Regional scenarios of sea level rise and impacts on Basque (Bay of Biscay) coastal habitats,throughout the 21st century

Global climate models have predicted a rise on mean sea level of between 0.18 m and 0.59 m by the end of the 21st Century, with high regional variability. The objectives of this study are to estimate sea level changes in the Bay of Biscay during this century, and to assess the impacts of any change on Basque coastal habitats and infrastructures. Hence, ocean temperature projections for three climate scenarios, provided by several atmosphere–ocean coupled general climate models, have been extracted for the Bay of Biscay; these are used to estimate thermosteric sea level variations. The results show that, from 2001 to 2099, sea level within the Bay of Biscay will increase by between 28.5 and 48.7 cm, as a result of regional thermal expansion and global ice-melting, under scenarios A1B and A2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A high-resolution digital terrain model, extracted from LiDAR, data was used to evaluate the potential impact of the estimated sea level rise to 9 coastal and estuarine habitats: sandy beaches and muds, vegetated dunes, shingle beaches, sea cliffs and supralittoral rock, wetlands and saltmarshes, terrestrial habitats, artificial land, piers, and water surfaces. The projected sea level rise of 48.7 cm was added to the high tide level of the coast studied, to generate a flood risk map of the coastal and estuarine areas. The results indicate that 110.8 ha of the supralittoral area will be affected by the end of the 21st Century; these are concentrated within the estuaries, with terrestrial and artificial habitats being the most affected. Sandy beaches are expected to undergo mean shoreline retreats of between 25% and 40%, of their width. The risk assessment of the areas and habitats that will be affected, as a consequence of the sea level rise, is potentially useful for local management to adopt adaptation measures to global climate change.     

Identifying storm impacts on an embayed, high-energy coastline: examples from western Ireland

Large sections of the western Irish coast are characterised by a highly compartmentalised series of headland-embayment cells in which sand and gravel beaches are backed by large vegetated dune systems. Exposure to modally high-energy swell renders most of these beaches dissipative in character. A mesotidal range (c. 3.5–4.5 m) exists along much of the coast. Analysis of instrumental wind records from three locations permitted the identification of a variety of storm types and the construction of storm catalogues. Few individual storms were recorded at all three stations indicating a lack of regional consistency in storm record. Of the total storms recorded, only a small percentage are potentially damaging (onshore directed) and even fewer span a high tide and thus potentially induce a measurable morphological response at the coast.

Through a combination of historical records, meteorological records, field observations and wave modelling we attempt to assess the impact of storms. Quantifiable records of coastal morphology (maps, air photos and beach profiles) are few in number and do not generally record responses that may be definitely attributed to specific storms. Numerical wave simulations and observations at a variety of sites on the west Irish coast, however, provide insights into instantaneous and medium term (decadal) storm responses in such systems.

We argue that beaches and dunes that are attuned to modally high-energy regimes require extreme storms to cause significant morphological impact. The varying orientation of beaches, a spatially nonuniform storm catalogue and the need for a storm to occur at high water to produce measurable change, impart site-specific storm susceptibility to these embayments. Furthermore, we argue that long-period wave energy attenuation across dissipative shorefaces and beaches reduces coastal response to distant storms whereas short-period, locally generated wind waves are more likely to cause major dune and beach erosion as they arrive at the shoreline unrefracted.

This apparently variable response of beach and dune systems to storm forcing at a decadal scale over a coastline length of 200 km urges caution in generalising regarding regional-scale coastal responses to climatic change.     

数字摄影测量与陆地卫星遥感研究海岸动态变化

陆地卫星自20世纪70年代初发射以来即用于岸线动态的研究，SPOT卫星资料的利用更增加了该类研究的精度， Radarsat影像由于其对水陆界线的敏感而被用于海岸带制图；航空摄影影像由于其比例尺大，空间分辦率高，成像时间可以人为控制，便于低潮时海滩大比例尺制图等优点而被广为利用。自20世纪三四十年代以来，已经有了许多海滩的航空照片，据此可以获得较长系列的海滩变化信息。     

珠江口附近海域波浪场的数值计算与特征分析

本文以WRF模式输出结果作为风场驱动条件,采用SWAN和WAVEWATCHIII相嵌套的方法,对珠江口附近海域进行20年(1991-2010年)的波浪场数值计算。根据计算结果,分析了珠江口海域波高和周期的空间、时间变化特征。结果显示:珠江入海口及近岸Hs较小,外海Hs较大,大部分海域年均Hs在0.4m以上;珠江口附近海域和近海地区年均Te偏小,在2s^3s之间,外海最大可达5s。珠江海域有效波高(Hs)的季节分布呈现出春夏季较小,秋冬季较大的特点。从概率学角度分别统计20年中前5%和10%的Hs及Te,可知:珠江口近海区域Hs,5%在1~2m,大万山群岛处可达Hs,5%2m;在珠江口附近Hs,10%为1.5m,万山海域Hs,10%在2.5m以上;计算海域Te,5%和Te,10%多在4s以上。     

全球变化影响下青岛海岸带地理环境的演变

在全球变化的影响下,近50多年来青岛海岸带地区的地理环境要素发生了许多超常的变化。其中,年平均气温1991-2002年比20世纪50年代上升了0．94℃,同期最冷月1月平均气温上升了2．18℃,≥10℃的天数由每年207．6d增至218．5d,近海年平均海水温度在20世纪60年代为13．45℃,而1991-2002年为14．20℃,上升了0．75℃。海岸沙滩侵蚀加剧,20世纪90年代以来灵山湾每年蚀退达7m;胶州湾面积由1952年的559km。缩减为2002年的382km^2;滨海漏湖湿地几乎全部消失。由于海岸带气候和水温的变暖使研究区动植物群落发生变化,如茶树从南方引中成功并形成产业,一些本来在长江三角洲地区越冬的鸟类（如大天鹅）已迁至山东半岛越冬;某些生活在温暖海洋中的海洋动物也频现青岛。     

Shoreline change detection using DSAS technique: Case of North Sinai coast,Egypt

This study focuses on the shoreline change detection along the North Sinai coast in Egypt using geographic information system and digital shoreline analysis system (DSAS) during the elapsed period from 1989 to 2016. The measurement of shoreline variation is mainly described for three zones: zone I, El-Tinah plain bay; zone II, El-Bardawil Lake; zone III, El-Arish valley. The rates of shoreline changes in the form of erosion and accretion patterns are automatically quantified by four statistical parameters functioned in DSAS namely endpoint rate, net shoreline movement, linear regression rate (LRR), and least median of squares. LRR results elucidate that the western seaside of El-Tinah plain bay has experienced an extremely dynamic feature with an average erosion rate of ?8.17?m/year. The littoral drifts have been driven by eastward alongshore currents toward the east side of the bay to be accreted with an average rate of +4.28?m/year. Moreover, the shoreline has progressed west of El-Bardawil inlet (1), El-Bardawil inlet (2), and El-Arish harbor. Subsequently, the corresponding average beach growth rates are found to be +2.7, +8.5, and +6.5?m/year, respectively. In contrast, the shoreline on the down-drift side to the east has negatively retreated, and the corresponding beaches have regressed at rates of ?4.5, ?8.65, and ?2.9?m/year, respectively.     

热带气旋前进方向两侧海滩风暴效应差异研究--以海滩对0307号台风"伊布都"的响应为例

在0307号台风“伊布都”(Imbudo)袭击华南沿海前后,对相距约300km的高栏岛飞沙湾(位于气旋前进方向右侧)和水东港下大海(位于气旋前进方向左侧)的固定海滩剖面地形及滩面沉积物进行了对比调查。调查结果表明,右侧海滩地形受台风暴浪冲击发生剧烈变化：后滨陆侧堆积,后滨向海侧及前滨滩面侵蚀(单宽侵蚀量达55m^3／m,平均海面(MSL)位置蚀退13m,岸线位置蚀退5m),以致剖面类型由滩肩式断面向沙坝式断面转变,表现出了海滩对台风做出快速响应;而左侧海滩剖面地形基本保持原状,虽也略呈侵蚀,但冲淤变化不大,表现为对台风做出迟缓响应。同时,从动力、滨海输沙、滩面沉积物变化和海岸地貌等方面对两侧海滩明显差异的风暴效应的机制进行了探讨。     

Determination of wave–shoreline dynamics on a macrotidal gravel beach using Canonical Correlation Analysis

This paper describes the application of Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) to derive forcing–response relations between the wave climate and shoreline position on a macrotidal gravel barrier located in the southwest of the U.K., and to develop a tool to determine shoreline positions from wave records. The data sequences comprise wave climate recorded by a nearshore directional wave buoy and video-derived shorelines over a time span of one year and a half. The hydrodynamic conditions are used to determine the probability density function of wave heights and alongshore energy fluxes. These are then related to shoreline change through a CCA analysis. The CCA analysis identifies patterns of behaviour of the wave conditions and the shoreline position, and the relation between both patterns is found to provide useful information about the beach response to wave action. The analysis shows that the movement of sediment is greater at the southern end of the study area and that there is an immediate shoreline response to the wave action. In the case of coastal management it is more often the case that wave forecasts are available on a routine basis. The ability of the CCA to provide useful estimates of shorelines from wave conditions was tested by using measured waves to calculate the corresponding shoreline position from additional data at the end of the sequences. Shoreline positions determined with the CCA agreed well with the measured ones. Thus, the CCA is found to be a useful tool to determine unknown shoreline positions and support effective coastal management if good quality hydrodynamic and morphological data are available to input into the initial set-up of the technique.     

Mapping Vulnerability and Risk of Ghana's Coastline to Sea Level Rise

Coastal erosion and flooding are major threats to coastal dwellers, and the situation is predicted to worsen as a result of the impacts of climate change and associated sea level rise. In order to identify the level of vulnerability of various sections of Ghana's coastline for planning and future hazard management, a coastal vulnerability index approach was adopted for the creation of the relative vulnerability map. The coastal vulnerability variables used include geomorphology, coastal elevation, geology, local subsidence, sea level rise, shoreline change rates, mean tidal range, mean wave height and population density of the coastal areas. Risk factors were assigned to the various variables, and all the factors were combined to calculate the coastal vulnerability for the coastal front of each administrative district along the coast. The outcome was used to produce a vulnerability index map of coastal districts in Ghana. The results revealed that parts of the central coast and the eastern coasts of Ghana were the most vulnerable. It was identified that about 50% of the 540km shoreline of Ghana is vulnerable. This assessment will facilitate the long-term adaptation planning and hazard mitigation to inform the management of Ghana's coast.     

Google Earth: A New Resource for Shoreline Change Estimation—Case Study from Jaffna Peninsula,Sri Lanka

Abstract

Estimation of shoreline change using satellite images is considered as a very effective method because the coastline is found highly dynamic. This study focuses to develop a methodology to detect shoreline changes using satellite imageries obtained from Google Earth platform. The study was carried out in north-east coastline of Jaffna in Sri Lanka. Shorelines from 2002 to 2017 were delineated on the multi-temporal satellite images in the Google Earth software by visual interpretation and change was detected using Digital Shoreline Analysis System in ArcGIS. Tidal variation, digitizing error, and geometric errors were considered to calculate the uncertainty. Mean End Point Rate, mean Shoreline Change Envelop, mean Net Shoreline Movement, and mean Weighted Linear Regression Rate were used as main shoreline change statistics. Result shows that there is net shoreline accretion of 6.13?±?8.74 m with an annual rate of deposition of 0.5?m/year. During the study period, 76.12% of the observed shoreline is found accreted while the 23.88% of the shoreline is eroded. Mean Uncertainty of the shoreline is 3.73?±?0.59 m. The study revealed that the satellite images from Google Earth platform can be used for time series analysis of shorelines after appropriate corrections.     

绿色海堤的沉积地貌与生态系统动力学原理: 研究综述*

绿色海堤是传统结构工程与海岸生态系统共同组合而成的新型海堤, 用以应对未来海面上升、风暴加剧给低地海岸防护带来的挑战。需解决的问题主要有海岸生态系统消浪过程及生态系统在海堤体系中的配置方式。理论分析、现场观测、物模数模所获结果表明, 海岸生态系统确有显著的消浪功能: 1) 陆架泥区消浪, 其机制以再悬浮和浮泥运动为主, 底部摩擦为次; 2) 潮滩下部的粉砂细砂滩底部摩擦和推移质运动共同造成波能耗散, 而上部的泥滩则以再悬浮和悬沙输运为主; 3) 在盐沼、红树林、海草床等由植被构成的生态系统, 植物通过形态阻力、茎秆运动来阻滞水流、耗散波能, 其效能高于沉积物床面对波能的耗散; 4) 生物礁主要有珊瑚礁和牡蛎礁, 其消能作用主要通过床面摩擦和波浪破碎, 效能较高, 尤其是在风暴期间。生态系统如何成为海堤的有机组成部分, 尤其是侵蚀型海岸的生态位修复和绿色海堤整体设计, 还需进一步研究相关的科学问题: 与硬质工程结合的盐沼-牡蛎礁的适应性生物学; 未来环境变化条件下生态系统的稳定性; 绿色海堤生态系统空间配置及其与风暴事件的时间尺度匹配; 基于均衡剖面理论的海堤形态优化。     

Two centuries of coastal change at Caesarea,Israel: natural processes vs. human intervention

The coast at Caesarea, Israel, has been inhabited almost continuously for the last 2,400 years, and the archeological sites are today a major international tourist attraction. Because the sites straddle the shoreline, they are subject to constant damage by wave action, and must therefore be frequently restored. In this paper, local shoreline migrations over the last 200 years are investigated with the aim of distinguishing between natural and man-made coastal changes. In order to assess these changes accurately, geomorphological and sedimentological data were examined based on detailed beach profile measurements, bathymetric surveys, and grain-size analyses. In addition, series of old aerial photographs, as well as historical topographic maps and nautical charts were consulted. The results show that shoreline changes can be grouped into two main time periods. During the first period from 1862 to 1949 before the expansion of modern settlements, the position of the shoreline changed irregularly by up to 30 m. In the second period from 1949 onward, numerous coastal structures have been erected, and various coastal modifications have been carried out. The evaluation of the data suggests that human interventions have had relatively little effect on the overall position of the shoreline, as displacements ranged only from 5 to 18 m. Thus, coastal changes at Caesarea are predominantly due to natural wave action reflected in the heterogeneous geomorphological and sedimentological characteristics of the shore. This contradicts the common assumption that human activities are always mainly responsible for large-scale shoreline modifications in the region. It is concluded that, in order to implement meaningful mitigating countermeasures, coastal archeological sites need to be individually assessed with respect to the dominant factors causing local coastal change.     

Alongshore Sediment Transport Near Tidal Inlets of Chilika Lagoon; East Coast of India

ABSTRACT

Chilika, a lagoon along the east coast of India, is undergoing transformation due to frequent shoreline change near inlet(s). Shoreline change near inlet includes change in position and shape of inlet, inlet channel length, and spit growth/erosion. These variable features of lagoon inlet(s) critically depend on alongshore sediment transport (LST) and discharge (water and sediment) from the lagoon to the sea. The LST and the processes responsible for sand spit growth/erosion, considered as important attributes of inlet stability, are the subject matter of the present investigation and hence the study assumes importance. The study includes integration of observational and modeling framework. Observations include nearshore wave, bathymetry, beach profile, shoreline and sediment grain size of spits while numerical modeling includes simulation of the wave using MIKE 21 Spectral Wave model and LST simulation using LITtoral DRIFT. The results indicate that the predominant wave directions as S and SSE, which induces round the year south to north alongshore transport with significant seasonal variation in magnitude. The estimated LST closely matches with previous studies near Chilika inlet and for other locations along the Odisha coast. Besides temporal variability, the study reveals spatial variability in alongshore transport near Chilika inlet and considers it as one of the important attributes along with northward spit growth for inlet migration/closure/opening.     

Automatic detection of shoreline change on coastal Ramsar wetlands of Turkey

This research focuses on the shoreline change rate analysis by automatic image analysis techniques using multi-temporal Landsat images and Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) along the coastal Ramsar wetlands of Turkey. Five wetlands were selected for analysis: Yumurtalik Ramsar, the Goksu Ramsar, Kizilirmak and Yesilirmak wetlands and Gediz wetlands. Accretion or erosion processes were observed on multi-temporal satellite images along the areas of interest. Landsat images were geometrically and radiometrically corrected for the quantitative coastline delineation analysis. DSAS (Digital Shoreline Analysis System) was used as a reliable statistical approach for the rate of coastline change. For the detection of coastal change in Aegean part (Gediz wetland) of the study, zonal change detection method was used. As a result of the analysis, in some parts of research area remarkable shoreline changes (more than 765 m withdrawal and −20.68 m/yr erosion in Yumurtalik, 650 m withdrawal and −25.99 m/yr erosion in Goksu, 660 m withdrawal and −16.10 m/yr erosion in Kizilirmak and 640 m withdrawal and −4.91 m/yr erosion in Yesilirmak) were observed for three periods (1989, 1999 and 2009). Wetland in Gediz delta which is 35.57 km² was converted to sea or salt pan for the period 1975 and 2009.     

Reflection of Short Waves

—According to the energy equation,the relation between reflection and energy losses for shortwaves from mild beaches is established and analysed.A reflection coefficient varying with position and en-ergy losses is proposed.Different reflection tests are conducted to check the theoretical analysis.A modi-fied method to estimate the reflection coefficient at varied water depths is suggested based on the linearwave theory.The study indicates that the reflection coefficient from mild beaches has a changing trend forshort waves approaching shoreline.     

Determination and control of longshore sediment transport: A case study

The fishery harbor of Karaburun coastal village is located at the south west coast of the Black Sea. The significant waves coming from north eastern direction cause considerable rate of sediment transport along 4 km sandy beach towards the fishery harbor in the region. The resulting sediment deposition near and inside the harbor entrance prevents the boat traffic and cause a vital problem for the harbor operations. In order to determine the level and reasons of the sediment transport, the long-term observations of shoreline changes, the long-term statistical analysis of wind and wave characteristics in the region, and sediment properties have been performed. The data obtained from observations, measurements and analysis were discussed. The long-term statistics of deep water significant wave heights for each direction was discussed by comparing the results obtained from different data sources and methods. For shoreline evolution, the numerical study using one-line model was applied to describe the shoreline changes with respect to probable wave conditions. Initial shoreline was obtained from the digitized image in 1996 since there was no previous shoreline measurement of the site. The results were compared using the techniques of remote sensing obtained from sequent images using IKONOS and IRS1C/D satellites.     

海口湾人工填海前后冲淤演变数值模拟

为了解近年的人工填海工程主要包括南海明珠项目、葫芦岛、秀英港扩建工程等人工填海工程对海口湾冲淤变化的影响,基于FVCOM海洋数值模型,对研究区人工填海前后潮流场、波浪场及冲淤变化进行了数值模拟。人工填海后,综合各条件下的冲淤情况,海口湾受潮流和波浪共同作用大部分区域处于淤积状态,年淤积量预测值为0.1~1.0m;白沙角等局部区域处于侵蚀状态,年冲刷量预测值为0.1~0.3m;受海口湾人工填海工程的影响,秀英港航道的水动力条件减弱,对通航条件改善有利,需加强航道的水深监测和定时的清淤工作;在南海明珠人工岛南侧波影区泥沙堆积会形成向海的舌状的突出体,其两侧海岸形成侵蚀后退带,需人工补沙等措施以保证岸线稳定。     

Short-Term Morphological and Shoreline Changes at Trinkat Island,Andaman and Nicobar,India, After the 2004 Tsunami

The tsunami waves generated during the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004 devastated the coastal area along Trinkat Island, causing sudden changes to the morphology of the landforms. This study uses a series of satellite images to record the short-term morphological response and shoreline changes as well as the recovery of coastal land after its destruction. Results indicate that the island experienced substantial erosion and a significant reduction in land area. Shoreline erosion is more prevalent than accretion at an average linear regression rate of ～?9 m per year between 2004 and 2013. The major morphological changes at Trinkat Island were observed in coastal inlets, beaches, and bay head-lands. Straight beaches had almost recovered eight years after the tsunami; however, erosion is continually observed in other areas. Our study will help understanding the response and recovery of shorelines in Indian Ocean regions after the 2004 tsunami.     

Assessment and prediction of shoreline change using multi-temporal satellite images and statistics: Case study of Damietta coast,Egypt

The shoreline trajectory of Damietta city, locates at the Northern coast of Egypt, is dramatically subjected to kinematic changes. These variations mainly occur based on the incessant duel hydrodynamic impacts of both wave action and coastal currents. Several types of coastal measures have been applied substantially along the coastal stretch of Damietta to protect shoreline such as detached breakwaters, Jetties, groins, and seawalls. This study is essentially focused on the assessment of shoreline kinematics response due to the existence of these structures during the period from 1990 to 2015. In addition, the future changes of the shoreline at 2020, 2025 and 2035 are predicted using satellite images, Geo-spatial tools and Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) by the meaning of End Point Rate (EPR) and Linear Regression Rate (LRR) methods. Four Landsat images at different periods; TM1990, TM 1999, ETM 2003 and ETM 2015 are used to detect shoreline changes. Three semi-automatic extraction techniques are initially tempted for Landsat ETM 2003 imagery namely; Iso cluster technique, threshold method, and onscreen digitizing method to select the optimal one. Iso cluster technique is used as the optimal technique which achieves the least errors with the corresponding field data in 2003 by value of 0.34. Furthermore, the extraction shoreline change for Damietta coast is extensively measured for three zones: zone (1) the western sector encompassing Damietta port with two jetties; zone (2) the central sector including detached breakwaters; zone (3) the eastern portion of Damietta estuary passing through a seawall. Verification analysis shows that the EPR is the optimum method for shoreline detection with a value of RMSE by 0.27. The results show that, for zone (1), the western shoreline of Damietta port is progressed by a rate of +10.0 m/year. On the other hand, the shoreline on the down drift side at zone (2) has retreated by a rate of -5.0 m/year. While the shoreline behind the detached breakwaters in the central sector has advanced by +12.0 m/year from 1999 to 2003, then decreased gradually until become stable in 2015. For zone (3), alongshore currents have derived the disassembled sandy soil from west to east leaving a highly eroded area by average rate of -78m/year. The results of this study give indication to shoreline trend of near future which should be under consideration in planning of Damietta coastal zone.     

ERA-Interim和ERA5再分析风资料在中国近海的适用性对比研究

全球再分析海面风资料在波浪模拟和风能资源评估等研究中发挥着重要作用，但风场资料种类繁多，且准确性在不同海域差异较大，使用时需要进行适用性分析。本文基于欧洲中期天气预报中心的ERA5和ERA-Interim再分析风场，利用多个站点的实测数据，分析了其在中国近海的适用性，并将再分析风场输入FVCOM-SWAVE波浪模型，对比了它们在常风天和台风天对波浪模拟的效果。结果表明：（1）常风天条件下ERA5和ERA-Interim资料在中国近海表现相似，风速较实测值略偏大，均能基本反映海表面风场变化和平均风速分布，吻合度指标在各站点均超过0.9;(2) ERA5对台风的模拟显著优于ERA-Interim，能较好模拟台风风速结构，对不同台风模拟精度差异大，整体上会低估台风风速；（3）风场质量是造成波浪模拟误差的主要原因之一，ERA5和ERA-Interim均能较好地模拟常海况下的波浪变化情况，而在台风浪的模拟中ERA5更优，“双台风”现象对风速和波浪的模拟准确度影响大。