Hydrological Simulation Using TRMM and CHIRPS Precipitation Estimates in the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin

Satellite-based products with high spatial and temporal resolution provide useful precipitation information for data-sparse or ungauged large-scale watersheds. In the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin, rainfall stations are sparse and unevenly distributed, and the transboundary characteristic makes the collection of precipitation data more difficult, which has restricted hydrological processes simulation. In this study, daily precipitation data from four datasets(gauge observations, inverse distance weighted(IDW) data, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) estimates, and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations(CHIRPS) estimates), were applied to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model, and then their capability for hydrological simulation in the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin were examined. TRMM and CHIRPS data showed good performances on precipitation estimation in the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin, with the better performance for TRMM product. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE) values of gauge, IDW, TRMM, and CHIRPS simulations during the calibration period were 0.87, 0.86, 0.95, and 0.93 for monthly flow, respectively, and those for daily flow were 0.75, 0.77, 0.86, and 0.84, respectively. TRMM and CHIRPS data were superior to rain gauge and IDW data for driving the hydrological model, and TRMM data produced the best simulation performance. Satellite-based precipitation estimates could be suitable data sources when simulating hydrological processes for large data-poor or ungauged watersheds, especially in international river basins for which precipitation observations are difficult to collect. CHIRPS data provide long precipitation time series from 1981 to near present and thus could be used as an alternative precipitation input for hydrological simulation, especially for the period without TRMM data. For satellite-based precipitation products, the differences in the occurrence frequencies and amounts of precipitation with different intensities would affect simulation results of water balance components, which should be comprehensively considered in water resources estimation and planning.     

遥感及再分析降水产品在缺资料干旱内陆盆地的适用性评估

山区降水较集中,但降水测站多位于山谷或人口密集区,代表性差。遥感和再分析降水产品能提供时空分布连续的数据,不受地形条件限制。柴达木盆地中心属干旱荒漠区,水是制约该区开发的首要条件,其四周属高寒山区,降水相对较多,但降水监测十分薄弱。为获取该区相对精确的降水时空分布信息,本文评估了4套高分辨率降水产品（CMADS、TRMM、GPM和MSWEP）的适用性。首先基于地面站点数据评估它们在不同时空尺度上的精度,并分析它们在柴达木盆地的空间分布和年内分配特征。然后,以盆地东南隅的无测站山区香日德河流域为研究区,利用降水产品驱动SWAT模型来评估它们的分布式水文模拟适用性。结果表明：(1) MSWEP在年、月尺度上与站点降水的吻合程度最高（R≥0.79,PBIAS=0.5%）,其次是GPM和TRMM,CMADS精度最低（R≥0.64,PBIAS=5.8%）;(2)从降水精度与站点高程的关系来看,降水产品在相对低海拔区容易高估站点降水,而在相对高海拔区常低估实际降水;(3)在香日德河流域,MSWEP(NSE=0.64)在基准期（2009—2012年）的径流模拟表现明显好于其它降水产品（NSE=0.3...     

TRMM及GPM降水数据在高寒内陆河流域的准确性评估

降水数据的准确性和时空分辨率成为水文过程模拟的关键.卫星遥感降水资料的日益丰富为资料缺乏区的水文模拟带来了新的突破.本研究拟在资料缺乏、下垫面复杂,观测难、建模难的柴达木盆地高寒内陆河流域—巴音河中上游,基于近5年的TMPA 3B42、GPM IMERG V5及GPM IMERG V6逐日降水数据和气象站点观测数据建立...     

Hydrological Processes in the Huaihe River Basin,China: Seasonal Variations,Causes and Implications

Understanding streamflow changes in terms of trends and periodicities and relevant causes is the first step into scientific management of water resources in a changing environment. In this study, monthly streamflow variations were analyzed using Modified Mann-Kendall(MM-K) trend test and Continuous Wavelet Transform(CWT) methods at 9 hydrological stations in the Huaihe River Basin. It was found that: 1) streamflow mainly occurs during May to September, accounting for 70.4% of the annual total streamflowamount with Cv values between 0.16–0.85 and extremum ratio values between 1.70–23.90; 2) decreased streamflow can be observed in the Huaihe River Basin and significant decreased streamflow can be detected during April and May, which should be the results of precipitation change and increased irrigation demand; 3) significant periods of 2–4 yr were detected during the 1960 s, the 1980 s and the 2000 s. Different periods were found at stations concentrated within certain regions implying periods of streamflow were caused by different influencing factors for specific regions; 4) Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) has the most significant impacts on monthly streamflow mainly during June. Besides, Southern Oscillation Index(SOI), North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) and the Ni?o3.4 Sea Surface Temperature(Ni?o3.4) have impacts on monthly streamflow with three months lags, and was less significant in time lag of six months. Identification of critical climatic factors having impacts on streamflow changes can help to predict monthly streamflow changes using climatic factors as explanatory variables. These findings were well corroborated by results concerning impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) regimes on precipitation events across the Huaihe River Basin. The results of this study can provide theoretical background for basin-scale management of water resources and agricultural irrigation.     

遥感降水产品在中国不同气候区的适用性研究

遥感降水产品相对于气象站观测数据能够更好地反映降水的空间分布特征,对其进行不同气候区上的差异性评价对数据产品选择和遥感降水反演算法改进均有重大意义。本文选择中国典型气候区（干旱区、过渡区、湿润区和青藏高原地区）,以649个经偏差矫正后的气象站降水数据为标准,评估了5种国际常用的遥感降水产品 (CHIRPS v2.0, CMORPH v1.0, MSWEP v2.0, PERSIANN-CDR, TRMM 3B42v7) 在中国典型气候区的适用性。研究发现,各产品的性能存在空间差异性。MSWEP在各气候区的相关系数(CC),Kling-Gupta efficiency（KGE）,均方根误差（RMSE）等基本统计性能指标均优于其他4种产品。相对偏差（BIAS）方面,在干旱区、湿润区、青藏高原、过渡区表现较优越的产品分别为MSWEP、CHIRPS、PERSIANN、TRMM。在评估遥感降水产品对降水事件发生概率的估算能力方面,选择了误报率（FAR,降水事件预报错误的比例）、命中率（POD,降水事件预报正确的比例）、关键成功指数（CSI,降水事件正确预报综合性能）、精度指数（ACC,等级预报综合性能）和降水等级概率分布（PDF）5个指标作为评估依据,结果表明,就POD,CSI和ACC而言,在各气候区MSWEP表现明显优于其他产品;对于FAR,TRMM和CMORPH产品在湿润区表现优越,其余气候区仍以MSWEP表现较为优越;就PDF而言,PERSIANN和MSWEP产品对1~20 mm的日降水量的估算偏高,特别是MSWEP在青藏高原和湿润区对小雨的估算频率明显偏高, MSWEP有待在该区提高频率预报的能力。综合而言,多源数据融合的MSWEP在各气候区的基本统计性能和降水等级性能较好,可作为可靠的降水数据源用于中国水文气象研究,同时也表明多源数据融合产品具有良好的应用前景。     

Evaluation of SWAT Model performance on glaciated and non-glaciated subbasins of Nam Co Lake,Southern Tibetan Plateau,China

This paper presents an assessment of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) on a glaciated(Qugaqie) and a non-glaciated(Niyaqu) subbasin of the Nam Co Lake. The Nam Co Lake is located in the southern Tibetan Plateau, two subbasins having catchment areas of 59 km~2 and 388 km~2, respectively. The scores of examined evaluation indices(i.e., R~2, NSE, and PBIAS) established that the performance of the SWAT model was better on the monthly scale compared to the daily scale. The respective monthly values of R~2, NSE, and PBIAS were 0.94, 0.97, and 0.50 for the calibration period while 0.92, 0.88, and -8.80 for the validation period. Glacier melt contribution in the study domain was simulated by using the SWAT model in conjunction with the Degree Day Melt(DDM) approach. The conjunction of DDM with the SWAT Model ensued improved results during both calibration(R~2=0.96, NSE=0.95, and PBIAS=-13.49) and validation (R~2=0.97, NSE=0.96, and PBIAS=-2.87) periods on the monthly time scale. Average contribution(in percentage) of water balance components to the total streamflow of Niyaqu and Qugaqie subbasins was evaluated. We found that the major portion(99.45%) of the streamflow in the Niyaqu subbasin was generated by snowmelt or rainfall surface runoff(SURF_Q), followed by groundwater(GW_Q, 0.47%), and lateral(LAT_Q, 0.06%) flows. Conversely, in the Qugaqie subbasin, major contributor to the streamflow(79.63%) was glacier melt(GLC_Q), followed by SURF_Q(20.14%), GW_Q(0.13%), and LAT_Q(0.089%). The contribution of GLC_Q was the highest(86.79%) in July and lowest(69.95%) in September. This study concludes that the performance of the SWAT model in glaciated catchment is weak without considering glacier component in modeling; however, it performs reasonably well in non-glaciated catchment. Furthermore, the temperature index approach with elevation bands is viable in those catchments where streamflows are driven by snowmelt. Therefore, it is recommended to use the SWAT Model in conjunction with DDM or energy base model to simulate the glacier melt contribution to the total streamflow. This study might be helpful in quantification and better management of water resources in data scarce glaciated regions.     

Analysis of long-term dependence phenomenon in Benue River flow process and its hypothesis testing

In this paper, the long-term dependence phenomenon （the Hurst Effect） which characterizes hydrological and other geophysical times series is studied. The long-term memory is analysed for both daily and monthly streamflow series of the Benue River at Makurdi, Nigeria by using heuristic methods and testing specifically the null hypothesis of short-term memory in the monthly flow series. Results obtained by applying heuristic procedures indicated that there may be the presence of long-term memory component in mean daily flow series but there is no discernible reason to suspect the presence in both average monthly and maximum monthly flow series （extreme event）. Hypothesis testing was conducted by using original and modified versions of rescaled range statistic. When the modified rescaled range, which accounts for short-term memory in the series, is used, the null hypothesis is accepted for both the average monthly and maximum monthly flow series, indicating little or no probable presence of long-term memory in the series. An identical conclusion is also arrived at when second null hypothesis for independence of the monthly flow series is tested. Therefore, apart from the mean daily flow series, there is little evidence of long-term dependence in the Benue River streamflow series at Makurdi. However, considering the limited length of data used, the results are inconclusive.     

Hydrological impacts of climate change on streamflow of Dongliao River watershed in Jilin Province, China

The impacts of future climate change on streamflow of the Dongliao River Watershed located in Jilin Province,China have been evaluated quantitatively by using a general circulation model(HadCM3)coupled with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)hydrological model.The model was calibrated and validated against the historical monitored data from 2005 to 2009.The streamflow was estimated by downscaling HadCM3 outputs to the daily mean temperature and precipitation series,derived for three 30-year time slices,2020s,2050s and 2080s.Results suggest that daily mean temperature increases with a changing rate of 0.435℃per decade,and precipitation decreases with a changing rate of 0.761 mm per decade.Compared with other seasons,the precipitation in summer shows significant downward trend,while a significant upward trend in autumn.The annual streamflow demonstrates a general downward trend with a decreasing rate of 0.405 m3/s per decade.The streamflow shows significant downward and upward trends in summer and in autumn,respectively.The decreasing rate of streamflow in summer reaches 1.97 m 3 /s per decade,which contributes primarily to the decrease of streamflow.The results of this work would be of great benifit to the design of economic and social development planning in the study area.     

Impact of Meteorological Drought on Streamflow Drought in Jinghe River Basin of China

Under global climate change, drought has become one of the most serious natural hazards, affecting the ecological environ- ment and human life. Drought can be categorized as meteorological, agricultural, hydrological or socio-economic drought. Among the different categories of drought, hydrological drought, especially streamflow drought, has been given more attention by local govern- ments, researchers and the public in recent years. Identifying the occurrence of streamflow drought and issuing early warning can pro- vide timely information for effective water resources management. In this study, streamflow drought is detected by using the Standard- ized Runoff Index, whereas meteorological drought is detected by the Standardized Precipitation Index. Comparative analyses of fre- quency, magnitude, onset and duration are conducted to identify the impact of meteorological drought on streamflow drought. This study focuses on the Jinghe River Basin in Northwest China, mainly providing the following findings. 1） Eleven meteorological droughts and six streamflow droughts were indicated during 1970 and 1990 after pooling using Inter-event time and volume Criterion method. 2） Streamflow drought in the Jinghe River Basin lagged meteorological drought for about 127 days. 3） The frequency of streamflow drought in Jinghe River Basin was less than meteorological drought. However, the average duration of streamflow drought is longer. 4） The magnitude of streamflow drought is greater than meteorological drought. These results not only play an important theo- retical role in understanding relationships between different drought categories, but also have practical implications for streamflow drought mitigation and regional water resources management.     

Projections of the impacts of climate change on the water deficit and on the precipitation erosive indexes in Mantaro River Basin,Peru

Projections of climate change are essential to guide sustainable development plans in the tropical Andean countries such as Peru. This study assessed the projections of precipitation and potential evaporation, rain erosive potential, and precipitation concentration in the Mantaro River Basin, in the Peruvian Andes, which is important for agriculture and energy production in Peru. We assumed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario and simulated the global climate change by the HadCM3 global climate model. Due to the steepness of the mountain slopes and the narrowness of the river valley, this study uses the downscaling of the global model simulations by the regional Eta model down to 20-km resolution. The downscaling projections show decrease in the monthly precipitation with respect to the baseline period, especially during the rainy season, between February and April, until the end of the 21st century. Meanwhile, a progressive increase in the monthly evaporation from the baseline period is projected. The Modified Fournier Index (MFI) shows a statistically significant downward trend in the Mantaro River Basin, which suggests a possible reduction in the rain erosive potential. The Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) shows a statistically significant increasing trend, which indicates increasingly more irregular temporal distribution of precipitation towards the end of the century. The results of this study allow us to conclude that there should be a gradual increase in water deficit and precipitation concentration. Both changes can be negative for agriculture, power generation, and water supply in the Mantaro River Basin in Peru.     

Projection of future streamflow of the Hunza River Basin,Karakoram Range (Pakistan) using HBV hydrological model

Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdeling(HBV) Light model was used to evaluate the performance of the model in response to climate change in the snowy and glaciated catchment area of Hunza River Basin. The study aimed to understand the temporal variation of streamflow of Hunza River and its contribution to Indus River System(IRS). HBV model performed fairly well both during calibration(R2=0.87, Reff=0.85, PBIAS=-0.36) and validation(R2=0.86, Reff=0.83, PBIAS=-13.58) periods on daily time scale in the Hunza River Basin. Model performed better on monthly time scale with slightly underestimated low flows period during bothcalibration(R2=0.94, Reff=0.88, PBIAS=0.47) and validation(R2=0.92, Reff=0.85, PBIAS=15.83) periods. Simulated streamflow analysis from 1995-2010 unveiled that the average percentage contribution of snow, rain and glacier melt to the streamflow of Hunza River is about 16.5%, 19.4% and 64% respectively. In addition, the HBV-Light model performance was also evaluated for prediction of future streamflow in the Hunza River using future projected data of three General Circulation Model(GCMs) i.e. BCC-CSM1.1, CanESM2, and MIROCESM under RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 and predictions were made over three time periods, 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, using 1980-2010 as the control period. Overall projected climate results reveal that temperature and precipitation are the most sensitiveparameters to the streamflow of Hunza River. MIROC-ESM predicted the highest increase in the future streamflow of the Hunza River due to increase in temperature and precipitation under RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios from 2010-2099 while predicted slight increase in the streamflow under RCP2.6 during the start and end of the 21 th century. However, BCCCSM1.1 predicted decrease in the streamflow under RCP8.5 due to decrease in temperature and precipitation from 2010-2099. However, Can ESM2 predicted 22%-88% increase in the streamflow under RCP4.5 from 2010-2099. The results of this study could be useful for decision making and effective future strategic plans for water management and their sustainability in the region.     

基于多卫星遥感产品的极端降水监测研究

以中国气象局提供的地面观测站点逐小时降水数据为基准数据,综合评估了目前国际上主流的高分辨率多卫星遥感降水在2015年强台风灿鸿所带来的极端降水事件中的表现。结果表明:1所有的卫星遥感降水产品在此次极端降水事件中对实际降水都存在着低估,其中IMERG系列下经过校正的Final产品IMERG-Final-Calibrated表现得最好;2IMERG-Late-Calibrated在实时产品中表现最好,一定程度上可以满足极端降水事件监测对实时性的要求;3总的来说,在此次极端降水事件中,不管是滞时类产品还是实时类产品,IMERG系列卫星降水的表现均要好于TMPA系列下卫星降水的表现。     

Identification of Suitable Hydrologic Response Unit Thresholds for Soil and Water Assessment Tool Streamflow Modelling

Use of a non-zero hydrologic response unit(HRU) threshold is an effective way of reducing unmanageable HRU numbers and simplifying computational cost in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) hydrologic modelling. However, being less representative of watershed heterogeneity and increasing the level of model output uncertainty are inevitable when minor HRU combinations are disproportionately eliminated. This study examined 20 scenarios by running the model with various HRU threshold settings to understand the mechanism of HRU threshold effects on watershed representation as well as streamflow predictions and identify the appropriate HRU thresholds. Findings show that HRU numbers decrease sharply with increasing HRU thresholds. Among different HRU threshold scenarios, the composition of land-use, soil, and slope all contribute to notable variations which are directly related to the model input parameters and consequently affect the streamflow predictions. Results indicate that saturated hydraulic conductivity, average slope of the HRU, and curve number are the three key factors affecting stream discharge when changing the HRU thresholds. It is also found that HRU thresholds have little effect on monthly model performance, while evaluation statistics for daily discharges are more sensitive than monthly results. For daily streamflow predictions, thresholds of 5%/5%/5%(land-use/soil/slope) are the optimum HRU threshold level for the watershed to allow full consideration of model accuracy and efficiency in the present work. Besides, the results provide strategies for selecting appropriate HRU thresholds based on the modelling goal.     

加拿大Hudson海湾地区的水文研究

Hudson海湾的河川径流量在整个加拿大河川径流量中占有很大的比例，所有河流排泄量约30％流人了Hudson和James海湾。研究了该地区河川径流与当地气候变化之间的关系；把河川向James海湾的排泄与曼尼托巴省Churchill地区海水位的变化联系起来，讨论了其对Hudson海湾再循环的影响；根据曼尼托巴省Churchill地区海水位的观测资料重点讨论了该地区海水位在历史时期的变化及未来的预测变化等三个重要水文问题。最后指出了今后在Hudson海湾地区进行水文研究的方向。     

Long-term variability of air temperature and precipitation conditions in the Polish Carpathians

Mountain regions are sensitive to climate changes, which make them good indicators of climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of air temperature and precipitation in the Polish Carpathians. This study consists of climatological analyses for the historical period 1851-2010 and future projections for 2021-2100. The results confirm that there has been significant warming of the area and that this warming has been particularly pronounced over the last few decades and will continue in the oncoming years. Climate change is most evident in the foothills; however, these are the highest summits which have experienced the most intensive increases in temperature during the recent period. Precipitation does not demonstrate any substantial trend and has high year-to-year variability. The distribution of the annual temperature contour lines modelled for selected periods provides evidence of the upward shift of vertical climate zones in the Polish Carpathians, which reach approximately 350 meters, on average, what indicates further ecological consequences as ecosystems expand or become extinct and when there are changes in the hydrological cycle.     

Impacts of Climatic Factors on Runoff Coefficients in Source Regions of the Huanghe River

Runoff coefficients of the source regions of the Huanghe River in 1956–2000 were analyzed in this paper. In the 1990s runoff of Tangnaihai Hydrologic Station of the Huanghe River experienced a serious decrease, which had at- tracted considerable attention. Climate changes have important impact on the water resources availability. From the view of water cycling, runoff coefficients are important indexes of water resources in a particular catchment. Kalinin baseflow separation technique was improved based on the characteristics of precipitation and streamflow. After the separation of runoff coefficient (R/P), baseflow coefficient (Br/P) and direct runoff coefficient (Dr/P) were estimated. Statistic analyses were applied to assessing the impact of precipitation and temperature on runoff coefficients (including Dr/P, Br/P and R/P). The results show that in the source regions of the Huanghe River, mean annual baseflow coefficient was higher than mean annual direct runoff coefficient. Annual runoff coefficients were in direct proportion to annual pre- cipitation and in inverse proportion to annual mean temperature. The decrease of runoff coefficients in the 1990s was closely related to the decrease in precipitation and increase in temperature in the same period. Over different sub-basins of the source regions of the Huanghe River, runoff coefficients responded differently to precipitation and temperature. In the area above Jimai Hydrologic Station where annual mean temperature is –3.9oC, temperature is the main factor in- fluencing the runoff coefficients. Runoff coefficients were in inverse relation to temperature, and precipitation had nearly no impact on runoff coefficients. In subbasin between Jimai and Maqu Hydrologic Station Dr/P was mainly affected by precipitation while R/P and Br/P were both significantly influenced by precipitation and temperature. In the area be-tween Maqu and Tangnaihai hydrologic stations all the three runoff coefficients increased with the rising of annual precipitation, while direct runoff coefficient was inversely proportional to temperature. In the source regions of the Huanghe River with the increase of average annual temperature, the impacts of temperature on runoff coefficients be-come insignificant.     

Tree-ring reconstruction of streamflow for Palgong Mountain forested watershed in southeastern South Korea

Tree-ring chronologies from pine, oak and black locust tree species were used to reconstruct annual streamflow and examine hydrological drought years for Palgong Mountain forested watershed in southeastern South Korea for the period from 1954-2015. The backward elimination multiple regression analysis provided the statistically significant predictor chronologies of streamflow. The final calibration and verification test models accounted for 84.8% and 81.6%, respectively, of the variability in streamflow observed in the gage data. Further verification of the validity of the reconstructed model was undertaken with the Pearson Correlation Coefficient, the Reduction of Error Test, and the Durbin-Watson Statistics and indicated fidelity of the model for reconstructing the annual streamflow. Analyses of the reconstructed annual streamflow indicate that the most persistent years of high flows above the median annual discharge occurred from 1986-2008. This period included 7 single or multiple years of highest flow above the 90th percentile discharge and multiple years of high flows with a time interval of 2-6 years, although with intervening multiple years of low flows below the 10th and 50th percentile. In comparison, the most persistent years of low flows below the median annual discharge occurred from 1954-1985 and 2009-2015. This period included 8 single or multiple years of lowest flow below the 10th percentile discharge and multiple years of low flows with a time interval of 2-9 years, although also with intervening multiple years of high flows above the 50th percentile. No single years of extreme hydrological droughts below the 10th percentile were identified from 1986-2015 whereas a greater proportion of high flows above the 90th percentile occurred during this period. The persistent single or multiple years of lowest flows between 1954 and 1985 were the recent most critical hydrological drought years identified in the Palgong Mountain forested watershed providing supportive evidence of the severity of past hydrological droughts during that period, applicable to the southeastern South Korea where the study watershed is located. This interpretation agrees with the hydrological drought event years identified from 1951 to the early 1980s in a related national study that used precipitation proxy data to reconstruct past occurrences of droughts in Korea.     

基于TRMM降水数据的空间降尺度模拟

本研究以黑河流域为例,通过在不同空间尺度上建立降水与影响因素的关系并选择最优尺度以此进行降尺度,建立了基于地理加权回归（GWR）与高精度曲面建模方法（HASM）相结合的跨尺度统计降尺度方法,对TRMM降水数据进行了降尺度模拟。最后,结合站点观测数据采用交叉验证法对降尺度结果进行了验证。结果表明,与传统的降尺度方法相比,考虑最优尺度的降尺度方法在一定程度上提高了降尺度结果的精度,同时表明对跨尺度过程中产生的误差进行修正可进一步提高结果精度。本研究所提出的方法可用于粗分辨率降水数据的降尺度模拟,可为站点稀疏地区或地形复杂地区高分辨率高精度降水数据的获取提供方法上的支持。     

Cumulative impact of dam constructions on streamflow and sediment regime in lower reaches of the Jinsha River,China

The cumulative effect of cascade hydropower stations on river ecological environment has been widely concerned because of the significant streamflow hydrology change induced by dam constructions. The characteristics of the change in the lower reaches of the Jinsha River, China are analyzed based on long-term(1952–2015) hydrological and sedimentological data. The averaging coefficient, reservoir regulation coefficient(RRC), incoming sediment coefficient(ISC), and sediment transport modulus(STM), which reflect the variation of streamflow and sediment regimes, are defined and calculated. The results show that the construction and regulation of reservoirs reduces flow in flood season, increases flow in dry season, significantly altering the monthly discharge regimes. These alterations also led directly to changes in the timing of extreme flows at Pingshan Station. The monthly flow records at the basin outlet are reconstructed using stepwise regression, to reduce reservoir impacts. Comparisons of observed and reconstructed monthly flows demonstrate that the previous studies overestimated the cumulative effects of cascade reservoirs on flow processes. Furthermore, this study clearly illustrates that the reduction in sediment trapping and sediment transportation capacity together lead to the sharp reduction in annual sediment yield at the Pingshan Station. The earlier constructed reservoirs have more obvious effects on the ISC and STM than the more recent reservoirs and the effect of sediment trapping is related to reservoir location, on the main stream versus tributaries.     

Disintegration of uncertainties associated with real-time multi-satellite precipitation products in diverse topographic and climatic area in Pakistan

Satellite-based Precipitation Estimates(SPEs)have gained importance due to enhanced spatial and temporal resolution,particularly in Indus basin,where raingauge network has fewer observation stations and drainage area is laying in many countries.Formulation of SPEs is based on indirect mechanism,therefore,assessment and correction of associated uncertainties is required.In the present study,disintegration of uncertainties associated with four prominent real time SPEs,IMERG,TMPA,CMORPH and PERSIANN has been conducted at grid level,regional scale,and summarized in terms of regions as well as whole study area basis.The bias has been disintegrated into hit,missed,false biases,and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)into systematic and random errors.A comparison among gauge-and satellite-based precipitation estimates at annual scale,showed promising result,encouraging use of real time SPEs in the study area.On grid basis,at daily scale,from box plots,the median values of total bias(-0.5 to 0.5 mm)of the used SPEs were also encouraging although some under/over estimations were noted in terms of hit bias(-0.15 to 0.05 mm/day).Relatively higher values of missed(0.3 to 0.5 mm/day)and false(0.5 to 0.7 mm/day)biases were observed.The detected average daily RMSE,systematic errors,and random errors were also comparatively higher.Regional-scale spatial distribution of uncertainties revealed lower values of uncertainties in plain areas,depicting the better performance of satellite-based products in these areas.However,in areas of high altitude(>4000 m),due to complex topography and climatic conditions(orographic precipitation and glaciated peaks)higher values of biases and errors were observed.Topographic barriers and point scale gauge data could also be a cause of poor performance of SPEs in these areas,where precipitation is more on ridges and less in valleys where gauge stations are usually located.Precipitation system’s size and intensity can also be a reason of higher biases,because Microwave Imager underestimate precipitation in small systems(<200 km²)and overestimate in large systems(>2000 km²).At present,use of bias correction techniques at daily time scale is compulsory to utilize real time SPEs in estimation of floods in the study area.Inter comparison of satellite products indicated that IMERG gave better results than the others with the lowest values of systematic errors,missed and false biases.