全隐式六层原始方程的数值试验

本文应用一个π面坐标六层全隐式原始方程非线性迭代求解模式进行了数值试验,取得了初步结果. 为了考验该模式的稳定性,设计了一种简单的理想场在该模式上进行计算,取得了五天稳定的结果.并且用实例计算,取得了48小时的预报结果.所预报的结果并不紊乱,并且能很好地反映实际天气形势演变过程. 由于本模式中所使用迭代法求解计算量太大,为了节省计算时间,将该模式恢复为平流格式,并应用分离解法求解.应用上述的理想场及实际场作试验,结果表明计算量可节省一半. 应用以上模式对不同实例进行计算,其结果说明无论是稳定的天气形势,或是发展的天气形势都能很好地预报出来.     

索马里低空气流的数值模拟

本文用P-σ混合坐标系五层初始方程模式,模拟了索马里过赤道低空气流的发展过程并对其形成机制进行了讨论.指出,索马里低空气流的发展可分为二个基本阶段:第一个阶段为低空气流在贴近地面的层次上发展,略高的层次上有序的气流尚未形成;第二个阶段为低空气流在近地层继续加强,同时较高层次上也出现了有序的气流.结构分析表明,索马里低空气流一般在700hPa以下,在索马里海岸附近有一个热力性垂直环流,索马里低空气流穿过其中。有关形成机制的模拟实验表明,在边界层中,气流的发展主要决定于非绝热加热的海陆不均匀分布,与地形高低的     

初始方程三层模式的改进试验

本文针对三层初始方程模式在业务使用中存在的问题,进行了一些改进试验。内容包括提高空间差分精度、缩小网格距离和改进初值风的计算等三个方面。对系统移速偏慢的问题,改进是明显的。对系统发展预报偏弱的问题,也有改进。试验表明,地转参数在低纬的取值,可能是一个敏感的因子。     

A regional spectral nested multilevel primitive equation model

By means of vertical normal modes a regional nested multilevel primitive equation model can be reduced to sev-eral sets of shallow water equations characterized by various equivalent depths. Therefore, time integration of the model in spectral form can be performed in the manner similar to those used in the spectral nested shallow water equation model case.     

用五层原始方程模式对冬季季风的数值模拟

本文采用过去曾用以研究青藏高原对夏季天气和气候影响的五层局地原始方程模式来模拟冬季季风。试验证明了海陆对季风环流的热力影响冬夏正好是相反的。计算出的在印度洋、非洲和南亚地区的气压场、流场和降水率的分布与实况相当一致,文中对模拟和观测的垂直环流进行了比较,还给出了感热和非绝热加热率的计算结果。     

一个全球原始方程谱模式及其数值诊断检验

本文描述了一个全球原始方程谱模式及其方程组。模式在垂直方向取σ坐标,水平方向用球面勒尚得函数表示,并用三角形截差法取21个波,模式中包含有各种非绝热物理过程的参数化方案。时间积分采用半隐式方案,并考虑了地形的影响。模式的数值试验结果表明,该模式有能力模拟出人气环流中的许多基本特征。例如,纬向平均风场、温度场、径向环流、南北方向上物理量的交换和输送等等。模式在北京气象中心M-170机上积分一天,时间步长取45min,需要20min CPU时间,内存62k字节。因此该模式可以在国内大部份中型机上运行。     

Initialization and data assimilation experiments with a primitive equation model

The process of combining models of the ocean circulation with large data sets is known in meteorology as model initialization and data assimilation. This process is new to oceanographers, who only now are on the verge of having available world-wide synoptic maps of dynamic variables. In this paper we carry out a series of idealized initialization/assimilation experiments with a primitive equation (PE) model, which constitute a first step in developing a realistic process model and data assimilation techniques for the Gulf Stream system. The PE model is used in a spin-down mode and initialized with an analytic jet profile with geostrophically balanced fields.Two major questions are addressed in the present study. The first concerns the initialization process of a PE model during which internal/inertial gravity wave noise is produced. We ask: are the initialization shocks equally crucial for ocean models as they have been for their atmospheric counterparts? The results of an extensive series of balanced versus unbalanced initializations indicate that, for a PE model with a rigid lid, a brutally unbalanced initialization is required to produce strong internal gravity wave shocks. A geostrophically balanced initialization is sufficient to ensure smooth jet evolutions, with no apparent gravity waves, over long time durations in the spin-down mode. No sophisticated initialization procedures seem, therefore, to be required.The second question addressed is: which component of the flow is the most important in data assimilation to drive the model response towards a baseline reference ocean? We specifically compare the knowledge of the depth-integrated flow only, corresponding to measurements of the total transport, with the knowledge of the density field only, or equivalently the velocity shear. The knowledge of the interior density field is much more effective in decreasing the root-mean-square (r.m.s.) errors relative to the reference ocean. If the baroclinic structure is known, coarse horizontal resolutions of data insertion can be reached before significantly worsening the model estimates. If only the depth-averaged flow is known, a decrease in the horizontal resolution of data assimilation has an immediate effect: the r.m.s. errors sharply increase and the assimilation run diverges from the reference ocean. In the assimilation of the barotropic flow alone, even with dense resolution, the errors in the deep layers always show an increasing trend. The relative effectiveness of baroclinic versus barotropic data insertion can be rationalized in the context of geostrophic adjustment theory.     

机场斜视视程的数值模拟实验及其计算公式

本文通过求解辐射传输方程,研究了斜视视程对大气消光系数分布、散射相函数、总光学厚度、太阳的天顶角和方位角以及目标物和背景的反照特性的敏感性.根据数值模拟实验资料,提出了一个简单的斜视视程的近似表达式.     

苏通大桥桥位江面风速的数值试验

用WRF中尺度模式对苏通大桥桥位江面的风速进行了数值模拟。在修改了模式自带的静态地形数据后模拟效果较修改前有所改善。并发现在对天气系统有较准确模拟的情况下模式对桥位江面最大风速的模拟也较为精确,反之结果相差较多。挑选了其中两个个例并使用修改过静态地形数据的模式分别对地形和一些物理方案作敏感性试验,发现各种因素对模拟结果都有着不同程度的影响,起决定性作用的是水陆分布;在没有强对流天气系统的情况下各种微物理参数化方案对模拟结果均不产生明显影响;模拟时需加入长短波辐射参数化和边界层参数化方案,并且其中YSU边界层参数化方案的模拟结果最为理想。在缺乏江面风观测数据的时段里模式对江面风速的模拟结果具有一定的参考价值。     

An operational 5-layer primitive equation model for northern hemisphere prediction

A 5-layer primitive equation Northern Hemisphere operational model in a modified σ-coordinate system is developed in BMC, NMB. Finite difference schemes are constructed to conserve the total energy without imposing any constraints on the difference scheme of hydrostatic equation and pressure gradient term. The physical factors of orography, friction, horizontal diffusion and various non-adiabatic heatings are included. The model has been under development since the beginning of 1980, and became operational in September 1981. Preliminary results for selected series of 40 prognosis are summarized and the verifications are encouraging.     

中尺度低压系统形成和维持的数值实验

使用细网格的多层原始方程模式对中尺度低压进行了数值模拟。发现:(1)在中尺度低压形成和维持过程中风场扰动的动力学过程比气压场扰动的作用更为重要。(2)对五种不同垂直结构的风场扰动进行了实验,其中以中低层的风场扰动在中低压形成过程中的作用更显著。(3)对湿模式和干模式进行的对比实验表明,两者重力波传播的相速度有明显的差别。前者将近为零,而后者达44米/秒。     

Tropical storm motion and structure in a fine mesh primitive equation model

Summary Convective to planetary scale processes govern the motion and structure of tropical storms. A model with a high resolution and a large domain is required for accurate prediction of a storm's track and intensity. A series of integrations are performed using a primitive equation model and an initial state that defines a tropical storm that later developed into a hurricane in the real atmosphere. Increasing the horizontal resolution or domain of the model improves the forecast track. However only the increase in the horizontal resolution produces a better hurricane structure.Banded structure in the vertical motion field, asymmetries in the low tropospheric winds similar to those observed and upper tropospheric cyclonic outflow develop in high horizontal resolution experiments. It is shown that horizontal advection and pressure gradient terms produce wind tendencies in the low troposphere that displace the vortex in the observed direction. A high pressure area surrounding the central low pressure area appears in the upper troposphere. Around this high pressure area large pressure gradients develop that induce outflow winds in the distal storm area.     

Analysis—Prediction experiments over Indian region using primitive equation barotropic model

The impact of initial guess and grid resolutions on the analysis and prediction has been investigated over the In-dian region. For this purpose, an univariate objective analysis scheme and a primitive equation barotropic model have been used. The impact of initial guess and the resolutions on analysis and prediction is discussed.     

滴水起电实验分析及雷暴云起电模型建立

雷暴云内电场的相对变化率与云内粒子(水滴、霰、冰晶)的宏观运动和微观物理过程有关。宏观运动与云内粒子的垂直加速度及粒子体积的乘积密切相关;微观物理过程与云内粒子体积变化率(或混合比对数变化率或数密度对数变化率)及粒子的碰并速度的乘积密切相关。因此,创立了雷暴云起电G模型,首次科学地解释了层云很少产生闪电,而强对流能够产生强闪电的自然现象。     

Numerical experiment to revisit micrometeorology and sound speed calculations in forests

A recent paper (Tunick and Swearingen in Appl Acoustics 70:857–867, 2009) presented a finite-difference computer model to calculate the microphysical influences on sound wave propagation in forests. Several numerical tests were conducted to assess model code capabilities using micrometeorological and acoustic field data. Calculated wind, temperature, and specific humidity profile data compared favorably to measured data. Nevertheless, we recommended investigation of alternate numerical schemes to determine the best formulation for micrometeorological-acoustic research applications in forests. Hence, in this paper, we conduct a numerical experiment that focuses on the pressure gradient term in the conservation of momentum equation. In particular, we implement a numerical iteration of this term at each time step of the calculation. This modification yields a more nearly incompressible flow, thus producing an alternative representation of the physics for the simulation of interest. Differences in the computed wind, temperature, and sound speed fields for the runs with and without implementing the iteration scheme are illustrated graphically and discussed.     

Split-explicit integration of primitive equation barotropic model for the prediction of movement of monsoon depression

The split-explicit version of a limited area primitive equation barotropic model is formulated and tested for the prediction of movement of monsoon depressions. The model is integrated upto 48 hours with split-explicit time inte-gration scheme (Gadd, 1978a) using input of four synoptic cases. The model is also integrated explicitly. The forecast results obtained from both the versions are compared and discussed. The computational time in former version is less than half of the computational time needed in explicit version.     

高阶递归滤波在一次暴雨预报中的数值试验

为了考察具有多种特征尺度四阶递归滤波器在极端暴雨事件预报中的应用效果和能力,利用GRAPES三维变分同化系统,对2007年7月16—19日的川渝暴雨过程进行了模式分析。共开展了3组模拟试验：第一组试验在模式中使用单一特征尺度的一阶递归滤波;第二组试验在模式中使用由3种不同特征尺度的四阶滤波拟合而成的四阶递归滤波;第三组试验在模式中使用由3种不同特征尺度的一阶滤波拟合而成的一阶递归滤波。结果表明,具有多种特征尺度的递归滤波的预报效果要好于单一尺度的递归滤波。相比而言,由3种不同特征尺度的四阶递归滤波对预报的改进最大,不论是降水的落区还是降水的强度都有很大程度的改善,对水汽的调节更为理想。     

数值预报产品检验和评估

通过国家级数值预报T213模式、EC模式下发产品对影响海南的热带气旋主观性检验结果表明,T213模式不管是对稳定路径还是转折路径的热带气旋在生成、移动路径以及登陆点都与实况相差很大;而EC模式对不管是转折还是稳定路径的热带气旋,都能够对移动路径、登陆点以及转折点都能够做出准确的预报;而在客观性检验的结果中也可看出T213模式和EC模式的预报能力的优劣性。因此,总体来说,在热带气旋的数值预报产品中,EC模式的预报能力明显比T213模式强,具有很高的参考意义。另外在温度场的预报中,T213模式相对于MM5模式,其预报能力具有一定的可信度,在日常预报中具有参考价值。