Potential impact of climate change on marine dimethyl sulfide emissions

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is a biogenic compound produced in sea-surface water and outgased to the atmosphere. Once in the atmosphere, DMS is a significant source of cloud condensation nuclei in the unpolluted marine atmosphere. It has been postulated that climate may be partly modulated by variations in DMS production through a DMS-cloud condensation nuclei-albedo feedback. We present here a modelled estimation of the response of DMS sea-water concentrations and DMS fluxes to climate change, following previous work on marine DMS modeling ( Aumont et al., 2002 ) and on the global warming impact on marine biology ( Bopp et al., 2001 ). An atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (GCM) was coupled to a marine biogeochemical scheme and used without flux correction to simulate climate response to increased greenhouse gases (a 1% increase per year in atmospheric CO₂ until it has doubled). The predicted global distribution of DMS at  1 × CO₂  compares reasonably well with observations; however, in the high latitudes, very elevated concentrations of DMS due to spring and summer blooms of Phaeocystis can not be reproduced. At  2 × CO₂  , the model estimates a small increase of global DMS flux to the atmosphere (+2%) but with large spatial heterogeneities (from −15% to +30% for the zonal mean). Mechanisms affecting DMS fluxes are changes in (1) marine biological productivity, (2) relative abundance of phytoplankton species and (3) wind intensity. The mean DMS flux perturbation we simulate represents a small negative feedback on global warming; however, the large regional changes may significantly impact regional temperature and precipitation patterns.     

Climate feedback efficiency and synergy

Earth’s climate sensitivity to radiative forcing induced by a doubling of the atmospheric CO₂ is determined by feedback mechanisms, including changes in atmospheric water vapor, clouds and surface albedo, that act to either amplify or dampen the response. The climate system is frequently interpreted in terms of a simple energy balance model, in which it is assumed that individual feedback mechanisms are additive and act independently. Here we test these assumptions by systematically controlling, or locking, the radiative feedbacks in a state-of-the-art climate model. The method is shown to yield a near-perfect decomposition of change into partial temperature contributions pertaining to forcing and each of the feedbacks. In the studied model water vapor feedback stands for about half the temperature change, CO₂-forcing about one third, while cloud and surface albedo feedback contributions are relatively small. We find a close correspondence between forcing, feedback and partial surface temperature response for the water vapor and surface albedo feedbacks, while the cloud feedback is inefficient in inducing surface temperature change. Analysis suggests that cloud-induced warming in the upper tropical troposphere, consistent with rising convective cloud anvils in a warming climate enhances the negative lapse-rate feedback, thereby offsetting some of the warming that would otherwise be attributable to this positive cloud feedback. By subsequently combining feedback mechanisms we find a positive synergy acting between the water vapor feedback and the cloud feedback; that is, the combined cloud and water vapor feedback is greater than the sum of its parts. Negative synergies surround the surface albedo feedback, as associated cloud and water vapor changes dampen the anticipated climate change induced by retreating snow and ice. Our results highlight the importance of treating the coupling between clouds, water vapor and temperature in a deepening troposphere.     

The DMS-cloud albedo feedback effect: Greatly underestimated?

There are a number of ways by which the biosphere may counter any impetus for global warming that might be produced by the rising CO₂ content of earth's atmosphere. Evidence for one of these phenomena, the DMS-cloud feedback effect, is discussed in light of recent claims that it is not of sufficient strength to be of much importance.     

A pseudo-Lagrangian study of the sulfur budget in the remote Arctic marine boundary layer

The atmospheric sulfur cycle of the remote Arctic marine boundary layer is studied using trajectories and measurements of sulfur compounds from the International Arctic Ocean Expedition 1991, along with a pseudo-Lagrangian approach and an analytical model. The dimethyl sulfide [DMS(g)] turnover time was  h. Only  % of DMS(g) followed reaction paths to sulfur dioxide [SO₂(g)], sub-micrometre aerosol non-seasalt sulfate (nss-SO₄²⁻) or methane sulfonate (MSA). During the first 3 d of transport over the pack ice, fog deposition and drizzle resulted in short turnover times;  h for SO₂(g),  h for MSA and  h for nss-SO₄²⁻. Therefore, DMS(g) will, owing to its origin along or south of the ice edge and longer turnover time, survive the original sub-micrometre sulfur aerosol mass and gradually replace it with new biogenic sulfur aerosol mass. The advection of DMS(g) along with heat and moisture will influence the clouds and fogs over the Arctic pack ice through the formation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). If the pack ice cover were to decrease owing to a climate change, the total Arctic Ocean DMS production would change, and potentially there could be an ice–DMS–cloud–albedo climate feedback effect, but it would be accompanied by changes in the fog aerosol sink.     

Cloud albedo feedback and the super greenhouse effect in a global coupled GCM

Two competing cloud-radiative feedbacks identified in previous studies i.e., cloud albedo feedback and the super greenhouse effect, are examined in a sensitivity study with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Cloud albedo feedback is strengthened in a sensitivity experiment by lowering the sea-surface temperature (SST) threshold in the specified cloud albedo feedback scheme. This simple parameterization requires coincident warm SSTs and deep convection for upper-level cloud albedos to increase. The enhanced cloud albedo feedback in the sensitivity experiment results in decreased maximum values of SST and cooler surface temperatures over most areas of the planet. There is also a cooling of the tropical troposphere with attendant global changes of atmospheric circulation reminiscent of those observed during La Niña or cold events in the Southern Oscillation. The strengthening of the cloud albedo feedback only occurs over warm tropical oceans (e.g., the western Pacific warm pool), where there is increased albedo, decreased absorbed solar radiation at the surface, stronger surface westerlies, enhanced westward currents, lower temperatures, and decreased precipitation and evaporation. However, the weakened convection over the tropical western Pacific Ocean alters the large-scale circulation in the tropics such that there is increased upper-level divergence over tropical land areas and the tropical Indian Ocean. This results in increased precipitation in those regions and intensified monsoonal regimes. The enhanced precipitation over tropical land areas produces increased clouds and albedo and wetter and cooler land surfaces. These additional contributions to decreased absorbed solar input at the surface combine with similar changes over the tropical oceans to produce the global cooling associated with the stronger cloud albedo feedback. Increased low-level moisture convergence and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean enhance slightly the super greenhouse effect there. But the stronger cloud albedo feedback is still the dominant effect, although cooling of SSTs in that region is less than in the tropical western Pacific Ocean. The sensitivity experiment demonstrates how a regional change of radiative forcing is quickly transmitted globally through a combination of radiative and dynamical processes in the coupled model. This study points to the uncertainties involved with the parameterization of cloud albedo and the major implications of such parameterizations concerning the maximum values of SST, global climate sensitivity, and climate change.Support is provided by the Office of Health and Environmental Research of the U.S. Department of Energy, as part of its Carbon Dioxide Research Program.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Dimethylsulphide production in the subantarctic southern ocean under enhanced greenhouse conditions

Dimethylsulphide (DMS) is an important sulphur‐containing trace gas produced by enzymatic cleavage of its precursor compound, dimethylsulphoniopropionate (DMSP), which is released by marine phytoplankton in the upper ocean. After ventilation to the atmosphere, DMS is oxidised to form sulphate aerosols which in the unpolluted marine atmosphere are a major source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Because the micro‐physical properties of clouds relevant to climate change are sensitive to CCN concentration in air, it has been postulated that marine sulphur emissions may play a rôle in climate regulation. The Subantarctic Southern Ocean (41–53°S) is relatively free of anthropogenic sulphur emissions, thus sulphate aerosols will be mainly derived from the biogenic source of DMS, making it an ideal region in which to evaluate the DMS‐climate regulation hypothesis. We have extended a previous modelling analysis of the DMS cycle in this region by employing a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) which has been run in transient mode to provide a more realistic climate scenario. The CGCM output provided meteorological data under the IPCC/IS92a radiative forcing scenario. A DMS production model has been forced with the CGCM climate data to simulate the trend in the sea‐to‐air DMS flux for the period 1960 to 2080, corresponding to equivalent CO₂ tripling relative to pre‐industrial levels. The results confirm a minor but non‐negligible increase in DMS flux in this region, in the range +1% to +6% predicted over the period simulated. Uncertainty analysis of the DMS model predictions have confirmed the positive sign for the change in DMS flux, that is a negative DMS feedback on warming.     

On the Regulation of Climate: A Sulfate Particle Feedback Loop Involving Deep Convection

We propose a climate stabilizing feedback loop involving biogenic sulfur. The mechanism is similar to the "CLAW" hypothesis (Charlson et al., 1987) but does not require the active participation of the ocean biota. The magnitude of the feedback response in this loop is derived by convective transport of biogenic sulfur over tropical oceans into the middle and high troposphere. Once aloft, the sulfur is oxidized into low-volatile species which nucleate new particles that later subside back into the subtropical marine boundary layer (MBL) and serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The MBL clouds are susceptible to albedo modification by changes in CCN concentrations (Platnick and Twomey, 1995). We envision that as global temperatures rise the sea surface warms, convective mass transport of sulfur will rise and the increased mass of sulfur in the upper troposphere will lead to higher numbers of particles or a shift in the particle size distribution to larger sizes. In either case, there is an increase in the number of particles large enough to act as CCN in the air subsiding backinto the MBL. The increase in CCN increases the cloud albedo, decreases the solar input to the surface and the temperature decreases. More measurements are needed to confirm whether the magnitude of increased sulfur carried through the loop as a function of increased sea surface temperature is sufficient to close the loop and regulate the climate.     

A review of dimethylsulfoxide in aquatic environments

Abstract

Dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) is an ubiquitous, albeit poorly understood, component of the marine sulfur cycle. Conventionally, the accepted formation pathways are the photochemical and microbial oxidation of dimethylsulfide (DMS). The principal loss mechanism is thought to be via microbial transformation, either consumption or reduction to DMS. The interactions between DMSO and DMS are likely to be important in controlling sea surface concentrations of DMS, and thus DMSO could influence the role played by DMS in global climate regulation. This review examines current knowledge of the distribution of DMSO in aquatic environments and the possible link between DMSO, DMS and global climate control. Mechanisms for the formation and loss of DMSO are also considered in addition to some of the factors influencing these processes. The review also considers that DMSO may be biosynthesized by phytoplankton, representing a non‐DMS source for DMSO, and that DMSO can undergo photochemical oxidation, a potential loss mechanism for DMSO in the marine environment.     

Atmospheric radiative feedbacks associated with transient climate change and climate variability

This study examines in detail the ‘atmospheric’ radiative feedbacks operating in a coupled General Circulation Model (GCM). These feedbacks (defined as the change in top of atmosphere radiation per degree of global surface temperature change) are due to responses in water vapour, lapse rate, clouds and surface albedo. Two types of radiative feedback in particular are considered: those arising from century scale ‘transient’ warming (from a 1% per annum compounded CO₂ increase), and those operating under the model’s own unforced ‘natural’ variability. The time evolution of the transient (or ‘secular’) feedbacks is first examined. It is found that both the global strength and the latitudinal distributions of these feedbacks are established within the first two or three decades of warming, and thereafter change relatively little out to 100 years. They also closely approximate those found under equilibrium warming from a ‘mixed layer’ ocean version of the same model forced by a doubling of CO₂. These secular feedbacks are then compared with those operating under unforced (interannual) variability. For water vapour, the interannual feedback is only around two-thirds the strength of the secular feedback. The pattern reveals widespread regions of negative feedback in the interannual case, in turn resulting from patterns of circulation change and regions of decreasing as well as increasing surface temperature. Considering the vertical structure of the two, it is found that although positive net mid to upper tropospheric contributions dominate both, they are weaker (and occur lower) under interannual variability than under secular change and are more narrowly confined to the tropics. Lapse rate feedback from variability shows weak negative feedback over low latitudes combined with strong positive feedback in mid-to-high latitudes resulting in no net global feedback—in contrast to the dominant negative low to mid-latitude response seen under secular climate change. Surface albedo feedback is, however, slightly stronger under interannual variability—partly due to regions of extremely weak, or even negative, feedback over Antarctic sea ice in the transient experiment. Both long and shortwave global cloud feedbacks are essentially zero on interannual timescales, with the shortwave term also being very weak under climate change, although cloud fraction and optical property components show correlation with global temperature both under interannual variability and transient climate change. The results of this modelling study, although for a single model only, suggest that the analogues provided by interannual variability may provide some useful pointers to some aspects of climate change feedback strength, particularly for water vapour and surface albedo, but that structural differences will need to be heeded in such an analysis.     

On the interpretation of inter-model spread in CMIP5 climate sensitivity estimates

This study diagnoses the climate sensitivity, radiative forcing and climate feedback estimates from eleven general circulation models participating in the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and analyzes inter-model differences. This is done by taking into account the fact that the climate response to increased carbon dioxide (CO₂) is not necessarily only mediated by surface temperature changes, but can also result from fast land warming and tropospheric adjustments to the CO₂ radiative forcing. By considering tropospheric adjustments to CO₂ as part of the forcing rather than as feedbacks, and by using the radiative kernels approach, we decompose climate sensitivity estimates in terms of feedbacks and adjustments associated with water vapor, temperature lapse rate, surface albedo and clouds. Cloud adjustment to CO₂ is, with one exception, generally positive, and is associated with a reduced strength of the cloud feedback; the multi-model mean cloud feedback is about 33 % weaker. Non-cloud adjustments associated with temperature, water vapor and albedo seem, however, to be better understood as responses to land surface warming. Separating out the tropospheric adjustments does not significantly affect the spread in climate sensitivity estimates, which primarily results from differing climate feedbacks. About 70 % of the spread stems from the cloud feedback, which remains the major source of inter-model spread in climate sensitivity, with a large contribution from the tropics. Differences in tropical cloud feedbacks between low-sensitivity and high-sensitivity models occur over a large range of dynamical regimes, but primarily arise from the regimes associated with a predominance of shallow cumulus and stratocumulus clouds. The combined water vapor plus lapse rate feedback also contributes to the spread of climate sensitivity estimates, with inter-model differences arising primarily from the relative humidity responses throughout the troposphere. Finally, this study points to a substantial role of nonlinearities in the calculation of adjustments and feedbacks for the interpretation of inter-model spread in climate sensitivity estimates. We show that in climate model simulations with large forcing (e.g., 4 × CO₂), nonlinearities cannot be assumed minor nor neglected. Having said that, most results presented here are consistent with a number of previous feedback studies, despite the very different nature of the methodologies and all the uncertainties associated with them.     

The effect of land surface changes on Eemian climate

Transient experiments for the Eemian (128–113 ky BP) were performed with a complex, coupled earth system model, including atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere and marine biogeochemistry. In order to investigate the effect of land surface parameters (background albedo, vegetation and tree fraction and roughness length) on the simulated changes during the Eemian, simulations with interactive coupling between climate and vegetation were compared with additional experiments in which these feedbacks were suppressed. The experiments show that the influence of land surface on climate is mainly caused by changes in the albedo. For the northern hemisphere high latitudes, land surface albedo is changed partially due to the direct albedo effect of the conversion of grasses into forest, but the indirect effect of forests on snow albedo appears to be the major factor influencing the total absorption of solar radiation. The Western Sahara region experiences large changes in land surface albedo due to the appearance of vegetation between 128 and 120 ky BP. These local land surface albedo changes can be as much as 20%, thereby affecting the local as well as the global energy balance. On a global scale, latent heat loss over land increases more than 10% for 126 ky BP compared to present-day.     

Empirical Estimates of Global Climate Sensitivity： An Assessment of Strategies Using a Coupled GCM

A control integration with the normal solar constant and one with it increased by 2.5% in the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCAR） coupled atmosphere-ocean Climate System Model were conducted to see how well the actual realized global warming could be predicted just by analysis of the control results. This is a test, within a model context, of proposals that have been advanced to use knowledge of the present day climate to make ＂empirical＂ estimates of global climate sensitivity. The scaling of the top-of-the-atmosphere infrared flux and the planetary albedo as functions of surface temperature was inferred by examining four different temporal and geographical variations of the control simulations. Each of these inferences greatly overestimates the climate sensitivity of the model, largely because of the behavior of the cloud albedo. In each inference the control results suggest that cloudiness and albedo decrease with increasing surface temperature. However, the experiment with the increased solar constant actually has higher albedo and more cloudiness at most latitudes. The increased albedo is a strong negative feedback, and this helps account for the rather weak sensitivity of the climate in the NCAR model. To the extent that these model results apply to the real world, they suggest empirical evaluation of the scaling of global-mean radiative properties with surface temperature in the present day climate provides little useful guidance for estimates of the actual climate sensitivity to global changes.     

Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM without flux corrections: experimental design and results

In this study, we constructed a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) for the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (CGCM) to investigate the parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity (CS). Previous studies of PPEs have mainly used the atmosphere-slab ocean models. A few PPE studies using a CGCM applied flux corrections, because perturbations in parameters can lead to large radiation imbalances at the top of the atmosphere and climate drifts. We developed a method to prevent climate drifts in PPE experiments using the MIROC5 CGCM without flux corrections. We simultaneously swept 10 parameters in atmosphere and surface schemes. The range of CS (estimated from our 35 ensemble members) was not wide (2.2–3.2?°C). The shortwave cloud feedback related to changes in middle-level cloud albedo dominated the variations in the total feedback. We found three performance metrics for the present climate simulations of middle-level cloud albedo, precipitation, and ENSO amplitude that systematically relate to the variations in shortwave cloud feedback in this PPE.     

On the persistent spread in snow-albedo feedback

Snow-albedo feedback (SAF) is examined in 25 climate change simulations participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5). SAF behavior is compared to the feedback’s behavior in the previous (CMIP3) generation of global models. SAF strength exhibits a fivefold spread across CMIP5 models, ranging from 0.03 to 0.16 W m^?2 K^?1 (ensemble-mean = 0.08 W m^?2 K^?1). This accounts for much of the spread in 21st century warming of Northern Hemisphere land masses, and is very similar to the spread found in CMIP3 models. As with the CMIP3 models, there is a high degree of correspondence between the magnitudes of seasonal cycle and climate change versions of the feedback. Here we also show that their geographical footprint is similar. The ensemble-mean SAF strength is close to an observed estimate of the real climate’s seasonal cycle feedback strength. SAF strength is strongly correlated with the climatological surface albedo when the ground is covered by snow. The inter-model variation in this quantity is surprisingly large, ranging from 0.39 to 0.75. Models with large surface albedo when these regions are snow-covered will also have a large surface albedo contrast between snow-covered and snow-free regions, and therefore a correspondingly large SAF. Widely-varying treatments of vegetation masking of snow-covered surfaces are probably responsible for the spread in surface albedo where snow occurs, and the persistent spread in SAF in global climate models.     

Planetary albedo in strongly forced climate, as simulated by the CMIP3 models

In an ensemble of general circulation models, the global mean albedo significantly decreases in response to strong CO₂ forcing. In some of the models, the magnitude of this positive feedback is as large as the CO₂ forcing itself. The models agree well on the surface contribution to the trend, due to retreating snow and ice cover, but display large differences when it comes to the contribution from shortwave radiative effects of clouds. The ??cloud contribution?? defined as the difference between clear-sky and all-sky albedo anomalies and denoted as ??CC is correlated with equilibrium climate sensitivity in the models (correlation coefficient 0.76), indicating that in high sensitivity models the clouds to a greater extent act to enhance the negative clear-sky albedo trend, whereas in low sensitivity models the clouds rather counteract this trend. As a consequence, the total albedo trend is more negative in more sensitive models (correlation coefficient 0.73). This illustrates in a new way the importance of cloud response to global warming in determining climate sensitivity in models. The cloud contribution to the albedo trend can primarily be ascribed to changes in total cloud fraction, but changes in cloud albedo may also be of importance.     

Climate feedbacks in a general circulation model incorporating prognostic clouds

 This study performs a comprehensive feedback analysis on the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre General Circulation Model, quantifying all important feedbacks operating under an increase in atmospheric CO₂. The individual feedbacks are analysed in detail, using an offline radiation perturbation method, looking at long- and shortwave components, latitudinal distributions, cloud impacts, non-linearities under 2xCO₂ and 4xCO₂ warmings and at interannual variability. The water vapour feedback is divided into terms due to moisture height and amount changes. The net cloud feedback is separated into terms due to cloud amount, height, water content, water phase, physical thickness and convective cloud fraction. Globally the most important feedbacks were found to be (from strongest positive to strongest negative) those due to water vapour, clouds, surface albedo, lapse rate and surface temperature. For the longwave (LW) response the most important term of the cloud ‘optical property’ feedbacks is due to the water content. In the shortwave (SW), both water content and water phase changes are important. Cloud amount and height terms are also important for both LW and SW. Feedbacks due to physical cloud thickness and convective cloud fraction are found to be relatively small. All cloud component feedbacks (other than height) produce conflicting LW/SW feedbacks in the model. Furthermore, the optical property and cloud fraction feedbacks are also of opposite sign. The result is that the net cloud feedback is the (relatively small) product of conflicting physical processes. Non-linearities in the feedbacks are found to be relatively small for all but the surface albedo response and some cloud component contributions. The cloud impact on non-cloud feedbacks is also discussed: greatest impact is on the surface albedo, but impact on water vapour feedback is also significant. The analysis method here proves to be a␣powerful tool for detailing the contributions from different model processes (and particularly those of the clouds) to the final climate model sensitivity. Received: 15 June 2000 / Accepted: 10 January 2001     

A DIAGNOSTIC STUDY OF FEEDBACK MECHANISM IN GREENHOUSE EFFECTS SIMULATED BY NCAR CCM1

This paper describes a diagnostic study of the feedback mechanism in greenhouse effects of increased CO_2 and oth-er trace gases(CH_4,N_2O and CFCs),simulated by general circulation model.The study is based on two sensitivity exper-iments for doubled CO_2 and the inclusion of other trace gases,respectively,using version one of the community climatemodel(CCM1)developed at the National Centre for Atmospheric Research.A one-dimensional(1-D)and atwo-dimensional(2-D)radiative-convective models are used to diagnose the feedback effect.It shows that thefeedback factors in global and annual mean conditions are in the sequence of surface albedo,water vapor amount,watervapor distribution,cloud height,critical lapse rate and cloud cover,while in zonal and annual mean conditions in thetropical region the above sequence does not change except the two water vapor terms being the largest feedback compo-nents.Among the feedback components,the total water vapor feedback is the largest(about 50%).The diagnosis alsogives a very small feedback of either the cloud cover or the lapse rate,which is substantially different from the 1-Dfeedback analysis by Hansen et al.(1984).The small lapse rate feedback is considered to be partly caused by theconvective adjustment scheme adopted by CCM1 model.The feedback effect for doubled CO_2 is very different from that of the addition of other trace gases because of theirdifferent vertical distributions of radiative forcing although the non-feedback responses of surface air temperature forboth cases are almost the same.For instance,the larger forcing at surface by the addition of other trace gases can causestronger surface albedo feedback than by doubled CO_2.Besides,because of the negative forcing of doubled CO_2 in thestratosphere,cloud height feedback is more intense.The larger surface forcing in the case of other trace gases can also in-fluence atmospheric water vapor amount as well as the water vapor distribution,which will in turn have strongerfeedback effects.All these indicate that it is incorrect to use“effective CO_2”to replace other trace gases in the generalcirculation model.     

Kinetic limitations on cloud droplet formation and impact on cloud albedo

Under certain conditions mass transfer limitations on the growth of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) may have a significant impact on the number of droplets that can form in a cloud. The assumption that particles remain in equilibrium until activated may therefore not always be appropriate for aerosol populations existing in the atmosphere. This work identifies three mechanisms that lead to kinetic limitations, the effect of which on activated cloud droplet number and cloud albedo is assessed using a one‐dimensional cloud parcel model with detailed microphysics for a variety of aerosol size distributions and updraft velocities. In assessing the effect of kinetic limitations, we have assumed as cloud droplets not only those that are strictly activated (as dictated by classical Köhler theory), but also unactivated drops large enough to have an impact on cloud optical properties. Aerosol number concentration is found to be the key parameter that controls the significance of kinetic effects. Simulations indicate that the equilibrium assumption leads to an overprediction of droplet number by less than 10% for marine aerosol; this overprediction can exceed 40% for urban type aerosol. Overall, the effect of kinetic limitations on cloud albedo can be considered important when equilibrium activation theory consistently overpredicts droplet number by more than 10%. The maximum change in cloud albedo as a result of kinetic limitations is less than 0.005 for cases such as marine aerosol; however albedo differences can exceed 0.1 under more polluted conditions. Kinetic limitations are thus not expected to be climatically significant on a global scale, but can regionally have a large impact on cloud albedo.     

Climate sensitivity and climate state

The effective climate feedback/sensitivity, including its components, is a robust first order feature of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled global climate model (GCM) and presumably of the climate system. Feedback/sensitivity characterizes the surface air temperature response to changes in radiative forcing and is constant, to first order, independent of the nature, history, and magnitude of the forcing and of the changing climate state. This "constancy" can only be approximate, however, and modest second order changes of 10–20% are found in stabilization simulations in which the forcing, based on the IS92a scenario, is fixed (stabilized) at year 2050 and 2100 values and the system is integrated for an additional 1000 years toward a new equilibrium. Both positive and negative feedback mechanisms tend to strengthen, with the balance tilted toward stronger negative feedback and hence weaker climate sensitivity, as the system evolves and warms. Some feedback mechanisms weaken locally, however, and an example of such is the ice/snow albedo feedback which is less effective in areas of the Northern Hemisphere where ice/snow has retreated. Changes in the geographical distribution of the feedbacks are modest and weakening feedback in one region is often counteracted by strengthening feedback in other regions so that global and zonal values do not reflect the dominance of a particular mechanism or region but rather the residual of changes in different components and regions. The overall 10–20% strengthening of the negative feedback (decrease in climate sensitivity) in the CCCma model contrasts with a weakening of negative feedback (increase in climate sensitivity) of over 20% in the Hadley Centre model under similar conditions. The different behaviour in the two models is due primarily to solar cloud feedback with a strengthening of the negative solar cloud feedback in the CCCma model contrasting with a weakening of it in the Hadley Centre model. The importance of processes which determine cloud properties and distribution is again manifest both in determining first order climate feedback/sensitivity and also in determining its second order variation with climate state.     

Snow and cloud feedbacks modelled by an atmospheric general circulation model

One of the most important parametrizations in general circulation models used for climate change experiments is that of the surface albedo. The results of an albedo feedback experiment carried out under the auspices of the US Department of Energy are presented. An analysis of long and short wave components of the model response shows that short wave response dominates changes in fixed to variable albedo experiments, but that long wave response dominates in clear to cloudy sky changes. Cloud distribution changes are also discussed and are related to changes in global sensitivity. At the surface, the heat balance change for perturbed sea surface temperatures is dominated by changes in latent heat flux and downward long wave radiation. If albedo is freed up however, the major contrast lies in the change in surface reflected short wave radiation, amplified by changes in downward short wave radiation caused by cloud amount changes.