Influence of the tropical cyclone Omar on the weather in Europe

A case of the Atlantic tropical cyclone influence on the weather of Europe is considered. It is demonstrated on the basis of computations of the numerical mesoscale ETA model that one of the reasons of the positive air temperature anomaly in fall 2008 was the tropical cyclone Omar. The detailed analysis was carried out of the computation results of the movement and evolution of the tropical cyclone Omar and of the atmospheric structures surrounding it. The energy characteristics, the explicit and latent heat fluxes, and the precipitation in the tropical cyclone were computed. The computations revealed that starting since the certain moment, the tropical storm Omar actively interacted with the polar front which shifted to the low latitudes and with the extratropical disturbance of synoptic scale which originated on this front. It was obtained that this interaction resulted in the transfer of the huge tropical cyclone energy to the extratropical pole-front cyclone and in the intensification of the latter one. It is demonstrated that the air which circulated in the tropical cyclone and possessed high the thermohygrometric characteristics entered the warm sector of extratropical cyclone and was carried out to Europe.     

The climatic effects of the stratospheric volcanic ash

The climatic effects of the stratospheric volcanic ash are simulated. The model we used is a primitive equation model with the P-σ incorporated coordinate system. The model has 5 layers in the atmosphere and 2 layers in the soil. The volcanic ash is introduced to the first (highest) model layer with a fixed optical thickness of 0.1275. Two comparative numerical experiments with and without the volcanic ash are made. Results show that the effects of the stratospheric volcanic ash on the formations of the mean climatic fields are much smaller than those of the land-sea distribution and the large scale topography. However, it does have contributions to the anomalies of the basic climatic states. The direct effect of the volcanic ash is to increase the temperature in the stratosphere. It can also influence the temperature and the height fields of isobaric surfaces, horizontal and vertical motions, precipitation and the surface climate through dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the atmosphere.     

Lidar observations of volcanic aerosol content in the atmosphere over Tomsk

Lidar observations carried out in Tomsk in August 2008 enabled to register the peaks of the back scattering ratio at the altitudes of 8–16 and 18–22 km. The computation of air masses movement trajectories demonstrated that the peaks at the altitudes of 8–16 km correspond to the aerosol layers formed as a result of volcanic eruptions on the Aleutian Islands in July–August 2008. The original software package along with the daily wind speed BADC data and HYSPLIT software with the six-hour GDAS data were used for computations. The periods from the time of eruptions to the time of observations amounted to one or two weeks and more. The verification of results of these computations for these long periods was made on the basis of the satellite data on the sulfur dioxide distribution in the atmosphere after the eruption of the Kasatochi volcano. The computation method applied enabled to simulate the main distribution characteristics of sulfur dioxide pollution areas in the atmosphere within one or two weeks after the eruption.     

Analysis of early instrumental air temperature observations before and after the Tambora volcano eruption

The study analyzes the recently summarized data on surface air temperature in the east of North America, in Western and Eastern Europe, and in India before and after the Tambora volcano eruption occurred in Indonesia in 1815. The well-known fact is proved that no cooling occurred after the Tambora eruption in the east of Europe and in India. It is found that the insignificant (at the decadal timescale) cooling was observed in all analyzed regions: it started earlier than the Tambora eruption and than the stronger eruption of another volcano in 1809. The paper demonstrates that it is impossible to reveal cause-effect relations between the general cooling and the eruption of the above volcanoes based on the available data on surface air temperature. Cold snaps that follow the later volcanic eruptions were identified by meteorologists using the data of the whole network of meteorological observations established in the second half of the 19th century. However, these cold snaps cannot be detected using data on surface air temperature only.     

Remote and in situ measurements of aerosol concentration in the Arctic troposphere from the Yak-42D “Roshydromet” research aircraft

The results are presented of measurements of aerosol content at different heights in the Arctic troposphere in the area of Naryan-Mar city and the Yamal Peninsula on June 24, 2014 using in situ and remote instruments installed on the Yak-42D "Roshydromet" research aircraft. The maximum aerosol content was detected in the layer up to 3000 m, and the aerosol concentration in the troposphere over the Yamal Peninsula is higher than that in the area of Naryan-Mar by 100 times. The in situ aircraft instrument measured the number concentration of black carbon particles in the tropospheric aerosol. To identify the sources of aerosol in the Arctic troposphere during airborne measurements the air mass trajectory analysis was performed. Simulations were conducted using the TRACAO trajectory model and FLEXPART particle dispersion model. The possible contribution of long-range and local transport of industrial pollutants to the Arctic troposphere was analyzed. The air mass transport was simulated using the trajectory model. Model computations of aerosol concentration in the troposphere using the satellite data on the gas flaring incite that the high content of black carbon in the lower troposphere over the Yamal Peninsula was caused by its transfer from the oil-producing areas located on the adjoining territory of Russia. The contribution of long-range transport of pollutants from industrial enterprises in Western Europe to the Arctic area under study was insignificant in the period under consideration.     

Climatology and long-term variability of the annual cycle of air temperature over Europe

Climatology and long-term variations of characteristics of the annual cycle of air temperature over Europe are studied in terms of amplitudes and phases on the basis of data for 1901–2000. It is shown that the spatial amplitude distribution of the annual cycle of air temperature well reflects a decrease in the influence of the Atlantic and an increase in the continentality of the European climate from west to east. It is found that positive (negative) anomalies of annual mean air temperature are accompanied mainly by negative (positive) anomalies of amplitudes and phases of the annual cycle air temperature. In other words, abnormally warm years are characterized by smaller amplitudes of the annual cycle, and the maximum in the annual cycle of air temperature is observed earlier than usual. The first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of temperature amplitudes is connected with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). It means that at a high NAO index one observes small (large) amplitudes of the annual cycle of air temperature over Europe.     

BCC模式对北半球阻塞高压的模拟偏差评估及原因

基于NCEP/NCAR、日本气象厅的JRA55以及欧洲中期预报中心（ECMWF）最新发布的ERA5三套逐日再分析资料数据,考察国家气候中心中等分辨率（约110 km）的气候系统模式BCC-CSM2-MR和单独大气模式BCC-AGCM3-MR对北半球中高纬度阻塞高压（阻高）的模拟能力。再分析数据分析结果表明:“北大西洋—欧洲地区”以及“北太平洋中部地区”分别为北半球阻高发生的最高频及次高频区域;冬春季为阻高高发季节,夏秋季阻高频率减少至冬春季的一半左右;ERA5再分析资料中各个季节的阻高频率均高于另两套资料结果,尤其在北太平洋地区。模拟评估结果显示,单独大气模式BCC-AGCM3-MR对北半球中高纬度阻高发生频率、空间分布和季节变化特征均有较好的模拟能力,其主要偏差表现为冬春欧亚大陆特别是乌拉尔山地区阻高频率偏高,而北大西洋地区阻高频率偏低;春季北太平洋阻高频率偏低。这与模式北半球高纬度地区500 hPa位势高度场气候态偏差有关。BCC-CSM2-MR耦合模式的阻高模拟偏差总体与大气模式类似。但耦合模式中冬季欧亚大陆特别是乌拉尔山地区阻高频率减小、北太平洋春季阻高频率增大,模拟偏差减小。同时,耦合模式能够再现夏季北太平洋东西阻高频率双峰值特征。因此,海气耦合过程有助于改善对欧亚及北太平洋地区阻高频率模拟。阻高频率年际变率受到气候系统内部变率不确定性的较大影响,这也是制约阻高预测水平的重要因素。     

High-resolution simulations of the last glacial maximum climate over Europe: a solution to discrepancies with continental palaeoclimatic reconstructions?

The analyses of low-resolution models simulations of the last glacial maximum (LGM, 21 kyr BP) climate have revealed a large discrepancy between all the models and pollen-based palaeoclimatic reconstructions. In general, the models are too warm relative to the observations, especially in winter, where the difference is of the order of 10°C over western Europe. One of the causes of this discrepancy may be related to the low spatial resolution of these models. To assess the impact of using high-resolution models on simulated climate sensitivity, we use three approaches to obtain high-resolution climate simulations over Europe: first an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with a stretched grid over Europe, second a homogeneous T106 AGCM (high resolution everywhere on the globe) and last a limited area model (LAM) nested in a low-resolution AGCM. With all three methods, we have performed simulations of the European climate for present and LGM conditions, according to the experimental design recommended by the Palaeoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Model results have been compared with updated pollen-based palaeoclimatic indicators for temperature and precipitation that were initially developed in PMIP. For each model, a low-resolution global run was also performed. As expected, the low-resolution simulations underestimate the large cooling indicated by pollen data, especially in winter, despite revised slightly warmer reconstructions of the temperatures of the coldest month, and show results in the range of those obtained in PMIP with similar models. The two high-resolution AGCMs do not improve the temperature field and cannot account for the discrepancy between model results and data, especially in winter. However, they are able to reproduce trends in precipitation more closely than their low-resolution counterparts do, but the simulated climates are still not as arid as depicted by the data. Conversely, the LAM temperature results compare well with climate reconstructions in winter but the simulated hydrological cycle is not consistent with the data. Finally, these results are discussed in regard of other possible causes for discrepancies between models and palaeoclimatic reconstructions for the LGM European climate.     

区域气候模式REMO对东亚季风季节变化的模拟研究

将欧洲区域气候模式REMO首次应用于东亚区域,利用该模式对1980年和1990年东亚季风季节变化进行了模拟研究,并将模拟结果与NCEP再分析资料进行比较,以检验该模式对东亚季风的模拟能力.研究表明,区域气候模式REMO能够较好地模拟出东亚地区高、低空的大气环流特征,模拟的高度场、流场和温度场与NCEP再分析资料场都比较一致.模拟结果显示了东亚季风的月变化和季节转换特征.模拟的降水场与GPCC降水资料的对比结果表明,REMO能较为成功地模拟出东亚地区降水的空间分布,并能较好地反映降水的季节变化及主要降水趋势,夏季降水模拟偏大,整个区域平均的降水量偏差约为18%左右.     

基于随机森林算法的广州白云机场终端区雷暴潜势预报

利用2014—2015年夏季雷达资料获取雷暴发生有无数据,计算探空资料的对流指数与雷暴发生有无数据的灰色关联度,发现雷暴产生跟抬升凝结高度气压、850～700 hPa的温度和露点温度、风切变的关系最紧密。接着建立广州白云机场终端区内3类区域(离塔台中心8 km、50 km、100 km)的12小时随机森林分类模型,对不同区域的雷暴潜势进行预报和评估,发现终端区区域面积越大,雷暴发生样本比例越高,临界成功指数CSI、预报准确率AF、探测概率POD越来越高,虚假报警率FAR越来越低,表明预报出来的准确率越来越高。离塔台中心50 km和100 km区域的预报准确率AF和探测概率POD超过70%,对航空重要天气MDRS通报业务有指示作用。同时袋外错误率均低于1/3,随机森林算法的泛化性能好。     

Multi-model seasonal hindcasts over the Euro-Atlantic: skill scores and dynamic features

 A group of multi-model seasonal hindcast experiments for Europe are verified and analysed using as reference the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts re-analysis and Xie and Arkin precipitation data. Each model's systematic error is described. Hindcast skill scores are evaluated computing anomaly correlation coefficients. The values of the scores are highly dependent on the variable, on the region and on the season considered. Scores are particularly low over Europe for all seasons, reaching their maximum during winter. The presence of occasional poor hindcasts affects the multi-model ensemble results substantially. In order to see whether or not the skill inconsistencies are linked to the model's inability to forecast the evolution of some particular patterns, hindcast skill scores are computed for the four large-scale patterns which explain most of the observed low-frequency variance over the Euro-Atlantic region, during winter. These scores are strongly dependent on the pattern. Multi-model hindcasts are better than the best single model hindcast only for those patterns for which the model biases cancel each other. In all cases, substantially better multi-model hindcast scores for all patterns can be obtained by combining the four model results using optimal weights, computed for each model and for each pattern with the technique suggested by Thompson. All results show no dependence on the ensemble size considered. Skill scores are finally computed for several indices, which measure the variability of selected weather regimes over Europe. Regimes scores are consistent with the scores obtained for the correspondent Euro-Atlantic EOF patterns, and it is shown that the removal of each model's systematic error from its hindcasts does not improve the final regime hindcast skill. Received: 5 February 1999 / Accepted: 14 December 1999     

The use of one-dimensional thermodynamic model for computing the level ice thickness and hummock freezing intensity in the Northern Caspian Sea

The results are analyzed of numerical experiments obtained using a one-dimensional thermodynamic model of the sea ice developed by the authors. The computations of the level-ice (fast-ice) evolution and ice hummock consolidation layer formation in different climatic situations (anomalously cold and anomalously warm winters) are carried out within the frameworks of the proposed model for the conditions being typical of the Northern Caspian Sea. The results of model computations are compared with the data of field researches carried out by the specialists of the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute in 2003–2008. A good correspondence is demonstrated between the model computations and expeditionary data. A conclusion is made on the prospectivity of using the model for design engineering.     

Spatial Response to Major Volcanic Events in or about AD 536, 934 and 1258: Frost Rings and Other Dendrochronological Evidence from Mongolia and Northern Siberia: Comment on R. B. Stothers, ‘Volcanic Dry Fogs, Climate Cooling, and Plague Pandemics in Europe and the Middle East’ (Climatic Change, 42, 1999)

Hypothesized large-scale climatic extremes require verification from distantregions in order toconfirm the magnitude and timing of such events. Three of the most massivehypothesized volcanic events of the past two millennia, occurring in or aboutAD 536, 934 and1258, had profound climatic and demographic repercussions over much of Europe,the MiddleEast, and other areas, according to historical accounts recently described inStothers (1998, 1999,2000) as well as other research. Here we report on frost ring and otherdendrochronologicalevidence derived from a 1738-year tree-ring chronology from Mongolia andmillennial-scaletree-ring data from northern Siberia which demonstrate that these three eventsmay have alsoimpacted conditions in these distant regions.     

Intraseasonal non-stationarity of the leading modes of atmospheric moisture over Europe during summer

A gridded monthly precipitable water (PW) data for 1979?C2007 from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis are used to investigate summertime interannual PW variability over Europe and its relation to the key climate parameters in the region. During summer season the first EOF mode of PW, explaining 27?C41% of its total variance, demonstrates significant month-to-month changes in its structure, thus, implying its essential non-stationarity. The second EOF mode of PW is also non-stationary during the summer season. In contrast to precipitation, both leading modes of PW are not associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), as well as with other regional teleconnections, suggesting relatively minor role of the atmospheric dynamics in atmospheric moisture variability over Europe during summer season. Analysis of links between leading EOF modes of regional PW and air temperature (AT) has revealed a strong link between PW and AT over Europe, persisting during entire summer season. Locally, these links imply that positive (negative) AT anomalies result in enhanced (decreased) PW over particular region. Revealed links between leading modes of PW and AT highlight important role of thermodynamics in summertime PW variability over Europe. Detected relatively weak and unstable links between leading modes of PW and precipitation over Europe were somewhat expected since in contrast to atmospheric moisture, regional precipitation variability is largely driven by the atmospheric dynamics (particularly, the NAO).     

菲律宾皮纳图博火山爆发的卫星探测分析

应用气象卫星的探测处理资料,揭示和探讨了1991年6月15日菲律宾皮纳图博火山爆发后火山灰和火山尘云的演变和漂移中的一些重要特征,为研究这次火山爆发对天气和气候的影响提供了卫星观测分析信息。     

Analysis of a regional model (EURAD) near surface gas concentration predictions using observations from networks

Summary The three-dimensional long-range transport model EURAD has been applied to two episodes in 1986 to study the transport and transformation of air pollutants over Europe under different meteorological conditions. The spring episode is characterized by varying meteorological conditions over Europe and transport of pollutants is complex. The summer episode is suitable to study the enhanced formation of photooxidants as an almost stagnant high pressure system over central Europe favoured the accumulation of pollutants. Available observations from several monitoring networks in Europe are used to evaluate the near surface concentration predictions of the model. This is possible for the sulfur species, O₃ and NO₂ for the central part of the modelling domain. It is shown that O₃ and NO₂ trends in the western part of the model domain are estimated reasonably well. The strong bias for underpredicting NO₂ in the eastern part of the domain reflects the quality of emission data for the two regions of the modelling area. Typically for regional scale Eulerian transport models when applied on larger grid sizes, EURAD overpredicts the observed minima and underpredicts the high observations. This is particularly true for O₃ but also detectable in the sulfate comparisons. Several sensitivity simulations for both episodes were performed to test numerical algorithms, parameterizations or emission data. Results from these simulations clearly show the important role of cloud related processes during the spring time for the sulfur species. Further testing and assessment of cloud parameterizations and emission data for transport models is anticipated.With 22 Figures     

土壤湿度影响中国夏季气候的数值试验

利用"全球土壤湿度计划第2阶段"提供的土壤湿度资料强迫区域气候模式RegCM3,通过数值试验讨论了土壤湿度对东亚夏季气候模拟效果的影响。结果表明,合理考虑土壤湿度的作用,能够提高区域气候模式对中国夏季降水和2 m气温的空间分布型及逐日变化的模拟效果;模拟结果与观测的相关分析显示,降水和2 m气温的年际变化都得到了有效改进,这种改进在气温上尤为明显。不过上述改进具有区域依赖性。数值试验结果表明,气温对土壤湿度的敏感性强于降水,这也从一个侧面说明提高降水模拟效果的难度。总体而言,合理的土壤湿度能够提高区域气候模式对中国夏季气候的模拟能力。因此,合理描述土壤湿度的变化,是提高中国夏季气候预报技巧的潜在途径之一。     

The Late Maunder Minimum (1675–1715) – A Key Period forStudying Decadal Scale Climatic Change in Europe

The Late Maunder Minimum (LMM, 1675–1715) denotes the climax of the `Little Ice Age' in Europe with marked climate variability. Investigations into interannual and interdecadal differences of atmospheric circulation between the LMM and the period 1961–1990 have been performedand undertaken based upon sea level pressure (SLP) difference maps, empiricalorthogonal function (EOF) analysis, and objective classification techniques. Since the SLP during the LMM winterwas significantly higher in northeastern Europe but below normal over the central and western Mediterranean, more frequent blocking situations were connected with cold air outbreaks towards central and eastern Europe. Springs were cold and characterized by a southward shift of the mid-latitude storm tracks. Summers in western, central Europe and northern Europe were wetter and slightly cooler than they are today due to a weakerAzores high and a more southerly position of the mean polar front axes. Autumns showed a significantly higher pressure over northern Europe and a lower pressure over continental Europe and the Mediterranean, an indication of an advanced change from summer to winter circulation. It is suggested that the pressure patterns during parts of the LMM might be attributed to the combination of external forcing factors (solar irradiance and volcanic activity) and internal oscillations and couplings in the North Atlantic.     

春季欧亚-北太平洋上空大气质量迁移规律及其对中国同期气候异常的可能影响

利用1979～2013年NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料及NOAA研究中心的CMAP（CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation）月平均降水资料,通过定义欧亚—北太平洋间大气质量迁移指数I_MAMEP,分析了春季欧亚—北太平洋上空大气质量迁移（MAMEP,Migration of Atmospheric Mass over Regions between Eurasia and North Pacific）的年际变化规律及其与同期中国气候异常的联系。结果表明:在北半球中高纬度存在一个纬向分布的欧亚—北太平洋遥相关型,且其可能对中国同期气候异常的形成具有重要影响。春季MAMEP指数具有显著的长期趋势,同时还具有2～4年及5～7年的振荡周期及明显的年代际变化特征。垂直环流和波动运动对欧亚—北太平洋间大气质量迁移具有重要作用。大气质量在欧亚西部低层异常辐合,高层异常辐散,在中、西太平洋地区低层异常辐散,高层异常辐合,在纬向上构成了顺时针的垂直环流圈,将西北太平洋地区的大气质量变动与欧亚大陆上空的变动联系了起来。另外,来自西欧大陆的波扰能量可传播至北太平洋,有利于这些区域上空位势高度异常扰动的维持。I_MAMEP与春季同期降水及地表气温异常关系密切。I_MAMEP为正时,东亚以北地区、鄂霍次克海西岸以及西欧沿岸降水显著减少,欧亚西部及我国华北地区降水显著增加。850 hPa上西伯利亚受反气旋式环流控制,太平洋上空受气旋式环流控制,引起欧亚大陆北部地表显著增温,西伯利亚以东、我国东北、华北—江淮地区及韩国、日本南部地表显著降温。西欧—我国西北部分地区大面积显著降温现象与这两个地区受异常反气旋东侧的偏北气流影响有关。这些结果有利于人们更深刻认识区域春季气候异常形成机理。