基于历史TLE的空间目标轨道预报误差演化规律研究

北美防空司令部(North American Aerospace Defense Command, NORAD)发布的双行根数(Two Line Element, TLE)是广大航天工作者最常用的轨道根数,与其对应的轨道模型是SGP4/SDP4 (Simplified General Perturbation Version 4/Simplified Deep-space Perturbation Version 4)解析模型.由于TLE中并没有包含相应的轨道精度信息,编目轨道的应用范围受到很大的限制.基于Space-Track网站发布的历史TLE数据和配套的SGP4/SDP4动力学模型,采用定轨标预报的方法统计并生成了大量目标轨道的预报误差,通过对预报轨道的时间区间划分给出了每个目标的预报误差随预报时间变化的拟合系数,并进一步对不同类型轨道预报误差的演化规律和特征进行了分类讨论,给出了4种轨道类型目标的轨道预报误差随时间演化的平均解析模型,为拓展双行根数的应用提供有价值的参考.     

SGP4/SDP4模型预报可靠性分析

以激光测距资料精密定轨结果为参考轨道,分析了两种典型版本SGP4/SDP4模型对低、中、高轨道卫星预报误差的放大规律,当预报超过一定的圈数后误差成指数增长.数值试验结果表明:对低、中、高轨卫星预报误差无显著放大圈数分别是(h≤300 km),40;(300 km≤h≤1 200 km),150;(1 200 km≤h≤10 000 km),300;半同步卫星(19 000km≤h≤22 000 km),55;同步卫星(33 000 km≤h≤38 000 km),10.并图示出参考卫星轨道预报误差的放大规律,供工程中利用双行根数和SGP4/SDP4模型作轨道预报时参考.     

双行根数编目体系轨道误差研究

大量空间目标的真实轨道无法精确知道,目前只能通过跟踪观测的数据进行定轨来得到估计轨道,而估计的轨道就会有误差.双行根数(TLE)是广泛使用的一种特殊编目轨道根数,其配套的轨道模型为Simplified General Perturbations 4(SGP4)/Simplified Deep-space Perturbations 4(SDP4)模型.编目轨道的精度主要依赖于相应的观测模型和动力学模型,这些模型一般都不会非常准确,往往会有误差,有些误差可能直接导致编目定轨结果在局部为有偏估计.通过理论研究和仿真模拟,分析了动力学模型中地球非球形引力位田谐摄动项对编目轨道精度的影响,发现TLE编目轨道中存在随时间周期变化的系统差,该系统误差甚至可以达到千米量级.几何构型较好的测站分布在一定程度上可以削弱编目定轨中产生的系统误差,由于力学模型的限制,无法彻底消除.     

日月轨道计算对TLE深空编目目标预报精度的影响

双行根数(Two Line Element, TLE)作为一类广泛使用的空间物体编目数据, 其预报精度和误差特性是TLE编目 在空间碎片研究中所要关注的问题之一. TLE编目需要配合SGP4/SDP4 (Simplified General Perturbations 4/Simplified Deep Space 4)模型进行轨道预报, 对深空物体来说, 主要考虑带谐项$J_2$、$J_3$、$J_4$摄动、 第三体日月摄动和特殊轨道共振问题修正等. 其中, SGP4/SDP4模型第三体摄动计算时, 对日月轨道近似采用了长期进动根数和 简单平运动的方式, 在外推10d时存在约2$^\circ$--3${^\circ     

利用低轨卫星激光资料检验地球引力场模型的精度

地球引力场模型是人造卫星轨道计算中最重要的动力学模型之一.近年来国际上空间重力卫星计划取得了极大成功,相继推出了一系列新的引力场模型.从近地卫星轨道计算的角度检验了2种传统引力场模型(JGM3,EGM96)和4种新引力场模型(EIGENCHAMP05S,GGM03S,GOCE02S,EGM2008)的精度,利用4颗近地卫星的激光测距资料进行精密定轨预报,统计比较了不同模型的定轨残差和预报误差.结果表明:(1)4种新引力场模型精度基本在同一水平,对于近地卫星定轨精度普遍优于9 cm,最高达到5cm,相对于JGM3和EGM96模型有明显改善;(2)以JGM3模型为基准,EGM96模型的精度有所提高,2000年以后的4种新模型的精度则普遍提高了12%～47%(定轨)和63%(预报).70阶之前定轨精度随着模型阶次增大而提高,70阶以后定轨精度基本保持稳定,这表明对于近地卫星轨道计算而言,70阶的引力场已经能够满足厘米级的精度需求.     

地月DRO星载光学测量近地小行星轨道确定

针对地基光学监测系统对近地小行星在近太阳方向的监测存在盲区的问题,提出了远距离逆行轨道(Distant Retrograde Orbit,DRO)天基光学平台对近地小行星进行跟踪定轨的方法.通过可视性分析,筛选仿真观测数据,利用美国宇航局喷气推进实验室(Jet Propulsion Laboratory,JPL)公布的小行星初始轨道信息对不同轨道类型的目标天体进行轨道确定,将计算结果与参考轨道对比分析.仿真结果表明:在测量精度2角秒,定轨弧长3年的情况下,DRO平台对仿真算例中所选择的近地小行星的定轨精度可以达到几十公里量级,其中Atira型轨道精度可达10公里以内.由此可见,DRO天基平台对近地小行星具有较好的监测能力,定轨精度能实现对目标小行星的精确跟踪,并对其进行轨道预报.     

基于CEI测量的GEO目标快速轨道恢复

连线干涉测量(Connected Element Interferometry, CEI)是一种全天时全天候的被动测角技术, 已用于空间目标的跟踪监视. 地球静止轨道(Geostationary Earth Orbit, GEO)卫星需要频繁机动以保持轨位或完成其他任务, 其机动后的快速轨道恢复能力对于监视预警极为重要. 针对基于CEI的GEO短弧定轨和预报, 分析了定轨算法的形亏和数亏, 在附加先验轨道约束的短弧定轨基础上, 提出了轨道半长轴初值的自适应优化方法. 利用亚太七号卫星的CEI仿真和实测数据进行了短弧定轨和预报, 实验结果表明, 采用优化后的半长轴初值, 30min短弧定轨和10min预报的卫星位置分量精度均优于4km, 能够满足非合作GEO目标机动后快速轨道恢复的需求.     

基于误差发散规律的低轨卫星大气阻力系数计算方法

低轨卫星轨道预报精度受到大气模型和大气阻力系数精度的制约,给一些高精度的空间和航天任务带来不利影响.提出了一种基于沿迹方向误差发散规律的大气阻力系数计算新方法.首先通过理论推导给出低轨卫星轨道预报中沿迹误差发散的分析表达式,定量描述初值误差和模型误差对沿迹误差的综合影响;提出利用定轨段的基本信息,优选预报段所采用的阻力系数,抑制沿迹误差的发散速率,从而降低沿迹方向预报误差的最大值,提高短期预报精度.以400 km附近的GRACE-A卫星的全弧段星载GPS高精度资料为基础,检验了方法的精度和成功率.结果表明:相对于传统的定轨预报方法,新方法能提高24 h短期预报精度约45%,成功率约71%,总体有效率约86%;方法对低、中、高等3种太阳辐射水平均有效,对于中低等级的地磁扰动也有效,具备较好的应用价值.     

北斗系统测站钟差短期预报模型比较及其在单星定轨中的应用

北斗卫星导航系统(BDS)地面跟踪站都配置有高精度的氢原子钟,并基于精密定轨数据处理与主站的时间基准进行同步.在卫星轨道机动以及机动恢复期间,通常采用几何法定轨以及单星定轨确定卫星的轨道.而在这两种定轨模式中,需要提供精确的测站钟差作为输入.为提高定轨的实时性,需要对测站钟差进行预报处理.分析了2次多项式模型、附加周期项模型、灰色模型3种模型对北斗地面跟踪站钟差短期拟合和预报的性能,并将钟差预报结果应用于单星定轨,同时还分析了不同预报钟差用于定轨的精度.试验发现,以上3种模型对6个测站钟差的平均拟合精度分别为0.14 ns、0.05 ns、0.27 ns,预报1 h的平均精度分别为1.17 ns、0.88 ns、1.28 ns,预报2 h的平均精度分别为2.72 ns、2.09 ns、2.53 ns.采用3种模型对测站钟差进行预报并用于单星定轨,采用附加周期项的钟差预报模型轨道3维误差最小,不同模型轨道径向精度差异在3 cm以内.以上结果表明,附加周期项的站钟拟合及预报模型在北斗系统机动期间的轨道恢复数据处理具有最好的效果.     

CCD测角与激光测距技术综合测定空间目标的轨道

空间目标包括在轨卫星、空间碎片等,对其测定轨是空间攻防和空间利用的重要前提。由于地面测站资源有限,单站测量是目前对空间目标尤其是空间碎片测定轨较常用的方式。卫星激光测距(satellite laser ranging,SLR)技术测量精度很高,可达米级(非合作目标),甚至厘米级(合作目标),但不能单独用于单站短弧定轨;电荷耦合器件(charge coupled device,CCD)天文定位技术可观测距离较远的目标,但测量精度为角秒级,换算至空间距离不如SLR技术高。两者的联合为空间目标的高精度定位和跟踪提供了可能,并成为未来空间目标地基测量的发展方向。作为空间碎片单站监测的前期工作,对合作目标的单站定轨精度进行了评估。处理了1500 km高AJISAI低轨卫星的实测数据,分析了单站CCD测角和激光测距数据对低轨空间目标的联合定轨能力,并充分考虑两类不同类型观测数据的精度,数据综合时对其进行合理加权。利用全球激光站资料进行精密定轨,并以此作为参考轨道,采用上海佘山站AJISAI卫星2010年、2011年4天6圈的实测激光测距数据,以及CCD测角数据,开展了单站单圈和单站多圈定轨和预报试验。试验结果表明,测距数据的加入对定轨精度和24小时预报精度的改善非常明显,可提高至少一个数量级;单站单圈联合定轨和24小时预报的精度分别为20 m以内及数百米,单站多圈联合定轨和24小时预报的精度分别在米级及数十米。期望实验结果为中国未来的空间碎片望远镜建设提供参考。     

An Accuracy Analysis of the SGP4/SDP4 Model

Based on the latest release of the SGP4/SDP4 (Simplified General Perturbation Version 4/ Simplified Deep-space Perturbation Version 4) model, in this paper we have designed an orbit determination program. Through calculations for the 1120 objects with various types and orbital elements selected from the space objects database, we have obtained the accuracies of the orbit determination prediction dealt with various types of space objects by the SGP4/SDP4 model. The results show that the accuracies of the near-earth objects are in the order of magnitude of 100 meters; the averages of the orbit determination accuracies of the semi-synchronous and geosynchronous orbits are, respectively, 0.7 and 1.9 km. The orbit determination accuracies of the elliptical orbit objects are related to their eccentricities. Except for few elliptical orbit objects with e > 0.8, the orbit determination errors of the vast majority of the elliptical orbit objects are all less than 10 km. By using the SGP4/SDP4 model to make 3 days predictions for near-earth objects, 30 days for semi-synchronous orbit objects, 15 days for geosynchronous orbit objects and 1 day for elliptical orbit objects, the errors of prediction generally don’t exceed 40 km.     

Study on the Orbit Prediction Errors of Space Objects Based on Historical TLE Data

Two line element (TLE) released by the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) is widely used by aerospace workers, and the matched SGP4/SDP4 (Simplified General Perturbation Version 4/Simplified Deep-space Perturbation Version 4) model is used to propagate it. Nevertheless, no corresponding information about its accuracy and covariance is clearly given, thus the application of the TLE data is greatly restricted. In this paper, the determined and predicted orbits are compared to generate the orbit error data, based on the historical TLE data obtained from the Space-Track website and the SGP4/SDP4 model. By dividing different time bins, the fitting coefficients of the variation of orbit prediction error with time are given for each space object, and the characteristics of the error evolution are further discussed for the different types of orbits. The mean analytic model of the orbit prediction error evolution with time is given respectively for the four orbit types of space objects, which provides a valuable reference for extending the application of the TLE data.     

Density models for the upper atmosphere

Modeling the effects of atmospheric drag is one of the more important problems associated with the determination of the orbit of a near-earth satellite. Errors in the drag model can lead to significant errors in the determination and prediction of the satellite motion. The uncertainty in the drag acceleration can be attributed to three separate effects: (a) errors in the atmospheric density model, (b) errors in the ballistic coefficient, and (c) errors in the satellite relative velocity. In a number of contemporary satellite missions, the requirements for performing the orbit determination and predictions in near real-time has placed an emphasis on density model computation time as well as the model accuracy. In this investigation, a comparison is made of three contemporary atmospheric density models which are candidates for meeting the current orbit computation requirements. The models considered are the analytic Jacchia-Roberts model, the modified Harris-Priester model, and the USSR Cosmos satellite derived density model. The computational characteristics of each of the models are compared and a modification to the modified Harris-Priester model is proposed which improves its ability to represent the diurnal variation in the atmospheric density.This investigation was supported by the NASA Goddard Spaceflight Center under contract NAS5-20946 and Contract NSG 5154.     

NAO catalog of geocentric state vectors of geosynchronous space objects

Results of observations of geosynchronous space objects for the period of 2008–2010 are presented. The estimation of observation data errors is given. The process of calculating the state vectors is briefly described. The results of comparison of the Nikolaev Astronomical Observatory catalog with the NORAD orbit catalog are presented.     

Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Observational Data Weighting Method of Combined Orbit Determination of Near-earth Satellites of Bi-satellite Positioning System and its Applications

In the light of the problem of amalgamation and processing of multisource observational data in the combined orbit determination of near-earth satellites of the bi-satellite positioning system, the optimal weighting method of the improved variance component estimation of the two-step systematic error correction of homogeneous observational data is proposed. Analyses show that the multi-source amalgamation measurement model of the heterogeneous observational data essentially is a multi-structure, multi-parameter non-linear regression model, and the optimal weighting method of the combination of model structure characteristic analysis and variance component estimation of the heterogeneous observational data is established. The realization algorithms of the optimal weighting and the combined orbit determination parameter estimation of the two sorts of observational data are designed, and the simulation experiments of the combined orbit determination are carried out by taking the distances among the two satellites and the backup satellite and the homogeneous observational data and the distance between the two satellites and the heterogeneous observational data of satellite sensor angle measurements as the examples. The results of theoretical analysis and simulation calculation show that for the combined orbit determination of homogeneous observational data, the accuracy of orbit determination obtained by adopting the variance component estimation method of the two-step systematic error correction can be more superior than that obtained by means of the traditional empirical weighting method. For the combined orbit determination of heterogeneous observational data, through the introduction of the weighting factor by which the model structure is characterized the accuracies of the combined orbit determination of the near-earth satellite and geostationary satellite are both improved to a certain extent in comparison with the mean weighting mode.     

Determination of the orbit of a natural satellite with hyperbolic flybys

We show that, when a natural satellite like Titan is invisible (e.g., due to an opaque atmosphere) its planetary orbit and its mass can be determined by tracking a spacecraft in close flybys. This is an important problem in the Cassini mission to the Saturnian system, which will be greatly improved by a good astrometric model for all its main components; in particular, an accuracy of a few hundred meters for the orbit of Titan is necessary to allow a measurement of its moment of inertia. The orbit of the spacecraft is the union of elliptical arcs, joined by short hyperbolic transitions: a problem of singular perturbation theory, whose solution leads to a matching condition between the inner hyperbolic orbit and the elliptical orbital elements. Since the inner elements are given in terms of the relative position and velocity of the spacecraft, accurate Doppler measurements in both regions can provide a satisfactory determination of Titan's position and velocity, hence of its Keplerian elements. The errors in this determination are discussed on the basis of the expected Allan deviation of the Doppler method; it is found that the driving errors are those in the elliptical arcs; the fractional errors in Titan's orbital elements are expected to be 10^–7. It is also possible to measure the mass of the satellite; however, when the eccentricity e of the flybys is large, the mass and a scaling transformation are highly correlated and the fractional error in the mass is expected to be e times worse.     

A CCD search for geosynchronous debris

A search for objects in geosynchronous Earth orbit was conducted using the Spacewatch Camera system. The telescope drive was off so that during integrations the stars were trailed while geostationary objects appeared as round images. The technique should detect geostationary objects to a limiting apparent visual magnitude of 19. A total sky area of 8.8 deg² was searched for geostationary objects; the total sky area monitored for geosynchronous debris passing through the field of view was 16.4 deg². Ten objects were found, three of which were observed on separate nights. Seven of these objects are probably geostationary satellites having apparent visual magnitudes brighter than 13.1. Three objects having magnitudes equal to or fainter than 13.7 showed motion in the north-south direction. The absence of fainter stationary objects suggests that a gap in debris size exists between satellites and particles having diameters in the millimeter range known to exist in geosynchronous orbit.     

利用VLBI数据确定"探测一号"卫星的轨道

双星计划的“探测一号”是中国首颗真正严格意义上的科学实验卫星,其运行轨道为中国迄今所发射的卫星中距地球最远,远地点地心距达7．8万公里．采用射电天文的VLBI技术可以对“探测一号”以及更远的深空目标,如探月飞行器实现跟踪．为了验证VLBI技术在我国探月计划中的作用,上海天文台组织了国内目前仅有的上海、乌鲁木齐和昆明3个台站对“探测一号”进行试跟踪,利用对“探测一号”约两天的VLBI观测数据,确定“探测一号”卫星的轨道,对VLBI的定轨能力做初步的探讨．按照测控部门提供的初轨 (其精度仅保证跟踪)推算的轨道与VLBI时延的拟合误差平均约2 km,时延率的拟合误差平均约15 cm／s．而利用VLBI数据定轨后的拟合程度相对于初轨有了很大的改善,结果表明,单独利用VLBI时延定轨,时延的拟合精度约5．5 m,作为外部检核的VLBI时延率的拟合精度在2 cm／s左右．单独利用VLBI时延率定轨,时延率的拟合精度约为1．3 cm／s,作为外部检核的VLBI时延的拟合精度约为29 m．而若将时延和时延率数据联合定轨,采用其内符精度加权,VLBI时延和时延率的残差分别为5．5 m和 2 cm／s．为了合理地评估VLBI定轨的真实精度,利用模拟数据进行误差协方差分析,结果表明VLBI定轨精度受动力学模型误差的影响较大,由于"探测一号”卫星的动力学模型难以精确确定,所以利用两天弧段的VLBI数据确定“探测一号”卫星轨道的位置误差为km量级,而速度误差可达cm／s量级．模拟计算还表明, VLBI和USB数据联合定轨可以大大提高定轨精度．