Evaluation of parameters affecting earthquake damage by decision tree techniques

Earthquake damages are assessed based on a holistic approach using structural as well as non-structural factors to model earthquake damage distributions with Decision Tree Techniques, using the Answer Tree program and the damage data from recent major earthquakes in Turkey. The damage dataset consists of approximately 9,400 buildings that were surveyed to evaluate the factors affecting building damage after Erzincan [1992], Dinar [1995], and Kocaeli [1999] earthquakes. The earthquake damage is defined as the dependent variable, while earthquake magnitude (M), intensity (I) in the city, peak ground acceleration (PGA) in each city, epicenter distance (ED), building types (BT), number of storeys (NS), presence of soft storey (SS), building position (BP) on the site, and site conditions (SC) are independent variables in the proposed model. The damage level (DL) was classified with respect to red, yellow, and green codes. The main purpose was (1) to identify the factors controlling building damage during earthquakes; (b) to determine the most significant factor; (c) to evaluate the effects of different factors for different earthquakes; (d) to develop damage distribution models for different subgroups based on the Decision Tree Techniques.

The Role of Earthquake-Related Effects in Urban Complexes

A number of cases where earthquake-induced damage was massive or presented interesting distribution patterns in recent earthquakes are presented.The highly serious damage along reactivated seismic faults and fractures is discussedfor the earthquakes of Pyrgos (Greece), Egio (Greece) and Kobe (Japan). Additionally, we describe characteristic types of building failure in the earthquake of Egio,caused by the coexistence of surficial faulting and liquefaction. Of particularinterest is the damage pattern in the Kobe and Dinar earthquakes, attributed to seismicwave directivity, caused by migration of the earthquake source. Finally, a specialcase of building damage is described for the case of the Adana, Turkey earthquake,which is connected to the shape and the azimuthal location of buildings in respectto the epicentre. All the above cases are valuable sources of information and can be utilizedin the reduction of seismic risk in constructions and urban complexes.     

地震震源与灾害评估分析:中国四川2008年5月12日Ms 8.0汶川地震

汶川5月12日8.0级地震在构造上起因于印度板块与欧亚板块以每年约5 cm的速度聚敛,并因此而引起青藏高原的地壳物质向四川盆地及中国东南大陆运移.主震震源及余震活动集中于以龙门山为中轴的一条长约350 km、宽约100 km的地震活动带.震源深度一般分布丁地壳脆性-韧性转换边界以上约10～20 km区间的地壳震源层之中,属浅源构造地震.主要震源机制与龙门山构造运动方式密切相关,以其地壳厚度向西急剧加厚、重力梯度带、高波速比(Vp/Vs～2.2)等深部异常及逆冲断层兼具走滑性质的地质构造为特征.在震源辐射、路径传播和场地效应研究的基础上,分别计算并比较了岩石和土壤条件下的地震响应谱,特别强调了土壤条件下的场地放大效应;同时对与地震安全性有关的一些问题如地质灾害、地震频谱设计、地震早期预警系统及中、长期至短期地震预报等进行了探讨;特别提供了一个由加权平均计算、以岩石条件下震波衰减模式为基础的地震频谱设计参考实例.地震构造与动力学研究可融人工程地质与环境工程等学科发展.经历汶川地震考验的一些新近设计和建设的工程项目可为今后改进工程建筑规范与标准提供重要而有益的参考.地震预报是当今一大难题,但需探索研究,不可懈怠.地震减灾与预防足目前比较切合实际的安全举措.     

地震研究进展与趋势——全球地震科学钻探研究综述

近年来大地震频繁发生,造成了巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失,认识地震和地震发生机制已成为地质学家和地球物理学家共同的奋斗目标。科学钻探是获取地下深部物质、了解深部信息的最直接、最有效、最可靠的方法,因此,科学钻探是认识和揭示地震断裂作用的最佳手段。本文介绍了目前世界上主要的地震科学钻探计划,包括位于环太平洋地震带的日本野岛(Nojima)断层科学钻探计划、台湾车笼埔断裂钻探计划(TCDP)、圣安德烈斯断裂深部观测钻探计划(SAFOD)、新西兰深部断层钻探计划(DFDP)、日本南海海槽发震带试验钻探计划(NanTroSEIZE)、日本海沟地震快速钻探计划(JFAST)和大陆内部地震的汶川地震断裂带科学钻探计划(WFSD),简要概括了这些科学钻探计划所取得的有关地震研究的重要进展与贡献,并且通过这些成果探讨了未来地震研究趋势。     

Risk-based damage potential and loss estimation of earthquake scenarios in the moderate endangered Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol

Although geophysical hazards like earthquakes can lead to tremendous losses, they are often neglected or not considered in risk analyses within an Alpine context. However, lately and especially in the framework of multi-risk analyses, earthquake risk studies are being increasingly implemented within an Alpine relation too. The presented study was conducted to quantitatively estimate potential consequences of earthquake events in the Austrian Province of Tyrol. The methodological study framework integrates the general risk components (i) hazard, (ii) elements at risk, and (iii) vulnerability. They are considered on a regional scale, accepting pragmatic approaches with simplified procedures and assumptions. Scenarios for different potential epicentres were calculated based on two different macroseismic hazard maps derived from punctual ground motion values of the building code and microzonation studies. The maps take into account the design event definitions of existing building code and a, thereupon based, simple and mono-causal Maximum Credible Earthquake assumption. Corresponding elements at risk and damage potentials were identified and potential losses were estimated under consideration of different vulnerability approaches. It can be shown that most scenarios based on the design event definition of the Austrian and European building codes, respectively have the potential of building and inventory losses solely of some hundred million up to approximately €4 billion. Additional, building and inventory losses of maximum credible events can lead to losses of more than €7 billion merely in connection with the primary earthquake event neglecting all other cascading effects.     

Tsunamis in and near Greece and their relation to the earthquake focal mechanisms

The major earthquake-induced tsunamis reliable known to have occurred in and near Greece since antiquity are considered in the light of the recently obtained reliable data on the mechanisms and focal depths of the earthquakes occurring here. (The earthquake data concern the major shocks of the period 1962–1986.) First, concise information is given on the most devastating tsunamis. Then the relation between the (estimated) maximum tsunami intensity and the earthquake parameters (mechanism and focal depth) is examined. It is revealed that the most devastating tsunamis took place in areas (such as the western part of the Corinthiakos Gulf, the Maliakos Gulf, and the southern Aegean Sea) where earthquakes are due to shallow normal faulting. Other major tsunamis were nucleated along the convex side of the Hellenic arc, characterized by shallow thrust earthquakes. It is probably somewhere there (most likely south of Crete) that the region's largest known tsunami occurred in AD 365, claiming many lives and causing extensive devastation in the entire eastern Mediterranean. Such big tsunamis seem to have a return period of well over 1000 years and can be generated by large shallow earthquakes associated with thrust faulting beneath the Hellenic trench, where the African plate subduces under the Euroasian plate. Lesser tsunamis are known in the northernmost part of the Aegean Sea and in the Sea of Marmara, where strike-slip faulting is observed. Finally, an attempt is made to combine the tsunami and earthquake data into a map of the region's main tsunamigenic zones (areas of the sea bed believed responsible for past tsunamis and expected to nucleate tsunamis in the future).     

京津冀地区历史地震事件时空特征研究*

受环太平洋地震带影响,华北平原地区地震频发,尤其是处于中国首都经济圈的京津冀地区的地震事件备受关注。通过对历史文献资料及地震台网记录中的地震事件统计、分析,重建该地区地震事件历史并获取其潜在的空间分布特征及时间规律,对未来地震事件的早期预警具有重要参考意义。分析结果表明,公元前231年至公元2018年期间京津冀地区发生的1044起地震事件中,以有感地震和中强地震为主,小地震、强烈地震以及大地震发生频次较低。地震记录完整性分析结果表明,除小地震外,其他等级地震记录自公元1400年以来基本完整。在空间分布上,京津冀地区历史地震呈“T”字形分布,沿1条北西—南东走向地震带和1条北东—南西走向地震带分布。在时间上,京津冀地区地震事件呈现出阶段性的变化,在公元1480—1680年间以及1950年以来2个时间段内较为活跃,发生频率较高,频谱分析结果进一步表明地震记录存在45年的复发周期。在月际尺度上,地震事件同样存在季节性差异且多发于夏秋季节,同时地震密集区域在年内呈现出自西向东迁移的现象。最后,根据历史地震事件发生的时间规律,在未来一段时间内京津冀地区仍将处于地震活跃期,存在发生强震的风险。     

Statistical aspects of Parkfield earthquake sequence and Parkfield prediction experiment

This note discusses three interconnected statistical problems concerning the Parkfield sequence of moderate earthquakes and the Parkfield prediction experiment: (a) Is it possible that the quasi-periodic Parkfield sequence of characteristic earthquakes is no uncommon, specific phenomenon (the research hypothesis), but can be explained by a preferential selection from available earthquake catalogs? To this end we formulate the null hypothesis (earthquakes occur according to the Poisson process in time and their size follows the Gutenberg-Richter relation). We test whether the null hypothesis can be rejected as an explanation for the Parkfield sequence. (b) If the null hypothesis cannot be refuted, what is the probability of magnitude m ≥ 6 earthquake occurrence in the Parkfield region? (c) The direct goal of the Parkfield experiment is the registration of precursory phenomena prior to a m6 earthquake. However, in the absence of the characteristic earthquake, can the experiment resolve which of the two competing hypotheses is true in a reasonable time? Statistical analysis is hindered by an insufficiently rigorous definition of the research model and inadequate or ambiguous data. However, we show that the null hypothesis cannot be decisively rejected. The quasi-periodic pattern of intermediate size earthquakes in the Parkfield area is a statistical event likely to occur by chance if it has been preferentially selected from available earthquake catalogs. The observed magnitude-frequency curves for small and intermediate earthquakes in the Parkfield area agree with the theoretical distribution computed on the basis of a modified Gutenberg-Richter law (gamma distribution), using deformation rates for the San Andreas fault. We show that the size distribution of the Parkfield characteristic earthquakes can also be attributed to selection bias. According to the null hypothesis, the yearly probability of a m ≥ 6 earthquake originating in the Parkfield area is less than 1%, signifying that several more decades of observation may be needed before the expected event occurs. By its design, the Parkfield experiment cannot be expected to yield statistically significant conclusions on the validity of the research hypothesis for many decades.     

The Major Gulf of the Aqaba Earthquake, 22 November 1995 – Maximum Intensity Distribution

The major earthquake of 22 November 1995, with a moment magnitude M_W = 7.1 and a local magnitude M_L 6.2, was the beginning of a seismic swarm that occurred in the central part of the Gulf of Aqaba. During this swarm, thousands of earthquakes occurred with local magnitude ranging between 2 and 6.2 from 22 November 1996 to 31 December 1997, when 2089 earthquakes were detected and/or analyzed by the Jordan Seismological Observatory (JSO). The major earthquake strongly affected the near shoreline cities (Figure 1). The maximum observed intensity on these cities was VIII on the modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) scale. A questionnaire was distributed in the main cities of Jordan one week after the major earthquake. The results of this investigation, which demonstrated the observed intensity distribution for Aqaba city, shows a relationship between local conditions, such as geological foundations and topographical characters, and the extent of the destruction. This conclusion was supported by the maximum peak ground acceleration (PGA) measurements inside Aqaba and Eilat cities. From the results of this questionnaire compiled inside Jordan, and other reports and readings compiled from other nearby countries outside Jordan, a preliminary regional iso-intensity map for this major earthquake of 22 November 1995 is presented in this study.     

中国大陆西部及邻区板内8级大地震活动过程和趋势预测初步研究

中国大陆西部及邻区是全球 8级大地震最为活跃的地区之一。自 180 0年以来该区板内 8级大地震共发生了 16次 ,2 0 0 1年昆仑山口西 8.1级大地震 (36 .1°N ,90 .9°E)是在 195 7年蒙古 8.3级大地震之后 4 4a发生的。研究表明该区 8级大地震的活动过程可能存在相对平静 (1812— 190 2年 )和相对活跃 (190 3— 195 7年 )交替的幕式或轮回过程的性质。 195 7年蒙古地震之后可能是一次新的轮回开始 ,2 0 0 1年昆仑山口西地震是新轮回的第二次地震 ,按照轮回过程中事件发生频度是时间的指数函数关系的假定 ,该区下一次 8级大地震可能约在 2 0 2 6年发生。如果假定该过程相当接近泊松过程。那么 ,在 2 0 0 5 ,2 0 10年和 2 0 15年前至少发生一次 8级大地震的泊松概率 ,分别是 0 .2 9,0 .5 3和 0 .70。     

地震预测:从芦山地震到大陆地震

自从1990年以来,通过对青藏高原的调查和研究,认识到下地壳流动同步形成盆地和造山带,并受控于相关洋盆地幔软流圈向大陆的顺层流动和底辟作用。下地壳不均匀流动通过韧脆性中地壳热能-应变能转换孕育地震,部分发震能量通过上地壳脆性断层释放。在地震孕育过程中通常会伴生跨年度干旱和异常降雨,构成热灾害链。近5年内青藏高原东部连续发生汶川、玉树、芦山大地震,形成于从亚东流经羊八井、安多、玉树并分支流向汶川和芦山—康定的下地壳"热河"的仰冲式和侧冲式撞击作用。从2008年9月以来连续发表5篇论文,根据地壳热构造和热灾害链的时空结构对芦山地震的三要素进行了长期和中期预测。2008年9月预测从2013年开始可能发生大地震,2012年9月将鲜水河—安宁河—小江异常热流构造带5年内将发生多个7级地震的首个大震锁定在芦山或西昌。芦山地震只释放了亚东—羊八井—安多—玉树—鲜水河—安宁河—小江"热河"剩余热能中的一小部分,在西昌—会理—昭通地区、道孚—康定地区、通海—石屏地区近5年内很可能发生4个7级左右的地震。此外,华北典型的热灾害链结构表明震情严峻,环渤海地区近3年内很可能发生大地震。从地震热流体撞击机理与地震异常之间的关联性出发,提出了动态立体监测及短临预测地震的思路和方法。     

Faulty construction: Earthquakes and the culture of prevention in California

In the last half of the twentieth century, urban Californians came to expect that engineering solutions would overcome the threat of natural seismic activities. This sanguine attitude is rooted in the rise of urban/industrial society, which resulted in huge capital investments in modern cities, complex infrastructures, and made residents increasingly dependent on centralized services for water, fuel, food, transportation, communication, and shelter. While peril from earthquakes seldom concerned people in the rural/agrarian world, the nature of the modern city enormously heightened the risk of ruinous loss to human life and property from natural disasters. The cataclysmic earthquake that wreaked havoc on San Francisco in 1906 plainly illustrated this, and in its wake engineers and geologists developed a sustained interest in understanding seismic activity and constructing earthquake-safe buildings.The study of earthquakes and aseismic building construction evolved with each new earthquake. Earthquake intensities and ground motions were measured and compared. Fallen and standing structures were studied. Chasing earthquakes became a way of life for some investigators, as they gained confidence that they could make modern cities safe against tremors. Over time a culture of prevention emerged, initially fostered by engineers and geologists, eventually sustained by those who invested in the modern city – capitalists and governing officials – and ultimately embraced by the general public. Thus, Californians became believers in a culture of prevention grounded in societal confidence that people can control the natural world with science and technology.     

Development and application of data collection forms for post-earthquake surveys of structural damage and human casualties

To reduce loss of life and injury resulting from earthquakes, the relationship between earthquake-induced building failure and injury severity and distribution needs to be clarified. For this purpose, a series of data collection forms were developed to collect pertinent data for post-event analysis and to provide a basis for structural triage in the field shortly following an earthquake for search and rescue purposes. A companion paper described the identification of variables affecting the outcome of an occupant of a damaged building and the classification of these variables into three levels of priority for data collection. This paper continues the development by describing the design of the data collection forms and the application of the forms to damaged buildings from past earthquakes. These forms represent a significant departure from existing forms in that they consider both casualties and building damage jointly, and in a consistent format.     

2015尼泊尔大地震及喜马拉雅造山带未来地震趋势

2015年4月25日尼泊尔M_s 8.1级大地震是发生在喜马拉雅造山带中段的低角度逆冲断层运动, 特点是震源很浅, 震中烈度达Ⅺ度, 震害严重。破裂带走向北西西—南东东, 穿越尼泊尔首都加德满都, 使首都建筑遭受严重破坏。该震是1934年以来尼泊尔最大地震, 标志着喜马拉雅带自1950年以来半个世纪的平静期已经结束。自2005年进入新活动期, 至2015年尼泊尔大地震发生已达到活动高潮。预计将持续十到几十年。根据历史地震资料分析, 今后可能沿喜马拉雅带走向发生纵向迁移, 将在喜马拉雅带东段发生更大的地震, 从而使地震高潮达到顶峰而结束, 可能对我国西藏东南、不丹和印度边界产生破坏。另外还可能沿着与喜马拉雅带走向垂直方向向北迁移(即横向迁移), 在几年之内即可在西藏、青海引起破坏性地震, 需要相关省市做好监测预报和防灾工作。      

1996～2005年中国大陆震害情况与减灾建议

地震是典型的突发性地质灾害,破坏性极大.本文首先对1996～2005年这10年间的大陆地震发生情况以及地震灾害情况进行了统计分析,列举了直接经济损失超过1亿元的重大地震灾害,指出大陆防震减灾要有地域特点;然后提出了一些防震减灾建议,如注意防范地震引发的次生灾害,加强建筑抗震设计和加固,推广使用现代信息技术,积极开展防震减灾能力评价,通过合理的城市规划和土地利用规划来减轻地震灾害.     

Test of Source-Parameter Inversion of Intensity Data

We demonstrate that the approximate source kinematics of the San Fernando, 1971 earthquake can be back-predicted by analysing its macroseismic intensity data set (felt reports) objectively and quantitatively. This is done by inverting either the data set of the intensity values observed in all sites, or the intensities tessellated with the Voronoi polygons technique. It is shown that the kinematic characteristics found following our method (epicentral coordinates, source depth, seismic moment, rupture length, Mach number, fault plane solution) match those determined by other authors, via instrumental measurements, rather well. The prerequisite for obtaining these results is that local amplification must not affect groups of neighboring sites. It was possible to invert the U.S.G.S. ``felt reports' for the source because this data set is sufficiently uncontaminated by local site responses, and retains relevant regional traces of source effects. Isoseismal maps cannot be safely used for this task, because qualitative drawing criteria give subjective results. Isoseismals, based on incomplete space frequency samplings, give rise to spurious effects, whereas the Voronoi polygons produce easy-to-grasp, quantitative and objective, representations of macroseismic intensity data. The tests performed, up to now on a series of earthquakes, suggest that the combined use of tessellation and of our KF model is promising mostly for inverting intensities of preinstrumental earthquakes.     

地震的多重分形统计特征研究

讨论了地震分布的多重分形统计特征。研究地震多重分形性质的计算方法及其应用于地震预报的可能性。采用推广Ｇｒａｓｓｂｅｒｇｅｒ－Ｐｒｏｃａｃｃｉａ算法从典型震区的地震数据计算地震多重分形分布的广义维数谱以确立较敏感的强震前兆，讨论了该算法的精度，数据量要求及适用范围。     

云南抚仙湖近千年地震事件记录

中国是世界上地震多发的地区之一。在各省份中,处于中国西南部的云南省是地震发生最多的省份之一。云南省省会昆明以南60 km处的抚仙湖位于小江地震带和通海-石屏地震带的交汇处,该地区的地震频次又居云南省之首。如果能在抚仙湖的沉积物中找到历史地震的自然记录并解释其机理,就意味着发现了一个由抚仙湖自然形成的地震记录仪。提供了证明抚仙湖区域历史地震自然记录存在的证据---抚仙湖沉积物的磁化率。我们在抚仙湖的中心地带、水深108 m处,钻取到了170 cm长的抚仙湖沉积物剖面,经测试证明它对应着近1 000年,约公元1025年至今的沉积年代。在研究中,沉积物磁化率的峰值突变与过去1 000年中许多有历史记载的地震事件相吻合。此外,一些尚没有记载的古地震事件也通过对湖底沉积物磁化率的分析而得以发现。     

桂林附近陷落地震分布,形成及特征

隐落地震是石灰岩喀斯特区溶洞或上洞塌陷所引起的特殊类型的地震,在我国南方及西南喀斯特区域分布较为广泛,是一类低震级高烈度的地震,在震中区造成较大的震灾。本文以桂林附近喀斯特区为研究范围,从古往今来的地震记录中分析提炼出其分布、形成及特征。     

The devastating Muzaffarabad earthquake of 8 October 2005: New insights into Himalayan seismicity and tectonics

The recent earthquake of 8 October 2005 in the Muzaffarabad region in western Himalaya destroyed several parts of Pakistan and the north Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. The earthquake of magnitude 7.6 claimed more than 80,000 lives, clearly exposing the poor standards of building construction — a major challenge facing the highly populated, earthquake prone, third world nations today. In this paper, we examine variations in the stress field, seismicity patterns, seismic source character, tectonic setting, plate motion velocities, GPS results, and the geodynamic factors relating to the geometry of the underlying subsurface structure and its role in generation of very large earthquakes. Focal mechanism solutions of the Muzaffarabad earthquake and its aftershocks are found to have steep dip angles comparable to the Indian intra-plate shield earthquakes rather than the typical Himalayan earthquakes that are characterized by shallow angle northward dips. A low p-value of 0.9 is obtained for this earthquake from the decay pattern of 110 aftershocks, which is comparable to that of the 1993 Latur earthquake in the Indian shield — the deadliest Stable Continental Region (SCR) earthquake till date. Inversion of focal mechanisms of the Harvard CMT catalogue indicates distinct stress patterns in the Muzaffarabad region, seemingly governed by an overturned Himalayan thrust belt configuration that envelops this region, adjoined by the Pamir and Hindukush regions. Recent developments in application of seismological tools like the receiver function technique have enabled accurate mapping of the dipping trends of the Moho and Lithosphere–Asthenosphere Boundary (LAB) of Indian lithosphere beneath southern Tibet. These have significantly improved our understanding of the collision process, the mechanism of Himalayan orogeny and uplift of the Tibetan plateau, besides providing vital constraints on the seismic hazard threat posed by the Himalaya. New ideas have also emerged through GPS, macroseismic investigations, paleoseismology and numerical modeling approaches. While many researchers suggest that the Himalayan front is already overdue for several 8.0 magnitude earthquakes, some opine that most of the front may not really be capable of sustaining the stress accumulation required for generation of great earthquakes. We propose that the occurrence of great earthquakes like those of 1897 in Shillong and 1950 in Assam have a strong correlation with their proximity to multiple plate junctions conducive for enormous stress build up, like the eastern Himalayan syntaxis comprising the junction of the India, Eurasia plates, and the Burma, Sunda micro-plates.