成都市PM_(2.5)浓度时空变化特征及影响因子分析

近年来,空气质量问题日渐突出,大气污染已严重影响了人们的身体健康和日常生活。为了探究成都市近年来的大气污染状况,分析大气颗粒物浓度的时空变化特征及其控制性因子,本文利用2016年成都市逐小时PM_(2.5)监测数据,分析成都市PM_(2.5)浓度时空变化特征,探索气象因子与城市空间形态因子(建筑错落度)对PM_(2.5)浓度变化的影响。结果表明:(1)成都市PM_(2.5)浓度的日变化特征表现为城市中心具有"单峰单谷"特征,而城市郊区日变化特征不明显。且城市中心PM_(2.5)浓度空间变化特征整体表现为由西北向东南逐渐减小的趋势。(2)从全年来看,成都市PM_(2.5)浓度与气温和风速均呈显著负相关,与海平面气压呈显著正相关,而与相对湿度的相关性不明显。(3)PM_(2.5)浓度日间变化率与城市空间形态因子的相关性较强,建筑错落度越高,PM_(2.5)浓度下降越快。     

Sensitivity of penman-monteith reference crop evapotranspiration in Tao’er River Basin of northeastern China

A non-dimensional relative sensitivity coefficient was employed to predict the responses of reference crop evapotranspiration （ET0） to perturbation of four climate variables in Tao＇er River Basin of the northeastern China. Mean monthly ET0 and yearly ET0 from 1961 to 2005 were estimated with the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith Equation. A 45-year historical dataset of average monthly maximum/minimum air temperature, mean air temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours and relative humidity from 15 meteorological stations was used in the analysis. Results show that： 1） Sensitivity coefficients of wind speed, air temperature and sunshine hours were positive except for those of air temperature of Arxan Meteorological Station, while those of relative humidity were all negative. Relative humidity was the most sensitive variable in general for the Tao＇er River Basin, followed by sunshine hours, wind speed and air temperature. 2） Similar to climate variable, monthly sensitivity coefficients exhibit large annual fluctuations. 3） Sensitivity coefficients for four climate variables all showed significant trends in seasonal/yearly series. Also, sensitivity coefficients of air temperature, sunshine hours and wind speed all showed significant trends in spring. 4） Among all sensitivity coefficients, the average yearly sensitivity coefficient of relative humidity was highest throughout the basin and showed largest spatial variability. Longitudinal distribution of sensitivity coefficients for air temperature, relative humidity and sunshine hours was also found, which was similar to the distribution of the three climate variables.     

基于机器学习的高精度高分辨率气象因子时空估计

气象变量常作为重要的影响因子出现在环境污染、疾病健康和农业等领域,而高分辨率的气象资料可作为众多研究的基础数据,对推进相关研究的发展意义重大。本文以中国大陆为研究区域,利用2015年824个气象站点的气温、相对湿度和风速3套数据,结合不同的解释变量组合,分别构建了各自的GAM和残差自编码器神经网络（简称残差网络）模型,以10倍交叉验证判断模型是否过拟合。研究结果表明：① GAM和残差网络方法都不存在过拟合问题,同GAM相比,残差网络显著提高了模型预测的精度（3个气象因素的交叉验证CV R²平均提高了0.21,CV RMSE平均降低了37%）,其中相对湿度模型的提升幅度最大（CV R²:0.85 vs. 0.52,CV RMSE:7.53% vs. 13.59%）;② 残差模型的结果较普通克里格插值结果和再分析资料更接近站点观测数据,表明残差网络可作为高分辨率气象数据研制的可靠方法。此外,研究还发现在相对湿度模型中加入臭氧浓度和气温、在风速模型中加入GLDAS风速再分析资料,可提升模型的性能。     

上海夏季雾霾的影响因素研究

由于对流层中气象因素变化剧烈且蕴含大量的水蒸气和颗粒物,雾霾的发生也极易改变卫星信号的传播路径,从而导致对流层延迟发生变化,因此重点研究气象因素与雾霾之间的相关性问题。通过上海市2016年62 d(DOY 153～214)的大气中污染物含量资料与天顶对流层延迟比较分析发现,大气中每种污染物含量基本呈现相似的走势,天顶对流层延迟随PM2.5含量增加而增大,且在日值数据的比较中发现,上海夏季的PM2.5含量与气压、气温和相对湿度成正相关关系,与风速、降水量呈负相关关系。     

北京市潜在风道的数值模拟与综合识别

过去从局地尺度和微尺度优化规划和建筑设计的角度,城市规划与建筑学科的研究者提出了构建城市区域通风廊道的思想。但对目前的特大城市和城市群而言,无论城市热岛还是污染物输送都可能涉及更大尺度范围的区域影响。结合自然地理资源条件,对城市外围待发展区域的风道识别和规划,可能更具有现实意义。本文基于空气动力学粗糙长度计算通风指数,从动力学角度初步识别出北京不同区域的通风潜力：① 利用数值模拟输出的1月和7月平均水平风场发现,在背景风较强的冬季,水平风速的分布与下垫面的粗糙度保持高度一致,在北京城区东北方向存在一条明显的风道,在通过城区时受城市下垫面的拖曳影响出现显著的风速下降,在城市下风方向风速又有所回升;② 与热力分析对比发现,夏季城市外的低温区域与盛行风向相悖,偏南方向上的补偿空间面积比冬季小且与作用空间的温差也小,流向城市的可利用风资源匮乏;③ 基于近地面温度和粗糙长度加权计算后得到通风指数,冬季为0~0.25,夏季为0~0.60,数值越小通风能力越强,受季节热力差异影响,冬季通风能力显著优于夏季。④ 进一步结合数值模拟的风速分布,将通风评价结果划分为4个等级,从北京市全域尺度分冬、夏两季识别了北京市的潜在风道,冬季贯穿南北的风道全长约200 km,从城市外围引入风资源,可有效提高城市自净能力,而在背景风较弱的夏季,风道贯通性较差,气流疏导能力弱,亟待区域联动优化城市群发展规划。     

Seasonal Variation in Air Temperature and Relative Humidity on Building Areas and in Green Spaces in Beijing,China

The cooling and humidifying effects of urban parks are an essential component of city ecosystems in terms of regulating microclimates or mitigating urban heat islands(UHIs).Air temperature and relative humidity are two main factors of thermal environmental comfort and have a critical impact on the urban environmental quality of human settlements.We measured the 2-m height air temperature and relative humidity at the Beijing Olympic Park and a nearby building roof for more than 1 year to elucidate seasonal variations in air temperature and relative humidity,as well as to investigate the outdoor thermal comfort.The results showed that the lawn of the park could,on average,reduce the air temperature by(0.80±0.19)℃,and increase the relative humidity by(5.24±2.91)% relative to the values measured at the building roof during daytime.During the nighttime,the lawn of the park reduced the air temperature by(2.64±0.64)℃ and increased the relative humidity by(10.77±5.20)%.The park was cooler and more humid than surrounding building area,especially in night period(more pronounced cooling with 1.84℃).Additionally,the lawn of the park could improve outdoor thermal comfort through its cooling and humidifying effects.The level of thermal comfort in the park was higher than that around the building roof for a total of 11 days annually in which it was above one or more thermal comfort levels(average reduced human comfort index of 0.92)except during the winter.     

Wavelet analysis and nonparametric test for climate change in Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang during 1959–2006

Using wavelet analysis, regression analysis and the Mann-Kendall test, this paper analyzed time-series (1959–2006) weather data from 23 meteorological stations in an attempt to characterize the climate change in the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China. Major findings are as follows: 1) In the 48-year study period, average annual temperature, annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity all presented nonlinear trends. 2) At the 16-year time scale, all three climate indices unanimously showed a rather flat before 1964 and a detectable pickup thereafter. At the 8-year time scale, an S-shaped nonlinear and uprising trend was revealed with slight fluctuations in the entire process for all three indices. Incidentally, they all showed similar pattern of a slight increase before 1980 and a noticeable up-swing afterwards. The 4-year time scale provided a highly fluctuating pattern of periodical oscillations and spiral increases. 3) Average annual relative humidity presented a negative correlation with average annual temperature and a positive correlation with annual precipitation at each time scale, which revealed a close dynamic relationship among them at the confidence level of 0.001. 4) The Mann-Kendall test at the 0.05 confidence level demonstrated that the climate warming trend, as represented by the rising average annual temperature, was remarkable, but the climate wetting trend, as indicated by the rising annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity, was not obvious.     

东莞市交通路网格局对城市空间扩张影响研究

城市化进程中,交通路网格局的发展与土地利用变化有着密切关系,交通系统的发展引起城市空间形态、土地利用开发、土地利用价格和用地布局特征的变化,反之,土地利用变化也引起了交通路网格局、路网密度的改变。本文以东莞市为例,对其交通路网密度与新增城市用地变化强度作了定量分析。根据TM遥感影像提取2001、2005和2009年3期的城市用地,采用核密度估算(KDE)新增城市用地变化强度,探讨区域内交通路网格局与新增城市用地变化强度的关系。结果表明,在2001-2005年间,路网格局变化较大,新增道路类型主要为高速路,新增城市用地总量较大、扩张速度快,特别是交通路网密度大的边缘区域。在2005-2009年间,随着路网发育不断成熟,路网密度内部差异减少,新增道路类型主要为县乡道路,新增城市用地速度明显放缓。经相关系数显著性检验后表明:2001-2009年间,在置信度为95%时,东莞市道路网密度、加权密度(x)与新增城市用地核密度(y)的相关系数Rxy均大于0.1946,证明东莞市道路网密度、加权密度与新增城市用地核密度高度相关。     

基于道路结构特征识别的城市交通状态空间自相关分析

 城市道路交通状态具有空间自相关特征。路段交通状态的变化会很快影响到邻近路段,导致一定空间范围内路段的交通状态发生改变。揭示城市交通状态的空间自相关特征,对交通规划、交通控制与诱导具有重要意义。然而,受到城市路网空间结构和道路拓扑特征的影响,城市道路交通状态的空间自相关并非各向同性,也并非均匀地向上下游扩散,而是有选择性地集中在部分邻近路段上。因此,仅考虑路段地理空间下的上下游邻近性,难以全面度量路段间交通状态的相互影响,识别出交通状态空间相关性强的道路集合。本文借鉴复杂网络分析方法,定量化分析了城市路网的模块化与层次性特征,利用城市路段在空间上的聚集特征和路段在网络中拓扑角色的差异,提出了一种新的交通状态自相关路段邻近性判别规则,即空间邻近且拓扑等价规则,以此规则实现交通状态空间相关路段聚类过程,更好地揭示城市路段之间的交通状态空间相关性。     

基于浮动车数据的城市道路通行能力时空特征分析

针对城市道路通行能力定量度量指标,提出基于浮动车数据的道路基本通行能力评估方法;以道路通行能力指标来分析深圳市道路网通行能力的时空分异规律,结论如下：城市道路通行能力具有明显的时变特征和空间分布的不均衡性;各行政区域通行能力在工作日变化平缓,在休息日出现午高峰;通行能力余量无论在工作日和休息日都浮动较大,并在休息日中午显著下降;道路通行能力具有明显区域分类现象,人口密度和发展程度较高区域的道路通行能力整体较低,且一天内的变化较小;道路等级对通行能力和通行能力余量影响显著,较高等级道路一天内变化较大,低等级道路则较平稳。     

广佛都市区道路网络与城镇建设用地间的影响分析

采用1957与1982年的地形图和1995与2008年两时相的卫星影像提取城镇建设用地信息,运用ArcGIS建立广佛都市区路网与建设用地数据库.采用相关性分析方法,定量地分析广佛都市区道路密度与建设用地之间的影响.结果表明,道路密度和城镇建设用地比重两个变量系数之间呈高度的线性正相关关系,不同年份区镇的道路密度与城镇建...     

Spatiotemporal Variations and Influencing Factors Analysis of PM<Subscript>2.5</Subscript> Concentrations in Jilin Province,Northeast China

High PM_2.5 concentrations and frequent air pollution episodes during late autumn and winter in Jilin Province have attracted attention in recent years. To describe the spatial and temporal variations of PM_2.5 concentrations and identify the decisive influencing factors, a large amount of continuous daily PM_2.5 concentration data collected from 33 monitoring stations over 2-year period from 2015 to 2016 were analyzed. Meanwhile, the relationships were investigated between PM_2.5 concentrations and the land cover, socioeconomic and meteorological factors from the macroscopic perspective using multiple linear regressions (MLR) approach. PM_2.5 concentrations across Jilin Province averaged 49 μg/m³, nearly 1.5 times of the Chinese annual average standard, and exhibited seasonal patterns with generally higher levels during late autumn and over the long winter than the other seasons. Jilin Province could be divided into three kinds of sub-regions according to 2-year average PM_2.5 concentration of each city. Most of the spatial variation in PM_2.5 levels could be explained by forest land area, cultivated land area, urban greening rate, coal consumption and soot emissions of cement manufacturing. In addition, daily PM_2.5 concentrations had negative correlation with daily precipitation and positive correlation with air pressure for each city, and the spread and dilution effect of wind speed on PM_2.5 was more obvious at mountainous area in Jilin Province. These results indicated that coal consumption, cement manufacturing and straw burning were the most important emission sources for the high PM_2.5 levels, while afforestation and urban greening could mitigate particulate air pollution. Meanwhile, the individual meteorological factors such as precipitation, air pressure, wind speed and temperature could influence local PM_2.5 concentration indirectly.     

北京城区不透水地表盖度变化及对地表温度的影响

基于QuickBird高分辨率影像、LandsatTM影像及夜间灯光数据,设计了集成CART（Classification and Regression Tree,）算法和多源遥感数据估算亚像元级不透水地表盖度的技术方案,采取适用于典型温带半干旱地区的ISP（Impervious Surface Percentage ）提取方法,提取2001年和2011年北京城区不透水地表盖度,并将不透水地表盖度分为3类,ISP为10%~60%的区域为低密度区,60%~80%的区域为中密度区,大于80%的区域为高密度区。同时采用单窗算法反演2001年和2011年地表温度,对2001-2011年北京六环以内城区不同环路区域ISP发展趋势,以及其与地表温度的相关性进行分析。结果表明：（1）北京城区的不透水地表盖度变化主要集中在低密度区域,与之相比,中密度区域和高密度区域不透水地表盖度变化不大。2001-2011年来北京五环以内区域由于城建区较多,整体不透水地表变化并不明显,主要变化区域集中在五环至六环以内区域,其中低密度区增长明显,中密度区和高密度区主要增长集中在东部,可以看出,近年来五环至六环以内区域发展迅速,城建区范围不断扩大。（2）相较于2001年,2011年北京市中心地表温度明显上升,高温区聚集程度更为明显。其中四环以内地表温度与周边区域地表温度相比,温差明显增大。（3）通过对比2001年和2011年各密度区平均地表温度发现,相较于2001年,2011年北京市六环以内城区各密度区之间的地表温度差异更大,城市热岛效应更为明显。（4）2001年和2011年北京城区各环路区域内不透水地表盖度与地表温度均呈正相关。四环至六环区域,地表温度随不透水地表盖度变化的趋势相近。ISP在10%~20%的区域,地表温度随不透水地表盖度增高而上升的速率明显高于其他区域,ISP大于20%的区域地表温度上升速率下降,且趋于一致。     

Analyzing and forecasting climate change in Harbin City,Northeast China

Based on sounding data from 1975 to 2005 and TM/ETM+ remote sensing images in 1989, 2001 and 2007, the climate changes in Harbin City, Northeast China in recent 30 years were analyzed and forecasted. Results show that in the lower troposphere the meridional wind speed and mean annual wind speed decrease, and in the lower stratosphere the temperature decreases while the meridional wind speed increases significantly. In the study area, the climate is becoming warmer and wetter in the middle lower troposphere. The expansion of urban area has great effects on the surface air temperature and the wind speed, leading to the increase of the surface air temperature, the decrease of the surface wind speed, and the increase of the area of urban high temperature zone. The quantitative equations have been established among the surface air temperature, the carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and the specific humidity (the water vapor content). It is predicted that the future increasing rate of the surface air temperature is 0.85°C/10yr if emission concentration of CO₂ remains unchanged; if emission concentration of CO₂ decreases to 75%, 50% and 25%, respectively, the surface air temperature will increase 0.65°C/10yr, 0.46°C/10yr and 0.27°C/10yr, respectively. The rise of the surface air temperature in the study area is higher than that of the global mean temperature forecasted by IPCC.     

DEM建模视角下的城市道路分类与表达

城市数字高程模型（Digital Elevation Model,DEM）是城市最重要的基础地理信息数据之一。城市道路DEM建模是城市DEM构建的重要组成部分,而道路分类是城市道路DEM建模的重要基础和前提。由于现有的城市道路分类方法在城市道路形态表达上有一定程度的失真,无法准确反映道路平面形态特征,导致其难以满足未来的地表过程模拟的需求。针对这一问题,本文从DEM建模视角出发,通过解析城市道路的构成,分析城市道路形态特征,针对现有的道路分类方法的不足,提出了一种顾及道路形态的城市道路分类方法。并在此基础上,探讨了城市道路的DEM表达方式,同时选取南京市局部区域为实验区,以DLG数据为数据源,对本文提出的城市道路分类方法与表达进行了相关的实验与分析。结果表明：与现有的方法相比,基于本文所提出的城市道路分类方法构建的道路DEM所表达的道路形态更符合实际实验区的道路形态,未出现局部路面不正常的突变情况且城市道路要素框架结构明显,所表达的城市道路地形更为精细,可以为雨洪模拟和水文分析等提供重要基础。因此,本文的道路分类方法能够清晰有效地辅助城市道路DEM建模,为高精度城市道路DEM的构建提供基础和参考。     

北京城市建筑密度分布对热岛效应的影响研究

“热岛效应”是现代城市气候的主要特征之一,本文基于高分辨率遥感影像,通过人工目视解译获取了北京市五环内的不同建筑密度区,进而结合遥感反演获得的地表温度数据,分析了城市建筑密度分布与城市热岛效应及其变化之间的关系。结果表明,北京市五环内的建筑以中密度区为主,高密度区次之,各建筑密度区在不同环线之间的分布也有较大差异。高密度区主要分布在二环以内,中密度和低密度建筑区主要分布在二、三环之间,高层建筑区总体分布较少,主要分布在二、三环和三、四环之间。城市建筑区的地表温度与建筑密度呈现显著正相关关系,城市建筑密度越大,其地表平均温度就越高,北京市高密度区的平均温度达到30.5 ℃,而高层建筑对热岛强度具有一定的缓解作用,北京高层建筑区的平均温度为28.32 ℃,比高密度区低2.18 ℃。从热岛强度变化来看,总体上高密度区、中密度区和低密度区的热岛强度均为增强的趋势,其中高密度区热岛强度增加的幅度最大,热岛强度增加了0.56 ℃,只有高层建筑区的热岛强度表现为减弱趋势,热岛强度降低了0.07 ℃。     

京津唐地区HFMD时空变异分析与影响因子探测

手足口病（HFMD）是一种多发于儿童的常见传染病。近年来,中国HFMD发病人数逐年上升,疾病疫情也日益受到社会广泛关注。虽已有不少相关研究,但对于探测其时空异质性及量化潜在影响因子解释力的研究仍然较少。本文采用地理探测器及贝叶斯时空层次模型,对2009-2013年京津唐地区HFMD发病率的时空异质性进行分析,并量化各影响因子及其两两交互作用对HFMD发病率的解释力。结果表明：① HFMD的相对风险存在时间异质性,其发病风险在春夏季（5-7月）达到峰值,而冬季（12-次年2月）发病风险最低;② HFMD的相对风险存在空间异质性,在经济发达的地区HFMD发病率较高;③ 影响HFMD发病率时间异质性的主要气象因子为平均温度、累积降水、相对湿度,解释力分别为0.38,0.27,0.13,且交互作用都大于独自影响的作用,如平均温度和相对湿度、平均温度和降水,平均温度和风速两两交互的解释力分别为0.43, 0.40, 0.42。通过研究京津唐地区HFMD发病率的时空异质性以及影响因子的量化状况,为本地区HFMD的预防和控制提供理论依据。     

Factorial analysis of annual erosion-accretion cycles of tidal flats in the front area of the southern Changjiang river delta

ＦＡＣＴＯＲＩＡＬＡＮＡＬＹＳＩＳＯＦＡＮＮＵＡＬＥＲＯＳＩＯＮＡＣＣＲＥＴＩＯＮＣＹＣＬＥＳＯＦＴＩＤＡＬＦＬＡＴＳＩＮＴＨＥＦＲＯＮＴＡＲＥＡＯＦＴＨＥＳＯＵＴＨＥＲＮＣＨＡＮＧＪＩＡＮＧＲＩＶＥＲＤＥＬＴＡＹａｎｇＳｈｉｌｕｎ（杨世伦）Ｃｈｅ...     

基于粗糙集的交通道路与城镇用地扩展关系分析

交通道路是城镇用地扩展的重要驱动力因素之一,对城镇用地的扩展具有积极的作用。城镇用地的扩展也不断地对交通道路的发展提出新的需求。目前,众多的数理方法和空间模型已用以研究交通道路与城镇用地扩展之间的相互作用。为了更加有效地分析交通道路与城镇用地扩展的作用关系,以更加有效地研究交通道路与城镇用地扩展的相互作用程度和模式,需进一步探索新的技术方法和手段。本文利用粗糙集理论,以广东省城镇化问题为例,从一个新的角度来研究交通道路与城镇用地扩展之间的关系。结果表明,使用粗糙集抽取的反映交通道路和城镇用地扩展的决策规则可以有效地反映交通道路与城镇用地扩展的关系,对于城镇化的研究具有一定的指导作用。     

Temporal and spatial variations of ET o and sensitivity coefficients in spring-summer in eastern agricultural areas of Qinghai, China

Reference crop evapotranspiration(ET 0) is a key parameter to calculate crop water requirements.In the paper,ET 0 during 1960-2005 was calculated with FAO-56 PM in eastern agricultural areas of Qinghai,China.Then the sensitivity coefficients of ET 0 to meteorological variables were estimated through the nondimensional partial derivative in FAO-56 PM.Results show that the mean annual ET 0 of the whole area is 904 mm,and ET 0 portrays a very significant decrease during the 46 years.In spatial,ET 0 decreases from southeast to northwest,firstly increases then decreases from southwest to northeast.Through sensitivity analysis,in spring the most sensitive variable is relative humidity,while in summer is temperature.The temperature,sunshine duration and wind speed sensitivity coefficients(S(TA),S(n),S(u)) are higher in middle areas as opposed to surrounding areas,while the relative humidity sensitivity coefficient(S(RH)) has an opposite distribution rule.