The IASPEI procedure for the evaluation of earthquake precursors

Full scientific evaluation of proposed earthquake precursors for earthquake prediction is a problem because independent testing is difficult or impossible. To approach this difficulty, and to assess the current state of the art of earthquake prediction research, IASPEI has devised a peer-review procedure for precursor evaluation. The procedure does not consider predictions of impending earthquakes, but evaluates case histories of proposed precursors for past events according to stated validation criteria, which are specified in terms of guidelines concerning the hypothesized physical model, data quality, anomaly definition, the rules of association of precursor with earthquake, and statistical significance. So far, five precursors have been placed on a preliminary list of significant earthquake precursors, although none has satisfied the validation criteria well enough to ensure that their placement is permanent. Exclusion of a precursor from the list does not mean it is useless, but further work is required if it is to become convincing. The main objectives in producing the list are to establish a consensus on the criteria which a precursor must satisfy to be recognized as validated, and to find case histories which satisfy these criteria. Further nominations of precursor candidates are requested for evaluation by the IASPEI procedure.     

Comments on Boyle's Acidity and organic carbon in lake water: variability and estimation of means

Conclusion The problem of correctly estimating the true mean of a time series of observations is not a simple one. Data normalization must be done with care, and no general recipe can be found that applies to all pH data series — or, for that matter, to any other variable of limnological interest. It depends on the type of variable and on the sampling scale (temporal or spatial), among other factors; each case has to be subjected anew to the search of the best normalizing transformation. Then, when estimating the confidence interval of the mean from a few observations only, the autocorrelation properties of the series must imperatively be taken into account. If they are not, the width of the confidence interval can be grossly underestimated.     

南极冰盖SO_4~(2-)浓度记录研究进展

本文综述了南极冰盖雪冰中SO2 -4 的来源、SO2 -4 浓度记录的时空分布特征 ,特别对nss SO2 -4 记录的火山活动事件进行了概括与总结 ,反映了近年来南极雪冰中SO2 -4 记录的最新研究进展。南极冰盖雪冰中SO2 -4 来源的综述表明南极地区雪冰中的SO2 -4 主要来源于海盐、海洋生物和火山喷发三种。很多研究表明 ,用南极冰芯中记录的nssSO2 -4 可以恢复火山活动的历史 ,虽然对同一次火山活动 ,在取自南极不同地区的冰芯中 ,其浓度和沉积通量大不一样 ,然而 ,各次火山活动引起的硫酸根离子的沉积通量相对于Tambora火山的沉积通量的百分比在不同冰芯中却经常具有可比性 ,这使得利用冰芯中nssSO2 -4 的沉积通量推算历史时期火山喷发的强度成为可能     

南极冰盖SO_4~(2-)浓度记录研究进展

本文综述了南极冰盖雪冰中SO2 -4 的来源、SO2 -4 浓度记录的时空分布特征 ,特别对nss SO2 -4 记录的火山活动事件进行了概括与总结 ,反映了近年来南极雪冰中SO2 -4 记录的最新研究进展。南极冰盖雪冰中SO2 -4 来源的综述表明南极地区雪冰中的SO2 -4 主要来源于海盐、海洋生物和火山喷发三种。很多研究表明 ,用南极冰芯中记录的nssSO2 -4 可以恢复火山活动的历史 ,虽然对同一次火山活动 ,在取自南极不同地区的冰芯中 ,其浓度和沉积通量大不一样 ,然而 ,各次火山活动引起的硫酸根离子的沉积通量相对于Tambora火山的沉积通量的百分比在不同冰芯中却经常具有可比性 ,这使得利用冰芯中nssSO2 -4 的沉积通量推算历史时期火山喷发的强度成为可能     

Applicability of time-to-failure analysis to accelerated strain before earthquakes and volcanic eruptions

We examine quantitatively the ranges of applicability of the equation Ω= A+B [1− t/t _f ] ^m for predicting 'system-sized' failure times t _f in the Earth. In applications Ω is a proxy measure for strain or crack length, and A , B and the index m are model parameters determined by curve fitting. We consider constitutive rules derived from (a) Charles' law for subcritical crack growth; (b) Voight's equation; and (c) a simple percolation model, and show in each case that this equation holds only when m < 0. When m > 0, the general solution takes the form Ω = A + B [1 + t / T  ] ^m , where T   is a positive time constant, and no failure time can be defined. Reported values for volcanic precursors based on rate data are found to be within the range of applicability of time-to-failure analysis ( m < 0). The same applies to seismic moment release before earthquakes, at the expense of poor retrospective predictability of the time of the a posteriori -defined main shock. In contrast, reported values based on increasing cumulative Benioff strain occur in the region where a system-sized failure time cannot be defined ( m > 0; commonly m ≈ 0.3). We conclude on physical grounds that cumulative seismic moment is preferred as the most direct measure of seismic strain. If cumulative Benioff strain is to be retained on empirical grounds, then it is important that these data either be re-examined with the independent constraint m < 0, or that for the case 0 < m + 1 < 1, a specific correction for the time-integration of cumulative data be applied, of the form ΣΩ = At + B '{1 − [1 − t/t _f ] ^m+1 }.     

Dating of the Dome Fuji shallow ice core based on a record of volcanic eruptions from AD 1260 to AD 2001

We measured the concentration of non-sea-salt sulfate () in the Dome Fuji shallow ice core (Antarctica) from the surface to 40 m depth with the aim of dating the core with reference to the record of volcanic eruptions. Three huge spikes related to large-scale volcanic eruptions were detected at depths of 12.5, 29.9, and 38.8 m, correlated to the eruptions of Tambora (AD 1815), Kuwae (AD 1452) and an unknown event (AD 1259), respectively. We identified another nine spikes related to accurately dated eruption events. The shallow ice core was dated from AD 1260 to AD 2001 based on these 12 eruption events and the assumption of constant annual snow accumulation in the periods between eruption events. The results yield a maximum correction of ∼20 years compared with the dating proposed in a previous study. The annual accumulation varied within ±∼15% of the average water equivalent value over the study period (25.5 mm).     

基于时变权重组合与贝叶斯修正的中长期径流预报

高精度的中长期径流预报信息是水资源规划管理与水利工程经济运行的重要基础支撑。论文在组合预报与误差修正2类径流预报后处理方法串联应用的技术框架下,考虑径流的高度非平稳与非线性等特征,提出了基于时变权重组合和贝叶斯修正的中长期径流预报方法。应用该方法开展了云南龙江水库年、月入库径流预报的实例研究,结果表明时变权重组合平衡了已建立的随机森林与支持向量机模型在建模期与检验期预报性能的差异,经贝叶斯修正后的预报精度接近或优于两阶段各自的最优单一模型。根据年径流预报结果判断水文年型的正确率达到77.2%,月预报径流的确定性系数超过0.90。因此,该方法在提升中长期径流预报精度方面具有积极效果。     

A storm-related origin for the Jurassic Brentskardhaugen Bed of Spitsbergen, Norway

The laterally persistent but thin, Jurassic age (Bathonian-Callovian) Brentskardhaugen bed is poorly sorted (often with mud to cobble size), and is crudely normally and/or reversely graded without internal discontinuities. These traits may indicate a short-lived depositional event, and are inconsistent with an origin as a basal, transgressive gravel lag formed in a terrestrial or shoreline setting. Mega-storm events on a shallow marine shelf with an underlying condensed section may account for the poor sorting, grading, stratigraphic position and remanie character of the bed.     

基于GAMLSS模型的水文干旱指数研究——以玛纳斯河流域为例

传统的水文干旱指数是在一致性条件下确定的,而在非一致情况下水文干旱指数的识别精度受到质疑。特别是当全球气候发生剧烈变化的时候,应用合适的干旱指数可以增加干旱预警的精确度。一般在非一致情况下,通常会认为干旱指数的概率分布参数服从时间或者其他协变量的线性或者非线性变化。因此以玛纳斯河流域肯斯瓦特站为例,构建以时间为协变量的GAMLSS模型,建立非一致情况的标准化径流指数SRI_ns,并对比分析,讨论其适用性。结果表明：① 肯斯瓦特站1957—2014年期间,径流量的变化趋势比降水和气温的变化趋势更为明显,径流发生明显变化主要集中在秋季和冬季,降水全年各月的变化趋势不明显,气温则在春季和夏季变化较剧烈。② 通过对比研究区1957—2014年内有历史资料记载的历史干旱事件,SRI_ns对于研究区干旱事件的识别更准确,SRI_ns识别的严重干旱和极度干旱事件的发生频率要比SRI_s高。③ 通过游程理论识别出干旱特征变量,将干旱特征变量采用均匀分布随机化处理可以提高干旱历时序列的拟合精度。干旱特征变量序列的最优分布均为对数正态分布。④ SRI_ns和SRI_s的干旱特征变量的二维联合分布的最优Copula函数均为joe函数。通过对比干旱特征变量二维联合概率和重现期,SRI_ns可以缩小风险区间,增加干旱风险预警的精度,因此更适用于该研究区的干旱预测与风险评估。     

1470-1912年西北东部地区极端干旱事件的复原及分形特征研究

通过对西北东部地区1470-1912年干旱灾害历史资料的搜集整理,根据干旱发生强度、持续时间、发生范围,定义了强旱事件,建立了极旱因子模型,复原了443年西北东部地区极端干旱事件,并根据时间分形原理,挖掘出极旱事件时间序列的分维特征。经过对比分析得到以下结论：建立的模型结果与记载结果具有显著的相似性;全序列旱灾时间分维值随极旱强度的增加而降低,与极旱发生周期呈反位相关系;各类别极旱有自己的时间重演律,极旱程度越轻,无标度区越宽,分维值越高,短周期比较明显。     

Explosive volcanic eruptions—X. The influence of pyroclast size distributions and released magma gas contents on the eruption velocities of pyroclasts and gas in Hawaiian and Plinian eruptions

Previous treatments of the relationship between the mass fraction of released magma volatiles and the eruption speeds of gas and pyroclasts in steady explosive eruptions have not taken detailed account of the dynamic effects associated with the finite size distribution of the pyroclasts. When this is done, it is found that previously published estimates of exsolved magma volatile contents obtained from the analysis of pyroclast size distributions in near-vent deposits overestimate the volatile content by approximately 20 per cent in the case of Plinian eruptions. The discrepancy is much worse for pyroclast size distributions skewed towards coarse clasts, as is common in basaltic lava fountains; in such cases pyroclast dispersal studies may overestimate the exsolved magma volatile content by at least 200 per cent. An analogous problem arises if released magma volatile amounts deduced from studies of fluid inclusions in pyroclasts are inserted into most current computer models of eruption dynamics, but the gas eruption speeds deduced have an even larger error, being underestimated by up to 300 per cent in the case of coarse-grained eruptions. The more sophisticated of the currently available numerical models of eruption dynamics can in principle avoid this problem, but practical implementation limitations have so far prevented such models being run with a sufficiently wide range of grain sizes for the importance of these effects to be fully appreciated.     

Relocation optimization of electric cars in one-way car-sharing systems: modeling,exact solving and heuristics algorithms

Car-sharing system with electric cars is a very convenient service for urban transportation: it allows users to pick up a vehicle at a station and rent it during a short time. To manage this kind of system in the best way, it is necessary to solve the critical problem of vehicle stock imbalance across the stations. Several decision levels must be considered to balance the car distribution by taking into account the quality of service and the system operation cost. To this end, a linear programming model is proposed to formalize the problem in a mathematical framework, which allows the computation of optimal vehicle distribution strategies. To make our solution time efficient and usable for solving large problems, a greedy algorithm and a tabu search algorithm are proposed. These two algorithms are applied to the Auto Bleue network in Nice and its surrounding (France) using extensive simulations. Besides, an integrated mapping method is provided within the Geographical Information System QGIS to estimate flows and their locations. Numerical results demonstrate that the tabu search algorithm is able to find near-optimal solutions and good compromises between client satisfaction, number of staff agents and vehicles used, and computing time.     

国家基本/基准站地面气温资料城市化偏差订正

城市化偏差是中国地面气温观测记录中最大的系统性偏差,订正该偏差可为大尺度气候变化监测和研究提供准确的基础资料。论文介绍了用于单站地面月平均气温序列城市化偏差订正的一个方法,并利用该方法订正了685个国家基本/基准站1961—2015年地面年及月平均气温序列中的城市化偏差。采取自东往西迭代订正的方法,即从东往西逐经度订正,订正完的目标站也可作为参考站。首先,规定目标站的参考站在300 km范围内,并利用2站的去线性趋势年均气温的相关系数作为标准,规定相关系数最大且通过信度水平为0.005显著性检验的4个候选参考站作为该目标站的参考站;然后,对各个参考站年均气温与其对应目标站年均气温求相关,并以其平方为权重计算各参考站月和年均气温的平均值序列,即为各目标站年和月平均地面气温参考序列;其次,利用目标站气温序列趋势及其参考序列趋势之差作为总的订正值,订正目标站气温序列中包含的城市化偏差。较大的城市化偏差出现在华北地区、华中部分地区、东北北部、西南及西部部分地区,介于0.1~0.3 ℃/10 a;在中国西北部分地区、西藏西部及南部、东北南部、华南沿海、华东及华中个别站存在负偏差;对整个中国而言,相对城市化偏差为19.6%。以北京、武汉、银川、深圳作为华北、华中、西北和华南地区的大城市代表站,发现其在过去55 a的相对城市化偏差分别为67.0%、75.4%、32.7%和50.3%,与前人针对单站评估城市化影响的结果基本一致,说明论文的订正方法较为合理。论文介绍的城市化偏差订正方法,可用于订正中国等快速城市化地区地面气温观测资料的系统偏差,订正后的气温数据在很大程度上消除了城市化因素引起的不确定性。     

农业气象灾害风险分析初探

为了从经济效益方面描述农业气象灾害,本文在农业气象灾害风险体系的基础之上定义了风险链以及风险体系两个风险度,并简略地分析农业气象灾害风险的特点和分析方法。同时还阐明了进行农业气象灾害风险决策与风险管理的基本方法．     

黄河源区遥感数据的大气校正及其效果分析

利用6S模型结合暗目标法确定TM过境时的最优气象能见度,分别使用MODIS气溶胶产品(MOD04)、最优气象能见度作为TM的气溶胶光学厚度,对黄河源区的Landsat TM数据进行大气校正。以同步野外实测地面数据为标准,比较了两种气溶胶参数输入方法的校正结果,并从光谱曲线、植被指数、草地生物量的估算三方面探讨了大气校正的效果,两种气溶胶参数输入方法均可以对遥感图像进行有效的大气校正,消除因散射增加的辐射能量,同时补偿因吸收而损失的辐射能量。经过大气校正后的TM光谱更接近真实地表光谱,更有助于地物真实光谱信息的提取,同时对与该地区相似气候条件下影像的大气校正有借鉴意义。     

Decision-theoretic limits on earthquake prediction

I apply Decision Theory to the question of how accurate earthquake predictions must be to serve as a reliable basis for action. Even with optimistic estimates of the parameters involved, the lower bound on the required accuracy is extraordinarily demanding, being over 10 times higher than that of current meteorological forecasts. Given the abruptly self-organizing nature of earthquakes, it is extremely unlikely that precursors can attain such levels of accuracy. I therefore conclude that prediction of major earthquakes is, in any practical sense, impossible.     

The salinity of hypersaline brines: Concepts and misconceptions

Some widespread misconceptions about salinity are pointed out, explained and commented on. Definitions, units, and methods of salinity determination recommended for brines of moderate salinities may become unsuitable for highly saline brines. Various salinity units are examined and commented on, and density at a precisely monitored temperature is chosen as the preferable “substitute parameter” for salinity determination of hypersaline brines. It is shown that ambient air density during pycnometric measurements must be known as accurately as required of the brine's density, and that its value must be added to the direct pycnometric measurement. Variations of atmospheric pressure at the time of pycnometry must be taken into account if greater than 15 mB. For a salinity accuracy of ±0.02 per mille, as required for some physical and chemical studies, the temperature of the sample during salinity measurement must be monitored with an accuracy of at least 0.04°C. A definite curve in the ρ-S plane, corresponding to the conversion of salinity to density at a fixed temperature, andvice-versa, does not exist if the brine is saturated in one of its salts. Non-linearity in the equation of state is shown to affect the surface level drop due to evaporation; the effect is negligible at low salinities, but a 10 per cent correction is already required at the salinity found in the northern Red Sea (41 per mille). Reliable reference points for the conversion of absolute salinity to density of highly saline brines are not known, at present, as accurately as desirable; pending the accurate determination of such reference points, a substantial dilution of hypersaline brines (for the purpose of adapting them to conductivity measurements) would multiply the error range by more than a hundred fold. On the other hand, a minute dilution of hypersaline brine samples to prevent salt crystal formation is possible and would not bring about any major increase of the error range in their density (salinity) determination.     

黄河流域水资源演化模式分析

应用EMD-Hilbert变换方法分析花园口以上降水和天然径流近50年的资料系列。结果表明：黄河流域降水演化模式可由4个内在模函数以及一个单调递减的趋势项表示,而天然径流的演化则由3个基本模态和一个单调递减的趋势组成。黄河流域降水和天然径流的演化模式存在一定的相关关系,但两者之间并非一一对应的关系。从时间上看,不论是内在模函数还是趋势项,相对于降水,天然径流都表现出滞后的特点,一定程度上反映了下垫面调蓄作用对径流演化过程的影响。此外,从降水和天然径流内在模函数的周期可以推测黄河流域的水资源演化可能与大气低频振荡有关。     

全球降水计划IMERG和GSMaP反演降水在四川地区的精度评估

IMERG和GSMaP是全球降水计划（GPM）时代最主要的高分辨率降水产品。为研究其在中国四川地区的适用性,以中国气象局提供的自动气象站融合降水数据为参考基准,采用6种统计指数分析了IMERG（IMERG_Uncal, IMERG_Cal）和GSMaP（GSMaP_MVK, GSMaP_Gauge）系列产品在四川的误差特征。结果表明：① 在日和小时尺度上,GSMaP系列产品均高估地面降水观测,GSMaP_MVK高估最显著,校正产品GSMaP_Gauge的相关系数（CC）、相对偏差（BIAS）和均方根误差（RMSE）较GSMaP_MVK均有较大提高,尤其对川西高原降水的高估现象改善明显,而IMERG_Uncal存在低估川西高原降水、轻微高估四川盆地降水的问题,校正产品IMERG_Cal一定程度上降低了对川西高原降水的低估现象,但整体精度（CC, RMSE）提高不明显。② IMERG系列产品对降水事件的探测准确性更好,GSMaP_Gauge虽然在四川表现出较高的命中率（POD）,但存在较多的误报降水,在盆地和四川南部各产品均表现出较高的POD和关键成功指数（CSI）以及低误报率（FAR）,而四川西北部表现最差,尤其是在无自动站分布地区。③ 4套降水产品中,IMERG_Cal表现出最好的探测强降水和弱降水的能力,具有一定的监测极端降水的潜力。总体上,IMERG和GSMaP在盆地的反演精度优于高原山区,校正产品精度优于纯卫星产品,不同地形地区精度差异明显,表明对卫星降水产品进行不同地形误差订正仍是未来降水反演工作的重点和难点。