Relationships between long-term ocean warming,marine heat waves and primary production in the New Zealand region

ABSTRACT

We test the paradigm that in a future warmer ocean, shallower winter mixing will lead to less net primary production (NPP), by investigating whether warming between 2002 and 2018 led to changes in NPP in the Tasman Sea/New Zealand region. The 2002–18 trend in sea surface temperature (SST) was positive over most of the region, and was driven by increasingly warmer summers and marine heat waves (MHWs) rather than year-round warming. In contrast, the trends in sea surface chlorophyll (SSC) and NPP were generally positive over the Subtropical Front (STF) and in a subtropical band north-east of New Zealand, but negative elsewhere. Regressions between SSC and SST, and between spring SSC and the coldest SST during the preceding winter, show similar spatial patterns to the SSC trend. We suggest these findings reflect different ecosystem functioning in the subtropical and subantarctic biomes that are separated by the STF. We conclude that any future warming is likely to lead to less production in the Tasman Sea, but more production over the STF. Three recent MHWs had different impacts on production, but generally led to less surface biomass north of the STF and more biomass south of the front.     

Ocean temperature change around New Zealand over the last 36 years

Ocean temperature changes around New Zealand are estimated from satellite sea surface temperature (SST) products since 1981, two high resolution expendable bathythermograph transects (HRXBT) since 1986 and 1991, and Argo data since 2006. The datasets agree well where they overlap. Significant surface warming is found in subtropical waters. Greatest warming is east of Australia and in the central Pacific. All NZ coastal waters are warming, with strongest warming east of Wairarapa and weakest between East Cape and North Cape. Temperature changes are surface intensified, extending to ～200 m in the northeast and at least 850 m in the eastern Tasman. Significant interannual variability is coherent over a large area of ocean north of the Subtropical Front and modulates extreme events. NZ air temperatures are highly correlated at interannual timescales with SSTs over a broad region of ocean north of the Subtropical Front from the eastern Tasman to east of the dateline.     

Hydrological observations across the tropical convergence north of New Zealand

Hydrological observations, mainly sea surface temperature measurements, are presented for the triangular region bounded by New Zealand, New Caledonia, and Western Samoa. The existence of the Tropical Convergence and the general seasonal variation of the surface parameters are discussed. A secondary convergence lying between the Subtropical Convergence and the Tropical Convergence is proposed and its relationship to the general surface circulation of the Tasman, Sea is examined.     

Variability of the water temperature in the western Wadden Sea on tidal to centennial time scales

Daily observations of the sea surface temperature in the Marsdiep tidal inlet, which connects the shallow Dutch western Wadden Sea with the deeper North Sea, already started in the summer of 1860, over 140 years ago. Since the year 2000 the sampling frequency has strongly increased because of the use of electronic sensors and data logging by computer. Analysis of these temperature data has revealed variations with time scales from tidal, daily, seasonal, inter-annual, to centennial. The tidal temperature variations are generated by advection of the seasonally varying temperature gradient between Wadden Sea and North Sea, while the daily variations are mainly caused by the daily variation of solar radiation. The seasonal variation in sea surface temperature only lags a few days behind the coastal surface air temperature, contrary to the sea surface temperature in the deeper nearby North Sea, which is delayed with about 1 month. The North Atlantic Oscillation index has been used as large-scale proxy for the atmospheric forcing of the Wadden Sea temperature. Only for the winter and spring a significant correlation is found between temperature and the winter index. However, this correlation is so strong that also the annual mean temperature is correlated significantly with the North Atlantic Oscillation. At longer time scales, from decadal to centennial, also large temperature variations are observed, of the order of 1.5 °C. However, these are not related to long-term changes of the North Atlantic oscillation. These long-term temperature changes involve a cooling of about 1.5 °C in the first 30 years of the record and a similar warming in the last 25 years. In between, these long-term changes were smaller and more irregular. Similar conclusions can also be applied to individual seasons as well as to the date of the onset of spring.     

Variability of the water temperature in the western Wadden Sea on tidal to centennial time scales

Daily observations of the sea surface temperature in the Marsdiep tidal inlet, which connects the shallow Dutch western Wadden Sea with the deeper North Sea, already started in the summer of 1860, over 140 years ago. Since the year 2000 the sampling frequency has strongly increased because of the use of electronic sensors and data logging by computer. Analysis of these temperature data has revealed variations with time scales from tidal, daily, seasonal, inter-annual, to centennial. The tidal temperature variations are generated by advection of the seasonally varying temperature gradient between Wadden Sea and North Sea, while the daily variations are mainly caused by the daily variation of solar radiation. The seasonal variation in sea surface temperature only lags a few days behind the coastal surface air temperature, contrary to the sea surface temperature in the deeper nearby North Sea, which is delayed with about 1 month. The North Atlantic Oscillation index has been used as large-scale proxy for the atmospheric forcing of the Wadden Sea temperature. Only for the winter and spring a significant correlation is found between temperature and the winter index. However, this correlation is so strong that also the annual mean temperature is correlated significantly with the North Atlantic Oscillation. At longer time scales, from decadal to centennial, also large temperature variations are observed, of the order of 1.5 °C. However, these are not related to long-term changes of the North Atlantic oscillation. These long-term temperature changes involve a cooling of about 1.5 °C in the first 30 years of the record and a similar warming in the last 25 years. In between, these long-term changes were smaller and more irregular. Similar conclusions can also be applied to individual seasons as well as to the date of the onset of spring.     

20世纪太平洋海温变化中人为因子与自然因子贡献的模拟研究

基于中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学国家重点实验室(LASG/IAP)发展的气候系统模式FGOALS_gl对20世纪太平洋海温变化的模拟,讨论了自然因子和人为因子对20世纪太平洋海温变化的相对贡献。观测资料表明,20世纪太平洋平均的SST变化主要分为3个时段:20世纪上半叶的增暖,40—70年代的微弱变冷,70年代之后的迅速增暖。20世纪太平洋SST变化的主导模态是全海盆尺度的振荡上升模态,其次为PDO振荡型,在70年代末PDO存在明显的年代际转型。通过全强迫试验、自然强迫试验、控制试验对上述现象进行归因分析,结果表明,人为因子和内部变率都对第一次增暖有贡献,而人类活动(主要是温室气体的增加)是70年代之后太平洋SST迅速增暖的主要原因。分区域来看,在两个增暖时段中,影响黑潮延伸体区SST变化的主要是自然因子和内部变率,影响其它海域SST变化的则主要是人为因子。全强迫试验可以较好的模拟出前两个模态的空间分布及时间序列。在没有人为因子的影响下,PDO成为太平洋海温变化的主导模态,其年代际转变发生在60年代中期,意味着人为因子是全海盆振荡增暖的主导原因,并且它使得年代际转型滞后了10a。因此,自然因子是导致SST年代际转型中的主导因子,人为因子有"调谐"作用。     

Temporal and spatial variabilities of Japan Sea surface temperature and atmospheric forcings

In this study, we used the National Centers for Environmental Prediction monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and surface air temperature (SAT) data during 1982–1994 and the National Center for Atmospheric Research surface wind stress curl data during 1982–1989 to investigate the Japan Sea SST temporal and spatial variabilities and their relations to atmospheric forcing. First, we found an asymmetry in the correlation coefficients between SST and wind stress curl, which implies that the SST variability at the scales of the order of one month is largely due to atmospheric forcing. Second, we performed three analyses on the data fields: annual mean, composite analysis to obtain the monthly anomaly relative to the annual mean, and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis on the residue data relative to the summation of the annual mean and the monthly anomaly. The first EOF mode of SST accounts for 59.9% of the variance and represents the Subpolar Front. The temporal variation of the first EOF mode implies that the deep Japan Sea could be cooler in cold seasons (November–April) of 1984–1987. Third, we computed cross-correlation coefficients among various principal components and found that the atmospheric warming/cooling is the key factor causing intra-seasonal and interannual SST variabilities.     

ENSO to multi-decadal time scale changes in East Australian Current transports and Fort Denison sea level: Oceanic Rossby waves as the connecting mechanism

The connection between East Australian Current (EAC) transport variability and Australia’s east coast sea level has received little treatment in the literature. This is due in part to the complex interacting physical processes operating in the coastal zone combined with the sparsity of observations available to improve our understanding of these possible connections. This study demonstrates a statistically significant (at the >90% level) relationship between interannual to decadal time scale variations in observed estimates of the EAC transport changes and east coast sea level measured at the high-quality, long record Fort Denison tide-gauge in Sydney Harbour, Australia (33°51′18″S, 151°13′32″E). We further demonstrate, using a linear reduced-gravity ocean model, that ENSO to decadal time-scale variations and the ocean-adjusted multi-decadal trend (approx. 1 cm/decade) in observed sea level at Fort Denison are strongly connected to modulations of EAC transports by incoming westward propagating oceanic Rossby waves. We show that EAC transport and Fort Denison sea level vary in a manner expected from both Tasman Sea generated Rossby waves, which account for the interannual and multi-annual variability, and remotely forced (from east of New Zealand) Rossby wave connections through the mid-latitudes, accounting for the ocean-adjusted multi-decadal trend observed at the New South Wales coast - with the regional-Tasman Sea forcing explaining the greatest overall proportion of EAC transport and sea-level variances.     

20世纪90年代后期南海上层海温变化趋势的转折

In this paper, the interdecadal variability of upper-ocean temperature in the South China Sea(SCS) is investigated based on several objectively analyzed data sets and two reanalysis data sets. The trends of the SCS sea surface temperature(SST) have changed from warming to cooling since the late 1990 s. A heat budget analysis suggests that the warming of the surface mixed layer during 1984–1999 is primarily attributed to the horizontal heat advection and the decrease of upward long wave radiation, with the net surface heat flux playing a damping role due to the increase of upward latent and sensible heat fluxes. On the other hand, the cooling of the surface mixed layer during 2000–2009 is broadly controlled by net surface heat flux, with the radiation flux playing the dominant role. A possible mechanism is explored that the variation of a sea level pressure(SLP) over the North Pacific Ocean may change the prevailing winds over the SCS, which contributes to the change of the SST in the SCS through the horizontal heat advection and heat fluxes.     

南大西洋副热带偶极子的年际变化

南大西洋副热带偶极子(South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole;SASD)为南大西洋海洋与大气相互作用的主要模态。它的空间型为海表面温度异常呈现东北-西南偶极子分布。当SASD指数大于1,为SASD正事件,小于-1,为负事件。根据1960-2016年HadISST(Hadley Center Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature)数据,本文鉴别出57年中共发生6次正事件和9次负事件。SASD存在显著的5~8年周期的年际变化特征。本文进一步利用1992-2016年ECCO2(Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean,PhaseⅡ)模式数据,根据温度倾向方程分别诊断了SASD西南极和东北极的混合层温度变化。诊断结果表明,SASD的年际变化主要来自于表面热力强迫项的年际变化。考虑到表面热力强迫项主要由短波辐射项控制,SASD的年际变化最终来源于短波辐射项的年际变化。     

黄海在有无潮作用下对“布拉万”不同响应的数值模拟研究

黄海是典型的强潮驱动的陆架浅海。为了研究黄海对台风的响应特点,本文利用区域海洋模式(Regional Ocean Modeling Systems,ROMS)分别模拟了在有潮和无潮作用下黄海对台风"布拉万"的响应过程。结果表明,不管潮存在与否,"布拉万"经过黄海后都引起了海表面降温和流速的近惯性振荡响应,这种响应主要分布于黄海中部较深区域,带通滤波提取的近惯性流速具有垂向第一模态特征。同时,研究发现强背景潮流能显著地影响黄海对"布拉万"的响应过程。主要结论如下:一方面,由于潮的存在,近岸垂向混合均匀的较暖水体与远岸较冷水体之间会形成潮混合温度锋面,"布拉万"过后,暖水发生了明显的离岸扩张,尽管路径右侧的混合层降温更显著,但是左侧即黄海西岸的暖水扩张更明显;另一方面,潮的存在减弱了布拉万产生的近惯性振荡响应,半日潮流在黄海仍然占据主导地位。在混合层中潮流的作用减弱了"布拉万"产生的近惯性能量,但也使其更易穿过跃层传入黄海内部。     

北极和南极表面温度对中低纬度海洋热强迫的响应

利用耦合了平板海洋模型的全球气候模式进行了大量的格林函数实验,以探究两极地区对于施加在中低纬度海域的热强迫的气候响应。结果表明,北极地区的气候不仅受到距离较近的北太平洋与北大西洋的影响,远离北极的热带太平洋以及南太平洋也对其气候有显著的影响,南极地区的气候则主要是受到邻近的南大洋的影响。通过经验正交函数法的进一步分析发现,北极响应最显著的区域包括波弗特海(Beaufort Sea)、拉普捷夫海(Laptev Sea)以及北极中心区附近;南极地区的响应主要集中在别林斯高晋海(Bellinsgauzen Sea)区域。另外,利用温度归因法对辐射反馈过程和大气能量输运分解发现,北极地区表面温度的响应主要是受到了反照率反馈以及垂直递减率反馈的影响,而南极地区的响应则主要是反照率反馈发挥了作用。     

海冰消融背景下北极增温的季节差异及其原因探讨

运用哈德莱中心第一套海冰覆盖率(HadISST1)、欧洲中心(ERA_Interim)的温度以及NCEP第一套地表感热通量、潜热通量等资料,研究了1979—2011年33a来北极海冰消融的季节特点和空间特征,并从反照率——温度正反馈与地表感热通量、潜热通量等方面分析了海冰减少对北极增温影响的季节差异。结果表明,北极海冰在秋季和夏季的减少范围明显大于冬季和春季,而北极地表升温却在秋季和冬季最显著,夏季最为微弱,且夏季的增温趋势廓线也与秋冬季显著不同。这主要是因为夏季是融冰季,海冰融化将吸收潜热。且此时北极低空大气温度高于海表温度,海水相当于大气的冷源。随着海冰的消融,更多的热量由大气传入海洋用于融冰和加热上层海水,这使得夏季的低空大气不能显著升温。而在秋冬季,海冰凝结释放潜热,且此时低空大气温度远低于海水温度,海冰的减少使得海水将更多热量释放到大气中导致低空大气显著增暖。海水对大气的这种延迟放热机制是北极低空在夏季增温不显著而在秋冬季增温显著的主要原因。此外,秋冬季的海冰减少与北极近地面升温具有非常一致的空间分布,北冰洋东南边缘和巴伦支海北部分别是秋季和冬季海气相互作用的关键区域。     

Atmospheric forcing of the southeast Bering Sea Shelf during 1995–99 in the context of a 40-year historical record

The atmospheric forcing of the Bering Sea over its eastern shelf is estimated using the 40-year record of daily data from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. This data set includes estimates of the processes responsible for the atmospheric forcing, namely the surface fluxes of momentum, sensible and latent heat, and longwave and shortwave radiation, and therefore permits quantifying effects that previously could be inferred only from the large-scale nature of the flow. The forcing in 1995–1999 is described in detail using daily time series; historical context for these results is provided with seasonal averages for the years 1959–1999.The analysis for winter concentrates on aspects related to the formation and advection of sea ice. Results indicate that the presence of sea ice is strongly related to the net surface-heat fluxes as well as the cross-shelf component of the wind. The 40-year record lacks any discernible long-term trend in the winter forcing and response. There was a notably cold period in the early to middle 1970s, and a warm period from the late 1970s into the early 1980s, but conditions during the 1990s are similar to those in the late 1950s and 1960s.The analysis for the warm season focuses on the mechanisms responsible for the variability in SST warming. Much of the intraseasonal and interannual variability in this warming can be attributed to variations in the downward shortwave radiation (solar heating). The 40-year record does indicate a long-term trend toward increased solar heating, and reduced surface latent-heat fluxes (evaporative cooling). These changes have led to August SSTs in the 1990s that are roughly 1°C warmer than in the 1960s.     

Vertical characteristics revealed by biweekly and synoptic variability of upper sea temperature in the northern South China Sea

On the basis of the analysis of the sea temperature data that are observed from the three automatic temperature line acquisition sysem mooring buoys deployed in the central South China Sea (SCS) during South China Sea monsoon experiment, vertical features of biweekly and synoptic variability are discussed. There are five vertical modes, that is, subsurface temperature variability is in phase with,out of phase with, leads to, lags the surface temperature variability, and at depths within the subsurface layer the upper and lower temperature variations are out of phase. The formation of these vertical modes is related to the property of low-level atmospheric forcing and to the background in atmosphere and ocean. Wind stress curl is the main driving factor in forming Modes 1 and 3, and wind stresses in forming Modes 2 and 4.     

塔斯曼海构造特征及其演化过程研究

塔斯曼海位于西南太平洋地区,处于印度-澳大利亚板块和西兰板块之间,大地构造背景复杂。该地区是全球油气资源勘探的重点海域之一,但是国内对该地区的研究相当匮乏。本文根据塔斯曼海海域的自由空气重力异常对塔斯曼海海域的构造单元进行了划分,前人关于塔斯曼海的研究主要集中在Resolution海岭北部,我们认为塔斯曼海的范围应包括Resolution海岭以南,麦夸里海岭以西,塔斯曼断裂带以东的区域（即南部次盆）。结果显示,塔斯曼海域及邻区包括3个一级构造单元:东澳大利亚陆缘、西兰板块和塔斯曼海盆,且塔斯曼海盆可进一步划分为西部次盆、东部次盆和南部次盆。本文基于塔斯曼海域90 Ma以来的洋壳年龄数据编制了构造演化图,将塔斯曼海的形成演化过程分为4个阶段:（1）中生代陆内裂谷期（90~83 Ma BP）;（2）塔斯曼海扩张阶段（83~61 Ma BP）;（3）塔斯曼海北部扩张停止阶段（61~52 Ma BP）;（4）塔斯曼海南部改造阶段（52 Ma BP至今）。     

不同辐射背景下大西洋热盐环流下沉区混合层深度变化

基于政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC)4种最新辐射强迫情景,利用ECHAM5/MPI-OM(European Centre Hamburg Model 5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model)气候模式输出的1850—2300年逐月混合层深度、海表面温度、海表面盐度数据,分析大西洋热盐环流下沉区混合层深度的变化情况。结果表明:随辐射强迫增加,热盐环流下沉区混合层深度下降,混合层深度振荡周期在格陵兰-冰岛-挪威海(Greenland Sea–Iceland Sea–Norwegian Sea,GIN)海域减小,在拉布拉多海(Labrador Sea,LAB)海域变化不大;与GIN海域相比,LAB海域混合层深度对辐射强迫变化更敏感;两海区温度对混合层深度的影响时间较长,混合层深度对盐度的变化反应迅速;混合层深度变化的主导因素在LAB海域中为盐度,而在GIN海域,低辐射强迫下温度主导混合层深度变化,中高辐射强迫下温度与盐度共同起主导作用。     

Climate change projections for the surface ocean around New Zealand

The future status of the surface ocean around New Zealand was projected using two Earth System Models and four emission scenarios. By 2100 mean changes are largest under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), with a +2.5°C increase in sea surface temperature, and decreases in surface mixed layer depth (15%), macronutrients (7.5–20%), primary production (4.5%) and particle flux (12%). Largest macronutrient declines occur in the eastern Chatham Rise and subantarctic waters to the south, whereas dissolved iron increases in subtropical waters. Surface pH projections, validated against subantarctic time-series data, indicate a 0.335 decline to ～7.77 by 2100. However, projected pH is sensitive to future CO₂ emissions, remaining within the current range under RCP2.6, but decreasing below it by 2040 with all other scenarios. Sub-regions vulnerable to climate change include the Chatham Rise, polar waters south of 50°S, and subtropical waters north of New Zealand, whereas the central Tasman Sea is least affected.     

Recent improvements to the physical model of the Bohai Sea,the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea Operational Oceano-graphy Forecasting System

In order to satisfy the increasing demand for the marine forecasting capacity, the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea Operational Oceanography Forecasting System (BYEOFS) has been upgraded and improved to Version 2.0. Based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), a series of comparative experiments were conducted during the improvement process, including correcting topography, changing sea surface atmospheric forcing mode, adjusting open boundary conditions, and considering atmospheric pressure correction. (1) After the topography correction, the volume transport and meridional velocity maximum of Yellow Sea Warm Current increase obviously and the unreasonable bending of its axis around 36.1°N, 123.5°E disappears. (2) After the change of sea surface forcing mode, an effective negative feedback mechanism is formed between predicted sea surface temperature (SST) by the ocean model and sea surface radiation fluxes fields. The simulation errors of SST decreased significantly, and the annual average of root-mean-square error (RMSE) decreased by about 18％. (3) The change of the eastern lateral boundary condition of baroclinic velocity from mixed Radiation-Nudging to Clamped makes the unreasonable westward current in Tsushima Strait disappear. (4) The adding of mean sea level pressure correction option which forms the mean sea level gradient from the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea to the western Pacific in winter and autumn is helpful to increasing the fluctuation of SLA and outflow of the Yellow Sea when the cold high air pressure system controls the Yellow Sea area.     

台风“布拉万”过境黄海时的异常增温事件研究

海洋对台风的响应通常表现为海表温度的降低,然而,出现在2012年8月的台风"布拉万"在经过黄海时却引起朝鲜半岛木浦沿岸海域海表的增温(而非降温),且增温幅度达4.2°C。本研究详细分析了此次异常事件的时空特征,并探讨了其可能的成因。结果发现,此次事件的产生和黄海表层冷水斑块(Surface Cold Patch,SCP)存在密切关系,并恰好出现在木浦SCP所在位置。上升流和潮混合是木浦SCP的两大形成机制,此次增温事件主要是台风"布拉万"通过抑制其生成机制之一的上升流而导致降温不足之故。具体而言,台风"布拉万"过境时位于木浦SCP的左侧,其上的北向风应力带来向岸的Ekman输运,造成外围暖水在木浦SCP地区堆积,从而抑制了该地区原本的上升流(甚至变为下降流)。