白利雅盆地构造地貌解析及鲜水河断裂北西段水平滑移速率

白利雅盆地位于青藏高原东部,鲜水河断裂带北西段炉霍活断层与达曲活断层的斜接部位.通过野外实际考查,结合Google Earth地图发现白利雅盆地发育一系列的构造地貌:断层三角面、坡中槽、断错阶地、废弃河道、裂陷湖和阶地面变形.盆地发育的4级阶地是构造成因.废弃河道是新的断裂活动形成的新冲沟、新河道——达曲,其快速下切,废弃老河道,形成狭长的‘U’型沟谷.鲜水河断裂的北西段炉霍活断层切过T3河流阶地,说明其(白利雅以北)是在大约14.92kaB.P.以后形成的,可能预示着构造应力场的变化和白利雅盆地形成.对盆地4级阶地(T1,T2,T3和T4)的河流沉积物光释光(OSL)测年结果分别是1.06±0.06kaB.P.,1.83±0.06kaB.P.,14.92±0.76kaB.P.和42.48±2.35kaB.P,代表了相应阶地的沉积年龄.这些结果与阶地前缘陡坎断错的距离计算显示,从42.48kaB.P.和14.92kaB.P.以来,断层走向平均移动速率分别为3.73mm/a和0.85mm/a,显示从中更新世晚期以来,鲜水河断裂带炉霍活断层水平滑移有减慢的趋势.在42.48 ～ 14.92kaB.P.,14.92～1.83kaB.P.和1.83 ～ 1.06kaB.P.,相邻阶地垂向隆升或河流下切的速率分别为0.14mm/a(T4～T3),4.66mm/a(T3 ～ T2)和5.19mm/a(T2～ T1),显示从中更新世晚期以来,阶地垂直隆升或河流下切有加快的趋势.     

西藏纳木错盆地116ka以来沉积演化与青藏高原隆升

根据湖相或湖滨相沉积的铀系等时线年龄测定结果,116kaB.P.以来,在西藏纳木错沿岸,发育了拔湖48m以下的6级湖岸阶地和拔湖48m以上,最高至139.2m的高位湖相沉积.可划分出3个沉积相组合,其演化可划分为4个阶段:①116~72kaB.P.,为深湖环境,古湖面拔湖高于现今纳木错140~48m;②72~37kaB.P.,为半深湖环境,拔湖为48~26m;③37~30kaB.P.,为浅湖环境,拔湖26~19m;④30kaB.P.以来,湖水逐渐变浅,拔湖<19m.纳木错盆地沉积与青藏高原隆升响应关系,揭示出高原自116kaB.P.以来先后经历了稳定期、持续逐步较快隆升期(116~37kaB.P.)、急剧强烈阶段性隆升期(37~30kaB.P.)和较稳定期(30kaB.P.以来).青藏高原的隆升是一个多阶段、不等速和非均变的复杂过程.      

高精度热电离质谱（TIMS）铀系法测定洞穴沉积物的年龄

应用高精度质谱技术通过测定铀系标样和洞穴钙质结层的年龄，初步建立了TIMS铀系测年方法。3个样品的测定结果复现性很好，U含量、同位素比值及年龄值均与标准值吻合，数据的精度提高数倍，显示了TIMS铀系法的优点。     

COSMOGENIC ISOTOPES DATING OF QUATERNARY GLACIAL ACTIVITY OF THE PALEAO-DAOCHENG ICE CAPE,ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE QINGHAI-XIZANG PLATEAU

通常认为青藏高原东南部第四纪曾发育过一个冰帽——稻城冰帽,然而关于这个冰帽发育的年代和变化的过程,还缺乏足够的年代数据的支撑.本文选自稻城第四纪古冰帽南缘雄古附近的冰碛垄、冰碛台地、羊背石和冰川漂砾进行了宇生核素10Be和26Al暴露年代测定.结果显示,稻城古冰帽南缘至少发生过5次冰川前进事件,每次冰川前进到达最大规模的时间分别为19.0±0.7 ～ 19.8±0.7kaB.P.,25.8±0.6～27.4±0.7kaB.P.,52.5±0.9～59.6±1.1kaB.P.,162.2±2.7 ～287.4±9.9kaB.P.和大于480.2±2.2kaB.P..根据年龄数据以及空间位置关系的分析,稻城古冰帽很可能形成于约800～ 600kaB.P.之间,此后冰川的规模呈现出随着时间不断缩小的趋势,可能与该区气候的变干有关.MIS 3的冰川规模比MIS 2大,可能与MIS 3时期气候比MIS 2相对湿润有关.     

西藏纳木错晚更新世以来湖面变化和藏北高原古大湖的演化

根据西藏纳木错及邻区发现的多处湖岸阶地和高位湖相沉积,确定了藏北高原古大湖的存在.水准测量表明,在纳木错沿岸发育了6级湖岸阶地,以及拔湖48～139.2m的高位湖相沉积;在拔湖26m以下,发育有8～30条湖岸堤;一条明显的湖蚀凹槽则集中出现在拔湖17.5～19.8m的高度上,与纳木错和仁错的分水垭口的高度相当.纳木错沿岸和邻区湖相或湖滨相沉积物的铀系年龄测定表明,高位湖相沉积形成于115.9～71.8 kaB.P.的晚更新世早期;第6至第2级阶地形成于53.7～28.2 kaB.P的晚更新世中晚期;与湖蚀凹槽相当的湖滨相沉积则稍早于29.3 kaB.P.;第2至第1级阶地,14C测定结果为2350～10390 aB.P..     

贵州都匀七星洞石笋剖面晚更新世高分辨率的气候地层学

通过对贵州都匀七星洞4根石笋42件系统的TIMS²³⁰Th测年及694件稳定同位素分析,揭示的气候变化记录时限范围连续1～15万年,稳定同位素样品平均分辨率晚期达150～220a,早期达440～530a。研究表明,石笋^δ18O曲线,相当于海洋记录的终止点Ⅰ及终止点Ⅱ具有特别明显的突变,其年龄分别为11.3kaB.P.及129.3kaB.P.,应为晚更新世顶、底界线的准确年代。晚更新世与深海氧同位素记录MIS2～MIS5e相对应的气候地层单元,其界限年代也分别得到了明确的界定。相当于格陵兰冰芯记录、北大西洋沉积记录的YD事件、Heinrich气候突变事件,几个石笋记录取得了一致的准确定位及定年。其中YD事件为12.76～11.52kaB.P.;Heinrich事件的H1～H6分别为17～15kaB.P.,24.6kaB.P.,30.5kaB.P.,39.3kaB.P.,47.8～46.8kaB.P.以及60.4kaB.P.。对其与北大西洋沉积及格陵兰冰芯记录所揭示的短尺度气候突变事件的可比性,表明东亚季风气候变化,与高纬度地区的气候变化呈遥相关响应,对研究东亚季风气候驱动机制及其与全球气候变化的响应关系和对晚更新世的地层学研究,均具有特别重要的意义。     

西藏纳木错晚更新世以来湖面变化和藏北高原古大湖的演化

根据西藏纳木错及邻区发现的多处湖岸阶地和高位湖相沉积,确定了藏北高原古大湖的存在。水准测量表明,在纳木错沿岸发育了6级湖岸阶地,以及拔湖48～139.2m的高位湖相沉积;在拔湖26m以下,发育有8～30条湖岸堤;一条明显的湖蚀凹槽则集中出现在拔湖17.5～19.8m的高度上,与纳木错和仁错的分水垭口的高度相当。纳木错沿岸和邻区湖相或湖滨相沉积物的铀系年龄测定表明,高位湖相沉积形成于115.9～71.8kaB.P.的晚更新世早期;第6至第2级阶地形成于53.7～28.2kaB.P.的晚更新世中晚期;与湖蚀凹槽相当的湖滨相沉积则稍早于29.3kaB.P.;第2至第1级阶地,14C测定结果为2350～10390aB.P.。     

青海格尔木三岔河组年龄测定与昆仑古湖发育

文章主要研究和讨论青海省格尔木市昆仑河第五级阶地的三岔河组河湖相沉积,特别是其上部的一套典型的湖相沉积。根据野牛沟和纳赤台西北两剖面三岔河组沉积样品的ESR和U系法年龄测定结果,三岔河组堆积于约355～95kaB.P.间,而被称为昆仑古湖的湖相沉积大致开始于约 200～160kaB.P.（ESR）或约150kaB.P.（U系）,结束于约 150～120kaB.P.（ESR）或约95kaB.P.（U系）左右,其中深湖时期约为190kaB.P.（ESR）或约110～100kaB.P.（U系）左右。此外,纳赤台东北昆仑河第三级阶地剖面上部的湖相沉积,则是约90(ESR)/72～25kaB.P.（U系）的末次冰期期间形成,可称为纳赤台古湖。根据昆仑古湖湖相沉积地层中的沉积构造和所发现的介形类化石,讨论了湖泊的沉积环境;根据区域对比,认为三岔河组发育于约355～95kaB.P.,而其中约120～95kaB.P.的末次间冰期的早中期则是昆仑古湖的发育时期与青藏高原的羌塘东湖等古大湖发育早期的最高湖面时期,而40～30kaB.P.的MIS3的后半段只是这些大湖分解过程中的一个阶段。     

西藏纳木错晚更新世以来湖面变化和藏北高原古大湖的演化

根据西藏纳木错及邻区发现的多处湖岸阶地和高位湖相沉积,确定了藏北高原古大湖的存在。水准测量表明,在纳木错沿岸发育了6级湖岸阶地,以及拔湖48～139．2m的高位湖相沉积;在拔湖26m以下,发育有8～30条湖岸堤;一条明显的湖蚀凹槽则集中出现在拔湖17．5～19．8m的高度上,与纳木错和仁错的分水垭口的高度相当。纳木错沿岸和邻区湖相或湖滨相沉积物的铀系年龄测定表明,高位湖相沉积形成于115．9～71．8kaB．P．的晚更新世早期;第6至第2级阶地形成于53．7～28．2kaB．P．的晚更新世中晚期;与湖蚀凹槽相当的湖滨相沉积则稍早于293kaB．P．;第2至第1级阶地,^14C测定结果为2350-10390aB．P．。     

楼兰佛塔剖面10.84kaB.P.以来的环境变迁

新疆楼兰佛塔剖面(40°30.980'N,89°54.849'E)深度6m,以5cm间距采样,共采121个样,进行了粒度、总碳、无机碳、有机碳、氮含量分析,根据光释光年龄结果内插得出剖面时间跨度为10.84～4.69kaB.P.,剖面气候环境可划分为3个阶段:10.84～10.13kaB.P.为高湖面湿润时期;10.13～7.45kaB.P.沉积间断,气候干旱;7.45～4.69kaB.P.罗布泊气候相对湿润,其间湖泊存在多次的收缩与扩张,湖面扩张是短时间快速完成的,湖面衰退是逐渐变化的.楼兰佛塔剖面顶部年龄为4.69kaB.P.,此区发现的石器基本为地表采集,年代不会早于4.69kaB.P..     

The Last Interglacial sea level change: new evidence from the Abrolhos islands,West Australia

U-series ages measured by thermal ionisation mass spectrometry (TIMS) are reported for a Last Interglacial (LI) fossil coral core from the Turtle Bay, Houtman Abrolhos islands, western Australia. The core is 33.4 m long the top of which is approximately 5 m a.p.s.l. (above present sea level). From the²³²Th concentrations and the reliability of the U-series ages, two sections in the core can be distinguished. Calculated U/Th ages in core section I (3.3 m a.p.s.l to 11 m b.p.s.l) vary between 124±1.7 ka BP (3.3 m a.p.s.l.) and 132.5±1.8 ka (4 m b.p.s.l., i.e. below present sea level), and those of section II (11–23 m b.p.s.l.) between 140±3 and 214±5 ka BP, respectively. The ages of core section I are in almost perfect chronological order, whereas for section II no clear age-depth relationship of the samples can be recognised. Further assessments based on the ϖ²³⁴U_(T) criteria reveal that none of the samples of core section II give reliable ages, whereas for core section I several samples can be considered to be moderately reliable within 2 ka. The data of the Turtle Bay core complement and extend our previous work from the Houtman Abrolhos showing that the sea level reached a height of approximately 4 m b.p.s.l at approximately 134 ka BP and a sea level highstand of at least 3.3 m a.p.s.l. at approximately 124 ka BP. Sea level dropped below its present position at approximately 116 ka BP. Although the new data are in general accord with the Milankovitch theory of climate change, a detailed comparison reveals considerable differences between the Holocene and LI sea level rise as monitored relative to the Houtman Abrolhos islands. These observation apparently add further evidence to the growing set of data that the LI sea level rise started earlier than recognised by SPECMAP chronology. A reconciliation of these contradictionary observations following the line of arguments presented by Crowley (1994) are discussed with respect to the Milankovitch theory.     

腾冲、长白山年轻火山岩铀系不平衡热电离质谱法年代学研究

在国内首次建立了铀系不平衡热电离质谱法年轻火山岩年龄测定的试验流程,并研究了云南腾冲、吉林长白山天池火山岩的年龄。划分出腾冲晚更新世以来的5个喷发期次：220 ka、80 ka、20 ka、12.8~13 ka、0.75~0.79 ka和长白山天池全新世以来的3次喷发：5.3 ka、1.0 ka、0.75 ka。这些年龄值和其他的方法所得的结果基本一致,表明本方法的可靠性。此外,还介绍了铀系不平衡法火山岩年代学的基本原理,讨论了样品的封闭性、火山岩中钍同位素初始组成均一性等问题。     

Further evidence for a relatively high sea level during the penultimate interglacial: open-system U-series ages from La Marina (Alicante,East Spain)

The elevation and timing of high sea stands during Oxygen Isotope Stage (OIS) 7 are not as well constrained as those of OIS 5e. Conflicting values are reported from Mediterranean coastlines, and fossil dating is inaccurate because of ubiquitous open U-series systems. New morphostratigraphic data from La Marina (eastern Spain) supported by open-system U-series coral ages shed light on the maximum sea level during OIS 7. Fossil corals (Cladocora caespitosa) underlying an OIS 5e marine unit yielded U-series ages from 178 ± 10 to 208 ± 11 ka (±2s; n=7) with an outlier at 240 ± 18 ka. Mean open-system limit ages of 170 ± 10 (minimum age after correction for 234Th -230Th uptake) and 237 ± 20 ka (maximum age after correction for 238U - 234U uptake) were calculated to have a probable age closer to the minimum value, for an assignment of OIS 7a or 7c. The occurrence of a warm-water “Senegalese” fauna (Strombus bubonius) in OIS5e and OIS 7 marine units confirms the arrival of tropical species to the Mediterranean before the last interglacial period. Morpho-sedimentological and neotectonic studies suggest that the maximum paleo-sea level during OIS 7c or 7a was a few meters below that of OIS 5e.     

Comparison of ESR and TIMS U/Th dating of marine isotope stage (MIS) 5e, 5c, and 5a coral from Barbados—implications for palaeo sea-level changes in the Caribbean

Electron spin resonance (ESR) dating of coral has become an efficient geochronological tool in supporting morphostratigraphic studies carried out on Barbados during the last 10 years. The newly developed approach for D_E determination (D_E–D_max plot procedure) improves the precision of ESR dating of Pleistocene coral, and therefore permits differentiation between the main marine isotope stages (MIS) 5, 7, 9 and 11 and also between sub-stages 5e, c and a. This study compares results of ESR and TIMS Uranium series dating (U/Th) of emergent Last Interglacial coral reef terraces from Barbados, and presents some implications for the timing and extent of sea-level changes during marine isotope stages (MIS) 5e, c and a. Both dating methods indicate a distinct formation of up to three coral reef terraces during MIS 5e, at approximately 132 ka (ESR) to 128 ka (U/Th), at c. 128 ka (ESR) and at c. 120 ka (U/Th) to 118 ka (ESR). It is also highly probable that three reef terraces were developed during MIS 5c between c. 103 ka (U/Th) and 105 ka (ESR). The formation of two separate coral reefs during MIS 5a is recognized for the first time on Barbados, with an age estimate for the older MIS 5a-2 reef of 85 ka (ESR) or 84 ka (U/Th), and an age estimate for the younger MIS 5a-1 reef terraces of 74 ka (ESR) or 77 ka (U/Th). Assuming a constant uplift rate of 0.276 m/ka at the south coast of Barbados, sea-level reached its maximum during MIS 5e-3 and MIS 5e-2 between 132 and 128 ka ago. After this, sea-level declined reaching a level of c. −11 m below present sea level approx. 118–120 ka ago (MIS 5e-1). During the substage 5c sea-level was generally lower than in substage 5e. It reached relative maxima at c. −13, −20 and −25 m during MIS 5c (approx. 105 ka) and formed three distinct coral reef terraces probably in relative short time intervals. For the first time, a double sea-level oscillation is recognized on Barbados during MIS 5a: an early MIS 5a-2 (c. 85 ka) with a sea-level places at approx. −21 m, and a late MIS 5a-1 sub-stage (c. 74 or 77 ka) with a sea-level at approx. –19 m below present sea level.     

Quaternary hinterland evolution of the active Banda Arc: Surface uplift and neotectonic deformation recorded by coral terraces at Kisar,Indonesia

Coral terrace surveys and U-series ages of coral yield a surface uplift rate of ∼0.5 m/ka for Kisar Island, which is an emergent island in the hinterland of the active Banda arc–continent collision. Based on this rate, Kisar first emerged from the ocean as recently as ∼450 ka. These uplifted terraces are gently warped in a pattern of east–west striking folds. These folds are strike parallel to more developed thrust-related folds of similar wavelength imaged by a seismic reflection profile just offshore. This deformation shows that the emergence of Kisar is influenced by forearc closure along the south-dipping Kisar Thrust. However, the pinnacle shape of Kisar and the protrusion of its metamorphic rocks through the forearc basin sediments also suggest a component of extrusion along shear zones or active doming.Coral encrusts the island coast in many locations over 100 m above sea level. Terrace morphology and coral ages are best explained by recognizing major surfaces as mostly growth terraces and minor terraces as mostly erosional into older terraces. All reliable and referable coral U-series ages determined by MC-ICP-MS correlate with marine isotope stage (MIS) 5e (118–128 ka). The only unaltered coral samples are found below 6 m elevation; however an unaltered Tridacna (giant clam) shell in growth position at 95 m elevation yields a U-series age of 195 ± 31 ka, which corresponds to MIS 7. This age agrees with the best-fit uplift model for the island. Loose deposits of unaltered coral fragments found at elevations between 8 and 20 m yield U-series ages of <100 years and may represent paleotsunami deposits from previously undocumented tectonic activity in the region.     

Raised Coral Terraces at Malakula, Vanuatu, Southwest Pacific, Indicate High Sea Level During Marine Isotope Stage 3

The occurrence of a series of raised coral reefs from the uplifted island of Malakula (Vanuatu, SW Pacific) provide an opportunity to examine sea-level fluctuations over at least the past 120,000 years. Thirteen fossil coral samples from Malakula were analyzed by the thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) U/Th dating technique, yielding information on sea levels during late marine isotope stage 3 and early stage 4. Our findings are in good agreement with sea-level estimates from raised coral terraces in Papua New Guinea and the recent sea-level reconstruction from the deep-sea sedimentary δ¹⁸O records. In particular, our coral data appear to confirm that sea levels at about 45,000–50,000 yr B.P. were only 30 to 60 m below the present level. Combined with other evidence of sea-level change, our data provide a strong case for much higher sea levels and therefore markedly reduced continental ice volume at 47,000 to 49,000 years ago.     

桂林地区水南洞14～25万年石笋的碳氧同位素记录和古气候重建

通过对桂林水南洞石笋进行高精度的热电离质谱(TIMS－U)测年和碳氧同位素分析,建立了桂林地区245.20 ka BP至147.90 ka BP间的古气候变化时间序列,确定了石笋记录的时段B与时段C分界的年龄为242.5±6.4 ka BP(相当于深海岩芯氧同位素标准曲线时段7与时段8分界的年龄)、时段A与时段B分界的年龄为 192.6±3.9 ka BP(相当于深海岩芯氧同位素标准曲线时段6与时段7分界的年龄)。桂林地区245.20～147.90 ka BP石笋记录的冷暖事件所反映出的古气候变化,大致可分为3个气候变化阶段:(1) 245.2～242.6 ka BP, 相当于深海岩芯氧同位素标准曲线阶段8的末期;(2) 242.5～192.6 ka BP,相当于深海岩芯氧同位素标准曲线时段7;(3)192.6～147.9 ka BP间的倒数第2次冰期, 相当于深海岩芯氧同位素标准曲线时段6的早中期。石笋的TIMS－U测年和碳氧同位素记录揭示,桂林地区245.2～147.9 ka BP的古气候演变历史与深海岩芯时段8末期、时段7和时段6的氧同位素,深海岩芯中记录的孢子花粉组合、CaCO3含量、海平面的升降变化以及与中国北方黄土、古土壤中记录的孢子花粉组合、成壤程度、全铁富集程度、磁化率变化、原生碎屑CaCO3含量和淋溶强度等所揭示的古气候和古季风变化具有极好的对应关系,表明桂林地区中更新世晚期以来的古气候演变既有全球性特征,又有着强烈的区域性特征。     

长白山天池火山晚更新世以来的喷发活动：

应用高精度铀系不平衡TIMS法测定了吉林长白山天池火山岩锥体中上部的11个熔岩、浮岩样品的年龄，并据此划分出晚更新世、全新世以来6个喷发活动期次，分别为：＞350ka、70ka、18－25ka、10ka、4－5ka和1－0．75ka。此外，还介绍了铀系不平衡法火山岩年代学的基本原理和试验流程，讨论了样品封闭等问题。     

Recognition of non-Milankovitch sea-level highstands at 185 and 343 thousand years ago from U–Th dating of Bahamas sediment

Thirty-one new bulk-sediment U–Th dates are presented, together with an improved δ¹⁸O stratigraphy, for ODP Site 1008A on the slopes of the Bahamas Banks. These ages supplement and extend those from previous studies and provide constraints on the timing of sea-level highstands associated with marine isotope stages (MIS) 7 and 9. Ages are screened for reliability based on their initial U and Th isotope ratios, and on the aragonite fraction of the sediment. Twelve ‘reliable’ dates for MIS 7 suggest that its start is concordant with that predicted if climate is forced by northern-hemisphere summer insolation following the theory of Milankovitch. But U–Th and δ¹⁸O data indicate the presence of an additional highstand which post-dates the expected end of MIS 7 by up to 10 ka. This event is also seen in coral reconstructions of sea-level. It suggests that sea-level is not responding in any simple way to northern-hemisphere summer insolation, and that tuned chronologies which make such an assumption are in error by ≈10 ka at this time. U–Th dates for MIS 9 also suggest a potential mismatch between the actual timing of sea-level and that predicted by simple mid-latitude northern-hemisphere forcing. Four dates are earlier than that predicted for the start of MIS 9. Although the most extreme of these dates may not be reliable (based on the low-aragonite content of the sediment) the other three appear robust and suggest that full MIS 9 interglacial conditions were established at 343 ka. This is ≈8 ka prior to the date expected if this warm period were driven by northern-hemisphere summer insolation.     

天山乌鲁木齐河源末次冰期冰川沉积光释光测年

乌鲁木齐河源地区是中国冰川遗迹保存最丰富、地貌最典型的区域之一,是根据冰川遗迹重建第四纪冰川历史的理想地区。大量的研究工作以及技术测年结果也使其成为试验冰川沉积光释光（optically stimulated luminescence,OSL）测年可行性的理想地点。共采集了6个冰碛及上覆黄土样品用于光释光测年。提取38~63 μm的石英颗粒,运用SAR-SGC法测试等效剂量。各种检验表明测试程序是适用的。通过地貌地层关系、重复样品、已有年代的对比等方法,检验该地冰川沉积OSL测年的可行性。结果表明,OSL年代结果与地貌地层新老关系非常吻合,与已有的其他测年技术的年代结果也具可比性,表明这些样品的OSL信号在沉积之前晒退较好,OSL年代是可信的。冰川观测站侧碛垄的OSL年代为14.8±1.2 ka;9号冰川支谷口附近冰碛的OSL年代为13.5±1.1 ka和17.2±1.3 ka;上望峰冰碛的OSL年代为20.1±1.6 ka。综合OSL年代结果与此前其他测年结果,这几套冰碛垄形成于深海氧同位素MIS 2阶段应该是比较统一的认识。上望峰冰碛上覆黄土的OSL年代（10.5±0.8 ka）也印证了该结论。OSL年代指示上望峰冰碛对应于末次冰期最盛期,冰川观测站和9号冰川支谷谷口冰碛对应于晚冰期。下望峰冰碛的OSL年代为36.3±2.8 ka,对应于MIS 3阶段。下望峰冰碛的形成时代,仍有待更多沉积学以及测年工作进一步确定。