Coping with the 1996 Tornado in Tangail,Bangladesh: An Analysis of Field Data

On May 13, 1996, a disastrous tornado hit the Tangail district of Bangladesh, killing more than 700 people and causing extensive damage to homes, crops, and livestock. This paper explores and analyzes how tornado victims adjusted to this destruction. Data collected from two study sites show that victims received emergency assistance from people both in neighboring areas and from more distant areas, as well as from government agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). At both sites, NGOs played the leading role in minimizing the hardships of victims through extraordinary disaster relief and rehabilitation efforts. Because of the extensive support received, the tornado victims were able to return to their “normal” lives very quickly. This study concludes with several recommendations to help cope with future tornado disasters.     

Coping with the 1996 Tornado in Tangail,Bangladesh: An Analysis of Field Data

On May 13, 1996, a disastrous tornado hit the Tangail district of Bangladesh, killing more than 700 people and causing extensive damage to homes, crops, and livestock. This paper explores and analyzes how tornado victims adjusted to this destruction. Data collected from two study sites show that victims received emergency assistance from people both in neighboring areas and from more distant areas, as well as from government agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). At both sites, NGOs played the leading role in minimizing the hardships of victims through extraordinary disaster relief and rehabilitation efforts. Because of the extensive support received, the tornado victims were able to return to their “normal” lives very quickly. This study concludes with several recommendations to help cope with future tornado disasters.     

Bangladeshi American Response to the 1998 Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA): An Assessment*

Following the devastating flood in 1998, the U.S. government proposed a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) to the Bangladesh government. Accepting the 1998 SOFA would have allowed entry of U.S. troops in Bangladesh without passports or visas and without requiring declaration of military hardware. This would have facilitated American forces support for relief operations and rehabilitation of disaster victims in the shortest possible time. Unfortunately, the Bangladesh government rejected the U.S. terms outlined in the 1998 proposal. A sample survey was conducted among Bangladeshi Americans to examine their opinions regarding the 1998 SOFA. Survey data reveals that slightly over 58 percent of the respondents supported signing the SOFA. Reasons for their support or opposition to the U.S. proposal are also presented. Statistical analyses suggest that whether respondents have studied or are currently studying in the United States emerged as the most significant factor associated with approval or disapproval of the 1998 SOFA. Implications of the study findings are also discussed.     

Coping mechanisms practised by drought victims (1994/5) in North Bengal, Bangladesh

Droughts are recurrent features in Bangladesh, affecting plant growth and leading to loss of crop production, food shortages and, for many people, starvation. The main objective of this study is to examine the means by which residents of a drought-affected area of Bangladesh cope with this hazard. Data were collected during the summer of 1995 from 301 drought-affected households located in northwestern Bangladesh. Analysis suggests that respondent households practised an array of adjustments to mitigate adverse effects of the 1994/5 drought. While both high- and low-income households were affected by the drought, households belonging to the lower socioeconomic group suffered the most, receiving the least support from the national government. Government responses were delayed and inadequate in providing financial and other assistance to the drought victims. It is suggested that the government should be prepared for drought long before the occurrence of such an event.     

河南省自然灾害监测与评估信息系统研究

文章介绍了河南省自然灾害监测与评估信息系统的系统目标、整体设计和数据库的建立,整个系统由重大灾害监测预警、黄河下游洪水预报、淮河上游洪灾监测评估、快速反应、防灾减灾决策等子系统组成,子系统通过一定的数据接口,集成为一体化的系统,实现无准备地区突发性重大灾害的监测和应急评估,并及时为政府提供完整的减灾预案和灾害应急预案。     

南疆近60年来洪灾时空变化特征分析

对南疆洪灾时空变化特征进行深入分析。结果表明:①南疆洪灾,在20世纪50~70年代发生频次较低,自1980年开始显著上升。洪灾年内主要集中在3~9月,其中7月频次最多为7.8次。春季发生融雪型洪灾,夏季以暴雨洪灾和暴雨融雪型洪灾为主。②阿克苏和喀什是南疆洪灾频次最多,暴雨洪灾持续时间最长的地区,巴州是暴雨洪灾频次及持续时间增长速度最快的地区。③阿克苏和喀什属于重洪灾区、巴州属于中洪灾区、克州与和田属于轻洪灾区。④洪灾损失随着工农业生产总值的增长而增加,而且增长速度比经济增长速度快,建议加大防洪投入力度,建设控制性水利工程。     

Factors Affecting Evacuation Behavior: The Case of 2007 Cyclone Sidr,Bangladesh

Cyclone Sidr, a Category 4 storm, struck the southwestern coast of Bangladesh on 15 November 2007. Despite early cyclone warnings and emergency evacuation orders for coastal residents, thousands of individuals stayed in their homes. This study examines Sidr victims’ responses to cyclone warnings and evacuation orders, and explores the factors that would explain why the victims did or did not comply with the orders. Based on survey data collected from 277 Sidr survivors living in the four most severely impacted coastal districts, this study found that more than 75 percent of all respondents were aware of the cyclone warnings and evacuation orders before Sidr's landfall. Despite the efforts of the Bangladesh government, there were lapses in cyclone warnings and evacuation procedures. Field data also reveal several reasons cited by respondents for not complying with evacuation orders. Multivariate analyses of survey data show that trust in warning messages was the most important determinant in the decision to seek refuge in safer shelters, followed by distance to nearest shelter and annual level of education. Several recommendations have been made to improve cyclone warnings and the use of public shelters for similar future events.     

Distant voices: the views of the field workers of NGOs in Bangladesh on microcredit

Recently, microcredit has become a fashionable cure-all for most non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in Bangladesh. The provision of services to the poor is by definition always difficult, and even NGOs have problems. NGOs in Bangladesh define the poor in different ways when creating their target groups. The policies of nearly all NGOs in Bangladesh are formulated by their senior managers, and field workers are rarely consulted. This paper will explore the opinions on microcredit of selected field workers of four types of NGOs in Bangladesh – on how the problem of microcredit might be solved. Problems of microcredit programmes, they say, include non-accessibility to the poorest, low return, misuse and overemphasis on repayment. Field workers discuss what level of importance should be given to microcredit as against services like education, health or awareness creation. Most conclude that NGOs are overemphasizing microcredit, which leaves little time and few resources for other problems of the poor, so bringing the whole 'development' effort of the NGOs into question. Most field workers think that many microenterprises are not sustainable and that in many cases clients will remain dependent on the NGOs for credit.     

Mapping urban risk: Flood hazards,race, & environmental justice in New York

This paper demonstrates the importance of disaggregating population data aggregated by census tracts or other units, for more realistic population distribution/location. A newly developed mapping method, the Cadastral-based Expert Dasymetric System (CEDS), calculates population in hyper-heterogeneous urban areas better than traditional mapping techniques. A case study estimating population potentially impacted by flood hazard in New York City compares the impacted population determined by CEDS with that derived by centroid-containment method and filtered areal-weighting interpolation. Compared to CEDS, 37% and 72% fewer people are estimated to be at risk from floods city-wide, using conventional areal weighting of census data, and centroid-containment selection, respectively. Undercounting of impacted population could have serious implications for emergency management and disaster planning. Ethnic/racial populations are also spatially disaggregated to determine any environmental justice impacts with flood risk. Minorities are disproportionately undercounted using traditional methods. Underestimating more vulnerable sub-populations impairs preparedness and relief efforts.     

县域尺度下的陕西省洪涝灾害风险评估及区划

洪涝灾害风险评估和区划研究对区域洪灾综合管理具有重要意义。以陕西省洪涝灾害气候背景和社会经济环境为基础,利用辖区内34个气象测站1954-2015年、月降水数据和2015年社会经济统计资料,运用自然灾害风险评估理论及方法,从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性、承灾体暴露性和防灾减灾能力4个子系统选取17个评价指标,建立洪涝灾害风险评价指标体系,借助GIS技术进行洪涝灾害风险评估和区划。结果表明：（1）陕西省洪涝灾害致灾因子危险性等级自北向南呈递增趋势,高和次高危险区分布在陕南地区和关中盆地西部。（2）孕灾环境脆弱性空间分布差异较大,高和次高脆弱区分布在榆林北部长城沿线各县、延安市区、关中盆地渭河沿岸主要区县、陕南汉中盆地和安康市区。（3）承灾体暴露性各区县分布不均,大部分市区和农业发达地区暴露程度较高。（4）城市和经济发达地区防灾减灾能力较高,其他地区相对较低。（5）陕西省洪涝灾害综合风险等级表征为陕南汉江谷地、丹江流域和关中盆地渭河沿岸区县偏高,其他区县相对偏低。总体来看,中等以上风险区县占陕西省所辖区县的61.54%,其中陕南汉江谷地、丹江流域、关中盆地西部和渭南市应为陕西省洪涝灾害防范的重点区域。     

洪涝灾害风险监测预警评估综述

随着全球气候变暖,洪涝灾害愈加频繁,灾害风险监测预警评估作为防灾减灾的重要基础成为当前灾害学研究的核心内容之一。本文在总结国内外灾害研究和应用的基础上,阐述了洪涝灾害风险监测预警评估的概念、 内容、评估的基本思路和监测预警的技术方法。本文提出：①应结合中国实际,加强洪涝灾害的基础研究,深入机理层面探索洪涝灾害的孕育、发生机制,以及减少洪涝危险性和承灾体脆弱性分析的不确定性。②以研究技术手段的进步促进洪涝灾害风险监测预警评估的发展,改进传感器性能,提高监测精度;综合多源遥感和各种基础数据;进一步发展“3S”集成技术。     

基于多智能体的洪涝风险动态评估理论模型

随着全球气候变化的加剧和城市化进程的快速发展,洪涝灾害的影响和复杂性日益加剧。洪涝灾害风险评估是一项复杂的系统工程,在防洪减灾工程理论与实践中具有重要意义;作为洪涝灾害风险管理和应急处置的基础和核心,风险评估模型直接影响洪涝灾害风险评估结果的可靠性。洪涝灾害风险是洪涝灾害复杂系统组成部分相互作用的结果,综合考虑洪涝灾害系统的特点以及智能体建模的优势,提出了一种基于多智能体的洪涝风险动态评估理论模型。首先从复杂系统建模的角度出发,对洪涝灾害复杂系统进行分析建模,构建基于多智能体的洪涝灾害风险动态评估框架模型;其次,对所构建的框架模型中单个智能体模型进行研究,分别建立基于反应型的孕灾环境智能体模型和基于慎思型的致灾因子、承灾体和风险分析智能体模型,并对以上单个智能体的流程进行研究;然后以风险分析智能体联盟为例对模型框架中所涉及到4类智能体联盟的内部结构和流程进行分析,对构建的框架模型中涉及到的智能体通信协调和作用规则进行探讨;最后,在Netlogo平台上,基于30 m DEM数据和构建的模型,对淮河流域的暴雨型洪涝孕育发生发展全过程的人口风险进行动态评估。结果表明,构建的模型能有效评估洪涝灾害全过程中人口风险的动态。研究结果对洪涝灾害人口灾情评估、应急救助和应急管理都具有较强的指导意义。     

新疆不同区域洪灾受灾面积变化趋势及多尺度分析

选用新疆1950-2006 年84 个县2038 份洪水灾害资料, 采用灰色关联评估模型以县为单位将新疆分为重洪灾区、次重洪灾区、一般洪灾区、小洪灾区、微洪灾区。采用自回归滑 动平均模型ARMA (p, q) 与二阶主值函数分析受灾面积的长期变化趋势, 并用morlet 小波 分析其振荡周期发现, 全疆及各区洪灾受灾面积基本上存在12~15a 的周期变化, 1980 年代之后处于气候背景上的年代际与年际尺度的洪灾频发振荡期, 7~8a、2~3a 的小周期振荡叠加比较频繁。从新疆洪灾变化趋势上说, 前景不容乐观, 因为总体上洪灾受灾面积呈现显著的增加趋势, 目前各洪灾区仍处于频繁发生期的气候变化背景中。天山南北麓洪灾受灾面积的 分布趋势和周期振荡对新疆洪灾受灾面积的年际变化趋势和周期振荡起了决定性作用, 是增加防洪设施和防洪力度的重点地区。另外, 一般洪灾区2000 年以来对全疆洪水受灾面的影响也较大, 而且未来无论从短中长周期变化都有增加趋势。     

基于PGIS的社区洪涝灾害概率风险评估——以福建省泰宁县城区为例

以福建泰宁县城区为例,基于PGIS 和概率（情景）风险分析方法,开展社区尺度的洪涝灾害风险研究。利用1949-2011年13 次历史洪灾资料,计算了洪水的强度-超越概率,得出大于洪峰流量2929.18 m³/s 和洪峰水位281.50 m的年超越概率为1.6%。在此情景下,县城淹没面积达1.3 km²（占总面积31.0%）,最大淹没深度超过3.5 m,最长淹没时间超过10小时,共有1846 幢建筑物（占全部建筑的42.2%）受影响。分别针对受灾区域房屋建筑、住宅室内财产和商户室内财产,建立灾损方程,评估损失价值,并绘制灾损地图。结果表明,洪涝灾害对社区造成的影响显著,有必要制定应急预案,建立早期预警等进行防灾降险。     

基于FloodArea模型的暴雨洪涝灾害风险预评估技术及效果检验北大核心CSCD

利用陕西气象站点逐小时降水实况、精细化格点预报、数字高程、土地利用、灾情等资料,应用水动力模型FloodArea对暴雨洪涝进行淹没模拟,在淹没水深和范围的基础上叠置承灾体属性,引入承灾体的灾损曲线,建立暴雨洪涝灾害风险预评估模型,并从数量占比和灾情占比两个角度,以县为单元进行验证,利用格点降水量预报对陕西6次大范围暴雨过程灾害风险进行预评估以及效果检验。结果表明:暴雨洪涝气象风险预估结果与实际受灾地区分布基本吻合,正确预报率73.2%,模拟结果可信度高,对于降水区域集中暴雨的风险预评估性能较分散性暴雨较高,漏报率相对低,但是空报率较高;建立的暴雨洪涝灾害风险预评估及效果检验流程,提高了气象服务的针对性,可以用于洪涝风险预评估的实际业务中,对暴雨洪涝风险管理提供技术支撑。     

新疆大风灾害灾度和危险度分析

对新疆1980年到2000年的大风灾害信息和各地区县、市的统计年鉴及105个气象站53 a的资料进行分析。新疆的大风灾害事件多出现在夏季的5月和6月,这时候也正是新疆大风最多的时节。灾度分析得出新疆大风灾害均为轻灾,救灾以县级为主;并且各地区出现的最大灾度跟各地区出现的大风灾害事件的次数大体上一致,只有石河子市、巴州地区出现了不一致的现象。危险度分析得出,新疆没有极重度危险地区,大部分属于中度危险地区。通过对新疆的大风灾害的灾度和危险度分析,发现两种方法的分析结果存在差异并加以讨论,为各地州、县、市政府管理部门提供防治大风灾害的参考依据。     

基于复杂性测度的中国洪灾受灾面积变化研究

采用复杂性测度方法来进行中国洪涝灾害受灾面积变化的研究。结果表明:(1) 20世纪80、90年代中国洪灾受灾面积及其复杂度均持续上升,说明洪灾剧烈,而且复杂多变、不确定性增加;进入21世纪,两者趋缓或下降,即中国洪涝灾害有所缓解;(2) 从分省区的结果来看,洪灾受灾面积的未来趋势具有区域特征,主要可划分为两个加剧的区域和两个减缓的区域;全国各省市区依据受灾面积趋势可划分为4个等级,在此基础上给出中国的未来洪灾受灾面积趋势图。     

基于ArcGIS的渭河下游洪水淹没面积的计算

计算洪水淹没面积一直是灾害评估研究中的一个热点问题以GIS技术为基础,运用Arc-GIS软件的特殊功能,以渭河为研究背景实现了无需编程即可完成对洪水淹没面积的提取及计算。在地形图数字化基础上,分别对有源淹没和无源淹没进行分析,并运用ArcMap和ArcView软件自身的功能,对洪水淹没面积进行统计计算,并以2003年渭河下游洪水淹没数据为依据进行对比验证,取得了良好的效果。     

‘98洪涝灾害的深层次原因系统分析

１９９８年６月～１９９８年９月长江流域发生特大洪灾,以高水迎峰,上压下顶,峰急水猛,时长量大为特征,百万军民齐心协力,坚持到底,夺取了抗洪救灾斗争的决定性胜利。分析洪灾形成的主要原因,除气候反常、降雨集中等自然因素外,也存在水土流失,植被减少,围湖造田,河道淤积,水利工程失修、老化,法制观念淡薄,投入问题尖锐,承灾功能脆弱,人口急剧增长,协调失误等深层次的问题。对此作系统分析,以期能供决策部门在以后抗洪救灾中参考,对职能部门起到咨询作用     

千河流域近540 a来旱涝灾害变化规律研究

 通过收集整理千河流域1470-2009年旱涝灾害资料,结合滑动平均、累积距平,以及小波变换处理等方法,分析了千河流域近540 a来旱涝灾害变化规律。研究结果表明:千河流域旱涝灾害交替频繁,具有明显阶段性与周期性规律。通过11 a滑动平均和累积距平分析,可以将千河流域历史旱涝灾害分为3个阶段,在此基础上,又可分为7个明显的偏旱或偏涝时期。另外,由小波分析得出,千河流域近540 a来的旱涝灾害具有明显的周期变化,并且与太阳活动周期有着密切的联系。而且千河流域历史旱涝灾害的发生与我国西北地区,尤其是关中地区旱涝灾害发生规律具有明显的相关性。这对了解千河流域旱涝灾害发生规律和制订防灾减灾措施等具有重要的现实意义。