The effect of the 11-year solar cycle on the temperature in the lower stratosphere

Two temperature datasets are analyzed for quantifying the 11-year solar cycle effect in the lower stratosphere. The analysis is based on a regression linear model that takes into account volcanic, Arctic Oscillation (AO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects. Under solar maximum conditions, temperatures are generally warmer for low- and mid-latitudes than under solar minimum, with the effect being the strongest in northern summer. At high latitudes, the vortex is generally stronger under solar maximum conditions, with the exception of February and to a lesser extent March in the Northern Hemisphere; associated with this positive signal at high latitudes, there is a significant negative signal at the equator. Observations also suggest that contrary to the beginning of the winter, in February–March, the residual circulation in the Northern Hemisphere is enhanced. A better understanding of the mechanisms at work comes from further investigations using the ERA-40 reanalysis dataset. First, a consistent response in terms of temperature and wind is obtained. Moreover, considering Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux divergence and residual circulation stream functions, we found an increased circulation in the Northern Hemisphere in February during solar maxima, which results in more adiabatic warming at high latitudes and more adiabatic cooling at low latitudes, thus demonstrating the dynamical origin of the response of the low stratosphere to the solar cycle.     

The signal of the 11-year solar cycle in the global stratosphere

The search for a signal of the 11-year sunspot cycle in the heights and temperatures of the lower stratosphere was previously successfully conducted for the northern hemisphere with a data set from the Freie Universität Berlin, covering four solar cycles. This work has been extended to the whole globe by means of the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses for the period 1968–1996. The re-analyses show that the signal exists in the southern hemisphere too, and that it is of nearly the same size and shape as on the northern hemisphere. The NCEP/NCAR reanalyses yield higher correlations with the solar cycle than do the Berlin analyses for the same period, because the interannual variability is lower in the NCEP/NCAR data.The correlations between the solar cycle and the zonally averaged temperatures at the standard levels between 200 and 10 hPa are largest between the tropopause and the 25 km level, that is, in the ozone layer. This may be partly a direct effect in this layer, because of more absorber (ozone) and more ultraviolet radiation from the sun in the peaks of the 11-year solar cycle. However, it is more likely to be mainly an indirect dynamical consequence of UV absorption by ozone in the middle and upper stratosphere.The largest temperature correlations move with the sun from one summer hemisphere to the other, and the largest height correlations move poleward from winter to summer.     

Certain regularities of solar activity variations during the 11-year cycle

The relationships between a number of the main characteristic parameters of the cycle—amplitude, half-width, and growth phase duration—and the approximation parameters, which make it possible to estimate the average behavior of 11-year activity, have been derived based on the obtained analytical representations of the regularities in the solar activity variations during the cycle. Quasibiennial variations proceeding against a background of the cycle are distinctly associated with the solar magnetic field structure and the structure representation variations in the corona and in the flux of the solar neutrino radiation. This makes it possible to state that all these processes are parts of the common physical mechanism of solar variability.     

Relationship between phases of quasi-decadal oscillations of total ozone and the 11-year solar cycle

Temporal variability of the relationship between the phases of quasi-decadal oscillations (QDOs) of total ozone (TO), measured at the Arosa station, and the Ri international sunspot number have been analyzed for the period of 1932–2009. Before the 1970s, the maximum phase of ozone QDOs lagged behind solar activity variations by about 2.5–2.8 years and later outstripped by about 1.5 years. We assumed that the TO QDOs in midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere were close to being in resonance with solar activity oscillations in the period from the mid-1960s to the mid-1970s and assessed the characteristic delay period of TO QDOs. The global distribution of phases and amplitudes of TO QDOs have been studied for the period from 1979 to 2008 based on satellite data. The maximum phase of TO QDOs first onsets in northern middle and high latitudes and coincides with the end of the growth phase of the 11-year solar cycle. In the tropics, the maximum oscillation phase lags behind by 0.5–1 year. The maximum phase lag near 40–50° S is about two years. The latitudinal variations of the phase of TO QDOs have been approximated.     

太阳活动11年周期对气象参数影响

利用多种资料研究了太阳活动11年周期对全球气温、风场、海表温度(SST)的影响,结果表明:(1)在第21、22太阳活动周,中低纬对流层顶以上大气温度变化具有类似太阳黑子变化的11年左右周期,相对于太阳黑子数,气温变化具有1～2年的延迟性;相对于太阳活动低年,200～10 hPa大气在太阳活动高年整层增温,以赤道低纬地区...     

Microwave measurements of the ozone content in winter arctic stratosphere

As a result of the long-term observations lead in region of Kola Peninsula, connection between character of variations of the ozone content in a stratosphere of Arctic regions and behavior and structure of a winter polar vortex is established. During winter seasons with well developed cyclone and duration of stable existence not less than 1.5–2 months were observed extremely low ozone number density at heights 20–25 km connected, apparently, with its chemical destruction. On the other hand, during disturbances of the vortex, accompanied strong stratospheric warming, was registered almost double increase of ozone amount in a high-altitude interval from 20 up to 40 km. Comparison of results of ground-based microwave monitoring of an ozone layer to data of the satellite instrument EOS MLS installed on satellite AURA is lead. In most cases comparison has shown satisfactory within the limits of an error of measurements coincidence of results. However in conditions of atmospheric disturbances when arose significant spatial heterogeneity, the discrepancy of results of comparison was marked. The possible reasons which cause the detected disagreement in results are discussed.     

The 11-year solar cycle, the Sun's rotation, and the middle stratosphere in winter. Part II: Response of planetary waves

The effect of the 11-year solar cycle on the response of planetary wavenumbers 1 and 2 at 10 and 30 hPa in winter to solar activity oscillations on the time scale of the Sun's rotation (27.2 day) is discussed in terms of statistical spectral analysis. The three oscillations studied are the 27.2 d (period of the Sun's rotation), 25.3 d (periodicity caused by modulation of the 27.2 d stratospheric response by annual atmospheric variation), and 54.4 d (doubled period of the solar rotation). A significant effect of the 11-year solar cycle is found for the 54.4 d periodicity in planetary wavenumber 1, and for the 27.2 and 25.3 d periodicities in planetary wavenumber 2. The effect of the 11-year solar cycle is expressed in the evident differences between the amplitudes of responses of planetary waves at maximum and minimum of the solar cycle: the amplitudes are much larger at high than at low solar activity. The 11-year modulation of planetary wave activity is most pronounced at mid-latitudes, mainly at 40–60°N, where the observed variability of planetary waves is large. The results obtained are in good agreement with results of the recent modeling study by Shindell et al. (Science 284 (1999) 305).     

The 11-year solar cycle affects the intensity and annularity of the Arctic Oscillation

We investigate the dependence of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in winter on the solar activity by stratifying the data into overlapping intervals defined by percentiles of the 10.7 cm radio flux. The AO exhibits a complex dependence of its polarity, being weakest under low, but not minimum, solar activity, while strongest in solar maxima. The AO is more/less variable (i.e., more/less active) under a high/low solar activity. Under a moderate solar activity, its Pacific centre weakens and eventually disappears. These effects seem to be real in spite of a potential for mixing the AO with the second principal component due to sampling errors caused by insufficient spacing between the first two eigenvalues. The weakening of the Pacific centre is not a result of coincidence with major volcanic eruptions or specific phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.     

太阳绕太阳系质心运动22年周期及其与太阳活动的联系

对于太阳活动22年周期的成因机制长期存在着争论.本文借助于行星会合指数以及开普勒第三定律,对太阳绕太阳系质心运动周期进行了分析计算.结果发现,太阳绕太阳系质心运动存在22.1826年显著周期,这与太阳磁场变化的22.20年周期相吻合.并从太阳系角动量守恒的角度解释了两者之间的成因联系:在太阳绕太阳系质心运动的准22年周期中,太阳系质心与太阳质心逐步接近而后逐步分离.当两个质心之间的距离接近零的时候,太阳轨道角动量与自转角动量叠加,会导致太阳自转角速度的加快;当两个质心之间的距离逐渐远离的时候,则导致太阳自转角速度的减慢.这可能是引发太阳活动和太阳磁场变化的原因.这一新认识为太阳活动准22年周期成因机制的解释提供了新的线索和依据.     

Hysteresis of indices of solar and ionospheric activity during 11-year cycles

The effects of hysteresis, which is a manifestation of ambiguous relationships between different solar activity indices during the rising and declining phases of solar cycles, are analyzed. The paper addresses the indices characterizing radiation from the solar photosphere, chromosphere, and corona, and the ionospheric indices. The 21st, 22nd, and 23rd solar cycles, which significantly differ from each other in amplitude, exhibit different extents of hysteresis.     

Temperature and ozone variations in the stratosphere

Examined are temperature and ozone variations in the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere during the period 1958–77, as estimated from radiosondes rocketsondes, ozonesondes, and Umkehr measurements. The temperature variation in the low tropical stratosphere is a combination of the variation associated with the quasi-biennial oscillation, and a variation nearly out of phase with the pronounced 3-yearly temperature oscillation (Southern Oscillation) present in the tropical troposphere since 1963. Based on radiosonde and rocketsonde data, the quasibiennial temperature oscillation can be traced as high as the stratopause, the phase varying with both height and latitude. However, the rocketsonde-derived temperature decrease of several degrees Celsius in the 25–55 km layer of the Western Hemisphere between 1969 (sunspot maximum) and 1976 (sunspot minimum) is not apparent in high-level radiosonde data, so that caution is advised with respect to a possible solar-terrestrial relation.There has been a strong quasi-biennial oscillation in ozone in the 8–16 km layer of the north polar region, with ozone minimum near the time of quasi-biennial west wind maximum at a height of 20 km in the tropics. A quasi-biennial oscillation in ozone (of similar phase) is also apparent from both ozonesonde data and Umkehr measurements in 8–16 and 16–24 km layers of north temperate latitudes, but not higher up. Both measurement techniques also suggest a slight overall ozone decrease in the same layers between 1969 and 1976, but no overall ozone change in the 24–32 km layer. Umkehr measurements indicate a significant 6–8% increase in ozone amount in all stratospheric layers between 1964 and 1970, and in 1977 the ozone amount in the 32–46 km layer was still 4% above average despite the predicted depletion due to fluorocarbon emissions. The decrease in ozone in the 32–46 km, layer of mid latitudes following the volcanic eruptions of Agung and Fuego is believed to be mostly fictitious and due to the bias introduced into the Umkehr technique by stratospheric aerosols of volcanic origin. Above-average water vapor amounts in the low stratosphere at Washington, DC, appear closely related to warm tropospheric temperatures in the tropics, presumably reflecting variations in strength of the Hadley circulation.     

The influence of solar activity on the stratospheric ozone layer

Pure and Applied Geophysics -     

Nonlinear behavior on an ozone photochemical system in the stratosphere

A nonlinear box system describing ozone photochemistry in the stratosphere is presented. Influences of pollutants, such as odd chlorine (Cl_x) and odd nitrogen (NO_x) discharged by human activities, on photochemical states of the system are investigated in detail. The results show that the solutions of the box system constitute a ‘cusp’ catastrophe manifold in the state-parameter space. An increase of about 30% for Cl_x source strength or a decrease of about 30% for NO_x source strength from their current level may lead to catastrophic transition and results in a reduction of ozone concentration about 50 times. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and Laboratory for Aeronomy and Global Environmental Observation of IAP.     

Influence of short-term changes in solar activity on baric field perturbations in the stratosphere and troposphere

Influence of short-term changes in solar activity on baric (pressure) field perturbations is studied using such characteristics as the Sazonov index (IS), describing the intensity of meridional transfer, the Blinova index (IB), describing the intensity of zonal transfer, and ‘vorticity area index’ (VAI) describing the tropospheric cyclonic perturbations. The epoch superposition method is used to reveal effects of the solar central meridian (CM) passage of active regions, the Forbush decreases (FD) in galactic cosmic rays, and the solar proton (SP) events. The results of the analysis show that influence of short-term changes in the solar activity on baric field perturbations is the most evident in the stratosphere (30 mbar-level). The meridional circulation in case of the FD and SP events begin to increase about 5–7 days before the key date, reaches maximum nearby the key date and decays after the key date. The meridional circulation in case of the solar CM passage of active regions starts to increase after the key date and reaches the maximum by 5–6 days. Fluctuations of baric field within periods of 5–7 days typical of meridional and zonal transfers in troposphere (500 mbar-level) are evidently connected with internal dynamics of the atmosphere, not with the effects of solar activity. VAI characterizing cyclonic activity in the troposphere, shows the striking correspondence to changes of the meridional circulation in the stratosphere. Comparison of changes in the stratospheric perturbations with behavior of the UV irradiance in course of the FD and SP events show their full correspondence at the initial stage of these processes. The conclusion is made that growth of baric perturbations observed in the stratosphere in associations with the FD and SP events before the key date is caused by the solar UV irradiance increase, whereas decay of the baric perturbations after the key date is related to direct influence of the solar energetic corpuscular fluxes on the stratosphere.     

The connection between characteristic values of the 11-year cycles of solar and of geomagnetic activity

Summary Using the annual values of the indices of solar and geomagnetic activity for the period 1868–1976, the basic values characterizing the cycle as a whole were determined for the 11-year cycles nos 11–20, (Tab. 1). High values of the coefficients of correlation were found for some pairs of characteristic values of the same and different kinds, given in Tab. 2, which can be utilized for long-term predictions of geomagnetic activity.

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a auu¶rt;u au u¶rt; uaum amumu muu 1868–1976 n¶rt; ¶rt; 11-mu u 11–20 naam aamuu u a (a. 1). u au uuma uu ¶rt; m na naam ¶rt;ua u ¶rt;ua ¶rt;a (a. 2), m m amu nuu nu ¶rt; nuauuaum amumu.

     

高空大气涛动现象与太阳活动的联系

本文根据全球高空10 hPa位势高度距平场EOF分析得知,存在于地面层大气中的南北向涛动现象~北极高空大气涛动和南极涛动,在高空大气中更为清楚,而且这种高空南北向涛动现象是波及全球的;存在于地面层大气中著名的纬向涛动现象~南方涛动(Southern Oscillation,SO)和北方涛动(North Oscillation,NO),在高空大气中则变得不甚清楚.表征北极高空大气涛动的第一模态与表征南极涛动的第二模态的方差贡献率分别为41.47%和27.04%,二者累积方差贡献率达到68.51%,构成了平流层高空大气年代际振荡的主要形式;另外还存在两半球对称性中高纬度南极涛动模态和两半球不对称性中高纬度南极涛动模态,是高空大气中出现概率比较小的振荡形式.谱分析表明,无论北极高空大气涛动模态、南极涛动模态还是中高纬度纬向涛动模态,都存在与太阳磁场磁性指数相一致的22年准周期变化以及与太阳黑子相对数相一致的11年准周期变化;采用逐次滤波法的滤波分析和对比分析表明,高空大气涛动现象的重要影响因子乃太阳活动,其中太阳磁场的大幅度涨落及其磁性变化是主要因素,太阳黑子相对数的变化为次要因素.