Effects of providing measures against earthquakes: experimental studies on the perceived risks of disasters and disaster preparedness intentions in Japan

This research examined the effects of providing measures against disasters on recipients’ perceived risks and preparedness intentions by conducting two experimental studies. A provision of a set of emergency food was manipulated in the first experiment. Participants (N = 143) were randomly assigned to the provided condition or non-provided condition. In the second experiment (N = 123), provision of an emergency toilet kit was manipulated. The results of the two experiments consistently indicated that (1) the provision of a measure increased the recipients’ perceived risks of the disaster concerned, (2) it increased their preparedness intentions for the disaster, and (3) it had no effects on perceived risks of or preparedness intentions against disasters unrelated to the measure provided. These results were contrary to the prediction deduced from the protection effect and single action effect. The findings in this study encourage promoting the risk management policy of providing people with disaster measures as the first step in disaster preparedness.     

Induced earthquakes in the Izu peninsula by the Izu-Hanto-Oki earthquake of 1974, Japan

Recently small earthquakes in the Izu Peninsula, central Japan, occurred in a region where differential strain, or shear strain on the nodal planes, may have been enhanced by the Izu-Hanto-oki earthquake of 1974 (M = 6.9 after JMA). It is suggested that the seismic ctivity was induced by the redistribution of strain accompanying the Izu-Hanto-oki earthquake. The activity from August, 1975, may have also been affected by an abnormal uplift in the northeastern part of the peninsula. Based on plausible models, the uplift caused the accumulation of differential strain in the focal region of the subsequent earthquakes. Quantitatively, this change of crustal strain was of the order of 10⁻⁶; it is ten times as much as the average annual accumulation. Consequently, the sudden or rapid change of strain was likely to have played an essential role in the subsequent seismic activity. This effect could be one of the factors which trigger a shallow intra-plate earthquake.     

Tebuthiuron leaching in three Brazilian soils as affected by soil pH

Underground contamination water by herbicides depends on the interactions between their molecules with physical and chemical soil characteristics and climatic conditions. Studies with columns can estimate the leaching potential of herbicides in soils. This study aimed to determine the effect of soil pH on tebuthiuron leaching, and capacity of bioindicators to detect tebuthiuron residues in three Brazilian soils. Cucumber plants (Cucumis sativus) were more negatively affected when grown in soils with lower amounts of organic matter and clay, and in these soils, the tebuthiuron levels reached greater depths in the column. There was a positive correlation between tebuthiuron concentration and cucumber intoxication, and a negative correlation between tebuthiuron concentration and dry matter cucumber in all soils. The tebuthiuron leached up to 50 cm depth even in soils with higher organic matter and clay content. The increasing of soil pH can affect the leaching of nonionic herbicides, and liming practice may elevate the environmental contamination risk by tebuthiuron. The bioindicator method using Cucumis sativus is viable and can be recommended to detect tebuthiuron concentrations above 0.2 mg kg^?1.     

Water demand and supply in large cities in Japan

After WW II, water demand in Japan for municipal and industrial use has increased drastically in those large cities and industrial regions with rapid urbanization and high economic growth. This was true especially in the decades of 1950 and 1960.Water shortage continues to be serious in some large cities in summer months. The author attempts to explain the reasons for this water shortage by explaining the relation between population growth and water demand in large cities. To meet these water shortages, there has been active development of water resources including construction of dams and saline barriers in large river basins and modernization of the water use system to increase its efficiency and re-use capacity for sewage treatment etc.At the same time, water resources development projects have been encountering various environmental problems as well as increased local protest in the 1970s. The author discusses the present dimensions of these problems and also presents several ideas regarding water resources planning for the future.     

A scaling model for quantification of earthquakes in and near Japan

A simple method is developed to determine seismic moments of earthquakes. The method is qualified through criteria such as simplicity of calculations, coverage of wide magnitude range, and insensitivity to detailed instrumental response. The method is applied to 163 major earthquakes which occurred underneath Japan and the Japan Sea in the time from 1926 to 1977. Magnitudes of these earthquakes, which have been determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency, (M_JMA) cover the range from 4.3 to 7.5. At first, source spectra are analyzed through a very simple way introducing two new parameters: characteristic period T_c and seismic-moment factor M_c. The former is defined as an average value of apparent periods of seismic waves with the maximum trace amplitude at many stations. The latter is an average of products of maximum trace amplitude and its apparent period multiplied by epicentral distance. It is shown that T_c corresponds to the period of the corner frequency of an earthquake and M_c to the seismic-moment density at the period of T_c. A scaling model of earthquake source spectra is presented which satisfies the empirical relations between the surface-wave magnitude M_s and M_JMA, and M_JMA and the body-wave magnitude m_b. Those relations are independent of the Gutenberg and Richter relation between M_s and m_b, because M_JMA is determined from maximum amplitudes of seismic waves with a period of about 4 sec. The static seismic moment of each earthquake can be estimated from calculated M_c using the source spectra of the scaling model. Seismic moments of 18 earthquakes determined by conventional analyses from near- and/or far-field observations are consistent with static seismic moments thus estimated over the range from 2 × 10²³ to 3 × 10²⁷ dyne cm. This shows the potential in practice of the present method, especially in the routine processing of seismic data.     

Intra-plate seismicity and inter-plate earthquakes: Historical activity in Southwest Japan

Over the last four hundred years the spatial variation of intra-plate seismicity in Southwest Japan correlates well with the occurrence of great inter-plate earthquakes. For fifty years before an inter-plate earthquake the intra-plate seismic activity is highest along a belt inland. For ten years afterwards it falls off in this belt, but rises on both sides along the Philippine Sea and Japan Sea coasts. Then it becomes low and remains low throughout the whole region until fifty to thirty years before the next inter-plate event, as shown by Utsu in 1974. An intermittent underthrusting drag exerted by the Philippine Sea plate seems to control the intra-plate seismicity, which partly takes up the relative plate motion as internal deformation. When a great inter-plate earthquake occurs, tectonic stress is released and seismic activity falls off in the central belt. The breaking of the plate boundary temporarily weakens the coupling between the two plates along the shallower part of the interface, which gently dips toward the Japan Sea coast. The decoupling causes stress concentration in the deeper part and results in increased seismic activity along the Japan Sea coast. The activity along the Philippine Sea coast may be interpreted as aftershock activity.     

Performance evaluation of Turkish disaster relief management system in 1999 earthquakes using data envelopment analysis

Natural Hazards - This study estimates the relative efficiency of disaster relief organizations that participated in the relief activities following the Marmara and Düzce earthquakes that took...     

Space-time distribution patterns of destructive earthquakes in the inner belt of central Japan: Activity intervals and locations of earthquakes

Based on a block structure model of the inner belt of central Japan, an examination was conducted of the space-time distribution patterns of destructiv magnitudes M 6.4 or greater (M =Japan Meteorological Agency Scale). The distribution patterns revealed a periodicity in earthquake activit seismic gaps. Major NW—SE trending left-lateral active faults divide the inner belt of central Japan into four blocks, 20–80 km wide. The occurrenc A.D. with M ≥ 6.4, which have caused significant damage, were documented in the inner belt of central Japan. The epicenters of these earthquakes close to the block boundaries.

Using the relationship between the magnitude of earthquakes which occurred in the Japanese Islands and the active length of faults that generated them, movement is calculated for each historical earthquake. Space—time distributions of earthquakes were obtained from the calculated lengths, the latitud of generation. When an active period begins, a portion or segment of the block boundary creates an earthquake, which in turn appears on the ground surf active period ends when the block boundary generates earthquakes over the entire length of the block boundary without overlapping.

Five seismic gaps with fault lengths of 20 km or longer can be found in the inner belt of central Japan. It is predicted that the gaps will generate ea magnitudes of 7.0. These data are of significance for estimating a regional earthquake risk over central Japan in the design of large earthquake resist

The time sequences of earthquakes on the block boundaries reveal a similar tendency, with alternating active periods with seismic activity and quiet pe activity. The inner belt of central Japan is now in the last stage of an active period. The next active period is predicted to occur around 2500 A.D.     

地质灾害应急支撑体系建设基本问题分析

以重大地质灾害应急实践为基础,采用文献研究、描述性研究和统计分析法,本文探讨了地质灾害应急支撑体系建设基本问题。认为:地质灾害应急具有"应对面广、预警困难、挽救率低、成因判定难"等特点;单个事件应急响应行动,一般通过三大步七个环节完成四项处置内容。单项处置行动通常有5个技术流程;地质灾害支撑体系具有"弱基础、松耦合、强内聚"结构,能力建设是重点。地质灾害过程机理、应急防治技术、应急预案动态优化和支撑系统是支撑体系建设中的四个关键科学技术问题。     

Evaluating social capital in emergency and disaster management and hazards plans

Natural Hazards - Natural hazards and disasters pose a serious threat to society. Efficient hazard plans are a county’s prerequisite in preparing for potential disasters and serve as primary...     

Resilient capacity assessment for geological failure areas: examples from communities affected by debris flow disaster

This study establishes a novel method for assessing the community resilient capacity of debris flow disasters with appropriate parameters, such as responding, monitoring and communication capabilities. This study adopts eight communities in Taiwan, namely Nangang, Tongfu, Jhongyang, Laiyuan, Chingfu, Sinsheng, Shangan and Jyunkeng, as examples. First, the Analytic Hierarchy Process was applied to establish the framework of the community resiliency capacity, including the community’s resources for disaster resilience and resident capabilities. The community’s resources for disaster resilience are identified by surveying the community leaders via checklists. Resident capabilities are determined using questionnaires. The community resilient capacity refers to the sum of the results from these two investigations. The two investigations have similar weights, indicating that they are equally significant when evaluating community resilient capacity. Second, FLO-2D software is utilized for hazard analysis by simulation results of deposited areas for debris flows, and then these areas were categorized according to hazard degrees. Finally, the vulnerability of communities is classified based on the land use type. In summary, the values of capacity, hazard and vulnerability are integrated to determine the risk of debris flow for each community. A risk map is then generated.     

吉林省三所城市电磁辐射监测结果统计分析与评价

以城市环境电磁污染为研究对象,根据吉林省长春、延吉、四平环境综合电场强度监测数据．利用统计学方法和指数评价法进行统计分析和评价,计算了三所城市的电磁污染评价指数和污染风险概率,并对环境电磁辐射容量进行了估算。结果表明：目前三所城市环境电磁辐射电场强度监测值具有不同的概率分布,辐射强度低于中国电磁辐射安全标准,污染风险概率为0。如果电磁辐射能量以年均14％的速度递增,长春、延吉、四平将分别在19年、16年和18年后电磁辐射水平超过电磁环境保护限值,因此应该加强城市环境电磁辐射的管理和防控。     

Regional economic impact analysis of earthquakes in northern Taiwan and its implications for disaster reduction policies

The direct damage caused by earthquakes, such as impaired buildings, may interfere with normal business operations and disrupt the function of the industrial chain. Such economic impacts can be evaluated using the input–output analysis developed by Leontief. In this paper, two scenario earthquakes in northern Taiwan both with a return period of 475 years—the Hsinchu Hsincheng and the Yilan Nan-ao earthquakes—are simulated. The results show that the economic impact caused by the Hsincheng earthquake is greater than that resulting from the Nan-ao earthquake, which should be the major scenario considered for the disaster reduction plan. The industries affected the most are the manufacturing, food services and entertainment, storage and retail trade, and public and construction industries. The Nan-ao earthquake causes relatively more losses in the food services and entertainment industries. Most of the repercussion effects of these industries are in the central and southern parts of Taiwan. The loss to the manufacturing sector and its repercussion effects are enormous. Therefore, the government should make it a first priority to encourage the manufacturing sector to implement earthquake mitigations, such as a seismic retrofit, or to provide a seismic evaluation, which can enable firms to engage in mitigation voluntarily. The measure needed to reduce the loss in agriculture is that the government can purchase agricultural products in central and southern Taiwan following the disaster and offer them to survivors in northern Taiwan.     

城市防震减灾计算机信息管理系统设计探讨

本文研究了基于GIS的城市防震减灾计算机信息管理系统的设计,阐明了系统总体设计思想,分析了系统结构设计和主要层面设计以及运行环境,该系统既可为开展城市防震减灾研究工作的工具,又可作为城市防震减灾日常管理工作的工具,及面向各级领导和社会公众宣传防震减灾知识的演播系统。     

The EEPAS forecasting model and the probability of moderate-to-large earthquakes in central Japan

The EEPAS (“Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale”) model is a space–time point-process model based on the precursory scale increase (Ψ) phenomenon and associated predictive scaling relations. It has previously been fitted to the New Zealand earthquake catalogue, and applied successfully in quasi-prospective tests on the CNSS catalogue for California for forecasting earthquakes with magnitudes above 5.75 and on the JMA catalogue of Japan for magnitudes above 6.75. Here we test whether the Ψ scaling relations extend to lower magnitudes, by applying EEPAS to depth-restricted subsets of the NIED catalogue of the Kanto area, central Japan, for magnitudes above 4.75. As in previous studies, the EEPAS model is found to be more informative than a quasi-static baseline model based on proximity to past earthquakes, and much more informative than the stationary uniform Poisson model. The information that it provides is illustrated by maps of the earthquake occurrence rate density, covering magnitudes from 5.0 to 8.0, for the central Japan region as at the beginning of year 2004, using the NIED and JMA catalogues to mid-2003.     

Towards an integrated management framework for emerging disaster risks in Japan

An integrated framework for disaster risk management is presented to cope with the risk of low-probability high-consequence (LPHC) disasters in urban communities. Since the 2000 Tokai flood in Japan, there has been a shift in the management strategy from disaster prevention with a presumed zero risk to disaster reduction with an acceptable risk. The framework consists of: (i) integration of a different categories of risk reduction options in terms of structural and nonstructural measures, regulation and market-oriented measures, (ii) strengthening of the capacity of local communities to make their own management choices for LPHC-type disaster risks, and (iii) promoting the participation of stakeholders throughout the entire cycle of risk management. The interdisciplinary framework is discussed with reference to lessons learned from two recent major flood disasters (the 2000 Tokai flood and the 2004 Niigata flood). To implement the goals of the integrated framework, a participatory platform for disaster risk communication called “Pafrics” has been developed. Preliminary results of the pilot study of participation and risk communication supported by Pafrics are presented.     

PGA distributions and seismic hazard evaluations in three cities in Taiwan

This study first presents the series of peak ground acceleration (PGA) in the three major cities in Taiwan. The PGAs are back-calculated from an earthquake catalog with the use of ground motion models. The maximums of the 84th percentile (mean?+?one standard deviation) PGA since 1900 are 1.03, 0.36, and 0.10?g, in Taipei, Taichung, and Kaohsiung, respectively. Statistical goodness-of-fit testing shows that the series of PGA follow a double-lognormal distribution. Using the verified probability distribution, a probabilistic analysis was developed in this paper, and used to evaluate probability-based seismic hazard. Accordingly, given a PGA equal to 0.5?g, the annual exceedance probabilities are 0.56, 0.46, and 0.23?% in Taipei, Taichung, and Kaohsiung, respectively; for PGA equal to 1.0?g, the probabilities become 0.18, 0.14, and 0.09?%. As a result, this analysis indicates the city in South Taiwan is associated with relatively lower seismic hazard, compared with those in Central and North Taiwan.     

河北省重要城市地下水应急水源地方案建议

根据河北省水文地质条件和地下水开发利用现状,提出了11个重要城市的的13处地下水应急水源地方案建议,分别给出了具体的应急开采约束条件。对13处拟选应急水源地,平原区采用干扰井群法、山区岩溶水采用大井法、山丘区及盆地区采用补给法与排泄法,评价出最大应急开采总量为155.03×104m3/d。最后分析了应急水源地的恢复能力,提出了保护措施建议。     

Construction of collaborative mapping engine for dynamic disaster and emergency response

In the collaborative mapping of disasters, response situations and decisions, it is important to support various emergency responders with a unified platform to help in decision making and coordinating emergency action. However, most existing symbol libraries focus primarily on representing disasters and related information. These libraries lack specific symbols to map response situations and emergency decisions. For representation of dynamic disasters and response factors, these symbols support rich interactive editing after the symbols are mapped. In addition, decision making and mapping of disasters and response situations typically involve different domains of expertise and different responsibilities of map makers. It is essential to construct a collaborative mapping engine that supports disaster and emergency mapping on a collaborative platform. However, most existing methods of collaboration cannot readily support collaboration on symbols containing complex data structures or accommodate rich interactive editing operations. This article proposes a collaborative mapping engine for dynamic disasters and emergency responses. To support collaborative mapping based on complex data structures and rich interactive map symbols, it proposes a method of mapping operation replication to implement collaboration. Additionally, strategies were designed to enhance the efficiency and stability of collaboration. Finally, an experiment was conducted using the Wenchuan earthquake as an example. The results reveal that the engine can contribute to improved mapping efficiency and management during emergencies.     

涪陵江东区块三维水平井优快钻井技术 ——以焦页91平台为例

涪陵二期建产区地质构造比一期更加复杂,目的层埋深更深,水平段倾角变化较大,这些客观因素造成钻井施工困难,钻井周期普遍延长。焦页91平台是部署在二期江东区块西南部的边缘井,地质条件复杂,钻井工程施工难度大。本文深入分析了该平台的第1口井焦页912HF井施工过程中遇到的复杂情况以及造成钻井周期长的主要原因,在后续2口井的施工过程中,针对第1口井出现的问题,采取改进堵漏措施,钻头、螺杆优选,优化井眼轨道,配套提速工具,提高钻井液性能,使用旋转导向工具等技术措施,精细施工,取得了良好的效果,钻头行程和机械钻速大幅提升,钻井周期大大缩短,为涪陵二期江东区块钻井施工提供了经验。