Distribution of extreme solar energetic proton fluxes

The knowledge of the high intensity tails of probability distributions that determine the rate of occurrence of extreme events of solar energetic particles is a critical element in the evaluation of hazards for human and robotic space missions. Here instead of the standard approach based on fitting a selected distribution function to the observed data we investigate a different approach, which is based on a study of the scaling properties of the maximum particle flux in time intervals of increasing length. To find the tail of the probability distributions we apply the “Max-Spectrum” method (Stoev, S.A., Michailidis, G., 2006. On the estimation of the heavy-tail exponent in time series using the Max-Spectrum. Technical Report 447, Department of Statistics, University of Michigan) to 1973–1997 IMP-8 proton data and the 1987–2008 GOES data, which cover a wide range of proton energies. We find that both data sets indicate a power-law tail with the power exponents close to 0.6 at least in the energy range 9–60 MeV. The underlying probability distribution is consistent with the Fréchet type (power-law behavior) extreme value distribution. Since the production of high fluxes of energetic particles is caused by fast Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) this heavy-tailed distribution also means that the Sun generates more fast CMEs than would be expected from a Poissonian-type process.     

Certain features of UHF propagation during solar proton events

Results of the experimental reception of the UHF signal from geostationary satellite, visible at a low elevation angle from the receiving point, have been considered. It has been noted that the fluctuation intensity considerably increases during powerful solar proton events. The observed effect can be caused by interference between direct and secondary rays related to tropospheric irregularities. The hypothesis explaining obtained results based on the optical model of solar-tropospheric coupling is proposed.     

中国大陆主要地震活动区中小地震震源参数研究

本文利用中国大陆几个主要地震活动区近几年积累的大量ML≥3.0数字地震观测记录,在分别反演得到13个不同构造研究区域的介质衰减模型、348个台站的场地效应的基础上,自0.1~20 Hz的SH观测波形数据中逐步消除了仪器、噪声、几何扩散、传播路径的介质衰减、台站场地效应等影响后,恢复了2573次3.0≤ML≤6.0地震的震源谱,采用ω平方震源模型拟合震源谱后,利用Brune的圆盘模型计算了它们的震源参数,并讨论了中国大陆中小地震的震源特征,比较了中国大陆不同地区的应力降释放水平,综合讨论了地震应力降与震源深度、机制解类型、地震大小等各种因素的关系.研究表明,中国大陆中小地震释放的应力降在0.1~20 MPa之间,绝大多数在10 MPa以下.新疆天山中东段地区、青藏块体东北缘及龙门山断裂带东北缘是高应力降地震集中的区域,表明这里的断层受到相对较强的构造剪应力作用.中小地震释放的应力降随着震级的增大而增大,应力降Δσ∝M03.14,不遵循常数应力降模型.在深度20 km以内,中小地震释放的应力降对深度的依赖不显著,但在20 km以上深度显示出随深度增大而增大的现象.中小地震释放的应力降没有表现出与震源机制类型的相关性.本研究实现了震源参数的准实时计算,丰富了大陆块体内部地震震源定标率关系研究的样本.可以预见,随着中小地震数据的大量产出和积累,这些震源参数的时空分布特征研究将会为地震预测预报研究提供有实际物理意义的依据,得到的介质衰减模型及场地效应等也将对台网日常震级ML测定所需的量规函数、台站校正值的研究提供重要参考.     

Increase in the carbon dioxide infrared emissions during solar proton events

Increase in the nighttime high-latitude nonthermal emissions in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere in the 4.3 and 15 μm CO₂ bands during solar proton events has been estimated for the first time. The estimations have been performed for protons with energies not lower than 1 MeV precipitating into the atmosphere. A strong increase in the 4.3 μm emission can be anticipated during the above events; however, a substantial increase in the 15 μm emission is improbable. The 4.3 μm emission can increase only above approximately 80 km regardless of the energy of precipitating protons. The excitation of CO₂ vibrational states, transitions from which generate the 4.3 μm emission, is caused by the vibrational excitation of N₂ molecules due to collisions with secondary electrons, produced during solar proton events, and the following transfer of this excitation to CO₂(00⁰1) molecules during N₂-CO₂ collisions. Original Russian Text ? V.P. Ogibalov, S.N. Khvorostovskii, G.M. Shved, 2006, published in Geomagnetizm i Aeronomiya, 2006, Vol. 46, No. 2, pp. 159–167.     

Active regions and the large scale flow in the solar photosphere

Summary Statistics on sunspot leaders and followers in active regions are derived from the 50 years of Greenwich records 1905–1954. The results are combined with the probable structure of large scale solar eddies as synthesized from various relevant pieces of information. It is found that active regions tend to be located in anticyclonic ridges of the large disturbances. The statistical leader and follower populations are further subdivided, each into new and old spot classifications. The new leaders, especially, show motions different from those of other spots, suggesting the presence of a life cycle for the large disturbances. It is found that the divergence and vorticity are positive and anticyclonic, respectively, for the new active regions, the former quantity being numerically larger than the latter in this case. Various possible implications of the material are discussed.     

Geomagnetic signatures of sudden ionospheric disturbances during extreme solar radiation events

We performed a comparative study of geomagnetic variations, which are associated with sudden ionospheric disturbances (SIDs) caused by great X-class solar flares on July 14, 2000 (Bastille flare) and on October 28, 2003 (Halloween flare). Intense fluxes of solar X-rays and EUV radiation as well as solar energetic particles (SEP) were considered as sources of abundant ionization of the ionosphere and upper atmosphere. Flare-initiated SIDs are revealed as transient geomagnetic variations, which are generated by enhanced electric currents flowing mainly in the bottom-side ionosphere. Those so-called solar flare effects (SFEs) were studied by using of geomagnetic data from INTERMAGNET worldwide network of ground-based magnetometers. In subsolar region the SFE is mainly controlled by the flare X-rays and/or EUV radiation. We found that in the Halloween flare the contribution of X-rays was comparable with the EUV, but in the Bastille flare the EUV flux was dominant. The ionization at high latitudes is generated by the SEP, which energy flux is comparable and even exceeds the solar electromagnetic radiation in that region. It was shown that in the Halloween event the pattern of SFE is formed by a two-vortex current system, which is similar to the quiet day Sq current system. However, during the Bastille flare, the pattern of induced currents is quite different: the northern vortex shifts westward and southern vortex shifts eastward such that the electroject is substantially tilted relative to the geomagnetic equator. From numerical estimations we found that at middle latitudes the SEP-initiated geomagnetic effect becomes comparable with the effects of solar electromagnetic radiation. It was also shown that the SEP contribute to the SFE in the nightside hemisphere. The revealed features of the SEP impact to the ionosphere were found in a good agreement with the theory of energetic particle penetration to the bottom-side magnetosphere.     

Active filaments as the main source of the solar wind plasma in the Earth’s orbit

The works on the relations of active filaments to geomagnetic disturbances, performed in 1953–1974 in the Geophysical Institute of Czechoslovakia [Bednarova-Novakova and Halenka, 1974], and to interplanetary MHD disturbances, performed in 1996–2006 in IZMIRAN by the author of this work with the collaborators, are briefly reviewed. The results of these works form the basis for the conclusion that the coronal-chromospheric plasma related to active filaments is the main source of plasma in the solar wind streams in the Earth’s orbit.     

The probabilistic approach to estimating the origination of certain types of extreme solar events

The probability of origination of superpower flares (super-flares) on the Sun, the power of which is higher than that of the observed flares, is discussed. The probabilistic approach, which makes it possible to find the analytical expression for the distribution of the observed values of any solar activity parameter and to extrapolate the obtained function to the range of values that were not observed previously, is proposed. The estimated probabilities of implementation of the Wolf number (400) and the flare proton fluxes in the Earth’s orbit (from 60000 to 160000 s⁻¹ cm⁻²) are presented as an example. It has been obtained that these events occur ones per 10 000 and 100 years, respectively.     

Local maximum in the microwave spectrum of solar active regions as a factor in predicting powerful flares

We discuss the results of a study of microwave radiation from three flare-active regions??NOAA 10300, 10930, and 11158??with powerful eruptive events (X-class flares and coronal mass ejections) recorded on July 15, 2002; December 13, 2006; and February 15, 2011, when the regions were in the central part of the disk. There exists evidence of a ??-configuration in the structure of the photospheric magnetic field formed one or two days prior to the eruptive process as a result of the emergence of a new magnetic flux and shifting movements of the sunspots and accompanied by changes in the spectral characteristics of the microwave radiation of the active regions (ARs), which suggests the development of a peculiar radio source. The analysis of these regions continues a series of studies of eruptive events carried out at RATAN-600 in the 1980s?C1990s and gives a reason to conclude that early detections of peculiar sources in the microwave radiation of ARs, which are essentially areas of high energy release in the solar atmosphere, can be used as a factor in predicting powerful eruptive (geoeffective) processes on the Sun.     

Formation of homogeneous regions for regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation events in the Czech Republic

Extreme high precipitation amounts are among environmental events with the most disastrous consequences for human society. This paper deals with the identification of ‘homogeneous regions’ according to statistical characteristics of precipitation extremes in the Czech Republic, i.e. the basic and most important step toward the regional frequency analysis. Precipitation totals measured at 78 stations over 1961–2000 are used as an input dataset. Preliminary candidate regions are formed by the cluster analysis of site characteristics, using the average-linkage clustering and Ward’s method. Several statistical tests for regional homogeneity are utilized, based on the 10-yr event and the variation of L-moment statistics. In compliance with results of the tests, the area of the Czech Republic has been divided into four homogeneous regions. The findings are supported by simulation experiments proposed to evaluate stability of the test results. Since the regions formed reflect also climatological differences in precipitation regimes and synoptic patterns causing high precipitation amounts, their future application may not be limited to the frequency analysis of extremes.     

Reaction of the high-latitude lower ionosphere to solar proton events from observations in the ELF range

The reaction of the lower ionosphere to the solar proton events that occurred in 2011–2012 is studied in this paper based on the results of measurements of the propagation velocity and the E _z /H _τ ratio of the low-frequency electromagnetic pulses (atmospherics) in the ELF range at the high-latitude observatories Lovozero and Barentsburg. With numerical modeling methods, it is shown that horizontal local irregularities of the lower ionosphere conductivity profile could be a cause of the splashes in the E _z /H _τ ratio observed in the experiment during the solar proton event of March 7, 2012, which was a unique event in both the proton flux value and energy.     

Studying the solar corona above active regions from microwave observations during solar flares recorded by CORONAS-F satellite

In 2001–2003, 45 flares of hard X ray (HXR) and gamma ray radiation, identified with a particular active region (AR) that produced each event, were recorded during the experiments onboard the Russian Solar Observatory CORONAS-F using the SONG (solar neutrons and gamma ray quanta) instrument. The solar corona structure and dynamics above these ARs is studied on the basis of the microwave observations with two Russian radio telescopes RATAN-600 and Siberian Solar Radio Telescope (SSRT). The results are illustrated using the active region NOAA 9601 and flare of September 5, 2001 (～ 1430 UT) as an example. The flare is interesting because the energy of its gamma radiation exceeded 1 MeV, while its power was only M6.0 in soft X rays. Such a combination of the event characteristics is not too frequent, which indicates that the spectrum of the studied event was rather hard. The type of the source of microwave radiation above NOAA 9601 has been determined. Some properties of this-type sources of a diagnostic value for detecting ARs capable of producing HXR and gamma radiation are indicated.     

Observations of long-period oscillations of the solar active regions in the visible and UV spectral intervals

The variation of intensity in spectral line wings, which was obtained from observations of the patrol telescope at the Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station of the Pulkovo Observatory, Russian Academy of Science (KMAS) and the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) space observatory, are considered. A series of observations lasting a few hours near the solar active regions, in which both short- and longperiod oscillations were observed simultaneously during 2014–2015, are analyzed. It is found out that oscillations with a period of 3–5 min can exist at one time and in one place with oscillations with a period of about 100 min. The amplitude of long-period oscillations can be comparable with that for short-period oscillations. The conditions for excitation of the wave processes are considered. Oscillations with a period of 100 min have a weak dependence on the area of the active region.     

Solar proton increases and dynamics of the electron outer radiation belt during solar events in December 2006

Increases in solar protons and variations in the electron and proton fluxes from the outer radiation belt are studied based on the GLONASS satellite measurements (the circular orbit at an altitude of ～20000 km with an inclination of ～65°) performed in December 2006. Indications in the channels, registered protons with energies of Ep = 3–70 MeV and electrons with energies of Ee > 0.04 and >0.8 MeV, are analyzed. The data on electrons with Ee = 0.8–1.2 MeV, measured on the Express-A3 geostationary satellite, are also presented. Before the strong magnetic storm of December 14 (|Dst|_max = 146 nT), the maximum of the outer belt electrons with the energy >0.7 MeV was observed at L ～ 4.5. After the storm, the fluxes of these electrons increased by more than an order of magnitude as compared to the prestorm level, and the maximum of a “new” belt shifted to L < 4 (minimal L reached by the GLONASS orbit). Under quiet geomagnetic conditions, solar protons with the energies >3 MeV fill only high-latitude legs of the GLONASS orbit. During the strong magnetic storm of December 15, the boundary of proton penetration into the magnetosphere almost merged with the orbital maximum of the proton radiation belt.     

大容量气枪震源主动探测技术系统及试验研究

针对地下介质动态变化监测研究中的信噪比、震源可重复性和波速精确测量等关键问题,利用大容量气枪震源,构建了一套高性能的主动探测技术系统,该系统包括气枪震源激发和信号接收,并在河北、云南和新疆等地的内陆水库和人工水体等不同激发环境,开展了探索性试验研究。试验结果表明:①气枪震源激发频率低,能量强,具有高度的可重复性、可通过叠加提高信噪比、探测距离大、绿色环保等特征,是一种理想的低频震源;②该探测技术系统操作简单,易控制,自动化程度高,探测精度高,能观测到固体潮引起的连续变化,可应用于区域尺度地下介质动态变化监测和开展4D 地震学研究;③气枪震源激发产生的信号震相丰富,有较强的S波,为研究地壳介质特性、应力分布及其动态变化等提供了新的技术路线。     

Recurrence of flare energy releases in solar active regions (Cycle 23)

The following results have been achieved in this work. The distribution of the recurrence times of solar flare events is generally lognormal. The typical flare recurrence times at the cycle 23 minimum and maximum are different: the average times (100–200 min) are most typical of the maximum; at the same time, the minimum is simultaneously characterized by short (several tens of seconds) and long (from several hundreds to a thousand of minutes). The minimal flare recurrence time tends to decrease in an active region with increasing sunspot group area in this region. The average flare recurrence times in an active region have typical values of 120^m, 210^m, 300^m, 400^m, and 530^m, which is close to the typical periods of long-period sunspot oscillations. The total number of flares in an active region depends on the sunspot area in this region and the flare energy release rate.     

Physical conditions in the low corona and chromosphere of solar active regions according to spectral radar measurements

The physical conditions in the low corona and chromosphere of solar active regions are studied. A diagnostics technique based on multiwave observations in the centimeter range, photospheric magnetic field extrapolation, and radioemission calculations has been applied. The calculated spatial and spectral structure of the radioemission has been compared with RATAN-600 spectral-polarization observations with a high spatial resolution. The effect of the plasma physical parameters on the emission structure character in a complex magnetic field topology in active regions is analyzed. Modeling of the spectral singularities at a quasi-periodic propagation of the radioemission is presented.     

2001年4月2日太阳耀斑及其太阳质子事件的观测结果研究

2001年4月2日, 太阳爆发了一个近年来X射线通量最大的一次耀斑并伴有质子事件, 利用“资源一号”卫星星内粒子探测器和神舟二号飞船X射线探测器的观测资料, 对这一事件的高能粒子响应进行了特例研究. “资源一号”卫星运行于太阳同步轨道, 高度约800km, 和宁静时期的统计结果对比, 这次耀斑后, 星内粒子探测器在地球极盖区（地球开磁场区）观测到耀斑粒子的出现, 这是宁静时期没有的; 神舟二号飞船轨道高度400km, 倾角为42°, X射线探测器在42°中高纬地区也观测到高能电子通量比宁静时明显的增加, 这表明, 太阳耀斑引起的近地空间辐射环境的变化遍及纬度约40°以上的区域, 甚至在40°N附近400 km左右的高度上仍然有响应. 但是, 中高纬度、极光带和极盖区的粒子来源, 加速机制和响应方式却不一定相同, 需要分别讨论. 资料分析和对比还表明, 质子事件的强度并不一定和耀斑的X射线通量成正比, 因此, 近地空间高能粒子对耀斑的响应也不是完全决定于X射线强度.