On intermediate-term prediction of strong earthquakes in the Himalayan arc region using pattern recognition algorithm M8

Seismicity of the Himalayan arc lying within the limits shown in figure 1 and covering the period 1964 to 1987 was scanned using M8 algorithm with a view to identifying the times of increased probabilities (TIPs) of the occurrence of earthquakes of magnitude greater than or equal to 7·0, during the period 1970 to 1987. In this period, TIPs occupy 18% of the space time considered. One of these precedes the only earthquake in this magnitude range which occurred during the period. Two numerical parameters used in the algorithm, namely the magnitude thresholds, had to be altered for the present study owing to incomplete data. Further monitoring of TIPs is however warranted, both for testing the predictive capability of this algorithm in the Himalayan region and for creating a base for the search of short-term precursors.     

Identification of a geological region for earthquakes using syntactic pattern recognition of seismograms

A relational database has been developed which permits the storage and retrieval of waveforms, together with essential parameters of events. The capability of the method is tested by applying it to broad-band records from the Geoscope Noumea station (New Caledonia).     

Probabilities of occurrence of great earthquakes in the Himalaya

Long-term conditional probabilities of occurrence of great earthquakes along the Himalaya plate boundary seismic zone have been estimated. The chance of occurrence of at least one great earthquake along this seismic zone over a period of 100 years (beginning the year 1999) is estimated to be about 0.89. The 100-year probability of such an earthquake occurring in the Kashmir seismic gap is about 0.27, in the central seismic gap about 0.52 and in the Assam gap about 0.21. The 25-year probabilities of their occurrence in these gaps are 0.07, 0.17, and 0.05 respectively. These probability estimates may be used profitably to assess the seismic hazard in the Himalaya and the adjoining Ganga plains.     

汰内井水氡年变异常与台湾地区强震的关系

通过对汰内井水氡多年年变动态的分析,发现台湾地区强震前后汰内井水氡测值表现出持续高值的异常,这些异常多为中期与中短期异常,有时也有短临异常和震后效应。研究结果表明,汰内井水氡对台湾地区的强震有一定的映震能力,可为台湾地区的强震预测服务。     

Geothermobarometry and development of inverted metamorphism in the Darjeeling-Sikkim region of the eastern Himalayan

ABSTRACT The Darjeeling-Sikkim region provides a classic example of inverted Himalayan metamorphism. The different parageneses of pelitic rocks containing chlorite, biotite, garnet, staurolite, kyanite, sillimanite, plagioclase and K-feldspar are documented by a variety of textures resulting from continuous and discontinuous reactions in the different zones. Microprobe data of coexisting minerals show that X_Mg varies in the order: garnet < staurolite < biotite < chlorite. White mica is a solid solution between muscovite and phengite. Garnet is mostly almandine-rich and shows normal growth zoning in the lower part of the Main Central Thrust (MCT) zone, and reverse zoning in the upper part of the zone. Chemographical relations and inferred reactions for different zones are portrayed in AFM space. In the low-grade zones oriented chlorites and micas and rolled garnets grew syntectonically, and were succeeded by cross-cutting chlorites and micas and garnet rims. In the upper zones sillimanite, kyanite and staurolite crystallized during a static inter-kinematic phase. P-T contitions of metamorphism, estimated through different models of geothermobarometry, are estimated to have been 580°c for the garnet zone to a maximum of 770°c for the sillimanite zone. The preferred values of pressure range from 5.0 kbar to 7.7 kbar. Models to explain the inverted metamorphism include overthrusting of a hot high Himalayan slab along a c. 5 km wide ductile MCT zone and the syn- or post-metamorphic folding of isograds.     

Stable isotope systematics of surface water bodies in the Himalayan and Trans-Himalayan (Kashmir) region

Stable hydrogen (δD) and oxygen (δ¹⁸O) isotope ratios of the headwaters of the Indus and its tributaries, surface ice in glaciers, saline and fresh water lakes and thermal springs in the Himalayan and Trans-Himalayan (Kashmir) region are reported. The δ5D-δ¹⁸ relationship for the river samples shows a slope of 9.12 +-0.29 which agrees well with the estimate of 8.99 ±0.33 based on a simple Rayleigh fractionation model. The unique signature of a higher deuterium excess (d) of the ‘Western Disturbance’ is preserved in these samples. An altitude effect of -0.9 per mil/km is observed in the δ¹⁸O of Indus waters. At a lower altitude (Beas) the altitude effect is almost double, indicating that the altitude effect decreases with elevation in this region.     

桂林附近陷落地震分布,形成及特征

隐落地震是石灰岩喀斯特区溶洞或上洞塌陷所引起的特殊类型的地震,在我国南方及西南喀斯特区域分布较为广泛,是一类低震级高烈度的地震,在震中区造成较大的震灾。本文以桂林附近喀斯特区为研究范围,从古往今来的地震记录中分析提炼出其分布、形成及特征。     

Tectonic implications of the earthquakes in the Indian subcontinent

The Bhuj earthquake (26 January 2001) in India and the Ghori earthquake (8 October 2005) in Pakistan, both occurred close to the Indian-Iranian plate boundary related to the activity along the intercontinental Chaman transform fault. It is suggested that the seismic activity along NNW — NNE trending weak zones or faults is more intense in the sub-continent than along the WNW trending zones. Since the stress along the former is less compressive but more of the shear or translational type. The devastative Koyna (1967) and Latur (1993) earthquakes both occurred along faults or weak zones that were close to the meridional rather than the equatorial trend. The Indian plate is moving to the north or NNE or NNW, along a rotational trajectory and hence the force tends to be more compressive along the equatorial weak zones. In contrast, it tends to be less compressive and more of the shear or translational along the weak zones that are close to meridional trend. The seismic activity is therefore more intense along the weak zones with NNW to NNE trend than along the ENE to EW trending zones.     

Stratigraphy of the Lesser Himalayan rocks in Kumaun

The geology of Kumaun Lesser Himalaya falls within three main tectonic units, viz the Almora Nappe, Inner Krol Nappe and the Outer Krol Nappe, and the three units comprising the entire succession occur in five distinct zones or belts. The stratigraphy of the area has been revised on the basis of the occurrences of chloritic horizons (spilites) and also the existence of an unconformity at the base of Loharkhet/Bageshwar/Ganai/Bhimtal Formation. This paper describes briefly the lithological and structural characters of the rocks of the five belts and the observations are synthesized to present an integrated picture of the regional stratigraphic framework for the metasediments lying between the Main Central Thrust and the Main Boundary Thrust/Fault which define the tectonic boundaries of the Lesser Himalaya in Kumaun.     

Modeling runoff and soil erosion in a catchment area, using the GIS, in the Himalayan region, India

Remote sensing data and GIS techniques have been used to compute runoff and soil erosion in the catchment area along the NH-1A between Udhampur and Kud covering an area of approximately 181 km². Different thematic layers, for example lithology, a landuse and landcover map, geomorphology, a slope map, and a soil-texture map, were generated from these input data. By use of the US Soil Conservation Service curve number method, estimated runoff potential was classified into five levels—very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Data integration was performed by use of the weighting rating technique, a conventional qualitative method, to give a runoff potential index value. The runoff potential index values were used to delineate the runoff potential zones, namely low, moderate, high, and very high. Annual spatial soil loss estimation was computed using the Morgan–Morgan–Finney mathematical model in conjunction with remote sensing data and GIS techniques. Greater soil erosion was found to occur in the northwestern part of the catchment area. When average soil loss from the catchment area was calculated it was found that a maximum average soil loss of more than 20 t ha⁻¹ occurred in 31 km² of the catchment area.     

珠峰地区热曲锂辉石伟晶岩的发现及对喜马拉雅稀有金属成矿作用研究的启示

目前研究已经显示,喜马拉雅淡色花岗岩具有良好的铍-铌钽-锂等稀有金属成矿潜力。其中珠穆朗玛峰（后文简称珠峰）西侧的普士拉一带,是喜马拉雅地区锂辉石伟晶岩集中的区域。本文报道在普士拉东北的珠峰北侧热曲地区,发现有含锂辉石伟晶岩脉,这些伟晶岩呈透镜体状集中赋存于肉切村群"黄带层"大理岩与北坳组钙质硅酸岩的接触界线部位,同围岩一起经历了强烈的变形,且未出现明显内部分带结构,矿物组成中包含锂辉石、透锂长石、绿柱石、铌钽铁矿、锡石等锂-铍-铌钽-锡稀有金属矿物,其Li2O含量达1.30%~2.15%,显示经历过高程度分异演化的岩浆结晶特征。热曲含锂辉石伟晶岩的发现表明珠峰地区具有锂成矿的良好前景,是未来锂矿产勘查的重点靶区,而藏南拆离系韧性剪切带中的肉切村群"黄带层"下部与北坳组顶部位置,是锂辉石伟晶岩的重要富集层位,值得今后在锂资源寻找过程中予以充分关注。     

喜马拉雅稀有金属成矿作用研究的新突破

喜马拉雅地区淡色花岗岩广泛分布,但相关的稀有金属成矿问题长期被学术界忽略,因为传统观点认为,这些花岗岩是高喜马拉雅变质岩系原地部分熔融而成。但自提出该地区淡色花岗岩高度结晶分异成因模式后,与这些花岗岩演化相关的稀有金属成矿问题引起各方重视,并在铍和铌钽的矿化研究方面取得显著进展。尽管如此,锂的成矿作用研究和资源寻找并没有取得大的突破。本期《岩石学报》报道的喜马拉雅中部琼嘉岗和热曲锂辉石伟晶岩及珠峰前进沟锂电气石-锂云母伟晶岩的发现,充分说明喜马拉雅地区锂资源前景广阔,表明喜马拉雅有望在近期内成为我国稀有金属资源的大型接替基地。根据目前的进展,喜马拉雅地区未来稀有金属成矿作用应加强如下方面的研究：1）加大区内淡色花岗岩岩石学与岩石成因研究力度,厘定它们岩浆结晶分异的程度与成矿潜力;2）对北喜马拉雅穹窿和岩体开展接触变质与围岩蚀变研究,以寻找热液交代型稀有金属矿床;3）加强高喜马拉雅地区藏南拆离系与花岗岩侵位关系的研究,以判断分异岩浆及成矿伟晶岩的赋存部位。近期应集中力量围绕普士拉一带的藏南拆离系、韧性变形的肉切村群地层和淡色花岗岩-伟晶岩等开展联合攻关研究,以期在锂资源上取得更大的突破。

     

喜马拉雅淡色花岗岩结晶分异机制概述

近年来,喜马拉雅淡色花岗岩的高分异成因得到了学术界的高度关注。另外,有调研工作发现,喜马拉雅淡色花岗岩具有良好的稀有金属成矿潜力,是未来矿产勘探的重点靶区。稀有金属元素的富集过程应与岩浆的结晶分异作用密切相关。但是,目前我们对喜马拉雅淡色花岗岩的岩浆分异演化过程缺乏深入的了解,因而也难以对其成矿效应进行有效评估。针对该问题,本文选择喜马拉雅带中两个颇具代表性的、明显发生稀有金属矿化现象的岩体（特提斯喜马拉雅带中的然巴淡色花岗岩和高喜马拉雅带中的告乌淡色花岗岩）开展系统野外地质、岩相学、矿物学、岩石学和地球化学调查研究,就喜马拉雅淡色花岗岩的结晶分异机制进行初步探讨。综合近年来有关花岗岩结晶分异作用的研究进展,我们认为喜马拉雅淡色花岗岩的结晶分异过程可以划分为原地结晶分异和岩浆侵位运移过程中流动分异两种主要机制,大部分的喜马拉雅淡色花岗岩应是两种机制共同作用的产物。

     

福建水口水库地区微震双差法重新定位

本文采用“双差地震定位法”重新定位了福建数字地震台网正式运行以来发生的水口库区附近的地震,结果表明,记录的地震分二个时段,分别发生于不同的小区域内1999年1月~12底,发生于N26.35°~N26.40°,E118.67°~E118.70°,约5×3km2范围内,震源深度集中在9~10km范围内,整个震源的分布为一近水平的南北展布,具有一定的构造地震特征;2000年初至2005年末,地震主要发生于N26.39°~N26.41°,E118.62°~E118.64°,约2×2km2范围内,震源深度约2~4km,由于记录的地震震级小、个数少、时间跨度大,认为应是浅表应力局部调整的结果。     

Five generations of monazite in Langtang gneisses: implications for chronology of the Himalayan metamorphic core

Monazite grains from Greater Himalayan Sequence gneisses, Langtang valley, Nepal, were chemically mapped and then dated in situ via Th–Pb ion‐microprobe analysis. Correlation of ages and chemistry reveals at least five different generations of monazite, ranging from c. 9 to >300 Ma. Petrological models of monazite chemistry provide a link between these generations and the thermal evolution of these rocks, yielding an age for the melting of Greater Himalayan rocks within the Main Central Thrust sheet (c. 16 Ma), and for the timing of thrust sheet emplacement that are younger than commonly viewed. Chemical characterization of monazite is vital prior to chronological microanalysis, and many ages previously reported for monazite from the Greater Himalayan Sequence are interpretationally ambiguous.     

Pathways to seismic hazard evaluation: Extreme and characteristic earthquakes in areas of low and high seismicity

The general philosophy of seismic hazard evaluation described here is appropriate for selection of seismic input to regional earthquake engineering codes prior to detailed on-site inspections and geotechnical assessments. Some probabilistic seismic hazard methodologies which can be applied in areas of low and high seismicity, are briefly described to emphasise the main equations with specimen results. Three aspects of hazard assessment are explored by different pathways. These include the analysis of regional earthquake catalogues to obtain magnitude recurrence, particularly using Gumbel extreme value statistics. This is extended to assess ground shaking hazard which is usually sought by earthquake engineers. Thirdly, the concept of earthquake perceptibility is developed, leading to the identification of an earthquake magnitude or type which is characteristic of a region. This most perceptible earthquake is most likely to be felt at any site in a region and provides an earthquake selection criterion which can be used in aseismic design of noncritical structures. Because there are several methods of seismic hazard evaluation, the view is expressed that it is sensible for practical purposes to seek results from different methods or different pathways to the hazard evaluation.Paper presented at the Commission of the European Communities' School on Earthquake Hazard Evaluation, Athens, and at the 21st General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, held in Sofia, 1988.Now at School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, University Plain, Norwich NR4 7TJ, U.K.     

A simulation of upper crustal stresses for great and moderate thrust earthquakes of the Himalaya

We assume that great and moderate Himalayan earthquakes occur through reactivation of subhorizontal thrust faults by frictional failure under the action of stresses induced by Himalayan topography, isostasy related buoyancy forces, crustal overburden and plate tectonic causes. Estimates of stresses are based on two dimensional plane strain calculations using analytical formulae of elasticity theory and rock mechanics under suitable simplifying assumptions. Considerable attention is focussed on a point on the detachment at a depth of 17 km below mean sea level under the surface trace of the Main Central Thrust (MCT). According to recent views, great Himalayan earthquakes should nucleate in the detachment in the vicinity of such a point. Also many moderate earthquakes occur on the detachment similarly under the MCT. Vertical and horizontal normal stresses of 622 and 262 MPa and a corresponding shear stress of 26 MPa are estimated for this point due to topography, buoyancy and overburden. For fault friction coefficient varying between 0.3 to 1.0, estimates of plate tectonic stress required are in the range of 386 to 434 MPa, when the cumulative principal stresses are oriented favourably for reactivation of the detachment. Estimates of shear stress mobilized at the same point would be from 27 to 32 MPa for the identical range of fault friction coefficient. Our calculations suggest that presence of pore water in the fault zones is essential for reactivation. Pore pressure required is between 535 to 595 MPa for friction coefficient in the range of 0.3 to 1.0 and it is less than lithostatic stress of 603 MPa at the above point. For the specific nominal value of 0.65 for fault friction coefficient, the estimated values of plate tectonic stress, shear stress and pore pressure at the above point on the detachment are 410 MPa, 30 MPa and 580 MPa respectively. Similar estimates are obtained also for shallower points on the detachment up to the southern limit of the Outer Himalaya. Our estimates of the plate tectonic stress, shear stress and pore pressure for reactivation of upper crustal thrust faults compare favourably with those quoted in the literature.