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1.
Sequences of line-of-sight (LOS) magnetograms recorded by the Michelson Doppler Imager are used to quantitatively characterize photospheric magnetic structure and evolution in three active regions that rotated across the Sun??s disk during the Whole Heliosphere Interval (WHI), in an attempt to relate the photospheric magnetic properties of these active regions to flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Several approaches are used in our analysis, on scales ranging from whole active regions, to magnetic features, to supergranular scales, and, finally, to individual pixels. We calculated several parameterizations of magnetic structure and evolution that have previously been associated with flare and CME activity, including total unsigned magnetic flux, magnetic flux near polarity-inversion lines, amount of canceled flux, the ??proxy Poynting flux,?? and helicity flux. To catalog flare events, we used flare lists derived from both GOES and RHESSI observations. By most such measures, AR 10988 should have been the most flare- and CME-productive active region, and AR 10989 the least. Observations, however, were not consistent with this expectation: ARs 10988 and 10989 produced similar numbers of flares, and AR 10989 also produced a few CMEs. These results highlight present limitations of statistics-based flare and CME forecasting tools that rely upon line-of-sight photospheric magnetic data alone.  相似文献   

2.
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and other solar eruptive phenomena can be physically linked by combining data from a multitude of ground-based and space-based instruments alongside models; however, this can be challenging for automated operational systems. The EU Framework Package 7 HELCATS project provides catalogues of CME observations and properties from the Heliospheric Imagers on board the two NASA/STEREO spacecraft in order to track the evolution of CMEs in the inner heliosphere. From the main HICAT catalogue of over 2,000 CME detections, an automated algorithm has been developed to connect the CMEs observed by STEREO to any corresponding solar flares and active-region (AR) sources on the solar surface. CME kinematic properties, such as speed and angular width, are compared with AR magnetic field properties, such as magnetic flux, area, and neutral line characteristics. The resulting LOWCAT catalogue is also compared to the extensive AR property database created by the EU Horizon 2020 FLARECAST project, which provides more complex magnetic field parameters derived from vector magnetograms. Initial statistical analysis has been undertaken on the new data to provide insight into the link between flare and CME events, and characteristics of eruptive ARs. Warning thresholds determined from analysis of the evolution of these parameters is shown to be a useful output for operational space weather purposes. Parameters of particular interest for further analysis include total unsigned flux, vertical current, and current helicity. The automated method developed to create the LOWCAT catalogue may also be useful for future efforts to develop operational CME forecasting.  相似文献   

3.
If all coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have flux ropes, then the CMEs should keep their helicity signs from the Sun to the Earth according to the helicity conservation principle. This study presents an attempt to answer the question from the Coordinated Data Analysis Workshop (CDAW), “Do all CMEs have flux ropes?”, by using a qualitative helicity sign comparison between interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) and their CME source regions. For this, we select 34 CME–ICME pairs whose source active regions (ARs) have continuous SOHO/MDI magnetogram data covering more than 24 hr without data gap during the passage of the ARs near the solar disk center. The helicity signs in the ARs are determined by estimation of cumulative magnetic helicity injected through the photosphere in the entire source ARs. The helicity signs in the ICMEs are estimated by applying the cylinder model developed by Marubashi (Adv. Space. Res., 26, 55, 2000) to 16 second resolution magnetic field data from the MAG instrument onboard the ACE spacecraft. It is found that 30 out of 34 events (88 %) are helicity sign-consistent events, while four events (12 %) are sign-inconsistent. Through a detailed investigation of the source ARs of the four sign-inconsistent events, we find that those events can be explained by the local helicity sign opposite to that of the entire AR helicity (28 July 2000 ICME), incorrectly reported solar source region in the CDAW list (20 May 2005 ICME), or the helicity sign of the pre-existing coronal magnetic field (13 October 2000 and 20 November 2003 ICMEs). We conclude that the helicity signs of the ICMEs are quite consistent with those of the injected helicities in the AR regions from where the CMEs erupted.  相似文献   

4.
The aim of this paper is studying the relation between the coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and their associated solar flares. I used the CMEs data (obtained from CME catalogue) which observed by SOHO/LASCO, during the Solar Cycle 23rd (1996–2006), during this period I selected 12,433 CME records. Also I used the X-ray flares data which provided geostationary operational environmental satellite (GOES), during the same interval in the 1–8 Å GOES channel, the recorded flare events are 22,688. I filtered these CMEs and solar flare events to select 529 CME-Flare events. I found that there is a moderate relation between the solar flare fluxes and their associated CME energies, where R = 58 %. In addition I found that 61 % of the CME-Flare associated events ejected from the solar surface after the occurrence of the associated flare. Furthermore I found that the CME-Flare relation improved during the period of high solar activity. Finally, I examined the CME association rate as a function of flare longitude and I found that the CME association rate of the total 529 selected CME-Flare events are mostly disk-Flare events.  相似文献   

5.
In an effort to examine the relationship between flare flux and corresponding CME mass, we temporally and spatially correlate all X-ray flares and CMEs in the LASCO and GOES archives from 1996 to 2006. We cross-reference 6733 CMEs having well-measured masses against 12 050 X-ray flares having position information as determined from their optical counterparts. For a given flare, we search in time for CMEs which occur 10 – 80 minutes afterward, and we further require the flare and CME to occur within ± 45° in position angle on the solar disk. There are 826 CME/flare pairs which fit these criteria. Comparing the flare fluxes with CME masses of these paired events, we find CME mass increases with flare flux, following an approximately log-linear, broken relationship: in the limit of lower flare fluxes, log (CME mass)∝0.68×log (flare flux), and in the limit of higher flare fluxes, log (CME mass)∝0.33×log (flare flux). We show that this broken power-law, and in particular the flatter slope at higher flare fluxes, may be due to an observational bias against CMEs associated with the most energetic flares: halo CMEs. Correcting for this bias yields a single power-law relationship of the form log (CME mass)∝0.70×log (flare flux). This function describes the relationship between CME mass and flare flux over at least 3 dex in flare flux, from ≈ 10−7 – 10−4 W m−2.  相似文献   

6.
The Whole Heliosphere Interval (WHI) was an international observing and modeling effort to characterize the 3-D interconnected ??heliophysical?? system during this solar minimum, centered on Carrington Rotation 2068, March 20??C?April 16, 2008. During the latter half of the WHI period, the Sun presented a sunspot-free, deep solar minimum type face. But during the first half of CR 2068 three solar active regions flanked by two opposite-polarity, low-latitude coronal holes were present. These departures from the quiet Sun led to both eruptive activity and solar wind structure. Most of the eruptive activity, i.e., flares, filament eruptions and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), occurred during this first, active half of the interval. We determined the source locations of the CMEs and the type of associated region, such as active region, or quiet sun or active region prominence. To analyze the evolution of the events in the context of the global solar magnetic field and its evolution during the three rotations centered on CR 2068, we plotted the CME source locations onto synoptic maps of the photospheric magnetic field, of the magnetic and chromospheric structure, of the white light corona, and of helioseismological subsurface flows. Most of the CME sources were associated with the three dominant active regions on CR 2068, particularly AR 10989. Most of the other sources on all three CRs appear to have been associated with either isolated filaments or filaments in the north polar crown filament channel. Although calculations of the flux balance and helicity of the surface magnetic features did not clearly identify a dominance of one region over the others, helioseismological subsurface flows beneath these active regions did reveal a pronounced difference among them. These preliminary results suggest that the ??twistedness?? (i.e., vorticity and helicity) of subsurface flows and its temporal variation might be related to the CME productivity of active regions, similar to the relationship between flares and subsurface flows.  相似文献   

7.
It is well known that there is a temporal relationship between coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and associated flares. The duration of the acceleration phase is related to the duration of the rise phase of a flare. We investigate CMEs associated with slow long duration events (LDEs), i.e. flares with the long rising phase. We determined the relationships between flares and CMEs and analyzed the CME kinematics in detail. The parameters of the flares (GOES flux, duration of the rising phase) show strong correlations with the CME parameters (velocity, acceleration during main acceleration phase, and duration of the CME acceleration phase). These correlations confirm the strong relation between slow LDEs and CMEs. We also analyzed the relation between the parameters of the CMEs, i.e. a velocity, an acceleration during the main acceleration phase, a duration of the acceleration phase, and a height of a CME at the end of the acceleration phase. The CMEs associated with the slow LDEs are characterized by high velocity during the propagation phase, with the median equal to 1423 km?s?1. In half of the analyzed cases, the main acceleration was low (a<300 m?s?2), which suggests that the high velocity is caused by the prolonged acceleration phase (the median for the duration of the acceleration phase is equal 90 minutes). The CMEs were accelerated up to several solar radii (with the median ≈?7 R ), which is much higher than in typical impulsive CMEs. Therefore, slow LDEs may potentially precede extremely strong geomagnetic storms. The analysis of slow LDEs and associated CMEs may give important information for developing more accurate space-weather forecasts, especially for extreme events.  相似文献   

8.
Green  L.M.  Démoulin  P.  Mandrini  C.H.  Van Driel-Gesztelyi  L. 《Solar physics》2003,215(2):307-325
In order to understand whether major flares or coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can be related to changes in the longitudinal photospheric magnetic field, we study 4 young active regions during seven days of their disk passage. This time period precludes any biases which may be introduced in studies that look at the field evolution during the short-term flare or CME period only. Data from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) with a time cadence of 96 min are used. Corrections are made to the data to account for area foreshortening and angle between line of sight and field direction, and also the underestimation of the flux densities. We make a systematic study of the evolution of the longitudinal magnetic field, and analyze flare and CME occurrence in the magnetic evolution. We find that the majority of CMEs and flares occur during or after new flux emergence. The flux in all four active regions is observed to have deviations from polarity balance both on the long term (solar rotation) and on the short term (few hours). The long-term imbalance is not due to linkage outside the active region; it is primarily related to the east–west distance from central meridian, with the sign of polarity closer to the limb dominating. The sequence of short-term imbalances are not closely linked to CMEs and flares and no permanent imbalance remains after them. We propose that both kinds of imbalance are due to the presence of a horizontal field component (parallel to the photospheric surface) in the emerging flux.  相似文献   

9.
We have re-evaluated the association of type II solar radio bursts with flares and/or coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using the year 2000 solar maximum data. For this, we consider 52 type II events whose associations with flares or CMEs were absent or not clearly identified and reported. These events are classified as follows; group I: 11 type IIs for which there are no reports of GOES X-ray flares and CMEs; group II: 12 type IIs for which there are no reports of GOES X-ray flares; and group III: 29 type IIs for which the flare locations are not reported. By carefully re-examining their association from GOES X-ray and H, Yohkoh SXT and EIT-EUV data, we attempt to answer the following questions: (i) if there really were no X-ray flares associated with the above 23 type IIs of groups I and II; (ii) whether they can be regarded as backside events whose X-ray emission might have been occulted. From this analysis, we have found that two factors, flare background intensity and flare location, play important roles in the complete reports about flare–type II–CME associations. In the above 23 cases, for more than 50% of the cases in total, the X-ray flares were not noticed and reported, because the background intensity of X-ray flux was high. In the remaining cases, the X-ray intensity might be greatly reduced due to occultation. From the H flare data, Yohkoh SXT data and EIT-EUV data, we found that ten cases out of 23 might be frontside events, and the remaining are backside events. While the flare–type II association is found to be nearly 90%, the type II–CME association is roughly around 75%. This analysis might be useful to reduce some ambiguities regarding the association among type IIs, flares and CMEs.  相似文献   

10.
Andrews  M.D. 《Solar physics》2001,204(1-2):179-196
The period of 10–14 July 2000 saw a large number of energetic solar events ending with a very energetic flare that was associated with a large solar energetic particle event and a fast halo coronal mass ejection (CME) that produced the largest geomagnetic disturbance since 1989. This paper tries to summarize the complex coronal activity observed during this period, in order to establish a background for a number of papers in this topical issue. The GOES X-ray data are presented. Data animations of observations from EIT and LASCO C2 and C3 are presented on the accompanying CD-ROM. The observations around the time of the three X-class flares are considered. EIT observations of the Bastille Day flare show coronal brightening followed by dimming. LASCO had good data coverage for all three events. For one of the flares, no coronal response was seen. The other two flares are associated with halo CMEs. The timing suggests that the start of the flares and CMEs are simultaneous to approximately 30 min. Analysis of the LASCO and EIT images following the Bastille Day flare show the arrival of energetic particles at SOHO at approximately 10:41 UT on 14 July. Individual features of these CMEs have been tracked and the height–time plots used to estimate the dynamics of the CMEs. The initial speed and deceleration of the halo CMEs estimated from the fitting of height–time plots are compared with the in-situ observations at L1. The three flares are identified as the solar sources of three shocks observed at 1 AU. Finally, it is stressed that global heliospheric effects during periods of exceptional activity should consider a cumulative scenario rather than events in isolation.  相似文献   

11.
CMEs and flares are the two energetic phenomena on the Sun responsible for generating shocks. Our main aim is to study the relation between the physical properties of CMEs and flares associated with and without type II radio bursts. We considered a set of 290 SOHO/LASCO CMEs associated with GOES X-ray flares observed during the period from January 1997 to December 2000. The relationship between the flares and CMEs is examined for the two sets i) with metric-type IIs and ii) without metric-type IIs. Physical properties such as rise time, duration, and strength of the flares and width, speed, and acceleration of CMEs are considered. We examined the energy relationship and temporal relationship between the CMEs and flares. First, all the events in each group were considered, and then the limb events in each group were considered separately. While there is a relationship between the temporal characteristics of flares and CME properties in the case of with-type IIs, it is absent in the case of all without-type IIs. Among all the relations studied, the correlation between flare duration and CME properties is found to be highly significant compared to the other relations. Also, the relationship between flare strength and CME speed found in the with-type II events is absent in the case of all without-type II events. However, when the limb without-type II events (with reduced time window between flare and CME) are studied separately, we found the energy relationship and the temporal relationship.  相似文献   

12.
Three homologous coronal mass ejections (CMEs) occurred on 5, 12 and 16 May 1997 from the single magnetic polarity inversion line (PIL) of AR8038. The three events together provide STEREO-like quadrature views of the 12 May 1997 CME and EIT double dimming. The recurrent CMEs with the nearly identical post-CME potential state and the ‘sigmoid to arcade to sigmoid’ transformations indicate a repeatable store?–?release?–?restore process of the free energy. How was the free magnetic energy re-introduced to the potential state corona after each release in this decaying active region? Making use of the known time interval bounded by the adjacent homologous CMEs, we made the following measures. The unsigned magnetic flux of AR8038, ΦAR, decreased by approximately 18% during 66 h, while the unsigned flux, ΦPIL, in a Gaussian-weighted PIL-region containing the flare site increased by about 50% during 36 hrs prior to the C1.3 flare on 12 May 1997. The significant increase of ΦPIL demonstrates the magnetic gradient increase and the build-up of free energy in the PIL-region during the time leading to the eruption. Fourier local correlation tracking (FLCT) flow speed in AR8038 ranges from 0 to 292.8 m?s?1 with a mean value of 63.2 m?s?1. The flow field contains a persistent converging flow towards the flaring PIL and an effective shear flow distributed in the AR. Minor angular motions were found. An integrated proxy Poynting flux S h estimates the energy input to the corona to be on the order of 1.15×1032 erg during the 66 hrs before the C1.3 flare. It suggests that sufficient energy for a flare/CME can be introduced to the corona on the order of several days by the flows deduced from photospheric magnetic field motions in this small decaying active region.  相似文献   

13.
We probe the spectral hardening of solar flares emission in view of associated solar proton events (SEPs) at earth and coronal mass ejection (CME) acceleration as a consequence. In this investigation we undertake 60 SEPs of the Solar Cycle 23 along with associated Solar Flares and CMEs. We employ the X-ray emission in Solar flares observed by Reuven Ramaty Higly Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) in order to estimate flare plasma parameters. Further, we employ the observations from Geo-stationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO), for SEPs and CMEs parameter estimation respectively. We report a good association of soft-hard-harder (SHH) spectral behavior of Flares with occurrence of Solar Proton Events for 16 Events (observed by RHESSI associated with protons). In addition, we have found a good correlation (R=0.71) in SEPs spectral hardening and CME velocity. We conclude that the Protons as well as CMEs gets accelerated at the Flare site and travel all the way in interplanetary space and then by re-acceleration in interplanetary space CMEs produce Geomagnetic Storms in geospace. This seems to be a statistically significant mechanism of the SEPs and initial CME acceleration in addition to the standard scenario of SEP acceleration at the shock front of CMEs.  相似文献   

14.
We studied the behavior of magnetic field, horizontal motion and helicity in a fast emerging flux region NOAA 10488 which eventually forms a δ spot. It is found that the rotation of photospheric footpoints forms in the earlier stage of magnetic flux emergence and the relative shear motion of different magnetic flux systems appears later in this active region (AR). Therefore the emerging process of the AR can be separated into two phases: rotation and shear. We have computed the magnetic helicity injected into the corona using the local correlation tracking (LCT) technique. Furthermore we determined the vertical component of current helicity density and the vertical component of induction electric fields Ez = (V× B)z in the photosphere. Particularly we have presented the comparison of the injection rate of magnetic helicity and the variation of the current helicity density. The main results are as follows: (1) The strong shear motion (SSM) between the new emerging flux system and the old one brings more magnetic helicity into the corona than the twisting motions. (2) After the maturity of the main bipolar spots, their twist decreases and the SSM becomes dominant and the major contributor of magnetic non-potentiality in the solar atmosphere in this AR. (3) The positions of the maxima of Ez (about 0.1 ∼ 0.2 V cm−1) shift from the twisting areas to the areas showing SSMs as the AR evolved from the rotation phase to the shear one, but no obvious correlation is found between the kernels of Hα flare and Ez for the M1.6 flare in this AR. (4) The coronal helicity inferred from the horizontal motion of this AR amounts to −6 × 1043 Mx2. It is comparable with the coronal helicity of ARs producing flares with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) or helicity carried away by magnetic clouds (MCs) reported in previous studies (Nindos, Zhang, and Zhang, 2003; Nindos and Andrews, 2004). In addition, the formation of the δ configuration in this AR belongs to the third formation type indicated by Zirin and Liggett (1987), i.e., collision of opposite polarities from different dipoles, and can be naturally explained by the SSM.  相似文献   

15.
Developments in our knowledge of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have shown that many of these transients occur in association with solar flares. On the occasions when there is a common occurrence of the eruption and the flare, it is most likely that the flare is of high intensity and/or long-duration (Burkepile, Hundhausen, and Webb, 1994; Munro et al., 1979; Webb and Hundhausen, 1987). A model for the relationship between the long-duration event and eruption has been developed (Carmichael, 1964; Sturrock, 1966; Hirayama, 1974; Kopp and Pneuman, 1976), but not so for the high-intensity flares and eruptions. This work investigates the magnetic topology changes that occur for a X1.2 GOES classification flare which has no associated CME. It is found that the flare is likely to result from the interaction between two pre-existing loops low in the corona, producing a confined flare. Slightly higher in the corona, a loop is observed which exhibits an outward motion as a result of the reconfiguration during reconnection. The objective of this work is to gain insight on the magnetic topology of the event which is critical in order to determine whether a high-intensity flare is likely to be related to a CME or not.  相似文献   

16.
A key aim in space weather research is to be able to use remote-sensing observations of the solar atmosphere to extend the lead time of predicting the geoeffectiveness of a coronal mass ejection (CME). In order to achieve this, the magnetic structure of the CME as it leaves the Sun must be known. In this article we address this issue by developing a method to determine the intrinsic flux rope type of a CME solely from solar disk observations. We use several well-known proxies for the magnetic helicity sign, the axis orientation, and the axial magnetic field direction to predict the magnetic structure of the interplanetary flux rope. We present two case studies: the 2 June 2011 and the 14 June 2012 CMEs. Both of these events erupted from an active region, and despite having clear in situ counterparts, their eruption characteristics were relatively complex. The first event was associated with an active region filament that erupted in two stages, while for the other event the eruption originated from a relatively high coronal altitude and the source region did not feature a filament. Our magnetic helicity sign proxies include the analysis of magnetic tongues, soft X-ray and/or extreme-ultraviolet sigmoids, coronal arcade skew, filament emission and absorption threads, and filament rotation. Since the inclination of the post-eruption arcades was not clear, we use the tilt of the polarity inversion line to determine the flux rope axis orientation and coronal dimmings to determine the flux rope footpoints, and therefore, the direction of the axial magnetic field. The comparison of the estimated intrinsic flux rope structure to in situ observations at the Lagrangian point L1 indicated a good agreement with the predictions. Our results highlight the flux rope type determination techniques that are particularly useful for active region eruptions, where most geoeffective CMEs originate.  相似文献   

17.
We study the association of solar flares with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) during the deep, extended solar minimum of 2007?–?2009, using extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) and white-light (coronagraph) images from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO). Although all of the fast (v>900 km?s?1), wide (θ>100°) CMEs are associated with a flare that is at least identified in GOES soft X-ray light curves, a majority of flares with relatively high X-ray intensity for the deep solar minimum (e.g. ?1×10?6 W?m?2 or C1) are not associated with CMEs. Intense flares tend to occur in active regions with a strong and complex photospheric magnetic field, but the active regions that produce CME-associated flares tend to be small, including those that have no sunspots and therefore no NOAA active-region numbers. Other factors on scales similar to and larger than active regions seem to exist that contribute to the association of flares with CMEs. We find the possible low coronal signatures of CMEs, namely eruptions, dimmings, EUV waves, and Type III bursts, in 91 %, 74 %, 57 %, and 74 %, respectively, of the 35 flares that we associate with CMEs. None of these observables can fully replace direct observations of CMEs by coronagraphs.  相似文献   

18.
Patsourakos et al. (Astrophys. J. 817, 14, 2016) and Patsourakos and Georgoulis (Astron. Astrophys. 595, A121, 2016) introduced a method to infer the axial magnetic field in flux-rope coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the solar corona and farther away in the interplanetary medium. The method, based on the conservation principle of magnetic helicity, uses the relative magnetic helicity of the solar source region as input estimates, along with the radius and length of the corresponding CME flux rope. The method was initially applied to cylindrical force-free flux ropes, with encouraging results. We hereby extend our framework along two distinct lines. First, we generalize our formalism to several possible flux-rope configurations (linear and nonlinear force-free, non-force-free, spheromak, and torus) to investigate the dependence of the resulting CME axial magnetic field on input parameters and the employed flux-rope configuration. Second, we generalize our framework to both Sun-like and active M-dwarf stars hosting superflares. In a qualitative sense, we find that Earth may not experience severe atmosphere-eroding magnetospheric compression even for eruptive solar superflares with energies \({\approx}\, 10^{4}\) times higher than those of the largest Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) X-class flares currently observed. In addition, the two recently discovered exoplanets with the highest Earth-similarity index, Kepler 438b and Proxima b, seem to lie in the prohibitive zone of atmospheric erosion due to interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), except when they possess planetary magnetic fields that are much higher than that of Earth.  相似文献   

19.
The relationship between the velocity of CMEs and the plasma temperature of the associated X-ray solar flares is investigated.The velocity of CMEs increases with plasma temperature(R=0.82)and photon index below the break energy(R=0.60)of X-ray flares.The heating of the coronal plasma appears to be significant with respect to the kinetics of a CME from the reconnection region where the flare also occurs.We propose that the initiation and velocity of CMEs perhaps depend upon the dominant process of conversion of the magnetic field energy of the active region to heating/accelerating the coronal plasma in the reconnected loops.Results show that a flare and the associated CME are two components of one energy release system,perhaps,magnetic field free energy.  相似文献   

20.
The NOAA active region (AR) 11029 was a small but highly active sunspot region which produced 73 GOES soft X-ray flares during its transit of the disk in late October 2009. The flares appear to show a departure from the well-known power law frequency-size distribution. Specifically, too few GOES C-class and no M-class flares were observed by comparison with a power law distribution (Wheatland, Astrophys. J. 710, 1324, 2010). This was conjectured to be due to the region having insufficient magnetic energy to power the missing large events. We construct nonlinear force-free extrapolations of the coronal magnetic field of AR 11029 using data taken on 24 October by the SOLIS Vector SpectroMagnetograph (SOLIS/VSM) and data taken on 27 October by the Hinode Solar Optical Telescope SpectroPolarimeter (Hinode/SP). Force-free modeling with photospheric magnetogram data encounters problems, because the magnetogram data are inconsistent with a force-free model. We employ a recently developed “self-consistency” procedure which addresses this problem and accommodates uncertainties in the boundary data (Wheatland and Régnier, Astrophys. J. 700, L88, 2009). We calculate the total energy and free energy of the self-consistent solution, which provides a model for the coronal magnetic field of the active region. The free energy of the region was found to be ≈?4×1029?erg on 24 October and ≈?7×1031?erg on 27 October. An order of magnitude scaling between RHESSI non-thermal energy and GOES peak X-ray flux is established from a sample of flares from the literature and is used to estimate flare energies from the observed GOES peak X-ray flux. Based on the scaling, we conclude that the estimated free energy of AR 11029 on 27 October when the flaring rate peaked was sufficient to power M-class or X-class flares; hence, the modeling does not appear to support the hypothesis that the absence of large flares is due to the region having limited energy.  相似文献   

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