Seismotectonic outline of South-Eastern Sicily: an evaluation of available options for the earthquake fault rupture scenario

Seismotectonic information and interpretations available for SE Sicily suggest three groups of possible sources for the M=7.1-7.5 mainshock of 1693 and its strong foreshock: (1) normal faults belonging to the Ibleo Maltese Escarpment (also: Malta Escarpment); (2) normal faults associated with the two adjacent Simeto and Scordia-Lentini structures; (3) a transfer structure between the Sicily Straits rift system and the two grabens to the north. We use a new kinematic model to invert the data sets of macroseismic intensities of the two earthquakes to retrieve information on their sources. For this, we invert point observations, or intensities tessellated with the Voronoi polygons technique, and treat residuals of inversion in the matrix of points, or in the tessellated plane. Our inversions of the regional intensity patterns using this technique show that family N°3 is a good candidate for the foreshock of 9 January, 1693. For the mainshock of 11 January, 1693, an almost perfect synthesis of its intensity IX area was obtained with our model and a source belonging to family N°3. However, all information considered (tsunami included), this earthquake could have been produced either by (3) or by a fault located along the Ibleo-Maltese Escarpment, and tangential to the Augusta and Siracusa promontories.     

Şarköy-Mürefte 1912 Earthquake's Tsunami, extension of the associated faulting in the Marmara Sea, Turkey

The historical tsunamis in the Marmara Seawere mainly caused by earthquakes andneeded to be documented. Following 1999Izmit earthquake occurred at the EasternMarmara region, a complete inventory ofactive faults in the Marmara Sea regionbecame much more stressed. To the west, thelatest event is 09.08.1912arköy-Mürefte Earthquake. Itoccurred on the active Ganos Fault zone andwas one of the largest earthquakes in theBalkans. The eastern termination of theassociated faulting is in the deep WestMarmara Trough, westernmost of thesuccessive basins forming the Marmara Sea.On the basis of recent multibeam bathymetryand seismic reflection data, estimatedtotal length of the surface rupture isabout 56 km. The historical data reviewedfrom library and archive documents,geological field surveys and offshoregeophysical investigations have shown thatthe 1912 earthquake produced a tsunami. Inaddition a seabed dislocation, the sourceof 1912 tsunami can also be assigned to thesediment slumps appearing in the form ofechelon landslide prisms along the southernslopes of the West Marmara Trough.     

Geodetic and geological evidence of active tectonics in south-western Sicily (Italy)

Integrated geological, geodetic and marine geophysical data provide evidence of active deformation in south-western Sicily, in an area spatially coincident with the macroseismic zone of the destructive 1968 Belice earthquake sequence. Even though the sequence represents the strongest seismic event recorded in Western Sicily in historical times, focal solutions provided by different authors are inconclusive on possible faulting mechanism, which ranges from thrusting to transpression, and the seismogenic source is still undefined. Interferometric (DInSAR) observations reveal a differential ground motion on a SW–NE alignment between Campobello di Mazara and Castelvetrano (CCA), located just west of the maximum macroseismic sector. In addition, new GPS campaign-mode data acquired across the CCA alignment documents NW–SE contractional strain accumulation. Morphostructural analysis allowed to associate the alignment detected through geodetic measurements with a topographic offset of Pleistocene marine sediments. The on-land data were complemented by new high-resolution marine geophysical surveys, which indicate recent contraction on the offshore extension of the CCA alignment. The discovery of archaeological remains displaced by a thrust fault associated with the alignment provided the first likely surface evidence of coseismic and/or aseismic deformation related to a seismogenic source in the area. Results of the integrated study supports the contention that oblique thrusting and folding in response to NW–SE oriented contraction is still active. Although we are not able to associate the CCA alignment to the 1968 seismic sequence or to the historical earthquakes that destroyed the ancient Greek city of Selinunte, located on the nearby coastline, our result must be incorporated in the seismic hazard evaluation of this densely populated area of Sicily.     

Sources of Tsunami and Tsunamigenic Earthquakes in Subduction Zones

—We classified tsunamigenic earthquakes in subduction zones into three types earth quakes at the plate interface (typical interplate events), earthquakes at the outer rise, within the subducting slab or overlying crust (intraplate events), and "tsunami earthquakes" that generate considerably larger tsunamis than expected from seismic waves. The depth range of a typical interplate earthquake source is 10–40km, controlled by temperature and other geological parameters. The slip distribution varies both with depth and along-strike. Recent examples show very different temporal change of slip distribution in the Aleutians and the Japan trench. The tsunamigenic coseismic slip of the 1957 Aleutian earthquake was concentrated on an asperity located in the western half of an aftershock zone 1200km long. This asperity ruptured again in the 1986 Andreanof Islands and 1996 Delarof Islands earthquakes. By contrast, the source of the 1994 Sanriku-oki earthquake corresponds to the low slip region of the previous interplate event, the 1968 Tokachi-oki earthquake. Tsunamis from intraplate earthquakes within the subducting slab can be at least as large as those from interplate earthquakes; tsunami hazard assessments must include such events. Similarity in macroseismic data from two southern Kuril earthquakes illustrates difficulty in distinguishing interplate and slab events on the basis of historical data such as felt reports and tsunami heights. Most moment release of tsunami earthquakes occurs in a narrow region near the trench, and the concentrated slip is responsible for the large tsunami. Numerical modeling of the 1996 Peru earthquake confirms this model, which has been proposed for other tsunami earthquakes, including 1896 Sanriku, 1946 Aleutian and 1992 Nicaragua.     

A macroseismic model of a tsunami source and estimation of its efficiency by numerical modeling

A typical model of the source of a tsunami (“macroseismic source”) is suggested for use in approximate estimation of maximum tsunami height using straightforward numerical modeling. In this paper the model is tested using three actual events: the 1952 North Kuril Is., 1971 Moneron, and 1994 Shikotan earthquakes, which excited considerable tsunamis at Russia’s Far East coasts. Comparison of the maximum tsunami runup values as obtained in numerical experiments with observations of actual tsunamis showed that the numerical model proposed here is suitable for crude estimation of tsunami runup and tsunami waiting times for coastal population centers in the near zone of a tsunami source.     

An ordered probit model for seismic intensity data

Seismic intensity, measured through the Mercalli–Cancani–Sieberg (MCS) scale, provides an assessment of ground shaking level deduced from building damages, any natural environment changes and from any observed effects or feelings. Generally, moving away from the earthquake epicentre, the effects are lower but intensities may vary in space, as there could be areas that amplify or reduce the shaking depending on the earthquake source geometry, geological features and local factors. Currently, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia analyzes, for each seismic event, intensity data collected through the online macroseismic questionnaire available at the web-page www.haisentitoilterremoto.it. Questionnaire responses are aggregated at the municipality level and analyzed to obtain an intensity defined on an ordinal categorical scale. The main aim of this work is to model macroseismic attenuation and obtain an intensity prediction equation which describes the decay of macroseismic intensity as a function of the magnitude and distance from the hypocentre. To do this we employ an ordered probit model, assuming that the intensity response variable is related through the link probit function to some predictors. Differently from what it is commonly done in the macroseismic literature, this approach takes properly into account the qualitative and ordinal nature of the macroseismic intensity as defined on the MCS scale. Using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, we estimate the posterior probability of the intensity at each site. Moreover, by comparing observed and estimated intensities we are able to detect anomalous areas in terms of residuals. This kind of information can be useful for a better assessment of seismic risk and for promoting effective policies to reduce major damages.     

Methodological Considerations for the Evaluation of Seismic Risk on Road Network

The recent earthquakes in California and Japan have shown the fundamental role that the road infrastructure plays in emergencies. In fact, only the maintenance of a sufficient level of efficiency can help to quickly reach the affected areas and thus avoid further serious consequences. The necessity of guaranteeing the functionality of the transport network during seismic events therefore requires seismic risk planning extended also to the road infrastructures in order to support the management of post-earthquake emergencies. Analogously it is fundamentally important to have analysis instruments of the road system able to preventatively evaluate the effects of earthquakes in order to identify possible emergencies, therefore preparing a program of intervention to reduce seismic risk on road networks. This paper proposes a methodology for the evaluation of seismic risk of road infrastructures according to the following points:Study of seismic hazard of the site for the definition of a seismic scenario using attenuation models in relation to historical seismology and the geological and tectonic characteristics of the territory;Analysis of the direct exposure connected to the probability of the presence of road users on the different parts of the network directly exposed to the seismic event;Analysis of the indirect exposure relative to the distribution of the population and the infrastructures for which post-earthquake accessibility must be guaranteed;Evaluation of the functional vulnerability in relation to the potential replaceability of damaged stretches considering network configuration and geometrical characteristics;Evaluation of structural vulnerability of the stretch correlated to the characteristics (structural, mechanical, technological, etc.) of the different components (bridges, embankments, trenches, tunnels) that make up the stretches obtained by the use of correctly elaborated tables for each component.The determination of global risk indexes of the single stretches and of the network, evaluated by means of a relationship between the ascertained parameters derived from the investigation of the previous points, provides the necessary information for the definition of mitigation measures to reduce the risk and for management planning before and after disaster. The proposed methodology, which has already been applied to a restricted area, is currently being applied to the province of Catania (Sicily, Italy), which is one of the geographical regions of highest seismic risk in Europe, and its future extension to all of eastern Sicily is foreseeable.     

Building vulnerability and seismic risk analysis in the urban area of Mt. Etna volcano (Italy)

The tectonic system of the eastern flank of Mt. Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy) is the source of most of the strongest earthquakes occurring in the area over the last 205 years. A total of 12 events with epicentre intensities ≥VIII EMS have occurred at Mt. Etna, 10 of which were located on the eastern flank. This indicates a mean recurrence time of about 20 years. This area is highly urbanised, with many villages around the volcano at altitudes up to 700 m a.s.l. The southern and eastern flanks are particularly highly populated areas, with numerous villages very close to each other. The probabilistic seismic hazard due to local faults for Mt. Etna was calculated by adopting a site approach to seismic hazard assessment. Only the site histories of local volcano-tectonic earthquakes were considered, leaving out the effects due to strong regional earthquakes that occurred in north-eastern and south-eastern Sicily. The inventory used in this application refers to residential buildings. These data were extracted from the 1991 census of the Italian National Institute of Statistics, and are grouped according to the census sections. The seismic vulnerability of the elements at risk belonging to a given building typology is described by a vulnerability index, in accordance with a damage model based on macroseismic intensities. For the estimation of economic losses due to physical damage to buildings, an integrated impact indicator was used, which is equivalent to the lost building volume. The expected annualised economic earthquake losses were evaluated both in absolute and in relative terms, and were compared with the geographical distribution of seismic hazard and with similar evaluations of losses for other regions.     

Numerical Simulation of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami Based on a New Transient FEM Co-seismic Source: Comparison to Far- and Near-Field Observations

In this work, we simulate the 2011 M9 Tohoku-Oki tsunami using new coseismic tsunami sources based on inverting onshore and offshore geodetic data, using 3D Finite Element Models (FEM). Such FEMs simulate elastic dislocations along the plate boundary interface separating the stiff subducting Pacific Plate from the relatively weak forearc and volcanic arc of the overriding Eurasian plate. Due in part to the simulated weak forearc materials, such sources produce significant shallow slip (several tens of meters) along the updip portion of the rupture near the trench. To assess the accuracy of the new approach, we compare observations and numerical simulations of the tsunami's far- and near-field coastal impact for: (i) one of the standard seismic inversion sources (UCSB; Shao et al. 2011); and (ii) the new FEM sources. Specifically, results of numerical simulations for both sources, performed using the fully nonlinear and dispersive Boussinesq wave model FUNWAVE-TVD, are compared to DART buoy, GPS tide gauge, and inundation/runup measurements. We use a series of nested model grids with varying resolution (down to 250 m nearshore) and size, and assess effects on model results of the latter and of model physics (such as when including dispersion or not). We also assess the effects of triggering the tsunami sources in the propagation model: (i) either at once as a hot start, or with the spatiotemporal sequence derived from seismic inversion; and (ii) as a specified surface elevation or as a more realistic time and space-varying bottom boundary condition (in the latter case, we compute the initial tsunami generation up to 300 s using the non-hydrostatic model NHWAVE). Although additional refinements are expected in the near future, results based on the current FEM sources better explain long wave near-field observations at DART and GPS buoys near Japan, and measured tsunami inundation, while they simulate observations at distant DART buoys as well or better than the UCSB source. None of the sources, however, are able to explain the largest runup and inundation measured between 39.5° and 40.25°N, which could be due to insufficient model resolution in this region (Sanriku/Ria) of complex bathymetry/topography, and/or to additional tsunami generation mechanisms not represented in the coseismic sources (e.g., splay faults, submarine mass failure). This will be the object of future work.     

A review on the lithospheric structures in the Tibetan Plateau and constraints for dynamics

In the last decade, several international joint projects were conducted in the Tibetan Plateau by Chinese, American and French geophysicists and geologists. In the present review, the results from vertical reflections, wide-angle reflections and broadband digital seismic recordings are reviewed and compared. Constraints for the dynamics of continent-continent collision from the lithospheric structures, seismicity, focal mechanism and anisotropy are discussed.The velocities ofPn,Sn, , were accurately determined by using their travel times from local events. They evidenced that the uppermost mantle underneath the Tibetan Plateau was similar to that of the ordinary continental mantle.The reflection profile from INDEPTH-I furnishes convincing evidence that the Indian crust penetrates into the Tibetan lower crust. The results from teleseismic waveform inversion reveal that the Moho discontinuity dips northwards, and an offset of Moho occurs near Bangong suture.The fact that materials within the Tibetan Plateau escape laterally has been proposed by several authors. Recent data and studies provide further convincing evidence that eastward mass transfer does occur, and their paths and natures are investigated.Some authors suggested that the large strike slip faults (Kun Lun, Xianshuihe) in the eastern plateau may be related to the lateral extrusion. However, most of the strike slips are left-lateral, and extrusion could not occur without right-lateral strike slips. Recent observations of the focal mechanisms and geological structure indicate that the earthquakes in the Yanshiping-Changdu belt are left-lateral strike slip. It is the southeast zone of the left-lateral slip faults in the eastern Tibetan plateau. Geological and seismological evidence show that the Bencuo-Jiali belt is the only large right-lateral fault in the eastern plateau. It was proposed that the present eastward extrusion occurs between the Yangshiping-Changdu left-lateral strike slip and the Bencuo-Jiali right-lateral strike slip. The other left-lateral strike slips north of the Yangshiping-Changdu belt are considered to be the fossils of the ancient flow paths.     

Tsunami detection by high-frequency radar in British Columbia: performance assessment of the time-correlation algorithm for synthetic and real events

The authors recently proposed a new method for detecting tsunamis using high-frequency (HF) radar observations, referred to as “time-correlation algorithm” (TCA; Grilli et al. Pure Appl Geophys 173(12):3895–3934, 2016a, 174(1): 3003–3028, 2017). Unlike standard algorithms that detect surface current patterns, the TCA is based on analyzing space-time correlations of radar signal time series in pairs of radar cells, which does not require inverting radial surface currents. This was done by calculating a contrast function, which quantifies the change in pattern of the mean correlation between pairs of neighboring cells upon tsunami arrival, with respect to a reference correlation computed in the recent past. In earlier work, the TCA was successfully validated based on realistic numerical simulations of both the radar signal and tsunami wave trains. Here, this algorithm is adapted to apply to actual data from a HF radar installed in Tofino, BC, for three test cases: (1) a simulated far-field tsunami generated in the Semidi Subduction Zone in the Aleutian Arc; (2) a simulated near-field tsunami from a submarine mass failure on the continental slope off of Tofino; and (3) an event believed to be a meteotsunami, which occurred on October 14th, 2016, off of the Pacific West Coast and was measured by the radar. In the first two cases, the synthetic tsunami signal is superimposed onto the radar signal by way of a current memory term; in the third case, the tsunami signature is present within the radar data. In light of these test cases, we develop a detection methodology based on the TCA, using a correlation contrast function, and show that in all three cases the algorithm is able to trigger a timely early warning.     

The macroseismic field of the Balkan area

A catalogue of 356 macroseimic maps which are available for the Balkan area was compiled, including information on the source parameters of the corresponding earthquakes, the macroseismic parameters of their strength and their macroseismic field. The data analysis of this catalogue yields new empirical relations for attenuation, which can be applied for the calibration of historical events, modelling of isoseismals and seismic hazard assessment. An appropriate analysis allowed the separation and estimation of the average values of the geometrical spreading, n, and anelastic attenuation factor, c, for the examined area which were found equal to –3.227 ± 0.112 and –0.0033 ± 0.0010. Scaling relations for the focal macroseismic intensity, I_f, and the epicentral intensity I₀, versus the earthquake moment magnitude were also determined for each Balkan country. A gradual decrease of the order of 0.5 to 1 intensity unit is demonstrated for recent (after 1970) earthquakes in Greece. Finally the depths of the examined earthquakes as they robustly determined (error <5 km) on the basis of macroseismic data were found to have small values ( 10 km). However large magnitude earthquakes show higher focal depths ( 25 km), in accordance with an increase of the seismic fault dimensions for such events.     

Historical intermediate-depth earthquakes in the southern Aegean Sea Benioff zone: modeling their anomalous macroseismic patterns with stochastic ground-motion simulations

We model the macroseismic damage distribution of four important intermediate-depth earthquakes of the southern Aegean Sea subduction zone, namely the destructive 1926 M?=?7.7 Rhodes and 1935 M?=?6.9 Crete earthquakes, the unique 1956 M?=?6.9 Amorgos aftershock (recently proposed to be triggered by a shallow event), and the more recent 2002 M?=?5.9 Milos earthquake, which all exhibit spatially anomalous macroseismic patterns. Macroseismic data for these events are collected from published macroseismic databases and compared with the spatial distribution of seismic motions obtained from stochastic simulation, converted to macroseismic intensity (Modified Mercalli scale, I_MM). For this conversion, we present an updated correlation between macroseismic intensities and peak measures of seismic motions (PGA and PGV) for the intermediate-depth earthquakes of the southern Aegean Sea. Input model parameters for the simulations, such as fault dimensions, stress parameters, and attenuation parameters (e.g. back-arc/along anelastic attenuation) are adopted from previous work performed in the area. Site-effects on the observed seismic motions are approximated using generic transfer functions proposed for the broader Aegean Sea area on the basis of V_S30 values from topographic slope proxies. The results are in very good agreement with the observed anomalous damage patterns, for which the largest intensities are often observed at distances >?100 km from the earthquake epicenters. We also consider two additional “prediction” but realistic intermediate-depth earthquake scenarios, and model their macroseismic distributions, to assess their expected damage impact in the broader southern Aegean area. The results suggest that intermediate-depth events, especially north of central Crete, have a prominent effect on a wide area of the outer Hellenic arc, with a very important impact on modern urban centers along northern Crete coasts (e.g. city of Heraklion), in excellent agreement with the available historical information.     

Andaman-Sumatra island arc: II. The December 26, 2004 earthquake as one of the key episodes in seismogenic activation of the arc in the beginning of XXI century

The interpretation of the nature and parameters of the source for the earthquake that occurred in Sumatra on December 26, 2004 is suggested. Our study relies on a variety of data on the geological structure of the region, long-term seismicity, spatial distribution of the foreshocks and aftershocks, and focal mechanisms; and the pattern of shaking and tsunami, regularities in the occurrence of the earthquakes, and the genetic relationship between the seismic and geological parameters inherent in various types of seismogenic zones including island arcs. The source of the Sumatran earthquake is a steep reverse fault striking parallel to the island arc and dipping towards the ocean. The length of the fault is ～450 km, and its probable bedding depth is ～70–100 km. The magnitude of this seismic event corresponding to the length of its source is 8.9–9.0. The vertical displacement in the source probably reached 9–13 m. The fault is located near the inner boundary of the Aceh Depression between the epicenter of the earthquake and the northern tip of the depression. The strike-slip and strike-slip reverse the faults cutting the island arc form the northern and southern borders of the source. The location and source parameters in the suggested interpretation account quite well for the observed pattern of shaking and tsunami. The Aceh Depression and its environs probably also host other seismic sources in the form of large reverse faults. The Sumatran earthquake, which was the culmination of the seismogenic activation of the Andaman-Sumatra island arc in the beginning of XXI century, is a typical tsunamigenic island-arc earthquake. By its characteristics, this event is an analogue to the M _W = 9 Kamchatka earthquake of November 4, 1952. The spatial distribution of the epicenters and the focal mechanisms of the aftershocks indicate that the repeated shocks during the Sumatran event were caused by the activation of a complex system of geological structures in various parts of the island arc and Andaman Sea instead of the slips on a single rupture (a subduction thrust about 1200–1300 km in length).     

Anisotropic radiation modelling of macroseismic intensities for estimation of the attenuation structure of the upper crust in Greece

A method is suggested for the analysis of macroseismic intensity data in order to accurately determine an average attenuation structure of the upper part of the crust in an area. The method is based on a model which assumes that the observed intensities depend on source properties (radiation pattern, size, focal depth), geometrical spreading and anelastic attenuation. The method is applied to 13,008 intensity values, observed in corresponding sites of Greece and grouped (in 4228 groups), according to their spatial clustering in order to diminish observational errors and site effects. An average intensity attenuation coefficient,c=–0.0039±0.0016, corresponding to a quality factor, Q=350±140, is determined for the upper 20 km of the crust in this area. This value is relatively low, in good agreement with the relatively high heat flow and high seismic activity of this area. A byproduct of the present study is the determination, for each earthquake, of a macroseismic focal depth and of a macroseismic size, which is strongly correlatted with both the earthquake's magnitude and its seismic moment determined by independent methods.     

Combined Effects of Tectonic and Landslide-Generated Tsunami Runup at Seward, Alaska During the M W 9.2 1964 Earthquake

We apply a recently developed and validated numerical model of tsunami propagation and runup to study the inundation of Resurrection Bay and the town of Seward by the 1964 Alaska tsunami. Seward was hit by both tectonic and landslide-generated tsunami waves during the $M_{\rm W}$ 9.2 1964 megathrust earthquake. The earthquake triggered a series of submarine mass failures around the fjord, which resulted in landsliding of part of the coastline into the water, along with the loss of the port facilities. These submarine mass failures generated local waves in the bay within 5?min of the beginning of strong ground motion. Recent studies estimate the total volume of underwater slide material that moved in Resurrection Bay to be about 211?million m³ (Haeussler et?al. in Submarine mass movements and their consequences, pp 269?C278, 2007). The first tectonic tsunami wave arrived in Resurrection Bay about 30?min after the main shock and was about the same height as the local landslide-generated waves. Our previous numerical study, which focused only on the local landslide-generated waves in Resurrection Bay, demonstrated that they were produced by a number of different slope failures, and estimated relative contributions of different submarine slide complexes into tsunami amplitudes (Suleimani et?al. in Pure Appl Geophys 166:131?C152, 2009). This work extends the previous study by calculating tsunami inundation in Resurrection Bay caused by the combined impact of landslide-generated waves and the tectonic tsunami, and comparing the composite inundation area with observations. To simulate landslide tsunami runup in Seward, we use a viscous slide model of Jiang and LeBlond (J Phys Oceanogr 24(3):559?C572, 1994) coupled with nonlinear shallow water equations. The input data set includes a high resolution multibeam bathymetry and LIDAR topography grid of Resurrection Bay, and an initial thickness of slide material based on pre- and post-earthquake bathymetry difference maps. For simulation of tectonic tsunami runup, we derive the 1964 coseismic deformations from detailed slip distribution in the rupture area, and use them as an initial condition for propagation of the tectonic tsunami. The numerical model employs nonlinear shallow water equations formulated for depth-averaged water fluxes, and calculates a temporal position of the shoreline using a free-surface moving boundary algorithm. We find that the calculated tsunami runup in Seward caused first by local submarine landslide-generated waves, and later by a tectonic tsunami, is in good agreement with observations of the inundation zone. The analysis of inundation caused by two different tsunami sources improves our understanding of their relative contributions, and supports tsunami risk mitigation in south-central Alaska. The record of the 1964 earthquake, tsunami, and submarine landslides, combined with the high-resolution topography and bathymetry of Resurrection Bay make it an ideal location for studying tectonic tsunamis in coastal regions susceptible to underwater landslides.     

Seismotectonic studies of the pleistoseist area of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> <Subscript> <Emphasis Type="Italic">s</Emphasis> </Subscript> = 6.9 Ilin-Tass earthquake in northeast Yakutia

The complex seismotectonic studies of the pleistoseist area of the Ilin-Tas earthquake (M_s = 6.9), one of the strongest seismic events ever recorded by the regional seismic network in northeastern Russia, are carried out. The structural tectonic position, morphotectonic features of present-day topography, active faults, and types of Cenozoic deformations of the epicentral zone are analyzed. The data of the instrumental observations are summarized, and the manifestations of the strong seismic events in the Yana–Indigirka segment of the Cherskii seismotectonic zone are considered. The explanation is suggested for the dynamical tectonic setting responsible for the Andrei-Tas seismic maximum. This setting is created by the influence of the Kolyma–Omolon indenter, which intrudes into the Cherskii seismotectonic zone from the region of the North American lithospheric plate and forms the main seismogenic structures of the Yana–Indigirka segment in the frontal zone (the Ilin-Tas anticlinorium). The highest seismic potential is noted in the Andrei- Tas block—the focus of the main tectonic impacts from the Kolyma–Omolon superterrane. The general trend of this block coincides with the orientation of the major axis of isoseismal ellipses (azimuth 50°–85°), which were determined from the observations of macroseismic effects on the ground after the Uyandina (M_s = 5.6), Andrei-Tas (M_s = 6.1), and Ilin-Tas (M_s = 6.9) earthquakes.     

Tsunami Forecasting and Monitoring in New Zealand

New Zealand is exposed to tsunami threats from several sources that vary significantly in their potential impact and travel time. One route for reducing the risk from these tsunami sources is to provide advance warning based on forecasting and monitoring of events in progress. In this paper the National Tsunami Warning System framework, including the responsibilities of key organisations and the procedures that they follow in the event of a tsunami threatening New Zealand, are summarised. A method for forecasting threat-levels based on tsunami models is presented, similar in many respects to that developed for Australia by Allen and Greenslade (Nat Hazards 46:35?C52, 2008), and a simple system for easy access to the threat-level forecasts using a clickable pdf file is presented. Once a tsunami enters or initiates within New Zealand waters, its progress and evolution can be monitored in real-time using a newly established network of online tsunami gauge sensors placed at strategic locations around the New Zealand coasts and offshore islands. Information from these gauges can be used to validate and revise forecasts, and assist in making the all-clear decision.     

Application of the ESI-2007 Scale for Estimating the Intensity of the Kultuk Earthquake,August 27, 2008 (South Baikal)

The paper deals with issues related to the testing of the ESI-2007 scale by using as an example the real seismic event that occurred on August 27, 2008 in South Baikal. The main objective of the paper is to carry out a comparative assessment of the earthquake’s intensity based on traditional macroseismic scales and environmental seismic intensity (ESI-2007) scales. The results of the macroseismic survey served as the initial data. Analysis has been made on the ESI-2007 scale in conformity with the requirements for seismic scales. Particular emphasis has been placed on the type (or rank) of the ESI-2007 scale. Such an investigation is one of the first cases of the application of a new scale by the example of a regional seismic event.     

Analysis and automatic processing in near-field of eight 1992–1994 tsunamigenic earthquakes: Improvements towards real-time tsunami warning

We study eight tsunamigenic earthquakes of 1992–1994 with data from single near-field 3-component long-period stations. The analysis is made from the standpoint of tsunami warning by an automatic process which estimates the epicentral location and the seismic moment through the variable-period mantle magnitudeM _m . Simulations of early warning based on the real-time computation of the seismic moment are also tested with this system, which would give a justified warning in each region of tsunami potentiality. By exploiting the dependence of moment rate release with frequency, the system has the capability of recognizing both tsunami earthquakes such as the 1992 Nicaragua and 1994 Java events, as well as instances of the opposite case of low-frequency deficiency, interpreted as indicating a deeper than normal source (1993 Guam event). We report both the results of delayed-time processing of the near-field stations, and the actual real-time warnings at PPT, which confirm the former.