The use of information on atmospheric conditions for determining the impact areas of space rocket modules

The results of the simulation of atmospheric impact on the scattering of space rocket modules are presented. It is demonstrated that the values of forecasted impact areas of space rocket modules decrease by almost two times in the case of the use of the data on the actual and predicted atmospheric conditions.     

大气垂直运动廓线特征及其与云和辐射的关联性分析：以CMIP6三个模式为例

基于第六次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的3个全球气候模式结果,利用经验正交分解方法和参数方法分析了模式模拟的热带地区大尺度大气垂直运动廓线特征并揭示其与云和辐射量的关系。结果表明,基于EOF分解方法,3个模式均可较好地再现热带大气垂直运动特征,即热带大气垂直运动90%以上的方差可由两个主导的垂直结构模态解释,其中EOF1表征大气的整体上升或下沉,EOF2表征一个由深厚的中层辐合辐散占主导的垂直运动廓线。在此基础上定义了一对更为简洁易用的参数(ω和dω),此对参数可较好地描述EOF分解所揭示出的垂直运动廓线特征。利用新定义的参数发现,在西太平洋暖池区域,高云在"上重"下沉区域为低值,中云云量在"下重"上升运动区域为高值。大气层顶对外长波短波辐射均表现出对运动廓线结构的依赖。研究为评估气候模式对云和辐射模拟提供了一组有效因子。     

Modeling and assessing the effects of land use changes on runoff generation with the CLUE-s and WetSpa models

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Land use change is an important determinant of hydrological processes and is known to affect hydrological parameters such as runoff volume, flood frequency,...     

A global satellite view of the seasonal distribution of mineral dust and its correlation with atmospheric circulation

Aerosols make a considerable contribution to the climate system through their radiative and cloud condensation nuclei effects, which underlines the need for understanding the origin of aerosols and their transport pathways. Seasonal distribution of mineral dust around the globe and its correlation with atmospheric circulation is investigated using satellite data, and meteorological data from ECMWF. The most important sources of dust are located in North Africa, the Middle East and Southwest Asia with an observed summer maximum, and East Asia with a spring peak. Maximum dust activity over North Africa and the Middle East in summer is attributed to dry convection associated with the summertime low-pressure system, while unstable weather and dry conditions are responsible for the spring peak in dust emission in East Asia. Intercontinental transport of mineral dust by atmospheric circulation has been observed, including trans-Atlantic transport of North African dust, trans-Pacific transport of Asian dust, and transport of dust from the Middle East across the Indian Ocean. The extent of African dust over the Atlantic Ocean and its latitudinal variation with season is related to the large-scale atmospheric circulation, including seasonal changes in the position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and variation of wind patterns. North African aerosols extend over longer distances across the North Atlantic in summer because of greater dust emission, an intensified easterly low level jet (LLJ) and strengthening of the Azores-Bermuda anticyclonic circulation. Transport of East Asian aerosol is facilitated by the existence of a LLJ that extends from East Asia to the west coast of North America.     

Radioactive contamination of the Central Russian Upland and its surroundings 21 years after the Chernobyl NPP accident

The Chernobyl NPP accident resulted, due to the western atmospheric transfer, in the formation of a pattern crossing the Central Russian Upland and its surroundings in the latitudinal direction. A volatile long–lived dose-forming radionuclide 137Cs prevailed in the fallout. A peculiar character of the Central Russian Upland division by valleys and balkas could result in a 20–year period in radioactivity displacement down the slop to valleys. This article is devoted to checking the significance of such changes. The issue on revealing the differences between the measured contamination density values 21 years after the depositions and the expected values (calculated with the correction for 137Cs decay) is also under consideration.     

沈阳近地层大气颗粒物浓度垂直变化特征及与气象因子的关系

利用2018年10月1日至2019年9月30日沈阳地区三个高度大气颗粒物浓度和气象要素逐时观测资料,分析了不同高度颗粒物浓度时间变化特征及其与气象要素的关系.结果表明:不同高度的颗粒物浓度均存在明显的季节变化,秋冬季数值明显高于春夏季.冬季,三个高度的PM2.5平均浓度为54.98±12.67μg·m-3、63.77±...     

The role of money and the financial sector in energy-economy models used for assessing climate and energy policy

This article outlines a critical gap in the assessment methodology used to estimate the macroeconomic costs and benefits of climate and energy policy, which could lead to misleading information being used for policy-making. We show that the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models that are typically used for assessing climate policy use assumptions about the financial system that sit at odds with the observed reality. These assumptions lead to ‘crowding out’ of capital and, because of the way the models are constructed, negative economic impacts (in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and welfare) from climate policy in virtually all cases.

In contrast, macro-econometric models, which follow non-equilibrium economic theory and adopt a more empirical approach, apply a treatment of the financial system that is more consistent with reality. Although these models also have major limitations, they show that green investment need not crowd out investment in other parts of the economy – and may therefore offer an economic stimulus. Our conclusion is that improvements in both modelling approaches should be sought with some urgency – both to provide a better assessment of potential climate and energy policy and to improve understanding of the dynamics of the global financial system more generally.

POLICY RELEVANCE

This article discusses the treatment of the financial system in the macroeconomic models that are used in assessments of climate and energy policy. It shows major limitations in approach that could result in misleading information being provided to policy-makers.     

Three-dimensional semi-empirical climate model of water vapor distribution and its implementation to the radiation module of the middle and upper atmosphere model

To provide the more accurate simulation of stationary planetary waves and atmospheric tides using the middle and upper atmosphere model (MUAM), the three-dimensional (longitude-latitude-height) semi-empirical climate model of water vapor distribution in the troposphere was developed which takes into account seasonal variations. The modules of radiation heating and cooling in the MUAM model were modified taking into account the dependence of water vapor concentration on longitude. The simulations performed using the modified version of MUAM revealed that the consideration of water vapor concentration variability along the circle of latitude leads to the substantial dependence of solar heating on longitude that affects the amplitudes of stationary planetary waves in the stratosphere.     

On the occurrence of very low frequency (VLF) electromagnetic radiation and its relation to some important physical conditions of the atmosphere

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Continuous recordings of VLF electromagnetic radiation were statistically compared with physical conditions of the atmosphere. The VLF level is closely...     

Profile measurements in the atmospheric near-surface layer and the use of suitable universal functions for the determination of the turbulent energy exchange

The authors summarize their recent published studies on profile measurements including new universal functions and an error analysis with a particular view to parameterisation above soil and water. Verification of the theoretical results is given using new data of the MESP-81 Tsimlyansk experiment.     

Description of radiation conditions and evaluation of the date of <Superscript>137</Superscript>Cs release to the atmosphere using the radionuclide transfer model coupled with the forecasts by the mesoscale hydrodynamic model

The estimates of ¹³⁷Cs emissions from the accident happened in Elektrostal at the beginning of April 12, 2013 are presented. The transport of radionuclides and their dry and wet deposition on the surface are computed using the Lagrangian stochastic model of the NOSTRADAMUS software package worked out by Nuclear Safety Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences. Prognostic fields of wind (horizontal and vertical components) in the lower troposphere, precipitation, and vertical and horizontal turbulence diffusivity coefficients in the lower atmosphere (up to 4 km) were used as input data. Prognostic fields were obtained using the WRF-ARW numerical mesoscale model.     

Testing the method for surface air temperature refinement based on a complex of models of the atmospheric boundary layer and local heat and water budgets

A method is considered for space-time refinement of surface air temperature obtained from the atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia over a limited area by means of use of a complex of the atmospheric boundary layer models and surface heat and water budget model. The latter describes all major processes of heat and water exchange at the underlying surface and within the soil and vegetation using 14 external parameters for different types of landscapes and soils. The side and upper boundary conditions for the local model are provided from the GCM model. Different statistical estimates of the modeling results show possibility and reliability of the refinement for time changes of the quantity under calculation as well as for development of averaged fields reflecting small-scale inhomogeneities of the landscape.     

A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts

Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections.     

Proof of the monotonicity of grid size and its application in grid-size selection for mesoscale models

Terrain characteristics can be accurately represented in spectrum space. Terrain spectra can quantitatively reflect the effect of topographic dynamic forcing on the atmosphere. In wavelength space, topographic spectral energy decreases with decreasing wavelength, in spite of several departures. This relationship is approximated by an exponential function. A power law relationship between the terrain height spectra and wavelength is fitted by the least-squares method, and the fitting slope is associated with grid-size selection for mesoscale models. The monotonicity of grid size is investigated, and it is strictly proved that grid size increases with increasing fitting exponent, indicating that the universal grid size is determined by the minimum fitting exponent. An example of landslide-prone areas in western Sichuan is given, and the universal grid spacing of 4.1 km is shown to be a requirement to resolve 90% of terrain height variance for mesoscale models, without resorting to the parameterization of subgrid-scale terrain variance. Comparison among results of different simulations shows that the simulations estimate the observed precipitation well when using a resolution of 4.1 km or finer. Although the main flow patterns are similar, finer grids produce more complex patterns that show divergence zones, convergence zones and vortices.Horizontal grid size significantly affects the vertical structure of the convective boundary layer. Stronger vertical wind components are simulated for finer grid resolutions. In particular, noticeable sinking airflows over mountains are captured for those model configurations.     

Reconstructions of spring/summer precipitation for the Eastern Mediterranean from tree-ring widths and its connection to large-scale atmospheric circulation

This study represents the first large-scale systematic dendroclimatic sampling focused on developing chronologies from different species in the eastern Mediterranean region. Six reconstructions were developed from chronologies ranging in length from 115 years to 600 years. The first reconstruction (1885–2000) was derived from principal components (PCs) of 36 combined chronologies. The remaining five, 1800–2000, 1700–2000, 1600–2000, 1500–2000 and 1400–2000 were developed from PCs of 32, 18, 14, 9, and 7 chronologies, respectively. Calibration and verification statistics for the period 1931–2000 show good levels of skill for all reconstructions. The longest period of consecutive dry years, defined as those with less than 90% of the mean of the observed May–August precipitation, was 5 years (1591–1595) and occurred only once during the last 600 years. The longest reconstructed wet period was 5 years (1601–1605 and 1751–1755). No long term trends were found in May–August precipitation during the last few centuries. Regression maps are used to identify the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on regional precipitation. In general, tree-ring indices are influenced by May–August precipitation, which is driven by anomalous below (above) normal pressure at all atmospheric levels and by convection (subsidence) and small pressure gradients at sea level. These atmospheric conditions also control the anomaly surface air temperature distribution which indicates below (above) normal values in the southern regions and warmer (cooler) conditions north of around 40°N. A compositing technique is used to extract information on large-scale climate signals from extreme wet and dry summers for the second half of the twentieth century and an independent reconstruction over the last 237 years. Similar main modes of atmospheric patterns and surface air temperature distribution related to extreme dry and wet summers were identified both for the most recent 50 years and the last 237 years. Except for the last few decades, running correlation analyses between the major European-scale circulation patterns and eastern Mediteranean spring/summer precipitation over the last 237 years are non-stationary and insignificant, suggesting that local and/or sub-regional geographic factors and processes are important influences on tree-ring variability over the last few centuries.     

Implications of atmospheric CO2 enrichment and climatic change for the geographical distribution of two introduced vines in the U.S.A.

The continuing increase in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration resulting from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation may change the ecological impact and geographical distribution of kudzu (Pueraria lobata Ohwi) and Japanese honeysuckle (Lonicera japonica Thunb.) in the U.S.A. Both vines were introduced about a century ago from Japan and have become naturalized weeds. Westward range expansion is currently limited by drought during seedling establishment, while northward range expansion is limited by low temperature sensitivity of overwintering stems.Direct effects of CO₂ enrichment on growth were assessed by growing the plants in controlled environment chambers at 350, 675, or 1000 l/L CO₂. In both species, CO₂ enrichment increased instantaneous water use efficiency by increasing photosynthetic rates and reducing transpiration rates. During a drought stress, CO₂ enrichment delayed significant decline in total water potential of kudzu by several days. When grown in a cool temperature regime of 18/12 °C day/night, the CO₂ enrichment significantly increased leaf area and total biomass of both species and plants were taller and had more branches. These results suggested that atmospheric CO₂ enrichment may allow westward and northward spread of both species in the U.S.A.Indirect effects of CO₂ induced climate change (Greenhouse Effect) on the vines' distribution were assessed. Predictions based on current models of climatic response were used to project changes in winter temperatures at doubled CO₂ concentrations. Increases in average and minimum winter temperatures by 3 °C could allow northward spread of both species by several hundred kilometers. Projected decreases in summer precipitation may minimize westward spread, despite improved water use efficiency and increased drought tolerance.This study was supported by NSF Grant No. BSR82-15533 and Contract No. DEAS05-83ER06177 from the Carbon Dioxide Research Office, Dept. of Energy to B. R. Strain and NSF Grant No. BSR83-14925 for the Duke University Phytotron.     

A monitoring network for erythemally-effective solar ultraviolet radiation in Austria: determination of the measuring sites and visualisation of the spatial distribution

Summary In 1997 the Austrian ultraviolet radiation monitoring network was to built up to measure continuously erythemally-effective ultraviolet radiation. For this network the necessary measuring sites had to be selected by an objective method. Therefore a method was used, based on the de-correlation distances, calculated by the daily maximum of the global solar irradiance across the entire spectrum. For a correlation coefficient of 0.90, de-correlation distances were found to be in the order of 170 km (East-West) and 40 km (North-South). From this, 7 measuring sites wereselected to derive a total coverage of Austria. For the visualisation of the measured erythemally-effective solar radiation an optimum interpolation method was used to calculate the spatial distribution. The topography of Austria was used for height correction. The global solar radiation of 39 stations is also used to include the spatial distribution of cloud cover and the resulting attenuation of the erythemally-effective radiation. The combination of these two data sets provides an accuracy estimation of people’s exposure to erythemally-effective UV radiation within the mountainous country of Austria. Received September 12, 1999/Revised April 6, 2001