Similarity parameters and a centrifugal convective instability of horizontally inhomogeneous circulations of the Hadley type

The stability of the zonal axisymmetric quasi-geostrophic hydrostatic solution to the equations of atmospheric dynamics that is determined by the horizontal temperature gradient is studied. Time-dependent regions of unstable solutions specified by the Rayleigh number describe ordinary convective (baroclinic) processes and the long-term weak growth of disturbances under the action of the centrifugal forces arising from the Earth’s rotation. Comparison with a centrifugal hydrodynamic instability is made. The spatiotemporal structure of the corresponding geophysical fields is described.     

Effect of the tangential component of a force field on convection in a rotating plane layer

Thermal convection in an inclined plane layer having boundaries with different temperatures and rotating around an axis perpendicular to its plane is studied experimentally. It is shown that the convection and heat transfer are determined by two different convective mechanisms—gravitational and thermovibrational ones; they manifest themselves in the threshold excitation of cellular convective structures with different sizes. The thermovibrational convection is caused by the period-averaged mass force arising as a result of tidal oscillations of a nonisothermal fluid with respect to the cavity under the action of the external force-field component tangential to the layer. The map of convection regimes on the plane of governing parameters—the gravitational Rayleigh number and its vibrational analog—has been constructed. It has been found that the thermovibrational convection can develop even in a layer heated from above. The role of the dimensionless velocity of rotation, which has a stabilizing effect on the excitation of both gravitational and thermovibrational convection, has been studied.     

Convective cloud fields in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic: Satellite and ground-based observations

Convective cloudiness in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic is considered as an atmospheric spatially self-organized convective field. Convective cloud development is usually studied as a local process reflecting the convective instability of the turbulent planetary boundary layer over a heated surface. The convective cloudiness has a different dynamical structure in high latitudes. Cloud development follows cold-air outbreaks into the areas with a relatively warm surface. As a result, the physical and morphological characteristics of clouds, such as the type of convective cloud, and their geographical localization are interrelated. It has been shown that marginal sea ice and coastal zones are the most frequently occupied by Cu hum, Cu med convective clouds, which are organized in convective rolls. Simultaneously, the open water marine areas are occupied by Cu cong, Cb, which are organized in convective cells. An intercomparison of cloud statistics using satellite data ISCCP and ground-based observations has revealed an inconsistency in the cloudiness trends in these data sources: convective cloudiness decreases in ISCCP data and increases in the groundbased observation data. In general, according to the stated hypothesis, the retreat of the sea-ice boundary may lead to an increase in the amount of convective clouds.     

Experimental investigation of free (downward) convection near horizontal cold spots

To explain the conditions for dew and pollutant precipitation during still-weather radiative cooling of the Earth’s surface, attention is paid to the role of surface temperature inhomogeneities and convective air flows appearing near them. To understand how convection forms near cold spots, schematic cylinders with adiabatic walls and a cold bottom are considered. The results of this consideration agree with the results obtained in previous calculations and experimental studies, namely, the Nusselt number depends on the Rayleigh number to the power 1/5 with the proportionality coefficient γ. The quantitative characteristics were experimentally investigated by measuring the vertical temperature profiles and observing tracer motion near circular cold water surfaces about 30 cm and 10 m in size. As a result, it is found that, for isolated planar spots, the temperature difference between the spot surface and the environment decreases in accordance with the exponential law and air motions from the center of the spot toward its edges are of a laminar character. For the Rayleigh numbers that use the ratio of the area of the spot to the half of its perimeter as the characteristic size, the mean values of the coefficient γ are 1.1 for an isolated spot with Ra = 10⁶ and 0.7–0.8 for spots with Ra = 10⁶?5 × 10¹⁰ located at one level with the surrounding surface. For deepened spots, the processes of heat exchange significantly slow down and the character of temperature profiles changes depending on the material of the surrounding walls. The process of establishing the equilibrium temperature of an isolated spot that is caused by radiative cooling and the convective inflow of heat and moisture is considered in the Appendix. A method for preventing radiation fog by air drying during convection near the surrounding cold surfaces is proposed, and the principles of the intensification of the condensed-moisture collection are formulated.     

Empirical analysis of the aerosol effect on the spectral brightness variability in the ocean-atmosphere system

A statistical analysis of the variations of the brightness coefficient in the ocean-atmosphere system in the visible band was carried out using the results of remote measurements from the INTERKOSMOS-21 satellite. The variability of the seawater optical parameters and the Rayleigh component of light scattering were eliminated by computing the variations of the signals from the local average values along the route of measurements. The derived spectral dependence of the aerosol scattering component is characterized by a slight increase when the wavelength increases.Translated by Mikhail M. Trufanov.     

Features of turbulent momentum and heat transfer in a stably stratified boundary layer over a rough surface

The features of the structure of a stable boundary layer over an urbanized surface are studied using a nonlocal model for the turbulent momentum and heat fluxes, which physically adequately takes into account the effect of buoyancy on turbulent transfer. The transformation of the structure of the boundary layer during transition from a state of convective mixing to a stable state is described by unified expressions for the turbulent momentum and heat fluxes. In some known schemes, different models are used for unstable and stable states. The model reproduces a stable dependence of the Prandtl number on the Richardson number and countergradient heat transfer in a strongly stable boundary layer. The results of numerical simulation are compared to the data of a laboratory experiment and the data obtained using the large-eddy simulation (LES) method.     

Wave Energy Estimation by Using A Statistical Analysis and Wave Buoy Data near the Southern Caspian Sea

Statistical analysis was done on simultaneous wave and wind using data recorded by discus-shape wave buoy. The area is located in the southern Caspian Sea near the Anzali Port. Recorded wave data were obtained through directional spectrum wave analysis. Recorded wind direction and wind speed were obtained through the related time series as well. For 12-month measurements(May 25 2007-2008), statistical calculations were done to specify the value of nonlinear auto-correlation of wave and wind using the probability distribution function of wave characteristics and statistical analysis in various time periods. The paper also presents and analyzes the amount of wave energy for the area mentioned on the basis of available database. Analyses showed a suitable comparison between the amounts of wave energy in different seasons. As a result, the best period for the largest amount of wave energy was known. Results showed that in the research period, the mean wave and wind auto correlation were about three hours. Among the probability distribution functions, i.e Weibull, Normal, Lognormal and Rayleigh, "Weibull" had the best consistency with experimental distribution function shown in different diagrams for each season. Results also showed that the mean wave energy in the research period was about 49.88 k W/m and the maximum density of wave energy was found in February and March, 2010.     

Measurements and modeling of low-frequency near-surface scattering statistics

High-resolution acoustic measurements of low-frequency near-surface backscattering at low grazing angles have been made in the open ocean using vertical arrays of coherent sources. Over the range of wind speeds (4-18 m/s) encountered, the normalized data amplitudes exhibited variable non-Rayleigh behavior, from near Rayleigh in the highest sea states to near lognormal in low-to-moderate sea states. Seven probability density function (pdf) models were fit to the data, with the three-component Rayleigh mixture providing the most consistent fits and the least errors. One pdf model, the Poisson-Rayleigh, provided not only good fits to many data sets, but also physical insights into the scattering process. This model's estimates of the expected number of discrete scatterers ranged from 200/km/sup 2/ at low wind speeds to 2000/km/sup 2/ at high wind speeds, consistent with the expected densities of fish and subsurface bubble clouds, respectively. These results are encouraging with regard to developing physical models capable of using local results (such as these) to accurately predict long-range reverberation and clutter statistics.     

Distributions of freak wave heights measured in the North Sea

We present a statistical analysis of some of the largest waves occurring during 793 h of surface elevation measurements collected during 14 severe storms in the North Sea. This data contains 104 freak waves. It is found that the probability of occurrence of freak waves is only weekly dependent on the significant wave height, significant wave steepness and spectral bandwidth. The probability does show a slightly stronger dependency on the skew and kurtosis of the surface elevation data, but on removing the contribution to these measures from the presence of the freakwaves themselves, this dependency largely disappears.Distributions of extreme waves are modelled by fitting Generalised Pareto distributions, and extreme value distributions and return periods are given for freak waves in terms of the empirical fitted parameters. It is shown by comparison with these fits that both the Rayleigh distribution and the fit of Nerzic and Prevosto severely under-predict the probability of occurrence of extreme waves. For the most extreme freak wave in our data, the Rayleigh distribution over-predicts the return period by about 300 times when compared to the fitted model.     

Correlation between individual waves in a real sea state

The correlation between individual waves in a real sea state has a central role in existing theories of wave grouping. The attractive Kimura (1980) theory has two critical assumptions, that the sequence of individual wave heights follows a Markov process and that the joint distribution of consecutive wave heights follows a bivariate Rayleigh form. Analysis of measured water surface records suggests that sequences of individual waves can reasonably be described as a first order mixed autoregressive, moving-average or ARMA process, though a distinction among ARMA (1,0), ARMA (0,1) and ARMA (1,1) models was beyond the resolution of the data. These include the Markov or ARMA (1,0) model. The decisive detail, the joint distribution of consecutive wave heights in the sea state, was evaluated by a simulation methodology that is consistent with the Gaussian random wave model. The estimates are dependent on spectral shape and are consistently narrower and more sharply focussed at the peak than the corresponding bivariate Rayleigh estimate. The resulting predictions of run and group length statistics differ from the Kimura theory, though not by a sufficient margin to displace the Kimura theory as a pragmatic choice for wave grouping.     

Deep convection in the ocean general circulation model: Variability on the diurnal,seasonal, and interannual time scales

Features of geographical localization and of temporal variability of convective mixing were examined based on numerical experiments with the general ocean circulation model developed at the Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation. The computations were performed using 6-h data on atmospheric forcing, which allows one to simulate the variability in a broad range of time scales—from diurnal to interannual. On the whole, the results of the numerical experiments are consistent with the available scarce observational data available on the deep convection in the North Atlantic. A pronounced regionalization of the deep convection in the open ocean is noted, as well as a significant spatial and temporal intermittence of convective events on time scales from a day to a few days. On the interannual time scale, a correlation is recognized with the variations of the atmospheric forcing and with the hydrophysical conditions in the ocean, in particular, with the cyclonic circulation within the baroclinic layer.     

States of maximum entropy production in a one-dimensional vertical model with convective adjustment

We investigate the hypothesis that the atmosphere is constrained to maximize its entropy production by using a one-dimensional (1-D) vertical model. We prescribe the lapse rate in the convective layer as that of the standard troposphere. The assumption that convection sustains a critical lapse rate was absent in previous studies, which focused on the vertical distribution of climatic variables, since such a convective adjustment reduces the degrees of freedom of the system and may prevent the application of the maximum entropy production (MEP) principle. This is not the case in the radiative-convective model (RCM) developed here, since we accept a discontinuity of temperatures at the surface similar to that adopted in many RCMs.
For current conditions, the MEP state gives a difference between the ground temperature and the air temperature at the surface ≈10 K. In comparison, conventional RCMs obtain a discontinuity ≈2K only. However, the surface boundary layer velocity in the MEP state appears reasonable (≈m s⁻¹). Moreover, although the convective flux at the surface in MEP states is almost uniform in optically thick atmospheres, it reaches a maximum value for an optical thickness similar to current conditions. This additional result may support the maximum convection hypothesis suggested by Paltridge (1978 ).     

Modified Rayleigh distribution of wave heights in transitional water depths

This paper concerns the calculation of wave height exceedance probabilities for nonlinear irregular waves in transitional water depths, and a Transformed Rayleigh method is first proposed for carrying out the calculation. In the proposed Transformed Rayleigh method, the transformation model is chosen to be a monotonic exponential function, calibrated such that the first three moments of the transformed model match the moments of the true process. The proposed new method has been applied for calculating the wave height exceedance probabilities of a sea state with the surface elevation data measured at the Poseidon platform. It is demonstrated in this case that the proposed new method can offer better predictions than those by using the conventional Rayleigh wave height distribution model. The proposed new method has been further applied for calculating the total horizontal loads on a generic jacket, and its accuracy has once again been substantiated. The research findings gained from this study demonstrate that the proposed Transformed Rayleigh model can be utilized as a promising alternative to the well-established nonlinear wave height distribution models.     

Modified Rayleigh Distribution of Wave Heights in Transitional Water Depths

This paper concerns the calculation of wave height exceedance probabilities for nonlinear irregular waves in transitional water depths, and a Transformed Rayleigh method is first proposed for carrying out the calculation. In the proposed Transformed Rayleigh method, the transformation model is chosen to be a monotonic exponential function, calibrated such that the first three moments of the transformed model match the moments of the true process. The proposed new method has been applied for calculating the wave height exceedance probabilities of a sea state with the surface elevation data measured at the Poseidon platform. It is demonstrated in this case that the proposed new method can offer better predictions than those by using the conventional Rayleigh wave height distribution model. The proposed new method has been further applied for calculating the total horizontal loads on a generic jacket, and its accuracy has once again been substantiated. The research findings gained from this study demonstrate that the proposed Transformed Rayleigh model can be utilized as a promising alternative to the well-established nonlinear wave height distribution models.     

Extreme value estimates for arbitrary bandwidth Gaussian processes using the analytic envelope

A procedure is presented for the estimation of extreme values of stationary Gaussian random processes with arbitrary bandwidths. This approach is based on the analytic envelope defined by the Hilbert Transform; this envelope is Rayleigh distributed regardless of bandwidth. For experimentally derived data that has been converted into digital form, the Hilbert Transform is approximated using algorithms implemented on a digital computer to produce samples of the envelope's time history. Next, the degree of correlation between these envelope samples is taken into account using a method developed from simulation studies of a series of synthetic Gaussian time histories with varying bandwidths. Once this correlation effect has been estimated, the standard methods of order statistics are applied to these samples using the Rayleigh probability density function. Examples of applying this procedure to experimentally derived data are presented.     

Convective structures in the Lofoten Basin based on satellite and Argo data

We discuss the possibility of detecting deep convection in the Lofoten Basin of the Norwegian Sea based on the eddy structures revealed from the satellite data. Satellite altimetry, SAR imagery, and MODIS satellite spectral radiometer sea-surface temperature (SST) data are used in the analysis, along with the data of oceanographic Argo floats. It is shown that the eddies identified from the satellite data correspond to the convective cells in the same region according to the data of the Argo floats. We consider several examples of the summer eddy and one winter eddy and the corresponding structures in the ocean measured by the Argo floats when they were located close to the identified eddies. As this method develops and improves, it can be used for the analysis of the dynamic of oceanic eddies in the region of the Lofoten Basin, and possibly in other regions with active deep convection.     

Occurrence probability of a freak wave in a nonlinear wave field

The Edgeworth’s form of a cumulative expansion of the probability density function (PDF) of surface elevation expands the maximum wave height distribution to predict the occurrence probability of freak waves. This study investigated the enhancement of the occurrence probability of freak waves due to the fourth order moment of surface elevation, kurtosis, change and found that the nonlinear effects on the occurrence probability of a freak wave linearly depends on kurtosis for a small number of waves N=250. The statistical theory was compared with field data, and freak waves sometimes appear when not expected by the Rayleigh theory, but they were predicted by the proposed theory.     

Analysis of the nitrate distribution in the Black Sea density field

The paper discusses the results derived from the analysis of the vertical distribution of nitrates in the Black Sea density field during the winter of 1994. It has been shown that in the absence of winter-time convective mixing of waters, the vertical structure of nitrates is isopycnically defined. Maximum nitrates concentration persists throughout the warm period, normally changing from 5 to 9 μmol in the deep-water part of the area, and has not altered, in comparison with the 1980 data. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

辽东湾JZ20—2海域海冰参数的概率分布

基于辽东湾JZ2 0 2海域 1996 2 0 0 0年 4个冬季的海冰定点观测资料和海冰数值模拟结果 ,对该海域的平整冰厚、冰速、冰向和压缩强度等海冰参数进行了概率分析 ,确定了各自的分布参数 ,并对冰速和冰向进行了联合概率分析。结果表明 :冰厚和冰速分别服从对数正态分布和瑞利分布 ,海冰压缩强度服从正态分布。计算结果可用于JZ2 0 2海域海洋结构可靠性设计和疲劳累积损伤分析的海冰参数 ,也可作为其邻近海域的参考资料     

相似天气背景下深圳两次前汛期降水过程对比分析

在高空槽和低层切变线配合的相似环流背景下,2019年4月11日深圳出现短时暴雨(简称"2019年过程"),2020年4月11日以稳定性弱降水为主(简称"2020年过程"),利用ERA5再分析数据等对深圳这两次前汛期降水过程进行了对比分析.结果表明,2019年过程,温湿层结等对流条件和高空辐散条件较好,低空辐合动力条件相...