利用探地雷达(GPR)观测加拿大北极群岛和陆架区海冰厚度空间分布特征

Ground Penetrating Radar(GPR) measurements of sea ice thickness including undeformed ice and ridged ice were carried out in the central north Canadian Archipelago in spring 2010. Results have shown a significant spatial heterogeneity of sea ice thickness across the shelf. The undeformed multi-year fast ice of(2.05±0.09) m thick was investigated southern inshore zone of Borden island located at middle of the observational section,which was the observed maximum thickness in the field work. The less thick sea ice was sampled across a flaw lead with the thicknesses of(1.05±0.11) m for the pack ice and(1.24±0.13) m for the fast ice. At the northernmost spot of the section, the undeformed multi-year pack ice was(1.54±0.22) m thick with a ridged ice of 2.5 to 3 m,comparing to the multi-year fast ice with the thickness of(1.67±0.16) m at the southernmost station in the Prince Gustaf Adolf Sea.     

Variability in oceanographic and ecological processes in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

This paper brings together unpublished historical data sets and published literature to review the role of climatic, oceanographic and ecological processes in the marine ecosystem of the eastern Canadian Archipelago. Physical data include characteristics of the water masses, circulation patterns, sea ice conditions, and climatic records from 1950s onward. Biological data include unpublished data sets on nutrients, primary and secondary production, and sedimentation, which were collected during the 1980–1990s in the eastern Canadian Archipelago. These results show high year-to-year variability in nutrient inventories and ratios, the magnitude of the ice algae and phytoplankton bloom, the timing of ice algae sedimentation in the spring, and the composition of the zooplankton community. The significance of this high interannual variability and its effect on pelagic–benthic coupling processes is discussed in the context of climatic and oceanographic forcing, with emphasis on recent (past decade) Arctic changes. An estimate of total primary production in the Archipelago is also presented, along with published production estimates for other Arctic shelves, showing that the Archipelago may support up to 32% of the total primary production of Arctic shelves. The high year-to-year variability in production and carbon transfer pathways (e.g. pelagic versus benthic) in the Archipelago suggest that the system might be resilient to the increased variability in climatic conditions occurring in the past decade. However, this increased variability combined with directional change in climatic and oceanographic conditions might also modify the existing balance of ecological processes. For example, shifts in the timing of events appear to have already occurred in the past decade, with potential cascading effects throughout the ecosystem.     

海冰动力过程的改进离散元模型及在渤海的应用

海冰的断裂、重叠和堆积等离散分布特性广泛地存在于极区和副极区的不同海域,并对海冰的生消、运移过程有着重要影响。针对海冰在不同尺度下的离散分布特点,发展海冰动力过程的离散元方法有助于完善海冰数值模式,提高海冰数值模拟的计算精度。为此,本文针对海冰生消运移过程中的非连续分布和形变特性,发展了适用于海冰动力过程的改进离散元模型(MDEM)。不同于传统离散元方法,该模型将海冰离散为具有一定厚度、尺寸和密集度的圆盘单元。海冰单元设为诸多浮冰块的集合体,其在运移和相互接触碰撞过程中,依照质量守恒发生单元尺寸、密集度和厚度的相应变化。基于海冰离散性和流变性的特点,该模型采用黏弹性接触本构模型计算单元间的作用力,并依据Mohr-Coulomb准则计算海冰法向作用下的塑性变形及切向摩擦力。为验证该模型的可靠性,本文对海冰在规则水域内的运移和堆积过程进行了分析,离散元计算结果与解析值相一致;此外,对旋转风场下海冰漂移规律的模拟进一步验证了本文方法的精确性。在此基础上,对渤海辽东湾的海冰动力过程进行了48h数值分析,计算结果与卫星遥感资料和油气作业区的海冰现场监测数据吻合良好。在下一步工作中将考虑海冰离散元模拟中的热力因素影响,发展具有冻结、断裂效应的海冰离散元模型,更精确地模拟海冰动力-热力耦合作用下的生消和运移过程。     

The implications of Arctic sea ice decline on shipping

Although a ‘blue’ Arctic Ocean is predicted in the summertime to occur from the middle of this century, current rates of warming indicate an earlier realization. Also, routes along the coast of Siberia will be navigable much earlier. However, before the Arctic routes can reliably be used on a large scale for transit by shipping along its passages, more investments are required on infrastructure and the provision of marine services to ensure the safe and secure transit of shipping with minimal environmental impact.     

渤海和北极海冰组构及晶体结构特征分析

渤海一年冰的组构和晶体结构表现出的冰的非连续生长速率使得冰层底部具有气泡含量不同的许多分层;静水生长的灰冰具有典型的粒状冰和柱状冰;融化-重冻结冰和重叠冰具有特定的晶体结构.位于北冰洋72°24.037'N,153°33.994'W,长2.2m的冰心样为三年冰,并且发现其内有一种新的晶体类型,定义为碎屑凝聚冰.由位于北冰洋74°58.614'N,160°31.830'W,长4.86m的冰心样的晶体结构分析发现它过去为冰脊,后经融化-冻结改造形成冰丘的证据.     

On the future navigability of Arctic sea routes: High-resolution projections of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice

The rapid Arctic summer sea ice reduction in the last decade has lead to debates in the maritime industries on the possibility of an increase in cargo transportation in the region. Average sailing times on the North Sea Route along the Siberian Coast have fallen from 20 days in the 1990s to 11 days in 2012–2013, attributed to easing sea ice conditions along the Siberian coast. However, the economic risk of exploiting the Arctic shipping routes is substantial. Here a detailed high-resolution projection of ocean and sea ice to the end of the 21st century forced with the RCP8.5 IPCC emission scenario is used to examine navigability of the Arctic sea routes. In summer, opening of large areas of the Arctic Ocean previously covered by pack ice to the wind and surface waves leads to Arctic pack ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone. The emerging state of the Arctic Ocean features more fragmented thinner sea ice, stronger winds, ocean currents and waves. By the mid 21st century, summer season sailing times along the route via the North Pole are estimated to be 13–17 days, which could make this route as fast as the North Sea Route.     

海冰形变对北极冬季CICE模式冰厚模拟结果的影响

海冰数值模式是研究海冰动力热力状态参量及之间联系的有效途径。目前对冰厚数值模拟结果的分析远远少于对海冰范围/面积和密集度的研究,对冰速与海冰形变对冰厚分布影响的研究也尚欠缺。本文利用Los Alamos sea ice model（CICE）海冰模式模拟了1980−2018年的北极海冰变化,并使用遥感、同化冰厚数据进行比对验证,分析了模拟冰速和海冰形变对冰厚的影响,计算了冰速的散度和切变偏差对冰厚偏差的贡献。结果显示,CICE对北极70°N以北区域平均冰厚和冰速的年际变化模拟基本合理,但模拟的平均冰厚和冰速多年变化趋势均小于同化数据的变化率;模拟和观测冰厚的空间分布差异与冰速和形变率的偏差有密切联系,主要表现为波弗特海的正偏差和北极中央区至弗拉姆海峡的负偏差。泛北极区域散度和切变偏差在3月之前对冰厚偏差的贡献在13%～16%之间变化,3−4月则由16%跃变至27%。散度偏差主导了11月、12月波弗特海区域的冰厚正偏差,切变偏差主导了冬季加拿大群岛以北海域和穿极流区域的冰厚负偏差。     

基于高效统计模型预测9月北极航道沿线海冰范围

The rapid decrease in Arctic sea ice cover and thickness not only has a linkage with extreme weather in the midlatitudes but also brings more opportunities for Arctic shipping routes and polar resource exploration, both of which motivate us to further understand causes of sea-ice variations and to obtain more accurate estimates of seaice cover in the future. Here, a novel data-driven method, the causal effect networks algorithm, is applied to identify the direct precursors of September sea-ice extent covering the Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route at different lead times so that statistical models can be constructed for sea-ice prediction. The whole study area was also divided into two parts: the northern region covered by multiyear ice and the southern region covered by seasonal ice. The forecast models of September sea-ice extent in the whole study area(TSIE) and southern region(SSIE) at lead times of 1–4 months can explain over 65% and 79% of the variances, respectively,but the forecast skill of sea-ice extent in the northern region(NSIE) is limited at a lead time of 1 month. At lead times of 1–4 months, local sea-ice concentration and sea-ice thickness have a larger influence on September TSIE and SSIE than other teleconnection factors. When the lead time is more than 4 months, the surface meridional wind anomaly from northern Europe in the preceding autumn or early winter is dominant for September TSIE variations but is comparable to thermodynamic factors for NSIE and SSIE. We suggest that this study provides a complementary approach for predicting regional sea ice and is helpful in evaluating and improving climate models.     

北极冬季季节性海冰双模态特征分析

近年来北极海冰快速变化,北极中央区边缘正由以多年冰为主转为季节性海冰为主。通过对北极冬季季节性海冰的EOF分解发现,2002-2012年期间北极季节性海冰变化的前两模态主要体现为2005年和2007年的季节性海冰距平。其中第二模态主要体现了北极海冰在2005年的一种极端变化,而第一模态不仅体现了北极海冰在2007年的变化,还体现了北极季节性海冰的从负位相到正位相的转变。通过比较发现,在研究时段北极季节性海冰最主要的变化发生在北极太平洋扇区,在2007年,冬季季节性海冰距平发生位相转变,2007-2010年一直维持正位相,北极太平洋扇区冬季季节性海冰保持显著正距平。太平洋扇区表面温度最大异常也发生在2007年,从大气环流来看,2007年之后波弗特海区异常高压有利于夏季太平洋扇区海冰的减少,而西风急流的减弱有利于夏季波弗特海区异常高压的维持,结合夏季海冰速度,顺时针的冰速分布有利于海冰离开太平洋扇区,因而会导致冬季太平洋扇区季节性海冰转为正距平并且从2007年一直维持到2010年。     

北极夏季海冰单轴抗压强度研究

The results on the uniaxial compressive strength of Arctic summer sea ice are presented based on the samples collected during the fifth Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition in 2012(CHINARE-2012). Experimental studies were carried out at different testing temperatures(-3,-6 and-9°C), and vertical samples were loaded at stress rates ranging from 0.001 to 1 MPa/s. The temperature, density, and salinity of the ice were measured to calculate the total porosity of the ice. In order to study the effects of the total porosity and the density on the uniaxial compressive strength, the measured strengths for a narrow range of stress rates from 0.01 to 0.03 MPa/s were analyzed. The results show that the uniaxial compressive strength decreases linearly with increasing total porosity, and when the density was lower than 0.86 g/cm3, the uniaxial compressive strength increases in a power-law manner with density. The uniaxial compressive behavior of the Arctic summer sea ice is sensitive to the loading rate, and the peak uniaxial compressive strength is reached in the brittle-ductile transition range. The dependence of the strength on the temperature shows that the calculated average strength in the brittle-ductile transition range, which was considered as the peak uniaxial compressive strength, increases steadily in the temperature range from-3 to-9°C.     

Amodified discrete element model for sea ice dynamics

Considering the discontinuous characteristics of sea ice on various scales,a modified discrete element model（DEM） for sea ice dynamics is developed based on the granular material rheology.In this modified DEM,a soft sea ice particle element is introduced as a self-adjustive particle size function.Each ice particle can be treated as an assembly of ice floes,with its concentration and thickness changing to variable sizes under the conservation of mass.In this model,the contact forces among ice particles are calculated using a viscous-elastic-plastic model,while the maximum shear forces are described with the Mohr-Coulomb friction law.With this modified DEM,the ice flow dynamics is simulated under the drags of wind and current in a channel of various widths.The thicknesses,concentrations and velocities of ice particles are obtained,and then reasonable dynamic process is analyzed.The sea ice dynamic process is also simulated in a vortex wind field.Taking the influence of thermodynamics into account,this modified DEM will be improved in the future work.     

北极中央区海冰低密集度现象研究

近年,北极中央密集冰区出现海冰低密集度的异常现象。为了探讨这一现象的成因,本文使用ERA-Interim再分析资料,定义了北极中央区海冰低密集度（LCCA）指数,研究了2009-2016年的6-9月北极中央区发生的海冰低密集度现象。分析表明,研究时段内在北极中央区发生了6次明显的海冰低密集度（LCCA峰值）过程。在这些过程中,局地气温异常并不是导致海冰低密集度现象发生最主要的因素;海冰低密集度区域的形态及冰速场分布均与大气环流场相对应;在LCCA指数峰值发生前均有气旋中心出现在北冰洋70°N以北并伴随向北移动,气旋引起海冰辐散,同时所携带的较低纬度的热量导致海冰迅速融化。在6次过程中,有3次为气旋影响配合北极偶极子（DA）型环流。LCCA指数与84°N平均向北温度平流和北极中央区海冰速度散度呈正相关。在LCCA指数峰值前,温度平流对海冰低密集度区域形成的影响大于海冰辐散的影响。     

北极楚科奇海海冰面积多年变化的研究

北极气候系统正在发生显著变化,其中,海冰面积和厚度的减小是其最主要的特征.楚科奇海是海冰面积变化最有代表性的区域.文章利用积累了9a的高分辨率海冰分布数据研究海冰面积的多年变化特征.结果表明,各年的冰情有显著的季节内变化,海冰面积距平曲线体现了不同时期海冰面积变化的动态过程.在1997~2005年间,楚科奇海海冰面积经历了轻(1997年)-重(2000~2001年)-轻(2002~2005年)的变化过程.9a的数据总体上体现了海冰面积减小的趋势,2005年的冰情呈现了历史新低.每年融冰期的长短与冰情轻重有密切的关系,冰轻年份融冰开始时间早,冻结结束时间晚.各年海冰面积最小值发生在9月下旬至10月初,各个年份海冰最小面积差别很大.有的年份只有4%,而重冰年可以大于50%.文章采用4个重要参数表达海冰多年变化.其中海冰面积指数反映了当年总体平均的海冰面积距平;海冰最小面积反映了融冰期海冰的极限情况;上一个冬季的气温积温也与翌年海冰面积有良好的关联;分析了风场对海冰的影响,表明风场在融冰期能够在短时间内改变海冰的覆盖面积.     

两种盐度参数化方案在海冰模式中的应用比较

本文详细介绍了SIS海冰模式中引进两种盐度参数化方案即等盐度方案和盐度廓线方案对海冰模拟所存在的差异。利用盐度廓线方案导出的表征盐度与海冰温度间关系的方程比等盐度方案多出一项,将定义为盐度差异项。盐度差异项对海冰厚度的热力作用表现为：在海冰厚度增长季节（11月到次年5月）,盐度差异项通过升高海冰内部温度,抑制海冰增长;在消融的第一阶段（6．8月）,盐度差异项通过升高海冰内部温度加快海冰消融;在消融的第二阶段（9．10月）,盐度差异项通过降低海冰内部的温度抑制海冰消融。但尺度分析表明,盐度差异项要比方程中队海冰温度作用最大项小1．2个量级,如果采用一级近似,可以略去盐度差异项,因此盐度差异项对海冰增长和消融影响很小。同时利用冰洋耦合模式（ModularOceanModel,MOM4）,分别采用两种盐度参数化方案模拟北极海冰厚度和海冰密集度的季节性变化,模拟结果也表明两种方案模拟得到的海冰厚度和海冰密集度的季节性变化相差甚小。     

地球系统模式FIO-ESM对北极海冰的模拟和预估

评估了地球系统模式FIO-ESM(First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model)基于CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)的历史实验对北极海冰的模拟能力,分析了该模式基于CMIP5未来情景实验在不同典型浓度路径(RCPs,Representative Concentration Pathways)下对北极海冰的预估情况。通过与卫星观测的海冰覆盖范围资料相比,该模式能够很好地模拟出多年平均海冰覆盖范围的季节变化特征,模拟的气候态月平均海冰覆盖范围均在卫星观测值±15%范围以内。FIO-ESM能够较好地模拟1979-2005年期间北极海冰的衰减趋势,模拟衰减速度为每年减少2.24×104 km2,但仍小于观测衰减速度(每年减少4.72×104 km2)。特别值得注意的是:不同于其他模式所预估的海冰一直衰减,FIO-ESM对21世纪北极海冰预估在不同情景下呈现不同的变化趋势,在RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下,北极海冰总体呈增加趋势,在RCP6情景下,北极海冰基本维持不变,而在RCP8.5情景下,北极海冰呈现继续衰减趋势。     

北极各海域海冰覆盖范围的变化特征

Sea ice in the Arctic has been reducing rapidly in the past half century due to global warming.This study analyzes the variations of sea ice extent in the entire Arctic Ocean and its sub regions.The results indicate that sea ice extent reduction during 1979–2013 is most significant in summer,following by that in autumn,winter and spring.In years with rich sea ice,sea ice extent anomaly with seasonal cycle removed changes with a period of 4–6 years.The year of 2003–2006 is the ice-rich period with diverse regional difference in this century.In years with poor sea ice,sea ice margin retreats further north in the Arctic.Sea ice in the Fram Strait changes in an opposite way to that in the entire Arctic.Sea ice coverage index in melting-freezing period is an critical indicator for sea ice changes,which shows an coincident change in the Arctic and sub regions.Since 2002,Region C2 in north of the Pacific sector contributes most to sea ice changes in the central Aarctic,followed by C1 and C3.Sea ice changes in different regions show three relationships.The correlation coefficient between sea ice coverage index of the Chukchi Sea and that of the East Siberian Sea is high,suggesting good consistency of ice variation.In the Atlantic sector,sea ice changes are coincided with each other between the Kara Sea and the Barents Sea as a result of warm inflow into the Kara Sea from the Barents Sea.Sea ice changes in the central Arctic are affected by surrounding seas.     

Sea ice volume and age: Sensitivity to physical parameterizations and thickness resolution in the CICE sea ice model

New dynamics parameterizations in Version 5 of the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model, CICE, feature an anisotropic rheology and variable drag coefficients. This study investigates their effect on Arctic sea ice volume and age simulations, along with the effects of several pre-existing model options: a parameter that represents the mean cumulative area of ice participating in ridging, the resolution of the ice thickness distribution, and the resolution of the vertical temperature and salinity profiles.By increasing shear stress between floes, the anisotropic rheology slows the ice motion, producing a thicker, older ice pack. The inclusion of variable drag coefficients, which depend on modeled roughness elements such as deformed ice and melt pond edges, leads to thinner ice and a more realistic simulation of sea ice age. Several feedback processes act to enhance differences among the runs. Notably, if less open water is produced mechanically through ice deformational processes, the simulated ice thins relative to runs with more mechanically produced open water. Thermodynamic processes can have opposing effects on ice age and volume; for instance, growth of new ice increases the volume while decreasing the age of the pack. Therefore, age data provides additional information useful for differentiating among process parameterization effects and sensitivities to other model parameters.Resolution of thicker ice types is crucial for proper modeling of sea ice volume, because the volume of ice in the thicker ice categories determines the total ice volume. Model thickness categories tend to focus resolution for thinner ice; this paper demonstrates that 5 ice thickness categories are not enough to accurately resolve the ice thickness distribution for simulations of ice volume.     

CICE5.0与BCC_CSM2.0模式的耦合及对北极海冰的模拟评估

本文将美国Los Alamos国家实验室发展的最新海冰模式CICE5.0引入国家气候中心气候系统模式BCC_CSM2.0,替代原有的海冰模式SIS,形成一个新的耦合模式。在此基础上,评估新耦合模式对1985-2009年北极海冰的模拟性能,检验引入CICE5.0后对耦合模式中北极海冰、海洋和大气模拟结果的改进。结果表明,引入CICE5.0后,模式能较好地模拟出北极海冰的空间分布、季节以及年际变化特征。相比于旧版本耦合模式,新耦合模式模拟的北极多年冰增多、一年冰减少,同时,海冰增厚、海冰流速减慢,模拟效果得到显著改进,对波弗特涡流模拟的改善尤为明显。进一步分析发现,相比于SIS,CICE5.0对北极海冰特别是海冰厚度模拟性能的提升,在耦合进入BCC_CSM2.0后,会触发冰-温的正反馈机制,改进了模式对海平面气压场、表层气温和海表温度的模拟,由此进一步提高了模式对北极海冰的模拟能力。     

CMIP5气候模式模拟的北极海冰特征及其季节变化

This paper is focused on the seasonality change of Arctic sea ice extent(SIE) from 1979 to 2100 using newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5).A new approach to compare the simulation metric of Arctic SIE between observation and 31 CMIP5 models was established.The approach is based on four factors including the climatological average,linear trend of SIE,span of melting season and annual range of SIE.It is more objective and can be popularized to other comparison of models.Six good models(GFDL-CM3,CESM1-BGC,MPI-ESM-LR,ACCESS-1.0,Had GEM2-CC,and Had GEM2-AO in turn) are found which meet the criterion closely based on above approach.Based on ensemble mean of the six models,we found that the Arctic sea ice will continue declining in each season and firstly drop below 1 million km~2(defined as the ice-free state) in September 2065 under RCP4.5 scenario and in September 2053 under RCP8.5 scenario.We also study the seasonal cycle of the Arctic SIE and find out the duration of Arctic summer(melting season) will increase by about 100 days under RCP4.5 scenario and about 200 days under RCP8.5 scenario relative to current circumstance by the end of the 21 st century.Asymmetry of the Arctic SIE seasonal cycle with later freezing in fall and early melting in spring,would be more apparent in the future when the Arctic climate approaches to "tipping point",or when the ice-free Arctic Ocean appears.Annual range of SIE(seasonal melting ice extent) will increase almost linearly in the near future 30–40 years before the Arctic appears ice-free ocean,indicating the more ice melting in summer,the more ice freezing in winter,which may cause more extreme weather events in both winter and summer in the future years.     

北极海冰密集度预报对大气强迫敏感性的个例研究

A regional Arctic configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model （MIT-gcm） is used as the coupled ice-ocean model for forecasting sea ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean at the Na-tional Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China （NMEFC）, and the numerical weather prediction from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System （NCEP GFS） is used as the atmospheric forcing. To improve the sea ice forecasting, a recently developed Polar Weather Research and Forecasting model （Polar WRF） model prediction is also tested as the atmospheric forcing. Their forecasting performances are evaluated with two different satellite-derived sea ice concentration products as initializa-tions： （1） the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder （SSMIS） and （2） the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS （AMSR-E）. Three synoptic cases, which represent the typical atmospheric circulations over the Arctic Ocean in summer 2010, are selected to carry out the Arctic sea ice numerical forecasting experiments. The evaluations suggest that the forecasts of sea ice concentrations using the Polar WRF atmo-spheric forcing show some improvements as compared with that of the NCEP GFS.