability in the non‐advective heat energy budget of Devon streams and rivers

The nature of intra‐annual variability in the non‐advective heat fluxes affecting streams and rivers in Devon, UK was investigated through detailed monitoring of study reaches in an upland moorland catchment, below a regulating reservoir, and flowing through deciduous woodland and coniferous forest during the period May 1995 to April 1996. A clear pattern of seasonal variation was evident, whereby net radiation provided a heat source during the summer but a heat sink in the winter, as incoming short‐wave radiation declined and outgoing long‐wave radiation increased. Sensible transfer added heat to the study reaches in the summer but removed it during the winter, and bed conduction acted as a heat sink in the summer period but as a heat source in the winter months. Friction and evaporation added and removed heat, respectively, from the study reaches throughout the year, but the magnitude of these fluxes reflected seasonal variations in discharge and in wind speed. Water temperature generally followed the net non‐advective heat energy budget, which was positive in summer but negative in winter. Although a general pattern of seasonal variability in the non‐advective heat energy budget was evident, detailed differences in the nature and extent of intra‐annual variability were apparent between the study reaches and particularly between forested and non‐forested sites. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Study on subtidal circulation and variability in the Gulf of St. Lawrence,Scotian Shelf,and Gulf of Maine using a nested-grid shelf circulation model

This paper examines the subtidal circulation and associated variability in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Scotian Shelf, and the Gulf of Maine (GSL-SS-GOM) in 1988–2004 based on results produced by a nested-grid shelf circulation model. The model has a fine-resolution child model (～ (1/12)°) embedded inside a coarse-resolution parent model (～ (1/4)°) of the northwest Atlantic. The combination of the semi-prognostic method and the spectral nudging method is used to reduce the model seasonal bias and drift. The child model reproduces the general features of the observed circulation and hydrography over the study region during the study period. The child model results demonstrate that the time-mean circulation in the GSL is affected by the time-mean atmospheric forcing and inflow through the Strait of Belle Isle. The temporal variability in atmospheric forcing affects the outflow through western Cabot Strait, which in turn affects the transport of the Nova Scotian Current and the gulf-wide cyclonic circulation in the GOM. The simulated seasonal variability of salinity in the top 30 m of the GSL-SS-GOM is mainly affected by the equatorward advection of low-salinity waters from the lower St. Lawrence Estuary to the GOM through the Scotian Shelf. The simulated intraseasonal variability of circulation in the GSL is affected by the variability in the estuarine circulation in response to the temporal variability in atmospheric forcing. On the Scotian Shelf, the intraseasonal variability is mainly driven by the variability of wind forcing and mesoscale and nonlinear dynamics over the shelf break and slope region. The interannual variability in the simulated temperature and salinity are spatially coherent in the intermediate waters in the GSL, which is caused partially by the local response to atmospheric variability and partially by variabilities over the southern Newfoundland Shelf that enter the GSL through the eastern Cabot Strait. By comparison, on the Scotian Shelf, the interannual variability of simulated circulation is affected by anomalies produced by the nonlinear dynamics which are advected equatorwards by the shelf break jet.     

An improved method for evaluating the seasonal variability of total suspended sediment flux field in the Yellow and East China Seas

The suspended sediment flux field in the Yellow and East China Seas(YECS) displays its seasonal variability.A new method is introduced in this paper to obtain the flux field via retrieval of ocean color remote sensing data,statistical analysis of historical suspended sediment concentration data,and numerical simulation of three-dimensional(3D) flow velocity.The components of the sediment flux field include(i) surface suspended sediment concentration inverted from ocean color remote sensing data;(ii) vertical distribution of suspended sediment concentration obtained by statistical analysis of historical observation data;and(iii) 3D flow field modeled by a numerical simulation.With the improved method,the 3D suspended sediment flux field in the YECS has been illustrated.By comparison with the suspended sediment flux field solely based on the numerical simulation of a suspended sediment transport model,the suspended sediment flux field obtained by the improved method is found to be more reliable.The 3D suspended sediment flux field from ocean colour remote sensing and in situ observation are more closer to the reality.Furthermore,by quantitatively analyzing the newly obtained suspended sediment flux field,the quantity of sediment erosion and deposition within the different regions can be evaluated.The sediment exchange between the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea can be evident.The mechanism of suspended sediment transport in the YECS can be better understood.In particular,it is suggested that the long-term transport of suspended sediment is controlled mainly by the circulation pattern,especially the current in winter.     

Recent weakening of seasonal temperature difference in East Asia beyond the historical range of variability since the 14th century

Seasonal differences of temperature are crucial components of the Earth’s climate system.However,the relatively short observational record,especially for East Asia,has limited progress in understanding seasonal differences.In this study,we identify ten tree-ring chronologies separately correlated with local winter(December-February)temperatures and twelve different tree-ring chronologies separately correlated with summer(June-August)temperatures across East Asia.Using these discrete seasonal tre...     

Linkage between multi-model uncertainties and the role of ocean heat content in ocean carbon uptake

Ocean heat content (OHC) plays an important role in ocean carbon uptake (OCU). However, the changes of OHC and OCU are model-dependent and have large bias compared with observations. This makes it difficult to quantify their relationship. Here, we propose a new metric to measure the uncertainty of the relationship between OHC and OCU. The new metric can link the uncertainty with different OCU processes and allow direct comparison of the impact of OHC on the OCU in different simulations. The metric is illustrated in different simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in which atmospheric CO₂ is increased by 1%/year. Results show that OHC in 0–500 m plays a dominant role in the OCU for the radiatively coupled (RAD) experiment because warming intensifies the carbon loss in the upper ocean. Relatively, OHC in the intermediate waters (500–2000 m) are crucial for the fully coupled and biogeochemically coupled experiment because this layer largely regulates the OCU. For different ocean basins, the intermediate Southern Ocean and deep North Atlantic are more important for the OCU in the RAD simulation. The metric also suggests the importance of global overturning circulation and the Southern Ocean in the OCU.