Long-term earthquake prediction along the western coast of South and Central America based on a time predictable model

The repeat times,T, of strong shallow mainshocks in fourteen seismogenic sources along the western coast of South and Central America have been determined and used in an attempt at long-term forecasting. The following relation was determined: $$\log T = 0.22M_{\min } + 0.21M_p + a$$ between the repeat time,T, and the magnitudes,M _min, of the minimum mainshock considered andM _p , of the preceding mainshock. No dependence of the magnitude,M _f , of the following mainshock on the preceding intervent time,T, was found. These results support the idea that the time-predictable model is valid for this region. This is an interesting property for earthquake prediction since it provides the ability to predict the time of occurrence of the next strong earthquake. A strong negative dependence ofM _f onM _p was found, indicating that a large mainshock is followed by a smaller magnitude one, andvice versa. The probability for the occurrence of the expected strong mainshocks (M _s ≥7.5) in each of the fourteen seismogenic sources during the next 10 years (1992–2002) is estimated, adopting a lognormal distribution for earthquake interevent times. High probabilities (P ₁₀>0.80) have been calculated for the seismogenic sources of Oaxaca, Chiapas and Southern Peru.     

Mercury levels in coral reefs along the Caribbean coast of Central America

Sediment and coral skeleton samples from 23 coral reefs along the Caribbean coast of Costa Rica and Panama (1497 km) were evaluated for total mercury (Hg). High levels of pollution were found in the entire region with averages of 18.9 and 71.3 ppb in coral skeletons and sediments respectively. Significantly higher contamination was found in Panamanian corals (21.4 ppb) while compared to Costa Rican reef sediments (85.9 ppb). Hg from several processes and non-point sources (e.g., erosion, runoff, flooding, mining, overuse of agrochemicals, industrial waste, ports, and refineries) may have affected the entire region. The widespread observed distribution suggests that Hg is being carried along long distances within the region due to its high concentrations found in “pristine” reefs. Forest burning and colonial mining residues may be considered as possible contamination factors.     

Marine debris ingestion by Magellanic penguins, Spheniscus magellanicus (Aves: Sphenisciformes), from the Brazilian coastal zone

Magellanic penguins (Spheniscus magellanicus) are non-breeding winter visitors to the Brazilian coast. In 2008 and 2010, plastic items and other marine debris were found in the stomachs and intestines of 15% of 175 dead penguins collected in the Lagos Region of the state of Rio de Janeiro. One bird had its stomach perforated by a plastic straw, which may have caused its death. There are few records of penguins ingesting plastic litter, but previous studies have found similar levels of debris ingestion among Magellanic penguins stranded on the Brazilian coast (35.8% of 397 birds). The high incidence of marine debris in this species in Brazil may result at least in part from the predominance of juveniles reaching these waters, as juvenile penguins may have a broader diet than adults. It is unclear to what extent plastic ingestion affects the mortality rate in this species and whether the incidence in stranded birds reflects that in the entire population. The present study addresses the increasing impact of plastic debris on marine life.     

Estimates of vertical crustal movements along the coast of Greece,based on mean sea level data

Mean annual sea level (MASL) data for 25 Greek stations were analyzed for the time period 1969–1982. The data from 4 of these were unacceptably poor, and the record of 3 stations showed unexplained step functions that were interpreted as errors. Relative MASL between stations showed crustal stability at 10 of the 18 useful stations. The standard deviation from the long-term average of these stations was ±1.8 cm. We conclude that if station records are carefully kept in this area crustal movements in excess of 5 cm can be detected by relative MASL. A comparison of MASL data with gravity changes measured in the Peloponnese and Central Greece suggests that vertical movements occurred along a gradient equal to or larger than the free air gradient. We conclude that the gravity network should be reoccupied frequently such that the non-tectonic effects to be determined from the probable observed gravity changes, and the tectonic vertical movements may be better understood. A co-seismic subsidence of about 5 cm is inferred to have taken place near Korinth during the 1981,M _s =6.8, earthquake, which occurred 20 km N of this tide gauge (Posidonia). During 2.5 years before the 1968 Thessaloniki,M _s =6.6, earthquake, sea level was lower than average suggesting possible crustal elevation of 3.6 cm at about 28 km epicentral distance. Because of the small amplitude of this change we are not certain that it represents crustal uplift. At station Myrina (on Limnos) a strong and consistent trend of subsidence accumulated a 15 cm change between 1975 and 1980. Chios showed a trend of emergence (total accumulation about +5 cm), while Volos showed a trend of subsidence (approximately ?5 cm total). Kefalinia appears to have subsided about 10 cm during the data period. The six stations along the Hellenic arc plate boundary showed nearly constant MASL, suggesting that crustal stability existed there during the last 14 years. We conclude that MASL data in Greece can be useful for understanding tectonic processes, especially if these data are gathered carefully and at numerous locations, and are cross-correlated to high precision repeat gravity measurements, and geodetic releveling. Also, MASL data on active volcanic islands have excellent potential for detecting uplift before future eruptions.     

Recovery potential and chronic oil pollution on the South African coast

Observation of oiled sandy beaches showed the fate of oil released by a tanker collision. The amount of oil extracted depended on timing in the beach erosion and depositing cycle. The recovery of the beaches took about 8 months, but deteriorated again after the arrival of unaccounted oil batches. It is this unaccountable oil which is responsible for chronic oil pollution on the South African coast and possibly other beaches around the world.     

Long-term coastal erosion assessment along the coast of Karnataka,west coast of India

Coastal areas are always under frequent threat from various natural processes and man-induced activities. Coastal erosion is recognized as the permanent loss of land along the shoreline resulting in the transformation of the coast. The current study focuses on long-term coastal erosion analysis of the entire Karnataka coast using Remote Sensing, Geographical Information System (GIS), Linear Regression Rate (LRR), and End Point Rate (EPR) techniques. Analysis of 26 (1990 to 2016) years of erosion using Landsat images by the use of the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) tool has been done. The results show a high erosion rate at Ullal during this period (LRR -1.3m/yr) and accretion at Devbagh (LRR 3.2 m/yr). The southern Karnataka coast faces severe erosion especially at Ullal, where the settlement is high. At Thanirbhavi, Mukka, Kota, and Om Beaches erosion also is noticed. Both anthropogenic activities like ports, seawalls, breakwaters, etc. and natural processes like long shore drift, seasonal variation, etc. are factors affecting the shoreline change along the Karnataka coast.     

Crustal structure along the coast of California from Rayleigh waves

The dispersion curve of Rayleigh waves is obtained for the path San Fernando Valley-Berkeley, using the single-station surface wave method. The crustal model obtained from dispersion data is in excellent agreement with seismic refraction results. Dispersion data enable the rejection of one of the models previously proposed on the basis of refraction data.     

南海北部陆区岩石磁化率的矿物学研究

基于2517套现场测量资料,245块岩石样品的体积磁化率测量和详细的岩矿鉴定及硅酸盐全分析结果,结合单矿物磁化率特征及各岩石之间的对比研究,发现岩石磁化率主要受组成岩石的矿物磁化率控制.即岩石磁化率(κr)与组成岩石各个矿物磁化率(κi)及其体积含量(Ci)成正比.例如侵入岩磁化率,κr= -5.68×102Cq +2.86×102Cf +3.28×102Ca +1.18×104Cb +1.27×104Cam +5.35×105Cm;其中多项式各项的系数是与该矿物磁化率值成正比的常数,C为该矿物在该岩石中的体积含量,依次为石英q(κ=-1.3)、斜长石f(κ=0.01)、碱性长石a(κ=0.01)、黑云母b(κ=100)、角闪石am(κ=80)和磁铁矿m(κ=100000).对区内火山岩、侵入岩、沉积岩和变质岩磁化率研究发现,其他三类岩石磁化率与其组成矿物磁化率的关系和侵入岩的情况相同,矿物对岩石磁化率的贡献顺序为铁磁性矿物>顺磁性矿物>逆磁性矿物.其中,火成岩磁化率变化大,主要取决于岩石中磁铁矿、角闪石和黑云母的含量;沉积岩多为无磁性、弱磁性,其磁化率主要由黑云母、碱性长石及岩屑提供;变质岩的磁性变化较大,从无磁性到极强磁性,主要决定于其原岩的类型,副变质岩(沉积原岩)磁化率类似于沉积岩类,正变质岩(火成原岩)类似于火成岩类;石英岩和碳酸盐岩是所有岩石中磁性最弱的.岩石蚀变会对其磁化率产生显著性影响,通常,黑云母、角闪石等铁镁硅酸盐矿物经蚀变会因形成含铁质氧化物而使岩石的磁化率升高;长石等弱顺磁矿物的粘土矿化、绢云母化会升高磁化率而碳酸盐化、高岭土化作用会使磁化率降低;岩石的绿泥石化会增加磁化率;含铁磁性矿物的岩石风化时会因高磁性组分破碎、流失而致使岩石的磁化率降低.从岩石磁化率与其组成矿物的磁化率之间的关系,推测地质体的总磁化率与构成地质体各个岩石的磁化率-体积含量之间也应存在类似关系.     

A survey of imposex in muricids from 1996 to 2000 and identification of optimal indicators of tributyltin contamination along the east coast of Phuket Island,Thailand

The present investigation is the most extensive survey of imposex in gastropods from the west coast of Thailand. Imposex in Thais distinguenda increased significantly (p < 0.001; Chi Square test for trend) from 1996 to 2000 at 21 stations in Phangna Bay, Thailand. Females with imposex increased, extending from 3.5 km in 1996 to 10 km from the harbour areas in 1999 and 2000. Increasing intensity of imposex was also observed for Thais bitubercularis from 1996 to 2000. The less sensitive species: Morula musiva, Morula granulata, Morula margariticola and Thais rufotincta only developed imposex at the three main areas of intense shipping activities. T. bitubercularis and T. distinguenda are recommended as indicators of tributyltin (TBT) in Southeast Asia because of their sensitivity and wide distribution in the region. The results suggest that TBT contamination is worsening, against global trends, because regulations prohibiting the use of TBT-based paints, do not exist in Thailand.     

Model-based long-term reconstruction of weather-driven variations in chronic oil pollution along the German North Sea coast

Lagrangian passive tracer transport simulations covering the 46-year period 1958-2003 were utilized to compare the exposures of different parts of the German North Sea coast to ship-related chronic oil pollution. Assuming the spatial distribution of oil releases to be proportional to estimated ship traffic density, detailed drift reconstructions allowed for the reconstruction of wind-induced inter-annual variations in coastal pollution. For the winter months, a statistical relationship between simulated advective transports and prevailing sea surface pressure fields was established via Canonical Correlation Analysis. Wind effects were found to be more important for the northern (Schleswig-Holstein) than for the southern (Lower Saxony) part of the German North Sea coast. For Schleswig-Holstein, simulations showed consensus with beached bird survey data from this region. Proper identification of weather-driven inter-annual and spatial variations in monitoring data helps to avert misjudgments with regard to trends in the general level of chronic oil pollution.     

Evolution of sea-level trends along the Norwegian coast from 1960 to 2100

Ocean Dynamics - A first national analysis of the evolution of sea-level rates along the Norwegian coast for the period 1960–2100 has been accomplished by exploring tide-gauge records,...     

Spatial and temporal variability of phytoplankton and environmental factors in a temperate estuary of South America (Atlantic coast,Argentina)

A spatial and temporal study on data collected along the longitudinal gradient of the Principal Channel of Bahía Blanca estuary, Argentina, was carried out during 1992–1993. At nine stations, phytoplankton abundance, chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentration, inorganic nutrient levels, Secchi disk depth, euphotic depth:mixing depth ratio (Z_eu:Z_m), salinity and temperature were recorded. Phytoplankton abundance, Chl-a concentration and nutrient levels decreased towards the outer zone of the estuary. The inner zone (stations 1 and 2), which was characterized by high turbidity, high nutrient concentrations and high Z_eu:Z_m (>0.16, [critical mixing ratio]), registered the highest phytoplankton abundance and Chl-a concentrations. Temporal variability of data was also noteworthy in this zone. The highest biomass values thus corresponded to June, July, August and the beginning of spring (18 μg Chl-a L⁻¹ and 9×10⁶ cells L⁻¹) concomitantly with a diatom bloom. In the middle zone (stations 3–6), a strong phytoplankton biomass decrease was observed and it coincided with both deep-mixed depths and low Z_eu:Z_m (<0.16). The outer zone (stations 7–9), which was characterized by low phytoplankton biomass values and low nutrient levels all along the year, was the area mostly influenced by waters from the adjacent continental shelf. In view of the above, it can be concluded that the most important primary production in the Bahía Blanca would be produced in the shallow inner zone during winter, being the spatial reach of the phytoplankton biomass principally limited to estuarine waters. Presumably, less than 5% of such biomass may reach the coastal area of the estuary.     

Heavy metals in surface sediments from nine estuaries along the coast of Bohai Bay,Northern China

Concentrations of heavy metals in river water and sediment were investigated in nine estuaries along the coast of Bohai Bay, Northern China. Multivariate statistical techniques such as principal component analysis and cluster analysis, in combination with metal concentration analysis and correlation analysis, were used to identify the possible sources of the metals and the pollution pattern in nine estuaries along the coast of Bohai Bay. The environmental risks of metals, evaluated by sediment quality guidelines and background values, revealed Hg contamination in the estuaries. However, levels of Cd in estuarine sediments were low, and they were less than those levels in river sediments, partly due to the high mobility and dilution of river or seawater. Cd did not contribute to sediment deposits in estuaries. High organic matter from effluents from large municipal sewage treatment plants was predominantly responsible for restricting Hg mobility from the river to Bohai Bay.     

Removal fluxes of Mn and Fe from the nearshore waters along the west coast of Taiwan

Dissolved and particulate Mn and Fe in the nearshore waters were determined at 27 stations along the west coast of Taiwan during 19-23 November 2004. The latitudinal distributions of Mn and Fe were very similar; however, the concentration in the dissolved phase was lower, whereas that in the particulate phase was higher in the northern regime. The higher percentage of Fe than Mn that was associated with particles resulted in a two-order of magnitude higher particle-water partition coefficient for Fe, K_d(Fe), than that for Mn, K_d(Mn). The removal fluxes of Mn and Fe could be estimated by multiplying the particulate ²³⁴Th removal flux with the Mn/²³⁴Th and Fe/²³⁴Th ratios in suspended particles, which ranged from 0.1 to 3.8 mmol m⁻² d⁻¹ for Mn, and from 3.4 to 194.5 mmol m⁻² d⁻¹ for Fe. Residence times ranged from 1 to 20 days for Mn and Fe were estimated in the nearshore.     

Distribution of hydrocarbons in the oyster,Pinctada margaratifera,along the coast of Kuwait

Concentrations of total hydrocarbons within the boiling point range of the alkanes n-C₁₄ and n-C₃₂ were determined in oysters, Pinctada margaratifera, from coastal waters of Kuwait. Levels of petroleum-derived hydrocarbons were highest in an area adjacent to the major oil loading facilities. Whether the use of dispersants to treat minor spills increases levels of incorporation of petroleum compounds into the food webs could not be concluded from the data of this study. Levels of total petroleum-type hydrocarbons in the oysters at this site were equivalent to those in mussels, Mytilus sp., from harbours, bays and urban coastal areas of California. The Kuwaiti oysters lacked a C₂₈ pentacyclic triterpane that was present in extracts of mussels from southern California that had been recently exposed to a minor spill or to a natural seepage. Levels of DDE and PCB were comparable to those in relatively unpolluted areas of North America.     

A survey of antifoulants in sediments from Ports and Marinas along the French Mediterranean coast

Due to deleterious effects on non-target organisms, the use of organotin compounds on boat hulls of small vessels (<25 m) has been widely prohibited. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) resolved that the complete prohibition on organotin compounds acting as biocides in antifouling systems should commence in 2008. As a result of restrictions on the use of organotin based paints, other antifouling formulations containing organic biocides have been utilised. This survey was conducted to assess the contamination of replacement biocides in the marine environment following the ban of TBT-based paints. Surface sediments samples were collected in the major ports and marinas along the France Mediterranean coastline (Cote d’Azur) and analysed for organotin compounds, Irgarol 1051, Sea-nine 211^TM, Chlorothalonil, Dichlofluanid and Folpet. Every port and marina exhibited high levels of organotin compounds, with concentrations in sediments ranging from 37 ng Sn g⁻¹dry wt in Menton Garavan to over 4000 ng Sn g⁻¹dry wt close to the ship chandler within the port of Villefranche-sur-Mer. TBT degradation indexes suggested that fresh inputs are still made. Among the other antifoulants monitored, only Irgarol 1051 exhibited measurable concentrations in almost every port, with concentrations ranging from 40 ng g⁻¹dry wt (Cannes) to almost 700 ng g⁻¹dry wt (Villefranche-sur-Mer, ship chandler).     

Measurement and analysis of currents along the Danish west coast

Summary Current meter records from summer and late fall at three positions have been analyzed and related to sea level and wind data. Spectral analysis shows that the most energetic fluctuations are due to tides with an amplitude corresponding to 0.2 m/s. The variability is mainly in the alongshore direction for tidal and subtidal frequencies. The adjusted sea level, which is decreasing northwards, has the strongest response for winds from land in the wintertime. In the summer a balance between bottom friction and alongshore wind stress is found with a resistance coefficient of 0.1 cm/s, while a more complicated balance exists in the winter. The mean flow during summer is about 2 cm/s. For an estimated length scale of 170 km this corresponds to an alongshore transport of 0.15·10⁶m³/s (=0.15 Sv).

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Strömungsmessungen und-analysen entlang der Dänischen Westküste

Zusammenfassung Strömungsmessungen im Sommer und im Herbst an drei Positionen wurden analysiert und in Beziehung zum Wasserstand und Windfeld gesetzt. Wie die Spektralanalyse zeigt, sind die energiereichsten Fluktuationen gezeitenbedingt mit einer Amplitude von 0,2 m/s. Die Variabilität ist am größten bei den Gezeiten- und Subgezeitenfrequenzen längs der Küste. Der sich einstellende Wasserstand, welcher nach Norden hin abnimmt, reagiert am stärksten bei ablandigen Winden im Winter. Im Sommer findet man ein Gleichgewicht zwischen Bodenreibung und küstenparallelen Windschub mit einem Reibungskoeffizient von 0,1 cm/s. Im Winter hingegen ist die Situation wesentlich komplizierter. Die mittlere Strömungsgeschwindigkeit beträgt ca. 2 cm/s im Sommer, das entspricht einem Transport von 0,15·10⁶ m³/s (=0,15 Sv) bei einer geschätzten Längenskala von 170 km.

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Mesures et analyse de courants le long de la côte danoise occidentale

Résumé Des données obtenues par courantmètres durant l'été et fin automne à trois sites sont analysées et comparées au niveau de la mer et aux vents. Une analyse spectrale montre que les fluctuations les plus énergétiques, avec des amplitudes de l'ordre de 0,2 m/s, sont attribuables aux marées. Leur variabilité est concentrée dans la direction parallèle à la côte pour les fréquences de marées es au-dessous. Après ajustement, le niveau de la mer, qui decroît vers le nord, réagit le plus fortement aux vents d'hiver dirigés au large. Pendant l'été, un équilibre entre la friction sur le fond et le cisailement du vent le long de la côte est atteint pour un coefficient de résistance de 0,1 cm/s, alors qu'un équilibre plus compliqué s'établit durant l'hiver. Le courant moyen pendant l'été est de l'ordre de 2 cm/s. Avec une longueur d'échelle estimée à 170 km, ceci correspond à un transport de 0,15·10⁶ m³/s (=0,15 Sv) le long de la côte.

     

Caldera-scale inflation of the Lazufre volcanic area, South America: Evidence from InSAR

Collapsed calderas are the structural surface expression of the largest volcanic eruptions on Earth and may reach diameters of tens of kilometres while erupting volumes larger than 1000 km³. Remnants of collapse calderas can be found along the South American volcanic arc and are thought to be inactive. However, this study shows that systems of such dimension may become active in a relatively short period of time without attracting much attention. Using satellite-based InSAR data, a 45 km wide elongated area of ground deformation was observed in the Lazufre volcanic region (Chile), where no deformation was detected 10 years ago. The deformation signal shows an uplift of up to ~ 3 cm yr^− 1 during 2003–2006, affecting an area of about 1100 km², comparable in size to super-volcanoes such as Yellowstone or Long Valley. This deformation signal can be explained by an inflating magma body at about 10 km depth, expanding and propagating laterally at a velocity of up to 4 km per year. Although it is not clear whether this intrusion will lead to an eruption, its dimensions and the rapid deformation rate insinuate that a potentially large volcanic system is forming.     

美洲中南部西海岸长期地震预报的时间预测模型

本文对美洲中南部西海岸１４个孕震区的强震复发时间Ｔ进行了计算，并进行地震预报，提出在未来１０年内，利用对数正态分布对１４个孕震区的发震概率分别进行了计算，计算的高概率地区包括瓦哈卡，恰帕斯和秘鲁南部。