Climate change projections for the surface ocean around New Zealand

The future status of the surface ocean around New Zealand was projected using two Earth System Models and four emission scenarios. By 2100 mean changes are largest under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), with a +2.5°C increase in sea surface temperature, and decreases in surface mixed layer depth (15%), macronutrients (7.5–20%), primary production (4.5%) and particle flux (12%). Largest macronutrient declines occur in the eastern Chatham Rise and subantarctic waters to the south, whereas dissolved iron increases in subtropical waters. Surface pH projections, validated against subantarctic time-series data, indicate a 0.335 decline to ～7.77 by 2100. However, projected pH is sensitive to future CO₂ emissions, remaining within the current range under RCP2.6, but decreasing below it by 2040 with all other scenarios. Sub-regions vulnerable to climate change include the Chatham Rise, polar waters south of 50°S, and subtropical waters north of New Zealand, whereas the central Tasman Sea is least affected.     

涡分辨率模式模拟的南海中尺度涡旋

Mesoscale eddies(MEs) in the South China Sea(SCS) simulated by a quasi-global eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model are evaluated against satellite data during 1993–2007. The modeled ocean data show more activity than shown by the satellite data and reproduces more eddies in the SCS. A total of 345(428) cyclonic eddies(CEs) and 330(371) anti-cyclonic eddies(AEs) generated for satellite(model) data are identified during the study period, showing increase of ~24% and ~12% for the model data, respectively. Compared with eddies in satellite, the simulated eddies tend to have smaller radii, larger amplitudes, a slightly longer lifetime, faster movement and rotation speed, a slightly larger nonlinear properties(U/c) in the model. However, the spatial distribution of generated eddies appears to be inhomogeneous, with more CEs in the northern part of SCS and fewer AEs in the southern part. This is attributed to the exaggerated Kuroshio intrusion in the model because the small islands in the Luzon Strait are still not well resolved although the horizontal resolution reaches(1/10)°. The seasonal variability in the number and the amplitude of eddies generated is also investigated.     

Semi-Lagrangian methods for a finite element coastal ocean model

Coastal ocean hydrodynamic models are subject to a number of stability constraints. The most important of these are the Courant–Friedrichs–Levy (CFL) constraint on gravity waves, a Courant (Cr) number constraint on advection, and a time step constraint on the vertical component of viscous stresses. The model described here removes these constraints using a semi-implicit approximation in time and a semi-Lagrangian approximation for advection. The accuracy and efficiency of semi-Lagrangian methods depends crucially on the methods used to calculate trajectories and interpolate at the foot of the trajectory. The focus of this paper is on evaluation of several new and old semi-Langrangian methods. In particular, we compare 3 methods to calculate trajectories (Runge–Kutta (RK2), analytical integration (AN), power-series expansion (PS)) and 3 methods to interpolate (local linear (LL), global linear (GL), global quadratic (GQ)) on unstructured grids. The AN and PS methods are both efficient and accurate, and the latter can be expanded in a straightforward manner to treat time-dependent velocity. The GQ interpolation method provides a major step in introducing efficient and accurate semi-Lagrangian methods to unstructured grids.     

Predicting seasonal ocean variability around New Zealand using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

We present a first assessment of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and 300m Heat Content (HC) ensemble mean skill of the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator-Seasonal v1.0 (ACCESS-S1) around New Zealand on seasonal timescales, using a set of retrospective ensemble forecasts for 1990-2012. This was verified against Reynolds AVHRR analysis and Bluelink ReANalysis 3.5 (BRAN3.5). For inshore areas with depth <300m, the model shows skill forecasting for summer at a lead time of 0 months, with 66% and 65% of model grid cells having correlation coefficients exceeding 0.6 for SST and 300m HC respectively. Regions of lower skill seem to be associated with the model representation of the complex and variable frontal systems around New Zealand, and an overly-strong response to the El Niño Southern-Oscillation (ENSO). Nevertheless, the skill of ACCESS-S1 around New Zealand suggests there is potential for the development of useful seasonal forecast products for the region.     

基于大涡模拟和局部滤波同化方法的海洋环流模式

结合最小二乘法极值原理,提出了一种基于局部谱展开的滤波同化方法,把测量数据和数值计算过程中出现的高频短波滤掉,并将高度计数据同化到了求解过程中.结果既增加了数值稳定性,又提高了数值模拟的准确性.针对在海洋环流问题中水平的流动性质和垂直的不同的特点,我们还将大涡模拟的思想和直接涡黏的思想分别应用于水平方向和垂直方向,给出的方法是一种适用于海洋环流和浅水环流问题的大涡模拟湍流模式.对热带和北太平洋一年四季非定常季风作用下环流的数值模拟表明,提出的方法非常有效,数值结果与实际相当吻合.     

A spectral barotropic model of the wind-driven world ocean

A global spectral barotropic ocean model is introduced to describe the depth-averaged flow. The equations are based on vorticity and divergence (instead of horizontal momentum); continents exert a nearly infinite drag on the fluid. The coding follows that of spectral atmospheric general circulation models using triangular truncation and implicit time integration to provide a first step for seamless coupling to spectral atmospheric global circulation models and an efficient method for filtering of ocean wave dynamics. Five experiments demonstrate the model performance: (i) Bounded by an idealized basin geometry and driven by a zonally uniform wind stress, the ocean circulation shows close similarity with Munk’s analytical solution. (ii) With a real land–sea mask the model is capable of reproducing the spin-up, location and magnitudes of depth-averaged barotropic ocean currents. (iii) The ocean wave-dynamics of equatorial waves, excited by a height perturbation at the equator, shows wave dispersion and reflection at eastern and western coastal boundaries. (iv) The model reproduces propagation times of observed surface gravity waves in the Pacific with real bathymetry. (v) Advection of tracers can be simulated reasonably by the spectral method or a semi-Langrangian transport scheme. This spectral barotropic model may serve as a first step towards an intermediate complexity spectral atmosphere–ocean model for studying atmosphere–ocean interactions in idealized setups and long term climate variability beyond millennia.     

一维海洋混合层模式应用于二维数值模拟的试验研究

基于一个一维湍能海洋混合层模式,发展了一个易于与大气或海洋模式耦合的,可应用于水平二维空间的模块化海洋混合层模式。并加入垂直上翻参数化方案,引入日平均海面温度及气候态松弛项,进行二维海洋模拟理想气旋实验和飓风实例模拟实验。理想气旋强迫实验表明,垂直上翻过程的参数化方案可有效地弥补原有一维海洋混合层模式无法形成气旋中心动力上翻的不足,消除了虚假暖水核心。卡特里娜飓风个例实验的结果表明,加入垂直上翻后,飓风中心附近的海表面温度误差明显减小。海洋混合层模式对海洋表面温度日变化模拟能力在二维应用中依然表现良好。经过上述改进,发展的海洋混合层模式可以较为真实地模拟平常海表温度高频日变化的同时,还对剧烈天气过程也有一定的模拟能力,具有广泛的应用前景。     

Evolving a Bayesian network model with information flow for time series interpolation of multiple ocean variables

Based on Bayesian network (BN) and information flow (IF), a new machine learning-based model named IFBN is put forward to interpolate missing time series of multiple ocean variables. An improved BN structural learning algorithm with IF is designed to mine causal relationships among ocean variables to build network structure. Nondirectional inference mechanism of BN is applied to achieve the synchronous interpolation of multiple missing time series. With the IFBN, all ocean variables are placed in a causal network visually, making full use of information about related variables to fill missing data. More importantly, the synchronous interpolation of multiple variables can avoid model retraining when interpolative objects change. Interpolation experiments show that IFBN has even better interpolation accuracy, effectiveness and stability than existing methods.     

Estimation of eddy heat transport in the global ocean from Argo data

The Argo data are used to calculate eddy(turbulence)heat transport(EHT)in the global ocean and analyze its horizontal distribution and vertical structure.We calculate the EHT by averaging all the v′,T′profiles within each 2×2 bin.The velocity and temperature anomalies are obtained by removing their climatological values from the Argo"instantaneous"values respectively.Through the Student’s t-test and an error evaluation,we obtained a total of 87%Argo bins with significant depth-integrated EHTs(D-EHTs).The results reveal a positive-and-negative alternating D-EHT pattern along the western boundary currents(WBC)and Antarctic Circumpolar Current(ACC).The zonally-integrated D-EHT(ZI-EHT)of the global ocean reaches 0.12 PW in the northern WBC band and–0.38 PW in the ACC band respectively.The strong ZI-EHT across the ACC in the global ocean is mainly caused by the southern Indian Ocean.The ZI-EHT in the above two bands accounts for a large portion of the total oceanic heat transport,which may play an important role in regulating the climate.The analysis of vertical structures of the EHT along the 35 N and45 S section reveals that the oscillating EHT pattern can reach deep in the northern WBC regions and the Agulhas Return Current(ARC)region.It also shows that the strong EHT could reach 600 m in the WBC regions and 1 000 m in the ARC region,with the maximum mainly located between 100 and 400 m depth.The results would provide useful information for improving the parameterization scheme in models.     

An ocean-land-atmosphere coupled model for tropical cyclone landfall processes:The multilayer ocean model and its verification

1 IntroductionA landfalltropicalcyclone (TC) alwaysbringsaboutsevere weathersuch as heavy rain and strong-wind.Currently,predictionofsuch severeweatherde-pendsheavilyontheforecasters’experience, whichisgenerally qualitative and cannotm eetthe demandsofop…     

区域海洋立体监测系统潜在经济效益

区域海洋立体监测系统的建立旨在提供全面的、系统的海洋动力环境和生态环境信息共享资料，为区域性海洋防灾减灾和海洋环境管理提供实时信息的网络平台．本文通过费一效分析的方法，初步测算了台湾海峡及毗邻海域海洋动力环境实时立体监测系统潜在的年经济效益超过29692．8万元，对区域海洋管理的决策具有重要意义．     

A non-hydrostatic ocean model with a scalable multigrid Poisson solver

A non-hydrostatic ocean model using an effective Poisson solver is developed. The Poisson solver is a combination of the multigrid method, the Krylov-subspace method, and the sparse approximate inverse. Its numerical cost only linearly increases with total number of computational cells, and it also has high parallel computing efficiency. The numerical cost of the non-hydrostatic model described in the present paper remains only twice of that of a hydrostatic model, even with non-smooth topography and with a huge number of computational grid cells on massively parallelized computer systems. Therefore, it has a potential to expand the applicability of non-hydrostatic ocean models. We also present the preliminary result of the high-resolution non-hydrostatic experiment on Ice Shelf Water overflow in the southern Weddell Sea, which shows good agreement with observations in terms of the pathway of dense water and velocity field.     

21世纪初海洋预报系统发展现状和趋势

海洋预报是一切海上活动的基础,人类社会需求驱动着海洋预报的发展。海洋观测、数据同化、数值模拟和高性能计算机等技术的进步推动着全球海洋业务预报的发展。国际先进的海洋数值模式有NLOM、NCOM、HYCOM、NEMO、MOM、POM和ROMS等。在GODAE和GODAEOceanView项目期间,通过国际合作和交流,全球海洋业务预报系统得到快速发展。21世纪初,全球海洋预报系统水平分辨率最高达到1/32°,预报时效一般为一周,部分海洋预报系统能够预报诊断海洋涡旋和海洋锋等。未来海洋预报系统的分辨率和预报精度将继续提高,预报要素扩展到海洋生态和生物地球化学等学科。海洋数据同化技术、海洋物理过程参数化方案和模式耦合技术是推动海洋预报发展的重要研究方向。     

Bifurcation analysis of 3D ocean flows using a parallel fully-implicit ocean model

To understand the physics and dynamics of the ocean circulation, techniques of numerical bifurcation theory such as continuation methods have proved to be useful. Up to now these techniques have been applied to models with relatively few degrees of freedom such as multi-layer quasi-geostrophic and shallow-water models and relatively low-resolution (e.g., 4° horizontal resolution) primitive equation models. In this paper, we present a new approach in which continuation methods are combined with parallel numerical linear system solvers. With this implementation, we show that it is possible to compute steady states versus parameters (and perform fully implicit time integration) of primitive equation ocean models with up to a few million degrees of freedom.     

台湾岛附近海洋对0908号台风“莫拉克”的响应特征

在模拟2009年登陆我国东部沿海的台风"莫拉克"的基础上,利用AVHRR/AMSR和SODA再分析数据和模拟结果,初步评估了GRAPES-ECOM海-气耦合模式(上海台风研究所基于GRAPES-TCM区域台风模式和ECOM海洋模式开发而成)模拟台风期间海洋响应的能力,并分析了台风期间台湾岛周围海域的海温、上升流、中尺度冷涡等的变化特点。分析结果表明,GRAPES-ECOM耦合模式较好地模拟了表层海温对台风的响应,与深水海洋响应比较,揭示了近海对台风响应的一些新特征:(1)在台湾以东海域,台风活动改变了黑潮海域海水的垂直运动,诱导黑潮南部沿岸上升流,而北部先于台风存在的上升流减弱,导致不同水深海温的最大降温位置都出现在路径左侧,与深海偏向路径右侧不同;(2)位于台湾岛东北面的彭佳屿冷涡因其形成与大陆架和黑潮有关,当台风在台湾以东洋面活动时,冷涡位于台风右前方,黑潮表层海水辐合流向大陆架,冷涡中心温度上升,强度减弱,当台风转折北上,冷涡位于台风东南侧,表层海水辐散,加强底层冷水上涌,从而增强了该冷涡的强度;(3)台风不仅加深了台湾海峡的混合层深度,还使得海水的垂直热力结构改变,并使整层海温趋于一致。     

包含温度因子的海水地球物理模型函数建模研究

以SeaWinds散射计为例,利用其L2A卫星测量数据和相应的海面浮标测量数据,以温度作为独立变量,借助人工神经网络首次尝试建立了包含温度因子的海水地球物理模型函数。建模实验结果表明,在3—15m.s-1风速范围内,对于两种极化方式,后向散射系数先随温度的升高而增大,当风速大于某一数值后,又随温度的升高而减小,但两种极化方式的转折风速存在差异。该研究结果为海面微波散射机理认识的进一步深入和模型函数精度的进一步提高展示了潜在的可能途径。     

基于海面多普勒谱模型的海浪反演精度分析

Microwave remote sensing is one of the most useful methods for observing the ocean parameters. The Doppler frequency or interferometric phase of the radar echoes can be used for an ocean surface current speed retrieval,which is widely used in spaceborne and airborne radars. While the effect of the ocean currents and waves is interactional. It is impossible to retrieve the ocean surface current speed from Doppler frequency shift directly. In order to study the relationship between the ocean surface current speed and the Doppler frequency shift, a numerical ocean surface Doppler spectrum model is established and validated with a reference. The input parameters of ocean Doppler spectrum include an ocean wave elevation model, a directional distribution function, and wind speed and direction. The suitable ocean wave elevation spectrum and the directional distribution function are selected by comparing the ocean Doppler spectrum in C band with an empirical geophysical model function(CDOP). What is more, the error sensitivities of ocean surface current speed to the wind speed and direction are analyzed. All these simulations are in Ku band. The simulation results show that the ocean surface current speed error is sensitive to the wind speed and direction errors. With VV polarization, the ocean surface current speed error is about 0.15 m/s when the wind speed error is 2 m/s, and the ocean surface current speed error is smaller than 0.3 m/s when the wind direction error is within 20° in the cross wind direction.     

球坐标系下MASNUM海浪数值模式的建立及其应用

为开展海浪对海洋上混合层的搅拌混合作用及其对海气界面通量的影响等研究,在LAGFD WAM区域海浪数值模式基础上建立了球坐标系下的全球海浪数值模式.重点导出了球坐标系下的海浪能量谱平衡方程及其复杂特征线方程,该组方程包含了背景流场对波动传播的调整、波动沿大圆传播的折射等.数值积分则采用复杂特征线嵌入计算格式.初步数值模拟结果表明,该海浪全球数值模式能够较为精确地刻画海浪的动力过程.     

引潮力对海洋环流模式的影响

The eight main tidal constituents have been implemented in the global ocean general circulation model with approximate 1° horizontal resolution.Compared with the observation data,the patterns of the tidal amplitudes and phases had been simulated fairly well.The responses of mean circulation,temperature and salinity are further investigated in the global sense.When implementing the tidal forcing,wind-driven circulations are reduced,especially those in coastal regions.It is also found that the upper cell transport of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC) reduces significantly,while its deep cell transport is slightly enhanced from 9×106m3/s to 10×106 m3/s.The changes of circulations are all related to the increase of a bottom friction and a vertical viscosity due to the tidal forcing.The temperature and salinity of the model are also significantly affected by the tidal forcing through the enhanced bottom friction,mixing and the changes in mean circulation.The largest changes occur in the coastal regions,where the water is cooled and freshened.In the open ocean,the changes are divided into three layers:cooled and freshened on the surface and below 3 000 m,and warmed and salted in the middle in the open ocean.In the upper two layers,the changes are mainly caused by the enhanced mixing,as warm and salty water sinks and cold and fresh water rises;whereas in the deep layer,the enhancement of the deep overturning circulation accounts for the cold and fresh changes in the deep ocean.     

Spatial information recognizing of ocean eddies based on virtual force field and its application

A new approach to detecting ocean eddies automatically from remote sensing imageries based on the ocean eddy's eigen-pattern in remote sensing imagery and "force field-based shape extracting method" is proposed. First, the analysis on extracting eddies' edges from remote sensing imagery using conventional edge detection arithmetic operators is performed and returns digitized vector edge data as a result. Second, attraction forces and fusion forces between edge curves were analyzed and calculated based on the vector eddy edges. Thirdly, the virtual significant spatial patterns of eddy were detected automatically using iterative repetition followed by optimized rule. Finally, the spatial form auto-detection of different types of ocean eddies was done using satellite images. The study verified that this is an effective way to identify and detect the ocean eddy with a complex form.