Investigation on regional attenuation of Vrancea (Romania) intermediate-depth earthquakes

This paper aims at investigating possible regional attenuation patterns in the case of Vrancea(Romania) intermediate-depth earthquakes.Almost 500 pairs of horizontal components recorded during 13 intermediate-depth Vrancea earthquakes are employed in order to evaluate the regional attenuation patterns.The recordings are grouped according to the azimuth with regard to the Vrancea seismic source and subsequently,Q models are computed for each azimuthal zone assuming similar geometrical spreading.Moreover,the local soil amplification which was disregarded in a previous analysis performed for Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes is now clearly evaluated.The results show minor differences between the four regions situated in front of the Carpathian Mountains and considerable differences in attenuation of seismic waves between the forearc and backarc regions(with regard to the Carpathian Mountains).Consequently,an average Q model of the type Q(f) = 115×f~(1.25) is obtained for the four forearc regions,while a separate Q model of the type Q(f) = 70×f~(0.90) is computed for the backarc region.These results highlight the need to evaluate the seismic hazard of Romania by using ground motion models which take into account the different attenuation between the forearc/backarc regions.     

Test of the Empirical Green's Function Deconvolution on Vrancea (Romania) Subcrustal Earthquakes

Vrancea is one of the few singular seismic regions of the world where intermediate-depth earthquakes are permanently generated (around 10 events/month with M _L > 3) within an extremely confined focal volume. This particularity and the relatively large number of short-period waveforms recorded by the Romanian local network provides us the opportunity to test the performance of the empirical Green's function technique in retrieving the source time function and source directivity of the Vrancea earthquakes. Three earthquakes that occurred on March 11, 1983 (M _L = 5.4), April 12, 1983 (M _L = 5.1) and August 7, 1984 (M _L = 5.1) in the lower part of the subducting lithosphere (h 150 km) were analyzed. A set of 28 adjacent events (3.0 < M _L < 4.4) which occurred between 1981 and 1997 were selected as corresponding empirical Green's functions. To test the confidence of the retrieved source time function, we compare the deconvolved pulses using Green's functions of different sizes and recorded simultaneously by short-period and broad-band instruments. Our tests show that the durations of the source time function is well-constrained and is not affected by the limited frequency range of the short-period instruments, or by the relative difference in the focal mechanism between the main event and Green's event. The apparent duration of the source time function outlines source directivity effects, and when these effects are sufficiently strong, they can identify the real fault plane. Relatively short source duration and correspondingly high stress drop values are in agreement with other previous results emphasizing a specific seismic regime in the lower part of the Vrancea subducting lithosphere.     

Geological, geophysical and seismological criteria for local response evaluation in Bucharest urban area

Vrancea major intermediate-depth earthquakes produced extreme damage in Bucharest city, located at about 165 km epicenter distance. Our purpose is to investigate the influence of local geological conditions upon the seismic motion in Bucharest in case of large (M>7) Vrancea earthquakes. Two input data sets are used: (a) geological, geotechnical and geophysical information, including in situ measurements, and (b) acceleration recordings of Vrancea earthquakes. Local response evaluation based on first dataset is confirmed by the spectral analysis of the earthquake records. Two main features are outlined: non-stationarity of ground motion dynamic amplification from one event to other and inadequacy of limiting the investigation depth to uppermost 30 m to evaluate ground dynamic characteristics. Consequently (1) we cannot extrapolate the ground motion response determined for moderate and small earthquakes to anticipate the effects of the large Vrancea shocks and (2) the local response is controlled by the entire package of Quaternary deposits which are significantly deeper than 30 m depth beneath Bucharest Area.     

On the selection of GMPEs for Vrancea subcrustal seismic source

The Vrancea subcrustal seismic source is characterized by large magnitude ( $M_{W} \ge 7$ ) intermediate-depth earthquakes that occur two or three times during a century on average. In this study several procedures are used to grade four candidate ground motion prediction equations proposed for Vrancea source in the SHARE project. In the work of Delavaud et al. (J Seismol 16(3):451–473, 2012) four ground motion prediction models developed for subduction zones (Zhao et al. in Bull Seism Soc Am 96(3):898–913, 2006; Atkinson and Boore in Bull Seism Soc Am 93(4):1703–1729, 2003; Youngs et al. in Seism Res Lett 68(1):58–73, 1997; Lin and Lee in Bull Seism Soc Am 98(1):220–240, 2008) are suggested as suitable for Vrancea subcrustal seismic source. The paper presents the appropriateness analysis of the four suggested ground motion prediction equations done using a dataset of 109 triaxial accelerograms recorded during seven Vrancea seismic events with moment magnitude $M_{W}$ between 5.4 and 7.4, occurred in the past 35 years. The strong ground motions were recorded in Romania, as well as in Bulgaria, Republic of Moldova and Serbia. Based on the ground motion dataset several goodness-of-fit measures are used in order to quantify how well the selected models match with the recorded data. The compatibility of the four ground motion prediction models with respect to magnitude scaling and distance scaling implied by strong ground motion dataset is investigated as well. The analyses show that the Youngs et al. (Seism Res Lett 68(1):58–73, 1997) and Zhao et al. (Bull Seism Soc Am 96(3):898–913, 2006) ground motion prediction models have a better fit with the data and can be candidate models for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment.     

Advanced real-time acquisition of the Vrancea earthquake early warning system

The Vrancea seismogenic zone in Romania represents a peculiar source of seismic hazard, which is a major concern in Europe, especially to neighboring regions of Bulgaria, Serbia and Republic of Moldavia. Earthquakes in the Carpathian–Pannonian region are confined to the crust, except the Vrancea zone, where earthquakes with focal depth down to 200 km occur. One of the cities most affected by earthquakes in Europe is Bucharest. Situated at 140–170 km distance from Vrancea epicenter zone, Bucharest encountered many damages due to high energy Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes; the March 4, 1977 event (M_w=7.2) produced the collapse of 36 buildings with 8–12 levels, while more than 150 old buildings were seriously damaged. A dedicated set of applications and a method to rapidly estimate magnitude in 4–5 s from detection of P wave in the epicenter were developed. They were tested on all recorded data. The magnitude error for 77.9% of total considered events is in the interval [−0.3, +0.3] magnitude units. This is acceptable taking into account that the magnitude is computed from only 3 stations in a 5 s time interval (1 s delay is caused by data packing). The ability to rapidly estimate the earthquake magnitude combined with powerful real-time software, as parts of an early warning system, allows us to send earthquake warning to Bucharest in real time, in about 5 s after detection in the epicenter. This allows 20–27 s warning time to automatically issue preventive actions at the warned facility.     

Seismic Sources on the Iberia-African Plate Boundary and their Tectonic Implications

—The plate boundary between Iberia and Africa has been studied using data on seismicity and focal mechanisms. The region has been divided into three areas: A; the Gulf of Cadiz; B, the Betics, Alboran Sea and northern Morocco; and C, Algeria. Seismicity shows a complex behavior, large shallow earthquakes (h < 30 km) occur in areas A and C and moderate shocks in area B; intermediate-depth activity (30 < h < 150 km) is located in area B; the depth earthquakes (h 650 km) are located to the south of Granada. Moment rate, slip velocity and b values have been estimated for shallow shocks, and show similar characteristics for the Gulf of Cadiz and Algeria, and quite different ones for the central region. Focal mechanisms of 80 selected shallow earthquakes (8 m_b 4) show thrust faulting in the Gulf of Cadiz and Algeria with horizontal NNW-SSE compression, and normal faulting in the Alboran Sea with E-W extension. Focal mechanisms of 26 intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Alboran Sea display vertical motions, with a predominant plane trending E-W. Solutions for very deep shocks correspond to vertical dip-slip along N-S trends. Frohlich diagrams and seismic moment tensors show different behavior in the Gulf of Cadiz, Betic-Alboran Sea and northern Morocco, and northern Algeria for shallow events. The stress pattern of intermediate-depth and very deep earthquakes has different directions: vertical extension in the NW-SE direction for intermediate depth earthquakes, and tension and pressure axes dipping about 45 ° for very deep earthquakes. Regional stress pattern may result from the collision between the African plate and Iberia, with extension and subduction of lithospheric material in the Alboran Sea at intermediate depth. The very deep seismicity may be correlated with older subduction processes.     

Historical intermediate-depth earthquakes in the southern Aegean Sea Benioff zone: modeling their anomalous macroseismic patterns with stochastic ground-motion simulations

We model the macroseismic damage distribution of four important intermediate-depth earthquakes of the southern Aegean Sea subduction zone, namely the destructive 1926 M?=?7.7 Rhodes and 1935 M?=?6.9 Crete earthquakes, the unique 1956 M?=?6.9 Amorgos aftershock (recently proposed to be triggered by a shallow event), and the more recent 2002 M?=?5.9 Milos earthquake, which all exhibit spatially anomalous macroseismic patterns. Macroseismic data for these events are collected from published macroseismic databases and compared with the spatial distribution of seismic motions obtained from stochastic simulation, converted to macroseismic intensity (Modified Mercalli scale, I_MM). For this conversion, we present an updated correlation between macroseismic intensities and peak measures of seismic motions (PGA and PGV) for the intermediate-depth earthquakes of the southern Aegean Sea. Input model parameters for the simulations, such as fault dimensions, stress parameters, and attenuation parameters (e.g. back-arc/along anelastic attenuation) are adopted from previous work performed in the area. Site-effects on the observed seismic motions are approximated using generic transfer functions proposed for the broader Aegean Sea area on the basis of V_S30 values from topographic slope proxies. The results are in very good agreement with the observed anomalous damage patterns, for which the largest intensities are often observed at distances >?100 km from the earthquake epicenters. We also consider two additional “prediction” but realistic intermediate-depth earthquake scenarios, and model their macroseismic distributions, to assess their expected damage impact in the broader southern Aegean area. The results suggest that intermediate-depth events, especially north of central Crete, have a prominent effect on a wide area of the outer Hellenic arc, with a very important impact on modern urban centers along northern Crete coasts (e.g. city of Heraklion), in excellent agreement with the available historical information.     

Prediction of strong earthquakes in Vrancea,Romania, using the CN algorithm

The application of the CN algorithm to a new earthquake catalogue, for the period from 1932 to 1993, obtained by merging Romanian and U.S.S.R. data, allows us to monitor, on the intermediate time scale. the preparation of strong, intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Vrancea region. Four of the five strong earthquakes with magnitudes above 6.4 are predicted. The total duration of the Time of Increased Probability (TIP) of the occurrence of an earthquake (TIP) occupies 21.7% of the time interval under consideration, i.e., about 2.5 years for each strong earthquake.     

Effect of an earthquake occurrence on the flow intensity of the subsequent events

Aftershocks or swarms indicate increase of the flow intensity in the vicinity of the initial earthquakes. By normalizing their number according to the dynamic range of the standard frequency magnitude distribution the increase or positive aftereffect property of the initial earthquakes can be compared for different magnitude intervals, periods of time or regions. After applying accurate formal algorithm of aftershock identification it is possible to study negative aftereffect of the main events (nonaftershocks) in the catalog.Negative aftereffect means decrease of the probability of successive events in a time-space vicinity of the main event, when the aftershocks are over. The negative effect is the most important part of the seismic cycle and seismic gaps approach. Global statistical test give high confidence level for the relative decrease in intensity of the flow of the events withM7 in the first 20–25 years after the events withM8 in their 1^o-vicinities in the total time period under study of approximately 60 years. The decrease approximates 32% of the undisturbed intensity of the flow ofM>7 events in the vicinities.Self-similar negative aftereffect was observed 3–7 years after 6M<7 events, it totals approximately 18% of the undisturbed intensity. Another type of self-similarity of seismic regime, with respect to the negative aftereffect, is the decrease of probabilities of aftershocks with large magnitudes in aftershock sequences. When we have adequate dynamic range in the catalog for the study of this property, for example, for main events withM7 in the catalog with low cut-off limitM=4, the statistical significance of the negative aftereffect is clear. However, the absolute value of the effect is also rather small, about 10%, which means that in 90% of the cases the aftershock sequences do not experience lack of energy due to the main shock energy release and follow a standard magnitude distribution for earthquakes in the entire catalog.The small values of the negative aftereffect apparently indicate partial stress relase by earthquakes and may explain short recurrence time intervals after major earthquakes observed periodically in different places.     

Geomagnetic disturbances and earthquakes in the Vrancea zone

Based on the example of the Vrancea zone of concentrated seismicity, it is shown how the stress-strain state of the medium responds to a disturbance of the geomagnetic field. Geomagnetic conditions are examined in relation to earthquakes in the Vrancea zone in the period 1988–1996. It is established that the seismic energy release in the Vrancea zone is associated with differences (“gradients”) in the H component of the geomagnetic field. Such a gradient preceding earthquakes is shown to be the midnight polar substorm and the degree of its mid-latitude effect. The time interval from the maximum of the substorm development to a shock (τ, h) is directly related to the focal depth. The seismic characteristics K _en and h (km) are demonstrated to be related to morphological features of the substorm development, namely, its duration T (min), intensity, and background. Differences in the duration of polar substorms before crustal (shallow) and deep earthquakes are revealed. Morphological features of the spectrum of geomagnetic variations preceding the seismic energy release are established.     

Assessment of Creep Events as Potential Earthquake Precursors: Application to the Creeping Section of the San Andreas Fault, California

—We report the analysis of over 16 years of fault creep and seismicity data from part of the creeping section of the San Andreas fault to examine and assess the temporal association between creep events and subsequent earthquakes. The goal is to make a long-term evaluation of creep events as a potential earthquake precursor. We constructed a catalog of creep events from available digital creepmeter data and compared it to a declustered seismicity catalog for the area between San Juan Bautista and San Benito, California, for 1980 to 1996. For magnitude thresholds of 3.8 and above and time windows of 5 to 10 days, we find relatively high success rates (40% to 55% 'hits') but also very high false alarm rates (generally above 90%). These success rates are statistically significant (0.0007 < P < 0.04). We also tested the actual creep event catalog against two different types of synthetic seismicity catalogs, and found that creep events are followed closely in time by earthquakes from the real catalog far more frequently than the average for the synthetic catalogs, generally by more than two standard deviations. We find no identifiable spatial pattern between the creep events and earthquakes that are hit or missed. We conclude that there is a significant temporal correlation between creep events and subsequent small to moderate earthquakes, however that additional information (such as from other potential precursory phenomena) is required to reduce the false alarm rate to an acceptable level.     

Prediction of the strong earthquakes in Vrancea,Romania, using the CN algorithm

The application of the CN algorithm to a new earthquake catalogue, for the period from 1932 to 1993, obtained by merging Romanian and U.S.S.R. data, allows us to monitor, on the intermediate time scale, the preparation of strong, intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Vrancea region. Four of the five strong earthquakes with a magnitude above 6.4 are predicted, the total duration of the Time of Increased Probability of the occurrence of an earthquake (TIP) occupies 21.7% of the time interval under consideration, i.e., about 2.5 years for each strong earthquake.     

Multifractal characteristics of spatiotemporal distribution of earthquakes in intraplate and interplate regions

Introduction For a long time, the seismologists have paid great attentions to the research on the spatio- temporal distribution of earthquake intensity, which provide us with significant information for the researches on crustal stress variation, tectonic activity and earthquake risk prediction in a certain spatio-temporal region. The existing results have shown consistently that the intensity of earth- quakes is characterized by non-stability, non-linearity in temporal domain and non-uniformi…     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Romania and sensitivity analysis: A case of joint consideration of intermediate-depth (Vrancea) and shallow (crustal) seismicity

The earthquake risk on Romania is one of the highest in Europe, and seismic hazard for almost half of the territory of Romania is determined by the Vrancea seismic region, which is situated beneath the southern Carpathian Arc. The region is characterized by a high rate of occurrence of large earthquakes in a narrow focal volume at depth from 70 to 160 km. Besides the Vrancea area, several zones of shallow seismicity located within and outside the Romanian territory are considered as seismically dangerous. We present the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, which implemented the “logic tree” approach, and which considered both the intermediate-depth and the shallow seismicity. Various available models of seismicity and ground-motion attenuation were used as the alternative variants. Seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensities, peak ground acceleration, and response spectra was evaluated for various return periods. Sensitivity study was performed to analyze the impact of variation of input parameters on the hazard results. The uncertainty on hazard estimates may be reduced by better understanding of parameters of the Vrancea source zone and the zones of crustal seismicity. Reduction of uncertainty associated with the ground-motion models is also very important issue for Romania.     

Slowness and azimuth determination for Bucovina array (BURAR) applying multiple signal techniques

The BURAR seismic array, located in Northern Romania (Bucovina region), is designed to monitor events located in an area poorly covered by other existing seismic stations. In order to use the BURAR array for single-station locations, it is crucial to calibrate the azimuth and slowness parameters, which are currently used in array techniques to locate earthquakes, blasts or nuclear explosions. The goal of this study is to apply “f–k” and plane wave fit techniques in order to constrain the slowness and azimuth parameters at BURAR for teleseismic, regional and local events. The analysis was carried out using P and S waves recorded for events occurred between 2004 and 2008 within a radius of 50° around BURAR. The azimuth values obtained applying both methods strongly deviated from the theoretical values for regions like Central Turkey, Bulgaria, Dodecanese Islands and other parts of Greece, while the ray parameter deviations with respect to a 1-D IASP91 reference model are less significant. For the local events, the anomalies are smaller, except the particular case of Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes for which strong azimuth deviations (33.5°), both positive and negative, are observed. We investigate how these systematic deviations in azimuth are explained by the structure lateral heterogeneities which characterize the study region.     

板内与板间地震活动时空分布的多重分形特征研究

利用多重分形分析方法,考察了中国大陆和台湾地区以及新西兰的地震活动广义应变释放时间和空间分布的多重分形特征. 结果表明,地震活动时空分布的多重分形特征与不同地球动力学环境关系密切. 强震活动时间分布在板间地区具有比板内地区更明显的丛集性, 对中小地震这种丛集性差异较小;强震活动空间分布在板内地区具有比板间地区更强的丛集性,但对中小地震则相反.      

Multifractal analysis of earthquakes

Multifractal properties of the epicenter and hypocenter distribution and also of the energy distribution of earthquakes are studied for California, Japan, and Greece. The calculatedD _q-q curves (the generalized dimension) indicate that the earthquake process is multifractal or heterogeneous in the fractal dimension. Japanese earthquakes are the most heterogeneous and Californian earthquakes are the least. Since the earthquake process is multifractal, a single value of the so-called fractal dimension is not sufficient to characterize the earthquake process. Studies of multifractal models of earthquakes are recommended. Temporal changes of theD _q-q curve are also obtained for Californian and Japanese earthquakes. TheD _q-q curve shows two distinctly different types in each region; the gentle type and the steep type. The steeptype corresponds to a strongly heterogeneous multifractal, which appears during seismically active periods when large earthquakes occur.D _q for smallq or negativeq is considerably more sensitive to the change in fractal structure of earthquakes thanD _q forq2. We recommend use ofD _q at smallq to detect the seismicity change in a local area.     

应用地震层析成象技术研究深部速度结构

罗马尼亚Ｖａｎｃｅａ地震区是大陆上发生与板块磁撞和削减有关的中深部地震活动的地区之一。本文介绍了应用地震层析成象方法研究该地区深部速度结构成果。在研究中使用了地方和区域地震所记录的４３３个浅源和中部地震的到时资料反演求解深至２００ｋｍ的三维速度结构,在走时和射线路径的计算中利用了有效的三维射线跟踪技术,在反演中采用ＬＳＱＲ算法,高分辨率的地震层析图象揭示了速度结构的广泛不均匀性,结果表明,地震层析     

Simulation of ground motion in the Moscow region using the empirical Green’s function

Historically, the Moscow region regularly experienced rather weak but quite perceptible seismic vibrations produced by intermediate-depth earthquakes of the Vrancea zone (Romania), located at a distance of 1400 km from Moscow. The coincidence of a number of unique factors such as a slowly varying focal depth, predominant source mechanisms, weak attenuation of seismic radiation in the north-northeast direction provide favorable conditions for application of the empirical Green’s function method. Using the digital seismogram of the Vrancea Mw-5.8 earthquake recorded at the Moscow seismic station, we simulated synthetic seismograms of a scenario (expected maximum) earthquake with Mw = 8.0, by application of the empirical Green’s function method adjusted for the given conditions. The calculation procedure was verified using analog records of strong earthquakes available at the Moscow seismic station. Digital records of the Obninsk seismic station included in the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) system were used for additional control. Here, the scenario earthquake was modeled using the data on a much stronger earthquake of 1990 (MW = 6.9). It is shown that, despite a certain scatter (quite adequately assessed in the scope of the method), the ultimate estimates of expected seismic impacts are quite reliable and can be recommended for practical use.     

Seismic observations in the DPRI 1800 m borehole drilled into the Nojima Fault zone, south-west Japan

Abstract Seismometers were installed at three depths in the Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University (DPRI) 1800 m borehole drilled into the Nojima Fault zone, southwest Japan. The waveforms recorded by these seismometers are rather simple compared with those recorded at the DPRI 800 m borehole or on the ground surface. These data should be well suited for detecting fault zone-trapped waves and estimating the fault zone structure and its temporal variation related to the healing process of the ruptured fault. Typical waveforms trapped in the fault zone were observed by a surface seismographic array across the Nojima Fault just after the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake (Kobe earthquake). Among the wave data recorded in the DPRI 1800 m borehole, however, clear evidences of fault zone-trapped waves have not yet been found, and further studies are continuing. The present study outlines the observation system in the DPRI 1800 m borehole, which will make it easier to access and analyze the borehole data.