Understanding water pollution management: Evidence and insights from incorporating cultural theory in social network analysis

Social network analysis gives a rigid assessment of network structure while cultural theory helps explain management outcomes in more detail. The combination of these methods provides significant and alternative insights about the complexity of water pollution management. Applied in the case study of the Calumpang Watershed in the Philippines, two types of relations were evaluated, namely, resource sharing and cooperative activities. Factors affecting cooperation and the creation of bridges were assessed in social network analysis, while cultural theory was used to reveal the underlying views of key actors on the nature of the river and its management. Evidence showed that cooperation was significantly influenced by resource sharing regardless of institutional affiliation, while bridges were created by becoming the pools of information and resources in the network. Using cultural theory, this study found out that local government officials dominantly have a mixture of hierarchist and egalitarian views characterizing belief in both rule-bound and group-motivated actions to solve the water pollution problem. However, their egalitarian views on management did not manifest in the current network. The study concludes that collaborative partnerships for water pollution management can be facilitated by promoting resource flow, utilizing influential bridges in the network, and understanding the unconventional values of government actors. Combining social network analysis and cultural theory is recommended to generate a more critical assessment of the institutional complexity of pollution and other water issues in watersheds.     

Climate shocks and political violence

The dominant discourse on the security implications of climate change has asserted that acute environmental scarcity—such as that caused by drought—causes political violence. In contrast, we argue that there are good reasons why water scarcity might have a pacifying effect on armed conflict, and that political violence should be more prevalent during periods of comparatively better agro-climatic conditions. Political violence is more prevalent when basic needs are met and when the tactical environment is more conducive to attacks—conditions that hold when water is comparatively abundant. Empirically, this paper explores the relationship between environmental scarcity and political violence in a global sample of countries, 1970–2006. We find that water abundance is positively correlated with political violence, and that this relationship is stronger in less developed, more agriculturally dependent societies. These findings are robust to several different operationalizations of our variables. We conclude with a brief discussion of the policy implications of our findings.     

Beyond scarcity: Rethinking water,climate change and conflict in the Sudans

This article develops a new framework for understanding environment-conflict relations, on both theoretical grounds and through a qualitative historical analysis of the links between water and conflict in the states of Sudan and South Sudan. Theoretically, the article critiques the dominant emphases on ‘scarcity’, ‘state failure’ and ‘under-development’ within discussions of environmental security, and proposes an alternative model of environment-conflict relations centring on resource abundance and globally-embedded processes of state-building and development. Empirically, it examines three claimed (or possible) linkages between water and conflict in the Sudans: over trans-boundary waters of the Nile; over the links between internal resource scarcities and civil conflict; and over the internal conflict impacts of water abundance and development. We find that there exists only limited evidence in support of the first two of these linkages, but plentiful evidence that water abundance, and state-directed processes of economic development and internal colonisation relating to water, have had violent consequences. We conclude that analysts and policymakers should pay more attention to the impacts of resource abundance, militarised state power and global political economic forces in their assessments of the potential conflict impacts of environmental and especially climate change.     

Changing mechanism of global water scarcity events: Impacts of socioeconomic changes and inter-annual hydro-climatic variability

Changes in available fresh water resources, together with changes in water use, force our society to adapt continuously to water scarcity conditions. Although several studies assess the role of long-term climate change and socioeconomic developments on global water scarcity, the impact of inter-annual climate variability is less understood and often neglected. This paper presents a global scale water scarcity assessment that accounts for both temporal changes in socioeconomic conditions and hydro-climatic variability over the period 1960–2000. We thereby visualized for the first time possible over- and underestimations that may have been made in previous water scarcity assessments due to the use long-term means in their analyses. Subsequently, we quantified the relative contribution of hydro-climatic variability and socioeconomic developments on changing water scarcity conditions. We found that hydro-climatic variability and socioeconomic changes interact and that they can strengthen or attenuate each other, both regionally and at the global scale. In general, hydro-climatic variability can be held responsible for the largest share (>79%) of the yearly changes in global water scarcity, whilst only after six to ten years, socioeconomic developments become the largest driver of change. Moreover, our results showed that the growth in the relative contribution of socioeconomic developments to changing water scarcity conditions stabilizes towards 2000 and that the impacts of hydro-climatic variability remain significantly important. The findings presented in this paper could be of use for water managers and policy makers coping with water scarcity issues since correct information both on the current situation and regarding the relative contribution of different mechanisms shaping future conditions is key to successful adaptation and risk reduction.     

Assisted network governance: An inclusive innovation to mitigate extreme water scarcity

We study a local innovation of natural resource governance in Chile in times of extreme water scarcity. Through the issuance of a scarcity decree, the government obliges local water user associations (WUAs) to reach viable water redistribution agreements in order to avoid being overruled by the state. In the Aconcagua River, the government together with the WUAs created the Executive Committee, where only the WUAs have a vote, but private and public stakeholders participate in the process of negotiating water use agreements. Grounded on thematic coding of the detailed minutes of over 80 committee meetings since its inception, we examine the workings of a new local model of Assisted Network Governance (ANG). Based on content and social network analysis of over 1,000 directed interactions among committee members, we find that ANG, as an element of broader hybrid governance, has not only produced viable agreements for immediate water redistribution, but has also facilitated longer-term system improvements by building mutual understanding, resolving conflicts, and mobilizing external resources to improve infrastructure. We conclude that ANG helps accomplish common objectives in the field of natural resources under conditions of extreme water scarcity.     

Incorporating resilience into sustainability indicators: An example for the urban water sector

The development and use of indicators is common practice in efforts to promote urban sustainability. Indicators used to measure urban sustainability tend to focus narrowly on describing the current state of the urban system. Although a time series analysis using these indicators may lend insights into trends towards or away from certain ‘sustainability’ goals, existing indicators of urban sustainability do not provide information on the ability or the likelihood that the current system state can be maintained or improved over time. Indicators that incorporate a measure of system resilience would provide useful information on system sustainability. Through development of a new indicator, Water Provision Resilience (WPR), we provide an example of how measures of resilience could be incorporated into sustainability indicators. The new indicator adds six color codings to the existing indicator ‘percent of the population with access to safe water.’ Each color coding represents a measure of the ability of the water system to maintain or improve the current percent of the population with access to safe water in key areas of the water provision sector: supply, infrastructure, service provision, finances, water quality and governance. The metric is then applied to three cities. The goal in developing this metric is to provide a starting point for re-thinking the metrics used to measure progress and sustainability in order to incorporate the ability to absorb and adapt to stresses into sustainability analysis.     

Spatially explicit assessment of water embodied in European trade: A product-level multi-regional input-output analysis

Responsible water management in an era of globalised supply chains needs to consider both local and regional water balances and international trade. In this paper, we assess the water footprints of total final demand in the EU-27 at a very detailed product level and spatial scale—an important step towards informed water policy. We apply the multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model EXIOBASE, including water data, to track the distribution of water use along product supply chains within and across countries. This enables the first spatially-explicit MRIO analysis of water embodied in Europe’s external trade for almost 11,000 watersheds world-wide, tracing indirect (“virtual”) water consumption in one country back to those watersheds where the water was actually extracted. We show that the EU-27 indirectly imports large quantities of blue and green water via international trade of products, most notably processed crop products, and these imports far exceed the water used from domestic sources. The Indus, Danube and Mississippi watersheds are the largest individual contributors to the EU-27’s final water consumption, which causes large environmental impacts due to water scarcity in both the Indus and Mississippi watersheds. We conclude by sketching out policy options to ensure that sustainable water management within and outside European borders is not compromised by European consumption.     

Who governs here? Informal resource extraction,state enforcement,and conflict in Ghana

Over the past two decades, “illegal” natural resource extraction has become a significant driver of environmental change and social conflict across the Global South. In response, numerous Sub-Saharan African states have engaged in governance reforms that heed calls to securitize – or, establish and consolidate state control over – natural resources. In Ghana, securitization has served to entrench the informal economy as domestic producers, marginalized in the process of reform, continue to utilize non-state institutions to maintain access. While the Ghanaian state has branded “illegal” resource extraction a major environmental, social, and national security concern, it has responded to this threat unevenly; it has violently enforced its authority in some contexts but remained relatively indifferent in others. This article explores the phenomenon of selective enforcement to explain patterns of violence that have emerged between state and society in response to both securitization and informality. Drawing on a multimethod approach, I find that natural resource governance authority remains fragmented across resource contexts, and that the configuration of authority and interests on the ground shapes the extent of state intervention. I propose a natural resource typology that identifies when the state is most likely to enforce its authority, and the degree of violent conflict likely to result. Ultimately, I contend that domestic patterns of enforcement are shaped primarily by: 1) competition with local power holders over resource entitlements and 2) global conservation and extraction priorities. While specific to Ghana, this argument can provide important insights into the relationship between informal extraction, state enforcement, and social conflict in other Global South contexts.     

Sources of human insecurity in the face of hydro-climatic change

Policy agendas increasingly respond to the perceived security threats of climate change, not least via its effects on water. Yet, solid links between climate, water, conflict and security have seldom been substantiated empirically. Drawing from the conceptual framework and empirical results of the EC-funded research project CLICO (‘Climate Change, Hydro-Conflict and Human Security’) which is presented in this Special Issue, this opening article looks at the conditions that shape conflict and insecurity, with a focus on the role of adaptation policies. We find three main sources of human insecurity: first, democratic deficits, which are more influential than hydro-climatic stresses; second, mal-adaptations, i.e. adaptations that have adverse effects for the security of some groups; and third, structural violence, often related to economic and state development. There is a systemic contradiction insofar as the pursuit of adaptation through state-led economic growth projects ends up producing new insecurities for parts of the population. Adaptation to hydro-climatic change, therefore, is likely to be a contested and painful process. Research on security and climate change must move beyond narrow investigations of conflict and study the links between structural violence and human insecurity, in particular the conditions and processes that reduce the options available to deal with potential insecurities.     

Institutional Adaptation of Water Resource Infrastructures to Climate Change in Eastern Ontario

Institutional barriers and bridges to local climate change impacts adaptation affecting small rural municipalities and Conservation Authorities (CAs are watershed agencies) in Eastern Ontario (Canada) are examined, and elements of a community-based adaptation strategy related to water infrastructures are proposed as a case-study in community adaptation to climate change. No general water scarcity is expected for the region even under unusually dry weather scenarios. Localized quantity and quality problems are likely to occur especially in groundwater recharge areas. Some existing institutions can be relied on by municipalities to build an effective adaptation strategy based on a watershed/region perspective, on their credibility, and on their expertise. Windows of opportunity or framing issues are offered at the provincial level, the most relevant one in a federal state, by municipal emergency plan requirements and pending watershed source water protection legislation. Voluntary and soon to be mandated climate change mitigation programs at the federal level are other ones.     

IPCC AR6报告解读：气候变化与水安全

保障水安全是应对和缓解气候变化的核心问题,也是实现可持续发展的前提。IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第二工作组报告单独设立第四章“水”,分析了气候变化对全球水循环的影响,评估了水循环变化对人类社会和生态系统的影响,指出了当前与未来的水安全风险,分析了与水相关适应措施的收益与成效。报告显示,人类活动导致的气候变化加速了全球水文循环,对水安全产生负面影响,面临水安全风险的人口与地区增多,并增加了由社会经济因素造成的水资源脆弱性。水安全风险随全球升温水平的升高而增加,在水安全脆弱地区表现更为显著。将全球升温限制在1.5℃可有效降低未来的水安全风险,有助于实现水安全、可持续发展和具有气候恢复力的发展三重目标。我国水安全问题突出,急需在“灰-绿”基础设施生态水文效应、三维水资源短缺、水-粮食-能源耦合、地球系统模拟器研发应用等方面重点开展研究工作。     

Circumspection, reciprocity, and optimal carbon prices

Assessments of the benefits of climate change mitigation—and thus of the appropriate stringency of greenhouse gas emissions abatement—depend upon ethical, legal, and political economic considerations. Global climate change mitigation is often represented as a repeated prisoners’ dilemma in which the net benefits of sustained global cooperation exceed the net benefits of uncooperative unilateral action for any given actor. Global cooperation can be motivated either by circumspection—a decision to account for the damages one’s own actions inflict upon others—or by the expectation of reciprocity from others. If the marginal global benefits of abatement are approximately constant in total abatement, the domestically optimal price approaches the global cooperative optimum linearly with increasing circumspection and reciprocity. Approximately constant marginal benefits are expected if climate damages are quadratic in temperature and if the airborne fraction of carbon emissions is constant. If, on the other hand, damages increase with temperature faster than quadratically or carbon sinks weaken significantly with increasing CO₂ concentrations, marginal benefits will decline with abatement. In this case, the approach to the global optimum is concave and less than full circumspection and/or reciprocity can lead to optimal domestic abatement close to the global optimum.     

Climate policy at the local level: Insights from California

Local governments in the United States have been hotbeds of climate change activity. Recently, states have sought to incorporate these primarily voluntary actions into broader climate change mitigation programs. Using the example of California, a national leader in U.S. climate policy, this article examines the scope for effectiveness of local climate action and assesses factors related to adoption of local climate policies. The analysis draws on two original surveys of city and county governments, designed to learn about adoption of comprehensive policy tools (emission inventories and climate action plans) and programs in specific areas (energy, water, land use, transportation). Adoption rates are fairly high and growing; by mid 2010 roughly 70% of all jurisdictions were already engaged or planning to engage in comprehensive climate actions, up from roughly 50% in 2008. The adoption of specific programs varies with the degree of local government authority in different sectors, and is generally higher for programs targeting municipal facilities and operations than those targeting residents and businesses. Population size, household income, and strong support from local leaders and the public are all associated with higher rates of adoption, particularly for comprehensive actions. Partisan attitudes are more important for comprehensive actions than for programs in specific areas such as energy efficiency and renewable energy, mirroring the findings of state and national public opinion surveys, which find broader support for actions like clean energy than for explicit climate change-oriented actions. Qualitative analysis reveals additional keys to success, including partnering with other local governments and private organizations and leveraging cost savings and other potential co-benefits of action. As states move to incorporate local actions into broader plans, mandates will also play an increasing role in setting a floor for local efforts.     

Water borrowing is consistently practiced globally and is associated with water-related system failures across diverse environments

Water problems due to scarcity, inaccessibility, or poor quality are a major barrier to household functioning, livelihood, and health globally. Household-to-household water borrowing has been posited as a strategy to alleviate unmet water needs. However, the prevalence and predictors of this practice have not been systematically examined. Therefore, we tested whether water borrowing occurs across diverse global contexts with varying water problems. Second, we tested if household water borrowing is associated with unmet water needs, perceived socio-economic status (SES), and/or water-related system failures, and if water access moderated (or changed) these relationships. Using survey data from the Household Water Insecurity Experiences (HWISE) study from 21 sites in 19 low- and middle-income countries (n = 5495 households), we found that household-to-household water borrowing was practiced in all 21 sites, with 44.7% (11.4–85.4%) of households borrowing water at least once the previous month. Multilevel mixed-effect logistic regression models demonstrate that high unmet water needs (odds ratio [OR] = 2.86], 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.09–3.91), low perceived SES (OR = 1.09; 95% CI = 1.05–1.13), and water-related system failures (23–258%) were all significantly associated with higher odds of water borrowing. Significant interactions (all p < 0.01) between water access, unmet water needs, and water-related system failures on water borrowing indicate that water access moderates these relationships. These data are the first to demonstrate that borrowing water is commonly used by households around the world to cope with water insecurity. Due to how prevalent water borrowing is, its implications for social dynamics, resource allocation, and health and well-being are likely vast but severely under-recognized.     

Climate change, water resources, and the politics of adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa

Through an examination of global climate change models combined with hydrological data on deteriorating water quality in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), we elucidate the ways in which the MENA countries are vulnerable to climate-induced impacts on water resources. Adaptive governance strategies, however, remain a low priority for political leaderships in the MENA region. To date, most MENA governments have concentrated the bulk of their resources on large-scale supply side projects such as desalination, dam construction, inter-basin water transfers, tapping fossil groundwater aquifers, and importing virtual water. Because managing water demand, improving the efficiency of water use, and promoting conservation will be key ingredients in responding to climate-induced impacts on the water sector, we analyze the political, economic, and institutional drivers that have shaped governance responses. While the scholarly literature emphasizes the importance of social capital to adaptive governance, we find that many political leaders and water experts in the MENA rarely engage societal actors in considering water risks. We conclude that the key capacities for adaptive governance to water scarcity in MENA are underdeveloped.     

Overcoming cross-scale challenges to climate change adaptation for local government: a focus on Australia

This paper aims to identify key cross-scale challenges to planned adaptation within the context of local government in Australia, and suggest enabling actions to overcome such challenges. Many of the impacts of climate change and variability have or will be experienced at the local level. Local governments are embedded in a larger governance context that has the potential to limit the effectiveness of planned adaptation initiatives on the ground. This study argues that research on constraints and barriers to adaptation must place greater attention to understanding the broader multi-governance system and cross-scale constraints that shape adaptation at the local government scale. The study identified seven key enabling actions for overcoming cross-scale challenges faced by local governments in Australia when undertaking climate change adaptation planning and implementation. A central conclusion of this study is that a cooperative and collaborative approach is needed where joint recognition of the scale of the issue and its inherent cross-scale complexities are realised. Many of the barriers or constraints to adaptation planning are interlinked, requiring a whole government approach to adaptation planning. The research suggests a stronger role at the state and national level is required for adaptation to be facilitated and supported at the local level.     

The exposure of global base metal resources to water criticality,scarcity and climate change

Mining operations are vital to sustaining our modern way of life and are often located in areas that have limited water supplies or are at an increased risk of the effects of climate change. However, few studies have considered the interactions between the mining industry and water resources on a global scale. These interactions are often complex and site specific, and so an understanding of the local water contexts of individual mining projects is required before associated risks can be adequately assessed. Here, we address this important issue by providing the first quantitative assessment of the contextual water risks facing the global base metal mining industry, focusing on the location of known copper, lead, zinc and nickel resources.The relative exposure of copper, lead-zinc and nickel resources to water risks were assessed by considering a variety of spatial water indices, with each providing a different perspective of contextual water risks. Provincial data was considered for water criticality (CRIT), supply risk (SR), vulnerability to supply restrictions (VSR) and the environmental implications (EI) of water use. Additionally, watershed or sub-basin scale data for blue water scarcity (BWS), the water stress index (WSI), the available water remaining (AWaRe), basin internal evaporation recycling (BIER) ratios and the water depletion index (WDI) were also considered, as these have particular relevance for life cycle assessment and water footprint studies. All of the indices indicate that global copper resources are more exposed to water risks than lead-zinc or nickel resources, in part due to the large copper endowment of countries such as Chile and Peru that experience high water criticality, stress and scarcity. Copper resources are located in regions where water consumption is more likely to contribute to long-term decreases in water availability and also where evaporation is less likely to re-precipitate in the same drainage basin to cause surface-runoff or groundwater recharge.The global resource datasets were also assessed against regional Köppen-Geiger climate classifications for the observed period 1951–2000 and changes to 2100 using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 emission scenarios. The results indicate that regions containing copper resources are also more exposed to likely changes in climate than those containing lead-zinc or nickel resources. Overall, regions containing 27–32% (473–574 Mt Cu) of copper, 17–29% (139–241 Mt Pb + Zn) of lead-zinc and 6–13% (19–39 Mt Ni) of nickel resources may have a major climate re-classification as a result of anthropogenic climate change. A further 15–23% (262–412 Mt) of copper, 23–32% (195–270 Mt) of lead-zinc and 29–32% (84–94 Mt) of nickel are exposed to regional precipitation or temperature sub-classification changes. These climate changes are likely to alter the water balance, water quality and infrastructure risks at mining and mineral processing operations. Effective management of long-term changes to mine site water and climate risks requires the further adoption of anticipatory risk management strategies.     

Farmers’ coping response to the low flows in the lower Yellow River: A case study of temporal dimensions of vulnerability

Water scarcity in northern China has been a topic of concern in China for many years, but the increased frequency and duration of “no-flow” events in the Yellow River in the 1990s created a flurry of recent activity in the academic and policy arenas. These low-flow events severely disrupted the supply of irrigation water for agriculture in the lower reaches of the Yellow River and posed a substantial threat to farmers’ livelihoods. Within a broader effort to assess farmers’ vulnerability to water shortages, this qualitative research focuses on the coping mechanisms and adaptive strategies adopted by farming households in three villages in Shandong Province (Ma, Ding, and Xing). With increasing water stress and other stresses from land degradation and lack of market access, farmers’ coping mechanisms have evolved, expanding from one-time adjustments to long-term adaptations, and switching focus from securing reliable water sources to improving irrigation efficiency and diversifying both on-farm and off-farm production. The three villages have different vulnerability profiles and adopted different patterns of adaptive processes that reveal the key roles played by community leaders and the early innovators. The research presented here contributes a temporal and dynamic dimension to the study of vulnerability which is largely missing from the current literature, and provides practical insights about how to improve farmers’ adaptive capacities in the face of water shortages in northern China.     

Alleviating barriers to urban climate change adaptation through international cooperation

International cooperation on climate change adaptation is regarded as one of the major avenues to reduce vulnerability in developing countries. Nevertheless, it remains unclear which design properties of international arrangements match with specific problems in local adaptation processes. This paper analyses conditions and institutional design options under which international cooperation can facilitate climate adaptation in urban areas in developing countries. We conduct a qualitative meta-analysis of empirical evidence from 23 cases. Using the archetype approach, we identify re-appearing barriers and change factors in urban squatter settlements and municipal public sectors in developing countries. We characterise five generic modes of international cooperation for climate adaptation based on UNFCCC documents, process observation, and literature review. Combining these analyses, we develop testable propositions that explain how specific design options of international arrangements can alleviate barriers and make use of change factors for urban adaptation in developing countries. We find, first, that international cooperation has the most potential to tackle adaptation barriers in squatter settlements if its institutional mechanisms support improvements of procedures and rights in localised state–society interactions. Second, national or regional centres of competence may foster endogenous dynamics in municipal public sectors. Third, national adaptation policies can enable and incentivise municipal adaptation. Fourth, flexible indicators of adaptation benefits are instruments to tailor international decision making and monitoring systems to local needs. We conclude that these insights, the archetypes approach, and a multi-level study design can be used to advance research on international cooperation, barriers, and success factors for climate change adaptation.     

The Tuvalu Syndrome

Geoengineering research has historically been inhibited by fears that the perceived availability of a technological fix for climate change, such as the deployment of space-based deflectors, may undermine greenhouse gas abatement efforts. I develop a game theoretic model to show that the credible threat of unilateral geoengineering may instead strengthen global abatement and lead to a self-enforcing climate treaty with full participation. A ‘rogue nation’ may wish to unilaterally geoengineer if it faces extreme climate damages (as with Tuvalu), or if there are minimal local side effects from geoengineering, such as hydrological cycle disruption or stratospheric ozone depletion. However, the costly global side effects of geoengineering may make it individually rational for other countries to reduce emissions to the level where this rogue nation no longer wishes to unilaterally geoengineer. My results suggest a need to model the impacts of a “selfish geoengineer” intent only on maximizing net domestic benefits, as well as a “benevolent geoengineer” out to restore global mean temperature and minimize global side effects.