Role of Late Winter–Spring Wind Influencing Summer Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay

We examined the processes influencing summer hypoxia in the mainstem portion of Chesapeake Bay. The analysis was based on the Chesapeake Bay Monitoring Program data collected between 1985 and 2007. Self-organizing map (SOM) analysis indicates that bottom water dissolved oxygen (DO) starts to be depleted in the upper mesohaline area during late spring, and hypoxia expands down-estuary by early summer. The seasonal hypoxia in the bay appears to be related to multiple variables, (e.g., river discharge, nutrient loading, stratification, phytoplankton biomass, and wind condition), but most of them are intercorrelated. The winter–spring Susquehanna River flow contributes to not only spring–summer buoyancy effects on estuarine circulation dynamics but also nutrient loading from the land-promoting phytoplankton growth. In addition, we found that summer hypoxia is significantly correlated with the late winter–spring (February–April) northeasterly–southwesterly (NE–SW) wind. Based on winter–spring (January–May) conditions, a predictive tool was developed to forecast summer (June–August) hypoxia using river discharge and NE–SW wind. We hypothesized that the late winter–spring wind pattern may affect the transport of spring bloom biomass to the western shoal or the deep channel of the bay that either alleviates or increases the summer hypoxic volume in the midbay region, respectively. To examine this hypothesis, residual flow fields were analyzed using a hydrodynamic ocean model (Regional Ocean Modeling System; ROMS) between 2000 and 2003, two hydrologically similar years but years with different wind conditions during the spring bloom period. Simulation model results suggest that relatively larger amounts of organic matter could be transported into the deep channel in 2003 (severe hypoxia; frequent northeasterly wind) than 2000 (moderate hypoxia; frequent southwesterly wind).     

Long-Term Variability of Nutrients and Chlorophyll in the Chesapeake Bay: A Retrospective Analysis, 1985–2008

A retrospective analysis of freshwater discharge, riverine dissolved nutrient loads, dissolved nutrients, and chlorophyll in the Chesapeake Bay from 1985 to 2008 is presented. It is evident that each field displays an interannual variability averaged over the Bay. The N and P loads peaked in 1997 and have fluctuated with a decreasing trend since early 2004. Dissolved nutrient concentrations in the Bay appear to be largely controlled by riverine nutrient loads. The temporal variability of chlorophyll is positively correlated with nutrient loads and concentrations. Over the study period, N:P (DIN:DIP) molar ratios were consistently higher than the Redfield ratio (N:P?=?16:1) and strongly correlated with river discharge (R ²?=?0.68, p??16:1), and N is the limiting nutrient in summer and early autumn (N:P?4 from anoxic sediments. Long-term climate indices, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), appear to exert only a moderate control over the riverine discharge to the Bay or over the ecosystem response in terms of chlorophyll in the Bay. While not all related mechanisms can be inferred from available data, this analysis should help in determining future data needs for monitoring water quality and human and climate influence on the health of the Bay.     

Hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico: Does the science support the Plan to Reduce,Mitigate, and Control Hypoxia?

We update and reevaluate the scientific information on the distribution, history, and causes of continental shelf hypoxia that supports the 2001 Action Plan for Reducing, Mitigating, and Controlling Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force 2001), incorporating data, publications, and research results produced since the 1999 integrated assessment. The metric of mid-summer hypoxic area on the LouisianaTexas shelf is an adequate and suitable measure for continued efforts to reduce nutrients loads from the Mississippi River and hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico as outlined in the Action Plan. More frequent measurements of simple metrics (e.g., area and volume) from late spring through late summer would ensure that the metric is representative of the system in any given year and useful in a public discourse of conditions and causes. The long-term data on hypoxia, sources of nutrients, associated biological parameters, and paleoindicators continue to verify and strengthen the relationship between the nitratenitrogen load of the Mississippi River, the extent of hypoxia, and changes in the coastal ecosystem (eutrophication and worsening hypoxia). Multiple lines of evidence, some of them representing independent data sources, are consistent with the big picture pattern of increased eutrophication as a result of long-term nutrient increases that result in excess carbon production and accumulation and, ultimately, bottom water hypoxia. The additional findings arising since 1999 strengthen the science supporting the Action Plan that focuses on reducing nutrient loads, primarily nitrogen, through multiple actions to reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the northern Gulf of Mexico.     

Effect of nutrient loading on Atlantic menhaden (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Brevoortia tyrannus</Emphasis>) growth rate potential in the Patuxent River

We linked a 2-dimensional water quality model of the Patuxent River with a spatially-explicit model of fish growth to simulate how changes in land use in the Patuxent River Basin would affect the growth rate potential (GRP) of Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus). Simulations of three land-use patterns that reflected current nutrient loadings, increased nutrient loadings, and decreased nutrient loadings were used to drive the water quality model. Changes in nutrient loadings caused changes in the timing and intensity of phytoplankton concentrations and the region of hypoxia increased during summer with increased nutrient loading. The spatial distribution of menhaden GRP was highly correlated with phytoplankton concentrations and localized in the middle on third of the Patuxent River. Menhaden growth rate was highest in early June and late summer. During June, menhaden GRP (and phytoplankton concentration) was lowest at the lower nutrient loading simulation. During late summer, mean menhaden growth rates were inversely proportional to nutrient loading rates and menhaden grew best when nutrient loadings were the lowest. Upriver to mid-river phytoplankton patches drove overall mean calculations. Model results suggest that more research is needed on water quality model predictions of phytoplankton levels at a high level of spatial and temporal resolution, menhaden foraging, and menhaden habitat selection.     

Trends in indicators of eutrophication in Western Long Island Sound and the Hudson-Raritan Estuary

Significant improvements in water quality have been observed for several decades throughout much of the Hudson-Raritan Estuary, primarily as a result of regional abatement of municipal and industrial discharges. These improvements include area-wide, order-of-magnitude reductions in ambient coliform concentrations and significant increases in dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations. In contrast to these improvements, DO in bottom waters of the western Long Island Sound (WLIS) appears to have decreased in the last two decades. Although there is no consensus as to why hypoxia in WLIS may have recently become more severe, several related hypotheses have been suggested, including an increase in eutrophication, increased density stratification, and changes in wastewater loads. To determine if eutrophication has increased in WLIS, trends in several indicators of eutrophication were examined from a long-term water quality data set. Since the mid-1980s surface DO supersaturation has increased, bottom minimum DO has decreased, and vertical DO stratification has increased in WLIS. Other areas of the Hudson-Raritan Estuary, such as Jamaica Bay and Raritan Bay, exhibit similar evidence of declining water quality and may be experiencing increasing eutrophication. Temporal changes in vertical density stratification indicate that surface to bottom temperature differences have increased to a greater extent and have had a more significant impact on bottom DO depletion in WLIS than in the shallower Jamaica Bay and Raritan Bay. Additional factors contributing to the observed decline in water quality include recent changes in wastewater loads and possible increases in upstream and nonpoint source loads.     

A Biogeochemical View of Estuarine Eutrophication: Seasonal and Spatial Trends and Correlations in the Delaware Estuary

The Delaware River and Bay Estuary is one of the major urbanized estuaries of the world. The 100-km long tidal river portion of the estuary suffered from major summer hypoxia in the past due to municipal and industrial inputs in the urban region; the estuary has seen remarkable water quality improvements from recent municipal sewage treatment upgrades. However, the estuary still has extremely high nutrient loading, which appears to not have much adverse impact. Since the biogeochemistry of the estuary has been relatively similar for the past two decades, our multiple year research database is used in this review paper to address broad spatial and seasonal patterns of conditions in the tidal river and 120 km long saline bay. Dissolved oxygen concentrations show impact from allochthonous urban inputs and meteorological forcing as well as biological influences. Nutrient concentrations, although high, do not stimulate excessive algal biomass due to light and multiple nutrient element limitations. Since the bay does not have strong persistent summer stratification, there is little potential for bottom water hypoxia. Elevated chlorophyll concentrations do not exert much influence on light attenuation since resuspended bottom inorganic sediments dominate the turbidity. Dissolved inorganic carbon and dissolved and particulate organic carbon distributions show significant variability from watershed inputs and lesser impact from urban inputs and biological processes. Ratios of dissolved and particulate carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus help to understand watershed and urban inputs as well as autochthonous biological influences. Owing to the relatively simple geometry of the system and localized anthropogenic inputs as well as a broad spatial and seasonal database, it is possible to develop these biogeochemical trends and correlations for the Delaware Estuary. We suggest that this biogeochemical perspective allows a revised evaluation of estuarine eutrophication that should have generic value for understanding other estuarine and coastal waters.     

Hypoxic events in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, during the summer of 2001

Bottom water hypoxic events were observed in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island during the summer of 2001 using a towed sensor, vertical casts at fixed stations, and continuous monitoring buoys. This combination of approaches allowed for both extensive spatial and temporal sampling. Oxygen concentrations below the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) acute hypoxia criterion of 2.3 mg l^?1 were observed in the northern parts of Narragansett Bay, including the Providence River. We estimate 39% of the area of the Providence River was affected by acute hypoxia between July and September 2001. All other regions experienced only small areas of acute hypoxia (<5%), and no acute hypoxia was observed from Quonset Point south. The area encompassing oxygen concentrations below the EPA chronic hypoxia criterion of 4.8 mg l^?1 was much more extensive in the upper half of Narragansett Bay, sometimes covering the majority of the region, though it is unclear whether exposure to concentrations below this criterion persisted long enough to significantly affect marine species in these areas. Vertical profiles of dissolved oxygen typically exhibited a mid water oxygen minimum near the pycnocline, followed by a slight increase in oxygen with depth. The surface waters above the pycnocline were typically supersaturated with oxygen. The northern portions of the Bay where the most extensive hypoxia was observed corresponded to the regions with both the greatest thermohaline stratification, the highest nutrient inputs, and the highest primary productivity.     

Relationships Between Long-Term Trend of Satellite-Derived Chlorophyll-<Emphasis Type="Italic">a</Emphasis> and Hypoxia Off the Changjiang Estuary

The Changjiang Estuary is one of the largest estuaries in the world, where hypoxia frequently occurs during the summer season. Recent routine surveys in the observed area found that the low dissolved oxygen (DO) in the summer bottom water was not rapidly expanding with increasing nutrient loads in Changjiang diluted waters. Based on the remote sensing data and in situ data, we examined the historic seasonal hypoxia observations for the bottom waters of the Changjiang Estuary and investigated the short- and long-term effects that runoff had on variations in DO and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a). Our analysis indicated that the recent areal variation in hypoxia was due to the changing Chl-a distribution and stratification conditions. The correspondence between hypoxia and surface Chl-a concentration showed that remotely sensed Chl-a larger than 3.0 mg L^?1 was an essential condition for the formation of hypoxia off the Changjiang Estuary. The trend of Chl-a concentration was significantly impacted by the Three Gorges Dam (TGD), and the inter-annual variation of Chl-a was weakly affected by global-scale climate variability. After the TGD impoundment, the sediment loading in the Changjiang runoff and suspended sediments in Changjiang Estuary in August decreased, and the high Chl-a concentration moved landward. These shifted the hypoxia from its optimal forming conditions.     

Long-Term Changes in Water Quality and Productivity in the Patuxent River Estuary: 1985 to 2003

We conducted a quantitative assessment of estuarine ecosystem responses to reduced phosphorus and nitrogen loading from sewage treatment facilities and to variability in freshwater flow and nonpoint nutrient inputs to the Patuxent River estuary. We analyzed a 19-year dataset of water quality conditions, nutrient loading, and climatic forcing for three estuarine regions and also computed monthly rates of net production of dissolved O₂ and physical transport of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and phosphorus (DIP) using a salt- and water-balance model. Point-source loading of DIN and DIP to the estuary declined by 40–60% following upgrades to sewage treatment plants and correlated with parallel decreases in DIN and DIP concentrations throughout the Patuxent. Reduced point-source nutrient loading and concentration resulted in declines in phytoplankton chlorophyll-a (chl-a) and light-saturated carbon fixation, as well as in bottom-layer O₂ consumption for upper regions of the estuary. Despite significant reductions in seaward N transport from the middle to lower estuary, chl-a, turbidity, and surface-layer net O₂ production increased in the lower estuary, especially during summer. This degradation of water quality in the lower estuary appears to be linked to a trend of increasing net inputs of DIN into the estuary from Chesapeake Bay and to above-average river flow during the mid-1990s. In addition, increased abundance of Mnemiopsis leidyi significantly reduced copepod abundance during summer from 1990 to 2002, which favored increases in chl-a and allowed a shift in total N partitioning from DIN to particulate organic nitrogen. These analyses illustrate (1) the value of long-term monitoring data, (2) the need for regional scale nutrient management that includes integrated estuarine systems, and (3) the potential water quality impacts of altered coastal food webs.     

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Winter–Spring Oxygen Depletion in Chesapeake Bay Bottom Water

Although seasonal hypoxia is a well-studied phenomenon in many coastal systems, most previous studies have only focused on variability and controls on low-oxygen water masses during warm months when hypoxia is most extensive. Surprisingly, little attention has been given to investigations of what controls the development of hypoxic water in the months leading up to seasonal oxygen minima in temperate ecosystems. Thus, we investigated aspects of winter–spring oxygen depletion using a 25-year time series (1985–2009) by computing rates of water column O₂ depletion and the timing of hypoxia onset for bottom waters of Chesapeake Bay. On average, hypoxia (O₂ <62.5 μM) initiated in the northernmost region of the deep, central channel in early May and extended southward over ensuing months; however, the range of hypoxia onset dates spanned >50 days (April 6 to May 31 in the upper Bay). O₂ depletion rates were consistently highest in the upper Bay, and elevated Susquehanna River flow resulted in more rapid O₂ depletion and earlier hypoxia onset. Winter–spring chlorophyll a concentration in the bottom water was highly correlated with interannual variability in hypoxia onset dates and water column O₂ depletion rates in the upper and middle Bay, while stratification strength was a more significant driver in the timing of lower Bay hypoxia onset. Hypoxia started earlier in 2012 (April 6) than previously recorded, which may be related to unique climatic and biological conditions in the winter–spring of 2012, including the potential carryover of organic matter delivered to the system during a tropical storm in September 2011. In general, mid-to-late summer hypoxic volumes were not correlated to winter–spring O₂ depletion rates and onset, suggesting that the maintenance of summer hypoxia is controlled more by summer algal production and physical forcing than winter-spring processes. This study provides a novel synthesis of O₂ depletion rates and hypoxia onset dates for Chesapeake Bay, revealing controls on the phenology of hypoxia development in this estuary.     

External nutrient sources,internal nutrient pools,and phytoplankton production in Chesapeake Bay

External nutrient loadings, internal nutrient pools, and phytoplankton production were examined for three major subsystems of the Chesapeake Bay Estuary—the upper Mainstem, the Patuxent Estuary, and the 01 Potomac Estuary—during 1985–1989. The atomic nitrogen to phosphorus ratios (TN:TP) of total loads to the 01 Mainstem, Patuxent, and the Potomac were 51, 29 and 35, respectively. Most of these loads entered at the head of the estuaries from riverine sources and major wastewater treatment plants. Approximately 7–16% for the nitrogen load entered the head of each estuary as particulate matter in contrast to 48–69% for phosphorus. This difference is hypothesized to favor a greater loss of phosphorus than nitrogen through sedimentation and burial. This process could be important in driving estuarine nitrogen to phosphorus ratios above those of inputs. Water column TN: TP ratios in the tidal fresh, oligohaline, and mesohaline salinity zones of each estuary ranged from 56 to 82 in the Mainstem, 27 to 48 in the Patuxent, and 72 to 126 in the Potomac. A major storm event in the Potomac watershed was shown to greatly increase the particulate fraction of nitrogen and phosphorus and lower the TN:TP in the river-borne loads. The load during the month that contained this storm (November 1985) accounted for 11% of the nitrogen and 31% of the phosphorus that was delivered to the estuary by the Potomac River during the entire 60-month period examined here. Within the Mainstem estuary, salinity dilution plots revealed strong net sources of ammonium and phosphate in the oligohaline to upper mesohaline region, indicating that these areas were sites of considerable internal recycling of nutrients to surface waters. The sedimentation of particulate nutrient loads in the upper reaches of the estuary is probably a major source of these recycled nutrients. A net sink of nitrate was indicated during summer. A combination of inputs and these internal recycling processes caused dissolved inorganic N to P ratios to approach 16:1 in the mesohaline zone of the Mainstem during late summer; this ratio was much higher at other times and in the lower salinity zones. Phytoplankton biomass in the mesohaline Mainstem reached a peak in spring and was relatively constant throughout the other seasons. Productivity was highest in spring and summer, accounting for approximately 33% and 44%, respectively, of the total annual productivity in this region. In the Patuxent and Potomac, the TN:TP ratios of external loads documented here are 2–4 times higher than those observed over the previous two decades. These changes are attributed to point-source phosphorus controls and the likelihood that nitrogen-rich nonpoint source inputs, including contributions from the atmosphere, have increased. These higher N:P ratios relative to Redfield proportions (16:1) now suggest a greater overall potential for phosphorus-limitation rather than nitrogen-limitation of phytoplankton in the areas studied.     

Nutrient enrichments and phytoplankton growth in the surface waters of the Louisiana Bight

Nitrate concentrations have increased twofold in the Mississippi River during the past three decades. The increased nitrogen loading to the Louisiana shelf has been postulated as a factor leading to eutrophication and the subsequent development of hypoxia west of the Mississippi River delta. While ratios of nitrogen:phosphorus and nitrogen:silica are relatively high in surface waters on the western Louisiana shelf, nitrogen has been posed as the ‘limiting’ nutrient in this region. Bioassays were performed with nutrient additions to surface waters collected from the Louisiana shelf to examine the potential for specific nutrient limitation. Experiments were conducted in March and September 1991, and May 1992. The growth responses of natural and cultured phytoplankton populations were determined by measuring the time course of in vivo and 3-(3,4 dichlorophenyl)-1, 1-dimethylurea (DCMU)-induced fluorescence, as well as initial and final chlorophylla concentrations. The results suggest that phosphate and silicate potentially limit phytoplankton growth during the winter-spring, particularly at low salinities. In late summer, in contrast, nitrogen limitation may be prominent at higher salinities.     

Long-Term Trends in Submersed Aquatic Vegetation (SAV) in Chesapeake Bay, USA, Related to Water Quality

Chesapeake Bay supports a diverse assemblage of marine and freshwater species of submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) whose broad distributions are generally constrained by salinity. An annual aerial SAV monitoring program and a bi-monthly to monthly water quality monitoring program have been conducted throughout Chesapeake Bay since 1984. We performed an analysis of SAV abundance and up to 22 environmental variables potentially influencing SAV growth and abundance (1984–2006). Historically, SAV abundance has changed dramatically in Chesapeake Bay, and since 1984, when SAV abundance was at historic low levels, SAV has exhibited complex changes including long-term (decadal) increases and decreases, as well as some large, single-year changes. Chesapeake Bay SAV was grouped into three broad-scale community-types based on salinity regime, each with their own distinct group of species, and detailed analyses were conducted on these three community-types as well as on seven distinct case-study areas spanning the three salinity regimes. Different trends in SAV abundance were evident in the different salinity regimes. SAV abundance has (a) continually increased in the low-salinity region; (b) increased initially in the medium-salinity region, followed by fluctuating abundances; and (c) increased initially in the high-salinity region, followed by a subsequent decline. In all areas, consistent negative correlations between measures of SAV abundance and nitrogen loads or concentrations suggest that meadows are responsive to changes in inputs of nitrogen. For smaller case-study areas, different trends in SAV abundance were also noted including correlations to water clarity in high-salinity case-study areas, but nitrogen was highly correlated in all areas. Current maximum SAV coverage for almost all areas remain below restoration targets, indicating that SAV abundance and associated ecosystem services are currently limited by continued poor water quality, and specifically high nutrient concentrations, within Chesapeake Bay. The nutrient reductions noted in some tributaries, which were highly correlated to increases in SAV abundance, suggest management activities have already contributed to SAV increases in some areas, but the strong negative correlation throughout the Chesapeake Bay between nitrogen and SAV abundance also suggests that further nutrient reductions will be necessary for SAV to attain or exceed restoration targets throughout the bay.     

Exchange of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Between a Shallow Lagoon and Coastal Waters

West Falmouth Harbor, a shallow lagoon on Cape Cod, has experienced a threefold increase in nitrogen load since the mid- to late 1990s due to input from a groundwater plume contaminated by a municipal wastewater treatment plant. We measured the exchange of nitrogen and phosphorus between the harbor and the coastal waters of Buzzards Bay over several years when the harbor was experiencing this elevated nitrogen load. During summer months, the harbor not only retained the entire watershed nitrogen load but also had a net import of nitrogen from Buzzards Bay. During the spring and fall, the harbor had a net export of nitrogen to Buzzards Bay. We did not measure the export in winter, but assuming the winter net export was less than 112 % of the load, the harbor exported less than half of the watershed nitrogen load on an annual basis. For phosphorus, the harbor had a net import from coastal waters in the spring and summer months and a net export in the fall. Despite the large increase in nitrogen load to the harbor, the summertime import of phosphorus from Buzzards Bay was sufficient to maintain nitrogen limitation of primary productivity during the summer. Our findings illustrate that shallow systems dominated by benthic producers have the potential to retain large terrestrial nitrogen loads when there is sufficient supply of phosphorus from exchange with coastal waters.     

Nutrient inputs to the Choptank River estuary: Implications for watershed management

Degraded water quality due to water column availability of nitrogen and phosphorus to algal species has been identified as the primary cause of the decline of submersed aquatic vegetation in Chesapeake Bay and its subestuaries. Determining the relative impacts of various nutrient delivery pathways on estuarine water quality is critical for developing effective strategies for reducing anthropogenic nutrient inputs to estuarine waters. This study investigated temporal and spatial patterns of nutrient inputs along an 80-km transect in the Choptank River, a coastal plain tributary and subestuary of Chesapeake Bay, from 1986 through 1991. The study period encompassed a wide range in freshwater discharge conditions that resulted in major changes in estuarine water quality. Watershed nitrogen loads to the Choptank River estuary are dominated by diffuse-source inputs, and are highly correlated to freshwater discharge volume. in years of below-average freshwater discharge, reduced nitrogen availability results in improved water quality throughout most of the Choptank River. Diffuse-source inputs are highly enriched in nitrogen relative to phosphorus, but point-source inputs of phosphorus from sewage treatment plants in the upper estuary reduce this imbalance, particularly during summer periods of low freshwater discharge. Diffuse-source nitrogen inputs result primarily from the discharge of groundwater contaminated by nitrate. Contamination is attributable to agricultural practices in the drainage basin where agricultural land use predominates. Groundwater discharge provides base flow to perennial streams in the upper regions of the watershed and seeps directly into tidal waters. Diffuse-source phosphorus inputs are highly episodic, occurring primarily via overland flow during storm events. Major reductions in diffuse-source nitrogen inputs under current landuse conditions will require modification of agricultural practices in the drainage basin to reduce entry rates of nitrate into shallow groundwater. Rates of subsurface nitrate delivery to tidal waters are generally lower from poorly-drained versus well-drained regions of the watershed, suggesting greater potential reductions of diffuse-source nitrogen loads per unit effort in the well-drained region of the watershed. Reductions in diffuse-source phosphorus loads will require long-term management of phosphorus levels in upper soil horizons. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A01BY074 00021     

Fertilization Effects on Elevation Change and Belowground Carbon Balance in a Long Island Sound Tidal Marsh

We report the results of a 5-year fertilization experiment in a central Long Island Sound salt marsh, aimed at understanding the impacts of high nutrient loads on marsh elevational processes. Fertilization with nitrogen led to some significant changes in marsh processes, specifically increases in aboveground primary production and in CO₂ fluxes from the soil. However, neither nitrogen nor phosphorus fertilization led to elevation loss (relative to controls), reduced soil carbon, or a decrease in belowground primary production, all of which have been proposed as links between elevated nutrient loads and marsh drowning. Our data suggest that high nutrient levels increase gross carbon loss from the sediment, but that this is compensated for by other processes, leading to no net deleterious effect of nutrient loading on carbon storage or on marsh stability with respect to sea level rise.     

Characterization of nutrient, organic carbon, and sediment loads and concentrations from the Mississippi River into the northern Gulf of Mexico

We synthesize and update the science supporting the Action Plan for Reducing, Mitigating, and Controlling Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force 2001) with a focus on the spatial and temporal discharge and patterns of nutrient and organic carbon delivery to the northern Gulf of Mexico, including data through 2006. The discharge of the Mississippi River watershed over 200 years varies but is not demonstrably increasing or decreasing. About 30% of the Mississippi River was shunted westward to form the Atchafalaya River, which redistributed water and nutrient loads on the shelf. Data on nitrogen concentrations from the early 1900s demonstrate that the seasonal and annual concentrations in the lower river have increased considerably since then, including a higher spring loading, following the increase in fertilizer applications after World WarII. The loading of total nitrogen (TN) fell from 1990 to 2006, but the loading of total phosphorus (TP) has risen slightly, resulting in a decline in the TN:TP ratios. The present TN:TP ratios hover around an average indicative of potential nitrogen limitation on phytoplankton growth, or balanced growth limitation, but not phosphorus limitation. The dissolved nitrogen:dissolved silicate ratios are near the Redfield ratio indicative of growth limitations on diatoms. Although nutrient concentrations are relatively high compared to those in many other large rivers, the water quality in the Mississippi River is not unique in that nutrient loads can be described by a variety of land-use models. There is no net removal of nitrogen from water flowing through the Atchafalaya basin, but the concentrations of TP and suspended sediments are lower at the exit point (Morgan City, Louisiana) than in the water entering the Atchafalaya basin. The removal of nutrients entering offshore waters through diversion of river water into wetlands is presently less than 1% of the total loadings going directly offshore, and would be less than 8% if the 10,093 km² of coastal wetlands were successfully engineered for that purpose. Wetland loss is an insignificant contribution to the carbon loading offshore, compared to in situ marine production. The science-based conclusions in the Action Plan about nutrient loads and sources to the hypoxic zone off Louisiana are sustained by research and monitoring occurring in the subsequent 10 years.     

The Relative Role of Nutrients, Grazing, and Predation as Controls on Macroalgal Growth in the Waquoit Bay Estuarine System

Understanding whether nutrient availability and grazing by consumers can control macroalgal growth is important to mitigate blooms. To assess the effect of long-term nitrogen loading on macroalgae, we ran a field experiment in which we measured growth of green and red macroalgae in estuaries where loads and eutrophication status differed. The relative abundances of consumers differed among estuaries with more grazers in non-eutrophied estuaries, an important interaction of bottom-up and top-down controls. In the estuary with the lowest nitrogen load, grazers controlled green macroalgal growth, but in higher nitrogen-loaded estuaries, where grazing was lower, growth of green macroalgae overwhelmed potential grazer control. The red macroalga was not controlled by grazers, even in the estuary where grazing pressure was highest. In the low-loaded estuary, invertebrate predators exerted top-down control over grazers, but predation effects did not cascade to macroalgae. Bottom-up mechanisms dominated control of macroalgae through an interaction of direct stimulation of growth and indirect alteration of consumer abundances, and thus, long-term nutrient regimes are likely determining potential for bloom formation in Waquoit Bay.     

Relative importance of grazing and nutrient controls of macroalgal biomass in three temperate shallow estuaries

Macroalgal biomass and competitive interactions among primary producers in coastal ecosystems may be controlled by bottom-up processes such as nutrient supply and top-down processes such as grazing, as well as other environmental factors. To determine the relative importance of bottom-up and top-down processes under different nutrient loading conditions, we estimated potential amphipod and isopod grazer impact on a dominant macroalgal species in three estuaries in Waquoit Bay, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, that are subject to different nitrogen loading rates. We calculated growth increases and grazing losses in each estuary based on monthly benthic survey data of macrophyte biomass and herbivore abundance, field grazing rates of amphipods (Microdeutopus gryllotalpa andCymadusa compta) and an isopod (Idotea baltica) on the preferred and most abundant macroalga (Cladophora vagabunda) and laboratory grazing rates for the remaining species, and in situ macroalgal growth rates. As nitrogen loading rates increased, macroalgal biomass increased (3×), eelgrass (Zostera marina) was lost, and herbivore abundance decreased (1/4×). Grazing rates increased with relative size of grazer (I. baltica > C. compta > M. gryllotalpa) and, for two of the three species investigated, were faster on algae from the high-nitrogen estuary in comparison to the low-nitrogen estuary, paralleting the increased macroalgal tissue percent nitrogen with nitrogen load. Macroalgal growth rates increased (2×) with increasing nitrogen loading rate. The comparison between estimated growth increases versus losses ofC. vagabunda biomass to grazing suggested first, that grazers could lower macroalgal biomass in midsummer, but only in estuaries subject to lower nitrogen loads. Second, the impact of grazing decreased as nitrogen loading rate increased as a result of the increased macroalgal growth rates and biomass, plus the diminished abundance of grazers. This study suggests the relative impact of top-down and bottom-up controls on primary producers varies depending on rate of nitrogen loading, and specifically, that the impact of herbivory on macroalgal biomass decreases with increasing nitrogen load to estuaries.     

Late Quaternary record of Indian summer monsoon-induced stratification and productivity collapse in the Andaman Sea

During each summer monsoon, the northeastern Indian Ocean receives a huge amount of rain and river discharge, resulting in strong stratification and prevalence of oligotrophic conditions. These water column changes impact upper ocean productivity which is reflected in the planktonic foraminifera distribution, providing an opportunity to study the effect of monsoon forcing and stratification history. Analogous to modern-day stratification, very intense water column stratification and productivity collapse were observed associated with Indian summer monsoon (ISM) evolution. This paper reports significant stratification events during MIS 3 (37.0 to 33 and 27 to 24 cal ka), Bølling/Allerød (B/A), early Holocene (10.0 to 8.0 cal ka) and mid-Holocene (7.0 to 5.0 cal ka) which slowly muted upwelling and productivity. The deglacial intensification of the ISM started in the early stages of the Bølling/Allerød (B/A) followed by slight weakening during the Younger Dryas and regained strength during the early Holocene, coinciding with the highest summer insolation at 30°N. A progressive decline in the abundances of productivity and salinity proxies from 4.2 to 2.0 cal ka suggests a gradual weakening of the ISM. The late Quaternary productivity variations in the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea are primarily controlled by salinity-related stratification.