Saving lives in earthquakes: successes and failures in seismic protection since 1960

This paper will look at what we have and have not achieved in reducing the risks to human life from earthquakes in the last 50 years. It will review how success has been achieved in a few parts of the world, and consider what needs to be done by the scientific and engineering community globally to assist in the future task of bringing earthquake risks under control. The first part of the talk will re-examine what we know about the casualties from earthquakes in the last 50 years. Almost 80% of about 1 million deaths turn out to have been caused by just ten great earthquakes, together affecting a tiny proportion of the territory at risk from heavy ground shaking. The disparity between richer and poorer countries is also evident, not only in fatality rates, but also in their rates of change. But the existing casualty database turns out to be a very poor basis for observing such differences, not only because of the small number of lethal events, but also because of the very limited data on causes of death, types and causes of injury. These have been examined in detail in only a few, recent events. All that can be said with certainty is that a few wealthier earthquake-prone countries or regions have made impressive progress in reducing the risk of death from earthquakes, while most of the rest of the world has achieved comparatively little, and in some areas the problem has become much worse. The second part of the paper looks in more detail at what has been achieved country-by-country. Based on a new expert-group survey of key individuals involved in earthquake risk mitigation, it will examine what are perceived to be the successes and failures of risk mitigation in each country or group of countries. This survey will be used to highlight the achievements of those countries which have successfully tackled their earthquake risk; it will examine the processes of earthquake risk mitigation, from campaigning to retrofitting, and it will consider to what extent the achievement is the result of affluence, scientific and technical activity, political advocacy, public awareness, or the experience of destructive events. It will ask to what extent the approaches pioneered by the global leaders can be adopted by the rest. The final section of the talk will argue that it can be useful to view earthquake protection activity as a public health matter to be advanced in a manner similar to globally successful disease-control measures: it will be argued that the key components of such programmes—building in protection; harnessing new technology and creating a safety culture—must be the key components of earthquake protection strategies also. It will consider the contribution which the scientific and engineering community can make to bringing down today’s unacceptably high global earthquake risk. It will be suggested that this role is wider than commonly understood and needs to include: Building-in protection

Dynamic responses of coastal structures during earthquakes including sediment–sea–structure interaction

The effects of the interaction among sea water, sediment, backfill-soil and coastal structures (embankments) were included in the present study. The formulation is derived from fundamental theories in various fields, including marine hydrodynamics, flow in porous medium, and structural dynamics. The hybrid finite-difference and finite element methods were used in the analysis. The finite-difference method was used to calculate the nonlinear hydrodynamic pressures of sea water as well as the pore water in the sediment acting on the coastal embankment faces by seismic-wave actions. The fluid-filled solid mixture was used to model sediment and back-fill soil and the corresponding dynamic responses were also evaluated by finite difference method. The dynamic response of the coastal structures was calculated by finite element method. The numerical results are presented for various water depths and ground motion intensities. The significant dynamic forces on coastal structures were calculated during earthquakes and the possible sliding of the coastal embankment will occur and the special foundation treatment should be made.     

Some critical factors for engineering and environmental microgravity investigations

The gravity method is one of the geophysical tools used for engineering and environmental investigations where the detection of cavities, karst phenomena, subsoil irregularities, or landfills is essential. In many cases, deep or small-scale heterogeneities generating low-amplitude anomalies have to be detected and the reliability of further interpretation requires highly accurate measurements, carefully corrected for any quantifiable disturbing effects. The purpose of this study is to investigate the factors likely to limit measurement quality and how to make improvements.Calibrations of a Scintrex gravimeter were made between French relative and absolute base stations, and the relative uncertainties on the calibration factors were estimated for these links. Ranging from 10⁻³, for calibration on an old gravity net, to 10⁻⁴, for a high amplitude absolute base line, this accuracy will be generally sufficient for microgravity surveys.Continuous gravity recordings of Scintrex gravimeters, installed at the same stable site, enabled the estimation of the stability and accuracy of the instruments and revealed that some of the time variations of g measurements, such as instrumental drift, tidal effects and seismic noise, are not entirely removed by standard processing procedures. The accuracy of corrected gravity measurements is mainly limited by inadequate corrections of tidal effects and by a poor estimation of ocean loading effects. In comparison with residual defaults in tidal corrections, instrumental and seismic noises are taken more properly into account by statistical data processing.In field operation, residual tidal effects are generally integrated into an experimental terrain drift estimated on the basis of frequent repeated measurements. A differential gravity approach, based on a fixed gravimeter reference whose recordings are used to correct measurements made with a mobile gravimeter, has also been investigated at a test site. Compared to standard processing, this method can help improve repeatability of gravity measurements.Microgravity surveys in the urban environment require effective and accurate consideration of the effects of infrastructures, nearby buildings and basements, as well as those of topography, in the vicinity of a gravity station. Correction procedures, applied at the same experimental site, where gravity points are located close to buildings, walls and basement slope, appear to have almost totally eliminated these disturbances.     

Investigation of dynamic response of masonry minaret structures

Almost all historical minarets in Turkey were constructed using cut stone, masonry blocks or combination of these two materials. The structural and geometrical properties of each masonry minaret, or slender tower structure, depend on many factors including the structural knowledge and applications at the time of construction, experience of the architect or engineer, seismicity of the region, and availability of construction materials in that area. Recent earthquakes in Turkey have shown that most masonry minarets in high seismic regions are vulnerable to structural damage and collapse. In this study, in order to investigate the dynamic behavior of historical unreinforced masonry minarets, three representative minarets with 20, 25, and 30 m height were modeled and analyzed using two ground motions recorded during the 1999 Kocaeli and Duzce, Turkey earthquakes. The modal analyses of the models have shown that the structural periods and the overall structural response are influenced by the minaret height and spectral characteristics of the input motion. The dynamic displacement and axial stress time histories are computed at the critical points on the minarets. During recent earthquakes, most minaret failures occurred above the base of the structure. Consistent with the observed response, the largest stresses were calculated at the same location.     

天马台断层活动与地震的关系

利用1996～2008年天马台的定点跨断层场地的水准测量资料分析长乐-诏安断裂带的现今活动特征及其与地震的关系。结果表明：W—E测段活动速率最高,S—E测段活动速率次之,W—S测段活动速率最小。断层各段以压性逆断为主,与地质考察结果基本一致。同时讨论了断层活动与地震关系．认为3次准同步转折均与地震密切有关。     

Sediment budgeting: A case study in the Katiorin drainage basin,Kenya

The primary objective of this study was to compute a detailed budget for a small semiarid tropical drainage basin in Kenya. Results indicated that transfer of sediments (‘inputs’) from primary source areas was minor in comparison to changes in storage. The major sediment source area within the Katiorin drainage basin was the colluvial hillslope zone. The net change in storage within this zone was approximately 2100 Mg yr^?1. Surface wash and rilling were the dominant transport processes responsible for the remobilization of colluvial sediments. Sediment storage within the in-channel reservoir increased by 60 Mg yr^?1, which was minor when compared to the total store of sediment in this reservoir. During 1986, the channel network stored only a small fraction ( < 3 per cent) of the sediment delivered from the hillslope subsystem. Therefore, the in-channel reservoir had limited influence on sediment conveyance to the basin outlet. These data indicate that a static equilibrium condition cannot be assumed within the Katiorin drainage basin. Such an assumption would result in erosion estimates of approximately 5.5 mm yr^?1 for the entire basin (based on a sediment output of 7430 Mg km^?2 yr^?1 and a measured bulk density of 1.35 Mg m^?3). However, this masked the actual rates of 1.2 to 7.1 mm yr^?1 in subbasin primary source areas, and rates of 0.6 to 17 mm yr^?1 for colluvial material in the various subbasins. The extreme accelerated erosion rates resulted from minimal ground vegetation, steep slopes, soil crust formation, an erodible substrate, and a well-integrated drainage network for rapid conveyance of sediments from the hillslope subsystem to the basin outlet.     

A new portable in situ flume for measuring critical shear stress on river beds

A new portable in situ flume(PISF)for measuring critical bed shear stress(CBSS)was developed in this study.The PISF consists of an open bottom sediment erosion chamber and an electrically-driven pump.Unlike most existing in situ flumes with similar designs,the new PISF does not rely on monitoring the flow conditions or particle density in the sediment erosion chamber;instead,it is a pre-calibrated flume.The calibration was performed by first determining CBSS of various selected sediment samples of known particle size and density(using the law of the wall),based on flow velocity-depth profiles measured in a 6 m straight open-channel flume using a Particle Image Velocimetry(PIV)system.These same particles of known CBSS were then used in the new in-situ flume under controlled lab conditions to obtain a series of calibration curves of CBSS vs.pump electrical power.A wide variety of particle types and sizes(simulated sediments)were used in this two-step calibration procedure to widen CBSS measurement range and simulate cohesive force effects.The size of the PISF is much smaller and more practical than other similar devices as lamellar flow conditions are not required and it can be applied to a wide range of sediment types including cohesive sediments.     

Floodplain storage of mine tailings in the belle fourche river system: A sediment budget approach

Arsenic-contaminated mine tailings that were discharged into Whitewood Creek at Lead, South Dakota, from 1876 to 1978, were deposited along the floodplains of Whitewood Creek and the Belle Fourche River. The resulting arsenic-contaminated floodplain deposit consists mostly of overbank sediments and filled abandoned meanders along White-wood Creek, and overbank and point-bar sediments along the Belle Fourche River. Arsenic concentrations of the contaminated sediments indicate the degree of dilution of mine tailings by uncontaminated alluvium. About 13 per cent of the 110 × 10⁶ Mg of mine tailings that were discharged at Lead were deposited along the Whitewood Creek floodplain. Deposition of mine tailings near the mouth of Whitewood Creek was augmented by an engineered structure. About 29 per cent of the mine tailings delivered by Whitewood Creek were deposited along the Belle Fourche River floodplain. About 60 per cent of that sediment is contained in overbank deposits. Deposition along a segment of the Belle Fourche River was augmented by rapid channel migration. The proportions of contaminated sediment stored along Whitewood Creek and the Belle Fourche River are consistent with sediment storage along the floodplains of perennial streams in other, similar sized watersheds.     

Field-based description of near-surface crustal deformation in a high-strain shear zone: A case study in southern Kyushu,Japan

This study investigated geological evidence for near-surface crustal deformation in a high-strain shear zone that has been geodetically identified but which is not associated with obvious tectonic landforms. Fieldwork was conducted in the east–west-trending southern Kyushu high-strain shear zone (SKHZ), Japan, focusing mainly on occurrences of fracture zones, which are defined by a visible fracture density of >1 per 10 cm² and are commonly associated with cataclasite, fault breccia, and gouge. The area in which east–west-trending fracture zones are dominant is restricted to the east–west-trending, ~2-km-wide aftershock area of the 1997 Northwestern Kagoshima Earthquakes. Analysis of slip data from minor faults using the multiple inverse method, irrespective of whether the faults are in fracture zones, reveals that the area where the calculated main stress field is consistent with the current stress field estimated from focal-mechanism solutions of microearthquakes is restricted to the east–west-trending aftershock area. This finding for the SKHZ contrasts with the case of the Niigata–Kobe Tectonic Zone, which is a major strain-concentration zone with many exposed active faults in central Japan and for which the stress field estimated using fault-slip data is considered to be uniform and coincides with the current stress field. The cumulative amount of displacement estimated from the areal density of fracture zones in the SKHZ study area is smaller than that estimated from geodetically measured strain rates. Investigations based on slip data from minor faults and fracture-zone occurrence could help to identify concealed faults that are too small to generate tectonic landforms but which are sufficiently large to trigger major earthquakes.     

Lessons learned and need for instrumented liquefaction sites

Instrumented sites provide essential information for understanding and modeling of ground response and ground deformation. For example, significant new lessons were learned from responses at the Wildlife Liquefaction Array (WLA) including: (1) soil softening led to lengthening of period of transmitted ground motions; (2) soil softening also led to attenuation of short-period spectral accelerations (<0.7 s); (3) amplification of long period motions (>0.7 s) occurred due to liquefaction-induced ground oscillation; and (4) ground oscillation led to a continued rise of pore water pressures after strong ground shaking ceased. A new and expanded instrumented site is being developed 70 m downstream from the old WLA site as part of the NSF Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES). The new site has more accelerometers, piezometers and ground deformation measurement devices and the data will be streamed to the NEES-grid in near real time.     

Aftershock Statistics

The statistical properties of aftershock sequences are associated with three empirical scaling relations: (1) Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude scaling, (2) Båths law for the magnitude of the largest aftershock, and (3) the modified Omoris law for the temporal decay of aftershocks. In this paper these three laws are combined to give a relation for the aftershock decay rate that depends on only a few parameters. This result is used to study the temporal properties of aftershock sequences of several large California earthquakes. A review of different mechanisms and models of aftershocks are also given. The scale invariance of the process of stress transfer caused by a main shock and the heterogeneous medium in which aftershocks occur are responsible for the occurrence of scaling laws. We suggest that the observed partitioning of energy could play a crucial role in explaining the physical origin of Båths law. We also study the stress relaxation process in a simple model of damage mechanics and find that the rate of energy release in this model is identical to the rate of aftershock occurrence described by the modified Omoris law.     

Earthquake-induced landslides: 1980–1997

A database of earthquake-induced landslides has been compiled which extends the work of Keefer (Keefer DK. Landslides caused by earthquakes. Bulletin of the Geological Society of America 1984;95:406–421) who covered the period 1811–1980 to 1997. A total of 36 earthquakes world-wide are included, the new database having about the same number of earthquakes as reported by Keefer. Correlations evolving from the new database are compared with those of Keefer. Generally the results are very similar, though the presence of extreme outliers in some of the correlations emphasises the need to be aware of special cases, particularly those involving quick clay landslides. Seismological features, including multiple earthquakes and simultaneous arrival of different phases of seismic waves, also influence the outliers. The correlations between earthquake magnitude and total landslide area, however, differ somewhat from Keefer's. For the intermediate magnitude range 5.3–7.0, a modified correlation is suggested. The scatter of the data from which the correlations are derived is greater than found by Keefer. This is ascribed to the different geographic locations of the earthquakes in the two data sets.     

历史强震烈度点数量的统计特征及其对历史地震参数的影响

以1995 年出版的《中国历史强震目录(公元前23 世纪～ 公元1911 年)》为基础,首先统计了中国历史强震烈度点数量的总体分布情况,然后对历史强震烈度点数量在时间、空间和强度上的分布进行了分析,结果表明中国历史强震的烈度点资料普遍偏少。在时间和强度上,公元1500 年以前,受条件所限很多历史大震没有记载或者有些记载没能流传至今,而流传下来的历史地震也仅有少数烈度点;公元元年以前,史料记载过于简单且有缺漏,导致估定的最大震级记录不超过7 级;公元1500 年以后才开始出现8 级以上大震记录。在空间上,中国东部地区地震记载点明显较西部地区更为翔实。本文对单烈度记载点历史强震情况进行了重点分析,并将既有仪器记录又有宏观考察的现代地震按照历史地震参数获取方法进行处理,以讨论烈度点稀缺对确定历史地震参数的影响。     

Seismotectonic models and CN algorithm: The case of Italy

The CN algorithm is utilized here both for the intermediate term earthquake prediction and to validate the seismotectonic model of the Italian territory. Using the results of the analysis, made through the CN algorithm and taking into account the seismotectonic model, three main areas, one for Northern Italy, one for Central Italy and one for Southern Italy, are defined. Two transition areas between the three main areas are delineated. The earthquakes which occurred in these two areas contribute to the precursor phenomena identified by the CN algorithm in each main area.     

The assessment of sediment sources: A field experiment

The possibility of using metals from mining activity as tracers for identifying stream sediment sources is explored. Sampling of monthly bed sediment yield and of the spatial and temporal variation in Pb concentration was undertaken in a 1·02 km² catchment, and estimates of the sediment contribution from different stream reaches are calculated. The method has considerable limitations, for metal concentrations are notably dependent on sediment size, season, source availability, and the chemical mobility of the metal used. In most natural streams these must preclude the use of pollutants for simple sediment source identification.     

ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS OF A CONTINENTAL SEDIMENT MONITORING PROGRAM

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A closing Ligurian Sea?

Two earthquakes occurred in the Ligurian Sea in December 1989 and April 1990. Both were widely felt along the French and Italian Rivieras, thus reminding us of the seismic risk in this region. The significant increase in the number of seismic stations in the area facilitated the study of these two shocks and their related aftershocks. Using different techniques (absolute and relative hypocentral locations, doublet analysis and waveform modeling), we computed accurate hypocentral locations and estimated the location-error range for earthquakes in this area. We also computed the focal mechanisms for both mainshocks, and we present here a synthesis that integrates previous data. The reactivation in compression of the Ligurian Sea sphenochasm is confirmed, which would eventually result in the closing of an aborted oceanic domain. As the seismic activity is clearly restricted to the northern margin, we suggest it locally results from the lateral expulsion of the south-western Alps along the Apulian indenter.     

Design of sediment detention basins: Scaled model experiments and application

Sediment detention basins are implemented on mountain rivers to trap solid material that may aggravate the flooding of downstream settlements.However,retention structures built in the past may unnecessarily retain sediment during non-hazardous flood events,resulting in high maintenance costs and sediment deficit downstream.In addition,the so-called spontaneous self-flushing of previously retained sediment during floods has occasionally been observed.Recent research suggests to design sediment detention basins for controlling sediment passage with a guiding channel across the deposition area upstream of a hybrid barrier.Such barriers consist of a check dam with a slot orifice and an upstream bar screen with a bottom clearance in order to benefit from a combined mechanical-hydraulic retention control.The present paper enhances this pioneering research with the help of new experimental data,including a wide range of sediment mixtures and large wood,as well as variable barrier heights.Improved design criteria are provided regarding the bar screen and the basin storage capacity.The functionality of the enhanced concept for sediment detention is illustrated by a case study on a physical model:the protection of the Villard-Bonnot village(France)against torrential hazards.     

Bayesian age-depth modelling of Late Quaternary deposits from Wet and Blanche Caves,Naracoorte, South Australia: A framework for comparative faunal analyses

Bayesian age-depth models were constructed for two Late Quaternary aged fossil-bearing sedimentary sequences from caves in south eastern South Australia. The deposits in Wet and Blanche Caves contain dense assemblages of vertebrate fossils, largely the result of owl pellet accumulation. While individually calibrated radiocarbon determinations from the fossil sequences have provided a chronology for their accumulation, there was limited capacity available with such data to (a) temporally constrain assemblages associated with different depositional units and layers within the two sites, (b) interpret the chronological relationships among successive units and layers and (c) correlate sedimentary units and layers of similar age between the two deposits. Here, Bayesian age-depth models were constructed in OxCal for the Wet and Blanche Cave sequences, incorporating the available radiocarbon data and stratigraphic information collected during their excavation. Despite the low precision of the age-depth models for Wet and Blanche Caves which results in part from there being only single radiocarbon determinations available for a number of units and layers, the models enabled the relationships within and between the two sites to be established. Of particular utility for future faunal analyses is quantification of the temporal relationship between strata from the two sites, where groups of individual layers from Blanche Cave were found to be temporally equivalent with the longer-duration units in Wet Cave. We suggest that the use of Phase modelling, as performed here, is useful for cave deposits that have complex depositional histories and even in such instances where, as is common for palaeontological sites, few radiocarbon data are collected relative to the time-spans of tens of millennia that are often represented by them.     

基于轴向位移的钢支撑疲劳损伤评估方法

在罕遇地震下,框架-中心支撑结构中的钢支撑常因局部屈曲位置的低周疲劳开裂而过早退出工作。本文在焊接工字形钢支撑低周疲劳试验研究基础上,提出了一种可用于框架-中心支撑体系非线性动力时程分析中钢支撑疲劳损伤评估的经验方法,并给出了相关步骤的算法流程。研究结果表明:本文方法以钢支撑轴向位移为损伤参量,能实时估算在随机位移荷载下钢支撑的低周疲劳累积损伤发展,并与试验结果吻合较好。