CO2 Mitigation by Agriculture: An Overview

Agriculture currently contributes significantly to the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, primarily through the conversion of native ecosystems to agricultural uses in the tropics. Yet there are major opportunities for mitigation of CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions through changes in the use and management of agricultural lands. Agricultural mitigation options can be broadly divided into two categories: (I) strategies to maintain and increase stocks of organic C in soils (and biomass), and (ii) reductions in fossil C consumption, including reduced emissions by the agricultural sector itself and through agricultural production of biofuels to substitute for fossil fuels.Reducing the conversion of new land to agriculture in the tropics could substantially reduce CO2 emissions, but this option faces several difficult issues including population increase, land tenure and other socio-political factors in developing countries. The most significant opportunities for reducing tropical land conversions are in the humid tropics and in tropical wetlands. An important linkage is to improve the productivity and sustainability of existing agricultural lands in these regions.Globally, we estimate potential agricultural CO2 mitigation through soil C sequestration to be 0.4-0.9 Pg C y-1, through better management of existing agricultural soils, restoration of degraded lands, permanent "set-asides" of surplus agricultural lands in temperate developed countries and restoration of 10-20% of former wetlands now being used for agriculture. However, soils have a finite capacity to store additional C and therefore any increases in C stocks following changes in management would be largely realized within 50-100 years.Mitigation potential through reducing direct agricultural emissions is modest, 0.01-0.05 Pg C y-1. However, the potential to offset fossil C consumption through the use of biofuels produced by agriculture is substantial, 0.5-1.6 Pg C y-1, mainly through the production of dedicated biofuel crops with a smaller contribution (0.2-0.3 Pg C y-1) from crop residues.Many agricultural mitigation options represent "win-win" situations, in that there are important side benefits, in addition to CO2 mitigation, that could be achieved, e.g. improved soil fertility with higher soil organic matter, protection of lands poorly suited for permanent agriculture, cost saving for fossil fuel inputs and diversification of agricultural production (e.g. biofuels). However, the needs for global food production and farmer/societal acceptability suggest that mitigation technologies should conform to: (I) the enhancement of agricultural production levels in parts of the world where food production and population demand are in delicate balance and (ii) the accrual of additional benefits to the farmer (e.g., reduced labor, reduced or more efficient use of inputs) and society at large.     

Potential Soil C Sequestration on U.S. Agricultural Soils

Soil carbon sequestration has been suggested as a means to help mitigate atmospheric CO₂ increases, however there is limited knowledge aboutthe magnitude of the mitigation potential. Field studies across the U.S. provide information on soil C stock changes that result from changes in agricultural management. However, data from such studies are not readily extrapolated to changes at a national scale because soils, climate, and management regimes vary locally and regionally. We used a modified version of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) soil organic C inventory method, together with the National Resources Inventory (NRI) and other data, to estimate agricultural soil C sequestration potential in the conterminous U.S. The IPCC method estimates soil C stock changes associated with changes in land use and/or land management practices. In the U.S., the NRI provides a detailed record of land use and management activities on agricultural land that can be used to implement the IPCC method. We analyzed potential soil C storage from increased adoption of no-till, decreased fallow operations, conversion of highly erodible land to grassland, and increased use of cover crops in annual cropping systems. The results represent potentials that do not explicitly consider the economic feasibility of proposed agricultural production changes, but provide an indication of the biophysical potential of soil C sequestration as a guide to policy makers. Our analysis suggests that U.S. cropland soils have the potential to increase sequestered soil C by an additional 60–70 Tg (10¹²g) C yr^{– 1}, over present rates of 17 Tg C yr^–1(estimated using the IPCC method), with widespread adoption of soil C sequestering management practices. Adoption of no-till on all currently annually cropped area (129Mha) would increase soil C sequestration by 47 Tg C yr^–1. Alternatively, use of no-till on 50% of annual cropland, with reduced tillage practices on the other 50%, would sequester less – about37 Tg C yr^–1. Elimination of summer fallow practices and conversionof highly erodible cropland to perennial grass cover could sequester around 20 and 28Tg C yr^–1, respectively. The soil C sequestration potentialfrom including a winter cover crop on annual cropping systems was estimated at 40Tg C yr^–1. All rates were estimated for a fifteen-yearprojection period, and annual rates of soil C accumulations would be expected to decrease substantially over longer time periods. The total sequestration potential we have estimated for the projection period (83 Tg C yr^–1) represents about 5% of 1999total U.S. CO₂ emissions or nearly double estimated CO₂ emissionsfrom agricultural production (43 Tg C yr^–1). For purposes ofstabilizing or reducing CO₂ emissions, e.g., by 7% of 1990 levels asoriginally called for in the Kyoto Protocol, total potential soil C sequestration would represent 15% of that reduction level from projected 2008 emissions(2008 total greenhouse gas emissions less 93% of 1990 greenhouse gasemissions). Thus, our analysis suggests that agricultural soil C sequestration could play a meaningful, but not predominant, role in helping mitigate greenhouse gas increases.     

Offsetting China's CO2 Emissions by Soil Carbon Sequestration

Fossil fuel emissions of carbon (C) in China in 2000 was about 1 Pg/yr, which may surpass that of the U.S. (1.84 Pg C) by 2020. Terrestrial C pool of China comprises about 35 to 60 Pg in the forest and 120 to 186 Pg in soils. Soil degradation is a major issue affecting 145 Mha by different degradative processes, of which 126 Mha are prone to accelerated soil erosion. Similar to world soils, agricultural soils of China have also lost 30 to 50% or more of the antecedent soil organic carbon (SOC) pool.Some of the depleted SOC pool can be re-sequestered through restoration of degraded soils, and adoption of recommended management practices. The latter include conversion of upland crops to multiple cropping and rice paddies, adoption of integrated nutrient management (INM) strategies, incorporation of cover crops in the rotations cycle and adoption of conservation-effective systems including conservation tillage. A crude estimated potential of soil C sequestration in China is 119 to 226 Tg C/y of SOC and 7 to 138 Tg C/y for soil inorganic carbon (SIC) up to 50 years. The total potential of soil C sequestration is about 12 Pg, and this potential can offset about 25%of the annual fossil fuel emissions in China.     

Possibilities for Future Carbon Sequestration in Canadian Agriculture in Relation to Land Use Changes

Increasing carbon sequestration in agricultural soils in Canada is examined as a possible strategy in slowing or stopping the current increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Estimates are provided on the amount of carbon that could be sequestered in soils in various regions in Canada by reducing summerfallow area, increased use of forage crops, improved erosion control, shifts from conventional to minimal and no-till, and more intensive use of fertilizers. The reduction of summerfallow by more intensive agriculture would increase the continuous cropland base by 8.1% in western Canada and 6.8% in all of Canada. Although increased organic carbon (OC) sequestration could be achieved in all agricultural regions, the greatest potential gains are in areas of Chernozemic soils. The best management options include reduction of summerfallow, conversion of fallow areas to hay or continuous cereals, fertilization to ensure nutrient balance, and adoption of soil conservation measures. The adoption of these options could sequester about 50-75% of the total agricultural emissions of CO2 in Canada for the next 30 years. However, increased sequestration of atmospheric carbon in the soil is possible for only a limited time. Increased efforts must be made to reduce emissions if long-term mitigation is to be achieved.     

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agro-Ecosystems and Their Contribution to Environmental Change in the Indus Basin of Pakistan

There is growing concern that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been responsible for global warming through their effect on radiation balance and temperature. The magnitude of emissions and the relative importance of different sources vary widely, regionally and locally. The Indus Basin of Pakistan is the food basket of the country and agricultural activities are vulnerable to the effects of global warming due to accelerated emissions of GHGs. Many developments have taken place in the agricultural sector of Pakistan in recent decades in the background of the changing role of the government and the encouragement of the private sector for investment in new ventures. These interventions have considerable GHG emission potential. Unfortunately, no published information is currently available on GHG concentrations in the Indus Basin to assess their magnitude and emission trends. The present study is an attempt to estimate GHG （CO2, CH4 and N2O） emissions arising from different agro-ecosystems of Indus Basin. The GHGs were estimated mostly using the IPCC Guidelines and data from the published literature. The results showed that CH4 emissions were the highest （4.126 Tg yr^-1） followed by N20 （0.265 Tg yr^-1） and CO2 （52.6 Tg yr^-1）. The sources of CH4 are enteric fermentation, rice cultivation and cultivation of other crops. N2O is formed by microbial denitrification of NO3 produced from applied fertilizer-N on cropped soils or by mineralization of native organic matter on fallow soils. CO2 is formed by the burning of plant residue and by soil respiration due to the decomposition of soil organic matter.     

中国二氧化碳排放源现状分析

通过对20世纪90年代中国几个主要温室气体研究项目中关于二氧化碳(CO2)排放源研究结果的综合分析,结合最新资料,对1990年的中国CO2排放源进行了收集和完善,对1994年中国CO2排放源重新做了计算.其中,工业生产过程的CO2排放,在以前的研究中仅仅计算了水泥一项,本研究中我们增加了石灰、钢铁、电解铝三项,力求使结果更接近实际情况.结果表明,1990年和1994年中国CO2矿物燃料燃烧和工业过程总排放分别为2218.9×106t(合605.1×106t碳)和2787.8×106t(合760.3×106t碳),分别占当年全球CO2总排放的10.2%和12.7%.能源和工业生产活动的CO2排放均有不同程度的增长.矿物燃料燃烧是中国CO2的最大排放源,占总排放的90%以上.对CO2排放源的不确定性分析表明,中国CO2排放存在大于10%的减排潜力.     

An Overview of Terrestrial Sequestration of Carbon Dioxide: the United States Department of Energy's Fossil Energy R&D Program

Increasing concentrations of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases (GHG) in the Earth's atmosphere have the potential to enhance the natural greenhouse effect, which may result in climatic changes. The main anthropogenic contributors to this increase are fossil fuel combustion, land use conversion, and soil cultivation. It is clear that overcoming the challenge of global climate change will require a combination of approaches, including increased energy efficiency, energy conservation, alternative energy sources, and carbon (C) capture and sequestration. The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is sponsoring the development of new technologies that can provide energy and promote economic prosperity while reducing GHG emissions. One option that can contribute to achieving this goal is the capture and sequestration of CO₂ in geologic formations. An alternative approach is C sequestration in terrestrial ecosystsems through natural processes. Enhancing such natural pools (known as natural sequestration) can make a significant contribution to CO₂ management strategies with the potential to sequester about 290 Tg C/y in U.S. soils. In addition to soils, there is also a large potential for C sequestration in above and belowground biomass in forest ecosystems.A major area of interest to DOE's fossil energy program is reclaimed mined lands, of which there may be 0.63 ×10⁶ ha in the U.S. These areas are essentially devoid of soil C; therefore, they provide an excellent opportunity to sequester C in both soils and vegetation. Measurement of C in these ecosystems requires the development of new technology and protocols that are accurate and economically viable. Field demonstrations are needed to accurately determine C sequestration potential and to demonstrate the ecological and aesthetic benefits in improved soil and water quality, increased biodiversity, and restored ecosystems.The DOE's research program in natural sequestration highlights fundamental and applied studies, such as the development of measurement, monitoring, and verification technologies and protocols and field tests aimed at developing techniques for maximizing the productivity of hitherto infertile soils and degraded ecosystems.     

Carbon Sequestration and Turnover in Semiarid Savannas and Dry Forest

Data on carbon and biomass budgets under different land use in tropical savannas and some dry forests are reviewed. Global data show wide ranges of biomass carbon stocks (20-150 Mg C ha-1), net primary production (2-15 Mg C ha-1y-1) and litter production (2-10 Mg C ha-1y-1) for the semiarid tropics. Although ranges for soil carbon are also wide, an average figure for the top 20 cm is probably 10 g C kg-1, or about 25 Mg C ha-1. In order to arrive at a better understanding of C budgets and their controls, two regional reviews are presented for NE Brazil and W. Africa.In NE Brazil approximately 40% of the lands have "near-climax" native vegetation. Less than 10% of the area is planted annually, but about 3-4 times that area is affected by shifting cultivation which has an average cycle of 5 y arable use followed by 20 y or more recovery. Standing biomass of native caatinga shows nearly the full global range with 2-50 Mg C ha-1. Litter fall around 1-2 Mg C ha-1y-1 is partly decomposed and partly consumed by animals, resulting in low average soil C levels near 8 g kg-1, or 20 Mg C ha-1. Under cultivation, C sequestration is decreased, and soils lose approximately half their C stocks before being abandoned.In W. Africa between 50-70% of the land is under a management regime with minimal C returns to the soils. Overgrazing and over-exploitation for fuel wood has resulted in land degradation. Short fallow periods on cultivated lands have caused serious declines in soil C stocks. Both C sequestration and stocks are therefore lower in W. Africa than in NE Brazil.Improvements in the C sequestration in these semi arid regions depend on an increase in crop production under suitable rotations, improved fallow and animal husbandry, and a limitation on biomnass burning. Use of fertilizer is required for improved productivities but socioeconomic constraints largely prevent such improvements, resulting in a very limited scope for changes in soil C management.     

Soil Carbon Sequestration in India

With a large land area and diverse ecoregions, there is a considerable potential of terrestrial/soil carbon sequestration in India. Of the total land area of 329 million hectares (Mha), 297 Mha is the land area comprising 162 Mha of arable land, 69 Mha of forest and woodland, 11 Mha of permanent pasture, 8 Mha of permanent crops and 58 Mha is other land uses. Thesoil organic carbon (SOC) pool is estimated at 21 Pg (petagram = Pg = 1 ×10¹⁵ g= billion ton) to 30-cm depth and 63 Pg to 150-cm depth. The soil inorganic carbon (SIC) pool is estimated at 196 Pg to 1-m depth. The SOC concentration in most cultivated soils is less than 5 g/kg compared with 15 to 20 g/kg in uncultivated soils. Low SOC concentration is attributed to plowing, removal of crop residue and other biosolids, and mining of soil fertility. Accelerated soil erosion by water leads to emission of 6 Tg C/y. Important strategies of soil C sequestration include restoration of degraded soils, and adoption of recommended management practices (RMPs) of agricultural and forestry soils. Potential of soil C sequestration in India is estimated at 7 to 10 Tg C/y for restoration of degraded soils and ecosystems, 5 to 7 Tg C/y for erosion control, 6 to 7 Tg C/y for adoption of RMPs on agricultural soils, and 22 to 26 Tg C/y for secondary carbonates. Thus, total potential of soil C sequestration is 39 to 49 (44± 5) Tg C/y.     

Domestic Combustion of Biomass Fuels in Developing Countries: A Major Source of Atmospheric Pollutants

Biomass burning has important impacts on atmospheric chemistry and climate. Fires in tropical forests and savannas release large quantities of trace gases and particulate matter. Combustion of biofuels for cooking and heating constitutes a less spectacular but similarly widespread biomass burning activity. To provide the groundwork for a quantification of this source, we determined in rural Zimbabwe the emissions of CO₂, CO, and NO from more than 100 domestic fires fueled by wood, agricultural residues, and dung. The results indicate that, compared to open savanna fires, emissions from domestic fires are shifted towards products of incomplete combustion. A tentative global analysis shows that the source strength of domestic biomass burning is on the order of 1500 Tg CO₂–C yr^–1, 140 Tg CO–C yr^–1, and 2.5 Tg NO–N yr^–1. This represents contributions of about 7 to 20% to the global budget of these gases.     

The potential for short-rotation woody crops to reduce U.S. CO2 emissions

Short-rotation woody crops (SRWC) could potentially displace fossil fuels and thus mitigate CO₂ buildup in the atmosphere. To determine how much fossil fuel SRWC might displace in the United States and what the associated fossil carbon savings might be, a series of assumptions must be made. These assumptions concern the net SRWC biomass yields per hectare (after losses); the amount of suitable land dedicated to SRWC production; wood conversion efficiencies to electricity or liquid fuels; the energy substitution properties of various fuels; and the amount of fossil fuel used in growing, harvesting, transporting, and converting SRWC biomass. Assuming the current climate, present production, and conversion technologies and considering a conservative estimate of the U.S. land base available for SRWC (14 × 10⁶ ha), we calculate that SRWC energy could displace 33.2 to 73.1 × 10⁶ Mg of fossil carbon releases, 3–6% of the current annual U.S. emissions. The carbon mitigation potential per unit of land is larger with the substitution of SRWC for coal-based electricity production than for the substitution of SRWC-derived ethanol for gasoline. Assuming current climate, predicted conversion technology advancements, an optimistic estimate of the U.S. land base available for SRWC (28 × 10⁶ ha), and an optimistic average estimate of net SRWC yields (22.4 dry Mg/ha), we calculate that SRWC energy could displace 148 to 242 × 10⁶ Mg of annual fossil fuel carbon releases. Under this scenario, the carbon mitigation potential of SRWC-based electricity production would be equivalent to about 4.4% of current global fossil fuel emissions and 20% of current U.S. fossil fuel emissions.Research sponsored by the Biofuels Systems Division, U.S. Department of Energy, under contract DE-AC05-840R21400 with Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc. Environmental Sciences Division Publication number 3952.     

Phytomass carbon pool of trees and forests in India

The study reports estimates of above ground phytomass carbon pools in Indian forests for 1992 and 2002 using two different methodologies. The first estimate was derived from remote sensing based forest area and crown density estimates, and growing stock data for 1992 and 2002 and the estimated pool size was in the range 2,626–3,071 Tg C (41 to 48 Mg C ha^???1) and 2,660–3,180 Tg C (39 to 47 Mg C ha^???1) for 1992 and 2002, respectively. The second methodology followed IPCC 2006 guidelines and using an initial 1992 pool of carbon, the carbon pool for 2002 was estimated to be in the range of 2,668–3,112 Tg C (39 to 46 Mg C ha^???1), accounting for biomass increment and removals for the period concerned. The estimated total biomass increment was about 458 Tg over the period 1992–2002. Removals from forests include mainly timber and fuel wood, whereby the latter includes large uncertainty as reported extraction is lower than actual consumption. For the purpose of this study, the annual extraction values of 23 million m³ for timber and 126 million m³ for fuel wood were used. Out of the total area, 10 million ha are plantation forests with an average productivity (3.2 Mg ha^???1 year^???1) that is higher than natural forests, a correction of 408 Tg C for the 10 year period was incorporated in total estimated phytomass carbon pool of Indian forests. This results in an estimate for the net sink of 4 Tg C year^???1. Both approaches indicate Indian forests to be sequestering carbon and both the estimates are in agreement with recent studies. A major uncertainty in Indian phytomass carbon pool dynamics is associated with trees outside forests and with soil organic carbon dynamics. Using recent remote-sensing based estimates of tree cover and growing stock outside forests, the estimated phytomass carbon pool for trees outside forests for the year 2002, is 934 Tg C with a national average tree carbon density of 4 Mg C ha^???1 in non-forest area, in contrast to an average density of 43 Mg C ha^???1 in forests. Future studies will have to consider dynamics in both trees outside forests and soil for total terrestrial carbon dynamics.     

Potential impact of climate change on carbon in agricultural soils in Canada 2000–2099

Under the threat of global warming it is important to determine the impact that future changes in climate may have on the environment and to what extent any adverse effects can be mitigated. In this study we assessed the impact that climate change scenarios may have on soil carbon stocks in Canada and examined the potential for agricultural management practices to improve or maintain soil quality. Historical weather data from 1951 to 2001 indicated that semi-arid soils in western Canada have become warmer and dryer and air temperatures have increased during the spring and winter months. Results from the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM1,2) under two climate change forcing scenarios also indicated that future temperatures would increase more in the spring and winter. Precipitation increased significantly under the IPCC IS92a scenario and agreed with historical trends in eastern Canada whereas the IPCC SRES B2 scenario indicated very little change in precipitation and better matched historical trends in western Canada. The Century model was used to examine the influence of climate change on agricultural soil carbon (C) stocks in Canada. Relative to simulations using historical weather data, model results under the SRES B2 climate scenario indicated that agricultural soils would lose 160 Tg of carbon by 2099 and under the IS92a scenario would lose 53 Tg C. Carbon was still lost from soils in humid climatic regions even though C inputs from crops increased by 10–13%. Carbon factors associated with changes in management practices were also estimated under both climate change scenarios. There was little difference in factors associated with conversion from conventional to no-till agriculture, while carbon factors associated with the conversion of annual crops to perennial grass were lower than for historical data in semi-arid soils because water stress hampered crop production but were higher in humid soils.     

中国森林乔木林碳储量及其固碳潜力预测

加强对我国森林碳储量和固碳潜力的研究,是制定中国增汇减排政策的重要依据,对我国国际气候谈判和全面了解森林碳汇潜力具有重要作用。利用我国第七次和第八次森林资源清查中各优势树种的面积和蓄积量数据,采用IPCC材积源生物量法（volume-biomass method),估算了我国森林（乔木林）碳储量和碳密度及其分布,分析我国不同省份天然乔木林和人工乔木林碳储量龄组结构特征;建立分区域、分起源主要优势树种的单位面积蓄积-林龄Logistic生长方程,结合我国森林2020年和2030年面积蓄积增长目标,预测我国乔木林2010—2050年间碳汇潜力。结果表明：第八次清查期间中国乔木林总碳储量为6135.68 Tg,碳密度为37.28 Mg/hm ²;天然乔木林和人工乔木林的碳储量分别为5246.07 Tg和889.61 Tg,分别占总碳储量的85.50%和14.50%。到2050年,中国乔木林和新造林的总碳储量和平均碳密度将分别达到11125.76 Tg和52.52 Mg/hm ²,与2010年相比分别增加81%和41%。分析结果表明中国乔木林有很大的碳汇潜力,将在应对和减缓全球气候变化中发挥重要作用。     

Assessment and Measurement Issues Related to Soil Carbon Sequestration in Land-Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) Projects under the Kyoto Protocol

Mitigating the potential large negative impacts of a change in the earth's climate will require strong and definite actions in the different economic sectors, particularly within agriculture and forestry. Specifically, soils deserve a close examination due to their large carbon mitigation potential. The Kyoto protocol establishes the possibility for crediting greenhouse gas emission reductions from forestry and agriculture activities. In most circumstances, particularly those regarding developing countries, greenhouse gas mitigation activities will be carried out through projects. These projects will have to meet a series of criteria, for the carbon benefits to be measurable, transparent, verifiable and certified. These criteria include: establishing credible baselines (without-project or reference scenario), additionality, permanence, quantifying and reducing potential leakage of greenhouse gases across project borders, coping with natural or human induced risks, accurately measuring changes in carbon stocks using carbon accounting techniques, and – in the case of the Clean DevelopmentMechanism – resulting in sustainable development benefits. In this paper we describe the methods and approaches that have been developed to cope with the different criteria and discuss their implications for carbon sequestration in soils. Soil carbon represents the largest carbon pool of terrestrial ecosystems, and has been estimated to have one of the largest potentials to sequester carbon worldwide. However, getting credits from soil carbon sequestration through project activities presents several challenges: the need to monitor small incremental changes in soil carbon content relative to large carbon pools, long-time periods to accrue the full carbon benefits, high local variability of soil carbon content, and relatively costly soil carbon measurement procedures. Also, the responses of soil C stocks to forestry and agriculture activities are complex and need careful attention. Specifically, the time dynamics of soil C responses to land use changes, the diversity of soil types, soil-plant interactions, and the availability of accurate soil C inventories, should be considered to successfully implement LULUCF projects.     

Terrestrial carbon pools in southeast and south-central United States

Analyses of regional carbon sources and sinks are essential to assess the economical feasibility of various carbon sequestration technologies for mitigating atmospheric CO₂ accumulation and for preventing global warming. Such an inventory is a prerequisite for regional trading of CO₂ emissions. As a U.S. Department of Energy Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partner, we have estimated the state-level terrestrial carbon pools in the southeast and south-central US. This region includes: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. We have also projected the potential for terrestrial carbon sequestration in the region. Texas is the largest contributor (34%) to greenhouse gas emission in the region. The total terrestrial carbon storage (forest biomass and soils) in the southeast and south-central US is estimated to be 130 Tg C/year. An annual forest carbon sink (estimated as 76 Tg C/year) could compensate for 13% of the regional total annual greenhouse gas emission (505 Tg C, 1990 estimate). Through proper policies and the best land management practices, 54 Tg C/year could be sequestered in soils. Thus, terrestrial sinks can capture 23% of the regional total greenhouse emission and hence are one of the most cost-effective options for mitigating greenhouse emission in the region.     

Sink Potential of Canadian Agricultural Soils

Net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from Canadian crop and livestock production were estimated for 1990, 1996 and 2001 and projected to 2008. Net emissions were also estimated for three scenarios (low (L), medium (M) and high (H)) of adoption of sink enhancing practices above the projected 2008 level. Carbon sequestration estimates were based on four sink-enhancing activities: conversion from conventional to zero tillage (ZT), reduced frequency of summerfallow (SF), the conversion of cropland to permanent cover crops (PC), and improved grazing land management (GM). GHG emissions were estimated with the Canadian Economic and Emissions Model for Agriculture (CEEMA). CEEMA estimates levels of production activities within the Canadian agriculture sector and calculates the emissions and removals associated with those levels of activities. The estimates indicate a decline in net emissions from 54 Tg CO₂–Eq yr^–1 in1990 to 52 Tg CO₂–Eq yr^–1 in 2008. Adoption of thesink-enhancing practices above the level projected for 2008 resulted in further declines in emissions to 48 Tg CO₂–Eq yr^–1 (L), 42 TgCO₂–Eq yr^–1 (M) or 36 Tg CO₂–Eq yr^–1 (H). Among thesink-enhancing practices, the conversion from conventional tillage to ZT provided the largest C sequestration potential and net reduction in GHG emissions among the scenarios. Although rates of C sequestration were generally higher for conversion of cropland to PC and adoption of improved GM, those scenarios involved smaller areas of land and therefore less C sequestration. Also, increased areas of PC were associated with an increase in livestock numbers and CH₄ and N₂O emissions from enteric fermentation andmanure, which partially offset the carbon sink. The CEEMA estimates indicate that soil C sinks are a viable option for achieving the UNFCCC objective of protecting and enhancing GHG sinks and reservoirs as a means of reducing GHG emissions (UNFCCC, 1992).     

Considering the influence of sequestration duration and carbon saturation on estimates of soil carbon capacity

Rates of soil C sequestration have previously been estimated for a number of different land management activities, and these estimates continue to improve as more data become available. The time over which active sequestration occurs may be referred to as the sequestration duration. Integrating soil C sequestration rates with durations provides estimates of potential change in soil C capacity and more accurate estimates of the potential to sequester C. In agronomic systems, changing from conventional plow tillage to no-till can increase soil C by an estimated 16±3%, whereas increasing rotation intensity can increase soil C by an estimated 6±3%. The increase in soil C following a change in rotation intensity, however, may occur over a slightly longer period (26 yr) than that for tillage cessation (21 yr). Sequestration strategies for grasslands have, on average, longer sequestration durations (33 yr) than for croplands. Estimates for sequestration rates and durations are mean values and can differ greatly between individual sites and management practices. As the annual sequestration rate declines over the sequestration duration period, soil C approaches a new steady state. Sequestration duration is synonymous with the time to which soil C steady state is reached. However, soils could potentially sequester additional C following additional changes in management until the maximum soil C capacity, or soil C saturation, is achieved. Carbon saturation of the soil mineral fraction is not well understood, nor is it readily evident. We provide evidence of soil C saturation and we discuss how the steady state C level and the level of soil C saturation together influence the rate and duration of C sequestration associated with changes in land management.     

Description and Application of a Model for Simulating Regional Nitrogen Cycling and Calculating Nitrogen Flux

A regional nitrogen cycle model, named IAP-N, was designed for simulating regional nitrogen （N） cycling and calculating N fluxes flowing among cultivated soils, crops, and livestock, as well as human, atmospheric and other systems. The conceptual structure and calculation methods and procedures of this model are described in detail. All equations of the model are presented. In addition, definitions of all the involved variables and parameters are given. An application of the model in China at the national scale is presented. In this example, annual surpluses of consumed synthetic N fertilizer; emissions of nitrous oxide （N2O）, ammonia （NH3） and nitrogen oxide （NOx）; N loss from agricultural lands due to leaching and runoff; and sources and sinks of anthropogenic reactive N （Nr） were estimated for the period 1961-2004. The model estimates show that surpluses of N fertilizer started to occur in the mid 1990s and amounted to 5.7 Tg N yr^-1 in the early 2000s. N20 emissions related to agriculture were estimated as 0.69 Tg N yr^-1 in 2004, of which 58% was released directly from N added to agricultural soils. Total NH3 and NOx emissions in 2004 amounted to 4.7 and 4.9 Tg N yr^-1, respectively. About 3.9 Tg N yr^-1 of N was estimated to have flowed out of the cultivated soil layer in 2004, which accounted for 33% of applied synthetic N fertilizer. Anthropogenic Nr sources changed from 2.8 （1961） to 28.1 Tg N yr^-1 （2004）, while removal （sinks） changed from to 2.1 to 8.4 Tg N yr^-1. The ratio of anthropogenic Nr sources to sinks was only 1.4 in 1961 but 3.3 in 2004. Further development of the IAP-N model is suggested to focus upon： Ca） inter-comparison with other regional N models; （b） overcoming the limitations of the current model version, such as adaptation to other regions, high-resolution database, and so on; and （c） developing the capacity to estimate the safe threshold of anthropogenic Nr source to sink ratios.     

Simulating Crop Net Primary Production in China from 2000 to 2050 by Linking the Crop-C model with a FGOALS＇s Model Climate Change Scenario

Net primary production （NPP） of crop represents the capacity of sequestrating atmospheric CO2 in agro-ecosystem, and it plays an important role in terrestrial carbon cycling. By linking the Crop-C model with climate change scenario projected by a coupled GCM FGOALS via geographical information system （GIS） techniques, crop NPP in China was simulated from 2000 to 2050. The national averaged surface air temperature from FGOALS is projected to increase by 1.0℃ over this period and the corresponding atmospheric CO2 concentration is 535 ppm by 2050 under the IPCC A1B scenario. With a spatial resolution of 10 ×10 km^2, model simulation indicated that an annual average increase of 0.6 Tg C yr^-1 （Tg=10^12 g） would be possible under the A1B scenario. The NPP in the late 2040s would increase by 5% （30 Tg C） within the 98×10^6 hm^2 cropland area in contrast with that in the early 2000s. A further investigation suggested that changes in the NPP would not be evenly distributed in China. A higher increase would occur in a majority of regions located in eastern and northwestern China, while a slight reduction would appear in Hebei and Tianjin in northern China. The spatial characteristics of the crop NPP change are attributed primarily to the uneven distribution of temperature change.