Eruptive probability calculation for the Yucca Mountain site,USA: statistical estimation of recurrence rates

Investigations are currently underway to evaluate the impact of potentially adverse conditions (e.g. volcanism, faulting, seismicity) on the waste-isolation capability of the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, USA. This paper is the first in a series that will examine the probability of disruption of the Yucca Mountain site by volcanic eruption. In it, we discuss three estimating techniques for determining the recurrence rate of volcanic eruption (), an important parameter in the Poisson probability model. The first method is based on the number of events occurring over a certain observation period, the second is based on repose times, and the final is based on magma volume. All three require knowledge of the total number of eruptions in the Yucca Mountain area during the observation period (E). Following this discussion we then propose an estimate of E which takes into account the possibility of polygenetic and polycyclic volcanism at all the volcanic centers near the Yucca Mountain site.Paper financed by the Nuclear Waste Project Office, State of Nevada, USA     

Discussion of: A study on the application of the parallel seismic method in pile testing

This discussion is based on the paper by Lu et al. (2013) [1]. In this paper, the authors have presented a theoretical study on the PS testing based on the ray path theory and the elastodynamic finite integration technique. This discussion offers some comments on the proposed method for determining the pile length, the ray path of the first P wave arrival for PS testing and analysis results of that paper under discussion.     

撰写科技论文的若干要点

针对科技论文中常见的写作问题,论述了如何写好科技论文的要点.写好的科技论文应该做到术语的正确运用、主题突出、结构合理、层次清晰、推理符合逻辑、论证严谨以及符合国家和相应出版社和期刊杂志的写作要求.这对促进科技成果的推广、信息交流与科学技术的发展是非常重要的.     

Intracontinental basins and strong earthquakes

Introduction A M=8 earthquake occurred in the intracontinental Linfen basin on September 17, 1303. This is the Hongtong M=8 earthquake in Shanxi Province. It is the first recorded M = 8 earthquake since the Chinese historical seismic records had started. The earthquake killed 200 000 people (LI, 1960; XIE, CAI, 1983). The year 2003 is the 700th anniversary of the earthquake occurrence. In memory of the people died in the earthquake, for further improving earthquake prevention and disas…     

关于《建筑工程抗震性态设计通则(试用)》的讨论

本文是一篇关于《建筑工程抗震性态设计通则（试用）》的讨论,主要针对第3、5、10和第11章的内容,将通则与现行抗震设计规范进行了对比,并就所涉及的方面提了一些建议。     

基于流域的我国生态功能区划方法研究

生态功能区划是我国正在开展的一项关于资源与环境管理的重大基础性工作.生态功能区划的理论和方法是当前生态学、环境科学、地理学等学科面临的一项新的热点课题.本文首先讨论了生态功能区划的概念,从认识区划看,生态功能区划属于生态系统区域划分的范畴,从实践的角度,则强调人文活动对生态系统可持续能力产生的影响,指出自然生态区不是生态功能区,生态功能区须反映人类的利用和价值判断.生态功能区划,不单是以自然要素或自然系统的"地带性分异"为基础,更是以生态系统的等级结构和尺度原则为基础,用生态系统完整性的评价测量人类活动对生态系统的影响,将生态功能区划的科学基础落在"基于生态系统的管理"平台上.文章提出了基于流域的我国生态功能区划的初步思想,讨论了区划的原则和方法,建立了生态系统完整性评价和功能区划分的指标体系.其基本内容是,认识并按照生态系统的自然边界划分生态系统单元;进行生态系统完整性评价;在此基础上划分不同的生态功能区,确定主导生态功能.     

对地震学“反例”的几点思考

本文从科学哲学和科学史出发,探讨了地震学中与假说或理论相悖的“反例”现象,认为,在地震学“概念的延伸扩张”以及从假说上升到理论的过程中,“反例”的启发与检验,发挥了积极的能动作用;辩证考察“反例”给出“Ⅰ 类反例与 Ⅰ 类否定”、“Ⅱ类反例与Ⅱ类否定”概念,对纷繁复杂的地震学“反例”进行了原则分类;本文还就数学、科学方法对地震学“反例”的识别意义作了一定的讨论。     

Whose field line is it anyway?

Gareth Chisham, Gary Abel and Steve Milan report on the October 2003 RAS "G" discussion meeting "Identifying the open–closed field line boundary in magnetospheric and ionospheric data sets".     

General solution to random advective-dispersive equation in porous media

This series of articles present general applications of functional-analytic theory to the solution of the partial differential equation describing solid transport in aquifers, when either the evolution of the system, the sources, the parameters and/or the boundary conditions are prescribed as stochastic processes in time or in space. This procedure does not require the restricting assumptions placed upon the current particular solutions on which today's stochastic transport theory is based, such as small randomness assumptions (perturbation techniques), Montecarlo simulations, restriction to small spatial stochasticity in the hydraulic conductivity, use of spectral analysis techniques, restriction to asymptotic steady state conditions, and restriction to variance of the concentration as the only model output among others. Functional analysis provides a rigorous tool in which the concentration stochastic properties can be predicted in a natural way based upon the known stochastic properties of the sources, the parameters and/or the boundary conditions. Thus the theory satisfies a more general modeling need by providing, if desired, a systematic global information on the sample functions, the mean, the variance, correlation functions or higher-order moments based on similar information of any size, anywhere, of the input functions. Part I of this series of articles presents the main relevant results of functional-analytic theory and individual cases of applications to the solution of distributed sources problems, with time as well as spatial stochasticity, and the solution subject to stochastic boundary conditions. It was found that the stochastically-forced equation may be a promising model for a variety of random source problems. When the differential equation is perturbed by a time and space stochastic process, the output is also a time and space stochastic process, in contrast with most of the existing solutions which ignore the temporal component. Stochastic boundary conditions seems to quickly dissipate as time increases.     

Pre-Observational Evolution of Surface Temperature in Romania as Inferred from Borehole Temperature Measurements

Temperature data from nine boreholes in the Carpathian orogen in Romania were used to obtain information on the ground surface temperature history (GSTH) in the last 250?years. The temperature measurements were taken with a thermistor probe (sensitivity in the 10 mK range) using the stop-and-go technique, at 10 m intervals, in the depth range of 20–580?m. The least squares inverse modelling approach of Tarantola and Valette (J Geophys 50:159–170, 1982) was used to infer the GSTH. Long-term air temperature records available from the Romanian weather station network were used as a comparison term for the first 100–150?years of the GSTH, and as a forcing function in a POM-SAT model that combines borehole temperature profiles (BTPs) and meteorological time series (surface air temperature, SAT) to produce information on the so-called pre-observational mean (POM). Results from a global circulation model for the Romanian area are incorporated in the discussion as well.     

A direct scaling analysis for the sea level rise

The estimation of long-term sea level variability is of primary importance for a climate change assessment. Despite the value of the subject, no scientific consensus has yet been reached on the existing acceleration in observed values. The existence of this acceleration is crucial for coastal protection planning purposes. The absence of the acceleration would enhance the debate on the general validity of current future projections. Methodologically, the evaluation of the acceleration is a controversial and still open discussion, reported in a number of review articles, which illustrate the state-of-art in the field of sea level research. In the present paper, the well-proven direct scaling analysis approach is proposed in order to describe the long-term sea level variability at 12 worldwide-selected tide gauge stations. For each of the stations, it has been shown that the long-term sea level variability exhibits a trimodal scaling behaviour, which can be modelled by a power law with three different pairs of shape and scale parameters. Compared to alternative methods in literature, which take into account multiple correlated factors, this simple method allows to reduce the uncertainties on the sea level rise parameters estimation.     

REMARKS ON THE SIGNAL TO NOISE RATIO IN THE VIBROSEIS SYSTEM*

The paper presents a discussion of some of the noise features of the VIBROSEIS SYSTEM *** ** Trademark of Continental Oil Company.
and their bearing on the determination of the optimally weighted stack.     

SH波对圆弧形凸起地形的散射

本文采用“契合”的方法,给出了一个求解平面ＳＨ波对圆弧形凸起形散射的新方法。利用包括圆绵形凸起上边界线在内的一个圆域中预先构造的满足凸起边界应力为零。其余边界应力待定的级数解和其余下的具有圆弧形凹陷的半空间中的解答。通过在其结合面上完成“契合”的过程中分别确定出圆域和半空间听解答。给出了问题的最终结果。利用上述方法,问题的求解仍归结为对一个无穷代数方程组的求解。最后,本文给出了数值结果并对其进行了     

Variations in the Intensity of the Earth's Magnetic Field

The Earth's main magnetic field can be approximated by an axial, geocentric dipole. The remaining non-dipole field is much smaller and is a regional rather than a global feature – quite large changes can occur in a few ka. This review is concerned with changes in the dipole component of the geomagnetic field, and one of the problems is in separating the non-dipole from the dipole contributions to the field. Unlike the many determinations of the direction of the Earth's magnetic field in the past (which have led to fundamental contributions to our understanding of plate tectonics and shown that the field can on occasion reverse its polarity), estimates of the intensity of the field are comparatively few, especially before the Holocene. This is mainly the result of experimental difficulties in obtaining reliable measurements of the field. These problems are discussed in some detail and are followed by a short account of archaeomagnetic intensities and results from Hawaii where many of the first determinations were obtained. Measurements for the last 100 ka from both lavas and lacustrine and oceanic sediments are reviewed and results from different areas compared. An asymmetric saw-tooth pattern has been observed in some of the records over the last few Ma, and this rather controversial question is discussed. Finally an account is given of the far more limited data on palaeointensities in earlier times.A short discussion is given of the interpretation of coherent short wavelength variations which are observed in many marine magnetic profiles. Although short reversals of the field may be responsible for some of these tiny wiggles, it is more likely that in general they are the result of changes in the strength of the Earth's magnetic field.     

On the mean motion induced by transient inertio-gravity waves

Using standard two-scaling techniques we calculate the Eulerian- and Lagrangianmean flows induced at second order in amplitude by small-amplitude, transient, non-dissipative, vertically-propagating inertio-gravity waves on anf-plane. The example is an idealized one, but illustrates a number of important features that are typical of wave, mean-flow interaction in a rotating, stratified fluid. Physical discussion of the solution is given in Section 4 of the review byMcIntyre (1980), which appears elsewhere in this issue.     

The publications of Gordon A. Macdonald, 1934–1978

Dr. Gordon Andrew Macdonald’s publication list reflects the developments in volcanology over more than 40 years. Of his publications, 227 are recorded in this bibliography, which is divided into three sections: Scientific articles, Books, and Miscellaneous papers.     

邢台余震频度增高及以后发生的华北强震

本文就1966年邢台地震的余震频度的增高出现于华北诸大震之前的事实, 讨论了余震活动区可以作为监视区域构造应力场增减情况的“窗口”, 邢台余震频度增高可以作为华北地区大震活动的前兆.      

COMMENT ON ‘THE RESOLUTION OF NARROW LOW-VELOCITY ZONES WITH THE GENERALIZED RECIPROCAL METHOD’ BY DERECKE PALMER1

The following discussion concentrates on one of the synthetic examples used by Palmer (1991) to justify his method of seismic refraction interpretation (Fig. 2, p. 1035) and on his field data and interpretation of the first field example (a collapsed doline) which appeared on pp. 1050–1053.