守恒系统中台风强度变化及其可能因子的数值研究

用一个高分辨率的f平面正压涡度方程模式,实施了时间积分为36h的21组试验,研究相邻中尺度涡旋与台风涡旋的相互作用。结果指出:这种相互作用能否导致台风加强,取决于两类因子:一是台风涡旋最大风速的取值以及圆形基流切变的强弱;二是切变基流中的中尺度涡旋的自身条件,包括中尺度涡旋的分布、尺度、强度和结构。台风强度与初始中尺度涡旋的尺度、强度之间存在着非线性的联系。     

A STUDY ON MESOSCALE VORTICITY PROPAGATION IN A TYPHOON-LIKE VORTEX*

By using an f-plane barotropic quasi geostrophic model in the rectangular coordinates with a grid spacing of 5 km,ten experiments whose integration time is 36 hours are performed in order to study the interaction between a typhoon vortex and a mesoscale vortex whose initial center position is located at 2 r_m northwest to the typhoon center,where r_m is the radius of maximum wind of the typhoon vortex. Results show that the interaction can create a pair of smaller scale vortices or lumps,which extend from the outside region of the typhoon to near its center,resulting in the inward propagation of mesoscale vorticity.In this process,the vorticity concentration of the mesoscale vortex may appear.The coexistence of the propagation and the concentration makes the increase of vorticity in the inside region i.e.a more intensive typhoon.Meanwhile,the intensity of the lump with positive vorticity oscillates with time,with the oscillation period being several hours,the distance from the typhoon center to the lump center also has a similar oscillation period,which reduces the oscillation of typhoon intensity.In the case of stronger circular basic flow,the interaction can make the intensification of typhoon more obviously. In addition,in some parametric conditions,the interaction may break down the continuous vorticity zone,exhibiting a cluster of smaller vorticity lumps.     

台风环流区域内中尺度涡量传播特征的研究

用一个高分辨率f平面直角坐标系的正压准地转模式,实施了10组积分时间为36h的试验,研究了初始位于台风外区的一个中尺度涡旋与台风涡旋的相互作用.结果表明:这种相互作用可以激发一个从外区伸展到内区的较小尺度的涡旋对,以此方式将涡量内传至台风中心附近.同时,中尺度涡旋呈现涡量集中化的特征.涡量内传与涡量集中化共存,使内区涡量增多,导致台风增强.此外,在一定条件下,这种相互作用还可以使涡量带破碎和断裂,形成一系列空间尺度更小的涡块.     

台风最大风速增强的数值研究

用一个高分辨率的正压模式，实施了8组时间积分为36h的试验，分析了中尺度涡旋和台风涡旋的相互作用及其对台风强度变化的影响，讨论了初始中尺度涡旋空间尺度大小与台风强度变化之间的联系。结果表明：在一定的合理的参数条件下，这种相互作用可以使台风切向风速量大值增加，显示出台风增强的现象。     

Typhoon Vortex Self-Organization in a Baroclinic Environment

Self-organization of typhoon vortex in a baroclinic environment is studied based on eight numerical experiments with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research （PSU/NCAR） Mesoscale Model （MM5）. The results show that, when there are only two 400-km-away mesoscale axisymmetric vortices with a radius of 500 km in the initial field, the two vortices move away from each other during co-rotating till the distance between them greater than a critical distance named co-rotating critical distance. Then, they stop co-rotating. The situation is changed when a small vortex with a radius of 80 kin is introduced in between the two vortices in the initial field, with the two initially separated vortices approaching each other during their co-rotation, and finally self-organizing into a typhoon-like vortex consisting of an inner core and spiral bands. This result supports both Zhou Xiuji＇s view in 1994 and the studies in the barotropic framework concerning the interactions between the same and different scales of vortices. Six other experiments are carried out to study the effects of the initial vortex parameters, including the initial position of the small-scale vortex, the distance and intensity of the initially axisymmetric binary mesoscale vortices. It is found that the distance between the initial axisymmetrie mesoscale vortices is the most important parameter that influences the self-organizing process of the final typhoon-like vortex. This conclusion is similar to that obtained from barotropical model experiments.     

东移低涡动力学的初步研究

用一个正压原始方程模式实施了六组试验，研究了东移低涡的动力学。结果表明：无论是切变基流与低涡的相互作用，还是涡块与低涡的相互作用，都可引起低涡强度在短暂时段内增强，但整个积分时段内低涡强度的演变仍呈下降趋势。切变基流、低涡和多个涡块的相互作用，可以改变下降的趋势。正相对涡度切变基流中低涡和涡块的合并，是东移低涡强度得以维持和发展的一个直接的原因。     

A numerical study of multiple vortex self-organization as forced by mesoscale topography

Summary There exists a common observational phenomenon over the offshore areas of the northwest Pacific, that is, when several mesoscale vortices evolve suddenly into a larger scale typhoon-like vortex within one day, often with serious consequences. In this paper a series of numerical experiments has been designed and performed to emulate this evolution. The model is based on the Charney-Hasegawa-Mima equation, where there are around 40 initial meso-β vortices with parabolic profiles whose central positions, dimensions and intensities are all set stochastically. The self-organization process of these stochastically-distributed multiple meso-β vortices can be divided into two phases. During the first phase, a larger scale vortex similar to a typhoon-like vortex forms near the computational center through the gradual stretching and merging of adjacent meso-β vortices while there are more than 10 isolated vortices surrounding this typhoon-vortex. During the second phase, the isolated vortices are stretched and drawn into the typhoon-vortex circulation and become its spiral arms which are gradually incorporated into the inner area of the typhoon. This is then repeated as new isolated vortices are stretched and become new spiral arms until all the isolated vortices are drawn into the typhoon-vortex. The center of the self-organized typhoon-vortex rotates counterclockwise around the computational center when no topography is involved and is thus a transient vortex. When topography is present the vortex remain in the NE quadrant of the model domain, locked by the topography, and this quasi-steady vortex is thus capable of causing local disasters. Correspondence: Chongjian Liu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS), State Key Labaratory of Severe Weather, 46 Zhongguancum South Avenue, 100081 Beijing, P.R. China     

Coupling effect diagnoses of quasi-stationary mesoscale vortex in Guangxi rainstorm process of China

The mesoscale weather system which affected the Guangxi flash-flood-producing rainstorm of China in June 2008 is a quasi-stationary mesoscale vortex. Its genesis and development is closely related to the coupling effects of weather systems in different scales and different latitudes. On the one hand, the coupling of synoptic scale high- and low-level jets provides the environmental conditions for development of vortices and vertical circulations in the mesoscale vortex; On the other hand, the coupling of waves in mid-latitude westerlies and perturbations in low-latitude warm-moist flow under the influence of complex terrain makes the mesoscale vortex circulations strengthened. With the piecewise potential vorticity (PV) inversion method, PV anomalies in different regions are analyzed; also the vortex-vortex interactions and vortex-background flow interactions are diagnosed. Thus, the reasons why the mesoscale is quasi-stationary at first, while developing and deepening later are indicated. Under the condition of coupling effects, the vertical motions accompanied with the mesoscale vortex can be diagnosed with the PV-ω inversion system based on the analysis of quasi-balanced flow.     

Simulations of the motion of tropical cyclone-like vortices in the presence of synoptic and mesoscale circulations

Initial mesoscale vortex effects on the tropical cyclone(TC) motion in a system where three components coexist(i.e.,an environmental vortex(EV),a TC,and mesoscale vortices) were examined using a barotropic vorticity equation model with initial fields where mesoscale vortices were generated stochastically.Results of these simulations indicate that the deflection of the TC track derived from the initial mesoscale vortices was clearly smaller than that from the beta effect in 60% of the cases.However,they may have a more significant impact on the TC track under the following circumstances.First,the interaction between an adjacent mesoscale vortex and the TC causes the emergence of a complicated structure with two centers in the TC inner region.This configuration may last for 8 h,and the two centers undergo a cyclonic rotation to make the change in direction of the TC motion.Second,two mesoscale vortices located in the EV circulation may merge,and the merged vortex shifts into the EV inner region,intensifying both the EV and steering flow for the TC,increasing speed of the TC.     

Characteristics of mesoscale vortices over China in 2015

Mesoscale vortices, which appear at middle and lower levels of rainstorms, are cyclonic circulations with a size ranging from tens of kilometers to several hundred kilometers. Mesoscale vortices often have close relationships with convective activities. The ERA-Interim dataset and an automatic vortex-searching method were used to identify the mesoscale vortices occurring over China in 2015 and their basic characteristics were analyzed. The mesoscale vortices are divided into three categories: mesoscale convective vortices, mesoscale stratiform vortices, and mesoscale dry vortices. The mesoscale convective vortices have the largest intensity, size, and duration, whereas the mesoscale dry vortices have the smallest. Mesoscale convective vortices are able to form in any direction of the parent mesoscale convective system, although the secondary convection tends to appear to the southeast of the parent vortices. The mesoscale vortices tend to generate in the transition area between high and low altitudes. The leeward side of the Tibetan Plateau is the main source region of mesoscale vortices in China. Most of vortices are generated at midday and midnight. The activities of mesoscale convective vortices and mesoscale stratiform vortices peak in summer, whereas those of the mesoscale dry vortices peak in winter.     

影响台风移动因子的数值研究

本文采用有辐散的正压原始方程模式对影响台风涡旋移动的因子进行了数值试验,试验结果表明:(1)在无环境风条件下,台风涡旋向西北方向移动,移速与台风切向风速、台风半径和台风区f场的特征有关,台风外区(指最大风速半径以外台风区域)切向风速越大、台风半径越大,台风涡旋移速向北分量越大。(2)均一环境风场中,台风移动受基本气流的平流、β效应和指向引导气流左侧的横向加速度的作用,其中基本气流的引导作用是主要的。台风移速与引导气流速度比在东风气流中要大于西风气流中,而台风移向与基本气流之间的偏角在西风气流中要大于在东风气流中。(3)台风涡旋有沿基本气流绝对涡度梯度方向的次级运动分量。(4)台风涡旋在有切变的西风气流中比在均一西风气流中易发展加强,而它的移动更偏向引导气流的左侧。      

由大尺度观测提取中尺度信息的可能性研究

利用浅水方程模式和变分四维同化方法对由大尺度观测提取中尺度信息的可能性进行了模拟试验研究。试验的初始场是在平直气流上叠加一个半径为 5倍格距的圆形涡旋。分别设定观测点的间距是 5 ,7和 9倍格距 ,观测的时间间隔分别是 1,2和 3h ,同化时间为 6h或 12h ,考察同化产生的初始场。试验结果是 :观测点的间距是 5倍格距时 ,由观测给出的分析场不能反映涡旋的基本特征 ,而在同化产生的初始场中 ,涡旋的基本结构清楚 ,但强度有所削弱。增加观测次数或者延长同化时间 ,可以改善同化的结果。对于移动较快的系统 ,同化的结果较好。当观测点的间距是 9倍格距时 ,同化的结果与分析场相比已无明显改进。     

长江下游梅汛期中尺度涡旋特征分析

利用2006～2009 年日本再分析资料对长江下游地区梅汛期间(5～7 月)边界层内中尺度涡旋进行普查,并分类统计分析了边界层内中尺度涡旋与暴雨、低空急流的关系。研究结果表明:每年的5～7 月该地区经常在对流层低层或(和)边界层内出现中尺度扰动涡旋,根据中尺度涡旋最初生成的高度不同,可划分为边界层中尺度涡旋、对流层低层中尺度涡旋和对流层低层—边界层中尺度涡旋三类。边界层中尺度涡旋中与暴雨有密切关系的中尺度涡旋称为边界层中尺度扰动涡旋(PMDV),根据涡旋前或后6 小时累积雨量,可以进一步将其分成两类:第一类是暴雨的直接制造者中尺度对流系统(MCS)先于边界层中尺度扰动涡旋发生(MCS-PMDV);第二类是边界层中尺度涡旋产生后,激发了中尺度对流,造成了暴雨过程(PMDV-MCS)。PMDV-MCS 类涡旋暴雨的特点是在对流层低层850 hPa 是一条切变线,其南侧有一支西南低空急流,边界层925 hPa 则是一个闭合的涡旋,暴雨区主要落在涡旋的东北面和东南面。     

地面感热对青藏高原低涡流场结构及发展的作用

考虑热带气旋类青藏高原低涡为受加热和摩擦强迫并满足热成风平衡的轴对称涡旋系统,通过求解线性化的柱坐标系中涡旋模式的初值问题,分析了地面感热对高原低涡流场结构及发展的影响,给出了高原低涡眼壁内、外侧水平流场和垂直流场的结构特征,讨论了低涡发展与其水平尺度、垂直厚度、所处纬度以及热量总体输送系数和加热强度的关系.结果表明:地面感热对低涡的生成及发展具有重要作用,但这种作用是否有利于低涡的发展与低涡中心和感热加热中心的配置有关.     

热带气旋强度与结构研究新进展

主要回顾热带气旋(TC)强度与结构变化的研究发展近况。以往热带气旋的理论研究认为在给定的大气和海洋热状况下,存在着一个TC所能达到的最大可能强度(MPI)。但实际上,海洋生成的热带气旋达到的最大强度普遍要比由MPI理论计算得到最大强度要低。近几年的研究表明,存在着内部和外部的不利因子通过对TC结构的改变来阻碍其加强,从而限制TC的强度。以往认为在诸多因子中,垂直风切变产生的内核区非对称结构与眼墙区下方海水上涌造成的海面冷却是制约TC达到MPI的主要因子。最新的研究进一步指出,产生TC非对称性的中尺度过程对其强度与结构的变化至关重要。中尺度过程包含有对流耦合的涡旋Rossby波、内外圈螺旋雨带、嵌于TC环流内的中尺度涡旋。外部的环境气流也是通过这些眼墙的中尺度过程影响到TC的强度与结构变化。     

涡列涡量内传的数值研究

用一个高分辨率的准地转正压模式实施了4组积分时间为24h的试验,研究台风环流区域中尺度涡列对台风强度的影响,并与单个中尺度涡旋的情况作了对比。结果表明:涡列内传过程中出现了两次涡合并现象,涡列涡量内传对台风强度的影响能力较弱,单个中尺度涡旋涡量内传可使台风增强。     

A study of the effect of topography on the merging of vortices

Eight sets of numerical experiments are performed in 48 hours of integtation by using a barotropic primitive equation model with a topographic term so as to investigate the effect of topography on the merging of vortices. It is pointed out that the introduction of topography may change the track of vortices,and it causes the low vortices and vorticity lumps to be detained on the southeast side of the topography,thus creating a favorable condition for the merging of the low vortex and vorticity lumps. It is also shown that the effect of topography may cause double mergers of vortices in a horizontally shearing basic flow,and it can strengthen the low vortex remarkably.     

Influence of Vertical Shear of Basic Tangential Wind on the Development and Maintenance of Typhoon

By using a linear symmetric Conditional Instability of Second Kind (CISK) model containing basic flow, we study the interactions between basic flow and mesoscale disturbances in typhoon. The result shows that in the early stage of typhoon formation, the combined action of vertical shear of basic flow at low level and CISK impels the disturbances to grow rapidly and to move toward the center of typhoon. The development of disturbances, likewise, influences on typhoon’s development and structure. Analysis of the mesoscale disturbances’ development and propagation indicates that the maximum wind region moves toward the center, wind velocity increases, and circulation features of an eye appear. Similarly, when a typhoon decays, the increase of low-level vertical wind shear facilitates the development of mesoscale disturbances. In turn, these mesoscale disturbances will provide typhoon with energy and make the typhoon intensify again. Therefore, it can be said that typhoon has the renewable or self-repair function.     

人工智能新技术在国家气象中心台风业务中的应用探索

基于2005—2020年的中国气象局台风最佳路径数据集以及葵花（Himawari-8）和风云（FY-4）卫星云图数据,结合人工智能新技术,将深度学习模型应用于台风涡旋识别、台风定位定强、台风强度突变预测等方面,具体内容主要包括基于深度图像目标检测的台风涡旋识别模型、基于图像分类和检索的台风智能定强模型以及融合时空序列特征的台风快速增强判别模型,构建了一套台风智能监测和预报系统。通过对2020年全年样本进行了测试,结果显示：该系统对强热带风暴级及以上强度的台风涡旋正确识别率达90%以上,台风强度估测的MAE和RMSE分别为3.8 m/s和5.05 m/s,对全年独立样本强度快速加强预测的综合准确率达到65.3%,该系统实现了业务上利用高时空分辨率卫星图像实时对热带气旋进行自动识别、定位定强和智能追踪的功能,为进一步提高我国台风监测和预报预警的能力提供了有利支撑。     

一种新的梅雨锋上中尺度涡旋识别方法

中尺度涡旋的发生、发展对梅雨锋暴雨常具有直接作用,客观准确地识别中尺度涡旋有助于提高暴雨预报的准确性。本研究提出一种从格点风场中自动识别中尺度涡旋中心的客观方法。利用美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)提供的全球模式分析资料,选取2013—2014年梅雨期间两次暴雨个例,考察新方法识别中尺度涡旋的能力,并与现有的两种识别方法(分别基于相对涡度场与基于高度场)进行比较分析。结果表明,由于较小尺度的系统不遵守地转风规则,梅雨锋上许多涡旋的风场环流中心、涡度中心与低压中心位置不重合,影响通过涡度识别或气压识别方法的准确性。新方法从风场出发,可准确识别出大多数涡旋中心,误判率低,定位精度高于无人工辅助下的另外两种方法。接着利用新方法分析了两次暴雨个例中不同中尺度涡旋的垂直结构与时间演变。分析表明,新方法无需人工辅助,无特定层高和时间限制,可在短时间内识别出区域内所有中尺度涡旋的位置、三维结构与时间演变,可用于梅雨期间静止锋上中尺度涡旋的识别和路径的追踪,有助于预报员实时分析与预报暴雨。