Magnitude–frequency relationships of debris flows and debris avalanches in relation to slope relief

Probability of occurrence, hazard intensity and encounter probability are key parameters in the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of landslides. All are strongly dependent on magnitude of the landslides. As a result, magnitude–frequency analysis should be a part of QRA. Deriving representative magnitude–frequency relationships for debris avalanches and debris flows, however, is difficult. One key problem is illustrated with the example of a unique database from the coastal region of British Columbia, Canada, which was compiled entirely from detailed ground investigations. The magnitude of debris avalanches and debris flows is not an independent statistical quantity, but a function of the scale of a given slope, as characterized by the slope length. Thus, attempting to derive probability and magnitude for a given location or sub-region from a regionally-derived magnitude–frequency curve may lead to incorrect predictions. The same problem is pertinent to the application of the same approach to any type of landslide in which the largest combined dimension of the source volume (including entrainment) is of the same order as the length of the slope. It is recommended that greater emphasis be placed on site-specific geological observations, at the expense of generalized statistics.     

Debris flows in Glacier National Park, Montana: geomorphology and hazards

Debris flows are one of the many active slope-forming processes within Glacier National Park, Montana. Most debris flow landforms exhibit classic morphology with a distinct failure scarp, incised channel, channel levees, and toe deposits that often develop a lobate form. The Precambrian metasediments that dominate Glacier National Park's geology weather into angular clasts that range in size from platy gravels to boulders. Classic debris flows occur in areas where the topographic expression provides a debris source from cliff faces and an accumulation of regolith, often in the form of talus slopes. Many of these debris flows have long runout zones and can travel many hundreds of meters. Often they cross hiking trails or roads, including the main east–west highway, Going-to-the-Sun Road. Debris flows impacting the road have resulted in several near fatalities, and hikers have been forced to cross active debris flows to reach safe ground. The magnitude of debris flows varies between high magnitude channel incising events and low magnitude channel filling and/or reworking events. The frequency of debris flow events is irregular and appears to be controlled by the hydrology of triggering storms and antecedent moisture conditions, not by the debris supply. As a result, debris flow magnitude is not a function of frequency, but is more closely related to the characteristics of antecedent conditions and individual storms.     

Depositional processes and particle characteristics on fans in the Southern Alps, New Zealand

Characteristics of surface particles on four fans dominated by different depositional processes are investigated in the sedimentary ranges of the Aoraki–Mount Cook area, Southern Alps, New Zealand. Statistical testing shows that on three of the fans all indices of particle size and roundness differ significantly according to the depositional process: snow avalanches produce the largest and most angular particles, streamflows the smallest and most rounded, with debris flows in between. On the fourth fan affected by all of these depositional processes, particle size and roundness indicate that snow avalanches are presently dominant with streamflow playing a secondary role. The results also show that all indices of particle size are strongly correlated with each other and suggest that the principal (a-) or intermediate (b-) axis length may provide a satisfactory substitute for more complex indices of size. Indices of particle shape generally do not differ significantly between the fans, reflecting both the strong control exerted on particle shape by source area lithology and structure and the geologic similarity of the four basins. Changes in particle size and roundness occur with down-fan distance on the snow avalanche, debris flow, and hybrid fans but not on the streamflow fan.     

The environmental history of a mountain lake (Lago Paione Superiore, Central Alps, Italy) for the last c. 100 years: a multidisciplinary, palaeolimnological study

A palaeoecological study of an oligotrophic alpine lake, Paione Superiore (Italy), provided a record of historical changes in water quality. Historical trends in lake acidification were reconstructed by means of calibration and regression equations from diatoms, chrysophycean scales and pigment ratios. The historical pH was inferred by using two different diatom calibration data sets, one specific to the alpine region. These pH trends, together with the record of sedimentary carbonaceous particles and chironomid remains, indicate a recent acidification of this low alkalinity lake.Concentration of total organic matter, organic carbon, nitrogen, biogenic silica (BSiO₂), chlorophyll derivatives (CD), fucoxanthin, diatom cell concentration and number of chironomid head capsules increased during the last 2–3 decades. When expressed as accumulation rates, most of these parameters tended to decrease from the past century to c. 1950, then all except P increased to the present day. A marked increase in sedimentary nitrogen may be related to atmospheric pollution and to the general increases in output of N in Europe. High C/N ratios indicate a prevailing allochthonous source of organic matter.Finally, the increase in measured air temperature from the mid-1800's appeared to be related to lake water pH before industrialization: cold periods generally led to lower pH and vice-versa. The more recent phenomenon of anthropogenic acidification has apparently decoupled this climatic-water chemistry relationship.     

A morphometric analysis of gullies scoured by post-fire progressively bulked debris flows in southwest Montana, USA

In the fall of 2001, an intense thunderstorm in southwest Montana triggered many debris flows in the burned area of Sleeping Child Creek. In most instances, the debris flows cut deep gullies into previously unchannelized colluvial hollows and deposited large volumes of sediment onto the valley floor. The presence of rill networks above the gullies as well as the absence of landslide features indicate that the gullies were scoured by progressively bulked debris flows, a process in which dilute surface runoff becomes increasingly more laden with sediment until it transforms into a debris flow. In this contribution, we present a morphometric analysis of six of the gullies to better understand this relatively understudied process. We find that the locations of the rill heads and gully heads conform to slope-area thresholds that are characteristic of erosion by overland flow. Our data also suggest that the volumes of the debris flows increase exponentially with normalized drainage area, thus lending support to an assumption used in a recently proposed debris flow incision law. Finally, the debris flow fans have been relatively unaltered since deposition, suggesting that the valley may be currently aggrading while the hillslopes are being denuded.     

A method for assessing regional debris flow risk: an application in Zhaotong of Yunnan province (SW China)

Based on the definitions of the United Nations, the assessment of risk involves the evaluation of both hazard and vulnerability. This forms the basis of a generalized assessment model of debris flow risk. Hazard is a measure of the threatening degree of an extreme event and is expressed theoretically as a function of event magnitude and frequency of occurrence. Mathematically, it is the definite integral area under the magnitude–frequency curve. Based on the need for a model applicable in regions that lack data, a new method that incorporates theoretical concepts with empirical analysis is presented to calculate the regional hazardousness of debris flows. Debris flow hazard can be estimated from gully density, mean annual rainfall and percentage of cultivated land on steep slope. Vulnerability is defined as the potential total maximum losses due to a potential damaging phenomenon for a specified area and during a reference period. On a regional scale, it is dependent on the fixed assets, gross domestic product, land resources and population density, as well as age, education and wealth of the inhabitants. A nonlinear, power-function model to compute the vulnerability degree is presented. An application of the proposed method to Zhaotong prefecture of Yunnan province, SW China, provides high accuracy and reasonable risk estimates. The highest risk of debris flow is in Zhaotong county with a value of 0.48; the lowest risk of debris flow is in Yanjin county with a value of 0.16. The other counties have debris flow risks ranging from 0.22 to 0.46. This provides an approach for assessing the regional debris flow risk and a basis for the formulation of a regional risk management policy in Zhaotong prefecture.     

The effects of vegetative ash on infiltration capacity, sediment transport, and the generation of progressively bulked debris flows

Through the alteration of the physical characteristics of a landscape, such as the destruction of vegetation and the formation of a hydrophobic layer, a fire can dramatically amplify erosion rates. On the basis of field observations, it has been proposed that the deposition of a layer of ash on the ground surface can enhance the erosion of mountainous terrain by surface runoff and might even be a necessary condition for the generation of progressively bulked debris flows. In this study, a flume was constructed to investigate the role of ash in increasing both the volume and the transport capacity of runoff. The experiments demonstrated that the presence of ash on the soil surface reduces the ability of flowing water to infiltrate; this effect is even greater when the ash has been pre-wetted. In addition, the ability of ash slurries to infiltrate decreases with increasing ash concentration. The results also indicate that the transport capacity of runoff is enhanced by the incorporation of ash into the flow because of the increased fluid density. However, the addition of ash reduces the boundary Reynolds number such that, at high ash concentrations and with fine-grained sediment, sediment transport declines as the flow becomes hydraulically smooth. The experimental results were also used to evaluate the ability of steep flow fronts, a common characteristic of debris flows and flash floods, to increase sediment transport rates. Finally, it is proposed that ash slurries may evolve into progressively bulked debris flows through a positive feedback between fluid density, transport capacity, and erosivity.     

三亚市旅游客流空间特性研究

旅游流是旅游目的地与客源地之间空间相互作用的结果。旅游客流空间特性是旅游地理学的重要研究内容。在大量实地调研的基础上 ,本文研究了中国典型的海滨旅游地---三亚市旅游客源市场的空间分布特征 ;在重力模型的基础上 ,以航空票价为经济距离指标 ,建立了基于航空廊道的旅游客流空间潜力模型 ;分析了三亚市旅游者空间行为特征。认为三亚市客源市场空间分布广泛 ,所建立的旅游客流空间潜力模型可以用于指导旅游目的地的旅游客源市场空间定位 ,三亚市旅游者空间行为以飞行 /驾驶式为主。建议三亚市建立旅游航空票价调节基金来降低飞机票价 ,降低旅游交通门槛 ,促进旅游客流量的增加。     

Morphometric Analysis on the Size, Shape and Areal Distribution of Glacial Cirques in the Maritime Alps (Western French-Italian Alps)

The morphometry of 432 glacial cirques in the Maritime Alps (Western French‐Italian Alps), studied over several years of fieldwork, was analysed with the use of a geographical information system. Some of the parameters automatically evaluated from digital elevation models required an objective and relatively new definition. In particular, cirque length was measured along a line that, from the threshold midpoint, splits the cirque into two equivalent surfaces; cirque width was automatically drawn as the longest line inscribed in the cirque and perpendicular to the length line. Significant correlations were found among the different factors and parameters analysed. In particular, cirque shape analysis showed that cirques develop allometrically in the three dimensions, i.e. more in length and width than in altitudinal range. Nevertheless cirques of the Maritime Alps have a regular, almost circular shape (mean L/W value = 1.07). The correlations among length, width and area are all very high (r²= 0.8–0.9). In terms of size, cirques show a wide range in area from 0.06 to 5.2 km² with a mean value of 0.4 km². The largest cirques are found on SSW‐facing slopes and at high elevations. Small cirques can be found at all altitudes but all those at high elevation are part of compound cirques at the main head valleys. Most cirques (37%) are characterized by a northern aspect; NE and SW are also frequent directions.     

The relief of the Swiss Alps and adjacent areas and its relation to lithology and structure: topographic analysis from a 250-m DEM

In this paper we discuss the large-scale geomorphological characteristics of the Swiss Alps based on numerical analysis of a digital elevation model and compare these to an erodibility map constructed from a geotechnical map of Switzerland and regional geomorphological studies. Comparing the erodibility map with the large-scale morphometry shows an intimate relationship between mountain-scale erodibility and topography. On average, higher mean elevations and steeper mean slopes correlate with regions where rocks of low erodibility prevail. Areas with high peaks as well as the main water divides are controlled by the presence of bedrock with low to very low detachability. The drainage network of the Swiss Alps shows a close relationship to the lithological differences as well. Major longitudinal valleys follow easily erodible units. In the eastern and western part of the Swiss Alps, the highest values of local relief are located to the south of the main water divide, whereas in the central part, local relief is higher to the north of the main water divide. The large-scale geomorphic characteristics regarded in the framework of the geological history of uplift and denudation suggest that low and very low erodibilities lead to the development of areas of high elevations which are likely to persist over periods of 10–15 Ma. As the analysis of the Lepontine area shows, 20 Ma after cessation of exhumation, such high elevations are likely to be worn down and to manifest themselves as high relief only.     

Landsliding and sediment flux in the Central Swiss Alps: A photogrammetric study of the Schimbrig landslide, Entlebuch

This study explores the effects of hillslope mass failure on the sediment flux in the Waldemme drainage basin, Central Swiss Alps, over decadal time scales. This area is characterized by abundant landslides affecting principally flysch units and is therefore an important sediment source. The analysis concentrates on the Schimbrig landslide that potentially contributes up to 15% to the sediment budget of the Waldemme drainage basin. Volumetric changes are quantified using high-resolution elevation models that were extracted using digital photogrammetric techniques. Sediment discharge data were used to constrain the significance of the landslide for sediment flux in the channel network. The temporal extent of the photogrammetric analysis ranges from 1962 to 1998, including an earth slide event in 1994. The analyses reveal that during periods of low slip rates of the landslide, nearly all of the displaced sediments were eroded and supplied to the channel network. In contrast, during active periods, only a fraction of the displaced landslide mass was exported to the trunk stream. Interestingly, the 1994 earth slide event did not disturb the long-term sediment discharge pattern of the channel network, nor did it influence the sediment flux at a weekly scale. However, suspended sediment pulses correlate with higher-than-average precipitation events. This was especially the case in August 2005 when a storm event (> 100 years return period) triggered several debris flows and earth flows in the whole drainage basin and in the Schimbrig area. This storm did not result in a significant increase in the slip rates of the entire landslide's main body. It is therefore proposed that debris flows and earth flows perform the connectivity between hillslope processes (e.g. landsliding) and the trunk stream during and between phases of landslide activity in this particular setting.     

Spatial and temporal rockfall activity in a forest stand in the Swiss Prealps—A dendrogeomorphological case study

Rockfall is a major threat to settlements and transportation routes in large parts of the Alps. While protective forest stands in many locations undoubtedly reduce rockfall risk, little is known about the exact frequency and spatial distribution of rockfall activity in a given place or about how these parameters can be assessed. Therefore, the objective of the present study was to reconstruct rockfall events with dendrogeomorphological methods and to analyse the spatial and temporal rockfall activity in a subalpine forest stand. The study site is located in the transit zone of frequently passing, rather small rockfall fragments (mean diameter of 10 to 20 cm). In all, 33 stem discs from previously felled Picea abies trees found at the foot of Schwarzenberg in Diemtigtal (Swiss Prealps) were sampled, and a total number of 301 rockfall events were dated to between A.D. 1724 and 2002.Results showed that the spatial distribution of rockfall changed slightly with time, and that rockfall activity increased considerably over the last century. In contrast, rockfall magnitude presumably remained on a comparable level. The seasonal occurrence of rockfall showed a clear peak during the dormant season of trees, most probably in early spring. Furthermore, on a 10-year moving average basis, rockfall rates were positively correlated with mean annual as well as summer and winter temperatures. This means that higher temperatures resulted in increased rockfall activity. On the other hand, no correlation with annual or seasonal precipitation totals was revealed. Overall, this study provides an appropriate method for the detailed assessment of spatial and temporal variations in rockfall activity in a given place.     

Differential compaction and early rock fracturing in high‐relief carbonate platforms: numerical modelling of a Triassic case study (Esino Limestone,Central Southern Alps,Italy)

Numerical models were used to investigate the effects of differential compaction on strain development and early fracturing in an early cemented high‐relief Triassic carbonate platform prograding onto basinal sediments, whose thickness increases basinward. Results show that basinal sediment compaction induces stretching of internal platform and slope strata in prograding platforms. When sediments are early cemented, such extensional strain is accommodated by the generation of syndepositional fractures. The amount of stretching is predicted to increase from the oldest to the youngest layers, due to the thickening of the compactable basinal sequences towards the external parts of the platform. Stretching is also controlled by the characteristics of the basin: the thicker and the more compactable the basinal sediments, the larger will be the stretching. Numerical modelling has been applied to the Ladinian–Early Carnian carbonate platform of the Esino Limestone (Central Southern Alps of Italy). This case study is favourable for numerical modelling, as it is well exposed and both its internal geometry (inner platform, reef and prograding clinostratified slope deposits) and the relationship with the adjacent basin can be fully reconstructed, as the Alpine tectonic overprint is weak in the study area. Evidence for early fracturing (fractures filled by fibrous cements coeval with the platform development) is described and the location, orientation and width of the fractures measured. The fractures are mainly steeply dipping and oriented perpendicularly to the direction of progradation of the platform, mimicking local platform‐margin trends. The integration of numerical models with field data gives the opportunity to quantify the extension triggered by differential compaction and predict the possible distribution of early fractures in carbonate platforms of known geometry and thickness, whereas the interpretation of early fractures as the effects of differential compaction can be supported or rejected by the comparison with the results of ad hoc numerical modelling.     

横断山区泥石流空间格局和激发雨量分异性研究

地形、降雨等环境因子决定了泥石流的时空分布特征,理解泥石流与这些因子的关系有助于区域泥石流灾害风险评估与防灾减灾工作。以横断山区为研究区域,选取降水、气候、地貌、地质、土地覆盖、土壤厚度、高差势能以及湿度指数等因子,利用地理探测器和灰度关联分析等方法,探讨了环境因子与泥石流沟空间分布的关系以及降水特征与泥石流灾害的时间关联性。结果表明,湿度指数是决定泥石流沟空间格局的最主要因子,其次是高差势能和土壤厚度,多年平均分布的降水特征对泥石流沟分布的影响较小。泥石流灾害事件与降水特征的时间关联具有较大的区域异质性。泥石流发生地的激发雨量、湿度指数、高差及土壤厚度的统计分布在不同地貌、地质和气候单元中有明显差异。这表明泥石流预警不仅需要考虑雨量等激发因子,还必须考虑其他影响因素的空间差异性。     

Spatial analysis of rockfall activity, bounce heights and geomorphic changes over the last 50 years – A case study using dendrogeomorphology

Tree-ring series have been used to reconstruct 50 years of rockfall behavior on a slope near Saas Balen (Swiss Alps). A total of 796 cores and 141 cross sections from 191 severely injured conifer trees (Larix decidua Mill., Picea abies (L.) Karst. and Pinus cembra L.), combined with a series of aerial photographs, were used to investigate the evolution of the forest stand so as (i) to reconstruct past rockfall rates; (ii) to analyze the spatial behavior of maximum bounce heights; and (iii) to analyze the spatial comportment of rockfall activity over the last five decades.Tree-ring analysis permitted the reconstruction of the age distribution at the study site; results were in perfect agreement with the afforestation process shown in the aerial photographs. The oldest are located in the lower, central part of the study site; the youngest individuals at its uppermost lateral boundaries. Reconstructed rockfall rates reveal strong interannual variations and single event years with increased activity, namely in 1960/1961 and 1995. Spatial analysis of the maximum bounce heights indicate highest values at the lateral boundaries and lowest heights in the lower central part of the forest stand, where a big boulder seems to shield trees growing below it. The spatial analysis of past rockfall activity shows high active zones at the uppermost north-facing boundaries of the forest and least active zones in the lowermost central part of the studied stand. The high rockfall activity at the slope is expressed by a mean rockfall rate of > 1 event m^− 1 y^− 1.     

“流空间”视角下高速公路交通流网络结构特征及其形成机制——以广东省为例

交通流是城市经济联系最显性的表现,为更清晰地识别城市网络结构提供了新视角。本研究采用高速公路联网收费数据作为交通流“关系数据”,综合图论、社会网络分析法（SNA）和GIS空间分析,以广东省为研究区域探索高速公路交通流网络空间结构特征,并利用QAP回归法探究影响网络形成的因素。结果表明：① 广东省高速公路已形成典型的网络式空间结构,具有“小世界”网络效应。其节点度值服从幂律无标度分布,交通出入量基本平衡,节点重要性自区域中心向外围递减;网络有向边权值等级差异显著,优势交通流具有“向心指向”特征和距离依赖性。② GDP、常住人口、社会消费品零售总额、县区间行驶距离等已成为影响广东省高速公路交通流网络形成的重要因素。其中人口因素是影响城市间交通流动的主要因素,网络形成受制于距离因素,消费因素逐渐成为刺激城市间交通流动的强大动力。③ 广东省高速公路交通流动模式分为邻近指向型、中心指向型和等级指向型三种,以邻近指向型为典型模式。研究结果对于揭示交通流动规律,丰富城市网络理论,推动道路合理规划和区域协调发展具有重要理论和实践意义。     

Evolution of clay mineral assemblages and organic matter in the late glacial-Holocene sedimentary infill of Lake Annecy, (northwestern Alps): paleoenvironmental implications

The basin fill of Lake Annecy was investigated from a 44 m core which reached down to glacial sediments of the last glaciation (called Würm in the alpine areas). We analyzed three main parameters: sediment texture (optical microscopy and laser microgranulometry), clay mineral assemblages (CMA by XRD), and organic matter (OM by Rock-Eval pyrolysis). Settling of suspended load, under variable hydrodynamic conditions is the main depositional process. Both CMA and OM provenances can be recognized for the different sedimentary and igneous-metamorphic formations (Carboniferous to Quaternary, and older crystalline basement) and corresponding areas, in the surrounding region of Lake Annecy. Oligocene-Miocene molasses, Early Cretaceous marls, and Early-Middle Jurassic marls and shales are the main sedimentary sources. Two distinct processes were operating: destruction of glacial sediments (till sensu largo) and reworking, or direct erosion and run-off from ice-free catchment areas. Clay minerals related to pedogenesis, and non-reworked terrestrial and lacustrine OM, were progessively added to these primary sources during the Late Würmian/Holocene transition to warmer climatic conditions. Rapid modifications of CMA and OM sources during the earlier phase of sedimentary infilling (Unit 2) suggest that valley glaciers connected to the lake basin almost completely disappeared within a few centuries.     

The morphometric and stratigraphic framework for estimates of debris flow incidence in the North Cascades foothills, Washington State, USA

Active debris flow fans in the North Cascade Foothills of Washington State constitute a natural hazard of importance to land managers, private property owners and personal security. In the absence of measurements of the sediment fluxes involved in debris flow events, a morphological-evolutionary systems approach, emphasizing stratigraphy, dating, fan morphology and debris flow basin morphometry, was used. Using the stratigraphic framework and 47 radiocarbon dates, frequency of occurrence and relative magnitudes of debris flow events have been estimated for three spatial scales of debris flow systems: the within-fan site scale (84 observations); the fan meso-scale (six observations) and the lumped fan, regional or macro-scale (one fan average and adjacent lake sediments). In order to characterize the morphometric framework, plots of basin area v. fan area, basin area v. fan gradient and the Melton ruggedness number v. fan gradient for the 12 debris flow basins were compared with those documented for semi-arid and paraglacial fans. Basin area to fan area ratios were generally consistent with the estimated level of debris flow activity during the Holocene as reported below. Terrain analysis of three of the most active debris flow basins revealed the variety of modes of slope failure and sediment production in the region.Micro-scale debris flow event systems indicated a range of recurrence intervals for large debris flows from 106−3645 years. The spatial variation of these rates across the fans was generally consistent with previously mapped hazard zones. At the fan meso-scale, the range of recurrence intervals for large debris flows was 273−1566 years and at the regional scale, the estimated recurrence interval of large debris flows was 874 years (with undetermined error bands) during the past 7290 years. Dated lake sediments from the adjacent Lake Whatcom gave recurrence intervals for large sediment producing events ranging from 481−557 years over the past 3900 years and clearly discernible sedimentation events in the lacustrine sediments had a recurrence interval of 67−78 years over that same period.