径向基函数神经网络需水预测研究

在分析山西省历年用水量和人均用水量的基础上，建立径向基函数神经网络需水预测模型，采用最近邻聚类学习算法确定径向基函数的宽度、选取聚类中心和权值。采用丰富的需水预测因子作为模型的输入，网络输出需水预测值。预测结果表明，径向基函数神经网络需水预测模型运算速度快，有较高的预测精度。需水预测可为水资源规划和配置提供依据。     

长江口环境用水量计算方法探讨

环境用水在水资源配置中不能忽视，但环境用水问题的研究在理论上和具体计算方法上，目前国内外尚未有系统的成果。以长江口为例，以维持长江口水盐平衡并兼顾水沙平衡为目标，分析了长江口所必需的环境用水量。     

人均综合用水量方法预测需水量-观察未来社会用水的有效途径

科学的需水预测是水资源规划和供水工程建设的重要依据.过去,我国水资源规划部门对需水量的预测普遍偏高,造成对水规划和供水工程在不同程度上的误导.1987年,笔者在分析研究国内外预测资料的基础上.提出人均综合用水量加趋势微调方法(以下简称人均用水量法)预测全国需水量,实践证明这方法是有效的,成果是可信的.本文介绍这一创新的预测方法的概念与其应用,与过去有关部门预测成果进行比较,并展望本世纪我国水资源可持续利用的前景,以供水资源规划和供水工程建设部门参考.     

基于等维新息灰色马尔可夫模型的大连城市用水量预测

对城市用水量的科学预测是城市水资源合理开发、利用和管理的基础。在传统灰色预测模型的基础上建立了等维新息灰色预测模型,并利用马尔可夫链预测模型预测出结果的波动范围,形成等维新息灰色马尔可夫预测模型。再以1998~2007年大连城市用水量实测值作为原始数据,构建预测模型,预测其2008~2012年用水量。结果表明:等维新息灰色马尔可夫预测模型预测结果的误差更小,精度更高。该预测结果可以为大连未来城市供水规划提供参考依据。     

杭州市旅游开发对城市环境的影响

本文阐述了旅游开发．对杭州市的环境影响．大客流量使城市生活饮用水和工业用水量剧增，地下水开采量增大．从而引发地面沉降和岩溶塌陷问题．大量遗弃物对环境特别是水质产生严重影响，水质的恶化，又加剧了岩溶发育。     

法库县水资源状况及开发利用分析

法库县地表水水资源在时空分布差异很大,但地下水的储量很丰富。水资源开发利用有着巨大的潜力。预测2015年用水总量、地下水用水量及地表水用水量均在控制指标范围内。灌溉水利用系数0.55与规划2015年灌溉水有效利用系数0.609还有一定差距。通过对法库县水资源现状及开发利用程度的分析与需水预测,为今后合理开发利用水资源提供了数据依据和参考作用。     

城市地下管线规划建设管理中存在的主要问题与对策--访中国城市规划设计研究院城市水系规划设计研究所宋兰合所长

对我们的供水管网来讲，配水管网最终布局要通过几个步骤，第一对整个城市的用水量进行预测；第二在预测增长量的基础上对于原有系统统一做一个水量的平衡；第三在此基础上进一步规划工程的规模；第四个步骤是水源论证；第五、第六是取水工程和净水下程涉及到工程技术问题；第七个步骤是输水工程，主要是源水的输送。最终我们是根据以上儿个步骤，对配水管网在城市空间上的一个整体的布局。对于污水系统，第一步要确立排水体制，现在来讲，规模以上的城市以及新建的城限是要求雨污分流的，但在一些具体的地方，可能对于雨污分流的具体的方式会有所不同。第二步是要根据我们城市的一个建设的布局和用水量估算污水。第三步是污水处理场的规划选址问题。第四步根据排水量和处理厂的布局进行污水管系统的定线。雨水系统：第一步径流设计，第二步泄水区划分，第三步对于管（渠）系统进行布置。这是管网现在规划的现状。     

中国的用水何时达到顶峰

从中国实际用水增长业已放慢的趋势、已经开始启动的供水价格的大幅上升趋势和水价与用水的关系、经济增长方式由粗放型向集约型转变(高耗水行业已经接近顶峰)和用水与产业结构的关系、日益严格的环境立法和执法对用水的影响、中国水资源本身的限制等5个方面,分析中国的用水变化趋势,提出中国的农业用水量、工业用水量和总用水量目前均已接近顶峰,可望在10年内达到顶峰,最大用水量不大可能超过6500×108m3。     

地下水生态系统保护探讨

从生态保护的角度,指出现行地下水管理存在的问题;提出维持地下水生态系统健康发展的可持续开采量的概念;探讨了不同地下水生态系统环境用水量的计算方法。地下水的开发利用应以可持续开采量作为最大闽值。通过预留环境用水量,确定生态水位,建立生态缓冲带,实施生态调度,制定合理开发利用方案等措施,可有效修复和保护日益恶化的生态环境。     

江西省矿山地质环境综合评价方法初探

矿业开发产生的环境地质问题主要有水土流失，土地污染、地面变形与塌陷、次生崩滑流灾害、水环境污染等。矿山地质环境综合评价单元的划分是根据矿山地质环境影响程度分区界线、矿产资源开发利用规划分区界线、地质灾害易发程度分区界线确定评价最小单元。选取矿山开发对地质环境的影响程度、地质灾害易发程度、矿产资源开发利用规划、矿山生态环境恢复治理难易程度等作为评价因子。根据各因子对矿山地质环境质量影响存在重大差异及可分层次的实际情况，采用敏感因子一综合分值评价模型作为矿山地质环境综合评价模型。首先对各参评因子进行1级评价，在此基础上对整个系统进行综合评价(2级评价)。在进行2级综合评价时，对存在的敏感因子进行敏感因子评价。然后根据综合指数的大小，将矿山地质环境综合质量划分不良、一般、较好3个等级。     

Unity of the national and the international in the socio-cultural development of the peoples of the USSR

International unity is becoming ever stronger in this country owing to an increasing similarity in the development of the cultural environment. This comprises the provision of all the country's republics with a sufficient number of schools, theatres, and other institutions and cultural information media in accordance with the needs of the population. An important part is played by the rise in ‘the general educational level, as well as the level of professional qualifications and skills. Among all the Soviet nations and nationalities, this rise being more rapid among formerly backward peoples. Prominent among the factors of internationalization is the progressive development of the nationalities’ cultural resources, while professional culture is being increasingly brought within the reach of the masses.The implementation of the nationalities policy promotes the all-round development of all Soviet nations and nationalities, their drawing together, the upsurge of the individual capabilities of every Soviet citizen.     

Report of the restudy of the defined global stratotype of the base of the Silurian System

The Global Stratotype Section and Point （GSSP） for the base of the Silurian System was defined in 1985. Since that time, a number of researchers have suggested that this section has serious deficiencies for use as a GSSP. As a result, in 2000, the Subcommission on Silurian Stratigraphy （SSS） proposed undertaking a formal restu@ of this GSSP, which was subsequently approved by the International Commission of Stratigraphy （ICS）. The result of this restudy was the formal proposal that the current GSSP, at 1.6 m above the base of the Birkhill Shale, at Dob＇s Linn, Scotland, should be maintained as the same locality and stratigraphic level, but the bios- tratigraphical definition of the boundary should be revised. The previously defined, basal Silurian grapto- lite zone, the Parakidograptus acuminatus Zone, should be subdivided into a lower Akidograptus ascensus Zone and a higher E acuminatus Zone. The base of the A. ascensus Zone, marked by the first appearance of A. ascensus, should be regarded as the biostratigraphic mark for the base of the Silurian. This proposal has now been formally approved by the SSS and ICS, and ratified by International Union of Geological Sciences. This is the first GSSP to undergo formal restudy and redefini- tion, and the proposal also included a recommended procedure for restudy of GSSPs.     

Deviation of the major axis of the inertia ellipsoid of the Moon from the direction toward the Earth

It is known from observations that the center of mass of the Moon does not coincide with the geometric center of its figure, and the line connecting these two centers is not aligned with the direction toward the center of the Earth, instead deviating toward the Southeast. This stationary deviation of the axis of the inertia ellipsoid of the Moon to the South of the direction toward the Earth is analyzed. A system of five linear differential equations describing the physical libration of the Moon in latitude is considered, and these equations are derived using a new vector method taking into account perturbations from the Earth and partly from the Sun. The characteristic equation of this system is obtained, and all five oscillation frequencies are found. Special attention is paid to the fifth (zero) frequency, for which the solution of the latitude libration equations are stationary and represents a previously unknown additional motion of the rotational axis of theMoon in a cone with a small opening angle. In contrast to the astronomical precession of the Earth, the rotation of the angular-velocity vector is in the positive direction (counter-clockwise), with the period T ₃ = 27.32 days. On this basis, this phenomenon has been named “quasi-precession.” This quasi-precession leads to a stationary inclination of the major axis of the inertia ellipsoid of theMoon to the South (for an observer on Earth), making it possible to explain one component of the observed deviation of the center of mass of the Moon from the direction toward the Earth. The opening angle of the quasiprecession cone is approximately 0.834″.     

The Tendencies of the Development of the Mineral-Resources Sector at the Turn of the Century

Important tendencies in development of the world mineral-resources sector at the beginning of the 21st century were an increase in production and consumption of mineral materials differentiated by types of metals and nonmetallic mineral raw materials, by countries and regions, as well as the concentration of the production of mineral raw materials in a small number of countries, and a reduction in industrial reserves of minerals in the world economy, even at the current stage of their extraction. These tendencies should be taken into account in working out a strategy for development of the Russian mineral raw-material base.     

Causes of the famine among the rural population of the Sahelian zone of the Sudan

Taking the example of W Sudan, an analysis of the climatic incidents leading to the two recent famine disasters is made. On this natural background, the human side is investigated. Focus is directed towards the fragile economic structure of the famine-prone population groups. An early-warning system for famine in the Sahelian Zone is proposed taking grain production and storage, livestock development and the relationship between the prices of livestock and grain as major indicators.     

东濮凹陷北部沙河街组三段中亚段沉积环境分析

东濮凹陷北部沙三中亚段广泛发育盐岩和烃源岩,这两个看似不能共存的物质却在这里互层共生。该时期研究区沉积特征为多盐韵律与多层烃源岩互层共生、连续沉积,单个盐韵律厚度从几米到十几米,烃源岩有机质丰度高、类型好。平面上,两者在湖盆沉积沉降中心共生;垂向上,高有机质丰度、好干酪根类型与高盐度地层具有较好的对应关系。因而成为恢复古气候和古环境的重要研究对象。通过岩石学、古生物学以及Sr/Ba、B/Ga、(V+Ni+Mn)、Fe/Mn、Sr/Cu、Mg/Ca、V/(V+Ni)、稀土元素含量和氯同位素等方法对凹陷北部沙三中亚段的沉积环境进行研究。结果表明,凹陷北部沙三中亚段为深水沉积的还原环境,古盐度较高,达到半咸水-咸水沉积;微量元素和孢粉化石特征表明研究区沙三中亚段为温暖潮湿的环境。     

On the consistency of proposed models for the Pyrenees with the structure of the eastern parts of the belt

The structure of the eastern Pyrenees consists mainly of south-directed thrusts involving basement and cover rocks. An antiformal stack developed by the piling up of basement thrust sheets which outcrop in the Axial zone. These structures account for a thin-skinned thrust model rather than a vertical fault model in which the Axial zone would be essentially autochthonous, and the North-Pyrenean fault the axial plane of a fan thrust system. New data from the Eastern Pyrenees and the thin-skinned model suggest that(1) the structure east of the Pedraforca nappe is similar to that of the Central Pyrenees; (2) the cover rocks of the South-Pyrenean units and of the Axial zone-after restoration—built up a northwards-thickening prism consistent with the existence of a unique Pyrenean sedimentary basin during Mesozoic time; (3) the Axial zone is only a complex antiformal stack developed as a part of South-Pyrenean system related to the Paleogene thrusting-tectonics. The Axial zone palaeogeographic area had no special meaning during Mesozoic time.     

The Importance of the Precipitation and the Susceptibility of the Slopes for the Triggering of Landslides Along the Roads

In order to characterise the influence of the heavyrains on the observed landslides during the 1996–1997hydrological cycle, rainfall records for the last 100years are analysed from 104 stations in easternAndalusia. Regarding the amounts of rain recordedbetween October 1996 and March 1997 in the 104stations studied, 31 presented new all-time records;15 presented values that were 80–100% of thepre-1995 record; 49 stations, 80–50%; and 9stations, < 50%. A map has been devised of thesusceptibility of the materials through which thesouth-eastern Andalusian road network crosses,together with an inventory of the damage caused byinstability phenomena on banks and cuttings of theroad network during the winter of 1996–1997. Therelationships between the rainfall during the studyperiod, the damage caused to the road network and thesusceptibility of the materials affected are analysed.The results indicate that there is a clearcorrespondence between the rainfall recorded and thesusceptibility of the materials with the inventorieddamage. It is concluded that the widespread seriousdamage caused in early 1997 to the roads andsurrounding areas in the Alpujarra region and thecoast of the Province of Granada was mainly caused bythe extraordinarily heavy rains. However, considerablyless damage was observed where the susceptibility ofthe terrain is low, thus highlighting the extremeusefulness of terrain-susceptibility maps for riskprevention and territorial planning.