Balancing Carbon Emission Reductions and Social Economic Development for Sustainable Development: Experience from 24 Countries

The impact of human carbon emissions on climate has generated widespread global concern. We selected 24 countries as research objects and analysed the changes in carbon emissions in different countries between the establishment of emission reduction actions in 1990 and 2014. Then, we selected 19 factors representing four categories(economy, population, technology and energy) to explore the key factors that led to changes in carbon dioxide(CO_2) emissions in different countries. Emission reduction actions since 1990 did not lead to marked improvements, and only five countries(Russia, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy and France) achieved reductions in carbon emissions. The factors that influenced CO_2 emissions varied among countries. In most developing countries, reductions in CO_2 emissions were caused by reductions in poverty and inherent natural conditions. Moreover, the extent of influence of a given factor on CO_2 emissions differed among countries. The global economic crisis may cause similar fluctuations in CO_2 emissions in many countries. Adjustments to energy and industrial structures are the main reason for the reduction in carbon emissions, whereas economic growth and urbanization are the two major contributors to the growth of carbon emissions. According to historical carbon emissions data, a green energy revolution must be implemented to address global climate change and ensure the sustainable development of human societies.     

结合“珞珈一号”夜间灯光与城市功能分区的广州市碳排放空间分布模拟及其影响因素分析

合理模拟城市内部的碳排放空间分布情况,是制定清晰明确的碳减排政策的重要前提。由于以往相关研究所用数据分辨率较低,且未考虑行业差异,因此所得结果较难精细地反映碳排放空间分布特征。为解决以上不足,本文提出一种更为合理的碳排放空间分布模拟方法。首先利用时间序列法预测2019年广州市各行业碳排放量;然后结合“珞珈一号”夜间灯光及城市功能分区数据,在精细尺度下实现分行业的碳排放空间化;在此基础上进行空间自相关分析,揭示广州市碳排放空间分布规律;最后采用随机森林模型分析影响广州市分行业碳排放的社会经济驱动因素。结果表明：① 广州市碳排放量在2011年后呈缓慢增长趋势,2019年碳排放量达83.12百万吨,其主要贡献来源为交通行业;② 与常用的ODIAC（1 km）、EDGAR（10 km）碳排放产品及基于NPP-VIIRS的碳排放空间化结果（500 m）相比,结合高分辨率（130 m）夜间灯光数据以及城市功能分区实现的碳排放空间化结果可以在更精细的尺度上呈现区域内部的空间碳排放差异;③ 广州市碳排放呈显著的全局空间正相关,形成了以第二和第三产业集中区域为依托的高高聚集区;④ 广州市2019年第二产业碳排放的主要影响因素是一般公共预算收入、第二产业GDP、一般公共预算支出、固定资产投资额;第三产业碳排放的主要影响因素是社会消费品零售额、第三产业GDP、各个行政区总GDP以及人口数量。综上,本研究从城市内部行业结构差异出发,结合高分辨率的夜间灯光数据,展现区域内部的碳排放分布格局,所得结果将有利于相关部门制定精准的碳减排和产业优化升级策略。     

Assessing the influence of highway and high-speed railway construction on local climate using Landsat images in karst areas

Large-scale transportation infrastructure construction in ecologically vulnerable areas such as the karst region of Southwest China requires estimation method for better project design. This research was carried out on a four-lane highway(the Guilin-Guiyang highway, G76) and a two-lane highspeed railway(the Guilin-Guiyang high-speed railway,GGHSR) in karst areas in Guizhou and Guangxi provinces. The highway and high-speed railway were constructed in the 2010 s and covered by Landsat images whose multispectral information could be used for research purposes. In this study, the severity of the impact and the CO_2 emissions from the G76 and GGHSR construction were evaluated. Landsat images and field meteorological measurements were applied to calculate the surface functional parameters(surface temperature and surface wetness) and heat fluxes(latent, sensible and ground heat flux) before and during the highway and high-speed railway construction; the amount of CO_2 emissions during the G76 and GGHSR construction were determined by using budget sheets, which record the detail consumptions of materials and energy. The results showed that the decrease of water evaporation from the highway and high-speed railway construction can reach up to 26.4 m~3 and 20.1 m~3 per kilometer, which corresponds to an average decrease in the vegetation cooling effect of 18.0 MWh per day per highway kilometer and 13.7 MWh per day per high-speed railway kilometer, respectively. At the meantime, the average CO_2 emission densities from the G76 and GGHSR construction can reach up to 24813.7 and 36921.1 t/km, respectively. This study implied that extensive line constructions have a significant impact on the local climate and the energy balance, and it is evident that selecting and planting appropriate plant species can compensate for the adverse effects of line constructions in karst mountain regions.     

Carbon emission trends of manufacturing and influencing factors in Jilin Province,China

This paper constructed a carbon emission identity based on five factors: industrial activity, industrial structure, energy intensity, energy mix and carbon emission parameter, and analyzed manufacturing carbon emission trends in Jilin Province at subdivided industrial level through Log-Mean Divisia Index(LMDI) method. Results showed that manufacturing carbon emissions of Jilin Province increased 1.304 × 107 t by 66% between 2004 and 2010. However, 2012 was a remarkable year in which carbon emissions decreased compared with 2011, the first fall since 2004. Industrial activity was the most important factor for the increase of carbon emissions, while energy intensity had the greatest impact on inhibiting carbon emission growth. Despite the impact of industrial structure on carbon emissions fluctuated, its overall trend inhibited carbon emission growth. Further, influences of industrial structure became gradually stronger and surpassed energy intensity in the period 2009–2010. These results conclude that reducing energy intensity is still the main way for carbon emission reduction in Jilin Province, but industrial structure can not be ignored and it has great potential. Based on the analyses, the way of manufacturing industrial structure adjustment for Jilin Province is put forward.     

武汉居民建筑物碳排放反演计算和时空分析

居民建筑物（民用住宅建筑物）碳排放对节能减排策略制定及城市可持续发展具有重要影响。针对目前城市碳排放计算方法尺度较大且缺乏居民建筑物碳排放一致性计算的问题,本文提出一种多源数据融合的城市居民建筑物碳排放定量计算方法。该方法首先采用自上而下的策略,结合夜间灯光图像,将武汉市居民碳排放总量分配到每个地块;然后采用自下而上的策略,构建由地块规划因子、社会经济因子以及单体居民建筑物形态因子组成的居民建筑物碳排放反演模型。论文使用该方法计算了武汉市所有单体居民建筑物的电能消耗碳排放量,研究结果表明：① 居民建筑物碳排放量在空间分布上呈现由中心城区向郊区不断递减的模式,和人口分布有着密切的关系;② 居民建筑物碳排放量分布具有异质性,呈现出长尾分布的特性,其中89%的居民建筑物的碳排放量低于平均值1.28 t,而11%的居民建筑物的碳排放量高于平均值;③ 同一地块上的居民建筑物碳排放量差异相对较小,地块之内平均标准差为7.66 t,而不同地块上的居民建筑物碳排放量差异相对较大,地块之间平均标准差达到51.30 t;④ 居民建筑物的碳排放量更容易受到规划因子中的容积率影响,社会经济因子中的人口密度影响,以及居民建筑物形态类型的影响。论文研究方法及相关研究成果可以为城市居住区可持续规划等问题提供决策支持。     

基于夜间遥感和POI的荆门市能耗空间定量化分析

以全球变暖和极端气候为主要特征的气候变化已成为世界各国普遍关注的重大环境问题,全球性的碳排放问题亟待解决已是非常明确的科学共识.然而城市能源消耗尤其是在街道街区尺度能源消耗空间定量化研究目前较少,不利于城市采取精准控制、优化能源结构和减少碳排放措施.本文以资源型城市荆门作为案例城市,以夜间遥感数据、POI等空间数据为基...     

基于夜间灯光数据的晋陕蒙能源消费碳排放时空格局

晋陕蒙三省区既是能源生产基地又是碳排放主要地区。对晋陕蒙市县的碳排放估算难度较大,如何准确快捷地获取其碳排放时空动态信息,对于合理制定区域碳减排规划具有重要的应用价值。本文选取中国晋陕蒙三省作为研究对象,基于夜间灯光数据,模拟晋陕蒙地区碳排放空间分布,进而系统地刻画其碳排放空间分布特征和规律。研究结果表明：① 1997-2016年,晋陕蒙三省区夜间灯光像元总值与能源消耗碳排放量之间的相关系数较高,均通过了1%的显著性检验;② 1997-2016 年,晋陕蒙地区的CO₂排放总量呈逐年增长趋势,鄂尔多斯市属于“高碳”地区;铜川市、安康市、商洛市、汉中市、阿拉善盟和阳泉市属于“低碳”地区;③ 陕西省碳排放清晰地呈现出“陕北>关中>陕南”的格局。晋陕蒙地区碳排放空间分布规律分析为该区域制定切实可行的碳减排政策提供了重要的理论依据。     

中国城市蔓延阶段特征及驱动因素分析

城市蔓延是城市快速发展过程中普遍出现的问题。本文在总结国内外理论和实证研究的基础上,采用建成区面积对城镇人口的弹性来表征城市蔓延,对全国214个地级市市辖区1996-2014年的城市蔓延阶段特征进行分析,从产业发展、政府推动作用、教育发展水平、全球化水平、交通发展水平、市场化水平这些方面,进一步对城市蔓延的驱动力展开深入探究。结果表明：①城市蔓延问题具有路径依赖,在以经济快速增长为目标的发展纲要指导下,城市往往持续蔓延。②第二产业发展将显著加剧城市蔓延,但地方政府可以通过推动第三产业发展、吸引外资优化经济发展结构,缓解城市蔓延问题。③道路建设、市场化水平、高校教育水平对城市蔓延的影响较小或并不显著。最后本文提出了控制城市蔓延问题的政策建议。     

Developing China’s National Emission Trading Scheme: Experiences from Existing Global Schemes and China’s Pilot Programs

Market-based emission trading schemes (ETSs) are widely used in the developed world to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which are perceived as the source of global climate change. China, as the largest GHG emitter in the world, is committed to introducing an ETS to reduce emissions. Here we reviewed existing ETSs and sustainable energy policies worldwide as well as China’s pilot programs. These studies were conducted in order to propose recommendations for national initiatives and strategies to be implemented in China in relation to climate change adaptation and mitigation. It has been shown that setting emission caps in the context of a national emission intensity target is difficult. However, implementing reliable systems for measurement, reporting, and verification of emissions are essential. A two-level management system (by central and provincial governments) for carbon trading is beneficial to ensure uniform standards and compliance while maintaining flexibility. Persistent political support from, and effective coordination of, policies by the government are crucial. In addition, strengthening of institutional innovation, and the establishment of a national GHG emissions information system, are of equal importance. This vital information could provide a great opportunity for China to re-define its economic growth and take global leadership in combatting climate change.     

Spatial pattern and influencing factor of county-level industrial development in Liaoning Province of China

County-level industrial development and structure upgrade is one of the most important issues of revitalizing old industrial base of China. After the cluster analysis on GDP per capita and GDP per area of each county in Liaoning Province, this paper finds the similarity of population size, land use intensity, and economic development of each county. Location quotient reflects the specialization intensity of industries in each county, and it also reflects the spatial differences of county-level industrial development. Economic development level is higher in the southeast than in the northwest of Liaoning, and the industry driving effect on county-level economy is apparent. The main influencing factors include location, industrial foundation and economic system reform, capital input level, knowledge and technology dissemination, conditions of domestic and overseas markets, population and labor force transfer. Industrialization is an important approach to urbanization for the counties in Liaoning Province. The proportion of agriculture is much higher in the northwest than in the southeast of Liaoning, so it will be take longer time for counties in the northwest of Liaoning to make industrialization, urbanization and modernization.     

Residential energy consumption and associated carbon emission in forest rural area in China: A case study in Weichang County

Rural energy consumption in China has increased dramatically in the last decades, and has become a significant contributor of carbon emissions. Yet there is limited data on energy consumption patterns and their evolution in forest rural areas of China. In order to bridge this gap, we report the findings of field surveys in forest villages in Weichang County as a case study of rural energy consumption in northern China. We found that the residential energy consumption per household is 3313 kgce yr-1(kilogram standard coal equivalent per year), with energy content of 9.7 × 107 kJ yr-1, including 1783 kgce yr-1 from coal, 1386 kgce yr-1 from fuel wood, 96 kgce yr-1 from electricity, and 49 kgce yr-1 from LPG. Per capita consumption is 909 kgce yr-1 and its energy content is 2.7 × 107 kJ yr-1. Due to a total energy utilization efficiency of 24.6%, all the consumed energy can only supply about 2.4 × 107 kJ yr-1 of efficient energy content. Secondly, household energy consumption is partitioned into 2614 kgce yr-1 for heating, 616 kgce yr-1 for cooking, and 117 kgce yr-1 for home appliances. Thirdly, the associated carbon emissions per household are 2556 kgC yr-1, including1022 kgC yr-1 from unutilized fuel wood(90% of the total fuel wood). The rest of emissions come from the use of electricity(212 kgC yr-1), coal(1301 kgC yr-1) and LPG(21 kgC yr-1). Fourthly, local climate, family size and household income have strong influences on rural residential energy consumption. Changes in storage and utilization practices of fuel can lead to the 10%-30% increase in the efficiency of fuel wood use, leading to reduced energy consumption by 924 kgce yr-1 per household(27.9% reduction) and 901 kgC yr-1 of carbon emissions(35.3% reduction).     

碳排放和减碳的社会经济代价研究进展与方法探究

碳排放和减碳的社会经济影响与代价评估日益受到学术界和决策者的关注,本文综合分析了全球范围内碳排放与减碳社会经济影响的重要科学问题和国内外研究现状,基于卫星最新观测到的全球CO₂非均匀分布的事实,针对温控1.5 ℃和2 ℃阈值情景,探讨了全球二氧化碳非均匀动态分布与地表温度时空关系,全球二氧化碳非均匀动态分布状况下主要国家碳排放空间评价以及温控1.5 ℃和2 ℃阈值情景下中国碳排放和减碳社会经济代价评估等问题可采取的技术模型方案,并提出了构建新气候变化经济学的理论方法与技术体系。本文构建的技术路线和研究方法拟为国家制订各项应对碳排放和减碳战略与对策、减缓气候变化并实现可持续转型、提升中国在应对气候变化领域的国际话语权等方面提供决策支持。     

Spatial-temporal Evolution Characteristics and Decoupling Analysis of Influencing Factors of China's Aviation Carbon Emissions

The aviation industry has become one of the top ten greenhouse gas emission industries in the world.China's aviation carbon emissions continue to increase,but t...     

Review of maritime transportation air emission pollution and policy analysis

The study of air emission in maritime transportation is new, and the recognition of its importance has been rising in the recent decade. The emissions of CO2, SO2, NO2 and particulate matters from maritime transportation have contributed to climate change and environmental degradation. Scientifically, analysts still have controversies regarding how to calculate the emissions and how to choose the baseline and methodologies. Three methods are generally used, namely the ‘bottom up’ approach, the ‘top down’ ap...     

Spatial-temporal heterogeneity of industrial structure transformation and carbon emission effect in Xuzhou Metropolitan Area

Employing decoupling index and industrial structure characteristic bias index methods, this study analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics of industrial structure transformations and their resulting carbon emissions in the Xuzhou Metropolitan Area from 2000 to 2014, with a focus on their relationships and driving factors. Our research indicates that carbon emission intensity from industrial structures in the Xuzhou Metropolitan Area at first showed an increasing trend, which then decreased. Furthermore, the relationship between emissions and industrial economic growth has been trending toward absolute decoupling. From the perspective of the center-periphery, the Xuzhou Metropolitan Area formed a concentric pattern, where both progress towards low emissions and the level of technological advancement gradually diminished from the center to the periphery. In terms of variation across provinces, the ISCB index in the eastern Henan has decreased the slowest, followed by the southern Shandong and the northern Anhui, with the northern Jiangsu ranking last. During this period, resource- and labor- intensive industries were the primary growth industries in the northern Anhui and the eastern Henan, while labor-intensive industries dominated the southern Shandong and capital-intensive industries dominated the northern Jiangsu. In terms of city types, the spatial pattern for industrial structure indicates that recession resource-based cities had higher carbon emission intensities than mature resource-based cities, followed by non-resource-based cities and regenerative resource-based cities. Generally, the industrial structure in the Xuzhou Metropolitan Area has transformed from being resource-intensive to capital-intensive, and has been trending toward technology-intensive as resource availability has been exploited to exhaustion and then been regenerated. Industrial structure has been the leading factor causing heterogeneity of carbon emission intensities between metropolitan cities. Therefore, the key to optimizing the industrial structure and layout of metropolitan areas is to promote industrial structure transformation and improve the system controlling collaborative industrial development between cities.     

Spatial-temporal Heterogeneity of Industrial Structure Transformation and Carbon Emission Effects in Xuzhou Metropolitan Area

Employing decoupling index and industrial structure characteristic bias index methods, this study analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics of industrial structure transformations and their resulting carbon emissions in the Xuzhou Metropolitan Area from 2000 to 2014, with a focus on their relationships and driving factors. Our research indicates that carbon emission intensity from industrial structures in the Xuzhou Metropolitan Area at first showed an increasing trend, which then decreased. Furthermore, the relationship between emissions and industrial economic growth has been trending toward absolute decoupling. From the perspective of the center-periphery, the Xuzhou Metropolitan Area formed a concentric pattern, where both progress towards low emissions and the level of technological advancement gradually diminished from the center to the periphery. In terms of variation across provinces, the ISCB index in the eastern Henan has decreased the slowest, followed by the southern Shandong and the northern Anhui, with the northern Jiangsu ranking last. During this period, resource-and labor-intensive industries were the primary growth industries in the northern Anhui and the eastern Henan, while labor-intensive industries dominated the southern Shandong and capital-intensive industries dominated the northern Jiangsu. In terms of city types, the spatial pattern for industrial structure indicates that recession resource-based cities had higher carbon emission intensities than mature resource-based cities, followed by non-resource-based cities and regenerative resource-based cities. Generally, the industrial structure in the Xuzhou Metropolitan Area has transformed from being resource-intensive to capital-intensive, and has been trending toward technology-intensive as resource availability has been exploited to exhaustion and then been regenerated. Industrial structure has been the leading factor causing heterogeneity of carbon emission intensities between metropolitan cities. Therefore, the key to optimizing the industrial structure and layout of metropolitan areas is to promote industrial structure transformation and improve the system controlling collaborative industrial development between cities.     

Relationship between built environment,socio-economic factors and carbon emissions from shopping trip in Shenyang City,China

Promoting active travel behavior and decreasing transport-related carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions have become a priority in many Chinese cities experiencing rapid urban sprawl and greater automobile dependence. However, there are few studies that holistically examine the physical and social factors associated with travel CO₂ emissions. Using a survey of 1525 shoppers conducted in Shenyang, China, this study estimated shopping-related travel CO₂ emissions and examined how the built environment and individual socioeconomic characteristics contribute to shopping travel behavior and associated CO₂ emissions. We found that, firstly, private car trips generate nearly eight times more carbon emissions than shopping trips using public transport, on average. Second, there was significant spatial autocorrelation with CO₂ emissions per trip, and the highest carbon emissions were clustered in the inner suburbs and between the first and second circumferential roads. Third, shopping travel CO₂ emissions per trip were negatively correlated with several built environment features including population density, the quantity of public transport stations, road density, and shop density. They were also found to be significantly related to the individual socio-economic characteristics of car ownership, employment status, and education level using a multinomial logistic regression model. These empirical findings have important policy implications, assisting in the development of measures that contribute to the sustainability of urban transportation and meet carbon mitigation targets.     

Effects of Seawater Acidification on Early Development of Clam Cyclina sinensis

Anthropogenic emission of atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_2) has led to a rapid increase in atmospheric CO_2 concentration. Increasing atmospheric CO_2 can reduce seawater pH and carbonate ions, which may adversely affect the survival of the larvae of calcareous animals. Cyclina sinensis is a commercially and ecologically important species in several Asian countries. Living in coast shallow waters, this species has experienced the coastal environmental changes frequently throughout its life cycle. In this study, we simulated possible future seawater pH values including 8.2, 7.8 and 7.4 and examined the effects of ocean acidification on the early development of C. sinensis. Clam embryos were incubated for 48 h(2 d) in control and high-CO_2 seawater to compare embryogenesis, larval growth and swimming behavior. Fertilization rate was quite sensitive to pH, and moderate acidification could induce a significant decrease in fertilization rate. However, only extreme acidification could bring significant negative effect to hatching rate, body size, and average path velocity of trochophora. Moreover, with seawater acidification, C. sinensis needs much more time to reach the same developmental stage, which increases the risk of larva survival. Together with recent studies demonstrating negative impacts of high CO_2 on fertilization and larva swimming behavior, the results imply a future decrease of C. sinensis populations in oceans if its acclimation to the predicted environmental alteration does not occur.     

Impact of regional development on carbon emission: Empirical evidence across countries

Global warming is recently an urgent issue worldwide. The increase of carbon emissions induced by human economic activi- ties has become a major driving force behind global climate change. Thus, as a matter of social responsibility, reasonable carbon con- straints should be implemented to ensure environmental security and sustainable development for every country. Based on a summary of studies that examined the relationship between carbon emissions and regional development, this paper shows that human activity-led carbon emission is caused by the combination of several influencing factors, including population size, income level, and technical pro- gress. Thus, a quantitative model derived from IPAT-ImPACT-Kaya series and STIRPAT models was established. Empirical analysis using multivariate nonlinear regression demonstrated that the origins of growing global carbon emission included the increasing influ- encing elasticity of the population size and the declining negative effect of technical progress. Meanwhile, in context of classification of country groups at different income levels, according to the comparison of fluctuating patterns of the influencing elasticity, technical progress was found as the main factor influencing carbon emission levels in high-income countries, and population size might he the controlling factor in middle-income countries. However, for low-income countries, the nonlinear relationship between carbon emission and its influencing factors was not significant, whereas population growth was identified as an important potential driving force in future carbon emissions. This study can therefore provide a reference for the formulation of policies on carbon constraints, especially to de- velop more efficient carbon mitigating policies for countries at different income levels.