内嵌空间聚类算法的分区地理元胞自动机建模与应用

传统的地理元胞自动机(Geo-Cellular Automata;GeoCA)模型,大多采用统一的转换规则驱动元胞空间内的所有元胞进行演变。然而,许多地理现象都存在着空间异质性,统一的元胞转换规则忽略了空间异质性的存在。针对这一问题,本文提出了空间聚类的分区地理元胞自动机模型,采用空间聚类算法对元胞空间进行分区,对不同的分区分别求取转换规则,以此来提高地理元胞自动机的模拟精度。以杭州市为案例区,采用本文提出的空间聚类的分区地理元胞自动机模型,对研究区2000-2005年的城市用地变化进行了模拟。结果表明:与采用统一转换规则的GeoCA相比,引入空间聚类算法的分区GeoCA具有较高的模拟精度,尤其是在空间形态和整体结构上,具有较好的模拟效果。     

基于CA模型的佛山市建设用地动态变化研究

元胞自动机具有能模拟复杂动态系统的强大能力,本文采用了多约束条件的元胞自动机模型,以广东佛山市2000年、2006年和2012年建设用地的变化为例,从自然、社会经济发展等方面综合考虑选取了高程、坡度、人口密度、道路交通、水系等对城市建设用地发展变化起决定作用的诸多因子,利用马尔科夫概率矩阵计算2000年~2006年建设用地变化,推算建设用地转移总量。结合Logistic-CA模型和决策树-CA模型,预测模拟了2012年的建设用地分布并与实际相比较,分析其整体精度和误差来源。结果显示基于CA模型的建设用地动态发展模拟具有良好的效果,可以为城市的发展规划,过程演变提供虚拟的实验手段和科学依据。     

福州城市用地变化的CA模型动态模拟研究

城市用地变化是一种时空动态变化的复杂地理过程,如何有效地模拟这一过程是该研究领域的一个重要问题,在诸多模拟模型中元胞自动机具有明显优越性。本研究根据福州市1988年TM影像和2001、2004年ASTER影像提取城市用地信息,运用元胞自动机对未来20年城市用地变化进行模拟,并用2004年ASTER影像进行验证,结果表明:用元胞自动机对福州城市用地扩展的模拟达到较高的精度,未来20年内扩展平均速度将达7km²/年,远大于规划速度,扩展的主导方向为南部的南台岛,另一个重要扩展因素是乡村城市化加强,与此同时城市绿地不断被蚕食而减少。     

基于元胞自动机模型的河道汇流过程模拟

对河道汇流过程进行模拟可为洪水灾害预警预报提供参考。利用水力水文学方法能很好地模拟河道汇流过程,但需要输入的参数多,运算过程复杂,对数据精度要求高,而且在无资料区流域无法确定河道上断面流量情况下,该方法具有一定局限性。本文将元胞自动机模型与水文模型相结合,构建了河道汇流过程中的元胞自动机模型和产流汇流规则。通过建立河道坡面拓扑关系,利用SCS-CN（Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number）模型逐个计算河道元胞上的坡面入流,并利用曼宁方程模拟河道汇流过程,最后在ArcEngine平台下进行二次开发,实现了河道汇流可视化。本文以厦门市茂林溪流域为研究区,对1997年5月6日至7日的一场降雨进行了模拟。将本文模拟结果与该流域其他学者的研究进行了对比分析,结果表明在输入数据与水文模型参数相同的情况下,本文不仅模拟出每次降雨间隔产生的较小洪峰,并且整场降雨产生的最大洪峰流量精度与时间精度均提高了5倍,可以更准确地模拟河道汇流过程,适用于河道汇流可视化,该模拟可以为洪水灾害预警预报提供一定参考。     

基于ANN-CA模型的土壤侵蚀时空演化分析

土壤侵蚀是中国乃至世界的主要环境问题之一。到目前为止,应用于土壤侵蚀研究的模型仅仅能够做一些事后的预报,并不能实现真正意义的土壤侵蚀预报,更不能反映土壤侵蚀的时空演化规律。本研究利用元胞自动机强大的空间动态模拟功能,建立了土壤侵蚀的元胞自动机模型,实现了对研究区2010年土壤侵蚀类型的空间预测,从微观的元胞状态的变化,反映了研究区土壤侵蚀的宏观变化规律。利用2000年计算出的土壤侵蚀强度类型与模拟的2000年土壤侵蚀强度类型对比,评价了土壤侵蚀强度预测的准确率,并对准确率相对较低的类型分析了原因,增加各个土壤侵蚀类型的训练样本,改进土壤侵蚀强度类型的分类标准,将大大提高ANN- CA模型的精度。同时指出,本研究建立的模型可以推广到其他土壤侵蚀区的预测研究。     

基于立体网格的放射性污染物扩散过程模拟与表达

针对放射性污染物的扩散过程表达问题,设计了适用于该方法的状态建模与面向对象建模混合的数据模型,该模型支持真三维的网格化表达与元胞机推演,可以将传统放射性污染物的计算与表达结合在一起,数据不需要多次转换与重采样,降低了精度和效率的损失。通过两个实验,分别针对单源和多源放射性污染物的大气扩散过程进行了模拟,扩散模拟的结果符合放射性污染物扩散的客观规律,整个扩散表达过程中任意一个时刻、截面或者空间的污染物浓度都可以动态地计算和表达,过程具有非常好的直观性和可分析性。     

网络化地理空间的元胞自动机群体时空格局仿真模型研究

计算机网络的出现,显著地改变了地理空间的相关性。在网络化地理空间中,相关事件、现象、消息的特定网络信息流达到一定程度时,可能引发并塑造群体的特定时空分布格局。因此,针对网络化地理空间特性,基于元胞自动机模型,构建了网络化地理空间元胞自动机仿真模型。仿真实验结果表明：(1) 网络化地理空间中,元胞群体意见存在5种分布;(2) 元胞在空间上呈现出聚集的时空分布格局。研究结果将有助于理解网络化地理空间中针对特定事件、现象、消息的信息流对群体时空分布格局的影响,为网络环境下特定事件、现象的群体时空分布格局分析提供依据。     

元胞自动机(CA)模型在土地利用领域的研究综述

通过模型对区域土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)进行分析已经成为了当前全球的研究主要内容之一。元胞自动机(CA)模型是一种通过定义局部的简单的计算规则来模拟和表示整个系统中复杂现象的时空动态模型,其"自下而上"的研究思路,强大的复杂计算功能及高度动态,使得它在模拟空间复杂系统的时空动态演变方面具有很强的能力。CA模型通过与其他模型相结合,在综合考虑各种限制因素和转换规则的前提下,通过反复迭代综合空间分析与非空间分析,模拟土地利用变化情景,在国内外已经形成了较为成熟的研究模型。本文首先提出了CA模型在土地利用变化中应用的背景及其特点;然后,分析了CA模型的构成原理以及在国内外的应用进展与现状;最后,详细阐述了CA模型在土地利用变化中的发展趋势及今后研究工作中应注意的问题。     

基于Agent和CA的城市土地利用变化研究

分析了元胞自动机在土地利用变化研究的基础上,将Agent引进元胞自动机模型中,在元胞自动机模拟土地利用变化自然性、连续性规律的基础上,将Agent的人为性、不确定性加入到模型模拟中,对CA模型中以随机数体现的不确定性通过Agent给予地理意义的解释,并以城市郊区--樟木头镇为例,对1988-1993年间城市用地变化进行了模拟研究,得到了良好的模拟精度,模拟结果符合土地利用变化的自然性、人文性特征。     

城市形态演化的粒子群智能随机元胞模型与应用——以上海市嘉定区为例

城市形态演化是一个非线性的复杂时空动态过程,认识、理解和模拟此变化过程,有助于探索城市扩展的机理。地理元胞自动机(CA)因其较强的复杂系统模拟和预测能力,越来越多地应用于城市形态的演变研究。CA"自下而上"的结构特性,与粒子群智能(PSO)由底层单元交互而呈现系统全局的自组织性,本质上是一致的。本研究将两者结合,以模拟结果和真实形态的差异最小化为基础,利用粒子群智能,以快速随机搜索的方式,获取CA参数的优化组合和模型结构,从而建立了一种粒子群智能地理元胞自动机模型(PSO-CA)。以上海市嘉定区为案例,通过较长时段的历史数据对PSO-CA模型进行校正,成功模拟了该区域1989-2006年的城市形态演化过程,并进行了2010年发展预测。与传统地理CA模型比较,PSO-CA模型模拟结果的精度更高。     

重庆市空气污染预报

本文通过分析近十年来冬季的污染监测资料,TSP与气系条件的关系,提炼出影响大气污染物扩散的若干气象、污染因子,建立了以TSP为预报对象的多元回归预报方程和自回归预报方程,制作污染浓度预报,获得了满意的结果。     

Numerical simulation of the transport and diffusion of dissolved pollutants in the changjiang (Yangtze) river estuary

Based on a coupled hydrodynamic-ecological model for regional and shelf seas (COHERENS), a three-dimensional baroclinic model for the Changjiang (Yangtze) River estuary and the adjacent sea area was established using the sigma-coordinate in the vertical direction and spherical coordinate in the horizontal direction. In the study, changing-grid technology and the “dry-wet” method were designed to deal with the moving boundary. The minimum water depth limit condition was introduced for numerical simulation stability and to avoid producing negative depths in the shallow water areas. Using the Eulerian transport approaches included in COHERENS for the advection and dispersion of dissolved pollutants, numerical simulation of dissolved pollutant transport and diffusion in the Changjiang River estuary were carried out. The mass centre track of dissolved pollutants released from outlets in the south branch of the Changjiang River estuary water course has the characteristic of reverse current motion in the inner water course and clockwise motion offshore. In the transition area, water transport is a combination of the two types of motion. In a sewage-discharge numerical experiment, it is found that there are mainly two kinds of pollution distribution forms: one is a single nuclear structure and the other is a double nuclear (dinuclear) structure in the turbid zone of the Changjiang River estuary. The rate of expansion of the dissolved pollutant distribution decreased gradually. The results of the numerical experiment indicate that the maximum turbid zone of the Changjiang River estuary is also the zone enriched with pollutants. Backward pollutant flow occurs in the north branch of the estuary, which is similar to the backward salt water flow, and the backward flow of pollutants released upstream is more obvious.     

Stability analysis of an unsaturated soil slope considering rainfall infiltration based on the Green-Ampt model

Based on the principle of saturated infiltration and the Green-Ampt model, an unsaturated infiltration model for a soil slope surface was established for either constant moisture content, or depth-varying moisture content and the slope. Infiltration parameters in the partially saturated slope were revealed under sustained rainfall. Through analysis of the variation of initial moisture content in the slope, the ponding time, infiltration depth, and infiltration rate were deduced for an unsaturated soil slope subject to rainfall infiltration. There is no ponded water on the surface of the slope under sustained low-intensity rainfall. The results show that the infiltration parameters of an unsaturated slope are influenced by the initial moisture content and the wetting front saturation, the soil cohesion and rainfall intensity under sustained rainfall. More short-term slope failures can occur with the decrease of cohesion of the soil of the slope. The ponding time and infiltration depth differ considering constant or different initial moisture content respectively in the soil slope. Then, best-fit curves of the infiltration rate, ponding time, and infiltration depth to the wetting front saturation were obtained with constant or different initial moisture contents. And the slope failure time is roughly uniform when subject to a rainfall intensity I5 mm/h.     

基于物理模型试验的杆塔基础滑坡防护措施效果研究

大量穿越山地丘陵区的高压输电线路杆塔基础常位于滑坡灾害高易发斜坡地段, 施加适当防护措施提高其稳定性, 是保障输电线路持续安全运行的关键。为研究不同防护措施对杆塔基础滑坡的防护效果, 以湖北省巴东县燕子滑坡为地质原型, 设计制作物理试验模型, 分别开展了极端降雨条件下滑坡在无防护、施加抗滑桩与格构护坡时的物理模型试验, 从试验角度揭示了滑坡变形破坏特征与不同防护措施的防护效果。试验结果表明: 在2种极端降雨工况(50, 100 mm/h)下, 无防护的滑坡体历经了坡表冲刷、裂缝扩展、局部垮塌变形与整体滑动的演化过程; 抗滑桩措施对滑坡整体的防护效果显著, 滑坡整体处于稳定状态, 杆塔基础变形较小, 杆塔倾斜率满足规范, 但坡表会出现冲刷垮塌现象; 格构护坡措施能有效减少坡面冲刷和坡脚垮塌风险, 但在持续强降雨条件下对杆塔基础的整体稳固作用稍弱。物理模型试验结果与滑坡历史变形和实际治理效果吻合, 试验结论可为类似杆塔基础滑坡的破坏机理研究与防护工程设计提供借鉴。      

Field experiment of rainfall infiltration on a soil slope and simulations based on a water-air two-phase flow model

Rainfall infiltration on a soil slope is usually an unsaturated seepage process that can be described by a water-air two-phase flow model. The effect of pore air pressure on rainfall infiltration has been widely recognized and validated by means of numerical simulations and laboratory experiments. However, whether a slope can actually seal pore air continues to be debated by researchers. In this study, a water-air two-phase flow model is used to simulate the rainfall infiltration process on a soil slope, and a field experiment is conducted to realistically test the sealing conditions of a slope. According to the numerical simulation, the areas of water and air flow in and out on the slope surface are relatively stable and can be classified as the "inhalation zone" and "overflow zone", respectively. Intermittent rainfall on the soil slope has an amplifying effect on pore air pressure because rainfall intensity is usually at the millimeter level, and it causes pore air pressure to reach the cm level. A field experiment was performed to determine whether a slope can realistically seal pore air and subsequently verify the regularity of rainfall infiltration. Air pressure sensors were buried in the slope to monitor the pore air pressures during the rainfall process. The monitoring results show that the pore air pressure in the slope changed, which indicates that the slope can seal air. Moreover, the amplification effects of intermittent rainfall on pore air pressure were observed for natural rainfall, which agrees well with the numerical simulation results.     

Early warning model for slope debris flow initiation

Early warning model of debris flow is important for providing local residents with reliable and accurate warning information to escape from debris flow hazards. This research studied the debris flow initiation in the Yindongzi gully in Dujiangyan City, Sichuan province, China with scaled-down model experiments. We set rainfall intensity and slope angle as dominating parameters and carried out 20 scaled-down model tests under artificial rainfall conditions. The experiments set four slope angles(32°, 34°, 37°, 42°) and five rainfall intensities(60 mm/h, 90 mm/h, 120 mm/h, 150 mm/h, and 180 mm/h) treatments. The characteristic variables in the experiments, such as, rainfall duration, pore water pressure, moisture content, surface inclination, and volume were monitored. The experimental results revealed the failure mode of loose slope material and the process of slope debris flow initiation, as well as the relationship between the surface deformation and the physical parameters of experimental model. A traditional rainfall intensity-duration early warning model(I-D model) was firstly established by using a mathematical regression analysis, and it was then improved into ISD model and ISM model(Here, I is rainfall Intensity, S is Slope angle, D is rainfall Duration, and M is Moisture content). The warning model can provide reliable early warning of slope debris flow initiation.     

葫芦岛市空气质量分析及其与暴雨的关系

针对暴雨对空气质量的影响的问题,结合葫芦岛市环境监测中心站2010年市区空气质量逐日监测资料与葫芦岛市气象局气象观测资料,采用空气污染指数和空气质量指数法,分析了葫芦岛市空气质量时间分布特征及其与暴雨的关系。结果表明,在影响葫芦岛市空气质量的主要3种污染物——二氧化硫(SO2)、二氧化氮(NO2)和可吸入颗粒物(PM10)中PM10为首要污染物;3种污染物变化趋势基本一致,都是夏季污染最轻,冬季污染最重,春秋两季居中;暴雨与污染物浓度变化有着密切的关系,4次暴雨过程所在日3种污染物浓度都较低,且在强降水过后第一天污染物浓度继续降低。     

基于模型试验的动水驱动型顺层岩质滑坡启滑机制初探

动水驱动型顺层岩质滑坡数量多、灾害频发、危害大, 是滑坡地质灾害领域的研究重点, 但目前对于滑坡启滑机制的认识仍不充分, 滑坡的准确预报还面临巨大挑战。鉴于此, 以含软弱夹层的中倾角顺层岩质滑坡为研究对象, 通过构建理想的单层滑带滑坡物理模型, 开展了一系列动水作用下的滑坡模型试验研究。结果表明, 动水作用下顺层岩质滑坡从开始变形至失稳滑动需经历初始变形、缓慢变形、加速变形和失稳破坏4个阶段, 而各个阶段的演化特征与滑面粗糙度和倾角密切相关。滑面倾角越大或粗糙度越小, 滑坡体从开始变形至失稳滑动所需的时间则越短; 相应地, 坡体加速变形阶段越不明显, 滑坡破坏的突发性越强。滑带内的渗流冲蚀作用会使滑带土中的骨料流失, 导致其抗剪强度降低, 进而引发坡体滑动。与此同时, 上覆坡体的压剪作用以及变形演化过程亦将反过来影响冲蚀强度。基于滑带土黏聚力随水力梯度和冲蚀时间的变化关系, 提出了渗流驱动下滑带土黏聚力演化模型, 可较好地描述滑带土黏聚力的退化过程。滑面粗糙度的存在不仅显著影响了滑带的冲蚀劣化规律, 还改变了滑带不同区域的破坏模式。此外, 通过考虑滑面粗糙度对滑带不同区域破坏模式的影响, 开展了动水多效应关联分析, 建立了滑坡地质体力学分析模型, 实现了动水作用下顺层岩质滑坡动态稳定性的有效评估。本研究成果可为实际动水驱动型顺层岩质滑坡的预测和防治提供理论参考。      

Rolling motion behavior of rockfall on gentle slope: an experimental approach

The effects of slope surface material, slope gradient, block shape, and block mass conditions on rockfall rolling velocity were estimated with orthogonal test approach. Visual analysis shows that the importance of the factors is slope surface material > slope gradient > block shape > block mass. All the factors except block mass have the F value greater than the critical value, suggesting that these three factors are the key factors affecting the rockfall rolling velocity. Factor interaction analysis shows that the effect of the slope gradient relies largely on the slope surface conditions, and the block shape has little influence if the slope gradient is larger than a critical value. An empirical model considering the three key factors is proposed to estimate the rolling velocity, of which the error is limited to 5% of the testing value. This model is validated by 73 field tests, and the prediction shows excellent correlation with the site test. Thus, this analysis can be used as a tool in the rockfall behavior analysis.