Impact of a realistic river routing in coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum climate

The presence of large ice sheets over North America and North Europe at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) strongly impacted Northern hemisphere river pathways. Despite the fact that such changes may significantly alter the freshwater input to the ocean, modified surface hydrology has never been accounted for in coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model simulations of the LGM climate. To reconstruct the LGM river routing, we use the ICE-5G LGM topography. Because of the uncertainties in the extent of the Fennoscandian ice sheet in the Eastern part of the Kara Sea, we consider two more realistic river routing scenarios. The first scenario is characterised by the presence of an ice dammed lake south of the Fennoscandian ice sheet, and corresponds to the ICE-5G topography. This lake is fed by the Ob and Yenisei rivers. In the second scenario, both these rivers flow directly into the Arctic Ocean, which is more consistent with the latest QUEEN ice sheet margin reconstructions. We study the impact of these changes on the LGM climate as simulated by the IPSL_CM4 model and focus on the overturning thermohaline circulation. A comparison with a classical LGM simulation performed using the same model and modern river basins as designed in the PMIP2 exercise leads to the following conclusions: (1) The discharge into the North Atlantic Ocean is increased by 2,000 m³/s between 38° and 54°N in both simulations that contain LGM river routing, compared to the classical LGM experiment. (2) The ice dammed lake is shown to have a weak impact, relative to the classical simulation, both in terms of climate and ocean circulation. (3) In contrast, the North Atlantic deep convection and meridional overturning are weaker than during the classical LGM run if the Ob and Yenisei rivers flow directly into the Arctic Ocean. The total discharge into the Arctic Ocean is increased by 31,000 m³/s, relative to the classical LGM simulation. Consequentially, northward ocean heat transport is weaker, and sea ice more extensive, in better agreement with existing proxy data.     

A coupled climate model simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum,Part 2: approach to equilibrium

The climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM) is simulated with a coupled climate model. The simulated climate undergoes a rapid adjustment during the first several decades after imposition of LGM boundary conditions, as described in Part 1, and then evolves toward equilibrium over 900 model years. The climate simulated by the coupled model at this period is compared with observationally-based LGM reconstructions and with LGM results obtained with an atmosphere-mixed layer (slab) ocean version of the model in order to investigate the role of ocean dynamics in the LGM climate. Global mean surface air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) decrease by about 10 °C and 5.6 °C in the coupled model which includes ocean dynamics, compared to decreases of 6.3 and 3.8 °C in slab ocean case. The coupled model simulates a cooling of about 6.5 °C over the tropics, which is larger than that of the CLIMAP reconstruction (1.7 °C) and larger than that of the slab ocean simulation (3.3 °C), but which is in reasonable agreement with some recent proxy estimates. The ocean dynamics of the coupled model captures features found in the CLIMAP reconstructions such as a relative maximum of ocean cooling over the tropical Pacific associated with a mean La Niña-like response and lead to a more realistic SST pattern than in the slab model case. The reduction in global mean precipitation simulated in the coupled model is larger (15%) than that simulated with the slab ocean model (~10%) in conjunction with the enhanced cooling. Some regions, such as the USA and the Mediterranean region, experience increased precipitation in accord with proxy paleoclimate evidence. The overall much drier climate over the ocean leads to higher sea surface salinity (SSS) in most ocean basins except for the North Atlantic where SSS is considerably lower due to an increase in the supply of fresh water from the Mississippi and Amazon rivers and presumably a decrease in salt transport by the weakened North Atlantic overturning circulation. The North Atlantic overturning stream function weakens to less than half of the control run value. The overturning is limited to a shallower depth (less than 1000 m) and its outflow is confined to the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Ocean, convection is much stronger than in the control run leading to a stronger overturning stream function associated with enhanced Antarctic Bottom Water formation. As a result, Southern Ocean water masses fill the entire deep ocean. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport through the Drake Passage increases by about 25%. The ACC transport, despite weaker zonal winds, is enhanced due to changes in bottom pressure torque. The weakening of the overturning circulation in the North Atlantic and the accompanying 30% decrease in the poleward ocean heat transport contrasts with the strengthening of the overturning circulation in the Southern Ocean and a 40% increase in heat transport. As a result, sea ice coverage and thickness are affected in opposite senses in the two hemispheres. The LGM climate simulated by the coupled model is in reasonable agreement with paleoclimate proxy evidence. The dynamical response of the ocean in the coupled model plays an important role in determining the simulated, and undoubtedly, the actual, LGM climate.     

A comparison of PMIP2 model simulations and the MARGO proxy reconstruction for tropical sea surface temperatures at last glacial maximum

Results from multiple model simulations are used to understand the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) response to the reduced greenhouse gas concentrations and large continental ice sheets of the last glacial maximum (LGM). We present LGM simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project, Phase 2 (PMIP2) and compare these simulations to proxy data collated and harmonized within the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean Surface Project (MARGO). Five atmosphere–ocean coupled climate models (AOGCMs) and one coupled model of intermediate complexity have PMIP2 ocean results available for LGM. The models give a range of tropical (defined for this paper as 15°S–15°N) SST cooling of 1.0–2.4°C, comparable to the MARGO estimate of annual cooling of 1.7 ± 1°C. The models simulate greater SST cooling in the tropical Atlantic than tropical Pacific, but interbasin and intrabasin variations of cooling are much smaller than those found in the MARGO reconstruction. The simulated tropical coolings are relatively insensitive to season, a feature also present in the MARGO transferred-based estimates calculated from planktonic foraminiferal assemblages for the Indian and Pacific Oceans. These assemblages indicate seasonality in cooling in the Atlantic basin, with greater cooling in northern summer than northern winter, not captured by the model simulations. Biases in the simulations of the tropical upwelling and thermocline found in the preindustrial control simulations remain for the LGM simulations and are partly responsible for the more homogeneous spatial and temporal LGM tropical cooling simulated by the models. The PMIP2 LGM simulations give estimates for the climate sensitivity parameter of 0.67°–0.83°C per Wm⁻², which translates to equilibrium climate sensitivity for doubling of atmospheric CO₂ of 2.6–3.1°C.     

High-resolution simulations of the last glacial maximum climate over Europe: a solution to discrepancies with continental palaeoclimatic reconstructions?

The analyses of low-resolution models simulations of the last glacial maximum (LGM, 21 kyr BP) climate have revealed a large discrepancy between all the models and pollen-based palaeoclimatic reconstructions. In general, the models are too warm relative to the observations, especially in winter, where the difference is of the order of 10°C over western Europe. One of the causes of this discrepancy may be related to the low spatial resolution of these models. To assess the impact of using high-resolution models on simulated climate sensitivity, we use three approaches to obtain high-resolution climate simulations over Europe: first an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with a stretched grid over Europe, second a homogeneous T106 AGCM (high resolution everywhere on the globe) and last a limited area model (LAM) nested in a low-resolution AGCM. With all three methods, we have performed simulations of the European climate for present and LGM conditions, according to the experimental design recommended by the Palaeoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Model results have been compared with updated pollen-based palaeoclimatic indicators for temperature and precipitation that were initially developed in PMIP. For each model, a low-resolution global run was also performed. As expected, the low-resolution simulations underestimate the large cooling indicated by pollen data, especially in winter, despite revised slightly warmer reconstructions of the temperatures of the coldest month, and show results in the range of those obtained in PMIP with similar models. The two high-resolution AGCMs do not improve the temperature field and cannot account for the discrepancy between model results and data, especially in winter. However, they are able to reproduce trends in precipitation more closely than their low-resolution counterparts do, but the simulated climates are still not as arid as depicted by the data. Conversely, the LAM temperature results compare well with climate reconstructions in winter but the simulated hydrological cycle is not consistent with the data. Finally, these results are discussed in regard of other possible causes for discrepancies between models and palaeoclimatic reconstructions for the LGM European climate.     

不同分辨率CCSM4对东亚和中国气候模拟能力分析

本文利用通用气候系统模式CCSM4在三种水平分辨率下的工业化革命前期气候模拟试验,结合观测和再分析资料,比较了各分辨率下模式对中国温度和降水、东亚海平面气压和850 hPa风场的模拟能力,综合评价了模式分辨率对东亚和中国气候模拟的影响.结果表明,三种分辨率对中国温度均具有很好的模拟能力,除春季外,低分辨率(T31,约3.75°×3.75°)对全年温度的模拟能力均要稍好于中(f19,约1.9°×2.5°)、高(f09,约0.9°×1.25°)分辨率;各分辨率对中国降水的模拟能力远不如温度,除冬季外全年都出现的中部地区虚假降水并未因为模式分辨率提高而得到本质改善;对于东亚海平面气压场,低分辨率在冬季模拟能力相对最好,中等分辨率在夏季相对较好,而高分辨率的模拟能力均表现最差;低分辨率对850 hPa东亚冬季风和夏季风的模拟能力均要好于中、高分辨率,而两种较高分辨率的模拟能力则比较接近.总的来说,低分辨率CCSM4在东亚和中国气候模拟中表现出了较大优势,加之其计算代价小,适合进行需要较长时间积分的气候模拟研究.     

Simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum climates using a general circulation model: prescribed versus computed sea surface temperatures

 The climate during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has been simulated using the UK Universities Global Atmospheric Modelling Programme (UGAMP) general circulation model (GCM) with both prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) based on the CLIMAP reconstruction and computed SSTs with a simple thermodynamic slab ocean. Consistent with the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), the other boundary conditions include the large changes in ice-sheet topography and geography, a lower sea level, a lower concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere, and a slightly different insolation pattern at the top of the atmosphere. The results are analysed in terms of changes in atmospheric circulation. Emphasis is given to the changes in surface temperatures, planetary waves, storm tracks and the associated changes in distribution of precipitation. The model responds in a similar manner to the changes in boundary conditions to previous studies in global mean statistics, but differs in its treatment of regional climates. Results also suggest that both the land ice sheets and sea ice introduce significant changes in planetary waves and transient eddy activity, which in turn affect regional climates. The computed SST simulations predict less sea ice and cooler tropical temperatures than those based on CLIMAP SSTs. It is unclear as to whether this is a model and/or a data problem, but the resulting changes in land temperatures and precipitation can be large. Snow mass budget analysis suggests that there is net ice loss along the southern edges of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets and net ice gain over other parts of the two ice sheets. The net accumulation is mainly due to the decrease in ablation in the cold climate rather than to the changes in snowfall. The characteristics of the Greenland ice-sheet mass balance in the LGM simulations is also quite different from those in the present-day (PD) simulations. The ablation in the LGM simulations is negligible while it is a very important process in the ice mass budget in the PD simulations. Received: 10 January 1997 / Accepted: 11 December 1997     

Modeling the tropical Pacific Ocean using a regional coupled climate model

A high-resolution tropical Pacific general circulation model (GCM) coupled to a global atmospheric GCM is described in this paper. The atmosphere component is the 5°×4°global general circulation model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) with 9 levels in the vertical direction. The ocean component with a horizontal resolution of 0.5°, is based on a low-resolution model (2°×1°in longitude-latitude).Simulations of the ocean component are first compared with its previous version. Results show that the enhanced ocean horizontal resolution allows an improved ocean state to be simulated; this involves (1) an apparent decrease in errors in the tropical Pacific cold tongue region, which exists in many ocean models,(2) more realistic large-scale flows, and (3) an improved ability to simulate the interannual variability and a reduced root mean square error (RMSE) in a long time integration. In coupling these component models, a monthly "linear-regression" method is employed to correct the model's exchanged flux between the sea and the atmosphere. A 100-year integration conducted with the coupled GCM (CGCM) shows the effectiveness of such a method in reducing climate drift. Results from years 70 to 100 are described.The model produces a reasonably realistic annual cycle of equatorial SST. The large SSTA is confined to the eastern equatorial Pacific with little propagation. Irregular warm and cold events alternate with a broad spectrum of periods between 24 and 50 months, which is very realistic. But the simulated variability is weaker than the observed and is also asymmetric in the sense of the amplitude of the warm and cold events.     

A Comparison Study of Tropical Pacific Ocean State Estimation： Low-Resolution Assimilation vs. High-Resolution Simulation

A comparison study is performed to contrast the improvements in the tropical Pacific oceanic state of a low-resolution model respectively via data assimilation and by an increase in horizontal resolution.A low resolution model (LR) (1°lat by 2°lon) and a high-resolution model (HR) (0.5°lat by 0.5°lon) are employed for the comparison. The authors perform 20-yr numerical experiments and analyze the annual mean fields of temperature and salinity. The results indicate that the low-resolution model with data assimilation behaves better than the high-resolution model in the estimation of ocean large-scale features.From 1990 to 2000, the average of HR's RMSE (root-mean-square error) relative to independent Tropical Atmosphere Ocean project (TAO) mooring data at randomly selected points is 0.97℃ compared to a RMSE of 0.56℃ for LR with temperature assimilation. Moreover, the LR with data assimilation is more frugal in computation. Although there is room to improve the high-resolution model, the low-resolution model with data assimilation may be an advisable choice in achieving a more realistic large-scale state of the ocean at the limited level of information provided by the current observational system.     

The effect of atmospheric CO2 and ice sheet topography on LGM climate

The role of reduced atmospheric CO₂ concentration and ice sheet topography plus its associated land albedo on the LGM climate is investigated using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice climate system model. The surface cooling induced by the reduced CO₂ concentration is larger than that by the ice sheet topography plus other factors by about 30% for the surface air temperature and by about 100% for the sea surface temperature. A large inter-hemispheric asymmetry in surface cooling with a larger cooling in the Northern Hemisphere is found for both cases. This asymmetric inter-hemispheric temperature response is consistent in the ice sheet topography case with earlier studies using an atmospheric model coupled with a mixed-layer ocean representation, but contrasts with these results in the reduced CO₂ case. The incorporation of ocean dynamics presumably leads to a larger snow and sea ice feedback as a result of the reduction in northward ocean heat transport, mainly as a consequence of the decrease in the North Atlantic overturning circulation by the substantial freshening of the North Atlantic convection regions. A reversed case is found in the Southern Ocean. Overall, the reduction in atmospheric CO₂ concentration accounts for about 60% of the total LGM climate change.     

Impact of ocean model resolution on CCSM climate simulations

The current literature provides compelling evidence suggesting that an eddy-resolving (as opposed to eddy-permitting or eddy-parameterized) ocean component model will significantly impact the simulation of the large-scale climate, although this has not been fully tested to date in multi-decadal global coupled climate simulations. The purpose of this paper is to examine how resolved ocean fronts and eddies impact the simulation of large-scale climate. The model used for this study is the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3.5 (CCSM3.5)—the forerunner to CCSM4. Two experiments are reported here. The control experiment is a 155-year present-day climate simulation using a 0.5° atmosphere component (zonal resolution 0.625 meridional resolution 0.5°; land surface component at the same resolution) coupled to ocean and sea-ice components with zonal resolution of 1.2° and meridional resolution varying from 0.27° at the equator to 0.54° in the mid-latitudes. The second simulation uses the same atmospheric and land-surface models coupled to eddy-resolving 0.1° ocean and sea-ice component models. The simulations are compared in terms of how the representation of smaller scale features in the time mean ocean circulation and ocean eddies impact the mean and variable climate. In terms of the global mean surface temperature, the enhanced ocean resolution leads to a ubiquitous surface warming with a global mean surface temperature increase of about 0.2?°C relative to the control. The warming is largest in the Arctic and regions of strong ocean fronts and ocean eddy activity (i.e., Southern Ocean, western boundary currents). The Arctic warming is associated with significant losses of sea-ice in the high-resolution simulation. The sea surface temperature gradients in the North Atlantic, in particular, are better resolved in the high-resolution model leading to significantly sharper temperature gradients and associated large-scale shifts in the rainfall. In the extra-tropics, the interannual temperature variability is increased with the resolved eddies, and a notable increases in the amplitude of the El Ni?o and the Southern Oscillation is also detected. Changes in global temperature anomaly teleconnections and local air-sea feedbacks are also documented and show large changes in ocean–atmosphere coupling. In particular, local air-sea feedbacks are significantly modified by the increased ocean resolution. In the high-resolution simulation in the extra-tropics there is compelling evidence of stronger forcing of the atmosphere by SST variability arising from ocean dynamics. This coupling is very weak or absent in the low-resolution model.     

The sensitivity of the Late Saalian (140?ka) and LGM (21?ka) Eurasian ice sheets to sea surface conditions

This work focuses on the Late Saalian (140?ka) Eurasian ice sheets?? surface mass balance (SMB) sensitivity to changes in sea surface temperatures (SST). An Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM), forced with two preexisting Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21?ka) SST reconstructions, is used to compute climate at 140 and 21?ka (reference glaciation). Contrary to the LGM, the ablation almost stopped at 140?ka due to the climatic cooling effect from the large ice sheet topography. Late Saalian SST are simulated using an AGCM coupled with a mixed layer ocean. Compared to the LGM, these 140?ka SST show an inter-hemispheric asymmetry caused by the larger ice-albedo feedback, cooling climate. The resulting Late Saalian ice sheet SMB is smaller due to the extensive simulated sea ice reducing the precipitation. In conclusion, SST are important for the stability and growth of the Late Saalian Eurasian ice sheet.     

GCM simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum surface climate of Greenland and Antarctica

 The LMDz variable grid GCM was used to simulate the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ky Bp.) climate of Greenland and Antarctica at a spatial resolution of about 100 km.The high spatial resolution allows to investigate the spatial variability of surface climate change signals, and thus to address the question whether the sparse ice core data can be viewed as representative for the regional scale climate change. This study addresses primarily surface climate parameters because these can be checked against the, limited, ice core record. The changes are generally stronger for Greenland than for Antarctica, as the imposed changes of the forcing boundary conditions (e.g., sea surface temperatures) are more important in the vicinity of Greenland. Over Greenland, and to a limited extent also in Antarctica, the climate shows stronger changes in winter than in summer. The model suggests that the linear relationship between the surface temperature and inversion strength is modified during the LGM. The temperature dependency of the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere alone cannot explain the strong reduction in snowfall over central Greenland; atmospheric circulation changes also play a crucial role. Changes in the high frequency variability of snowfall, atmospheric pressure and temperature are investigated and possible consequences for the interpretation of ice core records are discussed. Using an objective cyclone tracking scheme, the importance of changes of the atmospheric dynamics off the coasts of the ice sheets, especially for the high frequency variability of surface climate parameters, is illustrated. The importance of the choice of the LGM ice sheet topography is illustrated for Greenland, where two different topographies have been used, yielding results that differ quite strongly in certain nontrivial respects. This means that the paleo-topography is a significant source of uncertainty for the modelled paleoclimate. The sensitivity of the Greenland LGM climate to the prescribed sea surface conditions is examined by using two different LGM North Atlantic data sets. Received: 23 October 1997 / Accepted: 17 March 1998     

Tropical disturbances in a GCM

We have analyzed the tropical disturbances in a 11-layer atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) on a 2.5° × 3.75° horizontal grid coupled to a 50 m-mixed layer ocean. Due to the coarse resolution, the GCM is unable to resolve adequately tropical cyclones. The tropical disturbances simulated by the GCM are much weaker and have a much larger horizontal extent. However, they still display much of the essential physics of tropical cyclones, including low-level convergence of mass and moisture, upper tropospheric outflow and a warm core. For most ocean basins the spatial and temporal distribution of the simulated tropical disturbances compares well with the observed tropical cyclones. On doubling the CO₂ concentration, the number of simulated tropical disturbances increases by about 50%. There is a relative increase in the number of more intense tropical disturbances, whose maximum windspeed increases by about 20%. This agrees with the theoretical estimate of Emanuel. However, because the low-resolution of the GCM severely restricts their maximum possible intensity, simulated changes in tropical disturbance intensity should be interpreted cautiously.     

The effect of reduced ocean overturning on the climate of the last glacial maximum

This study focuses on the differences between the present-day climate and the climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM) of 18 000 y BP using a zonally averaged energy balance climate model. The ocean is represented by a 2-D model with prescribed overturning pattern in which the overturning velocities can be adjusted freely. We discuss what influence the use of ice-age conditions (i.e. enhanced land-ice cover, reduced CO₂-concentration and reduced oceanic overturning rate) has on the differences between ice-age and present-day climate. When compared to LGM sea-surface temperatures derived from proxy data, the model is able to simulate fairly well the important features of the meridional distribution of these temperature differences. Applying reduced ocean overturning rates during the LGM significantly decreases poleward heat transport in the oceans, thereby allowing for additional cooling of the polar regions and less cooling of the equatorial region. As a result, the agreement with CLIMAP proxy temperature differences increases, especially in the equatorial region. This mechanism can explain the slight differences in the CLIMAP proxy equatorial surface temperatures between the LGM and the present-day climate.     

Climate Change on Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves: Results From a Regional Downscaled Ocean and Sea-Ice Model Under an A1B Forcing Scenario 2011–2069

Climate change may affect ocean and ice conditions in coastal oceans and thus have significant impacts on coastal infrastructure, marine navigation, and marine ecosystems. In this study a three-dimensional ice–ocean model is developed to examine likely changes of ocean and ice conditions over the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves in response to climate change. The model is configured with a horizontal grid of approximately 7?km and a vertical grid of 46 levels and is run from 1979 to 2069. The projection period is 2011 to 2069 under a median emission scenario A1B used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For the projection period, the surface atmospheric forcing fields used are from the Canadian Regional Climate Model over the North Atlantic. The open boundary conditions come from the Canadian Global Climate Model, Version 3 (CGCM3), adjusted for the 1981–2010 mean of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation model output. The simulated fields over the 1981–2010 period have patterns consistent with observations. Over the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves during the projection period, the model shows general trends of warming, freshening, and decreasing ice. From 2011 to 2069, the model projects that under A1B sea surface temperature will increase by 1.4°C; bottom temperature will increase by 1.6°C; sea surface salinity will decrease by 0.7; bottom salinity will decrease by 0.3; and sea-ice extent will decrease by 70%. The sea level will rise by 0.11?m at the St. John's tide-gauge station because of oceanographic change, and the freshwater transport of the Labrador Current will double as a result of freshening. The regional ice–ocean model reproduces more realistic present climate conditions and projects considerably different future climate conditions than CGCM3.     

Past and future polar amplification of climate change: climate model intercomparisons and ice-core constraints

Climate model simulations available from the PMIP1, PMIP2 and CMIP (IPCC-AR4) intercomparison projects for past and future climate change simulations are examined in terms of polar temperature changes in comparison to global temperature changes and with respect to pre-industrial reference simulations. For the mid-Holocene (MH, 6,000 years ago), the models are forced by changes in the Earth’s orbital parameters. The MH PMIP1 atmosphere-only simulations conducted with sea surface temperatures fixed to modern conditions show no MH consistent response for the poles, whereas the new PMIP2 coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models systematically simulate a significant MH warming both for Greenland (but smaller than ice-core based estimates) and Antarctica (consistent with the range of ice-core based range). In both PMIP1 and PMIP2, the MH annual mean changes in global temperature are negligible, consistent with the MH orbital forcing. The simulated last glacial maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) to pre-industrial change in global mean temperature ranges between 3 and 7°C in PMIP1 and PMIP2 model runs, similar to the range of temperature change expected from a quadrupling of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in the CMIP simulations. Both LGM and future climate simulations are associated with a polar amplification of climate change. The range of glacial polar amplification in Greenland is strongly dependent on the ice sheet elevation changes prescribed to the climate models. All PMIP2 simulations systematically underestimate the reconstructed glacial–interglacial Greenland temperature change, while some of the simulations do capture the reconstructed glacial–interglacial Antarctic temperature change. Uncertainties in the prescribed central ice cap elevation cannot account for the temperature change underestimation by climate models. The variety of climate model sensitivities enables the exploration of the relative changes in polar temperature with respect to changes in global temperatures. Simulated changes of polar temperatures are strongly related to changes in simulated global temperatures for both future and LGM climates, confirming that ice-core-based reconstructions provide quantitative insights on global climate changes. An erratum to this article can be found at     

High-resolution simulations of global climate, part 2: effects of increased greenhouse cases

We report results from the highest-resolution simulations of global warming yet performed with an atmospheric general circulation model. We compare the climatic response to increased greenhouse gases of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) climate model, CCM3, at T42 and T170 resolutions (horizontal grid spacing of 300 and 75 km respectively). All simulations use prescribed sea surface temperatures (SST). Simulations of the climate of 2100 ad use SSTs based on those from NCAR coupled model, Climate System Model (CSM). We find that the global climate sensitivity and large-scale patterns of climate change are similar at T42 and T170. However, there are important regional scale differences that arise due to better representation of topography and other factors at high resolution. Caution should be exercised in interpreting specific features in our results both because we have performed climate simulations using a single atmospheric general circulation model and because we used with prescribed sea surface temperatures rather than interactive ocean and sea-ice models.     

The last glacial cycle: transient simulations with an AOGCM

A number of transient climate runs simulating the last 120?kyr have been carried out using FAMOUS, a fast atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). This is the first time such experiments have been done with a full AOGCM, providing a three-dimensional simulation of both atmosphere and ocean over this period. Our simulation thus includes internally generated temporal variability over periods from days to millennia, and physical, detailed representations of important processes such as clouds and precipitation. Although the model is fast, computational restrictions mean that the rate of change of the forcings has been increased by a factor of 10, making each experiment 12?kyr long. Atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), northern hemisphere ice sheets and variations in solar radiation arising from changes in the Earth’s orbit are treated as forcing factors, and are applied either separately or combined in different experiments. The long-term temperature changes on Antarctica match well with reconstructions derived from ice-core data, as does variability on timescales longer than 10 kyr. Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) cooling on Greenland is reasonably well simulated, although our simulations, which lack ice-sheet meltwater forcing, do not reproduce the abrupt, millennial scale climate shifts seen in northern hemisphere climate proxies or their slower southern hemisphere counterparts. The spatial pattern of sea surface cooling at the LGM matches proxy reconstructions reasonably well. There is significant anti-correlated variability in the strengths of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) on timescales greater than 10?kyr in our experiments. We find that GHG forcing weakens the AMOC and strengthens the ACC, whilst the presence of northern hemisphere ice-sheets strengthens the AMOC and weakens the ACC. The structure of the AMOC at the LGM is found to be sensitive to the details of the ice-sheet reconstruction used. The precessional component of the orbital forcing induces ~20?kyr oscillations in the AMOC and ACC, whose amplitude is mediated by changes in the eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit. These forcing influences combine, to first order, in a linear fashion to produce the mean climate and ocean variability seen in the run with all forcings.     

Tropical paleoclimates at the Last Glacial Maximum: comparison of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) simulations and paleodata

 Seventeen simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate have been performed using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) in the framework of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). These simulations use the boundary conditions for CO₂, insolation and ice-sheets; surface temperatures (SSTs) are either (a) prescribed using CLIMAP data set (eight models) or (b) computed by coupling the AGCM with a slab ocean (nine models). The present-day (PD) tropical climate is correctly depicted by all the models, except the coarser resolution models, and the simulated geographical distribution of annual mean temperature is in good agreement with climatology. Tropical cooling at the LGM is less than at middle and high latitudes, but greatly exceeds the PD temperature variability. The LGM simulations with prescribed SSTs underestimate the observed temperature changes except over equatorial Africa where the models produce a temperature decrease consistent with the data. Our results confirm previous analyses showing that CLIMAP (1981) SSTs only produce a weak terrestrial cooling. When SSTs are computed, the models depict a cooling over the Pacific and Indian oceans in contrast with CLIMAP and most models produce cooler temperatures over land. Moreover four of the nine simulations, produce a cooling in good agreement with terrestrial data. Two of these model results over ocean are consistent with new SST reconstructions whereas two models simulate a homogeneous cooling. Finally, the LGM aridity inferred for most of the tropics from the data, is globally reproduced by the models with a strong underestimation for models using computed SSTs. Received: 9 September 1998 / Accepted: 18 March 1999     

Simulation and Improvements of Oceanic Circulation and Sea Ice by the Coupled Climate System Model FGOALS-f3-L

This study documents simulated oceanic circulations and sea ice by the coupled climate system model FGOALS-f3-L developed at the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, under historical forcing from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). FGOALS-f3-L reproduces the fundamental features of global oceanic circulations, such as sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), mixed layer depth (MLD), vertical temperature and salinity, and meridional overturning circulations. There are notable improvements compared with the previous version, FGOALS-s2, such as a reduction in warm SST biases near the western and eastern boundaries of oceans and salty SSS biases in the tropical western Atlantic and eastern boundaries, and a mitigation of deep MLD biases at high latitudes. However, several obvious biases remain. The most significant biases include cold SST biases in the northwestern Pacific (over 4°C), freshwater SSS biases and deep MLD biases in the subtropics, and temperature and salinity biases in deep ocean at high latitudes. The simulated sea ice shows a reasonable distribution but stronger seasonal cycle than observed. The spatial patterns of sea ice are more realistic in FGOALS-f3-L than its previous version because the latitude–longitude grid is replaced with a tripolar grid in the ocean and sea ice model. The most significant biases are the overestimated sea ice and underestimated SSS in the Labrador Sea and Barents Sea, which are related to the shallower MLD and weaker vertical mixing.