共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Elsadek Wael M. Ibrahim Mona G. Mahmod Wael Elham Kanae Shinjiro 《Natural Hazards》2019,95(3):739-767
Natural Hazards - Many parts of Upper Egypt as Sinai and Red Sea areas were hit by severe flash floods since 1976. Wadi Qena is considered one of the most watersheds that suffers from floods in Red... 相似文献
2.
In this paper, the lumped quasi-distributed hydrological model HEC HMS is used to simulate the rainfall–runoff process of the Mekerra watershed, located in the northwest of Algeria. The model parameters’ uncertainty and the predictive intervals were evaluated with the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach. According to the results, good simulations were obtained with different values of variables for many sets of parameters generated randomly by the Monte Carlo procedure, which is known as Equifinality. After the analysis, only the hydraulic conductivity at saturation parameter appears well defined, taking values within a limited range. In addition, results indicated that combinations of likelihood measures associated with multiple and different periods of observations reduce a posterior uncertainty of estimated parameters and predictive intervals in some degree. Overall, the GLUE analysis showed that there is a significant uncertainty associated with hydrological modelling of watershed Mekerra, to a great extent due to multiple sources of errors. 相似文献
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Land subsidence susceptibility mapping at Kinta Valley (Malaysia) using the evidential belief function model in GIS 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Biswajeet Pradhan Mohammed Hasan Abokharima Mustafa Neamah Jebur Mahyat Shafapour Tehrany 《Natural Hazards》2014,73(2):1019-1042
Land subsidence is one of the frequent geological hazards worldwide. Urban areas and agricultural industries are the entities most affected by the consequences of land subsidence. The main objective of this study was to estimate the land subsidence (sinkhole) hazards at the Kinta Valley of Perak, Malaysia, using geographic information system and remote sensing techniques. To start, land subsidence locations were observed by surveying measurements using GPS and using the tabular data, which were produced as coordinates of each sinkhole incident. Various land subsidence conditioning factors were used such as altitude, slope, aspect, lithology, distance from the fault, distance from the river, normalized difference vegetation index, soil type, stream power index, topographic wetness index, and land use/cover. In this article, a data-driven technique of an evidential belief function (EBF), which is in the category of multivariate statistical analysis, was used to map the land subsidence-prone areas. The frequency ratio (FR) was performed as an efficient bivariate statistical analysis method in order compare it with the acquired results from the EBF analysis. The probability maps were acquired and the results of the analysis validated by the area under the (ROC) curve using the testing land subsidence locations. The results indicated that the FR model could produce a 71.16 % prediction rate, while the EBF showed better prediction accuracy with a rate of 73.63 %. Furthermore, the success rate was measured and accuracies of 75.30 and 79.45 % achieved for FR and EBF, respectively. These results can produce an understanding of the nature of land subsidence as well as promulgate public awareness of such geo-hazards to decrease human and economic losses. 相似文献
4.
Landslide susceptibility mapping using the weight of evidence method in the Tinau watershed, Nepal 总被引:8,自引:1,他引:8
Mountainous areas in Nepal are prone to landslides, resulting in an enormous loss of life and property every year. As a first step towards mitigating or controlling such problems, it is necessary to prepare landslide susceptibility maps. Various methodologies have been proposed for landslide susceptibility mapping. This study applies the weight of evidence method to the Tinau watershed in west Nepal. A landslide susceptibility map is prepared on the basis of field observations and available data of geology, land use, topography and hydrology. Predicted susceptibility levels are found to be in good agreement with the locations of past landslides. The results show that about 30?% of the area is highly susceptible to landsliding. The present results provide useful information to the authorities concerning the landslide susceptibility zones and possible improvements for disaster management activities and sustainable development. 相似文献
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Understanding the hydrological response of small and large river basins is crucial for regional climate and hydrology studies. Also, rainfall space–time variability (Known in semi arid climate) has a major influence on hydrological dynamics. As consequent, we developed a software application (with MATLAB) in order to take into account the rainfall space-time variability, and that open a major prospects of studying hydrometeorological effects such scale effect and moving storms. In this context, in order to asses scale and dynamic rainy events effect in hydrologic modelling, this study focuses on instantaneous rainy data in central Tunisia (Merguellil and Skhira watershed): a rainfall runoff modelling was done to investigate basins responses and a developed geomorphology-based transfer function, was applied. A systematic hydro-meteorological analysis have been implemented to understand different types of variability and rainy fields dynamic, the relevance of rainfall network and scale effects. As result, two different behaviours of studied basins are detected. Responses of studied areas are much related to event dynamic (East/West and West/East) and hydrographs change according to event direction. 相似文献
7.
Michael M. McGlue Aguinaldo Silva Hiran Zani Fabrício A. Corradini Mauro Parolin Erin J. Abel Andrew S. Cohen Mario L. Assine Geoffrey S. Ellis Mark A. Trees Sidney Kuerten Frederico dos Santos Gradella Giliane Gessica Rasbold 《Quaternary Research》2012,78(2):285-294
The Pantanal is the world's largest tropical wetland and a biodiversity hotspot, yet its response to Quaternary environmental change is unclear. To address this problem, sediment cores from shallow lakes connected to the Upper Paraguay River (PR) were analyzed and radiocarbon dated to track changes in sedimentary environments. Stratal relations, detrital particle size, multiple biogeochemical indicators, and sponge spicules suggest fluctuating lake-level lowstand conditions between ~ 11,000 and 5300 cal yr BP, punctuated by sporadic and in some cases erosive flood flows. A hiatus has been recorded from ~ 5300 to 2600 cal yr BP, spurred by confinement of the PR within its channel during an episode of profound regional drought. Sustained PR flooding caused a transgression after ~ 2600 cal yr BP, with lake-level highstand conditions appearing during the Little Ice Age. Holocene PR flood pulse dynamics are best explained by variability in effective precipitation, likely driven by insolation and tropical sea-surface temperature gradients. Our results provide novel support for hypotheses on: (1) stratigraphic discontinuity of floodplain sedimentary archives; (2) late Holocene methane flux from Southern Hemisphere wetlands; and (3) pre-colonial indigenous ceramics traditions in western Brazil. 相似文献
8.
Gully erosion is an important environmental issue with severe impacts. This study aimed to characterize gully erosion susceptibility and assess the capability of information value (InfVal) and frequency ratio (FR) models for its spatial prediction in Ourika watershed of the High Atlas region of Morocco. These two bivariate statistical methods have been used for gully erosion susceptibility mapping by comparing each data layer of causative factor to the existing gully distribution. Weights to the gully causative factors are assigned based on gully density. Gullies have been mapped through field surveys and Google earth high-resolution images. Lithofacies, land use, slope gradient, length-slope, aspect, stream power index, topographical wetness index and plan curvature were considered predisposing factors to gullying. The digitized gullies were randomly split into two parts. Sixty-five percent (65%) of the mapped gullies were randomly selected as training set to build gully susceptibility models, while the remaining 35% cases were used as validation set for the models’ validation. The results showed that barren and sparse vegetation lands and slope gradient above 50% were very susceptible to gully erosion. The ROC curve was used for testing the accuracy of the mentioned models. The analysis confirms that the FR model (AUC 80.61%) shows a better accuracy than InfVal model (AUC 52.07%). The performance of the gully erosion susceptibility map constructed by FR model is greater than that of the map produced by InfVal model. The findings proved that GIS-based bivariate statistical methods such as frequency ratio model could be successfully applied in gully susceptibility mapping in Morocco mountainous regions and in other similar environments. The produced susceptibility map represents a useful tool for sustainable planning, conservation and protection of land from gully processes. 相似文献
9.
Ellen A. Cowan Erin E. Epperson Keith C. Seramur Stefanie A. Brachfeld Steven J. Hageman 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(19):657
A study of near surface sediments from the Dan River (southeastern USA) was conducted to assess the use of magnetic properties as proxies of coal ash after a recent spill. The watershed geology is diverse and potentially contributes magnetic minerals to riverbed sediment from diabase dikes in the Dan River Triassic Basin and from granitic gneiss outside the basin. Coal ash is heterogeneous, including aluminosilicate spheres, amorphous particles and carbonaceous rods and lacy particles. The magnetic fraction of ash from the failed storage pond is up to 17 wt% and is mostly composed of black spheres with maghemite and magnetite. Ash was detected in riverbed sediment from quiet water settings such as inside of meander bends, the confluence of tributary streams and near islands between the spill site and 20 miles downstream in the Schoolfield Reservoir, Danville, VA. The strong magnetic signal is detected above background in riverbed samples and is strongly positively correlated with total ash; elevated low field magnetic susceptibility (χ LF) is evident in samples with ≥ 12% ash content. Anhysteretic remanent magnetization and hysteresis parameters delineate native sediment, ash-bearing sediment, and diabase dikes. Between 20 and 70 miles downstream of the spill site, ash concentrations were either buried or too low due to dilution with native sediment to be detected with χ LF in riverbed samples. 相似文献
10.
Adnan Mohammed Sarfaraz Gani Dewan Ashraf Zannat Khatun E. Abdullah Abu Yousuf Md 《Natural Hazards》2019,99(1):425-448
Natural Hazards - The occurrence of heavy rainfall in the south-eastern hilly region of Bangladesh makes this area highly susceptible to recurrent flash flooding. As the region is the commercial... 相似文献
11.
Use of fuzzy relations to produce landslide susceptibility map of a landslide prone area (West Black Sea Region, Turkey) 总被引:26,自引:0,他引:26
Preparation of landslide susceptibility maps is important for engineering geologists and geomorphologists. However, due to complex nature of landslides, producing a reliable susceptibility map is not easy. For this reason, many procedures have been used to produce such maps. In this study, a new attempt is tried to produce landslide susceptibility map of a part of West Black Sea Region of Turkey. To obtain the fuzzy relations for producing the susceptibility map, a landslide inventory database is compiled by both field surveys and airphoto studies. A total of 266 landslides are identified in the study area, and dominant mode of failure is rotational slide while the other mode of failures are soil flow and shallow translational slide. The landslide inventory and the parameter maps are analyzed together using a computer program (FULLSA) developed in this study. The computer program utilizes the fuzzy relations and produces the landslide susceptibility map automatically. According to this map, 9.6% of the study area is classified as very high susceptibility, 10.3% as high susceptibility, 8.9% as moderate susceptibility, 27.5% as low susceptibility and 43.8% as very low susceptibility or nonsusceptible areas. The prediction performance of the susceptibility map is checked by considering actual landslides in the study area. For this purpose, strength of the relation (rij) and the root mean square error (RMSE) values are calculated as 0.867 and 0.284, respectively. These values show that the produced landslide susceptibility map in the present study has a sufficient reliability. It is believed that the approach employed in this study mainly prevents the subjectivity sourced from the parameter selection and provides a support to improve the landslide susceptibility mapping studies. 相似文献
12.
Application of fuzzy logic and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to landslide susceptibility mapping at Haraz watershed, Iran 总被引:33,自引:8,他引:33
The main goal of this study is to produce landslide susceptibility maps of a landslide-prone area (Haraz) in Iran by using both fuzzy logic and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) models. At first, landslide locations were identified by aerial photographs and field surveys, and a total of 78 landslides were mapped from various sources. Then, the landslide inventory was randomly split into a training dataset 70?% (55 landslides) for training the models and the remaining 30?% (23 landslides) was used for validation purpose. Twelve data layers, as the landslide conditioning factors, are exploited to detect the most susceptible areas. These factors are slope degree, aspect, plan curvature, altitude, lithology, land use, distance from rivers, distance from roads, distance from faults, stream power index, slope length, and topographic wetness index. Subsequently, landslide susceptibility maps were produced using fuzzy logic and AHP models. For verification, receiver operating characteristics curve and area under the curve approaches were used. The verification results showed that the fuzzy logic model (89.7?%) performed better than AHP (81.1?%) model for the study area. The produced susceptibility maps can be used for general land use planning and hazard mitigation purpose. 相似文献
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Natural Hazards - Soil erosion is a natural process causing grave land degradation problems. In Tunisia, soil erosion represents a serious environmental problem. Both man-made and natural... 相似文献
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The production of flood hazard assessment maps is an important component of flood risk assessment. This study analyses flood hazard using flood mark data. The chosen case study is the 2013 flood event in Quang Nam, Vietnam. The impacts of this event included 17 deaths, 230 injuries, 91,739 flooded properties, 11,530 ha of submerged and damaged agricultural land, 85,080 animals killed and widespread damage to roads, canals, dykes and embankments. The flood mark data include flood depth and flood duration. Analytic hierarchy process method is used to assess the criteria and sub-criteria of the flood hazard. The weights of criteria and sub-criteria are generated based on the judgements of decision-makers using this method. This assessment is combined into a single map using weighted linear combination, integrated with GIS to produce a flood hazard map. Previous research has usually not considered flood duration in flood hazard assessment maps. This factor has a rather strong influence on the livelihood of local communities in Quang Nam, with most agricultural land within the floodplain. A more comprehensive flood hazard assessment mapping process, with the additional consideration of flood duration, can make a significant contribution to flood risk management activities in Vietnam. 相似文献
15.
Soil erosion prediction at the basin scale using the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) in a catchment of Sicily (southern Italy) 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Soil erosion by water is a serious problem in southern Italy, particularly in Sicily which is one of the Italian administrative regions prone to desertification. Soil erosion not only affects soil quality, in terms of agricultural productivity, but also reduces the availability of water in reservoirs. This study was conducted in the Comunelli catchment in south-central Sicily, to predict potential annual soil loss using the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) and to test the reliability of this methodology to predict reservoirs siltation. The RUSLE factors were calculated for the catchment using survey data and rain gauge measurement data. The R-factor was calculated from daily, monthly and annual precipitation data. The K-factor was calculated from soil samples collected in May and November 2004. The LS topographic factor was calculated from a 20 m digital elevation model. The C- and P-factors, in absence of detailed data, were set to 1. The results were compared with those obtained from another soil loss estimation method based on 137Cs and with the soil loss estimated from the sediment volume stored in the Comunelli reservoir between 1968 and 2004. 相似文献
16.
Roya Narimani Mahdi Erfanian Habib Nazarnejad Ahmad Mahmodzadeh 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(9):353
This study was undertaken to evaluate land use change impact and management scenarios on annual average surface runoff (SR) and sediment yield (SY) using the GeoWEPP tool in the Lighvanchai watershed (located in northwestern Iran). Following a sensitivity analysis, the WEPP model was calibrated (2005–2007) and validated (2008–2010) against monthly observed SY and SR. The coefficient of determination (R 2), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), mean bias error (MBE), and root-mean-square error (RMSE) were applied to quantitatively evaluate the WEPP model. The results indicate a satisfactory model performance with R 2 > 0.80 and NSE > 0.60. Therefore, the model for current land use (scenario 1) was run for a 30-year time period (1982–2011). The annual average of SR and sediment load were predicted as 93,584 m3/year and 4340 ton/year, respectively. To reduce the annual average surface runoff and sediment yield at the watershed scale, the second scenario (alfalfa cultivation with suitable tillage) and the third scenario (grassland development) as two management scenarios of land use changes were defined by identifying the critical hillslopes. The rate of SR and sediment load in the second scenario were 42,096 m3/year and 429 ton/year, respectively. For the third scenario, the model predictions were 30,239 m3/year and 226 ton/year, respectively. Compared to the first scenario, the reduction rates in annual average of sediment load were about 90 and 94%, respectively. Moreover, for the second and third management scenarios, the reduction rates in annual average of SR were about 55 and 67%, respectively. 相似文献
17.
Natural Hazards - Floods are one of the frequent natural hazards occurring in Kerala because of the remarkably high annual rate of rainfall. The objective of this study is to prepare the flood... 相似文献
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Infiltration sustainable drainage systems (SuDS) such as soakaways and permeable pavements use the capacity of the subsurface to attenuate surface water. The implementation of SuDS is required by the Floods and Water Management Act 2010, and the associated National Standards for Sustainable Drainage prioritise infiltration over other surface water drainage methods. This paper describes the development of a nationally derived Infiltration SuDS Map that enables preliminary assessment of the suitability of the ground for infiltration SuDS. It shows that national geological and hydrogeological datasets, developed by the British Geological Survey, can be used to support early planning decisions. The map comprises 24 GIS layers that both summarise and provide subsurface information on the suitability of the ground with respect to significant flooding and stability constraints, the drainage potential and considerations relating to ground stability and groundwater protection. The map was validated using an independent database of SuDS installations and was found to accurately describe the ground conditions in all 27 cases. The Infiltration SuDS Map suggests that 34.5 % of the United Kingdom is suitable or probably suitable for free-draining SuDS, but that the potential for infiltration SuDS at the city-scale varies depending on the ground conditions. For example, 60 % of Bradford was deemed as suitable, or probably suitable for Infiltration SuDS, whereas only 19 % of the area of Leicester was similarly classified. 相似文献
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GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping for a problematic segment of the natural gas pipeline,Hendek (Turkey) 总被引:26,自引:0,他引:26
A segment of natural gas pipeline was damaged due to landsliding near Hendek. Re-routing of the pipeline is planned, but it requires the preparation of a landslide susceptibility map. In this study, the statistical index (Wi) and weighting factor (Wf) methods have been used with GIS to prepare a landslide susceptibility map of the problematic segment of the pipeline. For this purpose, thematic layers including landslide inventory, lithology, slope, aspect, elevation, land use/land cover, distance to stream, and drainage density were used. In the study area, landslides occur in the unconsolidated to semi-consolidated clayey unit and regolith. The Wf method gives better results than the Wi method. Lithology is found to be the most important aspect in the study area. Based on the findings obtained in this study, the unconsolidated to semi-consolidated clayey unit and alluvium should be avoided during re-routing. Agricultural activities should not be allowed in the close vicinity of the pipeline. 相似文献