Climatic changes or cycles?

Summary The sums of negative daily means of temperature (centigrade degrees) for the winter season appear to be suitable criteria of the severity or the mildness of winters.K. Knoch published such temperature totals for the homogenized 180 year's temperature series for Berlin, Germany. By means of the standard deviation ()objective numerical limits are established between normal and abnormal winters. Wedefine: winters with a temperature total smaller than the arithmetic mean of the entire series, diminished by aremild; those with a temperature total aresevere. With these definitions a series of severe winters and one of mild winters are determined and investigated.The main result showed that frequencies, average numerical severity (or mildness), average time interval between abnormal winters, and therefore also contingent cyclic intervals depend, to a great extent, upon the magnitude of the usually arbitrarily fixed limits (between normal and abnormal). Theobjective limits, here used, do not offer a reason to surmise a cyclical recurrence of extreme winters — mild or severe — in the case of the Berlin temperature series.Avoiding any deformation of the actual series — as can be caused by intense smoothing procedures — a simple method revealed clearly the existence of asecular climatic change. During the first portion of the 180 years' period, severe winters were prevalent, while during the second portion mild ones prevailed.

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Zusammenfassung Summen negativer Mittel der Tagestemperatur (°C) für die Wintersaison sind wohl geeignet zur Charakteristik der Strenge des Winters.K. Knoch publizierte solche Temperatursummen für die homogen gemachte 180 jährige Berliner Reihe. Mit Hilfe des mittleren, Fehlers werdenobjektive numerische Grenzen zwischen normalen und abnormalen Wintern festgelegt. Winter mit einer negativen Temperatursumme kleiner als das arithmetische Mittel, vermindert um den mittleren Fehler , werden alsmild, solche, bei denen die Temperatursumme den Betrag überstieg, alsstreng definiert. Die zwei so festgelegten Reihen,strenge Winter undmilde Winter wurden in verschiedener Weise untersucht. Als Hauptresultat ergab sich, daß Häufigkeiten, mittlere Strenge, (Milde) und mittleres Zeitintervall zwischen abnormalen Wintern in hohem Grade von der Höhe der üblicherweisewillkürlich angenommenen fixen Grenzen (zwischen normal und abnormal) abhängen. Die hier angewendetenobjektiven Grenzen bieten keinen Grund, bei der Berliner Reihe eine zyklische Wiederkehr einer der beiden extremen Wintertypen zu vermuten.Unter Vermeidung jedweder Verzerrung der Beobachtungsreihe, wie sie eventuell infolge intensiver Glättungsverfahren auftreten kann, führte eine einfache Methode zu dem klaren Bild einer säkularen Klimaänderung. Im ersten Teil der Beobachtungsperiode überwiegen unzweifelhaft die strengen Winter, im zweiten Teil die milden.

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Résumé La rigueur de l'hiver peut se caractériser par la somme des températures moyennes journalières négatives (°C).K. Knoch a publié de telles sommes pour la séries rendue homogène de 180 ans à Berlin. A l'aide de l'erreur moyenne il est possible de fixer des limites numériques objectives entre hivers normaux et anormaux. Par définition un hiver est doux si la somme des températures est inférieure à la moyenne arithmétique diminuée de l'erreur moyenne ; il est rigoureux si cette somme dépasse la valuer . L'auteur étudie à divers points de vue les séries d'hivers doux et rigoureux ainsi définis et aboutit au résultat principal selon lequel les fréquences, la rigueur moyenne et l'intervalle, moyen de temps séparant des hivers anormaux dépendent largement des limites arbitraires adoptées en général entre le normal et l'anormal. Les limitesobjectives adoptées ici ne permettent pas de supposer que la série berlinoise présente un retour périodique de l'un ou l'autre des types extrêmes d'hivers.Es évitant de fausser d'une façon quelconque les séries d'observations comme cela peut se produire par un procédé d'adoucissement abusif, une méthode simple de l'auteur met en évidence une variation climatique séculaire. Dáns la première partie de la période d'observations les hivers rigoureux l'emportent indiscutablement; dans la seconde partie, ce sont les hivers doux.

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With 1 Figure.     

韩国I号多用途卫星介绍

韩国宇航研究所（ＫＡＲＩ）正在研制韩国Ｉ号多用途卫星（ＫＯＭＰＳＡＴ－Ｉ），这颗卫星的有效载荷包括光电摄像机（ＥＯＣ），海洋多光谱扫描成像仪（ＯＳＭＩ），以及空间物理传感器（ＳＰＳ）。卫星重约５００ｋｇ，沿高度为６８５ｋｍ的太阳同步轨道运行，上午１０：５０过境韩国，卫星预计１９９９年发射，设计寿命将超过３年。     

Trading biomass or GHG emission credits?

Global biomass potentials are considerable but unequally distributed over the world. Countries with Kyoto targets could import biomass to substitute for fossil fuels or invest in bio-energy projects in the country of biomass origin and buy the credits (Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI)). This study analyzes which of those options is optimal for transportation fuels and looks for the key variables that influence the result. In two case studies (Mozambique and Brazil), the two trading systems are compared for the amount of credits generated, land-use and associated costs. We found costs of 17–30 euro per ton of carbon for the Brazilian case and economic benefits of 11 to 60 euros per ton of carbon avoided in the Mozambique case. The impact of carbon changes related to direct land-use changes was found to be very significant (both positive and negative) and can currently only be included in emission credit trading, which can largely influence the results. In order to avoid indirect land-use changes (leakage) and consequent GHG emissions, it is crucial that bioenergy crop production is done in balance with improvements of management of agriculture and livestock management. Whatever trading option is economically most attractive depends mainly on the emission baseline in the exporting (emission credit trading) or importing (physical trading) country since both bio- and fossil fuel prices are world market prices in large scale trading systems where transportation costs are low. Physical trading could be preferential since besides the GHG reduction one could also benefit from the energy. It could also generate considerable income sources for exporting countries. This study could contribute to the development of a methodology to deal with bio fuels for transport, in Emission Trading (ET), CDM and the certification of traded bio fuels.     

Wintertime Stratospheric Anomalies-Part I: Warm Pools

The stratospheric worm pools, called the 4-day wave also, are mainly the temperature anomalies in the polar regions of winter hemisphere. It will be shown that their occurrence, propagation speed and specific structure can be explained by the lower frequency coherent heating resulting from the wave interaction in the breaking layers of the stratosphere. Although their vertical phase slope is negligibly small, the warm pools cannot be considered as a barotropic anomaly.     

Warmer climate: less or more snow?

Changes in snow amount, as measured by the water equivalent of the snow pack (SWE), are studied using simulations of 21st century climate by 20 global climate models. Although the simulated warming makes snow season to shorten from its both ends in all of Eurasia and North America, SWE at the height of the winter generally increases in the coldest areas. Elsewhere, snow decreases throughout the winter. The average borderline between increasing and decreasing midwinter SWE coincides broadly with the ?20°C isotherm in late 20th century November–March mean temperature, although with some variability between different areas. On the colder side of this isotherm, an increase in total precipitation generally dominates over reduced fraction of solid precipitation and more efficient melting, and SWE therefore increases. On the warmer side, where the phase of winter precipitation and snowmelt are more sensitive to the simulated warming, the reverse happens. The strong temperature dependence of the simulated SWE changes suggests that projections of SWE change could be potentially improved by taking into account biases in simulated present-day winter temperatures. A probabilistic cross verification exercise supports this suggestion.     

Sea‐level rise or coastal subsidence?

Abstract

Relative sea‐level rise along the Atlantic coast of North America is observed to be about 30 cm/century. No more than half of this rise can be explained by eustatic changes. It is improbable that the remainder is explicable by steric changes. It is therefore almost certainly produced by a systematic subsidence of that coast. The required rate of at least 15 cm/ century is very large by long‐term geologic standards. However, it is comparable with rates measured in relevelling programs, and we must recognize that we live in extraordinary times geologically in that ice‐ages are unusual, and we are in a very warm portion of the present ice‐age. If at least half of the observed relative sea‐level rise is caused by subsidence, it seems reasonable to suppose that nearly all, except for the effects of the observed melting of small glaciers, is so caused. Sea‐level rise is so variable in other parts of the world that there also it is better explained by crustal movements than by eustatic sea‐level rise.

The doubt that these considerations place on the usual interpretation of past sea‐level rise extends to consideration of a possible future rise brought ori by climate change. It is uncertainty that has clearly increased, not eustatic sea‐level.     

卫星遥感人工增雨作业条件 I: 对流云

利用卫星反演技术和云微物理分析方法,针对云微物理结构和降水形成过程探讨可播性、播撒方式,通过对不同类型对流云分析,归纳出4类可播云系,分析表明:1)重污染深厚对流云,当云底粒子有效半径小于7 μm、凝结增长带深厚、降水启动厚度大于20℃、碰并增长带薄、无雨胚带、晶化温度低于-30℃时,可播撒吸湿性核或播撒AgI.2)强上升冰雹云,若云外型强对流特征明显、各增长带增长缓慢、无雨胚带、晶化温度低于-30℃,且云顶附近存在明显的有效半径减小带,可播撒吸湿性核或播撒AgI.3)强上升强降水对流云,云底滴较大,通常大于10 μm,碰并增长较为充分,晶化温度低,一般低于-30℃,冰晶化延迟明显,冷云降水发展不充分,通过在0℃层附近播撒AgI促进冷云降水.4)污染性浅薄对流云,当云底有效半径小于10 μm、凝结增长带深厚、碰并增长带薄、无雨胚带、云顶有效半径小于14 μm、云厚3～6km,可播撒吸湿性核.     

The new climate discourse: Alarmist or alarming?

The discourse on climate change is in part divided between a sense of alarm and a sense of alarmism in assessments of the magnitude and urgency of the problem. The divide in the discourse among climatologists relates to tensions in the use of key phrases to describe climate change. This article reviews evidence to support claims that climate change can be viewed as ‘catastrophic’, ‘rapid’, ‘urgent’, ‘irreversible’, ‘chaotic’, and ‘worse than previously thought’. Each of these terms are imprecise and may convey a range of meaning. The method used here is to assess whether the conventional understandings of these terms are broadly consistent or inconsistent with the science, or else ambiguous. On balance, these terms are judged to be consistent with the science. Factors which divide climatologists on this discourse are also reviewed. The divide over a sense of urgency relates to disagreement on the manner and rate at which ice sheets breakdown in response to sustained warming. Whether this rate is fast or slow, the amount of time available to reduce emissions sufficient to prevent ice sheet breakdown is relatively short, given the moderate levels of warming required and the inertia of the climate and energy systems. A new discourse is emerging which underscores the scope of the problem and the scope and feasibility of solutions. This discourse differentiates itself from existing discourses which view the magnitudes of the problem or of solutions as prohibitive.     

or软件在工程制图教学中的应用赵耀虹

件系统可为工程制图教学课件提供高质量的素材。Application of Autodesk Invento     

GStar I型自动土壤水分仪误差原因分析

为提高GStar I型自动土壤水分观测仪数据质量,利用2012—2013年渭南市8个气象站土壤水分观测固定段自动与人工观测数据进行对比分析,并从标定区间及方法、土壤冻结、仪器跳变、观测环境、人工取土等6个方面分析误差原因,得出提高数据质量的方法与建议。

     

Diffuse radiation,twilight, and photochemistry — I

A photochemical scheme which includes a detailed treatment of multiple scattering up to solar zenith angles of 96° (developed for use in a GCM) has been used to study partitioning within chemical families. Attention is drawn to the different zenith angle dependence of diffuse radiation for the two spectral regions <310 nm and >310 nm. The effect that this has on the so-called 40 km ozone problem is discussed. The importance of correctly including multiple scattering for polar ozone studies is emphasised.     

中国气象局气象科研院所访美考察总结（I）

根据中美大气科技合作联合工作组第13次会谈纪要，应美国天气局的邀请，以中国气象局人事司萧永生司长为团长的气象科研院所代表团一行11人于2003年9月7～21日对美国进行了访问。     

区域酸性沉降的数值研究 I. 模式

建立了一个三维时变的欧拉型区域酸性污染物沉降模式，模式包括源排放、平流输送、湍流扩散、干沉积、气相化学、液相化学及湿清除等六大部分。考虑到计算条件的承受能力和应用性的要求，在把握酸沉降形成的关键过程的前提下，合理地简化设计模式。相对于国内已有的工作，本模式在干沉积、气相化学、液相化学和湿清除等方面均有所改进。     

NOx or VOC Limitation in East German Ozone Plumes?

The ozone forming potential of VOCs and NO_x for plumes observed from several cities and a power plant in eastern Germany was investigated. A closed box model with a gas phase photochemical reaction mechanism was employed to simulate several scenarios based upon aircraft observations. In several of the scenarios, the initial concentrations of NO_x, VOCs, and SO₂, were reduced to study the factors limiting the O₃ production. Ozone production was limited by the initial VOC concentrations for all of the simulated plumes. Higher O₃ concentrations were produced with reduced initial NO_x. In one sample with high SO₂ mixing ratios (>100 ppb), SO₂ was also identified as a significant contributor to the production of O₃.     

Die luftelektrischen Verhältnisse im Küstenaerosol I

Zusammenfassung Um Einblicke in die elektrischen Eigenschaften des Meeres- und Küstenaerosols zu erhalten, wurden an der Nordseeküste das luftelektrische Feld und die elektrische Raumladungsdichte am Erdboden registriert und hauptsächlich der Zusammenhang mit Wind, Brandung und Seegang untersucht. Die gegenüber Festlandstationen erhöhten und stark schwankenden Feldwerte bei Seewind lassen sich durch die gemessenen positiven elektrischen Raumladungen in der Meeresluft erklären. Diese werden über das Festland transportiert und liefern einen Beitrag zum Schönwetterfeld auf eine noch unbestimmte Entfernung. Die positiven Ladungen müssen zum größten Teil in der Brandung entstanden sein. Die Frage, ob die von vielen Autoren gefundenen, auf dem offenen Meere entstandenen Aerosolteilchen elektrisch geladen sind, wird diskutiert.

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Summary In order to study the electrical qualities of the aerosol of the sea and the coast the atmospheric electrical field and the space charge density have been recorded at the surface on the coast of the North Sea, especially in connection with the wind, the surf and the motion of the sea. The values of the field which have been found higher and more variable than those on the continent at sea wind can be explained by the positive electric space charges measured in the sea air. These space charges are transported over the continent and influence the fine-weather field over a certain distance. Most of the positive charges probably arise in the land-swell. The question is discussed whether the maritime aerosol-particles which are found by many authors have an electrical charge.

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Résumé Dans l'intention d'étudier les propriétés électriques de l'aérosol marin et côtier, on a enregistré le champ et la densité spatiale électriques au sol sur la côte de la Mer du Nord; puis on les a examinés en rapport avec le vent, le ressac et la houle. Les valeurs élevées et très variables du champ par brise de mer s'expliquent par les charges spatiales positives de l'air marin qui sont transportées sur la terre ferme et forment une partie du champ de beau temps jusqu'à une distance vers l'intérieur encore inconnue. Les charges positives prennent probablement naissance en grande partie dans l'embrun du ressac. L'auteur discute la question de savoir si les particules d'aérosol nées sur la mer et trouvées par de nombreux auteurs sont chargées électriquement on non.

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Mit 5 Textabbildungen     

人工触发闪电放电过程分析：I.先导放电过程

利用人工触发闪电电场,电流和闪电通道亮度高速摄像观测资料,分析了第一次回击前衔导过程的放电特性,结果指出,对于空中触发,先导传输具有“双向”特征,由于下行先导发展,先导通道电流分布具有不均匀性,连接导线汽化都发生在上行先导阶段。人工闪电第一次回击虽然与自然闪电继后回击特性十分相似,但两者放电特征仍有差别,前者具有曾长的连续电流过程。