The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24

We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximum amplitude.     

Wavelet Analysis of the Schwabe Cycle Properties in Solar Activity

Properties of the Schwabe cycles in solar activity are investigated by using wavelet transform. We study the main range of the Schwabe cycles of the solar activity recorded by relative sunspot numbers, and find that the main range of the Schwabe cycles is the periodic span from 8-year to 14-year. We make the comparison of 11-year‘s phase between relative sunspot numbers and sunspot group numbers. The results show that there is some difference between two phases for the interval from 1710 to 1810, while the two phases are almost the same for the interval from 1810 to 1990.     

A Running Average Method for Predicting the Size and Length of a Solar Cycle

The running correlation coefficient between the solar cycle amplitudes and the max-max cycle lengths at a given cycle lag is found to vary roughly in a cyclical wave with the cycle number, based on the smoothed monthly mean Group sunspot numbers available since 1610. A running average method is proposed to predict the size and length of a solar cycle by the use of the varying trend of the coefficients. It is found that, when a condition (that the correlation becomes stronger) is satisfied, the mean prediction error (16.1) is much smaller than when the condition is not satisfied (38.7). This result can be explained by the fact that the prediction must fall on the regression line and increase the strength of the correlation. The method itself can also indicate whether the prediction is reasonable or not. To obtain a reasonable prediction, it is more important to search.for a running correlation coefficient whose varying trend satisfies the proposed condition, and the result does not depend so much on the size of the correlation coefficient. As an application, the peak sunspot number of cycle 24 is estimated as 140.4±15.7, and the peak as May 2012± 11 months.     

The Relation between the Amplitude and the Period of Solar Cycles

The maximum amplitudes of solar activity cycles are found to be well anti-correlated (r = -0.72) with the newly defined solar cycle lengths three cycles before (at lag -3) in 13-month running mean sunspot numbers during the past 190 years. This result could be used for predicting the maximum sunspot numbers. The amplitudes of Cycles 24 and 25 are estimated to be 149.5±27.6 and 144.3±27.6, respectively.     

Verification of Short-Term Predictions of Solar Soft X-ray Bursts for the Maximum Phase （2000-2001） of Solar Cycle 23

We present a verification of the short-term predictions of solar Xray bursts for the maximum phase (2000-2001) of Solar Cycle 23, issued by two prediction centers. The results are that the rate of correct predictions is about equal for RWC-China and WWA; the rate of too high predictions is greater for RWC-China than for WWA, while the rate of too low predictions is smaller for RWC-China than for WWA.     

Prediction of the Beginning of Solar Activity Cycle 24 by the Similar Cycle Method

In this paper, the method of similar cycles is applied to predict the start time of the 24th cycle of solar activity and the sunspot numbers in the later part of the descending phase of cycle 23. According to the characteristic parameters and the morphological characters of the descending phase of cycle 23 and of cycles 9, 10, 11, 15, 17 and 20 (cycles selected as the similar cycles for the descending phase of cycle 23), the start time of cycle 24 is predicted to be in 2007 yr 5 ± 1m, the smoothed monthly mean spot number, 7.1 ± 2.6 and the length of the 23rd cycle, 11.1 yr. These results agree rather well with those stated in Refs.[11] & [12] as well as those of MSFC. Our work shows that the method of similar cycles can well be applied to the long-term prediction of solar activity.     

A New Method to Determine Epochs of Solar Cycle Extrema

A weighted average method is proposed to determine the epochs of solar cycle extrema and hence the solar cycle lengths. Comparing to the previous methods, this method has the advantage that the extremum epochs are easily and uniquely determined.     

Three Super Active Regions in the Descending Phase of Solar Cycle 23

We analyze the magnetic configurations of three super active regions, NOAA 10484, 10486 and 10488, observed by the Huairou Multi-Channel Solar Telescope (MCST) from 2003 October 18 to November 4. Many energetic phenomena, such as flares (including a X-28 flare) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), occurred during this period. We think that strong shear and fast emergence of magnetic flux are the main causes of these events. The question is also of great interest why these dramatic eruptions occurred so close together in the descending phase of the solar cycle.     

第23太阳活动周发展趋势预测

利用压强改正莫斯科中子监测值,对第２３太阳活动周的未来发展趋势作了预测,推测第 ２３周太阳活动和第 ２２周相当,约在 ２００１年达到 １５１± １６的极大月平均黑子相对数．     

Can Asymmetry of Solar Activity be Extended into Extended Cycle？

With the use of the Royal Greenwich Observatory data set of sunspot groups,an attempt is made to examine the north-south asymmetry of solar activity in the “extended” solar cycles. It is inferred that the asymmetry established for individual solar cycles does not extend to the “extended” cycles.     

Solar Magnetism and the Activity Telescope at HSOS

A new solar telescope system is described, which has been operating at Huairou Solar Observing Station (HSOS), National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), since the end of 2005. This instrument, the Solar Magnetism and Activity Telescope (SMAT), comprises two telescopes which respectively make measurements of full solar disk vector magnetic field and Hα observation. The core of the full solar disk video vector magnetograph is a birefringent filter with 0.1  bandpass, installed in the tele-centric optical system of the telescope. We present some preliminary observational results of the full solar disk vector magnetograms and Hα filtergrams obtained with this telescope system.     

Verification of a Similar Cycle Prediction for the Ascending and Peak Phases of Solar Cycle 23

Reviews of long-term predictions of solar cycles have shown that a precise prediction with a lead time of 2 years or more of a solar cycle remains an unsolved problem. We used a simple method, the method of similar cycles, to make long-term predictions of not only the maximum amplitude but also the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number for every month of Solar Cycle 23. We verify and compare our prediction with the latest available observational results.     

Formation of Solar Delta Active Regions： Twist and Writhe of Magnetic Ropes

We analyze the process of formation of delta configuration in some well-known super active regions based on photospheric vector magnetogram observations. It is found that the magnetic field in the initial developing stage of some delta active regions shows a potential-like configuration in the solar atmosphere, the magnetic shear develops mainly near the magnetic neutral line with magnetic islands of opposite polarities, and the large-scale photospheric twisted field forming gradually later. Some results are obtained: (1) The analysis of magnetic writhe of whole active regions cannot be limited in the strong field of sunspots, because the contribution of the fraction of decayed magnetic field is non-negligible. (2) The magnetic model of kink magnetic ropes, supposed to be generated in the subatmosphere, is not consistent with the evolution of large-scale twisted photospheric transverse magnetic field and not entirely consistent with the relationship with magnetic shear in some delta active regions. (3) T     

Determination of the Topology Skeleton of Magnetic Fields in a Solar Active Region

Magnetic topology has been a key to the understanding of magnetic energy re-lease mechanism. Based on observed vector magnetograms, we have determined the three-dimensional (3D) topology skeleton of the magnetic fields in the active region NOAA 10720.The skeleton consists of six 3D magnetic nulls and a network of corresponding spines, fans,and null-null lines. For the first time, we have identified a spiral magnetic null in Sun's corona.The magnetic lines of force twisted around the spine of the null, forming a 'magnetic wreath'with excess of free magnetic energy and resembling observed brightening structures at extra-ultraviolet (EUV) wavebands. We found clear evidence of topology eruptions which are re-ferred to as catastrophic changes of topology skeleton associated with a coronal mass ejection(CME) and an explosive X-ray flare. These results shed new lights on the structural complex-ity and its role in explosive magnetic activity. The concept of flux rope has been widely used in modelling explosive magnetic activity, although their observational identity is rather ob-scure or, at least, lacking of necessary details up to date. We suggest that the magnetic wreath associated with the 3D spiral null is likely an important class of the physical entity of flux ropes.     

Size-Flux Relation in Solar Active Regions

We present a study of the relationship between integral area and corresponding total magnetic flux for solar active regions. It is shown that some of these relationships are satisfied to simple power laws. Fractal examination showed that some of these power laws can not be justified inside the simple models of stationary magnetic flux tube aggregation. All magnetic fluxes and corresponding areas were calculated using the data measured with the Solar Magnetic Field Telescope of the Huairou Solar Observing Station in Beijing.     

Distribution of Helical Properties of Solar Magnetic Fields

We summarize studies of helical properties of solar magnetic fields such as current helicity and twist of magnetic fields in solar active regions (ARs), that are observational tracers of the alpha-effect in the solar convective zone (SCZ). Information on their spatial distribution is obtained by analysis of systematic mag-netographic observations of active regions taken at Huairou Solar Observing Station of National Astronomical Observatories of Chinese Academy of Sciences. The main property is that the tracers of the alpha-effect are antisymmetric about the solar equator. Identifying longitudinal migration of active regions with their individual rotation rates and taking into account the internal differential rotation law within the SCZ known from helioseismology, we deduce the distribution of the effect over depth. We have found evidence that the alpha-effect changes its value and sign near the bottom of the SCZ, and this is in accord with the theoretical studies and numerical simulations. We discuss     

Projection Effects on Physical Parameters Obtained from Solar Vector Magnetograms

1 INTRODUCTION Magnetic field plays an important role in solar activity. The stressing and subsequent partialrelaxation of magnetic fields in the active regions are generally accepted to be the energy sourceof solar flares. To quantitatively study the extent of stressed magnetic field as distinct from itspotential field, Hagyard et al. (1984) defined a magnetic shear angle膖he azimuth differencebetween the observed transverse magnetic field vector and the computed potential field vectorth…     

日球参数的太阳周变化

本文统计分析了1965至1978年期间,在地球轨道附近的行星际空间测量到的日球参数的太阳周变化,包括各种基本参数及由它们组成的各种密度和流密度、声速、马赫数及其他无量纲参数。文中论证了存在两类性质不同的太阳周变化,即冕洞周和黑子周变化,前者随日冕结构寿命增长在1974年达到极大值,找到了人们寻找多年的遵循太阳黑子周变化的参量,并且讨论了冕洞极大和黑子极大年太阳风平均特性的差别。     

A comparison between magnetic shear and flare shear in a well-observed M-class flare

We give an extensive multi-wavelength analysis of an eruptive M1.0/1N class solar flare, which occurred in the active region NOAA 10044 on 2002 July 26. Our empha-sis is on the relationship between magnetic shear and flare shear. Flare shear is defined as the angle formed between the line connecting the centroids of the two ribbons of the flare and the line perpendicular to the magnetic neutral line. The magnetic shear is computed from vector magnetograms observed at Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO), while the flare shear is computed from Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE) 1700A images. By a detailed comparison, we find that: 1) The magnetic shear and the flare shear of this event are basically consistent, as judged from the directions of the transverse mag-netic field and the line connecting the two ribbons' centroids. 2) During the period of the enhancement of magnetic shear, flare shear had a fast increase followed by a fluctuated decrease. 3) When the magnetic shear stopped its enhancement, the fluctuated decreasing behavior of the flare shear became very smooth. 4) Hard X-ray (HXR) spikes are well correlated with the unshearing peaks on the time profile of the rate of change of the flare shear. We give a discussion of the above phenomena.     

Angular velocity during the cycle deduced using the sunspot group age selection methodology

We have used the “age selection methodology” (ASM) (Zappalá and Zuccarello 1991) to study the variability of the sunspot groups angular velocity during the activity cycle. The ASM allows us to separate the contribution of Young Sunspot Groups (YSG) from that of Recurrent ones (RSG) in the Ω(θ) determination and therefore to evaluate whether the increase in angular velocity during minima (reported in literature using all sunspot groups as tracers), is due to a greater statistical weight of YSG on RSG or whether it reflects a global characteristic of the Sun. The results obtained from the analysis of sunspot groups data collected during the period 1874‐1981 (Greenwich Photoheliographic Results) indicate that during minima, besides the fact that the percentage of RSG drops to ≤ 5%, both YSG and RSG show the same increase in angular velocity, i.e. 0.16 degrees/day. Comparing our results with those reported in literature and taking into account the internal angular velocity as deduced by p‐mode oscillations, it is possible to conclude that the observed higher angular velocity of the Sun during minima concerns several layers of the Sun.