Special points in 11-year variations in the latitudinal characteristics of sunspot activity

It has been indicated that special moments (turning points), when certain characteristics of the latitudinal (equatorward) drift of the sunspot drift zone suddenly change, exist in each 11-year solar cycle. The moment when a sunspot formation low-latitude boundary minimum (T2), coordinated in time with the end of a polar magnetic field polarity reversal, exists has a special place among these points. A conclusion has been drawn that it is impossible to reconstruct polarity reversal moments in the past based on information about turning points T2. The average velocities of the latitudinal drift of the minimal, average, and maximal sunspot group latitudes have been calculated. It has been indicated that the closeness of the relationship between the first two velocities and the maximal activity amplitudes in the cycles differ substantially for the first (before point T2) and second (after point T2) cycle parts. The corresponding values of the correlation coefficients increase substantially in the second cycle (after point T2). It has been established that a relationship exists between some velocities calculated in these cycles and the activity amplitudes at maximums of the next cycles. A model for predicting future cycle maximums has been constructed based on this conclusion. The probable average annual Wolf number at a maximum of cycle 24 has been determined (W(24) = 93).     

Relations of latitudinal characteristics of sunspot groups to the 11-year cycle amplitude at different phases

Using sunspot data for cycles 12 to 23, we have investigated relations of some latitude characteristics of sunspot groups to the 11-year cycle amplitude at different phases. We have revealed a high correlation (with correlation coefficients >0.9) between the middle latitude of sunspot groups at phases of rise, maximum, and decay, on the one hand, and the amplitude of the corresponding cycle, on the other hand. We have shown that the maxima of the velocity of the motion of the sunspot formation zone to the equator have a special physical meaning: the rise phase of the 11-year cycle is characterized by significant correlations between the cycle amplitude and the maximum for the lowest boundary, and the cycle decay phase is characterized by the same maximum for the highest boundary. We have built equations allowing one to determine the amplitude of the 11-year cycle on the basis of data on the given latitudinal characteristics of sunspots groups.     

Seasonal,longitudinal, and latitudinal differences in air temperatures in Russia in years of sunspot maxima and minima

Based on an analysis of a large array of meteorological data, we have shown that surface air temperatures differ significantly in years of sunspot maxima and minima for different months and latitudes and longitudes of observation points. This difference is the greatest at high latitudes of 60–83°; it is equal to +2.07 ± 0.28°C in February in the longitudinal range of 170 ± 190° and −1.41 ± 0.29°C in November in the longitude range of 150 ± 170°.     

The sunspot areas and the relative sunspot numbers

Summary Within each sunspot cycle the yearly means (A) of the daily sunspot areas increase faster than the corresponding sunspot numbers (R) from the minimum to the maximum of solar activity and then decrease also faster than these numbers till the next minimum. Relation (A)=16.7 (R), frequently used so far, is approximately valid only for the years in the vicinity of the sunspot maximum. Instead of that, author gives the relations: for the years preceding the sunspot maximum, for the years following the sunspot maximum, wherea andb are constants,T _R is the time of rise of the corresponding sunspot cycle expressed in years, andk takes the valuek=0 for the year of maximum solar activity andk=1, 2, 3, ... for the first, second, third ... year preceding or following that of maximum solar activity. The monthly means of the daily sunspot areas show a similar variation, but in this case the ratioq=AR varies with a greater amplitude both within each sunspot cycle and from cycle to cycle. The values ofq corresponding to all months of a given year in the sunspot cycle are contained between two limits depending on the time of rise.

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Résumé Les valeurs moyennes (A) des aires diurnes des taches solaires à chaque année depuis 1878 augmentent plus rapidement du minimum vers le maximum de l'activité solaire que les nombres de Wolf correspondants (R). Elles diminuent aussi plus rapidement que les nombres de Wolf du maximum vers le minimum de l'activité solaire. La relation adoptée (A)=16.7 (R) ne s'applique pas avec une approximation satisfaisante que seulement pour les années voisines celle du maximum de l'activité solaire. L'auteur propose les relations: pour les années qui précédent le maximum, pour les années qui suivent le maximum, oùa, b sont des constantes,T _R le temps d'ascension du cycle correspondant exprimé en années et la parametrek prend la valeurk=0 à l'année du maximum de l'activité solaire etk=1, 2, 3 ... pour les années qui précédent et qui suivent celle du maximum. Les valeurs moyennes des aires diurnes des taches à chaque mois, suivent la même marche mais dans ce cas le rapportq=AR present des larges variations. Il oscille pourtant extre deux limites qui dependent du temps d'ascension.

     

Analysis of latitudinal distribution of Pi2 geomagnetic pulsations using the generalized variance method

The spatial dynamics of bursts of geomagnetic Pi2-type pulsations during a typical event of a magnetospheric substorm (April 13, 2010) drifting to the pole was investigated using the method of generalized variance characterizing the integral time increment of the total horizontal amplitude of the wave at a given point in the selected time interval. The digital data of Scandinavian profile observations from IMAGE magnetometers with 10-second sampling and data of the INTERMAGNET project observations at the equatorial, middle-latitude and subauroral latitudes with a 1-second sampling were used in the analysis. It was shown that Pi2 pulsation bursts in a frequency band of 8–20 mHz appear simultaneously on a global scale: from the polar to equatorial latitudes with maximum amplitudes at latitudes of the maximum intensity of the auroral electrojet and with a maximum amplitude of geomagnetic pulsations Pi3 within a band of 1.5–6 mHz. The first (left-polarized) intensive Pi2 burst appeared at auroral latitudes several minutes after breakup, while the second (right-polarized) burst occurred 15 min after breakup but at higher (polar) latitudes where the substorm had displaced by that time. The direction of wave-polarization vector rotation was opposite for auroral and subauroral latitudes, but it was identical at the equator and in the subauroral zone. The pulsation amplitude at the equator was maximal in the night sector.     

大地震纬向分布的基本规律与动力学解释

统计了 1 90 0～ 1 999年全球大地震 (M≥ 7.0 )的纬向分布 ,进一步证实了全球大地震的分布的确存在不对称问题 ,北、南半球大地震发生的次数不对称 ,北半球多 ,南半球少 ;二个半球大地震集中分布的区域不对称 ,北半球大地震集中分布的区域为 1 5°～ 55°,南半球集中分布的区域为 0°～ 35°;北半球有 3个明显的大地震分布区间 ,即 1 5°～ 2 0°,35°～ 45°,50°～ 55°;两极地区无大地震。并且导出了计算日、月对地壳纬向水平引潮力达到极值的计算公式 ,根据日、月水平引潮力达到极值时的纬度分布的规律 ,较好地解释了全球大地震分布的不对称问题     

Characteristics of sunspot longitudinal distribution and their correlation with solar activity in pre-Greenwich data

We study and compare characteristics of the sunspot group latitude distribution in two catalogs: extended Greenwich (1874–2014) and Schwabe (1825–1867) (Arlt et al., 2013). We show that both datasets reveal similar correlations between the latitude and amplitude characteristics of the 11-year cycle: the latitude dispersion correlates with the current activity and the sunspot mean latitude at the cycle’s maximum is proportional to its amplitude. This agrees with the conclusions drawn in (Ivanov et al., 2011; Ivanov and Miletsky, 2014) for the Greenwich catalog. We show that the latitude properties of the sunspot distribution are much more tolerant to gaps in observational data than traditional amplitude indices of activity. Therefore, the discovered correlations can be used for estimation of the observation quality and independent normalization of the activity levels in spotty pre-Greenwich data. We exemplified this using the Schwabe catalog. In addition, we show that the first part of the Schwabe data probably contains errors in sunspot latitudes, which lead to overestimation of the sunspot latitude dispersions.     

Running waves in the sunspot chromosphere

Running waves at the chromospheric level (Hα) in sunspots are studied. Propagating 3-min oscillations are shown to be typical of many spots. Presumably, they propagate along the vertical magnetic-field lines. Their propagation speed is measured. According to our analysis, the 5-min oscillations propagating in the penumbral chromosphere are not a continuation of the 3-min umbral oscillations. The wavelength and propagation speed of the running penumbral waves are determined.     

Features of the latitudinal distribution of the annual variation of the geomagnetic field level and circumpolar current system in 1964

The results of investigations of the latitudinal distribution of annual variation of the geomagnetic field level in the seasons of 1964 (International Quiet Sun Year) using the data from 95 world magnetic observatories located at various longitudes in the latitude range 83° N–90° S are reported. The latitudinal features of the X, Y, and Z components of the geomagnetic field have been analyzed. It has been shown that the amplitudes (summer-winter differences) of the annual variation are maximal in the polar regions, decrease continuously to zero towards the equator, and are identical for both the Northern and Southern hemispheres with a half-year delay (local summer). The amplitudes of the equinox-winter difference in the equinox periods are smaller than those in summer, but are manifested simultaneously in the Northern and Southern hemispheres. An equivalent circumpolar current system has been constructed, which is responsible for the annual variation of the geomagnetic field level. Its parameters have been determined.     

On the modeling of visible sunspot layers

One option for a stationary model of the asymmetric sunspot previously presented by the authors is considered. It is shown that the presence of sub-Alfvénic Evershed flows in the sunspot penumbra has almost no effect on the temperature distribution in the dense photospheric layers of the sunspot but significantly lowers the temperature of the chromosphere and the lower corona above the sunspot penumbra up to heights of 5–6 Mm.     

Studies on the latitudinal distribution of ground-based geomagnetic pulsations and fluctuations in the interplanetary medium using discrete mathematical analysis methods

Ground-based geomagnetic Pc5 (2–7 mHz) pulsations, caused by the passage of dense transients (density disturbances) in the solar wind, were analyzed. It was shown that intensive bursts can appear in the density of the solar wind and its fluctuations, up to Np ～ 30–50 cm³, even during the most magnetically calm year in the past decades (2009). The analysis, performed using one of the latest methods of discrete mathematical analysis (DMA), is presented. The energy functional of a time-series fragment (called “anomaly rectification” in DMA terms) of two such events was calculated. It was established that fluctuations in the dynamic pressure (density) of the solar wind (SW) cause the global excitation of Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations in the daytime sector of the Earth’s magnetosphere, i.e., from polar to equatorial latitudes. Such pulsations started and ended suddenly and simultaneously at all latitudes. Fluctuations in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) have turned up to be less geoeffective in exciting geomagnetic pulsations than fluctuations in the SW density. The pulsation generation mechanisms in various structural regions of the magnetosphere were probably different. It was therefore concluded that the most probable source of ground-based pulsations are fluctuations of the corresponding periods in the SW density.     

The puzzling structure of a sunspot

Why does a sunspot look the way it does? Steven Tobias and Nigel Weiss find answers to this question, by relating new high-resolution observations to recent theoretical studies of the spot's magnetic field.     

On the variation of the etesians within the sunspot cycle

Summary The variation of the Etesians within the sunspot cycle was examined according to observations made at the Athens Observatory during the period 1893–1958. This was made by the actual numbers of the Etesians days and the sunspots as by means of the smoothed values of the above elements through the formula (a+2b+c): 4. It was found that there is a single oscillation of the Etesians within the sunspot cycle and also that the correlation between sunspots and Etesians is rather high.

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Résumé Dans cette étude est examinée la variation des Etésiens pendant le cycle des taches solaires basée sur les observations faites à l'Observatoire d'Athènes durant la période 1893–1958. Dans ce but ont été considerés d'une part les jours réels des Etésiens et les nombres des taches solaires et d'autre les valeurs de ces éléments calculées par la formule (a+2b+c): 4. Il a été constaté que la fréquence des Etésiens présente une simple variation pendant le cycle solaire et qu'il y a une assez grande corrélation entre les taches solaires et les Etésiens.

     

Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond

Solar variability is controlled by the internal dynamo which is a non-linear system. We develop a physical–statistical method for forecasting solar activity that takes into account the non-linear character of the solar dynamo. The method is based on the generally accepted mechanisms of the dynamo and on recently found systematic properties of the long-term solar variability. The amplitude modulation of the Schwabe cycle in dynamo's magnetic field components can be decomposed in an invariant transition level and three types of oscillations around it. The regularities that we observe in the behaviour of these oscillations during the last millennium enable us to forecast solar activity. We find that the system is presently undergoing a transition from the recent Grand Maximum to another regime. This transition started in 2000 and it is expected to end around the maximum of cycle 24, foreseen for 2014, with a maximum sunspot number R_max=68±17. At that time a period of lower solar activity will start. That period will be one of regular oscillations, as occurred between 1730 and 1923. The first of these oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810, in which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might develop. This moderate-to-low-activity episode is expected to last for at least one Gleissberg cycle (60–100 years).     

Altitude integration effects in the skewness of type-2 coherent echoes

Possible effects of signal reception from different electrojet heights in a skewness of auroral coherent spectra are studied assuming that the “inherent” spectral line due to plasma turbulence is of type-2 and symmetrical. For reasonable ionospheric parameters, the altitude integrated spectra are expected to be skewed negatively for positive mean Doppler shift, in agreement with radar observations at small aspect angles. However, the spectra could be skewed positively if the turbulent layer or the electron density profile is shifted to high altitudes of \sim120 km. This change of spectral shape will not be observed experimentally if, at the same time, either the electron collision frequency is enhanced or the “inherent” spectral width is increased. Observational results are discussed in view of the predictions given.     

太阳黑子相对数最强周期的小波分析

利用小波变换,分析了1749年以来每个太阳活动周太阳黑子相对数的最强周期以及第1～22太阳活动周的最强周期. 分析结果表明,在第5和第6个太阳活动周,太阳黑子相对数最强的周期分别为64.67年和69.31年;在第13～15太阳活动周,太阳黑子相对数的最强周期分别为98.02年,105.06年和105.06年. 在第1～22太阳活动周中,太阳黑子相对数最强的周期是128个月,约10.67年,其他太阳活动周的最强周期介于9.29～11.43年之间. 本文最后给出了128个月周期的幅度随时间的变化.     

纬向带在大震预报中的意义

讨论了纬向带在8级大震预报中的意义.论证了这些纬向带具有地球深部的背景.在它们与一些弧形构造和V形构造交会的部位易于发生8级大震.     

Streamflow simulation and skewness preservation based on the bootstrapped stochastic models

The stochastic model has been widely used for the simulation study. However, there was a difficulty in the reproduction of the skewness of observed series and so the stochastic model for the skewness preservation was appeared. While the skewness in the residuals of the stochastic model has been considered for the skewness preservation this study uses a random resampling technique of residuals from the stochastic models for the simulation study and for the investigation of the skewness coefficient. The main advantage of this resampling scheme, called the bootstrap method is that it does not rely on the assumption of population distribution and this study uses the combined model of the stochastic and bootstrapped models. The stochastic and bootstrapped stochastic (or combined) models are used for the investigations of skewness preservation and of the reproduction of probability density function between the simulated series. The models are applied to the annual and monthly streamflows of Yongdam site in Korea and Yakima river, Washington, USA for the streamflow simulation study then the statistics and probability density functions for the observed and simulated streamflows are compared. As the results the bootstrapped stochastic model reproduces the skewness and probability density function much better than the stochastic model. This evidences suggest that the bootstrapped stochastic model might be more appropriate than the stochastic model for the preservation of skewness and for simulation purposes of the series.     

太阳黑子磁场极性指数时间序列

本文根据苏黎世天文台太阳黑子11年周期资料和太阳黑子磁场磁性变化周期特征,构建了太阳黑子磁场磁性指数IM(Magnetic Index)时间序列,用IM(i)表示.为了便于采用数学方法研究太阳黑子磁场磁性指数变化与诸多地球物理现象之间的联系,本文给出了1749～2007年月平均太阳黑子磁场磁性指数时间序列数据.     

HSUNSPOTS: A tool for the analysis of historical sunspot drawings

Valuable information about the evolution of solar activity is recorded in early sunspot drawings, especially during 17th–19th centuries. In this context, we have developed a computer program to analyze historical drawings showing the trajectories of sunspots across the solar disk. As an example, we have analysed the drawings published in the book De heliometri structura et usu by Zucconi (1760). These drawings span the period from April 1754 to June 1760. We present the Butterfly diagram for those years. The ending of solar cycle 0 and the beginning of solar cycle 1 are clearly noted in this diagram.