Assessing the copula selection for bivariate frequency analysis based on the tail dependence test

The flood characteristics, namely, peak, duration and volume provide important information for the design of hydraulic structures, water resources planning, reservoir management and flood hazard mapping. Flood is a complex phenomenon defined by strongly correlated characteristics such as peak, duration and volume. Therefore, it is necessary to study the simultaneous, multivariate, probabilistic behaviour of flood characteristics. Traditional multivariate parametric distributions have widely been applied for hydrological applications. However, this approach has some drawbacks such as the dependence structure between the variables, which depends on the marginal distributions or the flood variables that have the same type of marginal distributions. Copulas are applied to overcome the restriction of traditional bivariate frequency analysis by choosing the marginals from different families of the probability distribution for flood variables. The most important step in the modelling process using copula is the selection of copula function which is the best fit for the data sample. The choice of copula may significantly impact the bivariate quantiles. Indeed, this study indicates that there is a huge difference in the joint return period estimation using the families of extreme value copulas and no upper tail copulas (Frank, Clayton and Gaussian) if there exists asymptotic dependence in the flood characteristics. This study suggests that the copula function should be selected based on the dependence structure of the variables. From the results, it is observed that the result from tail dependence test is very useful in selecting the appropriate copula for modelling the joint dependence structure of flood variables. The extreme value copulas with upper tail dependence have proved that they are appropriate models for the dependence structure of the flood characteristics and Frank, Clayton and Gaussian copulas are the appropriate copula models in case of variables which are diagnosed as asymptotic independence.     

Two scales for the frequency dependence of the scattering of pulsar radio emission

We have measured the pulse broadening by scattering at 40, 60, and 111 MHz for the pulsars PSR B0809+74, B0950+08, B1919+21, and B2303+30. The frequency dependence of the scatter-broadening parameter is analyzed based on these measurements and data from the literature. The dependence obtained purely from the literature data is not consistent with the theory, and the scattering magnitudes differs considerably from the data of the catalog of 706 pulsars of Taylor et al. A two-component model for the frequency dependence of the scattering of the pulsar radio emission in the interstellar medium is proposed. Allowing for the presence of two scattering scales removes both inconsistencies between the observational data for these four pulsars and differences between the observed and theoretical frequency dependences for the scattering, as well as the need to invoke anomalous scattering magnitudes. The data of the catalog of Taylor et al. need to be corrected for the difference in the scattering magnitudes in the two branches of the frequency dependence.     

Anomalous frequency dependence of scattering of the radio emission from the Crab pulsar

The frequency dependence of scattering of the radio emission from the Crab pulsar at the low frequencies 111, 63, and 44 MHz has been measured and analyzed during sporadic enhancements of scattering and dispersion measure in October–December 2006 and December 2008. The frequency dependence of the scattering differs from the generally accepted dependence, τ _sc (ν) ∝ ν ^γ , where γ = −4.0 for Gaussian and γ = −4.4 for power-law Kolmogorov distributions of inhomogeneities of the scattering medium. In intervals of enhancement, the exponent of the frequency dependence γ decreased to −3.2(0.2) at the above frequencies. A model is proposed in which this is due to the presence of a dense plasma structure in the nebula in the line of sight toward the pulsar, in which scattering of the radio emission on turbulence differs from scattering in the interstellar medium. It is shown that the frequency dependence of scattering of the radio emission can be weaker in a dense plasma than in the rarefied interstellar medium.     

Quasielastic incoherent neutron scattering study of the rotational dynamics of the water molecules in analcime

The rotational motion of the water molecules in analcime has been investigated by quasielastic incoherent neutron scattering. Reorientational times vary from 65 ± 20 ps at 260 K to 26 ± 3 ps at 370 K, and the temperature dependence suggests an activation energy for reorientations of 780 ± 200 K. Measurements of the temperature dependence of the intensity of the elastic incoherent scattering indicate that there is no cooperative ordering at low temperatures, and that instead there is a gradual freezing-in of the motion of individual water molecules.     

地质勘查行业管理制度变迁的路径依赖与创新选择

根据制度变迁和路径依赖理论来分析我国地质勘查行业管理制度变迁中的路径依赖现象,发现我国地质勘查行业管理制度变迁具有强制性、渐进性、滞后性和单一性特征。并因不良惯性的路径依赖陷入非效率的锁定状态,主要表现为：方式手段上重审批轻监管、管理理念上重管理轻服务、体制机制上重政府主导轻市场参与。分析认为,原有管理制度的惯性作用和改革的阻力与动力,是影响地质勘查行业管理制度变迁中路径依赖性的主要因素。地质勘查行业管理改革创新需要从降低改革阻力、克服制度惯性、增加改革动力等三个方面来打破原有管理制度的锁定效应。     

Pressure dependence of melt viscosities on the join diopside-albite

The pressure dependence of melt viscosities on the join diopside-albite has been studied using falling-sphere viscometry. The five melt compositions investigated are: diopside, Ab₂₅Di₇₅, Ab₅₀Di₅₀, Ab₇₅Di₂₅ and albite. Experiments were performed at 1500° and 1600°C and at pressures of 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 kbar. The positive and negative pressure dependence of the viscosity of diopside and albite, respectively, were confirmed. All intermediate compositions show an initial decrease in viscosity with increasing pressure; however, melt of Ab₂₅Di₇₅ composition passes through a minimum viscosity at approximately 12 kbar and 1600°C. This behavior is analogous to the variation in the viscosity of water with pressure at low temperature.

It is suggested that the three-dimensional, fully polymerized, albite structure dominates flow at low pressures. With increasing pressure, disruption of this structure and decrease in the average size of the flow units leads to domination by the diopside structure. The variation in viscosity with composition along the join at one atmosphere can be adequately modelled using the and (1965) configurational entropy model with an additional two-lattice configurational entropy of mixing term. The pressure dependence of viscosity in the diopside-albite system, however, cannot be predicted by the model, because there is an absence of information on the pressure dependence of the model parameters.

It is probable that relatively polymerized magmas (e.g. rhyolites to SiO₂-saturated basalts) show a negative pressure dependence of viscosity to depths where they originate in the lower crust or upper mantle. In contrast, the most depolymerized, naturally-occurring melts, such as strongly SiO₂-undersaturated basalts and picrites, may exhibit a viscosity minimum. The viscosity of these melts may be sufficiently high at depths within the upper mantle to inhibit their segregation, rise and eventual eruption at the surface.     

A possible mechanism for the X-ray emission of Be/X stars

A new mechanism for the generation of X-ray emission in binary Be/X stars is proposed. It is shown that the mass-transfer rate through the point L₁ in a model in which the optical component of a Be/X star has an expanding envelope is sufficient to generate the observed X-ray luminosities of such stars. The results of computations indicate a dependence between the orbital periods and X-ray fluxes of these systems. The relationship between the orbital perod and the mass-transfer rate during flares obtained from modeling corresponds to the observed dependence of the maximum X-ray flux on the orbital period.     

Temperature dependence of the relationship of thermal diffusivity versus thermal conductivity for crystalline rocks

Thermal diffusivity governs the transient heat transport equation. Thus, a realistic characterisation of this parameter and its temperature dependence is crucial for geothermal modelling. Due to sparse information from boreholes, lack of samples, and elaborate measurement procedures, there is often insufficient data on thermal diffusivity at elevated temperatures. We make use of existing data on crystalline (metamorphic and magmatic) rock samples from the Kola Peninsula and the Eastern Alps and develop a general relationship for the temperature dependence of thermal diffusivity up to 300°C. The temperature dependence of thermal conductivity is parameterised itself, using an empirical relationship which is set up for both data sets as well. Hence, only thermal conductivity at ambient temperatures is required for determining the temperature dependence of thermal diffusivity. We obtain different coefficients for both data sets which can be explained by different geological settings, and therefore different mineral compositions and internal structures. Comparisons with other expressions for these rock physical parameters show a good agreement at ambient conditions. General relations for thermal diffusivity at elevated temperatures are rare. A comparison of our results with data from two crystalline samples from the KTB and data from the Southern Indian Granulite Province highlights the need for further data, which will help to quantify uncertainties.     

Apparent angular sizes of the sources of microwave subsecond pulses and electron-density fluctuations in the lower solar corona

Data on the visible angular sizes of sources of microwave subsecond pulses (MSPs) obtained using the Siberian Solar Radio Telescope are analyzed assuming a dominant role for scattering on small-scale electron-density inhomogeneities in the solar corona. The observed dependence of the angular sizes of MSPs on the distance from the solar-disk center confirms that the MSP sources are localized in low layers of the solar corona. Both absolute and fractional levels of small-scale electron-density fluctuations have been estimated. These estimates suggest that flicker-noise-type turbulence power spectra are formed in the lower corona, and are preserved in the solar-wind acceleration region. A composite dependence of the scattering angle of a sounding radio wave on distance from the Sun is presented.     

Carbon isotopes of organic matter from the upper Jurassic oil shales from the Volgian-Pechora shale province and its accumulation mechanisms

The isotopic composition of carbon from the organic matter of late Jurassic oil shales from the Volgian-Pechora shale province is studied. The existence of a dependence between C_org content in the rock and the isotopic composition of kerogen carbon is ascertained. The content of the heavy carbon isotope increases with increasing C_org. This dependence is accounted for by the progressive accumulation of isotopically heavy hydrocarbons of the initial organic matter due to sulfurization. The data on the isotopic composition of individual n-alkanes of bitumen in the rocks and the data on the absence of isotopic fractionation between thermobitumen and the residual kerogen from oil shales from the Volgian-Pechora shale province obtained by treating shale in an autoclave in the presence of water are presented first in this paper.     

Dissolution study of tremolite and anthophyllite: pH effect on the reaction kinetics

The effect of pH on the kinetics of tremolite and anthophyllite dissolution was investigated at 25 °C in batch reactors over the pH range of 1–13.5, in inorganic buffered solutions. Dissolution rates were obtained based on the release of Si and Mg. Results obtained in this study show different behaviors for both minerals. For tremolite, dissolution rates show a noticeable dependence on pH between 1 and 8, decreasing as pH increases and reaching a minimum around neutral conditions. At basic pH this dependence becomes even stronger, but dissolution takes place together with collateral effects of saturation and carbonation. A preferential release of Ca and Mg is observed in acid media, lowering the Mg/Si ratio to the extent that Mg solubility decreases with pH. For anthophyllite, dissolution rates also show a strong dependence on pH, between 1 and 9.5. At the same pH, anthophyllite dissolves up to 8 times faster than tremolite. For pH > 9.5 this dependence is smooth, and it is probably associated with effects of saturation and carbonation. Dissolution is also non-stoichiometric with a faster release of Mg with respect to Si in acid media. SEM observations show differences in the breakage mechanism of the fibers. The anthophyllite particle breakage during dissolution consists of the splitting of bundle fibers parallel to the fiber longitudinal direction. However, for tremolite, other than fiber splitting, particles shorten induced by coalescence of etch pits developed perpendicular to c axe.     

Markov chain model to study the occurrence of pre-monsoon thunderstorms over Bhubaneswar,India

The present work deals with pre-monsoon thunderstorms over Bhubaneswar belonging to the state of Orissa, India. A Markovian approach has been adopted to discern the probabilistic behavior of the time series of the occurrence and non-occurrence of this hazardous weather event by introducing a dichotomy within the time series. After a painstaking analysis through chi-square tests, we have identified serial independence in a few years and first-order two-state Markovian dependence in a few years (2000, 2001, 2004 and 2006). Finally, for the years of first-order two-state Markovian dependence, it has been observed that the probability of occurrence or non-occurrence of thunderstorm gets higher if the state of the previous day is similar to that of the current day. Furthermore, the probability of getting non-thunderstorm day followed by non-thunderstorm day is higher than the probability of getting thunderstorm day followed by thunderstorm day. It has been also observed that the unconditional climatological probability of the occurrence of severe pre-monsoon thunderstorm implied by the Markov chain is closely in agreement with the observed relative frequencies. However, it could be revealed that Markov chain cannot, in general, be suggested as a predictive tool for pre-monsoon thunderstorms under study without investigating the serial dependence inherent in the time series.     

The Golitsyn rule of the fastest reaction in the geodynamo theory

It is shown that the Golitsyn rule of the fastest reaction can be used in justification of the empirical dependence of the geomagnetic field strength on the thermal convection intensity in the Earth’s liquid core (derived by some authors from numerical simulation of a convective dynamo) for systems described in terms of hydrodynamics.     

Solution of the radiative-transfer equations with an azimuth-averaged Hanle phase matrix

The system of radiative-transfer equations for polarized radiation is solved analytically using an azimuth-averaged Hanle phase matrix. A Milne-Eddington model with a constant ratio of the line and continuum absorption coefficients and a linear dependence of the source function on optical depth is adopted for the atmosphere. The vector magnetic field is taken to be constant with optical depth. The dependence of the linear polarization obtained during observations at the solar limb on the magnitude and inclination of the magnetic field to the normal of the atmosphere is presented as an illustration of the theoretical computations. The measured polarization corresponds to two magnetic-field values and several possible field inclinations. The measured polarization is directly proportional to the quantum coefficient W ₂ determining the resonance polarization in lines.     

The pressure dependence of the zirconium-in-rutile thermometer

The solubility of ZrO₂ in rutile is strongly temperature-dependent and has been identified as a potentially powerful thermometer when the rutile coexists with an appropriate buffer assemblage, e.g. zircon + quartz. In combination with experimental data at 10 kbar, previous consideration of data on natural rutile has not identified a pressure dependence for the thermometer. However, the expected volume change as a result of substitution of the larger Zr⁴⁺ cation for Ti⁴⁺ suggests that the Zr content of rutile should decrease with increasing pressure. To investigate the pressure dependence of the thermometer, piston cylinder (at 10, 20 & 30 kbar) and 1 atm furnace experiments were performed in the system ZrO₂-TiO₂-SiO₂. The solubility of ZrO₂ in rutile, in the presence of zircon and quartz was reversed at each pressure value. From these experiments, the thermodynamics of the end-member reaction ZrSiO₄ = SiO₂ + ZrO₂ (in rutile) have been determined. There is a secondary pressure effect accompanying the primary temperature dependence of the Zr content of rutile. New thermometer equations are, in the α -quartz field: in the β -quartz field and in the coesite field in which φ is ppm Zr, P is in kbar and R is the gas constant, 0.0083144 kJ K⁻¹. Thermometric results using these equations are shown for a range of geological settings.     

Analytical solution of advection–diffusion equation in heterogeneous infinite medium using Green’s function method

Some analytical solutions of one-dimensional advection–diffusion equation (ADE) with variable dispersion coefficient and velocity are obtained using Green’s function method (GFM). The variability attributes to the heterogeneity of hydro-geological media like river bed or aquifer in more general ways than that in the previous works. Dispersion coefficient is considered temporally dependent, while velocity is considered spatially and temporally dependent. The spatial dependence is considered to be linear and temporal dependence is considered to be of linear, exponential and asymptotic. The spatio-temporal dependence of velocity is considered in three ways. Results of previous works are also derived validating the results of the present work. To use GFM, a moving coordinate transformation is developed through which this ADE is reduced into a form, whose analytical solution is already known. Analytical solutions are obtained for the pollutant’s mass dispersion from an instantaneous point source as well as from a continuous point source in a heterogeneous medium. The effect of such dependence on the mass transport is explained through the illustrations of the analytical solutions.     

Effects of a mudcake on Stoneley waves in a fluid-filled porous formation around a borehole

A mudcake formed on the borehole wall between a fluid-filled porous formation and the borehole fluid can affect Stoneley wave propagation used to estimate the formation permeability. The mudcake effect on the permeability dependence of radial oscillations of borehole fluid is investigated in a system with a source generating radial acoustic waves in the borehole and hydrophones (pressure sensors) that record the respective attenuating oscillations of the borehole fluid. The permeability of the porous formation is estimated from theoretical permeability dependence of the attenuation exponent, knowing the time dependence of the exponential attenuation of borehole fluid oscillations.     

On the threshold of transport of sand-sized sediment under the combined influence of unidirectional and oscillatory flow

While the transport of sediment by unidirectional currents or by oscillatory (wave-induced) currents has been investigated, very little attention has been paid to the problem of the threshold of transport under the two mechanisms combined. Studies were carried out using cohesionless sand-sized (mean diameters: 142, 363, 771 and 1134 μm) quartz grains in a unidirectional flume, within which an oscillatory carriage had been installed. The experiments were carried out under unidirectional velocities ranging between 0 and 27 cm s^-1, combined with simulated wave-induced currents (at periods of 5 and 15 s) ranging from 0 to 35 cm s^-1. The threshold of transport was assessed, by visual observation, using the Yalin Criterion for unidirectional flow. This criterion permitted critical conditions to be estimated subjectively by observation of incipient transport from the flat beds. The results indicated the dependence of the critical threshold velocity combination on grain size and wave period. Thresholds tend to increase with increasing grain size or decreasing period. The grain-size dependence is predictable from existing empirical relationships for the separate mechanisms; statistical fluctuations in near-bed stress (bursting) however, are invoked to explain the wave period dependence. The latter effect acts in a reverse manner for wave and current combinations than for waves alone. Graphs are presented, relating grain size to critical threshold velocity combinations, to aid in the sedimentological interpretation of field data.     

Analysis of the noise background of the “ULITKA” gravitational antenna

A long-term analysis of the noise background of the “ULITKA” gravitational-wave antenna is presented in connection with searches for anomalous impulsive signals and slow solar-terrestrial correlations with a period of 27 days. Automated selection and estimation algorithms are used, including nonparametric criteria for the statistical dependence of samples uniform in time. The upper limit for the gravitational-noise background is confirmed by the observational statistics. The presence of slow, anomalous correlations is not confirmed.     

Permutation Methods for Determining the Significance of Spatial Dependence

A class of multivariate nonparametric tests for spatial dependence, Multivariate Sequential Permutation Analyses (MSPA), is developed and applied to the analysis of spatial data. These tests allow the significance level (P value) of the spatial correlation to be computed for each lag class. MSPA is shown to be related to the variogram and other measures of spatial correlation. The interrelationships of these measures of spatial dependence are discussed and the measures are applied to synthetic and real data. The resulting plot of significance level vs. lag spacing, or P-gram, provides insight into the modeling of the semivariogram and the semimADogram. Although the test clearly rejects some models of correlation, the chief value of the test is to quantify the strength of spatial correlation, and to provide evidence that spatial correlation exists