Orbit determination of space debris: admissible regions

The main problem in the orbit determination of the space debris population orbiting our planet is identifying which separate sets of data belong to the same physical object. The observations of a given object during a passage above an observing station are collectively called a Too Short Arc (TSA): data from a TSA cannot allow for a complete determination of an orbit. Therefore, we have to solve first the identification problem, finding two or more TSAs belonging to the same physical object and an orbit fitting all the observations. This problem is well known for the determination of orbits of asteroids: we shall show how to apply the methods developed for preliminary orbit determination of heliocentric objects to geocentric objects. We shall focus on the definition of an admissible region for space debris, both in the case of optical observations and radar observations; then we shall outline a strategy to perform a full orbit determination.     

Orbit of an Astrometric Binary System

We present a new method to solve the problem of initial orbit determination of any binary system. This method is mainly based on the material available for an observer, for example relative positions at a given time of the couple in the “plane of sky”, namely the tangent plane to the celestial sphere at the position of the primary component. The problem of orbit determination is solved by splitting in successive stages in order to decorrelate the parameters of each other as much as possible. On one hand, the geometric problem is solved using the first Kepler’s law from a single observing run and, on the other hand, dynamical parameters are then inferred from the fit of the Kepler’s equation. At last, the final stage consists in determining the main physical parameters involved in the secular evolution of the system, that is the spin axis and the J₂ parameter of the primary if we assume that it is a quasi-spherical body. As a matter of fact there is no need to make too restrictive initial assumptions (such as circular orbit or zero eccentricity) and initial guesses of parameters required by a non-linear least-squares Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm are finally obtained after each stage. Such a protocol is very useful to study systems like binary asteroids for which all of the parameters should be considered a priori as unknowns. As an example of application, we used our method to estimate the set of the Pluto–Charon system parameters from observations collected in the literature since 1980.     

The determination of the satellite orbit of Mariner 9

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the Mars orbital phase of the Mariner 9 trajectory as determined from Earth based radio data. Both the method and accuracy of the orbit determination process are reviewed. Analysis is presented to show the effects of Mars gravity model and node in the plane of the sky errors on the accuracy of orbit determination. In addition the long term evolution of the orbit from insertion through the first 500 revolutions is presented, and decomposed into effects from the Mars garvity field,n-body perturbations, and solar radiation pressure. Since the orbit period is nearly commensurable with the Mars rotational period, the orbit experiences significant resonance perturbations. The primary perturbation is in-track with a maximum amplitude of 1000 km and a wavelength of 39 spacecraft revolutions.This paper was presented at the AIAA/AAS Astrodynamics Conference, Palo Alto, California, September 11 and 12, 1972. At this time Mariner 9 operations were still underway. The operational life of Mariner 9 ended October 27, 1972, when the supply of nitrogen gas, used for attitude stabilization, was depleted. This paper represents one phase of research carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, under NASA Contract No. NAS 7-100.     

The Effect of GPS Ephemeris on the Accuracy of Precise Orbit Determination of LEO Satellite-borne GPS

The satellite-borne GPS receivers dedicated to precise orbit determination are now being carried by more and more low earth orbit (LEO) satellites and the satellite-borne GPS has become one of the main means for the precise orbit determination of low earth orbit satellites. The accuracy of satellite-borne GPS precise orbit determination depends on the accuracies of the GPS ephemeris and the clock error. Based on the orbit determination function of SHORDEIII zero-difference dynamics and using the observational data obtained by the GRACE satellites for the week from 2005 August 1 to 7 as an example, three versions of GPS ephemerides (igs, igr and igu) are used to carry out orbit determination under the same conditions and to estimate the effect of the GPS ephemeris accuracy on the accuracy of orbit determination of low earth orbit satellites. Our calculated results show that the two ephemerides, igs and igr, are equivalent to each other in orbit determination accuracy (about 9.5 cm), while igu is slightly less accurate, at about 10.5 cm. The effect produced by the data of the high frequency GPS satellite clock error on the accuracy of orbit determination is 1–6 cm.     

一种适用于长弧段的初轨计算方法

根据单位矢量法测轨原理，在人造卫星初轨计算的单位矢量法基础上，给出了一种适用于长弧段的初轨计算方法．该方法既适用于长弧段，也适用于短弧段；适用于各种不同类型的观测资料和任意偏心率、任意轨道倾角的人造地球卫星；有利于提高初轨测定精度；并改善整个计算收敛性．特别需要指出的是，该方法与有摄初轨计算的单位矢量法相结合，为单位矢量法从初轨计算推广到轨道改进打下了坚实的基础．     

Single lunation <Emphasis Type="Italic">N</Emphasis>-observation orbits

Initial orbit determination by least squares of N observations is essentially a linear problem if the coordinates x ₀ and x ₁ at two standard epochs are used as elements. The orbit of a main belt object is approximated within the observational errors by a third degree polynomial during a month. A 4-observation orbit is useful for the initial linking between two nights. Parallax is treated rigorously and future simultaneous space and Earth based observations determine the critical distance directly. The N-observation method is a great simplification of the classical 3-observation orbit followed by a differential correction by N observations.     

Initial orbit determination using multiple observations

A novel approach for initial orbit determination based on multiple angles-only observations is presented. The proposed technique is iterative and uses Lagrangian coefficients, f and g. The proposed method does not show singularity for the coplanar cases. In addition, the method is capable of handling multiple observations, providing higher accuracy, whereas the level of the algorithm complexity and processor running time remain almost invariant. The technique presented is compared with the Double r-iteration and Gauss’ methods using data corrupted by noise to simulate true measurements. Results show that the proposed method is a valid alternative to the classical methods of orbit determination.     

On the determination of potential function

Szebehely's renowned equation given in 1974, allowing for potential determination from a given orbit or family of orbits, is proved to be equivalent with an equation deduced in 1963 by Drǎmbǎ. This basic equation in the inverse problem of dynamics, for which the denomination of Drǎmbǎ –Szebehely equation is proposed, is generalized for the motion in the n-dimensional Euclidean space. A method for the determination of the potential function from motion equations is extended to this space.     

TV Observation of the Daytime Meteor Shower; The Arietids

We have carried out multi-station TV observations since 1994 in order to determine the orbit of the Arietid daytime meteor stream. In 1999, one possible Arietid meteor was recorded by our simultaneous observations and its orbit was determined. In 2003, two Arietid meteors were observed from two stations of our observing site, those orbits were determined precisely, the orbital elements were in good agreement with each other. This is the first time that determination of the precise orbit of the Arietids has been made from optical observations. The orbit of these Arietid meteors, and comparison with the orbit obtained from radar observations are discussed.     

同步卫星短弧定轨

同步卫星受到摄动力的影响,它的实际轨道有一点漂移．卫星需要不断的调轨调姿,以保证其正常运行．为了研究卫星在几小时,甚至更短的时间内的轨迹情况,采用短弧段定轨法．用动力学方法进行短弧定轨,分别研究1小时和15分钟定轨并进行比较,目的是为了在同步轨道卫星变轨后,能尽快地为卫星提供精密的预报轨道．此外,在系列短弧定轨后,得到精密轨道系列,为研究轨道变化的力学因素及研究短弧中卫星转发器时延变化规律等提供依据．     

抗差估计在星载GPS卫星非差运动学定轨中的应用

针对星载GPS卫星非差运动学定轨的特点,提出将抗差估计应用于星载GPS卫星运动学定轨,一方面尽量保留来自每颗GPS卫星的观测值,保持较强的卫星几何强度,避免轨道求解出现奇异;另一方面,采用等价权思想,有效地降低质量较差的观测值对定轨结果的影响,保证定轨精度．还采用CHAMP卫星的实测GPS数据验证了新方案的可行性和有效性．     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">N</Emphasis>-observations and radar orbits

Initial asteriod orbits are determined by a least squares adjustment of an arbitrary number (N) of optical and radar observations. The usual separation, into an orbit determination by three observations and a subsequent differential orbit improvement, is combined into a single algorithm. A priori information is used for very small arcs. Ephemerides very suitable for linking are obtained by strictly linear computations.     

Determination of the parabolic orbit for a body moving in the plane of the ecliptic,by the Laplace method

A modification of the Laplace method for the determination of a preliminary orbit of a body moving in the plane of the ecliptic is presented. It is shown that on the basis of three close positions on the celestial sphere, the parabolic orbit can be determined in cases, when the classical Laplace method is not suitable. The numerical estimation of the number of possible solutions is carried out, and their spatial distribution depending on initial conditions is shown. An example of the determination of an orbit for the comet C/2007 N3 (Lulin) is given.     

An Accuracy Analysis of the SGP4/SDP4 Model

Based on the latest release of the SGP4/SDP4 (Simplified General Perturbation Version 4/ Simplified Deep-space Perturbation Version 4) model, in this paper we have designed an orbit determination program. Through calculations for the 1120 objects with various types and orbital elements selected from the space objects database, we have obtained the accuracies of the orbit determination prediction dealt with various types of space objects by the SGP4/SDP4 model. The results show that the accuracies of the near-earth objects are in the order of magnitude of 100 meters; the averages of the orbit determination accuracies of the semi-synchronous and geosynchronous orbits are, respectively, 0.7 and 1.9 km. The orbit determination accuracies of the elliptical orbit objects are related to their eccentricities. Except for few elliptical orbit objects with e > 0.8, the orbit determination errors of the vast majority of the elliptical orbit objects are all less than 10 km. By using the SGP4/SDP4 model to make 3 days predictions for near-earth objects, 30 days for semi-synchronous orbit objects, 15 days for geosynchronous orbit objects and 1 day for elliptical orbit objects, the errors of prediction generally don’t exceed 40 km.     

Dynamical History of the Earth–Moon System

Differential equations describing the tidal evolution of the earth's rotation and of the lunar orbital motion are presented in a simple close form. The equations differ in form for orbits fixed to the terrestrial equator and for orbits with the nodes precessing along the ecliptic due to solar perturbations. Analytical considerations show that if the contemporary lunar orbit were equatorial the evolution would develop from an unstable geosynchronous orbit of the period about 4.42 h (in the past) to a stable geosynchronous orbit of the period about 44.8 days (in the future). It is also demonstrated that at the contemporary epoch the orbital plane of the fictitious equatorial moon would be unstable in the Liapunov's sense, being asymptotically stable at early stages of the evolution. Evolution of the currently near-ecliptical lunar orbit and of the terrestrial rotation is traced backward in time by numerical integration of the evolutional equations. It is confirmed that about 1.8 billion years ago a critical phase of the evolution took place when the equatorial inclination of the moon reached small values and the moon was in a near vicinity of the earth. Before the critical epoch t _cr two types of the evolution are possible, which at present cannot be unambiguously distinguished with the help of the purely dynamical considerations. In the scenario that seems to be the most realistic from the physical point of view, the evolution also has started from a geosynchronous equatorial lunar orbit of the period 4.19 h. At t < t _cr the lunar orbit has been fixed to the precessing terrestrial equator by strong perturbations from the earth's flattening and by tidal effects; at the critical epoch the solar perturbations begin to dominate and transfer the moon to its contemporary near-ecliptical orbit which evolves now to the stable geosynchronous state. Probably this scenario is in favour of the Darwin's hypothesis about originating the moon by its separation from the earth. Too much short time scale of the evolution in this model might be enlarged if the dissipative Q factor had somewhat larger values in the past than in the present epoch. Values of the length of day and the length of month, estimated from paleontological data, are confronted with the results of the developed model.     

Topocentric orbit determination: Algorithms for the next generation surveys

The process of calculating a good orbit from astrometric observations of the same object involves three main steps: preliminary orbit determination, least squares orbit fitting, and quality control assessing the orbit's uncertainty and reliability. For the next generation sky surveys, with much larger number density of observations, new algorithms, or at least substantial revisions of the classical ones, are needed. The classical theory of preliminary orbit algorithms was incomplete in that the consequences of the topocentric correction had not been fully studied. We show that it is possible to rigorously account for topocentric observations and that this correction may increase the number of alternate preliminary orbits without impairing the overall performance. We have developed modified least squares algorithms including the capability of fitting the orbit to a reduced number of parameters. The restricted fitting techniques can be used to improve the reliability of the orbit computing procedure when the observed arcs have small curvature. False identification (where observations of different objects are incorrectly linked together) can be discarded with a quality control on the residuals and a ‘normalization’ procedure removing duplications and contradictions. We have tested our algorithms on two simulations based on the expected performance of Pan-STARRS—one of the next generation all-sky surveys. The results confirm that large sets of discoveries can be handled very efficiently resulting in good quality orbits. In these tests we lost only 0.6 to 1.3% of the possible objects, with a false identification rate in the range 0.02 to 0.06%.     

From Astrometry to Celestial Mechanics: Orbit Determination with Very Short Arcs

Contemporary surveys provide a huge number of detections of small solar system bodies, mostly asteroids. Typically, the reported astrometry is not enough to compute an orbit and/or perform an identification with an already discovered object. The classical methods for preliminary orbit determination fail in such cases: a new approach is necessary. When the observations are not enough to compute an orbit we represent the data with an attributable (two angles and their time derivatives). The undetermined variables range and range rate span an admissible region of solar system orbits, which can be sampled by a set of Virtual Asteroids (VAs) selected by an optimal triangulation. The attributable results from a fit and has an uncertainty represented by a covariance matrix, thus the predictions of future observations can be described by a quasi-product structure (admissible region times confidence ellipsoid), which can be approximated by a triangulation with each node surrounded by a confidence ellipsoid. The problem of identifying two independent short arcs of observations has been solved. For each VA in the admissible region of the first arc we consider prediction at the time of the second arc and the corresponding covariance matrix, and we compare them with the attributable of the second arc with its own covariance. By using the penalty (increase in the sum of squares, as in the algorithms for identification) we select the VAs which can fit together both arcs and compute a preliminary orbit. Even two attributables may not be enough to compute an orbit with a convergent differential corrections algorithm. The preliminary orbits are used as first guess for constrained differential corrections, providing solutions along the Line Of Variations (LOV) which can be used as second generation VAs to further predict the observations at the time of a third arc. In general the identification with a third arc will ensure a least squares orbit, with uncertainty described by the covariance matrix.     

Is Comet C/1853 E1 (Secchi) extrasolar?

Comet C/1853 E1 (Secchi) has a hyperbolic orbit with eccentricity 1.01060 and perihelion outside of the Earth's orbit. Integrating the orbit with barycentric coordinates backwards to 50000 AU, the approximate edge of the Oort cloud, shows that the orbit remains hyperbolic. This is still true even if plutoids additional to Pluto are included in the integration. Nor does including Galactic tidal and disc effects and possible nongravitational forces change the orbit to a high eccentricity ellipse. Although certain factors, such as unknown massive plutoids, gravitational effects by interstellar gas clouds, or unmodelled nongravitational forces operating on the comet, could change this situation, the tentative conclusion that the origin of this comet is extrasolar remains the one most consistent with the observations (© 2011 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Orbit of Comet C/1857 D1 (d'Arrest)

Comet C/ 1857 D1 (d'Arrest) is one of a large number of comets with parabolic orbits. Given that there are sufficient observations of the comet, 299 in right ascension and 279 in declination, it proves possible to calculate a better orbit. The calculations are based on a 12th order predictor‐corrector method. The comet's orbit is highly elliptical, e = 0.99982 and, from calculated mean errors, statistically different from a parabola. The comet will not return for at least 44000 years and thus represents no immediate NEO threat (© 2011 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

星载GPS自主定轨的长期稳定性

通过模拟长达100天的星载GPS伪距观测资料,进行卡尔曼滤波定轨仿真计算．重点研究：1)采用简化的动力学模型与简化状态转移矩阵,是否保证滤波的长期稳定性；2)模型误差矩阵Q的选取对滤波定轨精度的影响；3)与事后最小二乘批处理相比较,在简化模型下自主定轨的精度．同时给出了相应的结论．