The variability of the Atlantic meridional circulation since 1980, as hindcast by a data-driven nonlinear systems model

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), an important component of the climate system, has only been directly measured since the RAPID array’s installation across the Atlantic at 26°N in 2004. This has shown that the AMOC strength is highly variable on monthly timescales; however, after an abrupt, short-lived, halving of the strength of the AMOC early in 2010, its mean has remained?~?15% below its pre-2010 level. To attempt to understand the reasons for this variability, we use a control systems identification approach to model the AMOC, with the RAPID data of 2004–2017 providing a trial and test data set. After testing to find the environmental variables, and systems model, that allow us to best match the RAPID observations, we reconstruct AMOC variation back to 1980. Our reconstruction suggests that there is inter-decadal variability in the strength of the AMOC, with periods of both weaker flow than recently, and flow strengths similar to the late 2000s, since 1980. Recent signs of weakening may therefore not reflect the beginning of a sustained decline. It is also shown that there may be predictive power for AMOC variability of around 6 months, as ocean density contrasts between the source and sink regions for the North Atlantic Drift, with lags up to 6 months, are found to be important components of the systems model.     

Late slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the Last Glacial Inception: New constraints from sedimentary (231Pa/230Th)

Our study gives new constraints on the response of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) export to various forcings during the Last Glacial Inception. The decay corrected excess sedimentary (²³¹Pa/²³⁰Th) activity ratio (hereafter referred to as (Pa/Th)) has been measured over that period in two deep cores from the Western (SU90-11, 44°04′N, 40°01′W, 3645 m) and Eastern (MD01-2446, 39°03′N, 12°37′W, 3547 m) basins of the North Atlantic. Both records display significant changes despite the relatively short half-life of ²³¹Pa (～ 32 kyr) compared to the period we investigate. The (Pa/Th) variability does not correlate to changes in local opal flux normalized to ²³⁰Th. Moreover, the (Pa/Th) profiles display a high degree of coherency with indirect proxies of AMOC activity such as the benthic foraminifera δ¹³C and the mid-latitude summer Sea Surface Temperature in nearby reference cores. These additional pieces of evidence support our interpretation of the (Pa/Th) as reflecting AMOC export. The (Pa/Th) repeatedly underwent rapid changes during the Last Glacial Inception associated with the extension of ice rafted detritus in the North Atlantic, highlighting the control of ice-sheet dynamics through freshwater forcing on AMOC export. AMOC export remains large during periods of ice-sheet growth and its decreases lag the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation forcing. AMOC modulation appears driven by ice-sheet dynamics, itself driven by the seasonal insolation gradient between low and high Northern Hemisphere latitudes and the associated intensity of the meridional oceanic and atmospheric circulation.     

Numerical studies of transient planetary circulations in a wind-driven ocean

Summary The time-dependent primitive equations for a shallow homogeneous ocean with a free surface are solved for a bounded basin on the sphere, driven by a steady zonal wind stress and subject to lateral viscous dissipation. These are the vertically integrated equations for a free-surface model, and are integrated to 60 days from an initial state of rest by an explicit centered-difference method with zero-slip lateral boundary conditions. In a series of comparative numerical solutions it is shown that at least a 2-deg resolution is needed to resolve the western boundary currents adequately and to avoid undue distortion of the transient (Rossby waves. The -plane formulation is shown to be an adequate approximation for the mean circulation in the lower and middle latitudes, but noticeably intensifies the transports poleward of about 50 deg and both slows and distorts the transients in the central basin. The influence of the (southern) zonal boundary on the transport solutions is confined to the southernmost gyre, except in the region of the western boundary currents where its influence spreads to the northern edge of the basin by 30 days. The total boundary current transport is shown to be approximately proportional to the zonal width of the basin and independent of the basin's (uniform) depth, while the elevation of the free water surface is inversely proportional to the basin depth, in accordance with linear theory. The introduction of bottom friction has a marked damping effect on the transient Rossby waves, and also reduces the maximum boundary-current transport. The solutions throughout are approximately geostrophic and are only slightly nonlinear.The root-mean-square (rms) transport variability during the period 30 to 60 days is concentrated in the southwest portion of the basin through the reflection of the transient Rossby waves from the western shore and has a maximum corresponding to an rms current variability of about 3 cm sec^–1. The transport variabilities are about 10 percent of the mean zonal transport and more than 100 percent of the mean meridional transport over a considerable region of the western basin (outside the western boundary current regime). Some 99 percent of the total kinetic energy is associated with the zonal mean and standing zonal waves, which are also responsible for the bulk of the meridional transport of zonal angular momentum. Although the transient Rossby waves systematically produce a momentum flux convergence at the latitude of the maximum eastward current, much in the manner of their atmospheric counterparts, this is only a relatively small contribution to the zonal oceanic momentum balance; the bulk of the mean zonal stress is here balanced by a nearly stationary net pressure torque exerted against the meridional boundaries by the wind-raised water. In an ocean without such boundaries the role of the transient circulations may be somewhat more important.     

Water exchange between the subpolar and subtropical North Pacific in an OGCM

The water exchange between the subpolar and subtropical gyres of the North Pacific is demonstrated by the simulation of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) using an ocean general circulation model. The simulated CFC concentration in the North Pacific is in good agreement with observations. The water exchange is clearly illustrated by the tongues of CFC concentration. The subpolar waters with high CFC are transported southward into the eastern subtropical gyre, whereas the subtropical waters with low CFC are transported northward into the western subpolar gyre. The simulated exchange transport along 42°N in the layer of σθ< 26.8 indicates that the northward mass transport is about 15 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3·s-1) west of 165°E, and about 5 Sv between 175°W and 150°W. The southward mass transport is about 5 Sv between 165°E and 175°W, and about 2 Sv east of 150°W.     

Mixed-layer water oscillations in tropical Pacific for ENSO cycle

The main modes of interannal variabilities of thermocline and sea surface wind stress in the tropical Pacific and their interactions are investigated,which show the following results.(1) The thermocline anomalies in the tropical Pacific have a zonal dipole pattern with 160°W as its axis and a meridional seesaw pattern with 6-8°N as its transverse axis.The meridional oscillation has a phase lag of about 90° to the zonal oscillation,both oscillations get together to form the El Ni?o/La Ni?a cycle,which be-haves as a mixed layer water oscillates anticlockwise within the tropical Pacific basin between equator and 12°N.(2) There are two main patterns of wind stress anomalies in the tropical Pacific,of which the first component caused by trade wind anomaly is characterized by the zonal wind stress anomalies and its corresponding divergences field in the equatorial Pacific,and the abnormal cross-equatorial flow wind stress and its corresponding divergence field,which has a sign opposite to that of the equatorial region,in the off-equator of the tropical North Pacific,and the second component represents the wind stress anomalies and corresponding divergences caused by the ITCZ anomaly.(3) The trade winds anomaly plays a decisive role in the strength and phase transition of the ENSO cycle,which results in the sea level tilting,provides an initial potential energy to the mixed layer water oscillation,and causes the opposite thermocline displacement between the west side and east side of the equator and also between the equator and 12°N of the North Pacific basin,therefore determines the amplitude and route for ENSO cycle.The ITCZ anomaly has some effects on the phase transition.(4) The thermal anomaly of the tropical western Pacific causes the wind stress anomaly and extends eastward along the equator accompanied with the mixed layer water oscillation in the equatorial Pacific,which causes the trade winds anomaly and produces the anomalous wind stress and the corresponding divergence in favor to conduce the oscillation,which in turn intensifies the oscillation.The coupled system of ocean-atmo-sphere interactions and the inertia gravity of the mixed layer water oscillation provide together a phase-switching mechanism and interannual memory for the ENSO cycle.In conclusion,the ENSO cycle essentially is an inertial oscillation of the mixed layer water induced by both the trade winds anomaly and the coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction in the tropical Pacific basin between the equator and 12°N.When the force produced by the coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction is larger than or equal to the resistance caused by the mixed layer water oscillation,the oscillation will be stronger or maintain as it is,while when the force is less than the resistance,the oscillation will be weaker,even break.     

Long-term thermospheric neutral wind observations over the northern polar cap

We study the solar dependence of the thermospheric dynamics based on more than 20 years Fabry–Perot interferometer O 6300 Å emission observation of polar cap thermospheric wind from three stations: Thule (76.53°N, 68.73°W, MLAT 86N), Eureka (80.06°N, 86.4°W, MLAT 89N), and Resolute (74.72°N, 94.98°W, MLAT 84N) in combination with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (NCAR-TIEGCM). All three stations showed a dominant diurnal oscillation in both the meridional and zonal components, which is a manifestation of anti-sunward thermospheric wind in the polar cap. The three-station observations and the TIEGCM simulation exhibit varying degree of correlations between the anti-sunward thermospheric wind and solar F10.7 index. The diurnal oscillation is stronger at Eureka (∼150 m/s) than that at Resolute (∼100 m/s) according to both observations and TIEGCM simulation. The semidiurnal oscillation is stronger at Resolute (∼20 m/s) than that at Eureka based (∼10 m/s) on data and model results. These results are consistent with a two-cell convection pattern in the polar cap thermospheric winds. The Thule results are less consistent between the model and observations. The simulated meridional wind diurnal and semidiurnal oscillations are stronger than those observed.     

The cyclonic circulation in the Australian–Antarctic basin simulated by an eddy-resolving general circulation model

Flow structure in the Australian–Antarctic basin is investigated using an eddy-resolving general ocean circulation model and validated with iceberg and middepth float trajectories. A cyclonic circulation system between the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Antarctic Slope Current consists of a large-scale gyre in the west (80–110° E) and a series of eddies in the east (120–150° E). The western gyre has an annual mean westward transport of 22 Sv in the southern limb. Extending west through the Princess Elizabeth Trough, 5 Sv of the gyre recirculates off Prydz Bay and joins the western boundary current off the Kerguelen Plateau. Iceberg trajectories from QuickScat and ERS-1/2 support this recirculation and the overall structure of the Antarctic Slope Current against isobath in the model. Argo float trajectories also reveal a consistent structure of the deep westward slope current. This study indicates the presence of a large cyclonic circulation in this basin, which is comparable to the Weddell and Ross gyres.     

A numerical study of the circulation and monthly-to-seasonal variability in the Caribbean Sea: the role of Caribbean eddies

This study examines the circulation and associated monthly-to-seasonal variability in the Caribbean Sea using a regional ocean circulation model. The model domain covers the region between 99.0 and 54.0°W and between 8.0 and 30.3°N, with a horizontal resolution of 1/6°. The ocean circulation model is driven by 6-hourly atmospheric reanalysis data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction and boundary forcing extracted from 5-day global ocean reanalysis data produced by Smith et al. (Mercator Newsletter 36:39–49, 2010), and integrated for 7 years. A comparison of model results with observations demonstrates that the regional ocean circulation model has skill in simulating circulation and associated variability in the study region. Analysis of the model results, as well as a companion model run that uses steady annual mean forcing, illustrates the role of Caribbean eddies for driving monthly-to-seasonal circulation variability in the model. It is found that vertically integrated transport between Nicaragua and Jamaica is influenced by the interaction between the density perturbations associated with Caribbean eddies and the Nicaraguan Ridge. The impact of Caribbean eddies squeezing through the Yucatan Channel is also discussed.     

RAPID applied to the SIM‐France model

SIM‐France is a large connected atmosphere/land surface/river/groundwater modelling system that simulates the water cycle throughout metropolitan France. The work presented in this study investigates the replacement of the river routing scheme in SIM‐France by a river network model called RAPID to enhance the capacity to relate simulated flows to river gauges and to take advantage of the automated parameter estimation procedure of RAPID. RAPID was run with SIM‐France over a 10‐year period and results compared with those of the previous river routing scheme. We found that while the formulation of RAPID enhanced the functionality of SIM‐France, the flow simulations are comparable in accuracy to those previously obtained by SIM‐France. Sub‐basin optimization of RAPID parameters was found to increase model efficiency. A single criterion for quantifying the quality of river flow simulations using several river gauges globally in a river network is developed that normalizes the square error of modelled flow to allow equal treatment of all gauging stations regardless of the magnitude of flow. The use of this criterion as the cost function for parameter estimation in RAPID allows better results than by increasing the degree of spatial variability in optimization of model parameters. Likewise, increased spatial variability of RAPID parameters through accounting for topography is shown to enhance model performance. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Equatorial paleopoles and behavior of the dipole field during polarity transitions

One of the reasons for performing paleomagnetic studies is to determine whether the geomagnetic field remains dipolar during a polarity transition. Data on 23 field reversals of Recent, Tertiary and Upper Mesozoic age are examined with regard to the longitudinal and latitudinal distribution of paleomagnetic poles during a polarity change. Both frequency distributions of the transitional pole positions are not random. The results suggest that some field reversals are characterized by the rotation of the dipole axis in the meridional plane and show that two preferential meridional bands of polarity transitions exist centered on planes through 40°E–140°W and 120°E–60°W respectively. The latitudinal distribution of transitional paleopoles shows that there is a decrease in the number of observed poles with decreasing latitude. This is interpreted as the result of an acceleration in the motion of the dipole axis when it approaches the equator. Comparison of transitional velocities and paleointensity magnitudes reveals that the dipole moment is very weak only for a short part of the transitional period when the paleopole position lies within the latitudes of 10°N and 10°S. The overall conclusion is that the geomagnetic field retains its dipolar character during polarity changes.     

Coastal and oceanic SST variability along the western Iberian Peninsula

The inter-annual variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) was analyzed along the western Iberian Peninsula in the region ranging from 9.5 °W to 21.5 °W and from 37.5 °N to 42.5 °N with a spatial resolution of 1°×1° from 1900 to 2008. Both coastal and oceanic SST showed an overall increase with warming and cooling cycles similar to those observed in the North Atlantic region and in previous regional studies. In addition, the evolution of coastal and ocean water has been observed to be different. In general, ocean water is more affected by the different warming–cooling cycles than coastal water. In spite of coast and ocean are highly influenced by global changes affecting the whole North Atlantic region, near shore SST has been observed to be correlated with local wind regime, which is itself a manifestation of the Eastern Atlantic (EA) teleconnection pattern.     

A heat flow survey on anomaly M0 south of the Bermuda Rise

We have obtained a suite of 42 closely spaced, acoustically navigated, heat flow measurements on well-sedimented crust of anomaly M0 age (109 Ma) in the northwest Atlantic Ocean (25°N, 68°W; 950 km south of Bermuda). The mean and standard deviation of the values obtained are 1.13 HFU (μcal/cm² s) (47.3 mW/m²) and 0.05 HFU (2.1 mW/m²), respectively. Some of the variability is accounted for by refractive effects of the basement topography. Drill core data and our modelling suggest that the thermal conductivity contrast between sediments and basement rocks in this region is less than a factor of 1.6. The mean heat flow is close to the 1.1 HFU (46 mW/m²) predicted by both the plate and boundary layer cooling models of the oceanic lithosphere. This is the first detailed comparison with theoretical cooling models on old Atlantic Ocean crust. Since the difference in surface heat flow (0.15 HFU) predicted by the two cooling models for the oldest observed oceanic lithosphere (180 Ma) is also not much larger than the range of uncertainty in our observations, discrimination between the two models on the basis of surface heat flow data alone may prove difficult.     

Spatial and temporal structure of the Denmark Strait Overflow revealed by acoustic observations

In spite of the fundamental role the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays for global climate stability, no direct current measurement of the Denmark Strait Overflow, which is the densest part of the AMOC, has been available until recently that resolve the cross-stream structure at the sill for long periods. Since 1999, an array of bottom-mounted acoustic instruments measuring current velocity and bottom-to-surface acoustic travel times was deployed at the sill. Here, the optimization of the array configuration based on a numerical overflow model is discussed. The simulation proves that more than 80% of the dense water transport variability is captured by two to three acoustic current profilers (ADCPs). The results are compared with time series from ADCPs and Inverted Echo Sounders deployed from 1999 to 2003, confirming that the dense overflow plume can be reliably measured by bottom-mounted instruments and that the overflow is largely geostrophically balanced at the sill.     

An assessment of the mixed layer salinity budget in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Observations and modelling (1990–2009)

This paper investigates mechanisms controlling the mixed-layer salinity (MLS) in the tropical Pacific during 1990–2009. We use monthly 1°?×?1° gridded observations of salinity, horizontal current and fresh water flux, and a validated ocean general circulation model with no direct MLS relaxation in both its full resolution (0.25° and 5 days) and re-sampled as the observation time/space grid resolution. The present study shows that the mean spatial distribution of MLS results from a subtle balance between surface forcing (E???P, evaporation minus precipitation), horizontal advection (at low and high frequencies) and subsurface forcing (entrainment and mixing), all terms being of analogous importance. Large-scale seasonal MLS variability is found mainly in the Intertropical and South Pacific Convergence Zones due to changes in their meridional location (and related heavy P), in the North Equatorial Counter Currents, and partly in the subsurface forcing. Maximum interannual variability is found in the western Pacific warm pool and in both convergence zones, in relation to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. In the equatorial band, this later variability is due chiefly to the horizontal advection of low salinity waters from the western to the central-eastern basin during El Niño (and vice versa during La Niña), with contrasted evolution for the Eastern and Central Pacific ENSO types. Our findings reveal that all terms of the MLS equation, including high-frequency (<1 month) salinity advection, have to be considered to close the salinity budget, ruling out the use of MLS (or sea surface salinity) only to directly infer the mean, seasonal and/or interannual fresh water fluxes.     

Characteristics of the semidiurnal tide in the MLT over Maui (20.75°N, 156.43°W) with meteor radar observations

Semidiurnal tidal features have been examined in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere (MLT) from the long-term (2002–2007) meteor wind data over Maui (20.75°N, 156.43°W). Amplitude and phase obtained from the harmonic analysis exhibit large day to day variability. Mean amplitude obtained from the monthly mean data over the observation period is found to vary within ～8–28 m/s and 10–32 m/s for the zonal and meridional winds, respectively. The amplitude has revealed clear semiannual oscillation (SAO) pattern with maxima during solstices and altitudinal growth in both wind components. Significant resemblance in its variability with other observations carried out from the low latitude sites all over the globe is obtained. Vertical wavelength estimated from the phase gradients exposes large values (>90 km) in all seasons. Contribution of the semidiurnal tide to the total tidal variability in the MLT is found to vary over wide range throughout the year with generally higher influence during winter season over diurnal and terdiurnal components.     

The Mid-Rivera-Transform Discordance: Morphology and Tectonic Development

To better define the morphotectonic elements and tectonic development of the Mid-Rivera-Transform Discordance, multibeam bathymetric, seafloor backscatter, multichannel seismic reflection and total field marine magnetic data were collected along the entire Rivera Transform west of 107°W during the BART and FAMEX campaigns of the N.O. L??Atalante conducted in 2002. These data show that, although the transform tectonized zone of the Rivera Transform west of 107°30??W is a single continuous morphologic basin, this basin consists of two distinct morphotectonic domains: an eastern domain which morphologically is a deep rhombochasm within which organized seafloor spreading has occurred, and a western ??leaky transform?? domain. These new data, in conjunction with the results of previous studies, support the idea that the Rivera-Pacific Euler pole is migrating southward towards the eastern half of the Rivera Transform, and further indicate a recent (<0.14?Ma), and most likely ongoing, clockwise reorganization of the principle transform displacement zones of the Rivera Transform west of 108°W. We propose that the Mid-Rivera-Transform Discordance owes its origin to this eastward progressing, clockwise reorganization of the transform segments that is occurring in response to recent changes in Rivera-Pacific relative plate motion.     

Decadal variability and trends of oceanic barrier layers in tropical Pacific

Decadal variability and trends of the isothermal layer depth (ILD), mixed layer depth (MLD), and barrier layer thickness (BLT) were analyzed for the tropical Pacific during 1979–2015. The decadal variability of ILD, MLD, and BLT shows a close connection with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). At PDO positive phase, the eastward shift of precipitation and weakened trade winds result in thinner BLT in western Pacific and thicker BLT in central and eastern Pacific. The situation is reversed at PDO negative phase. The differences in BLT can be up to 9–15 m. The spatial distributions of decadal trends of ILD and MLD are complex, but a thickening of BLT in the western tropical Pacific is clearly present. The raw trends of ILD, MLD, and BLT averaged in the tropical Pacific (30° N–30° S, 120° E–75° W) from 1979 to 2015 are 1.62, 1.20, and 0.51 m per decade, respectively. PDO can explain about 25% of the increasing trends of BLT, while El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) only explains about 1.7%. Global warming and/or variability at longer time scales is responsible for the remaining increasing trends. The BLT change is related to the warming and freshening of the western Pacific warm pool in recent decades. The ocean-atmosphere interactions about trade winds, wind-driven ocean circulation, temperature, and precipitation/evaporation are discussed.     

Structure of the crust and uppermost mantle from broadband seismic array in the western Dabie Mountains,east central China

A broadband seismic array of 7 stations was set up in the western Dabie Mountains (31°20′-31°50′N, 114°30′-115°E). Teleseismic events from May 2001 to November 2001 were collected and analyzed by radial receiver function to determine the S-wave velocity structure of the crust and uppermost mantle. The crustal thickness is 32-38 km beneath the array. The crust-mantle boundary appears as a gently north-dipping velocity discontinuity, but turns to be a velocity gradient beneath a station near the Qiliping shea...     

Relationship between Mid-latitude Circulation Indices and Indian Northeast Monsoon Rainfall

—The study presents the results of the statistical relationship between seasonal northeast monsoon rainfall over Tamil Nadu state of India (TNR) and southeast India (SER) and mid-latitude circulation indices viz., zonal index (ZON) meridional index (MER) and the ratio of meridional to zonal index (M/Z) between the geographical area 35°N to 70°N at 500 hPa level over three sectors and hemisphere, based on 19 years (1971–1989) of data. The results indicate that northeast monsoon rainfall over India shows a strong antecedent relationship with the strength of ZON over all the sectors and hemisphere. The best association is observed during antecedent March over sector I (45°W–90°E) where direct and strong correlation coefficients of 0.69 and 0.64 are obtained with TNR and SER, respectively. Antecedent MAM (spring) season over sector I also shows a significant positive correlation with TNR/SER. Thus, the mid-latitude zonal circulation index may have possible use for the long-range forecasting of northeast monsoon rainfall over India.     

Three-dimensional structure of mesoscale eddies in the western tropical Pacific as revealed by a high-resolution ocean simulation

The three-dimensional structure of mesoscale eddies in the western tropical Pacific(6°S–20°N, 120°E–150°E)is investigated using a high-resolution ocean model simulation. Eddy detection and eddy tracking algorithms are applied to simulated horizontal velocity vectors, and the anticyclonic and cyclonic eddies identified are composited to obtain their three-dimensional structures. The mean lifetime of all long-lived eddies is about 52 days, and their mean diameter is 147 km. Two typical characteristics of mesoscale eddies are revealed and possible dynamic explanations are analyzed. One typical characteristic is that surface eddies are generally separated from subthermocline eddies along the bifurcation latitude(~13°N) of the North Equatorial Current in the western tropical Pacific, which may be associated with different eddy energy sources and vertical eddy energy fluxes in subtropical and tropical gyres. Surface eddies have maximum swirl velocities of 8–9 cm s~(-1) and can extend to about 1500 m depth. Subthermocline eddies occur below 200 m, with their cores at about 400–600 m depth, and their maximum swirl velocities can reach 10 cm s~(-1). The other typical characteristic is that the meridional velocity component of the eddy is much larger than the zonal component. This characteristic might be due to more zonal eddy pairs(two eddies at the same latitude),which is also supported by the zonal wavelength(about 200 km) in the high-frequency meridional velocity component of the horizontal velocity.