资源与环境承载力综合评价模型研究

资源与环境承载力的研究对人类社会经济活动意义重大。将资源与环境视为一个复合的生态系统,依据多层次指标体系结构,建立了以资源与环境承载力为目标层的集成指标体系。综合分析各指标间的相互联系,以及集成性指标对准则层指标、准则层指标对目标层的作用,构建了若干个集成指标模型、3个准则层指标模型,以及资源与环境承载力综合指数模型。运用GIS技术,形成了系统化、定量化的分析方法体系,实现了模型在网格单元的运算。研究结果反映了资源与环境承载力空间分布的连续性和渐变性,克服了以行政区域为分析单元的突变性。以山西省阳高县作为研究对象,采用相应技术方法进行资源与环境承载力评价研究,验证结果与实际情况基本吻合,表明了所建立模型和技术方法的合理性和可操作性。     

基于综合承载力的北京市适度人口研究

北京作为中国的政治、经济和文化中心,资源短缺、交通拥堵和生态环境恶化等问题日益严重,确定其适度人口规模,对引导区域人口合理流动和环境保护具有一定的现实意义。本文基于综合承载力,对已有的适度人口模型进行了改进：利用主成分分析法和熵权法确定生态、经济和资源承载系统的权重;经济承载人口测算指标不局限于地区生产总值（GDP）这一单一指标;资源承载人口综合考虑了土地资源和水资源承载力。本文通过综合分析2004-2014年北京各项承载人口和适度人口,结果表明：① 生态承载人口规模在波动中有增长的趋势,由717.38万人上升至753.14万人,一直处于人口超载状态;② 经济承载人口一直处于富余状态,但规模由5297.18万人减少至3802.06万人。第三产业产值所承载的人口对经济承载人口的贡献最大,在2014年达到65.15%;③ 资源承载人口规模处于波动状态,2014年为139.61万人,超载率逐年增加。土地资源承载力对资源承载人口的贡献大于水资源,2014年贡献率达79.91%;④ 北京市适度人口规模从2004年的2031.15万人减少至2014年的1550.67万人,2008年开始出现人口赤字,且人口超载率逐年攀升。经济承载人口对适度人口贡献率维持在80%以上,生态和资源承载人口的贡献率平均值分别为14%和3%。人口资源压力指数在波动中有上升的趋势,从2004年的9.45上升至2014年的15.41,资源约束已经成为阻碍城市发展的主要因素,经济承载力是维持适度人口规模缓慢减小的主要动力。     

基于主成分分析的济宁市环境承载力研究

该文以济宁市环境承载力为研究对象,运用主成分分析法,从影响环境污染状况、环境治理状况、人口状况、经济发展状况、自然资源状况、物耗能耗状况等19个指标中,提取出影响环境承载力动态变化的3个主成分,对济宁市环境承载力年际变化进行了综合评价。结果表明:2006—2010年,济宁市环境承载力呈现逐年上升的趋势。该研究评价结果较好,可以为该地区的可持续开发规划提供理论参考。     

Evaluation and analysis of provincial differences in resources and environment carrying capacity in China

Resources and environment carrying capacity is central to not only regional sustainable development but also major function-oriented zoning. This paper presents an evaluation index system for resources and environment carrying capacity based on four aspects of carrying capacity(i.e., water resources, land resources, the environment, and ecosystems) by using a square deviation decision-making method, and on the basis of above effort evaluates the resources and environment carrying capacity across 31 provincial regions in China(not including Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan regions of China). In addition, this paper evaluates the current state of socio-economic development, and analyzes the spatial distribution of resources and environment pressure. The results showed that distinct spatial differences in resources and environment carrying capacity and pressure across provincial regions. Resources and environment pressure is affected by both comprehensive resources and environment carrying capacity and socio-economic development. Regions subjected to lower degrees of resources and environment pressure will be restricted by resources and environmental problems through future courses of development owing to excessively low carrying capacities. By contrast, regions with higher comprehensive resources and environment carrying capacity will be subjected to excessively high levels of resources and environment pressure because of rapid socio-economic development. Both of resources and environment carrying capacity and pressure must therefore be considered in the allocation of country-binding targets to provincial regions.     

基于区域尺度的城市承载力评价研究——以上海市为例

在城市化带来交通拥堵、生态失衡及环境污染等诸多问题的背景下,开展城市承载力研究,对于保证城市的全面、协调、可持续发展具有重要意义.本文将传统的承载力评价研究方法与互联网大数据下的兴趣点和空间路网数据相结合,建立了上海市承载力评价指标体系.运用信息论中的熵方法,对上海市各区域的承载力进行了评价和分析.结果表明,上海市各地...     

Comprehensive measurement for carrying capacity of resources and environment of city clusters in central China

Studying the carrying capacity of resources and environment of city clusters in the central China has impor-tant practical guidance significance for promoting the healthy,sustainable and stable development of this region.Ac-cording to their influencing factors and reciprocity mechanism,using system dynamics approaches,this paper built a SD model for measuring the carrying capacity of resources and environment of the city clusters in the central China,and through setting different development models,the comprehensive measurement analysis on the carrying capacity was carried out.The results show that the model of promoting socio-economic development under the protection of resources and environment is the optimal model for promoting the harmony development of resources,environment,society and economy in the city clusters.According to this model,the optimum population scale of the city clusters in2020 is 42.80×106 persons,and the moderate economic development scale is 22.055× 1012 yuan(RMB).In 1996-2020,the carrying capacity of resources and environment in the city clusters took on obvious phase-change characteristics.During the studied period,it is basically at the initial development stage,and will come through the development process from slow development to speedup development.     

基于GIS的资源环境承载力评价与空间布局优化—以荣成市为例

随着工业化、城镇化、农业现代化和信息化的进程加快,我国面临的资源环境承载规模将进一步扩大,经济社会活动强度也将更高,人口、资源、环境之间的矛盾与冲突将不可避免地日趋激烈,因此开展资源环境承载力评估研究十分必要。以荣成市为研究对象,建立了资源环境承载力评价指标体系,基于GIS技术实现了属性数据的空间化,完成了各项指数的计算,分析了荣成市资源环境承载力状况。在资源环境承载力评价的基础上,分乡镇对荣成市土地空间布局进行优化,并形成综合分区引导。研究结论显示,荣成市资源环境基础性评价为可载,基于水资源系统的综合承载状态判定为临界,基于生态条件与环境质量系统的综合承载状态判定为可载。基于评价结果结合区位特点,荣成市各乡镇可按新兴产业、制造业、服务业,生态旅游业,生态农业,生态林业4个方向引导开发。     

Comprehensive evaluation on urban sustainable development of Harbin City in Northeast China

It is an effective way in realizing urban coordinated and sustainable development to establish a series of indicators and to evaluate urban environmental and socioeconomic development. According to the characteristics of Harbin City in Northeast China, an indicator system including five subsystems and 37 indicators was established for comprehensive evaluation on urban sustainable development. The development indexes of all urban subsystems and complex system were calculated quantitatively using the comprehensively integrated methods composed of Principle Component Analysis, Analytic Hierarchy Process and weighed index method, and then the comprehensive level of urban sustainable development and the degree of urban interior coordination were analyzed. The results indicated that 1) the overall urban development presented an uptrend, however, the interior development was not well balanced from 1996 to 2006; 2) the development in each subsystem presented a strong fluctuation; and 3) the development in resources subsystem showed a downtrend. Based on those results, the suggestions of urban sustainable development were put forward at the end.     

ON REGIONAL DIFFERENTIATION OF RIVER WATER ENVIRONMENT CAPACITY AND STRATEGIES TO CONTROL WATER ENVIRONMENT POLLUTION IN CHINA

ＯＮＲＥＧＩＯＮＡＬＤＩＦＦＥＲＥＮＴＩＡＴＩＯＮＯＦＲＩＶＥＲＷＡＴＥＲＥＮＶＩＲＯＮＭＥＮＴＣＡＰＡＣＩＴＹＡＮＤＳＴＲＡＴＥＧＩＥＳＴＯＣＯＮＴＲＯＬＷＡＴＥＲＥＮＶＩＲＯＮＭＥＮＴＰＯＬＬＵＴＩＯＮＩＮＣＨＩＮＡ￥ＷａｎｇＨｕａｄｏｎｇ（王华...     

Carrying Capacity of Marine Region in Liaoning Province

Carrying capacity is one of important studies on coordinating development of population,resources,and environment.At present,the researches on it mainly concentrate on the carrying capacity for population and economy,such as the water resources carrying capacity,the land resources carrying capacity,the environment carrying capacity,etc.Based on the related theories and methods,this paper creatively proposed the concept and meaning of carrying capacity of marine region,and formed the appraisal system.According to the developing situation of marine economy of Liaoning Province in recent years,and by employing the method of the state space,this paper also measured the carrying capacity and carrying state of marine region and discussed the sustainable problems of marine economy of Liaoning.The research results show that the carrying state of marine region of Liaoning is in the state of overloading at present,but taking a favorable turn.     

The present situation, types and changes of China’s environment

Based on development level of regional society and economy, the paper attempts to analyze the present situation, types and change of regional environment in China through the definition of four conceptions environmental pollution index (EPI), social and economic comprehensive index (SECI), —environmental comprehensive index (ECI) and social, economic and environmental comprehensive index (SEECI) and some mathematical calculation, and draws some conclusions to be worth referring: 1). There exists close relation between economic development and environmental situation. With high-speed development of economy, the discharge of the three wastes in China has been increasing, but its environmental social and economic benefit has also been improved at the same time. 2) In the course of economic development, regional environment situation in China has continuously been changing, and there exists the difference of environmental quality between provinces, which is bigger than that of economic development level between them. 3) Except very few provinces, regional EPI in China has risen in varying degrees since the 1980s, which shows that the task for China to prevent environment from polluting its still arduous.     

基于高效生态农业布局导向性的资源环境承载力评价—以黄河三角洲高效生态经济区为例

该文在对研究区资源环境本底基本了解的基础上,建立了包括耕地资源、水资源、社会经济资源、土壤环境、极端气候发生率和地质环境6个二级指标的资源环境承载力评价指标体系,采用定性和定量相结合的方法,利用层次分析法确定相关指标权重,分别对6个要素进行承载力评价。在各单元要素评价基础上,结合黄河三角洲高效生态经济区农业发展要求,划分出了沿海湿地生态系统保护带、北部盐渍化土质特色种植区、南部优质粮食生产区和果蔬集中种植区4个生态农业布局适宜区,并提出发展建议。     

THE PRESENT SITUATION,TYPES AND CHANGES OF CHINA'S ENVIRONMENT

1INTRODUCTION~ntially,environmentalproblemisaneconomicproblem.Atpresent,variousenvironmentalpoblernswhichmanarebeingconfrontedisadirectandindirectman-effectedrestilt.Meanwhile,environmentalproblemsareclOSelyrelatedto~ialproblems,eSpeciallyrapidgr'OwthofPOpulation(on,1994).So,whenenvironmentalproblemsforoneregionareanalyzed,itisnec~toconsiderits~ialandeconomicdevelOPmentlevel.2~Y~2.IbeaveralBasicconceptions2.1.1Environmentalcomprehensioni~(ECI)ECIexpressesthechangeOftotalenvironment…     

Three Types of Spatial Function Zoning in Key Ecological Function Areas Based on Ecological and Economic Coordinated Development: A Case Study of Tacheng Basin,China

Three types of spatial function zoning is an effective measure for regional environmental protection and orderly development.For ecological and economic coordinated development, spatial function zones should be divided scientifically to clear its direction of development and protection. Therefore, based on ecological constraints, a beneficial discussion would be about the key ecological function areas adopting the concept of ecological protection restriction and supporting socioeconomic development for spatial function zoning. In this paper, the researchers, taking Tacheng Basin, Xinjiang of China as an example, choose township as basic research unit and set up an evaluation index system from three aspects, namely, ecological protection suitability, agricultural production suitability, and urban development suitability, which are analyzed by using spatial analysis functions and exclusive matrix method. The results showed that: 1) This paper formed a set of multilevel evaluation index systems for three types of spatial function zoning of the key ecological function areas based on a novel perspective by scientifically dividing Tacheng Basin into ecological space, agricultural space, and urban space,which realized the integration and scientific orientation for spatial function at the township scale. 2) Under the guidance of three types of spatial pattern, the functional orientation and suggestions of development and protection was clearly defined for ecological protection zones,ecological economic zones, agricultural production zones, and urban development zones. 3) A new idea of space governance is provided to promote the coordinated and sustainable development between ecology and economy, which can break the traditional mode of thinking about regional economic development, and offers a scientific basis and reference for macro decision-making.     

威海市海岸带地质环境承载力综合评价研究

该文在威海市海岸带综合地质调查项目的基础上,根据陆域和海域不同的地质环境条件,分别进行了地质环境承载力综合评价。陆域选取了3个一级评价因子和13个二级评价因子建立地质环境承载力评价指标体系,利用层次分析法取得各评价因子权重,再利用模糊数学综合指数法进行了综合评价。海域选取了海底沉积物重金属污染、海底沙坡沙脊、浅层气、浅埋基岩和埋藏下切谷等5个评价因子,采用叠加法进行了综合评价。最终,将研究区地质环境承载力划分为强区、较强区、一般区、较弱区等4类。研究区陆域地质环境承载力相对较强,占总面积的67.67%;其次为一般区,占总面积的31.67%;较弱区零星分布,仅占总面积的0.66%。近海地质环境承载力总体较强,一般区主要分布在威海湾西部,较弱区分布在威海湾以北的广阔海域。     

Assessment of Sustainable Development System in Suihua City, China

Sustainable development is a complex and systemic issue. It is essential to study it by the component analysis method from the view of system science. The urban developmental sustainability is one of focuses that people has paid more attention to, however, little common understanding how to measure and evaluate the sustainability has been gotten. In this paper, a framework is designed to evaluate the developmental sustainability of Suihua City, Heilongjiang Province in China from the aspects of economy, society, population, resources and environment. We adopt the Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to decrease dimensions and simplify the original indexes into 12 indexes. Also, the hierarchy and comprehensive multiple-criterion evaluative methods are employed to assess the sustainable development system in Suihua City. Then, the weights of indexes are attained by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. Furthermore, urban comprehensive development level, developmental sustainability, coordinate degree are calculated and analyzed. By analyzing, we know the fluctuation of development level of subsystem, especially resources and environment subsystem, is acute. The comprehensive development level of sustainable development system in Suihua has been on the rise since 1999. That results from the effect of traditional economic development mode with high energy-consumed being decreased in the city after 1999. At the same time, it is obvious that there was an instability of development level in Suihua City during 1990-2002, with a turn in 1998, and the development could be sustainable, the status trend was more harmonious in 1999-2002.     

成长型城市群产业生态化时空演化特征及其影响因素——以山东半岛城市群为例

该文以山东半岛城市群作为研究对象,构建产业生态化综合评价指标体系,运用熵值法与主成分分析方法,探讨了山东半岛城市群产业生态化总体水平的时空分异特征及影响因素。结果表明:2004—2016年,山东半岛城市群产业生态化呈现上升趋势,山东半岛城市群产业生态化发展水平不断提高;山东半岛城市群产业生态化空间分异现象显著,形成了以济南和青岛为核心的两极化发展特征;山东半岛城市群产业生态化发展水平的区域化现象愈加明显,呈现出NE—SW走向的不均衡发展;山东半岛城市群产业生态化发展影响因素为区域经济发展水平、政府监管水平、外资利用差异以及区域科学技术差异。     

黄河三角洲地质资源环境承载力评价

黄河三角洲高效生态经济区的建立,将迎来大规模的基础建设和资源的消耗,从而加剧经济发展—资源消耗—环境污染之间的矛盾。黄河三角洲地区成陆时间较短,地质资源环境比较脆弱,淡水资源相对贫乏,近海地区生态保护及堤防修复压力较大。确定该区地质资源(水资源、土地资源)环境所能承受的人类各种社会经济活动的能力,并预测今后该区大规模人类活动可能对资源环境造成的影响。     

国家可持续发展综合实验区的可持续发展公共信息网研究

国家“九五”科技攻关计划在国家可持续发展综合实验区建立了可持续发展公共信息网示范工程。本文介绍该示范工程的主要研究内容及成果;提出以发展为重点,通过资源、环境、经济、社会的动态平衡实现可持续发展的建模思路;提出“发展牵引”、“诊断决策”两种不同的可持续发展信息化类型;建立时空一体化、历史模拟、仿真预测、空间配准、知识能力建设以及环境与生态承载能力制约等模型和示范区的可持续发展公共信息网;介绍了可持续发展水平时空动态分析和农作物种植结构调整2个应用实例。该示范工程的完成,极大地推动了示范区信息化建设。     

Regional ecological security and diagnosis of obstacle factors in underdeveloped regions: a case study in Yunnan Province,China

In order to clarify regional ecological security status and formation mechanism of regional ecological security barriers in underdeveloped regions of China, we took Yunnan province as a case to evaluate its regional ecological security by using entropy matter-element model, comprehensive index and GIS spatial method, and we diagnosed its obstacle factors through obstacle degree model. We found a low overall level of regional ecological security in Yunnan. Only Kunming fell into the good level, 68% of the regions were below the critical safe level. For the vast majority of regions in Yunnan, their regional ecological security was unstable. The indexes related to per capita resources, geological and topography environment, economic, and technology were at the unsafe or dangerous level. The indexes related to urban expansion, level of income, cultivated land quality were at the level of critical safety. The indexes concerning urban management capacity, air quality and water environment were at the good or ideal level. Yunnan’s regional ecological security was not good due to natural obstructive environment itself, simultaneously lower backward economic and social level restricted the ability of ecological security response to manage ragile ecological environment. The results of the composite index were roughly consistent with those of the entropy weight matter-element model. The mean values of the classification index, from high to low, were: the state index > the response index > the pressure index. The state index and the response index had a significant mutual promotion to each other. The regions with good composite index, state index and response index mainly distributed in the central regions of Yunnan Province. Spatial autocorrelation of regional ecological security level in Yunnan was not obvious. Water resources, economic and social development were main obstacle factors of the regional ecological security. When distinguishing with obstacle type, Kunming belonged to natural ecological environment barrier type, while other regions belonged to economic and social barrier type.