Application of Mineral Exploration Models and GIS to Generate Mineral Potential Maps as Input for Optimum Land-Use Planning in the Philippines

The inherent problems of classifying or inventorying potential mineral resources (as opposed to known mineral resources) pose specific challenges. In this paper, the application of a conceptual mineral exploration model and GIS to generate mineral potential maps as input to land-use policy decision-making is illustrated. We implement the criteria provided by a conceptual exploration model for nickeliferous-laterites by using a GIS to classify the nickeliferous-laterite potential of an area in the northeastern part of the Philippines. The spatial data inputs to the GIS are geological map data, topographic map data, and stream sediment point data. Processing of these data yields derivative maps, which are used as indicators of nickeliferous-laterite potential. The indicator maps then are integrated to furnish a nickeliferous-laterite potential map. This map is compared with present land-use classification and policy in the area. The results indicate high potential for nickeliferous-laterite occurrence in the area, but the zones of potential are in places where mineral resources development is prohibited. The prohibition was imposed before the nickeliferous-laterite potential was assessed by this study. Mineral potential classification therefore is a critical input to land-use policy-making so that prospective land is not alienated from future mineral resource development.     

Research planning in the face of change: the human role in reindeer/caribou systems

Reindeer/caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ) constitute a biological resource of vital importance to the physical and cultural survival of Arctic residents since time immemorial. Recent and possible future economic, social and ecological changes raise concern for sustainability of these resources and the well-being of those who depend on them. In February 1999 eighty scientists, reindeer/caribou users and resource managers gathered in Rovaniemi, Finland, for an interdisciplinary workshop to develop a circumpolar research plan that addressed the sustainability of humanreindeer/caribou systems. Small working groups addressed six themes: hunting systems, herding systems, rengeland/habitat protection, minimizing industrial impacts, maintaining the strength of indigenous cultures, and responding to global change. The resulting Research Plan cells for interdisciplinary comparative studies, advancement of tools for assessing cumulative effects, implementation of regional and a circumpolar monitoring and assessment programmes, and cultural studies on the transmission of knowledge. Cross-cutting directives for future research include:
• improving humans'ability to anticipate and respond to change;
• understanding better the dynamics of human-reindeer/caribou systems;
• developing research methods that are both more instructive and less intrusive;
• facilitating open communication among groups with interests in reindeer/caribou resources;
• organizing researchers into a strong, coordinated network;
• re-framing the conventional research paradigm to be more inclusive of differing cultural perspectives.
Three follow-up initiatives are proposed: 1) development of a web-based resource on the human role in reindeer/caribou systems (www.rangifer.net); establishment of a Profile of Herds database to support comparative research; and 3) convening of working groups to address specific problems identified by workshop participants.     

Quantitative assessment of future development of copper/silver resources in the Kootenai National Forest,Idaho/Montana: Part II—Economic and policy analysis

Quantitative assessments and analyses of mineral resources can provide important input to decisions affecting public lands. This article, a companion article to Spanski, 1992, presents an application of resource assessment and analysis tools developed by the U.S. Bureau of Mines and the U.S. Geological Survey to U.S. Forest Service lands in northwest Montana. The analytical system described here integrates mineral deposit models, mine and mill cost-estimation models, and relevant economic and policy assumptions to estimate potential mineral production and the associated direct and indirect mineral-related economic impacts that could follow development of minerals. Finally, the impacts of land-use policies are estimated using the model.     

Guiding Principles of USGS Methodology for Assessment of Undiscovered Conventional Oil and Gas Resources

During the last 30 years, the methodology for assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources used by the Geological Survey has undergone considerable change. This evolution has been based on five major principles. First, the U.S. Geological Survey has responsibility for a wide range of U.S. and world assessments and requires a robust methodology suitable for immaturely explored as well as maturely explored areas. Second, the assessments should be based on as comprehensive a set of geological and exploration history data as possible. Third, the perils of methods that solely use statistical methods without geological analysis are recognized. Fourth, the methodology and course of the assessment should be documented as transparently as possible, within the limits imposed by the inevitable use of subjective judgement. Fifth, the multiple uses of the assessments require a continuing effort to provide the documentation in such ways as to increase utility to the many types of users. Undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources are those recoverable volumes in undiscovered, discrete, conventional structural or stratigraphic traps. The USGS 2000 methodology for these resources is based on a framework of assessing numbers and sizes of undiscovered oil and gas accumulations and the associated risks. The input is standardized on a form termed the Seventh Approximation Data Form for Conventional Assessment Units. Volumes of resource are then calculated using a Monte Carlo program named Emc2, but an alternative analytic (non-Monte Carlo) program named ASSESS also can be used. The resource assessment methodology continues to change. Accumulation-size distributions are being examined to determine how sensitive the results are to size-distribution assumptions. The resource assessment output is changing to provide better applicability for economic analysis. The separate methodology for assessing continuous (unconventional) resources also has been evolving. Further studies of the relationship between geologic models of conventional and continuous resources will likely impact the respective resource assessment methodologies.     

西藏盐湖矿产资源遥感定量预测方法研究

西藏自治区地域广大,湖泊众多,盐湖矿产资源十分丰富,但调查研究程度较低,资源潜力不明,家底不清。以遥感信息为基础,采用多因素综合评判模型法进行盐湖矿产定量预测,初步摸清现阶段西藏盐湖矿产资源家底,为地方政府和有关部门进行盐湖矿产资源勘查开发提供了重要参考依据。该预测方法具有较强探索性,和已知查明资源量进行比较,预测结果基本可靠,是西部高海拔地区盐湖矿产资源快速评价的有效方法。     

Development of an Improved Methodology to Assess Potential Unconventional Gas Resources

Considering the important role played today by unconventional gas resources in North America and their enormous potential for the future around the world, it is vital to both policy makers and industry that the volumes of these resources and the impact of technology on these resources be assessed. To provide for optimal decision making regarding energy policy, research funding, and resource development, it is necessary to reliably quantify the uncertainty in these resource assessments. Since the 1970s, studies to assess potential unconventional gas resources have been conducted by various private and governmental agencies, the most rigorous of which was by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The USGS employed a cell-based, probabilistic methodology which used analytical equations to calculate distributions of the resources assessed. USGS assessments have generally produced distributions for potential unconventional gas resources that, in our judgment, are unrealistically narrow for what are essentially undiscovered, untested resources. In this article, we present an improved methodology to assess potential unconventional gas resources. Our methodology is a stochastic approach that includes Monte Carlo simulation and correlation between input variables. Application of the improved methodology to the Uinta–Piceance province of Utah and Colorado with USGS data validates the means and standard deviations of resource distributions produced by the USGS methodology, but reveals that these distributions are not right skewed, as expected for a natural resource. Our investigation indicates that the unrealistic shape and width of the gas resource distributions are caused by the use of narrow triangular input parameter distributions. The stochastic methodology proposed here is more versatile and robust than the USGS analytic methodology. Adoption of the methodology, along with a careful examination and revision of input distributions, should allow a more realistic assessment of the uncertainty surrounding potential unconventional gas resources.     

Sequential Simulation Approach to Modeling of Multi-seam Coal Deposits with an Application to the Assessment of a Louisiana Lignite

There are multiple ways to characterize uncertainty in the assessment of coal resources, but not all of them are equally satisfactory. Increasingly, the tendency is toward borrowing from the statistical tools developed in the last 50 years for the quantitative assessment of other mineral commodities. Here, we briefly review the most recent of such methods and formulate a procedure for the systematic assessment of multi-seam coal deposits taking into account several geological factors, such as fluctuations in thickness, erosion, oxidation, and bed boundaries. A lignite deposit explored in three stages is used for validating models based on comparing a first set of drill holes against data from infill and development drilling. Results were fully consistent with reality, providing a variety of maps, histograms, and scatterplots characterizing the deposit and associated uncertainty in the assessments. The geostatistical approach was particularly informative in providing a probability distribution modeling deposit wide uncertainty about total resources and a cumulative distribution of coal tonnage as a function of local uncertainty.     

Comparison of Methods Used to Estimate Conventional Undiscovered Petroleum Resources: World Examples

Various methods for assessing undiscovered oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquid resources were compared in support of the USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000. Discovery process, linear fractal, parabolic fractal, engineering estimates, PETRIMES, Delphi, and the USGS 2000 methods were compared. Three comparisons of these methods were made in: (1) the Neuquen Basin province, Argentina (different assessors, same input data); (2) provinces in North Africa, Oman, and Yemen (same assessors, different methods); and (3) the Arabian Peninsula, Arabian (Persian) Gulf, and North Sea (different assessors, different methods). A fourth comparison (same assessors, same assessment methods but different geologic models), between results from structural and stratigraphic assessment units in the North Sea used only the USGS 2000 method, and hence compared the type of assessment unit rather than the method. In comparing methods, differences arise from inherent differences in assumptions regarding: (1) the underlying distribution of the parent field population (all fields, discovered and undiscovered), (2) the population of fields being estimated; that is, the entire parent distribution or the undiscovered resource distribution, (3) inclusion or exclusion of large outlier fields; (4) inclusion or exclusion of field (reserve) growth, (5) deterministic or probabilistic models, (6) data requirements, and (7) scale and time frame of the assessment. Discovery process, Delphi subjective consensus, and the USGS 2000 method yield comparable results because similar procedures are employed. In mature areas such as the Neuquen Basin province in Argentina, the linear and parabolic fractal and engineering methods were conservative compared to the other five methods and relative to new reserve additions there since 1995. The PETRIMES method gave the most optimistic estimates in the Neuquen Basin. In less mature areas, the linear fractal method yielded larger estimates relative to other methods. A geologically based model, such as one using the total petroleum system approach, is preferred in that it combines the elements of petroleum source, reservoir, trap and seal with the tectono-stratigraphic history of basin evolution with petroleum resource potential. Care must be taken to demonstrate that homogeneous populations in terms of geology, geologic risk, exploration, and discovery processes are used in the assessment process. The USGS 2000 method (7th Approximation Model, EMC computational program) is robust; that is, it can be used in both mature and immature areas, and provides comparable results when using different geologic models (e.g. stratigraphic or structural) with differing amounts of subdivisions, assessment units, within the total petroleum system.     

Annotated bibliography of methodology for assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources

An annotated bibliography of methodology of assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources is presented as a useful reference for those engaged in resource assessment. The articles that are included deal only with quantitative assessment of undiscovered or inferred resources. the articles in this bibliography are classified largely according to the major assessment method that was applied in each situation. Major assessment methods include areal and volumetric yield methods, field size distributions, historical extrapolation, deposit modeling, organic geochemical mass balance methods, and direct expert assessment. Other categories include mathematical tools, reserve growth/confirmation, quantitative characterization of undiscovered resources, and general topics. For the purpose of future updates, we solicit contributions of articles that may have been missed in the preparation of this bibliography.     

Conflation and aggregation of spatial data improve predictive models for species with limited habitats: A case of the threatened yellow-billed cuckoo in Arizona,USA

Riparian vegetation provides important wildlife habitat in the southwestern United States, but limited distributions and spatial complexity often leads to inaccurate representation in maps used to guide conservation. We test the use of data conflation and aggregation on multiple vegetation/land-cover maps to improve the accuracy of habitat models for the threatened western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus occidentalis). We used species observations (n = 479) from a state-wide survey to develop habitat models from 1) three vegetation/land-cover maps produced at different geographic scales ranging from state to national, and 2) new aggregate maps defined by the spatial agreement of cover types, which were defined as high (agreement = all data sets), moderate (agreement ≥ 2), and low (no agreement required). Model accuracies, predicted habitat locations, and total area of predicted habitat varied considerably, illustrating the effects of input data quality on habitat predictions and resulting potential impacts on conservation planning. Habitat models based on aggregated and conflated data were more accurate and had higher model sensitivity than original vegetation/land-cover, but this accuracy came at the cost of reduced geographic extent of predicted habitat. Using the highest performing models, we assessed cuckoo habitat preference and distribution in Arizona and found that major watersheds containing high-probably habitat are fragmented by a wide swath of low-probability habitat. Focus on riparian restoration in these areas could provide more breeding habitat for the threatened cuckoo, offset potential future habitat losses in adjacent watershed, and increase regional connectivity for other threatened vertebrates that also use riparian corridors.     

Land use and land cover change in Greater Dhaka, Bangladesh: Using remote sensing to promote sustainable urbanization

This study evaluates land use/cover changes and urban expansion in Greater Dhaka, Bangladesh, between 1975 and 2003 using satellite images and socio-economic data. Spatial and temporal dynamics of land use/cover changes were quantified using three Landsat images, a supervised classification algorithm and the post-classification change detection technique in GIS. Accuracy of the Landsat-derived land use/cover maps ranged from 85 to 90%. The analysis revealed that substantial growth of built-up areas in Greater Dhaka over the study period resulted significant decrease in the area of water bodies, cultivated land, vegetation and wetlands. Urban land expansion has been largely driven by elevation, population growth and economic development. Rapid urban expansion through infilling of low-lying areas and clearing of vegetation resulted in a wide range of environmental impacts, including habitat quality. As reliable and current data are lacking for Bangladesh, the land use maps produced in this study will contribute to both the development of sustainable urban land use planning decisions and also for forecasting possible future changes in growth patterns.     

武汉汉阳湖区土地资源评价研究

在Arc/info地理信息系统支持下,以武汉汉阳湖区为例,选取自然生态指标、社会经济指标和区位指标,建立了土地资源评价体系,对汉阳湖区的土地资源质量进行了科学评价。评价中运用层次分析法确定评价因子的权重,同时利用Arc/info系统强大的空间分析和图形操作功能,将图形和属性数据统一管理,加强了评价的整体性和准确性。评价结果符合当地实际情况,评价指标的选取以及评价所采用的方法体系,为城市湖泊地区进行土地资源评价提供了参考。     

全球环境变化对我国区域发展的可能影响评述

随着环境问题的日益突出,全球环境变化的区域响应已成为我国全球变化研究的优先领域和热点问题之一。国内外学者就全球问题与区域问题的结合达成共识:全球性问题的研究需要由区域工作来完成;区域性研究必须体现全球性问题。本文介绍了全球变化对区域发展影响评价的基本方法,特别是IPCC评价报告中采用的区域脆弱性、敏感性评价方法;概述了我国未来50年环境变化的可能情景;从自然生态系统变化、水资源短缺、沙漠化、农业生产等方面评述了全球环境变化对我国区域发展可能影响研究的进展和成果,最后指出了全球变化区域响应研究存在的问题,并对其发展方向作了展望。     

Development and Implementation of a Bayesian-based Aquifer Vulnerability Assessment in Florida

The Florida Aquifer Vulnerability Assessment (FAVA) was designed to provide a tool for environmental, regulatory, resource management, and planning professionals to facilitate protection of groundwater resources from surface sources of contamination. The FAVA project implements weights-of-evidence (WofE), a data-driven, Bayesian-probabilistic model to generate a series of maps reflecting relative aquifer vulnerability of Florida’s principal aquifer systems. The vulnerability assessment process, from project design to map implementation is described herein in reference to the Floridan aquifer system (FAS). The WofE model calculates weighted relationships between hydrogeologic data layers that influence aquifer vulnerability and ambient groundwater parameters in wells that reflect relative degrees of vulnerability. Statewide model input data layers (evidential themes) include soil hydraulic conductivity, density of karst features, thickness of aquifer confinement, and hydraulic head difference between the FAS and the watertable. Wells with median dissolved nitrogen concentrations exceeding statistically established thresholds serve as training points in the WofE model. The resulting vulnerability map (response theme) reflects classified posterior probabilities based on spatial relationships between the evidential themes and training points. The response theme is subjected to extensive sensitivity and validation testing. Among the model validation techniques is calculation of a response theme based on a different water-quality indicator of relative recharge or vulnerability: dissolved oxygen. Successful implementation of the FAVA maps was facilitated by the overall project design, which included a needs assessment and iterative technical advisory committee input and review. Ongoing programs to protect Florida’s springsheds have led to development of larger-scale WofE-based vulnerability assessments. Additional applications of the maps include land-use planning amendments and prioritization of land purchases to protect groundwater resources.     

Cause-Effect Analysis in Assessment of Mineral Resources

Cause-effect analyses is a deterministic methodology intended for processing qualitative (e.g. texts, conventional maps) and mixed, qualitative and quantitative, data. The main idea, employed in cause-effect analysis, is the plurality and interaction of causes. This idea is described by mathematical logic formulae that can be converted into a single Boolean equation. The latter represents a mathematical model of a general shape of cause-effect relations for the study problem. In particular, such a model can express relations between some property of the mineralization and features of other geological phenomena. By processing data, logical dependencies satisfying to the theoretical model are determined in a data file. These dependences, expressed by Boolean function formulae, describe cause-effect relations for a case study, and they are used for predicting. Software realizing the cause-effect analysis is an expert system with artificial intelligence capabilities. There are two methods of using the cause-effect analysis in assessment of mineral resources. The first method consists in detecting the regularity in locations of known mineral deposits and occurrences with the following using the regularity formula for generation of predictive maps. The second method is the evaluation of individual mineral occurrences by obtained Boolean formulae expressing cause-effect relations between deposit sizes and geological environment of deposits. Both methods are illustrated by case studies of predicting gold-bearing deposits of Middle Asia in the former USSR.     

Fundamental issues in quantitative estimation of mineral resources

Several issues considered to be fundamental in quantitative estimation of mineral resources and selection of mineral targets are addressed. Integration of multiple data sets, either by experts or by statistical methods, has become a common practice in estimation of mineral potential. Several major problems in data integration must be solved to significantly improve mineral resource estimation. Issues related to randomness of mineral endowment, basic statistical tools, exceptionalness of ore, and economic truncation and translation are discussed in the first part of the article. A number of important technical problems in data integration are also identified; they include data compilation, information enhancement, information synthesis, and target selection.     

Birdwatching tourism infrastructure planning in the Ria Formosa Natural Park (Portugal)

We investigated the Ria Formosa Natural Park located in the lagoon of the same name; it is famous for a great diversity of bird species and offers outstanding possibilities for the development of a special type of ecological tourism, birdwatching, that attracts birdwatchers from across the globe. It is shown that the existing natural resources on this territory should be complemented by an appropriate infrastructure and the rules in order to ensure tourism sustainability and development in connection with a high ecological significance of the territory and a heavy demand from visitors. Using landscape approach and methods of geoinformationbased landscape-interpretation mapping, extrapolating the density of different bird species, calculating integral indicators for assessing ornithological resources as well as infrastructure development techniques, we undertook a planning procedure of the birdwatching tourism infrastructure, including trails and observation points. As initial data, we used vegetation and soil maps, topographic maps, space images, data on the density of bird species in different biotopes, and field investigations. We generated the population density maps for each bird species as well as the biotope assessment map for all bird species, based on calculating the sum of the products of densities of each species by the ecological value of the species. Also, the landscape map was used to develop the territorial zoning map, having regard to the possibilities and limitations of constructing trails of different classes. Using spatial cross-matching of the assessment maps for ornithological resources and the trail zoning map, we identified places holding promise for the construction of the birdwatching tourism infrastructure. It is shown that the suggested method provides a means of making a proximate assessment of the territory from different perspectives, based on knowledge of a territory’s landscape structure; it is a prompt and inexpensive technique as contrasted to field investigations of the entire territory; however, it calls for further detailed investigation into promising areas.     

Accounting for Depletion of Oil and Gas Resources in Malaysia

Since oil and gas are non-renewable resources, it is important to identify the extent to which they have been depleted. Such information will contribute to the formulation and evaluation of appropriate sustainable development policies. This paper provides an assessment of the changes in the availability of oil and gas resources in Malaysia by first compiling the physical balance sheet for the period 2000–2007, and then assessing the monetary balance sheets for the said resource by using the Net Present Value method. Our findings show serious reduction in the value of oil reserves from 2001 to 2005, due to changes in crude oil prices, and thereafter the depletion rates decreased. In the context of sustainable development planning, albeit in the weak sustainability sense, it will be important to ascertain if sufficient reinvestments of the estimated resource rents in related or alternative capitals are being attempted by Malaysia. For the study period, the cumulative resource rents were to the tune of RM61 billion. Through a depletion or resource rents policy, the estimated quantum may guide the identification of a reinvestment threshold (after considering needed capital investment for future development of the industry) in light of ensuring the future productive capacity of the economy at the time when the resource is exhausted.     

新疆矿产资源开发对区域发展和城市演化的影响(英文)

The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between mineral resources exploitation and economic and urban development in Xinjiang. The article summarizes the mineral resource exploitation development of Xinjiang especially over the last 50 years, and investigates energy industries and their driving forces, directions, and economic impact on the oasis urban system evolution in Xinjiang. Methods like correlation analysis, location quotient and elastic coefficient are employed in the presentation and discussion, and also field reconnaissance surveys, interviews and secondary sources are used. The result shows Xinjiang's economic growth is promoted by the contributions of the increasing mineral resource industry which promotes economic development by accelerating infrastructure construction, developing industry and raising revenue and fixed investment. Mineral exploitation in recent years had profound impacts on urban development as a growth engine. The evolution of urban system has a close relationship with resource exploitation, and statistical results provide strong evidence to support the argument that mineral resource exploitation has promoted the growth of built-up areas and its expansion patterns in Xinjiang, especially regions along the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains.     

Exploitation of mineral resource and its influence on regional development and urban evolution in Xinjiang,China

The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between mineral resources exploitation and economic and urban development in Xinjiang. The article summarizes the mineral resource exploitation development of Xinjiang especially over the last 50 years, and investigates energy industries and their driving forces, directions, and economic impact on the oasis urban system evolution in Xinjiang. Methods like correlation analysis, location quotient and elastic coefficient are employed in the presentation and discussion, and also field reconnaissance surveys, interviews and secondary sources are used. The result shows Xinjiang＇s economic growth is promoted by the contributions of the increasing mineral resource industry which promotes economic development by accelerating infrastructure construction, developing industry and raising revenue and fixed investment. Mineral exploitation in recent years had profound impacts on urban development as a growth engine. The evolution of urban system has a close relationship with resource exploitation, and statistical results provide strong evidence to support the argument that mineral resource exploitation has promoted the growth of built-up areas and its expansion patterns in Xinjiang, especially regions along the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains.