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1.
分析了GPS相对定位中对流层折射的特点,概述了目前所采用的几种确定性参数对流层折射估计和随机过程参数对流层折射估计方法。根据实测数据处理结果,分析比较了几种确定性模型和随机过程模型对GPS相对定位精度的改善作用。结果表明:对流层折射的多参数确定性模型和随机参数模型对基线分量的重复性,特别是高程分量的重复性有明显改善;在大多数情况下,尤以随机参数模型为佳,其垂直分量的重复性精度较单参数模型可提高一倍左右。  相似文献   

2.
研究如何在土地利用变化模拟过程中更为科学、客观地设置模型参数,对于避免复杂模型由于参数设置不当导致模拟效果不佳的问题具有重要意义。本文通过耦合进化算法(Evolutionary Algorithm,EA)与FLUS模型,构建了具有参数寻优功能的EA-FLUS模型。该模型首先通过进化策略对FLUS模型中人工神经网络模型的参数进行寻优,以提升对各土地利用类型出现概率分布的预测准确率,在此基础上结合地理分区,利用带精英策略的遗传算法与进化策略的组合对FLUS模型中元胞自动机模型的参数进行调整,以提升模拟精度。在实证研究阶段,本文以桂林市为实验区,通过对土地利用变化进行分区模拟来分析EA-FLUS模型的改进效果,此外还设置了自然发展、耕地保护、生态优先3种情景来模拟桂林市2020—2030年的土地利用变化。结果表明:(1)进化算法对参数的寻优结果相比于基于经验以及土地利用变化历史特征的参数设置,更加贴近实验区的政策导向,更能体现各土地利用类型在不同区域间多样的发展趋势;(2) EA-FLUS模型相较于FLUS模型,在加入地理分区的土地利用变化模拟中更具优势,其模拟结果总体精度、Kappa系数、...  相似文献   

3.
WGS-84与北京54坐标的转换问题   总被引:53,自引:8,他引:45  
GPS测量得到的是WGS-84中的地心空间直角坐标,而工程施工中通常使用地方独立坐标系,要求得到地方平面坐标。如何实现两者的转换,一直是工程施工中关心的热点问题。介绍了从GPS定位结果至平面坐标的两种转换模型。平面转换模型原理简单,数值稳定可靠,但只适用于小范围的GPS测量;空间转换模型可用于大范围GPS测量,按实际情况又分为7参数转换和3参数转换两种。鉴于54坐标点的大地高通常不能精确得知,对这两种转换方法得到的平面坐标的精度进行了比较,得出大地高精度主要表现为对高程的影响,对平面坐标影响较小的结论。此外,还讨论了7参数与3参数模型对转换结果的影响。  相似文献   

4.
针对载噪比和码/载波分歧监测量在信号质量监测(SQM)过程中出现的非高斯性导致阈值模型过于保守的问题,提出一种基于稳定分布的SQM监测量参数阈值算法.首先给出2种监测量基于高斯分布的阈值模型,然后推导基于稳定分布的监测量阈值模型,最后通过实测数据对稳定分布的阈值算法进行评估与验证.结果表明,稳定分布可更加准确地描述载噪...  相似文献   

5.
利用西宁CINRAD/CD多普勒天气雷达资料及自动站观测数据等从影响降水的主要因子方面探讨了2011年7月2日晚青海互助县一次局地强降水的成因,结果表明:多单体强回波带的活动是造成互助短时强降水的主要原因;速度图上强的辐合和逆风区是预报强降水的关键因子;垂直风廓线图上强烈的垂直风切变是不稳定能量积聚的表现,与强降水联系紧密;垂直累计液态含水量(VIL)和回波顶高也能为强降水预报提供有效信息。  相似文献   

6.
半参数回归与平差模型   总被引:12,自引:5,他引:7  
从数据处理几种回归模型出发,对参数、非参数、半参数回归模型进行了讨论,指出了它们的适用前提条件。论证了半参数回归模型的最小二乘核估计与附加系统参数平差、补偿最小二乘准则与最小二乘配置之间的联系与区别,阐述了半参数回归估计在测量平差中的应用前景。  相似文献   

7.
用地基GPS资料分析大气可降水汽总量   总被引:16,自引:5,他引:11  
利用“中国地壳运动监测网络”和三峡监测网的地基GPS资料,通过Bernese软件以及根据Bevis等和Rocken等水汽解算原理编制的水汽解算软件。获得了武汉、巴东、兴山、泸州等长江流域测站大气可降水汽总量分布和时间间隔为2小时的GPS遥感大气可降水汽序列,并与站点雨量及区域面雨量进行对比分析,结果表明:地基GPS遥感水汽量变化与地面降水有很好的相关性。而且GPS遥感水汽变化序列峰值对应于强降水提前了8~22小时。有助于强降水特别是突发性强降水的预测;多个站点的GPS遥感水汽总量联合分析,对于区域水汽总量变化研究有一定意义。  相似文献   

8.
林木冠层光合有效辐射分布模拟的研究   总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2  
简述了冠层辐射分布的常用研究方法,介绍了光线跟踪技术的原理及其在辐射传播中的应用。针对树木模型提出正向光线跟踪的辐射传输模型,并详细阐述了模型假设、处理流程与主要算法。该模型针对光合有效辐射在树木冠层中的传输过程,采用正向光线跟踪的方法进行模拟,最后利用HSV与RGB颜色空间转换的特殊方法,直观表达了冠层辐射分布结果。在叶片光学特征分析的基础上,将该模型应用于林木冠层PAR分布模拟中,以得到冠层的反射率、透射率和吸收率等重要参数。结果表明,模拟数据与实测数据偏差不大,验证了正向光线跟踪的辐射传输模拟是有效的。  相似文献   

9.
 细粒子气溶胶物理和光学参数定量卫星遥感反演一直是环境和气候领域研究人员关注的重要课题。气溶胶参数卫星业务遥感产品主要是反演气溶胶光学厚度,它体现大气中气溶胶总含量的信息,而获取气溶胶谱分布函数有助于进一步了解气溶胶物理特性,并提高气溶胶其他参数的遥感探测精度。目前,陆地气溶胶卫星反演面临两个关键问题:一是气溶胶模式;二是地表反射贡献的去除,偏振遥感在这两方面有其独有的优势。本文以多角度偏振方法,采用RT3辐射传输模型建立矢量查找表,利用法国PARASOL探测器一级数据反演了京津唐地区的细粒子气溶胶光学厚度和谱分布参数,并使用AERONET地基观测数据对反演结果进行验证,结果表明:偏振方法能较高精度地实现细粒子气溶胶光学厚度反演,而谱分布的反演还需进一步改进。  相似文献   

10.
中国气温与降水的时空变化趋势分析   总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6  
如何对离散分布的气象台站观测数据进行高精度曲面模拟,为生态系统及服务功能时空变化趋势模拟及其综合评估提供高质量、高分辨率的空间气候数据,以满足栅格层次上的生态系统过程模型、生态系统格局模型及生态系统综合评估模型的参数需求,一直是存于生态学界的难点问题.在对全国1964一2007年的752个气象台站长期观测的气温和降水数...  相似文献   

11.
Rainfall erosivity in Tibet from 2000 to 2OlO was estimated based on simplified erosion prediction model using daily rainfall data derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Misssion (TRMM) 3B42 rainfall measurement algorithm. Semi- monthly erosive rainfall and rainfall erosivity were validated using weather station data. The spatial distribution of annual rainfall erosivity as well as its seasonal and annual variation in Tibet was also examined. Results showed that TRMM 3B42 data could serve as an alternative data source to estimate rainfall erosivity in the area where only data from sparsely distributed weather stations are available. The spatial distribution of rainfall erosivity in Tibet generally resembles the distribution of multi-year average of annual rainfall. Annual rainfall erosivity in Tibet decreased from the southeast to the northwest. The concentration degree of rainfall erosivity shows an increasing trend from the southeast to the northwest. High rainfall erosivity accompanies low rainfall erosivity concentration degree and vice versa. Rainfall erosivity increased in the middle and western Tibet and decreased in the southeastern Tibet during the 11 years of this study.  相似文献   

12.
降雨对体应变的干扰   总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0  
通过对Sacks体应变与气压、水位及降雨资料的综合对比分析,论述了降雨对体应变月变和日变的干扰作用,并探讨了干扰产生的物理机制和消除干扰的方法。  相似文献   

13.
西藏浅层地温气候特征分析及与降水的关系   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
选择了西藏地区建站早、有代表性的15个站1961~1996年逐月10cm、20cm、40cm三个层次的地温资料以及月降水量资料。运用EOF方法分析了各层地温的时空特征,并对不同时段的地温场和降水场进行SVD分解,并讨论了前期地温变化,尤其是10cm地温变化与我区降水之间的关系。分析表明,浅层地温最高值雅鲁藏布江中游地区出现在6月,其它各地一般出现在7月,最低值全区均出现在1月。地温年较差雅鲁藏布江中游地区最小,林芝、昌都次之,阿里地区最大。雅鲁藏布江中游大部分地区近36年浅层地温呈现上升趋势,且冬春季升温幅度较汛期要高。阿里、昌都及林芝变化则不明显。地温阿里地区最低,低值中心靠近改则,昌都的西北部和南部为两个次低值区;雅江一线、东南部地温较高,最高值中心在察隅,次高值在泽当~林芝的沿江地区。10、20、40cm地温年变化和冬春季、汛期变化存在准3年或准6年的周期性规律。前期地温场变化,特别是10cm地温变化与降水有着密切的联系。大部分地区,特别是雅江中游地区和阿里地区、冬春季地温偏高(低),汛期降水偏少(多),两者间存在明显的反位相关系  相似文献   

14.
Satellite-based products with high spatial and temporal resolution provide useful precipitation information for data-sparse or ungauged large-scale watersheds. In the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin, rainfall stations are sparse and unevenly distributed, and the transboundary characteristic makes the collection of precipitation data more difficult, which has restricted hydrological processes simulation. In this study, daily precipitation data from four datasets(gauge observations, inverse distance weighted(IDW) data, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) estimates, and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations(CHIRPS) estimates), were applied to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model, and then their capability for hydrological simulation in the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin were examined. TRMM and CHIRPS data showed good performances on precipitation estimation in the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin, with the better performance for TRMM product. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE) values of gauge, IDW, TRMM, and CHIRPS simulations during the calibration period were 0.87, 0.86, 0.95, and 0.93 for monthly flow, respectively, and those for daily flow were 0.75, 0.77, 0.86, and 0.84, respectively. TRMM and CHIRPS data were superior to rain gauge and IDW data for driving the hydrological model, and TRMM data produced the best simulation performance. Satellite-based precipitation estimates could be suitable data sources when simulating hydrological processes for large data-poor or ungauged watersheds, especially in international river basins for which precipitation observations are difficult to collect. CHIRPS data provide long precipitation time series from 1981 to near present and thus could be used as an alternative precipitation input for hydrological simulation, especially for the period without TRMM data. For satellite-based precipitation products, the differences in the occurrence frequencies and amounts of precipitation with different intensities would affect simulation results of water balance components, which should be comprehensively considered in water resources estimation and planning.  相似文献   

15.
The estimation of precipitation quantiles has always been an area of great importance to meteorologists, hydrologists, planners and managers of hydrotechnical infrastructures. In many cases, it is necessary to estimate the values relating to extreme events for the sites where there is little or no measurement, as well as their return periods. A statistical approach is the most used in such cases. It aims to find the probability distribution that best fits the maximum daily rainfall values. In our study, 231 rainfall stations were used to regionalize and find the best distribution for modeling the maximum daily rainfall in Northern Algeria. The L-moments method was used to perform a regionalization based on discordance criteria and homogeneity test. It gave rise to twelve homogeneous regions in terms of LCoefficient of variation(L-CV), L-Skewness(L-CS) and L-Kurtosis(L-CK). This same technique allowed us to select the regional probability distribution for each group using the Z statistic. The generalized extreme values distribution(GEV) was selected to model the maximum daily rainfall of 10 groups located in the north of the steppe region and the generalized logistic distribution(GLO) for groups representing the steppes of Central and Western Algeria. The study of uncertainty by the bias and RMSE showed that the regional approach is acceptable. We have also developed maximum daily rainfall maps for 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years return periods. We relied on a network of 255 rainfall stations. The spatial variability of quantiles was evaluated by semi-variograms. All rainfall frequency models have a spatial dependence with an exponential model adjusted to the experimental semi-variograms. The parameters of the fitted semi-variogram for different return periods are similar, throughout, while the nugget is more important for high return periods. Maximum daily rainfall increases from South to North and from West to East, and is more significant in the coastal areas of eastern Algeria where it exceeds 170 mm for a return period of 100 years. However, it does not exceed 50 mm in the highlands of the west.  相似文献   

16.
?о???2003??2006???????????Sacks????????????峱??????????????????????????峱??????????????????????仯??????????????????????????????????????????????????0.533??????亯??????????????????????????????????????????????仯????????????????????????????????????????????????????6.28??10-11/Pa??????亯?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????Ч????£????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????й??  相似文献   

17.
An increasing number of marine structures have been built for coastal protection and marine development in recent years,and wind,which is crucial to marine structures,should be analyzed.Therefore,typhoon frequency,wind climate,wind energy assess-ment,and extreme wind speed in the South China Sea(SCS)are investigated in detail in this study.The data are obtained from the China Meteorological Administration,the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts,and the National Centers for Envi-ronmental Prediction.The offshore wind energy potential is analyzed at five sites near the coast.The spatial and monthly frequencies of tropical cyclones for different intensity categories are analyzed.The extreme wind speed is fitted by five distribution models,and the generalized extreme value(GEV)distribution is selected as the most suitable function according to the goodness of fit.The spa-tial distributions of extreme wind speeds in the SCS are plotted on the basis of the GEV distribution and ERA5 data sets.The influ-ences of the distribution models and data sets on the calculated results are discussed.Moreover,the monthly extreme wind speed and comparison with the results of previous studies are analyzed.This study provides a reference for the design of wind turbines.  相似文献   

18.
针对现有暴雨型洪涝灾害预警方法时效性差的问题,提出了一种接入实时降雨数据的暴雨型洪涝灾害临灾预警方法。根据时序分析模型由历史降雨数据和实时降雨数据分析识别异常降雨,并将异常降雨、地形起伏、高程和河网因素作为影响因子,构建暴雨型洪涝灾害风险指数,以"日"为时间尺度进行短时暴雨型洪涝灾害风险分析。从异常降雨致灾角度出发,根据降雨的异常程度将暴雨型洪涝灾害风险等级划分为无风险、低风险、中风险、中高风险和高风险5个等级,进而实现临灾预警,为防灾减灾提供一定的参考信息。以广东省清远市2014年5月的洪涝灾害为例,接入5月21日至5月26日期间逐日降雨量数据,实现了临灾风险分析。实验结果表明,六日内清远市阳山县中下区域发生暴雨洪涝灾害的风险较大,与实际灾情相吻合,达到了较好的预警效果。  相似文献   

19.
近47年白银市气候变化及其对农业生产的影响分析   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
利用白银市4个代表站逐日平均气温、逐日地面最低温度,分别得到≥0℃初终日期、初终霜冻日期以及利用逐月平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温和逐月降水资料,对白银市近47a的气候变化特征进行分析,同时分析了气候变化对农业生产的影响,为充分利用变化了的农业气候资源,减少不利因素带来的影响提出了对策和建议。  相似文献   

20.
通过统计福建省永安市1958—2007年逐日雷暴观测资料,找出雷暴发生时空分布、年际、月际和日变化特征。结果表明:永安市雷暴日50年平均68.12日,年际变化呈波动减少趋势,3—9月是雷暴发生的高发期,占全年雷暴的95.3%,月际雷暴发生次数呈单峰型特征,峰值出现在8月,16—17时是一天中发生雷暴的最高期,西南方向发生的雷暴略多于其它方向。  相似文献   

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