Deep-seated faults and lineaments, and the location of earthquake epicenters in the Russian northeast on land

This paper summarizes the available geological and geophysical material for faults as regards their role in the seismic process. The entirety of the geological and geophysical evidence is used to reveal hidden faults, which are important in influencing the spatial distribution of earthquakes, and to produce a map of the major earthquake-generating faults and lineaments in the Russian northeast. As well as the occurrence of earthquakes at known faults that have surface expression, we find that seismicity tends to occur at the hidden faults and lineaments we have identified, as well as at intersections of faults. We made a quantitative assessment of the relationship of seismicity to tectonic fragmentation of the crust, correlating the density and discordance measure for faults to indicators of seismic activity (rate and energy release of earthquakes per unit area) for the southeast flank of the Okhotsk-Lena seismic region. The results obtained in this study revealed some features in the spatial distribution of earthquakes occurring on land in the Okhotsk-Lena seismic region: the maximum level of seismic activity occurs in areas with moderate values of the discordance measure for faults (12 < ‖D‖ ≤ 18) as identified from gravity data and in zones of increased horizontal gradients of the lines of equal discordance. At these locations, the greatest probability of earthquake occurrence for events of energy class K ≥ 12 corresponds to moderate values of the density of faults visible at the surface (0.12 < τ ≤ 0.16 km^?1).     

青藏高原东北缘断层系统的大地震迁移概率及断层滑动速度的分段特征

青藏高原东北缘是青藏高原隆升、生长及变形前缘.区域地震活动频繁,且地震在其主要断层带之间时空迁移.为了研究区域大地震在主要断层带之间的迁移规律与概率,以及主要断层带大地震破裂的时空分布特征,本文建立了青藏高原东北缘地区的三维黏弹塑性有限元模型,模拟了区域断层系统的地震循环,得到了人工合成的万年时间尺度的地震目录.根据模拟的地震目录,并结合古地震数据,计算分析了大地震(MW≥7)在研究区各个主要断层带之间的迁移概率,探讨了黏度、高程、统计时间长度等因素对大地震在各主要断层带之间的迁移概率和大地震在各主要断层带上的发生概率的影响,并且初步调查了海原断层带和香山天景山断层带的大地震破裂时空分布特征.研究结果显示:继区域最近两次大地震(1920年海原断层带上的M8.5海原大地震和1927年香山天景山断层带上的M8古浪大地震)之后,下一次大地震(MW≥7)发生在海原断层上的概率最大,约为51%～81%;其次是在香山天景山断层上,概率约为9%～37%.模型结果显示,不同的青藏高原中下地壳上地幔黏度大小,对大地震在各个断层带之间的迁移规律和迁移概率的影响较小;而研究区的高程载荷对地震迁移则有显著的影响:高程载荷易于使得海原断层地震活动减弱及香山天景山断层的地震活动增强.研究结果也显示了青藏高原东北缘地区主要断层带的地震活动与断层滑动速率分布的分段性显著;大地震在断层带上的破裂位置并不固定,呈现不均匀性;并暗示了断层几何形状对地震活动、断层滑动速率分布与大地震破裂位置的控制作用.     

Earthquake relocation in the Central Alborz region of Iran using a non-linear probabilistic method

In this study, we calculate accurate absolute locations for nearly 3,000 shallow earthquakes (≤20 km depth) that occurred from 1996 to 2010 in the Central Alborz region of northern Iran using a non-linear probabilistic relocation algorithm on a local scale. We aim to produce a consistent dataset with a realistic assessment of location errors using probabilistic hypocenter probability density functions. Our results indicate significant improvement in hypocenter locations and far less scattering than in the routine earthquake catalog. According to our results, 816 earthquakes have horizontal uncertainties in the 0.5–3.0 km range, and 981 earthquakes are relocated with focal-depth errors less than 3.0 km, even with a suboptimal network geometry. Earthquake relocated are tightly clustered in the eastern Tehran region and are mainly associated with active faults in the study area (the Mosha and Garmsar faults). Strong historical earthquakes have occurred along the Mosha and Garmsar faults, and the relocated earthquakes along these faults show clear north-dipping structures and align along east–west lineations, consistent with the predominant trend of faults within the study region. After event relocation, all seismicity lies in the upper 20 km of the crust, and no deep seismicity (>20 km depth) has been observed. In many circumstances, the seismicity at depth does not correlate with surface faulting, suggesting that the faulting at depth does not directly offset overlying sediments.     

RELOCATION OF THE BACKGROUND SEISMICITY AND INVESTIGATION ON THE BURIED ACTIVE FAULTS IN SOUTHEASTERN CHINA

Most of the regions in southeastern China are covered by thick Cenozoic sediments, or are the mountainous areas, so it is difficult to find and locate the active faults using the conventional geologic methods. The precisely relocated background seismicity in the seismically active region can be used to identify the buried active structure. In this paper, we investigated the relationship between regional tectonics and background seismicity, and interpreted the possible buried active faults in southeastern China using the relocated background seismicity. We relocated the background seismicity occurring in the region from 106°E to 122°E and from 22°N to 35°N between 1990 and 2014 using the doubble difference earthquake location algorithm. More than 51000 small earthquakes were relocated. In general, the relocated background seismicity corresponds well to the tectonics, showing the zonation features with typical seismicity pattern in each tectonic regime. It is observed that in the weakly active tectonic regime, the seismicity distributes dispersely or even scarcely, while in the strongly active tectonic region, the seismicity is highly clustered and organized to lineation pattern showing the same direction as the strike of the dominating fault zone. We interpreted the buried active faults using the lineation of seismicity. The inferred active faults are observed in the southeast coast region, the northwest Guangxi Province, the southeast boundary region of the Sichian Basin, and around the Huoshan Fault, many of which were not found by previous studies. The relocated hypocentral depth varies greatly in southeastern China. The shallowest earthquakes between 0 and 15km mainly distribute in the central region, indicating that the brittle deformation process only occurred in the upper crust, while the middle and lower crust are to be half-ductile and ductile deformation. There are earthquakes occurred in lower crust in the southeast coast region. The maximum depths distribute in the southeast boundary region of the Sichuan Basin, some are greater than 40km, indicating that the crust depth is larger than other places and the lower crust still sustains brittle deformation, which corresponds to the lower geothermal value and high crustal strength.     

Evolution of Stress Fields and Faulting in Seismic Zones

—Measurements indicate that stress magnitudes in the crust are normally limited by the frictional equilibrium on pre-existing, optimally oriented faults. Fault zones where these limitations are frequently reached are referred to as seismic zones. Fault zones in the crust concentrate stresses because their material properties are different from those of the host rock. Most fault zones are spatially relatively stable structures, however the associated seismicity in these zones is quite variable in space and time. Here we propose that this variability is attributable to stress-concentration zones that migrate and expand through the fault zone. We suggest that following a large earthquake and the associated stress relaxation, shear stresses of a magnitude sufficient to produce earthquakes occur only in those small parts of the seismic zone that, because of material properties and boundary conditions, encourage concentration of shear stress. During the earthquake cycle, the conditions for seismogenic fault slip migrate from these stress-concentration regions throughout the entire seismic zone. Thus, while the stress-concentration regions continue to produce small slips and small earthquakes throughout the seismic cycle, the conditions for slip and earthquakes are gradually reached in larger parts of, and eventually the whole, seismogenic layer of the seismic zone. Prior to the propagation of an earthquake fracture that gives rise to a large earthquake, the stress conditions in the zone along the whole potential rupture plane must be essentially similar. This follows because if they were not, then, on entering crustal parts where the state of stress was unfavourable to this type of faulting, the fault propagation would be arrested. The proposed necessary homogenisation of the stress field in a seismic zone as a precursor to large earthquakes implies that by monitoring the state of stress in a seismic zone, its large earthquakes may possibly be forecasted. We test the model on data from Iceland and demonstrate that it broadly explains the historical, as well as the current, patterns of seismogenic faulting in the South Iceland Seismic Zone.     

Spatial organization of seismicity and fracture pattern in NE Italy and W Slovenia

The study focuses on the spatial organization of seismicity and the relation between fracture pattern and earthquakes in the Friuli (north-eastern Italy) and western Slovenia seismic regions. The structural setting is characterized by a complex structure resulting from the superposition of several tectonic phases that generated NW-SE trending Dinaric faults and about E-W trending Alpine faults. The upper crust is characterized by lithological and mechanical heterogeneities. The fractal analysis shows that, in general, the seismicity only partially fills a plane. Only in a few cases, the earthquakes distribute on planar structures. The orientation of planes that fit through the hypocentres shows a different disposition at the two depth intervals analysed. The shallower interval (0–10 km) is characterized by planes with highly variable orientations. The spatial seismicity is investigated in the context of a general damage model, represented by the crack density distribution. The results evidence that the seismicity appears mostly located along sharp transition areas from low crack density to higher crack density, i.e., from zones of low damage to zones of intermediate damage. These zones are characterized by high heterogeneity due to the superposition of different tectonic phases and by the maximum interference between Dinaric and Alpine domains. The orientation of the planes fitting the seismicity at 10–20-km depth appears less dispersed, coinciding with the trend of Dinaric sub-vertical faults in the northern and eastern parts of the study area, and with Alpine low-angle faults in the western and southern parts.     

Spatial Separation of Large Earthquakes, Aftershocks, and Background Seismicity: Analysis of Interseismic and Coseismic Seismicity Patterns in Southern California

We associate waveform-relocated background seismicity and aftershocks with the 3-D shapes of late Quaternary fault zones in southern California. Major earthquakes that can slip more than several meters, aftershocks, and near-fault background seismicity mostly rupture different surfaces within these fault zones. Major earthquakes rupture along the mapped traces of the late Quaternary faults, called the principal slip zones (PSZs). Aftershocks occur either on or in the immediate vicinity of the PSZs, typically within zones that are ??2-km wide. In contrast, the near-fault background seismicity is mostly accommodated on a secondary heterogeneous network of small slip surfaces, and forms spatially decaying distributions extending out to distances of ??10?km from the PSZs. We call the regions where the enhanced rate of background seismicity occurs, the seismic damage zones. One possible explanation for the presence of the seismic damage zones and associated seismicity is that the damage develops as faults accommodate bends and geometrical irregularities in the PSZs. The seismic damage zones mature and reach their finite width early in the history of a fault, during the first few kilometers of cumulative offset. Alternatively, the similarity in width of seismic damage zones suggests that most fault zones are of almost equal strength, although the amount of cumulative offset varies widely. It may also depend on the strength of the fault zone, the time since the last major earthquake as well as other parameters. In addition, the seismic productivity appears to be influenced by the crustal structure and heat flow, with more extensive fault networks in regions of thin crust and high heat flow.     

Clustering Analysis of Spatial Distribution of Seismicity in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea

According to tie records of seismic station networks of China's continent and Korea Peninsula and the historical data,the complete seismicity pattern was obtained for the first time.The seismic zoning was conducted by means of the cluster analysis method.The map's spatial distribution of seismicity from 1960 to 1994 shows that there are three strong seismic zones:the first one strikes in the NE direction,from the Jiangsu plain in China to the central Korean Peninsula; the second strikes in the NW direction,from the Bohai Sea,China to the southern Korean Peninsula; the third strikes in the NW direction,from the western Liaoning Province to Pyongyang.Most of earthquakes are located along these three zones,the seismic intensity is lower than that in the mainland,and exhibited the feature of fractured crust of a marginal sea basin.     

SEISMO-GEOLOGICAL SIGNATURES FOR IDENTIFYING M≥7.0 EARTHQUAKE RISK AREAS AND THEIR PREMILIMARY APPLICATION IN MAINLAND CHINA

High-magnitude earthquake refers to an earthquake that can produce obvious surface ruptures along its seismogenic fault and its magnitude M is at least equal to 7.0. Prediction and identification of locations, where the high-magnitude earthquakes will occur in potential, is one of the scientific goals of the studies on long-term faulting behavior of active faults and paleo-earthquakes, and is also the key problem of earthquake prediction and forecast. The study of the geological and seismological signatures for identifying M≥7.0 earthquake risk areas and their application is an important part of seismic prediction researches. It can not only promote the development of earthquake science, especially the progress of earthquake monitoring and forecasting, but also be positive for earthquake disaster prevention and effective mitigation of possible earthquake disaster losses. It is also one of the earthquake science problems which the governments, societies and the scientific communities are very concerned about and need to be addressed. Large or great earthquakes, such as the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake(M8.0), the 2010 Yushu earthquake(M7.1), the 2013 Lushan earthquake(M7.0)and the 2015 Gorkha earthquake(M_W7.8), have unceasingly struck the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its surrounding areas, which have been attracting attention of a large number of geoscientists both at home and abroad. Owing to good coverage of the seismic networks and GPS sations, a lot of high-quality publications in seismicity, crustal velocity structure, faulting beihavior have been pressed, which gives us a good chance to summarize some common features of these earthquakes. In this paper, seismogenic structural model of these earthquakes, faulting behavior of seismogenic faults, crustal mechanical property, recent straining environment and pre-earthquake seismicity are first analyzed, and then, five kinds of common features for the sismogenic faults where those earthquakes occurred. Those five kinds of commom features are, in fact, the geological and seismological signatures for identifying M≥7.0 earthquake risk areas. The reliability of the obtained sigatures is also discussed in brief. At last, based on the results of 1:50000 active fault mapping, and published seismic tomography and fault-locking studies, an experimental identification of the risk areas for the future large/great earthquakes in the North China and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is conducted to test the scientificity and applicability of these obtained sigantures.     

Delineation of seismic zonation using fractal modeling in West Yazd province,Central Iran

This study is an attempt to identify seismic zones utilizing number-size (N-S) and concentration-area (C-A) fractal models in the West Yazd province, Central Iran. The analysis was based on the earthquakes’ magnitude and Quaternary faults’ density. Fault density map was generated and classified by fractal modeling. The result indicates that the main fault densities correlate with Dehshir and Eqlid faults. Furthermore, the areas with relatively large earthquake magnitudes are located in the SE and NE parts of the region. The Quaternary faults’ density and earthquake magnitudes were weighted based on the results of the fractal modeling. Finally, weighted maps were combined and classified to show that Dehshir fault has the main role for seismicity in this area. Comparison between results derived via the fractal modeling and conventional seismic zonation map is satisfactory. Furthermore, fractal modeling approach distinguishes different seismic zones with higher accuracy in smaller areas. For validation of results, earthquakes since 2012 were collected and associated with seismic zones. These earthquakes which are correlated with major seismic zones are mainly located near the Dehshir and main Zagros faults.     

A Review of Earthquake Statistics: Fault and Seismicity-Based Models, ETAS and BASS

There are two fundamentally different approaches to assessing the probabilistic risk of earthquake occurrence. The first is fault based. The statistical occurrence of earthquakes is determined for mapped faults. The applicable models are renewal models in that a tectonic loading of faults is included. The second approach is seismicity based. The risk of future earthquakes is based on the past seismicity in the region. These are also known as cluster models. An example of a cluster model is the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. In this paper we discuss an alternative branching aftershock sequence (BASS) model. In the BASS model an initial, or seed, earthquake is specified. The subsequent earthquakes are obtained from statistical distributions of magnitude, time, and location. The magnitude scaling is based on a combination of the Gutenberg-Richter scaling relation and the modified Båth’s law for the scaling relation of aftershock magnitudes relative to the magnitude of the main earthquake. Omori’s law specifies the distribution of earthquake times, and a modified form of Omori’s law specifies the distribution of earthquake locations. Unlike the ETAS model, the BASS model is fully self-similar, and is not sensitive to the low magnitude cutoff.     

2008年和2014年于田地震对周边断层发震概率的影响

大震后区域静态库仑应力变化直接影响地震活动性速率的变化、主震断层外余震和即将失稳断层的发震概率的变化.利用滑移速率和状态相依赖的摩擦定律,结合2008年3月21日于田地震前后的地震活动性水平,定量计算了2008年于田地震后该地区周边断层发震概率的变化,着重解释了2014年于田地震发震的可能根源.此外,本文还对库仑应力明显变化的周边三条断层进行了发震概率的定量计算.贡嘎错断裂中段、贡嘎错断裂西南段和康西瓦断裂中段分别经历了发震概率先降后升、先升后升和先降后降两个阶段,充分显示了库仑应力的细微变化造成的周边断层的危险性的变化.这三条断裂发生7.0级以上地震的发震概率超越95%均需要500年左右;贡嘎错断裂西南段发生中强地震的可能性较大,而康西瓦断裂中段活跃度较低.     

8级特大地震前地震活动平静特征——以中国大陆西部近期2次8级地震为例

中强地震平静图像已被许多研究者认为是强震前的一个典型异常指标。近期中国大陆西部2次8级地震前地震活动图像的研究认为,8级特大地震前不仅中强震出现大面积平静,而且中小地震也会出现大规模平静现象,形成地震空区。震前依据震级由大而小逐级形成配套出现的地震空区,可作为中国大陆西部8级特大地震的中短期预测与8级地震发生地区的判定的一项有实际意义的指标。     

Seismic gaps and source zones of recent large earthquakes in coastal Peru

The earthquakes of central coastal Peru occur principally in two distinct zones of shallow earthquake activity that are inland of and parallel to the axis of the Peru Trench. The interface-thrust (IT) zone includes the great thrust-fault earthquakes of 17 October 1966 and 3 October 1974. The coastal-plate interior (CPI) zone includes the great earthquake of 31 May 1970, and is located about 50 km inland of and 30 km deeper than the interface thrust zone. The occurrence of a large earthquake in one zone may not relieve elastic strain in the adjoining zone, thus complicating the application of the seismic gap concept to central coastal Peru. However, recognition of two seismic zones may facilitate detection of seismicity precursory to a large earthquake in a given zone; removal of probable CPI-zone earthquakes from plots of seismicity prior to the 1974 main shock dramatically emphasizes the high seismic activity near the rupture zone of that earthquake in the five years preceding the main shock. Other conclusions on the seismicity of coastal Peru that affect the application of the seismic gap concept to this region are: (1) Aftershocks of the great earthquakes of 1966, 1970, and 1974 occurred in spatially separated clusters. Some clusters may represent distinct small source regions triggered by the main shock rather than delimiting the total extent of main-shock rupture. The uncertainty in the interpretation of aftershock clusters results in corresponding uncertainties in estimates of stress drop and estimates of the dimensions of the seismic gap that has been filled by a major earthquake. (2) Aftershocks of the great thrust-fault earthquakes of 1966 and 1974 generally did not extend seaward as far as the Peru Trench. (3) None of the three great earthquakes produced significant teleseismic activity in the following month in the source regions of the other two earthquakes. The earthquake hypocenters that form the basis of this study were relocated using station adjustments computed by the method of joint hypocenter determination.     

Seismotectonic Study on the West Part of the Interaction Zone Between Southern Tianshan and Northern Tarim

The interaction zone between southern Tianshan and northern Tarim is located at the northeast side of Pamir. It is a region with high seismicity. We constructed a seismotectonic model for the west part of this zone from geological profiles, deep crust seismic detection and earthquake focal mechanisms data. Based on the synthesized geological features, deep crust structure, and earthquake focal mechanisms, we think that the main regional tectonic feature is that the Tianshan tecto-lithostratigraphic unit overthrusts on the Tarim block. The Tianshan tectonic system includes the Maidan fault and thrust sheets in front of the fault; The Tarim tectonic system includes the underground northern Tarim margin fault, conjugate faults in basement and overthrust fault in shallow. The northern Tarim margin fault is a high angle fault deep in the Tarim crust, adjusting different trending deformation between Tianshan and Tarim. It is a major active fault that can generate large earthquakes. The other faults, such as the Tianshan overthrust system and the Tarim basement faults in this area may generate moderately strong earthquakes with different styles.     

强震前中短期地震活动异常动态图像的表示方法及其预测意义

提出了二个描述中强震发生前中短期阶段地震活动异常时空演经图像的参量σＮ、σＥ。分别将其用于华北地区、新疆地震区及南北地震带,并对其预报效能进行检验,对其异常的空间分布图像与强震发生地震进行了分析,结果表明,该二参量能较好地瓜倾吐夺前中短期阶段孕震区及其周围地区地震活动的异常平静及丛集的现象。二参量异常的时空分布图像上示出在中强震发生前３个月至１年在震中周围地区有明显的异常分布,且随着时间逼近发震时     

基于特大地震发生率的川滇地区地震危险性预测新模型

川滇地区是我国地震危险性较高的地区之一.本文基于对特大强震的风险性考虑,使用全球地震模型OpenQuake软件,建立了川滇地区地震危险性预测新模型.首先根据构造特征划分多个震源分区,并整理出这些震源分区内断层活动特征与滑动速率;基于震源分区和断层模型,使用GPS应变率转换成的锥形古登堡-里克特关系作为整个区域的地震积累率,并允许超过历史最大震级的特大地震的出现,结合活动断层滑动速率所积累的地震发生率,给出震源分区内断层地震源和背景地震源的地震发生率的比率分配关系;在活动断层分段上,保留了大型断裂或其主要部分,没有根据小的阶区来对断层进行详细分段,以便分配特大地震发生率;并使用地震率平滑方法分配背景地震发生率.最后在OpenQuake中加入地震动预测方程,计算出了川滇地区的PGA分布图,为区域地震危险性提供科学依据.     

天山地壳非均匀性与地震分布

根据重力、航磁及地震波传播速度等地球物理资料，研究了天山地区的深部构造特征。发现天山两缘是地壳物质组成变化较大的场所，也是介质结构最不稳定的区域。地震的发生不仅涉及到地表断裂构造的分布和活动方式，而且与深部物质的非均匀程度有一定的联系。大部分中强地震都发生在地壳中部附近不同速度体之间的梯度带附近，那里是深部介质分布最不均匀的构造层位。它的存在与中强地震的孕育场所密切相关，在构造应力的作用下很容易发     

Long aftershock sequences in North China and Central US: implications for hazard assessment in mid-continents

Because seismic activity within mid-continents is usually much lower than that along plate boundary zones, even small earthquakes can cause widespread concerns, especially when these events occur in the source regions of previous large earthquakes. However, these small earthquakes may be just aftershocks that continue for decades or even longer. The recent seismicity in the Tangshan region in North China is likely aftershocks of the 1976 Great Tangshan earthquake. The current earthquake sequence in the New Madrid seismic zone in central United States, which includes a cluster of M ~ 7.0 events in 1811–1812 and a number of similar events in the past millennium, is believed to result from recent fault reactivation that releases pre-stored strain energy in the crust. If so, this earthquake sequence is similar to aftershocks in that the rates of energy release should decay with time and the sequence of earthquakes will eventually end. We use simple physical analysis and numerical simulations to show that the current sequence of large earthquakes in the New Madrid fault zone is likely ending or has ended. Recognizing that mid-continental earthquakes have long aftershock sequences and complex spatiotemporal occurrences are critical to improve hazard assessments.     

Influence of fluids on deep crustal Jabalpur earthquake of 21, May 1997: Geophysical evidences

We present the geophysical evidences on the role of fluids for generation of the lower crustal Jabalpur earthquake (21 May 1997, mb 6.0, Mw 5.8), in the mid-continental fracture zone of the Indian Peninsular Shield. With a focal depth of 35 km, it indicates a high angled (< 62^∘ enclosed with maximum principal stress direction) reverse fault with small component of left-lateral strike slip in the lower crust. The Son-Narmada-Tapti (SONATA) magalineament, during the past two centuries, has experienced about 25 moderate to strong earthquakes; two of which namely the Son Valley (1927, M 6.5) and Jabalpur (21 May 1997) were disastrous. Historical earthquakes and recent earthquake swarms indicate a moderate to high seismicity in SONATA belt that is due to high strain accumulation, flexuring of the crust and neotectonic movements of the faults in the rift zones. By analyzing geophysical parameters such as Zero-Free air-based (ZFb) gravity anomalies (∼ −10 to –30 mGals), heat flow values (45–47 mWm⁻²), magneto-telluric values (1- Ohm m), strain rate (1.5 × 10⁻⁸) and failure stress conditions, we identify plausible causative factors for the occurrence of lower crustal earthquake in this region Fluids, due to dehydration of serpentinite in the lower crust, are suggested to be present in the earthquake source zone. The estimated pore-fluid factor for the Jabalpur earthquake (λ _v ) is 0.95. The diffusion of pore-pressure relaxation, represented as pressure perturbation generated by coseismic stress change was seen in the form of swarm activity two years prior to the Jabalpur earthquake. We suggest the existence of a deep pre-fractured zone with low shear stress (τ = 15–18 MPa) that indicates the presence of fluid filled fractured mafic material in the felsic crust, in critical state of unstable failure condition, and also fluid driven migration of swarm activity before the Jabalpur earthquake.