Effects of “Grain for Green” reforestation program on rural sustainability in China: an AHP approach to peasant consensus of public land use policies

Climate change will affect the regional ability to achieve the poverty reduction and sustainable development (SD) objectives. Thus, any action plans to achieve these objectives should make climate change policies an integral part of the development planning process. The best practices and measures of climate change policies should be implemented to ensure regional or community sustainability. In this paper, a case study that promotes the integration of carbon sequestration into sustainable forest management and rural development plan with multi-stakeholders participation is introduced. To achieve SD goals, appropriate tools and methods are required to address impacts of alternative forest land uses on carbon sequestration and rural sustainability, and to prioritise land use options. A range of forest land use scenarios that address various aspects of the forest carbon sequestration rate and rural sustainability are evaluated against a SD indicator system. Planting vegetation is one of the practical approaches in mitigating global warming by sequestrating carbon from the atmosphere to plant matter and soil. In order to protect environment, reduce excessive soil erosion, and decrease the propensity and frequency of flooding and other natural disasters, China has initiated nationwide pivotal projects such as “Grain for Green” to mitigate exacerbated environmental deterioration and degradation. Such ecological programs may affect the socio-economic livelihoods of peasants and the economic activities of the whole region. The impact and economic uncertainty associated with such projects urge policy makers to include all stakeholders in the decision making process so that an agreeable solution towards sustainable rural development can be identified. This study uses Liping County in Guizhou province as a case study to identify a consensus among peasants regarding planting selected tree-species. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used as a multicriteria decision making tool to rank sustainability criteria and determine the priority of options. The method helps policy makers to understand what the peasants want to achieve by participating in a Grain for Green program and what their priorities are with respect to particular types of vegetation. The case study finds that economic and financial concerns are the most important drivers of the decision of which trees to plant among the peasants who took part in the implementation of the Grain for Green program. As a result of this, Gingko, redpine, and Chinese chestnut were the predominant trees planted under the program. The integrated assessment based on the AHP method provides an effective tool to help understand how economic, social and environmental factors are related to each other in affecting the nature of rural sustainability.     

A multistage simulation-based optimization model for water resources management in Tarim River Basin, China

In this study, a multistage simulation-based optimization model is developed for supporting water resources management under uncertainty. The system couples a lumped rainfall-runoff model with an inexact multistage stochastic program, where its random parameter is provided by the statistical analysis of simulation outcomes. Moreover, penalties are exercised with recourse against any infeasibility, which permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. The developed model can also reflect dynamic features of the system conditions through transactions at discrete points in time over a multistage context. The developed model is applied to a real case of planning water resources management in Tarim River Basin, which is one of the most serious water-shortage regions of China. A variety of policies associated with different water-allocation targets are analyzed. The results are helpful for decision makers identifying optimal water-allocation plans for mitigating the conflict among ecological protection, economic development, and regional sustainability.     

A systems dynamic model of a coal-based city with multiple adaptive scenarios: A case study of Ordos,China

Cities based on coal resources have increasingly important social and economic roles in China. Their strategies for sustainable development, however, urgently need to be improved, which represents a huge challenge. Most observers believe that the continued progress of these cities relies on the optimization of scientific adaptive management in which social, economic, and ecological factors are incorporated. A systems perspective that combines policies, management priorities, and long-term policy impacts needs to be applied. To date, however, such an approach has not been adopted, which means it is difficult to implement adaptive management at the regional scale. In this study, we used various situations to develop a multiple adaptive scenario system dynamics model. We then simulated a range of policy scenarios, with Ordos in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as a case study. Simulation results showed that the current strategy is not sustainable and predicted that the system would exceed the environmental capacity, with risks of resource exhaustion and urban decline in 2025–2035. Five critical policy variables, including the urban population carrying capacity, rates of water consumption and water recycling, and expansion of urban land cover, were identified during sensitivity analysis. We developed and compared six socio-economic scenarios. The urban area, represented by the urban population density, seemed to transition through five different stages, namely natural growth, rapid growth, stable oscillation, fading, and rebalancing. Our scenarios suggested that different policies had different roles through each stage. The water use efficiency management policy had a comprehensive far-reaching influence on the system behavior; land urbanization management functions dominated at the start, and population capacity management was a major control in the mid-term. Our results showed that the water recycling policy and the urban population carrying capacity were extremely important, and both should be reinforced and evaluated by the local governments.     

Total consumption controlled water allocation management for multiple sources and users with inexact fuzzy chance-constrained programming: a case study of Tianjin,China

Environmental and ecological issues caused by water resources crisis have brought enormous challenges to the sustainable development of water-deficient area. Water resources allocation management balancing the relationship between the social-economic development and the ecological environment has become a hot topic in recent years. In this paper, an inexact fuzzy chance-constrained programming (IFCCP) approach is proposed for regional water resource allocation optimization with the aim of promoting the harmonious development of the social economic and the ecological environment, improving water utilization efficiency, and realizing water resources consumption control under uncertainties. The method is incorporated with interval parameter programming, fuzzy programming, and chance-constrained programming, for handling system uncertainties and balancing the optimal objectives with the risk of violating system constraints. Under this framework, an IFCCP model for water resources allocation management was successfully formulated and applied to a typical water-deficit area, Tianjin, China, for obtaining a better water resources plan among multiple users under resources and environmental limitation. Different total water consumption control policies are designed for assessing regional water allocation schemes. The results indicated that the gap of supply and demand will only be solved by foreign water, the transferred water from Luan River and Changjiang River would still be the main supplier in planning horizon. Moreover, the strict total water consumption control policy would guarantee the water requirement of ecological environment, lead to changes in the structure of water supply, actively guide on water conservation, and promote the large-scale utilization of desalted water and recycle water.     

The Baltic Basin Case Study—towards a sustainable Baltic Europe

Four watersheds, each characterized by a major resource use were selected for the study: The Vistula River in Poland—agriculture; the Dalälven River in Sweden—forestry; the Archipelago Sea in Sweden, Finland, Estonia—tourism; and the Lake Peipsi in Estonia/Russia—fisheries/agriculture. The main objective was to examine the reactions of particular ecosystems within the Baltic Sea drainage area, and to assess sustainability conditions on the regional level.The degree of sustainability and impact on the Baltic Sea were investigated through workshops and seminars in the areas. Overviews of environmental and socio-economic conditions were succinctly summarized in commissioned papers. Interventions by and discussions with scholars, sector experts, administrators and stakeholders of the various sites laid the foundation for conceptualizing the interaction of natural and human forces for each case. The project was able to draw quite a number of conclusions, summarized as the following lessons learnt.In the Vistula Region, nutrient emissions have levelled off but shortage of freshwater is critical. Forestry in the Dalälven watershed is largely environmental-friendly, except for fragmentation of the landscape and its negative impact on biodiversity. In the Archipelago area a former low-energy community has been replaced by a leisure time society. Different types of tourism is developing, but despite this variety, an improved integration of ecological properties with socio-economic patterns is required in order to build a sustainable, living Archipelago. The lake Peipsi basin and the surrounding area suffer both from problems of resource management and economic backwardness. Parts of the local economy has lost access to the one time large Soviet market, although the Estonian side has apparently benefited from present economic growth. To cope with the division of the lake, a regime for trans-national management is unfolding. It is based on both informal and, to an increasing extent, agreed professional contacts.Networks of engaged people were in all sites a resource for and promoter of the sustainability path. In order to succeed and to maintain the zeal, they need strong institutional support and common goals. Public programmes in the Baltic, ie. the work of the Helsinki Commission and Baltic Agenda 21, have developed instruments to enhance sustainability beneficial for the management of these watersheds. But critical tasks remain to be done in developing a shared understanding of ways to improve management of ecosystems with social factors.     

鄱阳湖流域可持续发展综合模型框架

本文以鄱阳湖流域为例,所描述的流域可持续发展框架是一个基于流域系统理论和实践的生态系统模型.包括了三个主要的部分:(1)环境政策与规划;(2)地球空间信息系统;(3)社区发展与区域网络.框架将多个学科,如:流域生态学,环境规划,可持续发展与资源管理汇集一起,形成了一套综合的流域制图、模拟和监测的流域管理方法.     

Quantitative simulation and verification of upgrade law of sustainable development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration

The natural formation and development of urban agglomerations is a process in which core cities continue to unite their neighboring cities to enhance sustainability for their own sustainable development.The upgrade mechanism of sustainable development urban agglomeration is a nonlinear composite upgrade curve that is a function of time,increasing with the number of cities.In this paper,the sustainable upgrade function curve,upgrade rate,and upgrade speed of urban agglomerations were solved using a geometrical derivation,and the index system for measuring the upgrade capability of sustainable development of urban agglomerations was established.The dynamic change in economic sustainable upgrade capability,social sustainable upgrade capability,environmental sustainable upgrade capability,and comprehensive sustainable upgrade capability of a Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2015 was measured by technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution and a grey correlation method,and a comprehensive,intercity unite strength model and a unite threshold calculation method for urban agglomerations were established.The research shows that the economic sustainable upgrade capability,social sustainable upgrade capability,environmental sustainable upgrade capability,and comprehensive sustainable upgrade capability of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration all show a wave-like rising trend.The average annual upgrade speeds during 2000-2015 are,respectively,2.4%.1.67%,1.1%,and 1.74%,with the intercity comprehensive unite strength of urban agglomerations maintaining a general increase;but there is a limit to the joint threshold.From 2000 to 2015,as the core city of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,Beijing,to enhance its sustainable upgrade capability,jointly developed with Tianjin,Langfang,and Baoding before 2000,Tangshan in 2002,Cangzhou in 2009,Zhangjiakou and Shijiazhuang in 2012,and Chengde in 2014.By 2015,the comprehensive unite strength between Beijing and four cities(Handan,Qinhuangdao,Hengshui,and Xingtai) was still lower than the unite threshold of 6.14.These four cities are relatively far from Beijing,and offer no substantial contribution to the sustainable upgrade capability of Beijing.Through multiple fittings of the upgrade curve using the long-term sequence index of the comprehensive sustainable upgrade capability of Beijing(the core city of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration) from 2000 to 2015,it was found that the simulated curve of the comprehensive sustainable upgrade function of the agglomeration was very similar to the curve of the comprehensive sustainable upgrade capability,which indicates that the simulation results are satisfactory.The future comprehensive sustainable upgrade capability of the agglomeration can be analyzed and predicted by the comprehensive sustainable upgrade function model.This study provides quantitative decision-supporting evidence for promoting the coordinated development of the Beijing-TianjinHebei urban agglomeration and provides theoretical guidance and algorithms for determining the number of cities joined with the sustainable development of national urban agglomerations.     

Simulating the interactions between the water and the socio-economic system in a stressed endorheic basin

ABSTRACT

The endorheic basin of Zayandehrud in Iran suffers from environmental problems, social tensions, and economic instability. Lack of understanding how the water system and the socio-economic system interact may explain these challenges. A system dynamics model, being a holistic simulation tool, was developed for the Zayandehrud basin and used to evaluate several policy scenarios. The indices of employment, gross regional product, the volume of groundwater and surface water stored, flow into the basin’s end lake, and the water flow in the river were used to evaluate the scenarios. The findings demonstrate that focusing on supply-based activities or water demand management cannot solely improve the condition of the Zayandehrud basin. It is required to reconsider the development policies of the region in a broader context. Reducing the irrigated area by 15% and developing new industries up to a certain limit may make the combined water and socio-economic system sustainable.     

Performance‐based seismic assessment of conventional and base‐isolated steel buildings including environmental impact and resilience

Sustainability and resilience are issues that are recognized worldwide, and increased attention should be placed on strategies to design and maintain infrastructure systems that are hazard resilient, damage tolerant, and sustainable. In this paper, a methodology to evaluate the seismic sustainability and resilience of both conventional and base‐isolated steel buildings is presented. Furthermore, the proposed approach is used to explore the difference between the performance associated with these buildings by considering the three pillars of sustainability: economic, social, and environmental. Sustainability and resilience are both considered to cover a comprehensive performance‐based assessment content. The uncertainties associated with performance and consequence evaluation of structural and non‐structural components are incorporated within the assessment process. The proposed performance‐based assessment approach is illustrated on conventional and base‐isolated steel buildings under given seismic scenarios. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water ecological carrying capacity of urban lakes in the context of rapid urbanization: A case study of East Lake in Wuhan

With the excessive development of social economy, water scarcity and water environment deterioration become a common phenomenon in metropolis. As a crucial component of urban water environment system, urban lake is mainly influenced by social economic system and tourism system. In this paper, a framework for quantitatively evaluating development sustainability of urban lake was established by a multi-objective model that represented water ecological carrying capacity (WECC). And nine key indicators including population, irrigation area, tourist quantity, the average number of hotel daily reception, TP, TN, COD_Mn, BOD₅ were chosen from urban social-economy system and natural resilience aspects, with their index weight was determined by using the Structure Entropy Weight method. Then, we took Wuhan East Lake, the largest urban lake in China as a case study, and selected five time sections including 2002, 2004, 2007, 2009 and 2012 to synthetically evaluate and comparatively analyze the dynamic change of WECC. The results showed that: firstly, the water ecological carrying capacity values of the East Lake in five time sections were 1.17, 1.07, 1.64, 1.53 and 2.01 respectively, which all exceeded 1 and increased fluctuation. The rapid growth of population and GDP lead to sharply increasing demand for water quantity. However, a large amount of the domestic sewage and industrial waste led by economic development increases pressure on ecological environment of urban lakes. Secondly, the carrying capacity of the East Lake for tourist activities was still low. The value in 2012 was only 0.22, keeping at a slowly increasing phase, which indicates that the East Lake has large opportunity and space for developing the water resource carrying capacity and could make further efforts to attract tourists. Moreover, the WECC of the East Lake was mainly affected by rapid social and economic development and water environment damage caused by organic pollutants. From the view of urban water sustainable management, we must deeply recognize the reality that water shortages and the limited carrying capacity, and dynamic assessment of WECC provides an early warning approach and control direction of water environment. For the East Lake, it is the primary target to mitigate the carrying capacity of social-economy, especially for prevention of lake area encroachment shrinking and domestic wastewater discharge.     

Ecosystem objectives to support the UK vision for the marine environment

European Maritime States already have commitments to protect species and habitats and maintain quality standards in coastal and offshore waters. These are a direct response to environmental legislation in Europe and commitments made to biodiversity conservation in OSPAR and at the World Summit on Sustainable Development. An integrated approach to management requires that these are consistent with the requirements for sustainable development, and include wider social considerations and active stakeholder participation. This review describes a hierarchical framework that incorporates the marine objectives and delivery statements of ecological, social and economic sectors. The framework leads from the UK's guiding principles for sustainable development, through visionary statements and strategic goals for high level delivery, to operational objectives and statements of action which deliver management. Parts of this hierarchy can already be populated for the UK, especially those at the higher levels. At the operational level, however, there is less clarity. The review shows that, despite some gaps, existing commitments for ecological components of the ecosystem are transparent and generally conform to this framework, due largely to high profile government funding of environmental protection and science and a single national vision for the marine environment. Specific objectives for six components of the ecosystem were developed; benthic habitats, seabirds and mammals, phytoplankton and zooplankton, fish, and physical/chemical quality of the water and atmosphere. The objectives included some that avoided limits and others that aimed to achieve targets, and for management to be effective it will be important to have a common understanding of how these can together be interpreted and made operational. In a review of 13 social and economic sectors, few provided a clear breakdown of objectives leading from a high level vision or a sustainable development principle. Six sectors did not have high level government targets for production or other measures of sectoral performance. Such commercial operations generally determine their own operational delivery targets based on market forces. Recent proposals in Europe to create an integrated framework for social, economic and environmental activities will need to carefully balance the development of a strong and competitive marine economy with existing international obligations to environmental protection.     

Measurement of ecological capital of Chinese terrestrial ecosystem based on remote sensing

The biosphere of the Earth is the material founda-tion of human survival and development.With the increasing problems of the resources,the environment and population,most countries in the world have paid special attention to the measurement and evaluation of ecological capital,which refers to the sum of the direct natural resources value and the indirect ecosystem services value.Ecological capital depends on not only the quality of the national ecological environment,butalso the social recogni…     

The journey from safe yield to sustainability

Safe-yield concepts historically focused attention on the economic and legal aspects of ground water development. Sustainability concerns have brought environmental aspects more to the forefront and have resulted in a more integrated outlook. Water resources sustainability is not a purely scientific concept, but rather a perspective that can frame scientific analysis. The evolving concept of sustainability presents a challenge to hydrologists to translate complex, and sometimes vague, socioeconomic and political questions into technical questions that can be quantified systematically. Hydrologists can contribute to sustainable water resources management by presenting the longer-term implications of ground water development as an integral part of their analyses.     

Factors affecting sustainability of rural water schemes in Swaziland

The Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target to reduce the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water by the year 2015 has been met as of 2010, but huge disparities exist. Some regions, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa are lagging behind it is also in this region where up to 30% of the rural schemes are not functional at any given time. There is need for more studies on factors affecting sustainability and necessary measures which when implemented will improve the sustainability of rural water schemes. The main objective of this study was to assess the main factors affecting the sustainability of rural water schemes in Swaziland using a Multi-Criteria Analysis Approach. The main factors considered were: financial, social, technical, environmental and institutional. The study was done in Lubombo region. Fifteen functional water schemes in 11 communities were studied. Data was collected using questionnaires, checklist and focused group discussion guide. A total of 174 heads of households were interviewed. Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) was used to analyse the data and to calculate sustainability scores for water schemes. SPSS was also used to classify sustainability scores according to sustainability categories: sustainable, partially sustainable and non-sustainable. The averages of the ratings for the different sub-factors studied and the results on the sustainability scores for the sustainable, partially sustainable and non-sustainable schemes were then computed and compared to establish the main factors influencing sustainability of the water schemes. The results indicated technical and social factors as most critical while financial and institutional, although important, played a lesser role. Factors which contributed to the sustainability of water schemes were: functionality; design flow; water fetching time; ability to meet additional demand; use by population; equity; participation in decision making on operation and maintenance; existence of fund for operation and maintenance; willingness to contribute money; existence of a user’s committee; participation in the initial planning and design of the water scheme; and coordination between the local leaders and user’s committee. The main factors which made the schemes unsustainable were: long fetching time; non-involvement in decision making; lack of willingness to contribute funds; absence of users committee; and lack of cooperation between local leaders and the users committee. Water service providers should address the technical, social, financial and institutional factors identified affecting sustainability in their planning and implementation of rural water schemes.     

环境规制对无锡市制造业结构优化与绩效的影响

环境规制已成为促进区域发展方式转变和经济可持续发展的重要驱动力.本文以无锡市太湖水危机事件为例,首先对水危机前后的环境规制政策和手段进行对比分析,其次结合现有理论研究,总结了环境规制对制造业产业结构优化和绩效影响的理论框架,最后在对环境规制强度进行定量评估和对影响产业绩效各要素分析的基础上对理论框架进行验证.环境规制强度的评价结果表明,水危机事件后,环境规制强度显著增加,政府、技术、市场及社会工具的环境规制强度均值在2007-2009年期间比2001-2006年期间分别增加了2.2、1.0、2.6、0.7倍,政府在加强行政管理的同时开始积极探索市场化治理的工具,但以政府规制为主的治理模式仍然没有改变.回归结果进一步表明环境规制通过影响企业准入和提高技术效率,实现产业结构的优化和生产效率的提高,抵消了环境规制对生产成本增加而产生的消极作用,但是创新仍没有成为产业绩效增加的最主要动力.本研究对探讨经济和环境可持续发展模式以及环境规制手段的合理运用具有重要的理论借鉴意义.     

The changes of renewable water resources in China during 1956–2010

Water is a critical natural resource upon which all social and economic activities and ecosystem functions depend. With a surprising social and economic development in the past decades, water has become an important constraint for China’s sustainable development, and a matter concerning economic security, ecological security and national security of the country. Understanding the changes of water resources is greatly helpful in analyzing the impacts of climatic change, formulating plans for utilization and protection of water resources, and making water resource decisions. Based on China’s national water resources assessment, the Mann-Kendall’s test, and Morlet wavelet, we analyzed the changing trends and periods of China’s renewable water resources during 1956–2010. The results as following: (1) There is no significant change trend of water resources on the countrywide scale during the period 1956–2010, the total water resources show a slight increasing trend, and the national annual average water resources during the period 1991–2010 increased by 1% relative to that of the period 1961–1990. (2) The changes of water resources in different level-I water resource regions vary significantly. Annual average water resources of the Haihe River and Yellow River regions in the northern China decreased 19% and 17% respectively in the past 20 years. Water resource increased in Southern and Northwestern rivers regions, particularly in the Northwest rivers region, with the increasing amplitude by nearly 10% in the past 20 years. (3) The inter-annual variation of national water resource became larger in the past 20 years, as compared with that of the period 1961–1990. The coefficients of water resource variation increased in Northwestern and Southwestern rivers regions, while the inter-annual variation tended to decrease in the Haihe and the Yellow River regions where significant decline of water resources happened. (4) A 14-year quasi-periodicity of the national water resource variation was detected, overlapping with various periodicities of water resources of different level-I water resource regions. Remarkable uniformity exists between the first or secondary primary periodicity of water resource variation in adjacent level-I water resource regions.     

The need for international co-operation in the management of coastal environments

The coastal zones are areas of high biological productivity and intense human pressure. Environmental challenges arise from pollution and from urban and industrial development. Administrative, social and legal challenges centre upon the need for sound management of coastal zone resources, as an important component of national strategies for sustainability. A number of specific actions have been set out in Agenda 21, the principal product of the Earth Summit held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. But these need to be carried forward within cross-sectoral, integrated coastal area management procedures. International action is also needed because marine ecosystems rarely coincide with national boundaries, and are affected by international economic, social and legal decisions.

International scientific co-operation on marine issues is already well established, and many regional action plans and Conventions have been adopted. Technological co-operation is less advanced. Such efforts need to be intensified, and continuously adapted. Sound plans for the future must be based on good science, critical economic evaluation of resources, sensitive evaluation of social and cultural factors and of the needs of local communities, evaluation of the risks of climate change, sea-level rise and other changes, and monitoring as a basis for continuing adaptation.     

流域生态学与太湖流域防洪、治污及可持续发展

在评述流域生态学中的水文、湖沼、生态系统、景观、生态经济和生态管理等主要研究内容和复合生态系统、河流连续统、生态交错带、等级系统、格局－尺度－过程、信息系统等概念理论以及流域自然过程、生物功能、系统结构、生态环境、流域生态管理等流域生态学热点问题的基础上,总结分析了太湖流域防洪、治污及可持续发展与流域生态学的关系,指出流域生态学在太湖流域的流域开发、环境治理、区域可持续发展等实践方面起着越来越重要的指导作用,有必要开发深入研究。     

SPARC (Stratospheric Processes and Their Role in Climate) and Health

There has been increasing recognition of the link between human activity and natural and man-made systems. Policies and programs designed to achieve sustainable development and human health, as one of the main components for sustainability, require understanding of global environmental issues and their regional and local implications. This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Multi-objective optimization for sustainable groundwater resource management in a semiarid catchment

Abstract

Groundwater is an important water resource and its management is vital for integrated water resources development in semiarid catchments. The River Shiyang catchment in the semiarid area of northwestern China was studied to determine a sustainable multi-objective management plan of water resources. A multi-objective optimization model was developed which incorporated water supplies, groundwater quality, ecology, environment and economics on spatial and temporal scales under various detailed constraints. A calibrated groundwater flow model was supplemented by grey simulation of groundwater quality, thus providing two lines of evidence to use in the multi-objective water management. The response matrix method was used to link the groundwater simulation models and the optimization model. Multi-phase linear programming was used to minimize and compromise the objectives for the multi-period, conjunctive water use optimization model. Based on current water demands, this water use optimization management plan was able to meet ecological, environmental and economic objectives, but did not find a final solution to reduce the overall water deficit within the catchment.